ETHIOPIA | Another Eritrean War?
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- Опубликовано: 31 май 2024
- In October 2023, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed Ali, raised fears of a new war with neighbouring Eritrea. In a high-profile televised speech, he claimed that Ethiopia should assert its right to access the Red Sea. Raising fears that Ethiopia was preparing for conflict, Eritrean forces moved close to the border. But while Abiy Ahmed has now insisted that Ethiopia wouldn't resort to armed force, many worry that a new war may be brewing between the two countries, especially as they have a long history of conflict.
Eritrea and Ethiopia have a long and complex history. However, while Ethiopia was never colonised, Eritrea was seized by Italy in the nineteenth century. However, after the Second World War, it was placed under British trusteeship pending a decision on its future. But opinion was divided. While many wanted it to become independent, others wanted it to unite with neighbouring Ethiopia. Ultimately, the United Nations General Assembly voted to create a federation. However, this was short-lived. As tensions grew, Ethiopia needed the federal system and annexed Eritrea. This led to a long campaign against Ethiopian control - the Eritrean War of Independence. This eventually ended when the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) teamed up with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) to overthrow Ethiopia's military government in 1991. Two years later, Eritrea became independent. Relations soon collapsed between the two partners as Eritrea claimed territory along the border, including Tigray. This led to a new war in 1998-2000. But while the sides eventually agreed on arbitration and established a Boundary Commission, Ethiopia rejected its findings until 2018, when a new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali, took over. Determined to push back on Tigrayan/TPLF power in Ethiopia, he agreed to the award, winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Meanwhile, relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara continued to improve, especially as Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki, a fierce opponent of the TPLF, assisted Ethiopia in its civil war against Tigray. But since the end of the war, relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have soured again. As Ethiopia grows economically, it is trying to gain direct access to the Red Sea. And it's this that's now sparking fears of a new war.
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VIDEO CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:46 Landlocked States in International Relations
02:02 Ethiopia and Eritrea: Location and Population
03:30 The Emergence of Ethiopia and Eritrea
04:32 The Federation of Ethiopia and Eritrea
05:48 The Eritrean War of Independence
08:16 Eritrea-Ethiopia War
09:56 A New Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea
11:28 Ethiopia, Eritrea and the Tigray War
13:12 Ethiopia-Eritrea: A Return to War?
SOURCES AND FURTHER READING
Office of the Prime Minister | Ethiopia
www.pmo.gov.et
Office of the Prime Minister | Ethiopia | RUclips Channel
/ @officeoftheprimeminis...
UN Commission for Eritrea
digitallibrary.un.org/record/...
Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission
pca-cpa.org/en/cases/99/
PM Abiy Ahmed Speech | 14 October 2023
• ከጠብታ ውሃ እስከ ባህር ውሃ
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#Ethiopia #Eritrea #RedSea
Watching the original video (I’ve linked it in the description), Abiy Ahmed’s comments certainly seemed rather threatening. So, do you think he really plans to launch a conflict for the sea? Or do you think it is a peaceful call for access, as he claims? If so, what does "access" really mean in this context? After all, Ethiopia already has it via Djibouti. As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
Dictator of Eritrea is 77 years old. He has ruled for over 30 years. There will be a struggle for power when hes gone. The time for Ethiopia to act will be soon.
thank you . Abiy also mention in his speech zeila port of Somaliland. what do you think his plan towards zeila when we consider factors like history and sociopolitical?
@@gatawe Ethiopia needs more ports. They will negotiate with any neighbor willing to work together towards common prospertity. Somalilanders have a lot to gain and could compete with Djoubiti in the region.
Although it was a fairly thorough and accurate summary of the history of the 2 nations, you were incorrect when you states that the war in '98 began when Eritrea laid claims to tigrayan lands. The reality is the opposite. A cursory look at maps of Eritrea pre 1998 vs maps of tigray in 1998 will show you that Eritrea's borders around Badme have always been consistent, whereas as tigrays expanded to include large parts of western Ertrea well beyond the town of badme. Another important factor is that during the 2 year war in tigray, it was Eritrea's participation or lack of it(during second stage/phase when tplf/tdf almost marched into Addis) that proved pivotal in that war.
As for your question, it's fairly obvious it was not a "peaceful call for access" as he later claimed because he stated in thatb45 minute long diatribebthat it could led to war unless neighboring nations conceded. The fact that even Djibouti, which hosts several militaries and has hosted Ethiopian exports/imports feltnthe need to come out strongly against his statement should tell you as much. The only reason he walked back his statements is because of the blowback he received from all neighboring nations but also because he failed to fully appreciate that he is militarily weak(large insurgencies in Amhara and oromia) and a war with Eritrea right now would lead to his downfall. But the reality is that he opened pandoras box, and it will be very hard for Eritrea not see Abiy as possibly planning on doing something when he is in a stronger military position. So the question for Eritrea is does it simply brush it off...or does it take pre-emptive measures to ensure he/Ethiopia is not in a position to threatening Eritrea at a later stage
My Ethiopian & Eritrean brothers.
Greetings from Nigeria.
Please do not get involved in any wars.
We love you guys and always wish the best for you.
Guys try to resolve your disputes using a peaceful resolution and stay safe.
You both will always be in our prayers for peace and support.
Cheers.
Yes my brother I am with u. Peace love Harmony prosperity to mama Africa. Enough is Enough. We don't need war. Let's say no war anymore. Pls pls pls. For what. Enough God be with us all. Let's love and respect eachother. 🙏 God be with us all.
whom ever you are .... Remember Pro James is not Ethiopian or Eritrean,,, therefor he seems to want the war..
We got a psychopath as a leader, we don't want war...he does. And the TPLF.
Ethiopia don't want peace. Because they want impossible actions 😂😂😂 there are a lot of country without sea.
My brothers this not a laughing matter at all. We don't need war. That's it. No war should be our slogan. Let's manifest love peace and prosperity. That's all we need to come out of our mouth or think about . Love. God is Love. Love is God. Instead let's get busy how to impower mama Africa 🌍 as unity 🤝 ✌️ 👏 🙏🙏🙏. Let's try to sustain our self .we have what it takes to do it full of resources and ability. Love love love.
UK played a role why Eritrea was in the mss.
UK occupied Eritrea and later gave away Eritrea to Ethiopia against the will of the Eritrean people.
That caused decades of conflicts between the two nations.
Eritrea best not mess with Ethiopia and Ethiopians. Ethiopians want peace, not war with their brothers and sisters, but if they attack first and choose war then Ethiopia will defend themselves.
I thought Eritrea was an Italian colony not a British one
@@artman12 In the aftermath of ww2, Britain was in Eritrea for 10 years reaping apart everything Italy ever built.
None sense shabia propaganda
@@KingK2205 all bark. Ethiopia couldn’t even defeat tdf alone. Also Ethiopia is currently embroiled in ethnic wars, it stands zero chance against Eritrea.
As a Somali I really enjoyed this video a very well balanced and researched
Thank you very much.
"CORRECTION Sr! 👉Tigrayans are NOT the 3rd largest population in Ethiopia, the 3rd largest population in🇪🇹 are Somalis."
👆was my comment
@@JamesKerLindsayCORRECTION Sr! 👉Tigrayans are NOT the 3rd largest population in Ethiopia, the 3rd largest population in🇪🇹 are Somalis.
❌I appreciate if you correct your mistake & tell your viewers in your next video
Stop saying Somalis, nor Somalian..we are Somali people, our language is Somali, our country is Somalia..thank you
@@MohamedHassan-jq8guSomali is an ethnic groups not all Somalis belong to Somalia there are allot of Somalis in Kenya Ethiopia Djibouti and even the break away somaliland
As an ethiopian, this is one of the best non biased history recount I have ever heard. Thank you sir!.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
This is heavily biased misrepresenting the tigray war by making it look like Abiy launched an attack rather than the tigray doing a suprise attck on the Ethiopian military.
Correction sir there is no tigray ethnic group in Eritrea please don’t mislead and gaslight !
No one said anything about Eritrea in this thread. And big ups for a big word@@kgebrihiwet6433
It is not bias but little wrong on facts
If It comes to war between Ethiopia and Eritrea 🇪🇷, we Somalia 🇸🇴 got your back our Eritrean brothers and sisters.
There is no match in this world the power and bravery of Eritrean and Somali men, Ethiopia will regret making threats against Eritrea 🇪🇷 and Somalia 🇸🇴.
We don’t bow down to colonizers 🙏❤️🇪🇷🇸🇴
ደነዝ
Yes my bro we must do that 💪🏿
We will see😂
Ethiopia can get access to the sea only through peaceful means by negotiating with its neighbors. Ethiopian leader Abi Ahmed should grow up. He does not seem to understand the consequences of war. The region has a long history of wars because of leaders like Abi.
There are several European countries that are landlocked and doing very well.
They have maritime access agreements with their neighbors to use their repective sea ports legally. I hope Ethiopian leaders understand that. Abi Ahmed knows the devastating 30 year long war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Badme border war, the non-ending civil war in Ethiopia since Abi came to power. He should respect the sovereignty of Ethiopia's neighboring countries. Why does he need a new war?
"We don’t bow down to colonizers??" I thought Somalia was under the colony of the Italians and the British? Or is there an alternate history?
I love how professor Ker-lindsy always chooses the most fascinating topics that we dont hear about eveyday.
Hear hear.
@@youknow6968 here here
Yu love simply because he tells you what you want to hear.
Yeah repeating the same British propaganda. Don’t let the professor title fool you. He got everything on this topic wrong. He didn’t mention the fact the UK and USA deceived the United Nations in order to gift the country Eritrea to their Freemason puppet king Haileselassie of Ethiopia. The British worked very hard to incite religion and regional conflicts in the Eritrean society but failed miserably because the Eritrean people has a long history of civilization. Another despicable trait of the British government is in their less than ten years of occupation, they looted and extracted Eritrean wealth not even a scrap metal was spared. The damage these Anglos have done to the world is simply satanic.
Thank you so much! I try my best.
All we🇪🇹🇪🇷 need is peace!Not war unfortunately PM of Ethiopia doesn't care about the lives of our soldiers.
Really? Looting and killing Tigrayan women is "peace" for you. Soon, you will find out how vicious Abiy and his troops are.
😁👑😁😁😁😁🤦♂️rethink
TRY If you have gut
If Eritrea could go back to Ethiopia and become a province of Ethiopia there could be peace as long as diplomacy is not corrupted.
@@wediofla3230These types of “leaders” are what’s wrong with Africa.
You missed a couple of important points.
1- USA to protect their base at Kagnew- gave Eritrea to Haileselassie.
2- The 1998 war, was to reverse the Eritrean referendum- Bademe is clearly marked in Eritrea, it is not in Tigray.
3- President Essayas is beloved by Eritreans, sham election does not make you legitimate.
4- The USA saved TPLF, at Pretoria-African Union is just following the order.
5-Ethiopian historical outlet is Djibuti, with hundred years railway.
Eritrea was not given by anyone! Axum Empire solidifies our historical roots, it's just a matter of time
Yours is war propaganda, his is factual..
God gave Axumite Empire the Red Sea.The CHOSEN Axumites.@@disisaz
You are entitled to your own opinion-but not to your own facts.@@TH-qk6ez
@@disisaz Axum Empire extended not only in northern Ethiopia but even in Yemen and Saudi -arabia. It doesnt mean we have same historical roots.
Thanks professor Ker Lindsay, good to understand the history between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the reasons behind the Tigray conflict. Look forward to your videos each week!
Thank you for the extremely kind words! Always nice to hear. 🙏🏻🙂
👉 that is a misconception there is no war❗ what are you talking about, Fake news hoax news.
great video, as always. I remember reading this headline a while ago and I'm glad that you're covering this subject
Thanks. In fact, as I was editing the video, I saw that The Economist had also picked up on the story.
when prime minister Abiy mentions about red sea access, by default the demand is either Eritrea, Djibouti or Somaliland. Not just Eritrea.
Indeed. But it already has access via Djibouti. The understanding is that he is referring to Eritrea.
@@JamesKerLindsay Abiy ahmed was clearly asking for ' ownership' of port not just a sea access which was ridiculous as Ethiopia was never denied to 'access' one. Infact it was the Ethiopian govt who boycotted to use the assab port during the Ethio-Eritrean war.
This is not true, Ethiopian is never claimed any other countries port execept Aseb port.
Djibouti shielded themselves from war.
@@JamesKerLindsay to correct u Abiy said we need ownership not access and tigrayans only exist in ethiopia but the tigrinyas exist in both states.
The federation was chosen by christians to preserve the unity of eritrea and stop British partition plans to sudan and ethiopia because no one wanted in the security council the existence of an independent Eritrean state.
The war was started by Ethiopians to make the disputed territories to annex eritrea again or atleast the port of asseb
Nobody gave eritrea ethiopian lands but told ethiopians they are occupying other's territory.
And now PM.ABIY is doing what every Ethiopian leader does when you don't have internal support you externalize it by declaring ASSEB is Ours djibouti,Somalia ours
Eritrea 🇪🇷 is not for sale. BUT DREAM IS FREE 😂
gWe don't want Eritrea we want Assab which is a different thing
@@jhonywalker1168asseb is an Eritrea territory whether you like it or not. Wanting Asseb is wanting Eritrea so keep dreaming
አኛ ኢትዮጵያውያን ከኤርትራው ያን ጋር በፍቅር በሰላም በወንድማማችነት በእህታማማችነት አብረን በጎረቤትነት እንኖረለን! ፈጣሪ ከኛ ጋር ነዉ ! ምቀኛን ቀናተኛን እግዚአብሔር ልቦና ይስጣችሁ!
We are always with our brothers and sisters from Ethiopia like you. In peace, we can harvest many wonderful things that can benefit our both nations.
ahhh yes i see mmmmh, bruuuh use a real language.
ይህ ህፃን ጠ/ሚ ተብዬው ጦርነት እየጎሰመ ነው:: በጋራ ተጠቃቅሞ መኖር ሳይሆን የመስፋፋት አጀንዳውን ይዞ ተነስቷል:: የሞከረው ግዜ ግን ያየዋል:: ኤርትራ እስከአሁን ለጥሩ የኢትዮጵያ ጎረቤት መንግስት አልታደልንም
@@herospeedy3174English is a baby and primitive language compared to that language. ቶ
@@herospeedy3174English not a real language. English language: %24 German %29 French %29 Latin and other. :)
As a Somali I stand with Eritrea. A landlock country shouldn't be making such bold demands.
lmao those ethiopians put themselves in that situation. btw the real ethiopians are the eritreans not this current "ethiopia"
🐄🐄😂😂
As a Somali u should stay aside from this. Coz both of them are one .
Shouldn't you worry about your failed state?
We have a crazy prime minister .. you never know what he is gonna do... the dude loves war.. the sooner he goes, the better off we are...glory to fano ❤❤🇪🇹🇪🇹
Regardless of the population size of 🇪🇹 and the alleged historical reason, Eritrea is a sovereign and a recognised member of the United Nations. Therefore, violating the sovereignty of 🇪🇷 is against international law. Asab is an integral part of 🇪🇷 and is not for sale!
Assab belongs to Ethiopia,
@@Andolem ????
@@Andolem it doesn't
@@Andolem In your dreams!
@@peaceonearth256 It will become a reality.
VIVA Eritrea 🇪🇷 ♥️ and somalia 🇸🇴 forever ♥️ independent
No more war. The region needs cooperation to grow together.
somebody is comming for you guys😂
don't be fooled by the western media there's no war
@@jhonywalker1168no way
@@jhonywalker1168 wedi sharmuta afka has !
Abiy Ahmed won a peace price. Do they give it anyone these days?
Not Trump. I don't know if he would deserve it for the deals he brokered in Middle East, but if he did, he wouldn't receive it anyway.
😜😜😜😜
The noble prize is joke this.days its given to the must who waged a war and kill millions of people its was never peace prize
It would be good if Ethiopia could partner with Eritrea to expand the port of Assab for maritimel shipments. That would be a huge win for both countries.
Did you share your wife with your other person the one you heat the most
@@sunshine-bp6of 🤣
you steal someone else's wife?
Ethiopia cannot demand something that is not its right, and it must understand that well because that will ignite wars and conflicts. Ethiopia will not benefit from the matter even if it obtains a sea port by force due to the continuation of the conflict and the disruption of any projects on the sea. Therefore, Ethiopia should follow the example of other landlocked countries such as Serbia, which concluded an agreement with Greece and Bosnia with Croatia and Bolivia with Chile. These landlocked countries have concluded agreements to rent ports in neighbouring countries, not own them nor to impose sovereignty on them, because no one will accept this. There is also another example that Ethiopia can follow, which is the port of Gwadar, Pakistan, which was leased by China for a period of time and China does not have any sovereignty over it. Also India did the same thing and rented the port of Chabahar for twenty years from Iran to transport its goods through Iran to landlocked Central Asian countries. India also does not have sovereignty over this land in the port.
For example, Ethiopia can strike an agreement with Eritrea on the following terms:
1- Obtaining a new plot of land on the Red Sea sufficient to establish a new port and leasing this port for twenty years or more.
2- The agreement and its terms are renewed every time after the expiration of the period.
3- Ethiopia has no territorial or political sovereignty over the port’s land or waters.
4- Ethiopia has no right to establish a military naval fleet, and its army and security forces have no right to enter the port at all.
5- The security of the outer port’s surroundings and waters is entrusted to the Eritrean forces and the Eritrean Navy only.
6- Joint security forces, such as the police, could be established between Eritrea and Ethiopia to maintain the security of the port from within.
7- The Eritrean forces and the Eritrean Navy have the right to enter the port and also supervise it from the sea side.
Only with such basic provisions can any of the neighbouring maritime countries guarantee the safety and integrity of their territories from any unlawful Ethiopian ambitions that would ignite bloody conflicts. This is the only thing that will help Ethiopia rent a commercial sea port and ensure the continuation of exports and imports smoothly that will be very beneficial to the Ethiopian economy.
Great topic to cover! I also like how you started adding background music to your videos
Eritrea is an international recognized country. The Assab port of Eritrea is within Eritrea‘s recognized border, like the port city of Massawa and border town Badme.
As Somalia and Djibouti rejected Ethiopia‘s Redsea ambitions, Eritrea also rejected it
Assab city and its coastline belong to the Afar region of Ethiopia. In other words, it belongs to Ethiopia.
Ethiopia colonized Eritrea just like the other countries did. Why do you feel you have a access to the sea? Based on your ideology Ethiopia, Turkey, Italy, Egypt and England colonized Eritrea so it means they all should think Eritrea is their land
How does this make sense?
@@getugebretsadik9876 welqayt and humera belong to tigrignians,in other word they belong to the tgrignians in eritrea kkkk....dedeb wahid short memory tesfafahi hayl gura bicha yedro srat nafaqi kkkk shebya for ever
Majority of Ethiopians don't want war with Eritrea but peaceful cooperation no one supported abiy now he is just trying to create distraction from his disastrous lose in Amhara region and gain support from tigray tplf who hate Eritrea he has no capability to defeat Fano Amhara let alone another sovereign country i know the west is smiling to hear what abiy said and white people are all happy to cover this story and put some gasoline on the fire because us is anti Ethiopia but no one will fall for it how about cover the war in Amhara where innocent people are getting killed raped and many more horrible thinhs happening everyday as usual selective amature from the west
@@getugebretsadik9876 you’re dreaming. Check the boundaries of Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Ethiopia is burning inside, Abiy Ahmed wants to divert local attentions towards neighbouring countries making a provocative claims of sea access.
100%, you are right.
100% incorrect you are
@@kerubel1436😂
Ethiopia went through a bloody war whith:
1. Tigray in 2020/2021 which depleted the treasury of the gov't.
2. There's a grreater conflict with Amhara which has a mounting toll on both sides.
3. OLA of Oromia is fighting vigorously only twenty five kilometers away from the capital city Adis Ababa.
imperialist comment. or a Banda
Your History narrative is informative and Clear and well linked event to events chronology.
Yes. I think there will be many people who feel that it was another very ill-judged decision by the Committee. But I guess they decided based on what they had at the time. In 2019, it looked like he was a young, forward-looking reformist. Then again, I am sure his supporters would argue that he was willing to make peace with those open to peaceful solutions, but had to use force against those who weren't. Nevertheless, it certainly does raise some important questions about how the Committee approaches its work, doesn't it?
Absolutly wrong Ethiopian Economy & poletical stability lowered down NOT due to Llack of Sea ports
But due War , ethnical conflicts , CORRUPTION , POOR GOVERNANCE , interference of the West as well as Arab Nations in their poletics ...etc
Even last week we showed a military parade in Addis Abeba & for sure Ethiopia spend Billions of Dollars for weapons......is that not a burden for your Economy?
James thank you for coming to speak to my university the other day and answering my question about South Africa!
Thanks so much. I enjoyed it a lot, although doing these things online is always much more difficult for various reasons. It's so much nicer to be in the room. And thanks for the great question. I really must do something about South Africa.
Always informative. Always professional👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
One of the most honest analysis, not biased! Great job, Professor!
Thank you so much. I hope I presented a fair account.
Well Done Professor
Awesome
No one can't change the History because it's always there & the world's now we the Eritrean people we settled Ethiopia For TWO times!!!
Thanks so much!
Ethiopia will come for the sea in the near future thats for sure
Your illumination of issues on the periphery are greatly appreciated Professor James 🙏
Thanks for such an insightful and well produced video , consisting of facts on the ground. Kudos to you and the team who did this.
Thanks for the video Dr. Ker Lindsay!
I’m glad the temperature has been lowering again on this, things finally seemed to be settling down after the Tigray War until this situation, but there are still so many volatile players that bubbling tensions are unsurprising. To my lay man’s mind, future political developments in Mekele and Asmara seem to be the most likely inflection points in what happens moving forward. Abiy may not be the dove he was once believed to be, but he does seem to have stabilized the situation in Addis Ababa after 45 years of revolutionary governments.
One note, if I remember correctly, the Tigray War started when the TPLF attacked and took over several military bases of the Ethiopian Federal Army. Only then did Abiy send in troops to reassert control of Tigray and install a transitional government, though as mentioned earlier that doesn’t mean that Abiy is overly dovish either.
Another note, it appears the Eritrean regime turns out its 5-cent army to comment sections (the giveaway is when several comments say the country’s communist dictator of 35 years is “beloved”). Not that Ethiopia wouldn’t be liable to do the same thing at times in the past, at least prior to 2018…
Thanks as always professor for your insights, and for providing a neutral basis for discussion
Thanks so much LocalLt. Yes, I’d been warned years ago that the Eritrea troll army is particularly active. It really is the North Korea of Africa. I keep meaning to do a video on it. As for Abiy Ahmed, he is clearly a very interesting character. I watched the video where he made the claims that have riled observers. Even without understanding the words, the message is clear. I can see why many were so concerned. More generally, as other comments have shown, many Ethiopians do believe that access to the sea is a right. It will be interesting to see how this developed.
In the meantime, warmest greeting from Yerevan. I won’t be making a video while I am here this time, but I will be doing something when I get back. It has been fascinating talking to people about how they see the country’s strategic direction. Not quite the answers I was expecting. But it says a lot.
@@JamesKerLindsay yeah after watching that seems like quite a provocative speech, I was just skipping around but when he starts showing maps he clearly says “geographical prison” in English, and his tone of voice turns threatening. I wonder what he was going for there, especially given that he’s since backed down somewhat.
Side note, it looks like one of the map animations in Abiy’s presentation was ripped from a recent CaspianReport video about Ethiopia’s other potential conflict with Egypt. Just thought that was a funny detail
@@JamesKerLindsay
Having a different opinion or perspective than you doesn’t make people online trolls. Few people are using their identify online when making comments. Eritreans online are not different from other people and don’t behave different from others online.
You are not insulting the regim but Eritreans. Shame on you.
Lol, @‘North Korea’ He’s not Eritrean or Ethiopian, just a paid agent to ridicule one side.
Alert, when he said former Tigray’s territory was given to Eritrea referring to Badme.
STOP !
Prof James... The comment about eritrean commenting are sent or associated the government..I guarantee you,it is not like that. I know so many people .. who don't agree with the government about so many things. BUT when it comes Eritrean sovereignty..they are so NATIONALISTC ..ready to do anything to defend it. Even the so called opposition party in diaspora
Thanks, James, for your explanation regarding the current affair in the horn of Africa
Thanks so much. It is such an interesting region. I am always fascinated by what is happening there.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR EXPLANATION
Glad it was helpful!
Amazing! Great content. I love this chanel.
well, presented & organized. In this video, I didn't find the following statement of the USA ambassador to the UN, John Foster Dulles, who famously declared: “From the point of view of justice, the the opinions of the Eritrean people must receive consideration.
Nevertheless the strategic interest of the United States in the Red Sea basin and the considerations of security and world peace make it necessary that the country has to be linked with our ally Ethiopia.”
Thanks. This wasn’t really a video about the union of the two countries. But you are right. The US supported the federation to please its then close ally, Ethiopia.
I learn more from a fifteen minute video than twenty-plus years of reading broadsheets and watching the news. Thanks James 🙏
I suggest you stop fake news propaganda and listen to anything that comes out of British intellectuals. Everything he said in this segment are part of the propaganda machine. He knows better that Eritrea won its independence by fighting Ethiopia and its western powers allies plus the Soviet Union. Eritrea a country of almost seven million by comparison a small population although not the 3.6 million he describes, has beaten a country almost twenty times of its size. The only sin Eritrea and its people did was it followed its own economic model of self reliance. Eritrea has a lot of natural resources and doesn’t allow any multinational corporations to come and extract its resources and leaving the country in object poverty. The country is not beholden to the global banking for that it has been punished and sanctioned. Ethiopia is being used as a battering ram against Eritrea for the benefit of the global elite and Abi Ahmed’s infantile ambition.
Thank you so much for your time and well explain
Thank you very much indeed. Have a good weekend.
In Short I would say that the best analysis what has been b/n two states since from back both historys
Keep it up it's Good.
We expect you by the new topics with your best analysis,
Good By
well Done "Dr.James.
Thank you very much!
I would love to hear you talking about South America, specially Brazil, someday. I appreciate your videos, I really like the way you see and analyze the world.
Thanks so much. Great suggestion. I really must try to take a look at Brazil at some point.
I am from Ethiopia and I, like millions of my countrymen, strongly disagree with PM Abiy’s untimely and not well-thought-out approach to the issue of the Red Sea. As a very populous developing country, Ethiopia no doubt needs fair access to a port outlet of its own based on the international law. But how the PM has chosen to go about it makes it seem that the renewed push is more about saving his flagging popularity at home than a genuine search for solution. Having been through lots of internal wars, especially since he came to power, the last thing our people want at this point in time is another conflict. If the the PM is really serious about helping the country grow economically, he should first prove that by daring to end the existing ethnic-based political system, which has been the single biggest threat to the nation’s unity and security.
I just wanted to add that Aseb and Massawa were free to Meles time and it is free as of now but Abiy wanted to shift from his internal problem
Yes, please espeacially Amhara people hands off Eritrea
Thank you. Great points. I watched the video of the speech by Abiy Ahmed. Even without understanding the language, the images used and the way he approached the topic certainly seemed to be a cause for concern. I can see why many observers felt that this was a very worrying development.
Amharas are the main people opposing Abiy Ahmed don't blame them with insufficient information Shabia have always been programming Eritreans to blame everything on Amharas while in the current time they're being persecuted not ruling the country@@iamselam7081
😂😂😂😂😂 Ethiopia is not in a position to start a war with anyone .
JAMES, this video is good, I give you my LIKE .
SELAM be with you, from Eritrea Asmara
Do you have a podcast, Prof.? Thank you for your content.
Thank you. Not at the moment. But I have been thinking about it. It’s really a question of finding the time. Putting these videos together takes a lot of work. I’m not sure I can take on more just now.
There are two crucial points that triggered the war in Tigray which are not mentioned in your report:
1. The war in Tigray was triggered by the TPLF when their militias waged a surprise attack on the Ethiopian federal army, which was stationed in Northern Tigray, in which thousands of federal 🎉army soldiers were massacred and the entire weapon inventory of the Northern Command fell into the hands of the TPLF.
2. Not long after that the TPLF simultaneously attacked 72 targets in Eritrea with missiles.
My Ethiopian and Eritrean brothers & sisters, please do not resort to war.
Please come to the diplomatic table and work things out.
We are better than this, we can work past war.
Sincerely, an African-American brother
Wow wonderful you hit the nail on the head
Thank you so much!
You got a subscriber.nice content peace for both nations ❤
A very well briefed summary which brings too much information for the matter. Longlive Eritrea🇪🇷, Longlive Ethiopia🇪🇹. War is bad
Good analysis, key question is: If Ethiopia were to attack one of the coastal states and even if it did successfully seize a port, how will it deal with the international sanctions and backlash ? I expect that it is almost impossible for the UN to recognise Ethiopia’s illegal seizure of the territory of another sovereign country.
Thanks. You are absolutely right. But we live in strange and worrying times. A lot if the old rules of international relations are collapsing. For instance, Russia might choose to block a Security Council resolution condemning such a move, not just to buy favour with Ethiopia, a key African economy, but also to cover for its own annexation of territory. We can’t rely on the previous self-restraint exercised by countries.
@@JamesKerLindsayTrue, but Ethiopia would still have to contend with heavy sanctions and international isolation, at least in the short term. If it were sanctioned as hard as Russia, it’s economy wouldn’t hold up. Interesting to note, that there could be an avenue for it to seek a military solution though. Thanks!
Ethiopia will save $2 billion fee paid to Djibouti and economic activity will increase either with China which is the main trading partner for imports.The international community wont be harsh like on Russia too as port is important and it was stolen and it is fair to take fair share as Eritrea doesn't need 600km and took it to get paid like a mafia.Also no one cares about international community we all know countries work for their benefit , not for justice or any pother good motive so who cares , the question is will superpowers side with 125M people or 3.5M ?
There is wrong informtion in this first all the Eritrean Christian never want to be in federation with Ethiopia and the second one is it was ethiopia which demanded eritrean land badme in 1998 make sure your analysis is correct before you exposure
@@JamesKerLindsay interesting video and please make a video in the future about the often overlooked Assyrian Independence Movement in the Middle East 🙏.
Great overview, thanks!
Thank you so much!
I enjoyed this video, which I watched right after the video on Somaliland. I'm trying to understand friends from the region and these presentations really help me to listen better
Good explanation. You might want to dig further about the relations between Eplf & Tplf... And about the current Eritrean population even though there are not legitimate sources, as an Eritrean I know it has doubled since our independence.
Well done video as usual James. This is unrelated, but I'm going to be studying European Studies with International Relations next year. What are some jobs/careers in this area you'd say are worth pursuing?
Thanks. And great question. But where to start!? There are so many careers that are open to graduates of international relations and European studies. It is a really great all round degree. So much depends on where you see yourself. I suspect that you may have a better idea by the time you finish. Take the chance to do a wide variety of modules and see where you interests take you.
This broblem was Starting.
When Emarat..blay. double Gime.
Famouse Dpworld. International
Company.locatet. berbera Port
Invested. 280M$ And they tlking Ethiopia to give sem part for investment and %20. But Ethiopia Ofcorse they used before and no broblem that time Was diffren .and its 7years before So this affaire Tourne 7years. Now is Comen True and Talking War.very 😔
Thanks sir. Very interesting analysis.
Also, it would be nice to see a video of the Myanmar situation!
Thank you. Great suggestion. It is on my list. I hope to cover it soon.
Mr. profesor @jameskerlindsay , when i watch it on tv, i dont like cuts you make in videos (changing angles, you in center then on the side). It seems to be unnatural to me (i dind notice this on mobile)
Excellent coverage yet again. On a separate, but somewhat related issue, I have 2 Ethiopian employees and what they tell me about Chinese influence in Ethiopia is truly shocking. In many ways it is now a country in flux.
Thanks. Yes, China has been steadily increasing its influence across Africa. The whole issue of Beijing's debt diplomacy is incredibly important. Interestingly, nearby Somaliland chose to build closer links to Taiwan.
@@JamesKerLindsay I'm loath to be a CCP apologist but the majority of debt owned is from western commercial loans. It is true that the CCP has different ideas about deferral and cancelation of debt, largely related to domestic political concerns about the provinces not being able to use foreign debt forgiveness as a rational for domestic debt forgiveness.
Haven't those employess of yours told you about how the U.S made the life of Ethiopians miserable by first, bringing the ethnicity-worshipping TPLF dictators to power, and then when they finally lost power in 2018 arming/backing them so they could fight one of the most devastating wars in human history?
The west always points fingers at China while they're the ones doing unimmaginable stuff to developing nations.
@@JamesKerLindsay South Korea*
What ??? He is just repeating bunch of lies of the TPLF junta who killed 1.6 millions of people in Tigray and Afar !!! Maybe that makes you Happy?!
Good analysis Prof.
It was clear the move by Abiy Ahmed to normalise relations with Eritrea was a tactical move from his part. His rule was threatened by TPLF and he needed help. Now that the threat from the TPLF is gone, abiy backstabed Eritrea as if his throne was not secured by the critical help offered by Eritrea. Surprising
Exactly!
አኛ ኢትዮጵያውያን ከኤርትራው ያን ጋር በፍቅር በሰላም በወንድማማችነት በእህታማማችነት አብረን በጎረቤትነት እንኖረለን! ፈጣሪ ከኛ ጋር ነዉ ! ምቀኛን ቀናተኛን እግዚአብሔር ልቦና ይስጣችሁ!
yup we gonna take our land back you guys had that land for over 50 yrs and u never used it properly and the worst and poorest country in the world . . . so let us show you how to prosper on resource and how not to sleep on it!
@@narion2451dream on. You are the weaks army in Africa. You can't even defeat the Amhara groups . not to forget you would have been lost the war(tigray war) ,if you didn't get help from Eritrea . So bro, wake up
Ethiopia has a genius leader.
Another great video man 😭😭😭😭
Dear Professor, i am researching for my MA on the challenges of AU to resolve the conflict in Tigray. Can you give me a spare of time to answer my research questions?
thanks professor I was amazed with your knowledge about our region!! Really fascinating. But a minor mistake you made about Eritrea's 1952 federation with ethiopia was due to the Americans interest in the region.they thought they can only hold their interest if eritrean was not to its independence.
2 was about the tigrayans in Ethiopian and the tigrigna in Eritrea are not the same. We have alo of differences to be considered as one people. We have different national identities and different psychological made up. We Eritreans dont call our selves tigrayans we identify ourselves as Tigringna Ethnicity and our identity is Eritreans. The Ethiopians tigrayans are called tigrayans even their lnd is called tigray and it doesnt have any connection with us except during the axumite kingdom before 500 years.
3 you cant call badme a tigrayan village. It is an Eritrean village and thats why it was given back to its rightful owners Eritreans.
4 the tigray war started because of the TPLF (tigray peoples liberation front) attack on the Ethiopians military base in their region. The base was their own country's military base which was there to defend them but they back stabbed them.
These were the minor mistakes I thought you made but if am wrong I hope you could help me understand. Thank you for you unbiased and educational video. Its hard to find such a video on RUclips nowadays. I APPRECIATE YOUR VIDEO AND YOUR PRESENTATION.
Thank you so much. You are of course correct about the US and the decision on federation. Washington clearly favoured this as it would buy favour from Ethiopia, it’s close ally at the time. Very good point. (I didn’t cover it merely due to time constraints.) And thanks so much for the point about the identity issue. This is really interesting and parallels situations we see elsewhere. What constitutes a national identity is fascinating and incredibly complex. Language is obviously a key component. But there is far more to it than that alone. Thanks again.
@@JamesKerLindsay thank you professor I look forward to watching your next videos. I really love your content!
@@suelg1160 if you have the same language you are the same people and one people. Everyone else that you write is emotional.
First of all the isn’t such Eritrean identity by this logic what are you like 9 different ethnicity? National identity and ethnicity are different, we share language, culture, tradition, all our values with Ethiopian Tigrayans except we live in different country, can you name one thing that differ us??
@@bitowabrahaeri1159one example of difference is that u guys copy and paste from eritreans 😂
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Wow!! I take off my hat to you.
Sir you are a true journalist and how journalism should be, tell the truth the honest truth.
From the beginning of history between Ethiopia and Eritrea which Ethnic or religious group wanted to disconnect from mother land to the present time who is waging war.
Thank thank you. The young Ethiopians and Eritreans to hear this honest journalism while respecting their choice.
No matter what the outcome is between Ethiopia and Eritrea please continue your honest information. I have shared your video to my friends and family members.
Thanks Prof! 👍🏻👍🏻
Many thanks, Peter. Have a great weekend!
Thanks you for the analysis. One mistake that you said that you need to correct, though:
1. Why do you feel or said the Eritrean ethnically Semitic are Tigryans? Its true both people speak the same language, of course with different accents, but that doesn’t make Eritreans Tigryans. It’s like because Canadians speak English, then they are Americans as well merely for speaking English as the Americans. So, I kindly ask you to correct this misinterprentation.
We will never make war never , we are brothers ❤️
Yes we don't want a war with any country sorry don't exaggerate please calm down thank you
That's your wish! There isn't any indication of turning the two countries into another round of war - it's simply addressing the concerns for further discussion and negotiations, given the dynamics of the country!
That's not his wish, we all heard it loud and clear. That's the wish of your PM and many delusional Ethiopians. He is not looking to do business, but own a port. Eritrea doesn't care about your dam or airline shares, no money or land will be enough to buy a piece of our port, because it's not for sale. Even if Ethiopia becomes 300 million, it's not our problem, it's your problem, you should strive to make good friendships and business deals with your neighbors, and not threaten them. Ethiopia was, and is and will ever be LANDLOCKED, get over it.
It is interesting that Ethiopians do not have civility to respect each other constantly experiencing internal conflicts and yet they want to add another problem. This seems a clear case of biting off more than you can chew. What is puzzling is that this is done with a leadership of a person who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister is a very immature person. He made a peace deal with the northern Ethiopian region last year in November 2022 after a bloody war that continued for two years. After couple months of the peace agreement he began another war with another region in the north( Amhara) and the government is not able to win the war until now. In fact the government is loosing the power in the Amhara region. Now he wants to wage another war against neighboring Eritrea. This guy is not normal and I wonder what the noble prize committee are thinking about the award they gave him in 2019/2020.
And he's managed to piss of both of the most friendly states in somalia to his govt (Somaliland and puntland) as well as the federal govt even the the Somali region of Ethiopia which is 30% of the country has publicly denounced any attempt to make an illegal incursion
@@skp8748 you’re right. I have read Somalia and Djibouti have also condemned his statements regarding ownership to the Red Sea. This guy claims he is an evangelist but how can any religious person love war this much? He is the most dangerous person I have ever seen. As an Eritrean citizen, all Eritreans living abroad will go back home to defend their country from any Ethiopian invasion. They tried it in 1998-2000 and they failed miserably. Somalia should also do the same and this situation should unite Somalians as well. As long as Aby Ahmed stays stays in power, the Horn of Africa will not move forward. He has to go and trust me he will be gone soon.
@@peacetoallofus7428 I don't get it all it does is fracture Ethiopia for the sake of oromos and unites Somalia and Eritrea in hostility against Ethiopia.... How did he EVER get a Nobel peace prize
This is a good summary of the story of Ethio-Eritrean conflict. Ethiopia's quest to regain access to the sea us fair and just, but this should be achieved without resort to war. There have been enough of that in the region. During the height of war between EPLF and the then Ethiopia's govt, access to the sea was often discussed and offered during peace negotiations. Etuopia's access to the sea will help the flourishing of both countries
Eritrea gave Ethiopia free access to Red Sea ports in Assab in the early 90s after its independence but then Ethiopia invaded Eritrean sovereign territory Badme in 2000. Then things got sour obviously. Also Ethiopia doesn’t even want to aid Eritrea’s economy by paying to use the ports which they must pay fees as any other landlocked country so instead they used Djibouti.
Please make a video on the Assyrian autonomy/independence movement in the Middle East.
i do like your channel, good geo-political topics
Thanks so much! I really appreciate it.
Don't have to be any war.Eritrea and Ethiopia must unite and grow.Share the sea space.
Don't tell us to unite with Abyssinia. They practiced slavery until 1942 and worked with Europeans and American government but you say Eritrea should unite with them?
🙃
It would be very difficult for countries to unite if they don't get on, which is the case here.
@@cabalamat2289 Unite, or consume?
On 6:16 you made an error. It was after the annexation of Eritrea by Ethiopia the war for independence started. I know this because my father told me. My dad was a member of Rabita al islamia. The Ethiopian emperor bought some of the members of the Eritrean government, some went to prison and some escaped prosecution by the emperor. So first annexation and then the war for independence.
I was surprised, how such a good proof could make such huge Error, but it seems deliberate to be honest. The relevance of the historical causes & effects are vital
Port is necessary for Ethiopia; however, this can be achieved without war. War is not the answer.
Thanks Prof for this excellent presentation
Thanks so much!
@@JamesKerLindsay you are most welcome
Society in 2023:
“For five minutes, could we just not start wars? FOR FIVE MINUTES?!”
Ethiopia did not get the upper hand in 1998 to 2000 war they attacked 3 times with 3 different armies then they where crushed, Eritrean army kept holding a position fighting and keep retreating to get the enemy deep in to Eritrea and far from supply lines the deeper the Ethiopia army rushed into Eritrea thinking they had the upper hand by the time they realized the trap and looked behind them at the heavy loses they took
Shabia's army was crushed in 1998/2000 and Ethiopia able to enforce 25km inside Eritrea as a buffer zone.
I have one question; Is this your observation/view or this is a fact you’re presenting? Thank you.
GOD BLESS ETHIOPIA 🇪🇹 and THE PEOPLE 🇪🇹. GOD IS ALWAYS GOOD. PLEASE LET PEACE and PROSPERITY GROW. Please don't blackmail Ethiopia. ETHIOPIA needs to get back its historical/natural resources back.
Well presented and deep analyses of the Eri-Ethio historic and current situation. It is fair and unbiased analysed. There is always a bias toward the Ethiopian side from money reporters and they did this for their interest. It is clear Abiys day dream for the Eritrean Sea and this not different from the dream of his former fathers. But the consequence will be dismal for any attempts. Although the adgenda for Abiy's illigitimate claim for sea ownership is a home assignment from external for like th EU and US to destabilise the region his attempt to make this the claim public is a sign of political immaturity. Eritrean people and government is very generous for the people of Ethiopia and PIA is always working for peace and stability of Ethiopia, however any Ethiopian leaders came on power would like to remain in chair on th expenses of both people.
Thank you very much. I certainly tried give a factual and unbiased explanation of what is happening, and why so many observers are so nervous about the recent comments by Abiy.
I agree
I feel there isn't enough content like this about Africa around
Excellent !!!! I am Eritrean and the history was summarized very well!
I doubt you are Eritrean and if you are well you do not know your history.
Thank you.
Thank you so much Professor, Jim. It's a remarkable analysis of Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and Eritrea 🇪🇷 situation. As always we are grateful to Prof. Next time we will invite you to look into the situation in the Gambella and South Omo Valley regions respectively.
Have a great weekend 🎉
If there is no any bilateral agreement , Ethiopia has nothing to do with the Red sea Ports at all . Infact according to the low of the sea ( 1982 ) Ethiopia has a right to use the sea ports of neighbouring contries but only after a peaceful negotation .
YeH but you should know it is not right, but it is a favor. Demanding is not asking.
No there isn’t such law that enforces or guarantee any country to allow another country to use port under any circumstances. What 1982 you’re talking about, Lord knows.
Unless there is agreement between such parties.
Thanks ❤
Eritrea is pretty much surrounding Ethiopia’s boarder. it doesn’t hurt them to compromise on the red sea and allow Ethiopia to use its portion of the port. Ethiopia can also compromise on one time payment or give its portion of its land to Eritrea. war should not be the option.
Eritrea never denies access to the Red Sea. Even the Eritrean president said they can use it for free, but ethiopia want to own it! That is a problem. They will never own it. Maybe he( Professor) doesn't understand the language to catch every word Ethiopian President said. Even the state news tv when using the Ethiopia map, they include Eritrea map as Ethiopia. They want Eritrea part of Ethiopia.
Most likely ethiopia will go for Eritrea. Djibouti is internationally protected and somalia got virocous fighters
Ethiopian leaders should make a condition to share the sea before the referendum of Eriterea but the Ethiopian leaders were week and the country were fragmented at that time.Ethiopia should live without direct access to sea and have friendship with its neighbours.
Eritrea became a failed state thanks to isayas. They lost freedom with him
🛑 ✋🛑✋🛑✋ Abiy Ahmed to think war mostly 🥰lovely people 🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷 Eritrea people
Thanks for persian subtitle ❤
Ethiopia does need a port, and its neighbors can't choke this reasonable desire. thus, a fair outcome would be a win-win business deal (which can ref other successful deals, and can be brokered by respectful 3rd parties) to allow Ethiopia to have business control of a red sea port. Note: business control, not transferring sovereignty.
These are dreams 🥱
Yeah but Ethiopia aint asking peacefully THATS THE ISSUE.
It would be interesting to have a video about the aftermath of the tigray war when it comes to the Fano militias, how ethnic militias once finding refuge in erachother countries are faring and what’s the ideological discourse and rhetoric that each ethnicity espouses to support their claims
I forgot to say you're amazing too. The best.
My god what amazing video, and deep knowledge I am such a fan of your professor. I hope someday you come and speak at University of Bristol, I would love to hear you live.
We the Eritreans will do anything and everything to defend our land and sea !! 🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷🇪🇷
Isu worst dicision was to participate in tigray war now nobody will condemn ethio troops if they enter Eritrea because Eritrean troops did the same
@@Robi-qq7is You mean Tigray made a stupid decision by firing missiles to Eritrea. By the way, Ethiopia can't handle Fano at this time.
We the ethiopans will do anything and everything to return back our sea🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹
@@salamuapp3510 keep dreaming kondafat agame
We don't need any conflict to grow together. Eritrea was part of Ethiopia. Why do you deny access to port? It is immoral.
As Somali 🇸🇴 i wish That Ethiopia 🇪🇹 and Eritrea 🇪🇷 will be peaceful and Allies
Taas Ma dhacayso sxb waa in dagaal dheer lo diyaar garaabo
@@gulledabdi6571 Nasiib daro sxb Dalkeena waa midka ugu liito ciidan ahaan Malihin Ciidamada Cirka iyo Ciidamada Bada Dagaal hadaan Ethiopia la galno Guuldaro ayeey u badan tahey.
@@abdirahmaanmohamed1582wa maya mesha mxad modi iney fadhiyo habashidan dowlada waweyn aya dabada karixayan o raban iney Eritrea madaxa ugaliyan dagal si ey oga takhalusan Eritrea xukumo hadi usurta galileo weysana ey somalia madaxa ugaliyan so dowlada waweyn aya daba kasocda somalia dagalki Ogadeeniya etopia wan jabiney lkn soviet aya uheliyey sidas aye somalia did ogu guratey manta iyo somalia dhacif tahyna Masar iuo turkia garad tagen
Thanks clear explanation professor.
Thank you very much indeed. I hope it helped.
This is non biased comment on the issue, thank you!
There is a tension going on in Amhara region and the support for Abiy's regime is deteriorating/ed and I take his comment for finding some agenda to get some popular support from the public.
Yet, we, Ethiopian need peace than any other things.
Unbiased journalism , shades light on countries that don't get attention and people suddenly getting surprised when a conflict rises, thank you sir
Thank you very much indeed. I appreciate it enormously.
Thank you
AS AN ETHIOPIAN I SAY THANK YOU FOR NOT TAKING SIDES ON THE NARRATIVE . THIS IS THE MOST UNBIASED PRESENTATION OF THE BACKGROUND OF ETHIO-ERITREAN HISTORY I CAME ACROSS IN RUclips OR ELSEWHERE .
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.