First time viewer and now a subscriber. I really appreciate the clear, concise analysis and observations. In contrast to other sources such as broadcast news and some sensationalist RUclips channels, this is clearer and more concise information, by far
If you still have power and are in the path of the storm, lower your fridge and freezer to their coldest settings. This will prevent your food from going bad for substantially longer if/when you lose power.
Put everything in garbage bags and tie them shut-so tight that nothing will leak out. Your insurance company will not replace the fridge if it could be cleaned (and those are in short supply anyway). If you lose power for a long time, all you need to do is grab the bags and chuck them. If the bag is tight, no mystery fluids will seep into crevices. If you lose power for just a little while, when it’s over you can pull everything out and go on with your life.
Levi, while I appreciate the “forecasting” aspect is now over, if you happen to see this comment and have a moment to record a post-mortem type discussion, I would really like to hear your thoughts and why the European model, and even the UK Met, was consistently forecasting the more southerly landfall than the GFS and the HWRF for many days out which has now proved to be spot on. Was it the dipping cold front, the effects of the subtropical jet, or something else that the Euro models weight more than the GFS model?
Yes, I mentioned the same thing in Tuesday's comments. Those blue line on his Global Model, UKMI, UKXI, EGR have been almost on point thru all of Ian. They have been consistently in the area from Bradenton down to Charlotte Harbor.
While the Euro was eventually correct with its landfall prediction, (from memory) the actual path it took through the Caribbean, the crossing point in Cuba, and the overall intensity seems to me like it was more accurate on the GFS than the Euro. There's more to considering the accuracy of a model than _just_ looking at the eventual landfall, I think.
@@preachey Levi would have to look at model runs then. But I thought the reason the Euro had landfall so accurate was it had crossing Cuba about where it did (much further E than the GFS).
@@preachey I agree and it upsets me a bit that that most of the models the news media feeds the public is mostly based on the Euro and yet as Atlantic storms approach the peninsula from the south, the GFS has been accurate every time. This causes people who think it will not hit them be very unprepared when the change occurs. I do not blame the media for that. People are response for their own actions but the media should be not telling people wheee a storm is going to hit 5 days out
Thank you Dr. Levi. Your faithful, thoughtful and accurate videos helped us prepare and prevail with far less damage than many others. Prayers and all good thoughts to the people and homes damaged by Ian.
Levi is the best! Love how he tells us there isn't much forecasting left to do. Tune into your local news to stay informed. So different from media outlets that use fear to keep viewers from changing channels.
GREAT content sir! By far the best video and audio analysis of the storm.......No silly photos of talking Weather Channel dudes getting clipped by trees and falling down......just REAL weather.................Thanks!
What a great friend to Florida you are! God Bless You for sharing all this knowledge. As a result, you have reduced my storm anxiety compared to past hurricanes- Hurricane David 1979 - was my first, living in east central FL.
Thank you for your dedication, Dr Cowan. Can hear the sadness in your voice as you know the devastating effects this storm will likely leave in it's wake. Your updates are much appreciated from N Florida.
Levi, I remember making this same point during Michael. Why do these models keep missing the rapid intensification we continue to see over and over and over again once storms emerge into the warm gulf water? We should have known the minute it came off of Cuba further east then originally planned this was going to be real bad, yet all the forecasting wanted to lean on the farther north models with more sheer. I'm not a profit, but when I can look at this system 3 days ago and tell my wife, "Cat 4 to Cat 5 further south then expected and reemerge on the other side with potential to strengthen", why do the models keep missing it? I guess we were technically still within the fringes of the "cone", but come on. It's simply unacceptable that the forecasting community keeps missing these forecasts by 1 to 2 CAT levels.
98 mph gust recorded in Sanibel confirmed by the NHC, one would assume they are getting more then that being in the eyewall. The backside of the eye looks even stronger as the leading edge is slightly eroded.
In Bonita Springs FL. Lost power at noon, gusts feel like 50-60 mph, little rain, compared to last night . Most are without power in many counties but so far, not too devastating. I appreciate this channel without the hype language.
These videos were so much better and help for me (and hopefully you) to prepare. Not going to lie... I think I'll probably have to go to work on Friday but I'm even glad to be informed...I was able to get all the laundry done! Better safe than sorry. The power loss was the worse. We moved from up north and 1 year later Irma came. Glad we kept the boards!
Levi thank you for the time you put into your website & these videos. Your storm analysis is always clear, concise & easy for the average person to understand without drama & hype. I live near Tampa & have followed your site for several years. Once again the Tampa coastal areas experienced reverse surge today, emptying the bay & ICW - similar to Irma. Would be interested in your explanation of this phenomenon. Thank you! #FloridaStrong
Living in South Louisiana, I have those Blue Ice packs frozen in my freezer so in the event of losing power I will put some in the fridge section and also the freezer area.
If you might lose power from Ian- Put everything in your refrigerator and freezer in garbage bags and tie them shut-so tight that nothing will leak out. Your insurance company will not replace the fridge if it could be cleaned (and those are in short supply anyway). If you lose power for a long time, all you need to do is grab the bags and chuck them. If the bag is tight, no mystery fluids will seep into crevices. If you lose power for just a little while, when it’s over you can pull everything out and go on with your life.
I practically disassembled my refrigerator last year after Ida, tracking down the liquids that had leaked out, but we didn’t take the time to do this before we evacuated.
I've never seen so many watches and warnings in place simultaneously across the US Southeast (5:15). Cuba *still* under a tropical storm warning. The scale of this thing. EDIT: Super informative update as always, thank you!
Same here… I work offshore and have seen the devastation wreaked upon Grand Isle and Port Fourchon, areas that are predominately camps/vacation homes and industrial areas. It’s unbelievable.
This is a nightmare. For several days prior, all esteemed guidance, except UKMET, did not hint at this area being hit. All models showed the hurricane passing by well offshore. We might assume the majority of these ~1 milion people did nothing to prepare. Now they have a virtual Cat5 on thier front porch. Godspeed SW Florida... from your neighbor in St. Pete.
All "esteemed guidance" clearly and plainly indicated a large range of potential landfall locations that included this area. It's on you that you took the center path as the only path.
@@mr.g937 "It's on me"... are you 12 years old? Your writing and thought process seems to say so. But if you are a grown up writing such garbage, try developing yourself into something more than an idiot.
@@mr.g937 The cone two days before landfall was 50 miles off the entire west Florida coast, headed to the panhandle. If you think this is good weather prediction, if you think this was adequate warning to the poor souls who got hit, you are a... well you know.
Levi, thank you for working assiduously around the clock to deliver this material. I am a former Florida resident with many friends that are going to be affected, does anyone know of how I can get connected with organizations that assist with the cleanups?
I'm in Tampa and I'm so glad for these videos bc they're still fear mongering on the news. Telling us Tampa is going to be hit w category 5. From these videos I thought it would probably hit Ft Myers. We still boarded up the house and got ready but these videos aren't lying to us for clicks.
You said that there is an input of drier air coming into the storm center. Wouldn't that normally affect the intensification of a hurricane? If Ian intensified like this with dry air, what would happen if there was ideal conditions.
Since I live in Lake Mary, I was mostly concerned about it crossing and driving right over us. For the last two days everything seems to say it’s trending South to the point where the landfall is a good bit south of Tampa where it was said to be crossing North of there for days. It seems to me that everything is pointing to a south based storm to the point where I bet it moves into the Atlantic closer to Melbourne
Thank you for the best information that I have found on the internet. Question: is it good to compare the buoys (wind speed) with what is showing on NOAA?
It will. It drops to a tropical storm remember near Orlando so south side is dry air and sheared. Depends which path it takes, but the shear and dry air will definitely have some effect on a weaker storm.
Hi Dr. Cowan. I saw in satellite imagery, Ian emitting a shockwave when it rapidly intensified in the early morning hours. Where is the best place to find this type of satellite data? I was at work checking on the situation and saw the shockwave on satellite, but would like to capture it for educational purposes. Thanks as always!
Never seen a hurricane lower in strength before hitting. Why was everyone so conservative with their predictions on this storm? Old timer Floridians called this as a cat4 on Tampa when it was below Cuba.
i think cat 5 status should begin at 150mph.. hurricanes often max at 155 or so. hence cat 5s are so rare..... cause super typhoons begin at 150mph...i mean a 155 mph storm is a common occurrance compared to the Rare as heck 160mph hurricane... im sure u noticed it too levi. on another note do you agree or disagree with cat 5 should begin at 150 mph instead of 157mph
![[Monday] Hurricane Ian Strengthening as it Tracks toward Cuba; Life-Threatening Conditions Expected](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/nDiDdBF696c/mqdefault.jpg)
![[Monday] Hurricane Ian Strengthening as it Tracks toward Cuba; Life-Threatening Conditions Expected](/img/tr.png)
![Blox Fruits Dragon Rework Update [Full Stream]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EqDAp8udhm0/mqdefault.jpg)
![[Saturday Evening] TD9 gets named Ian; Significant Hurricane Expected to impact Caribbean and U.S.](/img/1.gif)
First time viewer and now a subscriber. I really appreciate the clear, concise analysis and observations. In contrast to other sources such as broadcast news and some sensationalist RUclips channels, this is clearer and more concise information, by far
If you still have power and are in the path of the storm, lower your fridge and freezer to their coldest settings. This will prevent your food from going bad for substantially longer if/when you lose power.
Put everything in garbage bags and tie them shut-so tight that nothing will leak out. Your insurance company will not replace the fridge if it could be cleaned (and those are in short supply anyway).
If you lose power for a long time, all you need to do is grab the bags and chuck them. If the bag is tight, no mystery fluids will seep into crevices.
If you lose power for just a little while, when it’s over you can pull everything out and go on with your life.
Yes, and make more ice if you can, while you can.
Freeze gallons of water then place in the fridge if you loose power.
Try to cook what you can. Cooked food can be shared with neighbors.
@@jharvey9898 Yes that's a great option. Or if possible arrange a barbecue/block party at someone's house who has a propane/charcoal grill.
Levi, while I appreciate the “forecasting” aspect is now over, if you happen to see this comment and have a moment to record a post-mortem type discussion, I would really like to hear your thoughts and why the European model, and even the UK Met, was consistently forecasting the more southerly landfall than the GFS and the HWRF for many days out which has now proved to be spot on. Was it the dipping cold front, the effects of the subtropical jet, or something else that the Euro models weight more than the GFS model?
Great question and thank you for asking it
Yes, I mentioned the same thing in Tuesday's comments. Those blue line on his Global Model, UKMI, UKXI, EGR have been almost on point thru all of Ian. They have been consistently in the area from Bradenton down to Charlotte Harbor.
While the Euro was eventually correct with its landfall prediction, (from memory) the actual path it took through the Caribbean, the crossing point in Cuba, and the overall intensity seems to me like it was more accurate on the GFS than the Euro. There's more to considering the accuracy of a model than _just_ looking at the eventual landfall, I think.
@@preachey Levi would have to look at model runs then. But I thought the reason the Euro had landfall so accurate was it had crossing Cuba about where it did (much further E than the GFS).
@@preachey I agree and it upsets me a bit that that most of the models the news media feeds the public is mostly based on the Euro and yet as Atlantic storms approach the peninsula from the south, the GFS has been accurate every time. This causes people who think it will not hit them be very unprepared when the change occurs. I do not blame the media for that. People are response for their own actions but the media should be not telling people wheee a storm is going to hit 5 days out
Always appreciate your updates! Thanks for everything from Orlando, FL. About to hunker down with all of our supplies and preparations.
Keep safe.
Power and water will be out for days. Better to evac to the north west for a few days.........
Thank you Dr. Levi.
Your faithful, thoughtful and accurate videos helped us prepare and prevail with far less damage than many others.
Prayers and all good thoughts to the people and homes damaged by Ian.
Levi youtube took your super thanks button away 😢. As a Florida man from tampa I can’t thank you enough for all you do.
Thank you for everything you do for us for FREE Levi.
Keep safe.
Levi is the best! Love how he tells us there isn't much forecasting left to do. Tune into your local news to stay informed. So different from media outlets that use fear to keep viewers from changing channels.
GREAT content sir! By far the best video and audio analysis of the storm.......No silly photos of talking Weather Channel dudes getting clipped by trees and falling down......just REAL weather.................Thanks!
What a great friend to Florida you are! God Bless You for sharing all this knowledge. As a result, you have reduced my storm anxiety compared to past hurricanes- Hurricane David 1979 - was my first, living in east central FL.
Thank you for keeping us informed and helping people find safety. Your information is invaluable to us.
Thank you for your dedication, Dr Cowan. Can hear the sadness in your voice as you know the devastating effects this storm will likely leave in it's wake. Your updates are much appreciated from N Florida.
This is absolutely the best tropical weather analysis on social media; done with clarity, accuracy, and with tact. Well done, Dr. Cowan.
Thank you for all that you do, it's 2:00 in Sarasota my power is on, for now
Seriously Levi, I don't know what we would do without you. Don't ever think about stopping your updates. We need you!
As a Floridian I always look to your videos for a good breakdown of the forecast. You are awesome!
Levi, I remember making this same point during Michael. Why do these models keep missing the rapid intensification we continue to see over and over and over again once storms emerge into the warm gulf water? We should have known the minute it came off of Cuba further east then originally planned this was going to be real bad, yet all the forecasting wanted to lean on the farther north models with more sheer. I'm not a profit, but when I can look at this system 3 days ago and tell my wife, "Cat 4 to Cat 5 further south then expected and reemerge on the other side with potential to strengthen", why do the models keep missing it? I guess we were technically still within the fringes of the "cone", but come on. It's simply unacceptable that the forecasting community keeps missing these forecasts by 1 to 2 CAT levels.
It’s interesting to see how poorly the models did for this storm. I will be curious to see how they develop in the coming years.
98 mph gust recorded in Sanibel confirmed by the NHC, one would assume they are getting more then that being in the eyewall. The backside of the eye looks even stronger as the leading edge is slightly eroded.
I love Sanibel.. we’ve been going since ‘95. 🥲 planning a trip in May. She’s taking a beating!! 😔🙏🏻 praying all stay safe. Dear Lord! 🙏🏻😔
In Bonita Springs FL. Lost power at noon, gusts feel like 50-60 mph, little rain, compared to last night . Most are without power in many counties but so far, not too devastating. I appreciate this channel without the hype language.
Yes due to that dry air and southerly shear he spoke of, the south of the storm should do better. Good luck and blessings.
Thank u Levi.
Tampa here.
These videos were so much better and help for me (and hopefully you) to prepare. Not going to lie... I think I'll probably have to go to work on Friday but I'm even glad to be informed...I was able to get all the laundry done! Better safe than sorry. The power loss was the worse. We moved from up north and 1 year later Irma came. Glad we kept the boards!
Thanks, Levi. Invaluable as always. Somehow we're avoiding this in Tallahassee but at the expense of the rest of Florida taking a much harder hit. 😟
Biggest eye i've seen for a while, no pun intented when taking about hurricanes.
As always, thank you. Watching closely from coastal SC
Levi thank you for the time you put into your website & these videos. Your storm analysis is always clear, concise & easy for the average person to understand without drama & hype. I live near Tampa & have followed your site for several years. Once again the Tampa coastal areas experienced reverse surge today, emptying the bay & ICW - similar to Irma. Would be interested in your explanation of this phenomenon. Thank you! #FloridaStrong
Thank you Levi. So appreciate you sharing your wisdom.💯
Thanks, watching from Fort Pierce Florida ⛆🌴
Living in South Louisiana, I have those Blue Ice packs frozen in my freezer so in the event of losing power I will put some in the fridge section and also the freezer area.
Thank you Levi.
You help so much give us all this information.
We appreciate you
Praying for all of Florida
Thanks for the coverage Levi, watching from Gainesville.
If you might lose power from Ian-
Put everything in your refrigerator and freezer in garbage bags and tie them shut-so tight that nothing will leak out. Your insurance company will not replace the fridge if it could be cleaned (and those are in short supply anyway).
If you lose power for a long time, all you need to do is grab the bags and chuck them. If the bag is tight, no mystery fluids will seep into crevices.
If you lose power for just a little while, when it’s over you can pull everything out and go on with your life.
I practically disassembled my refrigerator last year after Ida, tracking down the liquids that had leaked out, but we didn’t take the time to do this before we evacuated.
As always, thank you
Thanks for the clear update Dr. Levi. Grateful viewing from Kissimmee.
Best videos as always in the business
I know thousands of people will be affected by this storm, but what display of beauty and magnificence of the power of our God, be safe everybody
Thank you Dr. C!!👏👏👏
Thanks for your updates Levi!
Thank you Levi for all you always do brother!
"Donut of Extreme Wind" adding that one to Cone of Death.
I've never seen so many watches and warnings in place simultaneously across the US Southeast (5:15). Cuba *still* under a tropical storm warning. The scale of this thing.
EDIT: Super informative update as always, thank you!
Thanks again for such an informative video. All the best to those affected by Ian. Don't forget Puerto Rico.
Thank you from Venice FL.
Watching from Louisiana. My stomach hurts for them.
Same here… I work offshore and have seen the devastation wreaked upon Grand Isle and Port Fourchon, areas that are predominately camps/vacation homes and industrial areas. It’s unbelievable.
Thank YOU!!! I am in Sebring and have my windows/doors covered. Just a bit worried about tornadoes, we get those anyway, thanks again!
Thank you from Cape Coral!
Prayers for all 🙏🏻
Thanks, Levi. We really appreciate you here in Jax
Are we married there in Duval? I'm in Tampa Bay. :)
Just got a hurricane warning here in Charleston, SC. Be safe everyone!
"Ian is outperforming" Damn.
You are the best source. Thanks
Thank you brother. Really appreciate it. My prayers go out to my fellow Floridians in the path of the storm.
Thank you so much Levi.
Thank you Levi
Thank you, expert coverage with great delivery. 👍
This was a hell of a storm ... rode it out on the peace river .. woke alot of people up
Thank you Levi! Appreciate your dedication and thorough updates!
Thanks Levi for these videos, and easy to use website. Long time WU lurker living in Miami. Bless
Watching from Englewood, fl
Thank you so much for the amazing information throughout.
Can’t believe it’s been 10 months already.
Thank you Levi!!💜🌀🙏🙏🙏
Thank you
Thank you so much! Solid updates.
This is a nightmare. For several days prior, all esteemed guidance, except UKMET, did not hint at this area being hit. All models showed the hurricane passing by well offshore. We might assume the majority of these ~1 milion people did nothing to prepare.
Now they have a virtual Cat5 on thier front porch. Godspeed SW Florida... from your neighbor in St. Pete.
All "esteemed guidance" clearly and plainly indicated a large range of potential landfall locations that included this area. It's on you that you took the center path as the only path.
@@mr.g937 "It's on me"... are you 12 years old? Your writing and thought process seems to say so. But if you are a grown up writing such garbage, try developing yourself into something more than an idiot.
@@mr.g937 The cone two days before landfall was 50 miles off the entire west Florida coast, headed to the panhandle. If you think this is good weather prediction, if you think this was adequate warning to the poor souls who got hit, you are a... well you know.
@@user-cx2bk6pm2f I do not recall ever seeing any cone from the NHC consistent with what you describe. Do you have a link to that one?
Thanks Levi!
Levi, thank you for working assiduously around the clock to deliver this material. I am a former Florida resident with many friends that are going to be affected, does anyone know of how I can get connected with organizations that assist with the cleanups?
I'm waiting to hear from the Cajun Army. But they won't be out til the back end of this.
I'm in Tampa and I'm so glad for these videos bc they're still fear mongering on the news. Telling us Tampa is going to be hit w category 5. From these videos I thought it would probably hit Ft Myers. We still boarded up the house and got ready but these videos aren't lying to us for clicks.
How is Tampa right now? Y'all still good?
Thank you from Arcadia FL, looks like Charlie 2.0
You said that there is an input of drier air coming into the storm center. Wouldn't that normally affect the intensification of a hurricane? If Ian intensified like this with dry air, what would happen if there was ideal conditions.
The key is whether the dry air actually gets entrained fully into the storm core. In this case it only partially disrupted the eyewall before landfall
Let's floridians love your info keep it up
Thanks Levi you're the best!
Stay strong Florida, you got this.
Thanks for these videos
Winds hitting hard in Fort Myers rn.
Please on your next update, can you please talk a little bit more of central florida? Orange and Osceola County... thank you.
From Tampa. Seems like we avoided the worst part.
Is this hurricane starting to weaken yet? Question asked at 3:55
Since I live in Lake Mary, I was mostly concerned about it crossing and driving right over us. For the last two days everything seems to say it’s trending South to the point where the landfall is a good bit south of Tampa where it was said to be crossing North of there for days. It seems to me that everything is pointing to a south based storm to the point where I bet it moves into the Atlantic closer to Melbourne
Thank you for the best information that I have found on the internet. Question: is it good to compare the buoys (wind speed) with what is showing on NOAA?
I live in Broward County Florida and I'm fine.
Thank you for the update. 🙂 Prayers to the people that are in the direct path of this storm.
It’s my birthday today and my birthday gift is this hurricane
New subscriber here 😊
Prayers 🙏🙏🙏
thanks for the information
Good Job
Latest motion REALLY looks like it’s headed to Melbourne.
Ty Levi. This thing is SCARY
Merci beaucoup, Levi.
What about the possibility for a Brown Hurricane?
what are the chances the shear doesn't effect it . wondering for Orlando
It will. It drops to a tropical storm remember near Orlando so south side is dry air and sheared. Depends which path it takes, but the shear and dry air will definitely have some effect on a weaker storm.
I'd like to point out that the euro model was spectacularly wrong at almost every update. 👎
Ian reminds me a lot of how Irma looked when it hit in almost the same spot.
Hey there Punta gorda resident here. It’s not good. It’s not good at all
That "'donut" isn't 30 miles, it covers about a degree which would be closer to 70.
What is the page with the radar loop? He says something like, "Arkness and Baum's Page"?
If you search up Mark Nissenbaum radar you get the page :)
@@kachikachikingg Thank you :)
@@MonicaMovieStar Np!!
You save lives.
Hi Dr. Cowan. I saw in satellite imagery, Ian emitting a shockwave when it rapidly intensified in the early morning hours. Where is the best place to find this type of satellite data? I was at work checking on the situation and saw the shockwave on satellite, but would like to capture it for educational purposes. Thanks as always!
I actually plot a lot of satellite data here: www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/
@@Tropical-Tidbits Thank you so much! How far back in time does this data go?
Thanks Levi ….
Odd jog due east just like in Cuba.
Never seen a hurricane lower in strength before hitting. Why was everyone so conservative with their predictions on this storm? Old timer Floridians called this as a cat4 on Tampa when it was below Cuba.
Another life saving idea is fill your bath tub with water 💧 so in the event of losing city power you have drinking water, water to flush your toilet.
i think cat 5 status should begin at 150mph.. hurricanes often max at 155 or so. hence cat 5s are so rare..... cause super typhoons begin at 150mph...i mean a 155 mph storm is a common occurrance compared to the Rare as heck 160mph hurricane... im sure u noticed it too levi. on another note do you agree or disagree with cat 5 should begin at 150 mph instead of 157mph