The Nixon/Kissinger opening to China was not designed to create deocracy there but to isolate the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War. And it worked.
We have social credit here in the us too. It's called credit scores. Try to open a bank account with bad credit. I think I'm qualified to be a Chinese economics expert too.
@@thanhdiep59it’s not the same thing. A credit score will affect your ability to get a loan or credit card and it may affect the price of your car insurance. A credit score is also nothing to do with government. It’s entirely private enterprise. But your credit score rests entirely on your recorded use of credit products. The Chinese system is more pervasive. If you break certain laws your score would be negatively affected. If your score goes too low you are not allowed to buy plane tickets or high speed rail tickets. In a country like the uk that would be impossible as the railway company doesn’t even know the name of the passenger. In china obviously the passengers name is known as you cannot obtain a ticket without ID and the passenger’s right to purchase a ticket is controlled by the government through social credit. It’s just too much government control and honestly why do people put up with it.
its a time bomb, do you understand ? Cina make a blunder with their massive property and unpaid debt with so many country in Belt Road Megaproject... its very hard to reverse that
It's because China's economy is currently set to contract, and their GDP figures, unlike most of the rest of the world, is just published by the government, no real way to know if true or not. For example China measures real estate built as value, not the sale of it. Germany's GDP is -0.3 for 2023, considering it's the continuation of gas issue etc., it's actually "fine". Would expect slow growth next year, and maybe in 2/3 years it will probably grow properly again. And China's economy isn't that great based on their population, their own figures state $12.5k gdp per capita, Germany is 51k, US 70k.
One thing this program might have missed: Do we believe the economic numbers from the CCP? If China is becoming more authoritarian, wouldn't we expect them to overstate things?
100s of analysts from global banks, think tanks, IMF, World Bank etc watch china's data for a living. The numbers can never be 100% accurate. just like for any country but one can't fidge the number too much with that amount of eyes looking at them
There are literally 100s of global economists, academics, banks, think tanks etc who make a fulltime living dissecting the Chinese economy. No economic numbers can be 100% accurate for any country but it's not possible for Chinese numbers to deviate too much from real drivers of the economy. There are just too many eyes.
in india we have a similar problem some partys who cant promise any thing just promises to spend public money on free bies. free electricity free food free transport.
I can't trust even a word said by DW about China. If journalists are just part of the geopolitical game, we will depend in future on more reliable open sources from the internet. China needs to make some improvements in property and youth unemployment, but with the size of about 400 million middle income, China has far more leverage to play with. China is a sovereign country and doesn't need to serve any super power. On the other hand Germany will have to follow the US and even with decisions killing their own economy. Germany doesn't even have guts to tell the public who was behind the blast at Nordstream 2 pipe line.
“ultimately, these apartments *will* fill up" - why does he think that? When there are already an insanely over-abundance of apartments vs people + a shrinking population. Where will these imaginary people come from? The contrary... the population is shrinking, and more will become vacant over time.
The whole world is in economic woes from inflation, high interest, low employments, and recession.. how would any of these effect escapes any country, much less China?
I LOVE the comment (paraphrased) - If the west closes all its manufacturing and encourages China to build, build, build and make everything for us in the West - so that all of our money flows into China and makes them rich - THEN China will want to be a democratic capital led society !! BUT THAT'S not happening so WE need to change. Politicians get So high on their hubris. They pander & placate dictators in the hope they imagine the world like the West. Dictators simply have a different mindset focused 100% on themselves unlike democratic leaders who only focus 70% on themselves
What did your Democratic leader did for you using his 30% of focus...? Better pay? cheaper life? or More convinience city? 🤣 Think about it instead of buy everything your media tolde you.
Being an authoritarian leadership doesn't mean a dictatorship. You can't follow Joe Brandon that Xi is a dictator because China is a single party system or its election system is different from your country. Btw you don't accuse Vietnam a dictatorship because it's a communist system like China, do you??
@@TheKkpop1Vietnamese leadership is not as concentrated as in China but both countries are trying to impose party control at the expense of democracy, and in the case of China the Premier has no term limit. It appears that Vietnam is more of a party-led country. CCP says it has 'democratic dictatorship'.
Working with china directly is challenging from an economically persepctive. My sister worked in a company that is chinese owned as executive HR, but it was originally american. She says that american executives get burned out by the ways china runs the company. There is no creativity, there are no business risks. She ended up leaving that company because of how horrible the higher up positions are treated towards such a robotic economical force
The key is a political problem. A lot of economical problems mentioned here are not considered 'important' by the ruling party. Political stability triumphs all other issues, including economy.
@jordie4423 Of course it does concern the central government. But that was not my point. The party leader has the ultimate control on what is more important and choose the poison. Same to what happened in Russia and in China during COVID-19: People's power was/is weak in those countries.
You are stuck? There are literally hundreds of flights each day to all corners of the world. Just that you are NOT in China and probably not even Chinese.
This was interesting, but it seemed incredibly superficial. Nowhere was there any real discussion about the extent of the off balance sheet debt of local governments, or a serious attempt to address the extent to which the CCPs policies make their stated objective of moving to a domestic growth led model impossible. He did touch on the need to reform, but he superficially skimmed over it. Likewise he skimmed over the impact of the aging population. There is no effective safety net / pension system, and with very low incomes and with the incredibly rapidly aging population, increasing spending is really not an option. Also, most credible demographers seem to be acknowledging the population is 1.3 billion, not 1.4 billion, and it will fall to between 650 - 950 million by the end of this century. They have massively overbuilt residential and commercial property and it is a political imperative that they finish another 20-30 million units that buyers have already paid deposits on, and the population is is already in serious decline and it will rapidly decline for at least the next 80 years. Somehow this guy thinks the property market will stabilize in the next few years. In reality it seems like it might be held together in the short-term by government money, but once the 20-30 million units are finished, the property market seems more likely to being in a deeply depressed state for decades. Is he on some sort of hard drugs?
very good article bringing up att the big points and factors. even mentioned local goverments funding of public services by selling/ renting out land. which most news media forgets to mention.
If China figures out how to move foods and other consumer goods to all parts of their country and other countries, they will be the largest economy in the world as we’ve never seen before!
Just a technical suggestion, being a television technician: that you need to increase overhead direct key lighting on the shorter side of their faces ( from above the chroma screen), because i am seeing a lot of green chroma reflections and that makes half of the faces like that of a dead man. please work on that.
First, this was gr8. But, the speaker is not acknowledging that the strength of the economy, as indicated by GDP, lies in the reliance on public infrastructure projects to boost GDP. Despite the population, per capita consumption is poor and with the overall housing real estate industry being in such a bad spot, we can say that economic indicators are more 'smoke & mirrors' than at any other time. In other words, Mr Clifford is under-stating just how bad things are over there.
*precisely at this point **3:19** where we find South Vietnam had been betrayed by Henry Kissinger they became sacrify lamb for Chinese communist and obviously Communist North Vietnamese benefit on this deal our friend Saigon is over in 1975. That is all folks.*
Where is China's economy headed in 2024? Over 5% , w/ rapid growth in EV cars , 5G/6G & new energies ...... Where is Germany's economy headed in 2024? Negative ! Let's De-risk from the country who distorted the Pipelines !
Collapse? Germany has a GDP per capita of over 50,000 USD per year. China's GDP per capita is barely over 13,000 USD per year. You are not understanding the picture. You can only talk once you reach a high income.
I can't imagine living in a dystopian place full of homeless ppl and drug addicts roaming the cities like zombies where all the infrastructure is crumbling like in a post apocalyptic movie. A place where tall buildings grow but with law and order stands out like nirvana !!!
from a certain perspective you could look at China's belt and road initiatives as China attempting to derisk from the west by developing new partnerships and future markets
The real estate needs a new housing model, too many private housing and too little public and affordable housing. Singapore has a very effective model, public housing for the mass and private housing for the upper middle income and rich.
China could easily solve their population decline by allowing immigration and putting them in their many uninhabited new cities. Don't know it they will. But they easily could.
The reporter is specially uninformed about Taiwan. The economy over the heck is worse than. Housing in Taiwan is way too expensive and the youth feel stuck, unable to make ends meet.
Youth unemployment is also to be found in all parts of western societies. As a nation moving so fast on high tech like AI driven economy, more youth unemploymnt is envisaged.
If a North American country had a comparable youth unemployment to China, it'd likely be considered a national emergency. Maybe some Western countries do - like France. But France (...even France) isn't claiming the ascendance that the CCP is. They also don't face the myriad of related problems that China does.
Nowhere even CLOSE to China’s - who were grossly underreporting their youth unemployment in August (listing it as being just over “20%”). Several, prominent Chinese economists opined at the time they believed it was “closer to 45-50%” - which corresponds to hundreds of reports from various Chinese universities (that threatened graduating students with withholding their diplomas, if they didn’t list themselves as being “offered full-time employment “ prior to graduation)….
Most youth still live with families. Being a sole child (due to one child policy), they are in no hurry to find suitable jobs (wealthy enough). They've big dreams for being a successful entrepreneur like tiktok.
A small group of privy entrepreneurs got rich quick on the crest of the economics wave. They played monopoly with that money and cut the property goals posts outta reach of the majority of civs
Thorough and concise report on economic developments in China. However, your commentary on the Middle East conflict comes across as uninformed or misguided. As a television show presenter, it is essential to recognize that the impact of the conflict extends beyond Gaza to the ''West Bank'', where more than 1900 Palestinians has been murdered already. Before imparting your knowledge to the business world, it is imperative that you enhance your understanding of the situation.
@@sportsonwheelss When is the US population going to overtake China's population? It's absurd to assume that China's per capita productivity will forever remain at 20% that of the US. Just look at the other countries that have industrialized recently. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Even if China's per capita productivity remains at 50% of the US, their GDP would be far ahead of the US already. But what we are ignoring here is that China's GDP has ALREADY overtook the US years ago. If we look at PPP. The excuse is that PPP GDP is not nominal GDP. The counter argument to that is that nominal GDP lags behind PPP GDP, and it will inevitably catch up. As China (or any other country) industrializes, wages go up, costs go up, the PPP ratio will also change. No, this does not mean the PPP GDP falls. That never happenned anywhere else. It means the nominal GDP goes up. Even assuming no further actual economic growth, the fact that wages and costs goes up, automatically pushes the nominal GDP up! I live in a country stuck in the middle-income-trap. Living standards stopped improving 20 years ago. Nobody disagrees with the fact that the country is stuck in a rut. But nominal GDP continues to grow ! PPP GDP is stagnant though. Worst case scenario, China also gets stuck in this same middle-income rut, and stops growing. But their nominal GDP will continue to grow.
Totally nothing was shared in this talk but that China has problems. No real numbers, no real mention of the market problems, no real discussion of the fall in manufacturing, no real discussion of how China's modifications to employment numbers are trying to hide the damage, and on and on and on...
It just seems like this Clifford guy talks from his "general knowledge" without having much of a clue about what's actually happening in the Chinese economy. Or what fundamentals it operates on. "Experts" like him can't grasp the idea that they don't understand something and just throw a barrage of random generic 'advice' to the air, hoping that at least something they say will become at least somewhat similar to the real situation. The reality is that Chinese economy is and will very likely keep doing more or less fine, will keep registering decent growth numbers and there won't be the so much anticipated (by some, anyway) "collapse". It's important to at least try to accept the idea that Chinese economy does not operate in the same way of what you were taught from your textbook back in your study days. If you don't understand something, it's always best to research and try to understand the topic rather than senselessly talk some vague, generic and incoherent tosh as Mr. Clifford is doing here.
Idealogical ?? Let's try having a billionaire like Elon come forward and criticize Israel and let's see how ideological the western press & politicians become instantly !!! Lol !!! It would be like a frenzy and horner's nest !!!
The hinterland of China is deemed to be the poorly developed owing to the fact that there are too many difficult landscap and narrow river stream. But all effort had been placed to make way for high speed rail tunnelling through gorges, mountains and new highways been built to improve economic activities.
Increase in China’s GDP is a poor metric for measuring the performance of China’s economy. The Chinese government is boosting GDP figures by taking on debt to finance more infrastructure projects. The problem is that China already has an excess of infrastructure; another train or bridge to nowhere is infrastructure that won’t pay for itself and incurs debt. It’s just another way of both delaying China’s day of reckoning and increasing the pain when it comes.
lol, the infrastructure doesn't need to pay for itself. It will connect rural to the city, and boost the local economy. With those infrastructures, people living in Beijing and Shanghai could go to rural villages in a couple hours by high-speed train and spend hundreds of dollars on a weekend. The infrastructure will pay off in the long run by boosting the local economy. Even if they don't pay off at the end, so what? Good for the locals. That improves their lives dramatically. Who told you China already had enough infrastructure. The infrastructure building in China has never stopped and won't be stopped for decades.
The economy of China is similar to the Madoff investment firm. The profits dissipate into the CCP. However, most of the time there are no real profits, it’s the investment that dissipates.
China builds infrastructures with their profit. China is now putting water as their first priority. China knows in 20 years time water is precious. The investment is massive, moving south flood water to the north. Diverting the tibetan water to the central plain building dam as big as the three gorges. China generated green energy using Wong, dam, EV and solar power. How many countries build their energy and water resources.
🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳 Western press are overly concern about the collapse of the two real estates companies, Evergrande and Country Garden. In terms of the huge Chinese Economy, these two corrupt companies won't do much harm to China..... FOR IT TO BE ALLOWED TO SHUT DOWN. Instead of building too many condominiums, China has focused on building rails, roads, dams, reservoirs , power supplies , farms and plantations and fish and prawn farms. Notice that China has a lot of shoes and apparel factories, l orchards, vegetable and rice lands and of course chicken , pig and duck farms. So it is not much of a problem to close down a few real estates companies
As always DW is too little too late following the informational situation: the timid prediction of Chinese economy decline is over since Evergrande collapse.
As of January 2, 2024... The Shanghai stocks fell 1.3% on the first trading day of the new year. Hong Kong's Chinese stocks-fell 1.5%. Chinna facing youth unemployment, housing down, weak pricing are not to improve for a long time. The crackdown on businesses for national security has scared away international investors. And who has invested asking money back.
What are you talking about? The SSE index was 2974.93 on 29 Dec 2023, and 2962.28 on 2 Jan 2024. That's 0.43%. But stocks going up or down by 1.3% on one day is nothing. It's down 22% since the high at the start of Covid ! But don't panic yet. Because it fell 65% in 2008. You may have noticed, China did not cease to exist in 2009.
Since Italy turn down BRI , Germany at the right point to join BRI , WHy ? EU and N. Africa Supply Chain,the gain is great , benefit all level of citizens. It is good business that all ENJOY Look away from Politics but for the Citizens. Supply Chain
At 00:14:03 Mr. Clifford Coonan says dismissively that "the road is littered with the bodies of 'China Watchers' who predicted the end of the Chinese economy." To the question, "Is anyone predicting the end of the Chinese Economy?" the answer is yes and it is not just the dismissed rabble of the academically lower-class China Watchers who are predicting it, anymore. China is demographically the oldest economy in the world, but while it has far fewer young workers entering the workforce than the number of old people leaving it through death and retirement, youth (18 - 25 year olds) unemployment numbers got so high that the embarrassed CCP stopped reporting it and censored any mention of youth unemployment. If young workers work at least one hour per week (mandatory or universities with revoke their degrees) they are considered fully employed. The official estimate was 23% - 28% Youth unemployment depending on which branch of the CCP government one was listening to, but widely agreed-upon unofficial numbers were closer to 43% in 2023. This was one of many indicators that something was very, very, very wrong with the Chinese economy. There are enough empty, unfinished real estate properties in China to give EVERY man woman, and child in China TWO more units than they may already own. Depositors in Chinese banks are finding their deposits stolen by the banks (e;g; Construction Bank in Henan Province), converted into investment vehicles such as insurance plans without their consent, reinvested in projects for up to 99 years so that the money in their particular accounts are tied up for that span of time, etc. etc. etc. Outright thefts are reported as an individual, absent, rogue bank manager, so not the bank's fault. Shadow banks including Zhongzhi (ZZ) Capital has filed for bankruptcy, with asset losses high enough to make Country Gardens and Evergrande blush, but all three aren't as bad as the debt burden of China's railways. The local governments also have a massive debt problem to the point that nobody in China knows exactly how bad it really is because the debt isn't reported. In Shanghai, the 'Foreign District' is empty of foreigners. Ports are empty of ships and trucks (you can verify that by doing a comparison of satellite images and simply counting the ships and trucks by hand) while cargo containers are visibly piled ten high, which can only be done if they are empty. etc. etc. etc. The problem with people like Clifford Coonan is that he has risen so high in his own esteem that he can no longer see the ground. He reads CCP numbers, or analysis of CCP numbers or the reports of corporations who have just as much of a vested (sunk cost) interest in reporting the same optimistic numbers as the CCP... but he never just looks down at the ground and LOOKS with his own eyes. The road is not littered with the bodies of China Watchers who predicted the end of the Chinese economy because we're still here and still standing. History is very much littered with the very real bodies of people who did not see disaster coming when they were warned by people they dismissed.
A couple of passengers on the Titanic discussing how German sausages taste better than Beijing duck.
Oh my that's the perfect description of this train wreck.
The Nixon/Kissinger opening to China was not designed to create deocracy there but to isolate the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War. And it worked.
I agree, but it was also to try and bring China closer to a democracy.
Appreciate the pleasant and civilized discussion.
Always good to hear on China without any Chinese involved. It's like speaking about German economy with just an Italian economist.
Um...it is possible to study something while being in a different location from the thing you are studying...try googling astrophysics
@@ThePawnmakerNo, they’re just propagandists.
Finally find someone who still using their brain.
We have social credit here in the us too. It's called credit scores. Try to open a bank account with bad credit. I think I'm qualified to be a Chinese economics expert too.
@@thanhdiep59it’s not the same thing. A credit score will affect your ability to get a loan or credit card and it may affect the price of your car insurance. A credit score is also nothing to do with government. It’s entirely private enterprise. But your credit score rests entirely on your recorded use of credit products. The Chinese system is more pervasive. If you break certain laws your score would be negatively affected. If your score goes too low you are not allowed to buy plane tickets or high speed rail tickets. In a country like the uk that would be impossible as the railway company doesn’t even know the name of the passenger. In china obviously the passengers name is known as you cannot obtain a ticket without ID and the passenger’s right to purchase a ticket is controlled by the government through social credit. It’s just too much government control and honestly why do people put up with it.
Bless Clifford’s heart - he’s the most tongue-tied analyst I’ve ever listened to ( and I’ve been listening to him for years :)
He is one of the western media biggest propagandist. And you are brainwashed after listening to him for years 😂
All this speaking in wide generalisations is so unhelpful. What did we learn from that exchange ? Nothing new.
China's economy is bad, only grow at 5.2%. German's GDP grow at -0.5% . It is confusing that what are they talking about.
And USA growth 2-3%, but they are worried about China, who plan long term
That's because China is propping up their economy with unsecured assets, and they're lying about it.
The USA is heading into recession. It has already experienced negative growth in the last quarter.
its a time bomb, do you understand ? Cina make a blunder with their massive property and unpaid debt with so many country in Belt Road Megaproject... its very hard to reverse that
It's because China's economy is currently set to contract, and their GDP figures, unlike most of the rest of the world, is just published by the government, no real way to know if true or not. For example China measures real estate built as value, not the sale of it.
Germany's GDP is -0.3 for 2023, considering it's the continuation of gas issue etc., it's actually "fine". Would expect slow growth next year, and maybe in 2/3 years it will probably grow properly again.
And China's economy isn't that great based on their population, their own figures state $12.5k gdp per capita, Germany is 51k, US 70k.
One thing this program might have missed: Do we believe the economic numbers from the CCP? If China is becoming more authoritarian, wouldn't we expect them to overstate things?
so The IMF is the CCP
They cannot be trusted, full stop 🛑
100s of analysts from global banks, think tanks, IMF, World Bank etc watch china's data for a living. The numbers can never be 100% accurate. just like for any country but one can't fidge the number too much with that amount of eyes looking at them
There are literally 100s of global economists, academics, banks, think tanks etc who make a fulltime living dissecting the Chinese economy. No economic numbers can be 100% accurate for any country but it's not possible for Chinese numbers to deviate too much from real drivers of the economy. There are just too many eyes.
%100 we would
in india we have a similar problem some partys who cant promise any thing just promises to spend public money on free bies. free electricity free food free transport.
I dunno. Maybe if they throw rent on a nice place in, too.
Who doesn’t like freebies?
@@maily8388kolo
@@maily8388Not free, just citizens deciding where there tax dollars go.
Same as in Indonesia. Promise free everything during campaign. But deliver only 20% from what promised earlier
I can't trust even a word said by DW about China. If journalists are just part of the geopolitical game, we will depend in future on more reliable open sources from the internet.
China needs to make some improvements in property and youth unemployment, but with the size of about 400 million middle income, China has far more leverage to play with.
China is a sovereign country and doesn't need to serve any super power. On the other hand Germany will have to follow the US and even with decisions killing their own economy. Germany doesn't even have guts to tell the public who was behind the blast at Nordstream 2 pipe line.
Better ask the same question about the German economy.
We do. But because this discussion is about China, Germany does not come in to play.
Seems he doesn’t know China well
this has been in the making for at least 10 years
This was like watching the Special Olympics. Now I feel bad because I just insulted the Special Olympics.
8 minutes in no mention of BRICS +
bye bye
"China is rising too fast"
Or
"China is collapsing"
So.... Which one is it?
😂🤭
“ultimately, these apartments *will* fill up" - why does he think that? When there are already an insanely over-abundance of apartments vs people + a shrinking population. Where will these imaginary people come from? The contrary... the population is shrinking, and more will become vacant over time.
China is not going to collapse and the Chinese people are very resilient dispine the ccp , even the leap forward didn't bring down the ccp
The whole world is in economic woes from inflation, high interest, low employments, and recession.. how would any of these effect escapes any country, much less China?
Eventually, decoupling will happen - like it or not. We'd best be prepared for it.
This event only makes fun of China without analyzing the economy
I LOVE the comment (paraphrased) - If the west closes all its manufacturing and encourages China to build, build, build and make everything for us in the West - so that all of our money flows into China and makes them rich - THEN China will want to be a democratic capital led society !!
BUT THAT'S not happening so WE need to change.
Politicians get So high on their hubris. They pander & placate dictators in the hope they imagine the world like the West. Dictators simply have a different mindset focused 100% on themselves unlike democratic leaders who only focus 70% on themselves
I'm not convinced that they are different. The culture and status quo is different but we would all like to be dictator.
What did your Democratic leader did for you using his 30% of focus...? Better pay? cheaper life? or More convinience city? 🤣 Think about it instead of buy everything your media tolde you.
Being an authoritarian leadership doesn't mean a dictatorship. You can't follow Joe Brandon that Xi is a dictator because China is a single party system or its election system is different from your country.
Btw you don't accuse Vietnam a dictatorship because it's a communist system like China, do you??
@@TheKkpop1Vietnamese leadership is not as concentrated as in China but both countries are trying to impose party control at the expense of democracy, and in the case of China the Premier has no term limit. It appears that Vietnam is more of a party-led country. CCP says it has 'democratic dictatorship'.
@@TheKkpop1touche
Cliff knows his notes.
Great guest ❤
Working with china directly is challenging from an economically persepctive. My sister worked in a company that is chinese owned as executive HR, but it was originally american. She says that american executives get burned out by the ways china runs the company. There is no creativity, there are no business risks. She ended up leaving that company because of how horrible the higher up positions are treated towards such a robotic economical force
33:20 "I don't want to say 'oppression'." Oh my ...
The key is a political problem. A lot of economical problems mentioned here are not considered 'important' by the ruling party. Political stability triumphs all other issues, including economy.
all govts do not care about individual citizens, they only care about money and the large numbers
@jordie4423 Of course it does concern the central government. But that was not my point. The party leader has the ultimate control on what is more important and choose the poison. Same to what happened in Russia and in China during COVID-19: People's power was/is weak in those countries.
@jordie4423India a rising star? You must be dreaming. China has become the largest car exporter in the world. Let that sink in.
@@blitzrumble2956China's political system is the most stable in the world. Just look at Taiwan's recent election.
@@2KSnSLifestyle are you living in such ‘stable’ system, benefiting and enjoying it?
Things are really bad here in China. I want to get out but I'm stuck 😢
You can escape to a free country, just claim asylum.
You are stuck? There are literally hundreds of flights each day to all corners of the world. Just that you are NOT in China and probably not even Chinese.
Join the American border crisis
USA talk the talk. Decouple then
This was interesting, but it seemed incredibly superficial. Nowhere was there any real discussion about the extent of the off balance sheet debt of local governments, or a serious attempt to address the extent to which the CCPs policies make their stated objective of moving to a domestic growth led model impossible. He did touch on the need to reform, but he superficially skimmed over it. Likewise he skimmed over the impact of the aging population. There is no effective safety net / pension system, and with very low incomes and with the incredibly rapidly aging population, increasing spending is really not an option. Also, most credible demographers seem to be acknowledging the population is 1.3 billion, not 1.4 billion, and it will fall to between 650 - 950 million by the end of this century. They have massively overbuilt residential and commercial property and it is a political imperative that they finish another 20-30 million units that buyers have already paid deposits on, and the population is is already in serious decline and it will rapidly decline for at least the next 80 years. Somehow this guy thinks the property market will stabilize in the next few years. In reality it seems like it might be held together in the short-term by government money, but once the 20-30 million units are finished, the property market seems more likely to being in a deeply depressed state for decades. Is he on some sort of hard drugs?
Where is Europe economy headed in 2024 and will it continue to be backyard playground for the U.S, can you ask such question
very good article bringing up att the big points and factors. even mentioned local goverments funding of public services by selling/ renting out land. which most news media forgets to mention.
My family have always said,,,,Never Trust COMMIES,,,,,lol
Chinese economy should have collapseed years ago according to Clifford...
I will just just give western media a benefit of the doubt with a little pinch of salt.
If China figures out how to move foods and other consumer goods to all parts of their country and other countries, they will be the largest economy in the world as we’ve never seen before!
Just a technical suggestion, being a television technician: that you need to increase overhead direct key lighting on the shorter side of their faces ( from above the chroma screen), because i am seeing a lot of green chroma reflections and that makes half of the faces like that of a dead man. please work on that.
Kk
First, this was gr8. But, the speaker is not acknowledging that the strength of the economy, as indicated by GDP, lies in the reliance on public infrastructure projects to boost GDP. Despite the population, per capita consumption is poor and with the overall housing real estate industry being in such a bad spot, we can say that economic indicators are more 'smoke & mirrors' than at any other time. In other words, Mr Clifford is under-stating just how bad things are over there.
What about Germany, and the EU, as well as the UK ?
what about learning to read the titles of the videos?
Really informative program
Thanks, as always.
Ladies and gentlemen, if you are running short on porky pies during the holiday season, Clifford is your man!
5:18 exactly.
They look down on Asian people but they forget how to take care of homeless people
Yes. we in the west are very poor at it, for sure. Unfettered capitalism is a bi**h.
I just wonder that does it do any good to the world with the 2nd largest economy collapsing?
When he was in china recently? Anyone asking. 😂 This kind of bullsit all around in western media.
People can and have traveled to China during the pandemic.
*precisely at this point **3:19** where we find South Vietnam had been betrayed by Henry Kissinger they became sacrify lamb for Chinese communist and obviously Communist North Vietnamese benefit on this deal our friend Saigon is over in 1975. That is all folks.*
Resist Adaptation!
Clifford - Are foreign tourists staying away, and if so why?
Shameful, two comedians talking their imagination and delusions to do a talk show.
Should focus on Germany economy
Talk about what the future holds for the comatose German ECONOMY. 😂😂
Where is China's economy headed in 2024? Over 5% , w/ rapid growth in EV cars , 5G/6G & new energies ......
Where is Germany's economy headed in 2024? Negative ! Let's De-risk from the country who distorted the Pipelines !
He looks like Creed from the office lol
With a negative growth rate the economy in Germany is going collapse well before China. 😂😂😂
Collapse? Germany has a GDP per capita of over 50,000 USD per year. China's GDP per capita is barely over 13,000 USD per year. You are not understanding the picture. You can only talk once you reach a high income.
I can't imagine living in one of those high-rise apartment buildings like an ant in a colony or hive.
I can't imagine living in a dystopian place full of homeless ppl and drug addicts roaming the cities like zombies where all the infrastructure is crumbling like in a post apocalyptic movie. A place where tall buildings grow but with law and order stands out like nirvana !!!
For a closed mind person, there are too many things u can not imagine 😊
Walking in the streets at night in America and China. Which countries are safer in America or China.
Nor can I. But then, I can never see myself ever living in a condo either.
from a certain perspective you could look at China's belt and road initiatives as China attempting to derisk from the west by developing new partnerships and future markets
One of the most insightful interviews I've ever watched
LoL.... you're really low caliber 😅😅
The real estate needs a new housing model, too many private housing and too little public and affordable housing. Singapore has a very effective model, public housing for the mass and private housing for the upper middle income and rich.
Wow, a guest who knows wtf they're talking about. I gained insight !
China could easily solve their population decline by allowing immigration and putting them in their many uninhabited new cities. Don't know it they will. But they easily could.
Isn’t the so-called G 7 & China second largest economy are heavily indebted??? So what’s the big deal!!!
Did the 3 red lines start all this?
Is this a 1981 Video Clip? Heard exactly the same thing in 1981, 1982, 83, 84..
blah blah blah..
very good programme on China, Thank you .
The reporter is specially uninformed about Taiwan. The economy over the heck is worse than. Housing in Taiwan is way too expensive and the youth feel stuck, unable to make ends meet.
This one did not age well. We are talking about China overcapacity now. How could a pendulum be swinging so fast.
So is China over populated or not ?
Who wrote the song? It aint me babe.
25:52
Youth unemployment is also to be found in all parts of western societies. As a nation moving so fast on high tech like AI driven economy, more youth unemploymnt is envisaged.
If a North American country had a comparable youth unemployment to China, it'd likely be considered a national emergency. Maybe some Western countries do - like France. But France (...even France) isn't claiming the ascendance that the CCP is. They also don't face the myriad of related problems that China does.
Nowhere even CLOSE to China’s - who were grossly underreporting their youth unemployment in August (listing it as being just over “20%”). Several, prominent Chinese economists opined at the time they believed it was “closer to 45-50%” - which corresponds to hundreds of reports from various Chinese universities (that threatened graduating students with withholding their diplomas, if they didn’t list themselves as being “offered full-time employment “ prior to graduation)….
Most youth still live with families. Being a sole child (due to one child policy), they are in no hurry to find suitable jobs (wealthy enough). They've big dreams for being a successful entrepreneur like tiktok.
They are “unemployed” because it is better to be an employer and not being an employee.
@@u2ber888 They are wealthy and in no hurry to move out - because they are only children. Those factors don't really imply your perceived result.
Why the german are talking china economy with 5.2 % growth where their own country is facing negative growth
half the loans out in China and not secured
Is it getting easier for Chinese to 1) come to the US; 2) obtain green cards ?
Do they check the "names" of the ones asking questions???!!! Brain Filter, See Booty ? 😂😂😂😂
,😱
Why do u have this guy on your show
A small group of privy entrepreneurs got rich quick on the crest of the economics wave. They played monopoly with that money and cut the property goals posts outta reach of the majority of civs
Its not their money its ours.. remember?
Capitalists do not rule.. nor do they have any significant role in policy making in China.
You will be surprised China has more billionaires and millionaires than your EU.
Interruptions between host and guest are a natural part of a robust dynamic conversation, but this host was excessive! Let the man finish, sheesh.
Thorough and concise report on economic developments in China. However, your commentary on the Middle East conflict comes across as uninformed or misguided. As a television show presenter, it is essential to recognize that the impact of the conflict extends beyond Gaza to the ''West Bank'', where more than 1900 Palestinians has been murdered already. Before imparting your knowledge to the business world, it is imperative that you enhance your understanding of the situation.
The guy can't do simple math. US great growth at less than 2% while the Chinese economy in shamble at 5%. Not sure where he learn his math.
@@sportsonwheelss When is the US population going to overtake China's population? It's absurd to assume that China's per capita productivity will forever remain at 20% that of the US. Just look at the other countries that have industrialized recently. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Even if China's per capita productivity remains at 50% of the US, their GDP would be far ahead of the US already.
But what we are ignoring here is that China's GDP has ALREADY overtook the US years ago. If we look at PPP. The excuse is that PPP GDP is not nominal GDP. The counter argument to that is that nominal GDP lags behind PPP GDP, and it will inevitably catch up.
As China (or any other country) industrializes, wages go up, costs go up, the PPP ratio will also change. No, this does not mean the PPP GDP falls. That never happenned anywhere else. It means the nominal GDP goes up. Even assuming no further actual economic growth, the fact that wages and costs goes up, automatically pushes the nominal GDP up!
I live in a country stuck in the middle-income-trap. Living standards stopped improving 20 years ago. Nobody disagrees with the fact that the country is stuck in a rut. But nominal GDP continues to grow ! PPP GDP is stagnant though. Worst case scenario, China also gets stuck in this same middle-income rut, and stops growing. But their nominal GDP will continue to grow.
Totally nothing was shared in this talk but that China has problems. No real numbers, no real mention of the market problems, no real discussion of the fall in manufacturing, no real discussion of how China's modifications to employment numbers are trying to hide the damage, and on and on and on...
@@sportsonwheelssapparently he learned his math on a Chinese party web site.
Fantastic
Please do more like this! Maybe next on the USA
Detailed as possible! It's fascinating ❤
Thank you DW
The "turd plenum". Love it.
It just seems like this Clifford guy talks from his "general knowledge" without having much of a clue about what's actually happening in the Chinese economy. Or what fundamentals it operates on. "Experts" like him can't grasp the idea that they don't understand something and just throw a barrage of random generic 'advice' to the air, hoping that at least something they say will become at least somewhat similar to the real situation.
The reality is that Chinese economy is and will very likely keep doing more or less fine, will keep registering decent growth numbers and there won't be the so much anticipated (by some, anyway) "collapse". It's important to at least try to accept the idea that Chinese economy does not operate in the same way of what you were taught from your textbook back in your study days. If you don't understand something, it's always best to research and try to understand the topic rather than senselessly talk some vague, generic and incoherent tosh as Mr. Clifford is doing here.
Who is killing Germany 's economy
Worry about yourselves. China has competent leadership , selected by merit, not money like US
Touché
Dream on.
Emporrer ping is completely out of touch with reality.
🤔
think about your own country.......germanys economy is sinking....
Idealogical ?? Let's try having a billionaire like Elon come forward and criticize Israel and let's see how ideological the western press & politicians become instantly !!! Lol !!! It would be like a frenzy and horner's nest !!!
The hinterland of China is deemed to be the poorly developed owing to the fact that there are too many difficult landscap and narrow river stream. But all effort had been placed to make way for high speed rail tunnelling through gorges, mountains and new highways been built to improve economic activities.
Mate, have you been to Coventry😂
@@EthanZoid😂😂😂
Increase in China’s GDP is a poor metric for measuring the performance of China’s economy. The Chinese government is boosting GDP figures by taking on debt to finance more infrastructure projects. The problem is that China already has an excess of infrastructure; another train or bridge to nowhere is infrastructure that won’t pay for itself and incurs debt. It’s just another way of both delaying China’s day of reckoning and increasing the pain when it comes.
lol, the infrastructure doesn't need to pay for itself. It will connect rural to the city, and boost the local economy. With those infrastructures, people living in Beijing and Shanghai could go to rural villages in a couple hours by high-speed train and spend hundreds of dollars on a weekend. The infrastructure will pay off in the long run by boosting the local economy. Even if they don't pay off at the end, so what? Good for the locals. That improves their lives dramatically. Who told you China already had enough infrastructure. The infrastructure building in China has never stopped and won't be stopped for decades.
First go worry Europe recession, inflation, and energy shortage in this winter. Then US sky rocketing debt & with high interest rate
@@sibaraku2023did you not think that infrastructure needs to be maintained?
You are kid?
What about NDP and the depreciation of durable consumer goods?
It appears the host knows more about China than his guest.😮
at 5.5% growth as per IMF
The economy of China is similar to the Madoff investment firm. The profits dissipate into the CCP. However, most of the time there are no real profits, it’s the investment that dissipates.
China builds infrastructures with their profit. China is now putting water as their first priority. China knows in 20 years time water is precious. The investment is massive, moving south flood water to the north. Diverting the tibetan water to the central plain building dam as big as the three gorges. China generated green energy using Wong, dam, EV and solar power. How many countries build their energy and water resources.
Super podcast! Very informative.
Coonan sounds like ChatGPT.
What if China arrested Elon Musk on a visit to China? What would be the impacts on stocks and politics?
Naïveté about Chinese communist party and political system is astounding 🇺🇸🇵🇱🇮🇱🇺🇸
🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳 Western press are overly concern about the collapse of the
two real estates companies, Evergrande and Country Garden.
In terms of the huge
Chinese Economy,
these two corrupt companies won't do much harm to China..... FOR IT TO BE ALLOWED TO SHUT DOWN.
Instead of building
too many condominiums, China has focused on building rails, roads, dams, reservoirs , power supplies , farms and plantations and fish and prawn farms.
Notice that China
has a lot of shoes and apparel factories, l orchards, vegetable and rice lands and of course chicken , pig and duck farms.
So it is not much of a problem to close down a few real estates companies
What is the next China though? Argentina is for sale...
India
As always DW is too little too late following the informational situation: the timid prediction of Chinese economy decline is over since Evergrande collapse.
As of January 2, 2024... The Shanghai stocks fell 1.3% on the first trading day of the new year. Hong Kong's Chinese stocks-fell 1.5%. Chinna facing youth unemployment, housing down, weak pricing are not to improve for a long time. The crackdown on businesses for national security has scared away international investors. And who has invested asking money back.
What are you talking about? The SSE index was 2974.93 on 29 Dec 2023, and 2962.28 on 2 Jan 2024. That's 0.43%. But stocks going up or down by 1.3% on one day is nothing. It's down 22% since the high at the start of Covid !
But don't panic yet. Because it fell 65% in 2008. You may have noticed, China did not cease to exist in 2009.
Look at American cities with lots of crime and homeless people
Since Italy turn down BRI , Germany at the right point to join BRI , WHy ? EU and N. Africa Supply Chain,the gain is great , benefit all level of citizens. It is good business that all ENJOY
Look away from Politics but for the Citizens. Supply Chain
At 00:14:03 Mr. Clifford Coonan says dismissively that "the road is littered with the bodies of 'China Watchers' who predicted the end of the Chinese economy." To the question, "Is anyone predicting the end of the Chinese Economy?" the answer is yes and it is not just the dismissed rabble of the academically lower-class China Watchers who are predicting it, anymore. China is demographically the oldest economy in the world, but while it has far fewer young workers entering the workforce than the number of old people leaving it through death and retirement, youth (18 - 25 year olds) unemployment numbers got so high that the embarrassed CCP stopped reporting it and censored any mention of youth unemployment. If young workers work at least one hour per week (mandatory or universities with revoke their degrees) they are considered fully employed. The official estimate was 23% - 28% Youth unemployment depending on which branch of the CCP government one was listening to, but widely agreed-upon unofficial numbers were closer to 43% in 2023. This was one of many indicators that something was very, very, very wrong with the Chinese economy.
There are enough empty, unfinished real estate properties in China to give EVERY man woman, and child in China TWO more units than they may already own. Depositors in Chinese banks are finding their deposits stolen by the banks (e;g; Construction Bank in Henan Province), converted into investment vehicles such as insurance plans without their consent, reinvested in projects for up to 99 years so that the money in their particular accounts are tied up for that span of time, etc. etc. etc. Outright thefts are reported as an individual, absent, rogue bank manager, so not the bank's fault. Shadow banks including Zhongzhi (ZZ) Capital has filed for bankruptcy, with asset losses high enough to make Country Gardens and Evergrande blush, but all three aren't as bad as the debt burden of China's railways. The local governments also have a massive debt problem to the point that nobody in China knows exactly how bad it really is because the debt isn't reported.
In Shanghai, the 'Foreign District' is empty of foreigners. Ports are empty of ships and trucks (you can verify that by doing a comparison of satellite images and simply counting the ships and trucks by hand) while cargo containers are visibly piled ten high, which can only be done if they are empty. etc. etc. etc.
The problem with people like Clifford Coonan is that he has risen so high in his own esteem that he can no longer see the ground. He reads CCP numbers, or analysis of CCP numbers or the reports of corporations who have just as much of a vested (sunk cost) interest in reporting the same optimistic numbers as the CCP... but he never just looks down at the ground and LOOKS with his own eyes.
The road is not littered with the bodies of China Watchers who predicted the end of the Chinese economy because we're still here and still standing. History is very much littered with the very real bodies of people who did not see disaster coming when they were warned by people they dismissed.