great video and fun exercise. the real 'value' of a property is what someone is willing to pay for it. I can't imagine someone paying less than $250M if it were to go for sale today and that's because the buyer is taking over a business as opposed to a residential property they can build new (in the case of someone like Ken Griffin).
The fact that a NY Judge valued the property at 18million when that doesn't even buy you a Brownstown in Manhattan anymore is wild. The property spans the whole width of the state. Who can say that?
@@undefined69695 You have no clue what you are talking about. Even as a club, it is worth over $200m.... And again, maybe you didnt follow the video, but that is the Deed to the HOME! Not the real estate....
Deed restriction or not, it is A RESIDENCE. The President of the Freakin’ United States lives there. Mar-A-Lago is over 17 contiguous oceanfront acres with a beachfront. 1 Acres on the water in Palm Beach is selling for $75MIL per Acres. Let’s just round down to $50MIL/Acre, that would put land value at $850MIL. Plus for the Club, 5x EBITA is about $50MIL for the business aspect. So YES it’s worth what someone is willing to pay for it, but normal business practice to place a valuation based on comps for the real estate. And basic financials + balance sheet for the business. The land is easily worth $850MIL with structures and the club itself as a business is worth $50MIL.
The White Elephant in the room: Mar-a-Lago's value is not straightforward. The historic Palm Beach property has *deed restrictions* which mean it can only be used as a private club. The land cannot be subdivided, and it requires considerable preservation expenses (ca. 14 million per year) for the estate, which was built in 1927 for businesswoman and socialite Marjorie Merriweather Post. This deed came about in the 1990s when *Mr Trump said Mar-a-Lago was too expensive to be preserved as a private residence, calling it a "white elephant" that was "almost impossible to sell".* -> So, Trump considered it himself "unsellable"... Changing it to a private club meant he could use these hefty membership fees to help pay for preservation and upkeep. Rosalind Clarke, a Palm Beach real estate agent since the 1980s and a former president of the Palm Beach Board of Realtors, told BBC News the problem with valuing Mar-a-Lago came down to these restrictions. Ms Clarke explained that the value is based on profits of the club and "not the value of the land". She said if the deed restrictions did not exist, "the value of the property would be significantly higher". Between 2011 and 2021, Trump is accused of valuing Mar-a-Lago as if it had no deed restrictions. -- My understanding as per these public records is that the club owns the land and property thus if he sells the business/club he also sells the land/property with it... and if this business sells it will be valued solely based on profit multiples because of the deed restrictions which more or less mean that the land/property (which cannot be changed or subdivided and must be preserved exactly as it is) is the business.
@@pauliewalnuts2527 Wrong, the market decides the value of the property and not the owner and the market will always price in the deed on this property and hence not accept Trumps valuation...
Would it be hard for Trump to get the deed restriction removed? I could not imagine that it would be that hard. Why is this deed restriction on the property in the first place?
This is the 1 issue for me that proved the Trump prosecution was a political hit job. To say this property is $18 million is delusional. It’s worth $1 billion
There is a small empty piece of property near Mar-A-Lago that costs $200 million dollars, how can Mar-A-Lago cost under $200 million dollars if it's historic and much bigger?
I agree Scott Mar a Lago land value is $700 million. If Ken Griffin future home value will be $1 billion, somebody will pay $500 million for Mar O Lago house and country club business.
Hi, love the video. I work in commercial real estate . Because this is real estate, closer to a hotel, I think a better way to value the business itself would be using a cap rate. Anyone familiar with the matter would agree using a 5% cap rate is pretty appropriate which would be a 20X multiple of the net income, which is around $20 million. =$400MM
It was built in the 20’s and half its noi is due to trump’s name 😂. No way this is worth the same cap rate as a new building 😂. Any new owner would see membership and rates decline significantly 😂.
@@avayu2289 No, the point is that when you are a serious buyer you, of course, have done your research and you know what the seller can reasonably ask.
Push all the bulidings over, parcel into lots and sell at $30-40 or even $50 mil/acre as any other land would be worth in th area, that could possibly fetch $850 mil! That judge is smokin crazy shat!! Once again proves that many institutionally educated individuals, ie: "Judges, lawyers" are just not that smart!!
You scoff at Trump calling it a national treasure, but when Post donated it to Florida it was quickly made a National Historical Site. So yeah, it's sort of a national treasure that the government felt worth designation and preservation.
$500M? Maybe check how much the property is making now. It’s making $40M to $60M annually in the last three years. In addition, since the wish of the first owner has been fulfilled, she wanted to make it a presidential home and now it is. Being a property for a president in addition of being historical, this property will be worth than than $500M
Homes on South Palm Beach Island, known as Billionaire's Row, with a common size of roughly 10,000 square feet with 100 feet of Atlantic Ocean beachfront, that stretches to the Intercoastal, have ranged from $20 million at the bottom end to $40 million since around 2014. Once covid hit and the land rush from New York financiers for Billionaire's Row property started, demand pushed prices into the $50 million plus range. Ken Griffin owned Gemini at the south end of Palm Beach island. It is a 15 acre estate with 6 buildings in the compound with roughly 38,000 square feet interior space. It has a "pitching green", tennis court, half-court basketball court and pool. It is ocean to intercoastal. It was listed at $200 million but over a couple of years the price was reduced dramatically in the mid 2010's. The last price I saw was $115 million. The next time I looked it said Griffin had bought it. I'm not clear if he still owns it or if he flipped it in an off market transaction. But, just on the facilities and acreage, it has to be at least $100 million in market value...probably more since vacancies on Billionaire's Row are at a premium.
Most huge estates carry huge maintenance hence they always have to turn it into a cash-flow business such as a member club. And it would be valued as both a business and the real property asset that the business sits on and owned. County assessment would be lower as it pertains to just the property for taxation purposes. Also the condition of the property overall - geological positioning and such.
That was great. I might add though,regarding the 3,000 billionaires and a dozen who would make bids... Trump would NEVER undersell his property. So what is "undersell"? One would have to assume what HE thought would think it could sell,if he weren't in a financial downfall. I believe bidders would want it SIMPLY because Trump owned it,love him it hate him, and if he was doing well it may actually reach $1 billion. If however, during a fiscal downfall (not likely,just my opinion ) it WOULD go for under half a $billion. Theyre buying MORE than the estate. They're buying a part of the Trump "brand",so I believe it should go for much more. Why? Because, again, who could be more admired or detested?I can thinknof no one since Howard Hughes. Anyway, great video and greatly appreciated 👏
Just the land alone cost over 800M $ now if we add everything else & the historic value of this amazing glamorous building with stunning architecture inside out, then the sale value of all that can't be lower than 1B $ and imo way higher than that, anyone who say otherwise is a moron.
Maralago is way too valuable, in addition to the land, real estate, and business, it comes with the "good will". That name comes with value. Just like the white house, it comes with value
People are forgetting the Mar e Lago house itself is extremely valuable. It was the most expensive non-royal residence in the whole world back when it was built.
Wow! This is what happens when RUclipsrs don’t do their homework. “Mar-a-Lago is not valued by the county as if it were a luxury home because it is a private club. Trump in 1995 signed a deed of conservation and preservation easement, which means he ceded the right to use the property for anything other than a social club. That means the property appraiser uses an income-based valuation for the property, Becky Robinson, a spokesperson for the property appraiser, told PolitiFact. "Mar-a-Lago is one of nine deed-restricted clubs in Palm Beach County, and all are valued in the same manner," Robinson said. "The income approach to valuation capitalizes the net operating income that private clubs could generate. This means that the value of the property is determined based on the amount of income that it generates as a club." That’s different from determining the value of a house, when appraisers consider recent sales of nearby homes, and determine a comparable value. “
The chart you put up was a multiple of EBITDA not revenue. EBITDA is profit. Marlago doesnt generate $30mm in profit its generates about $3MM in profit. Which makes marl ago worth $20mm to $30mm. You missed the biggest issue with the property and it's 100% of the reason why Trump got in so much trouble. Trump gave up the development rights in the 90s in exchange for a tax break. Typical pennywise pound foolish. Marlago is now a club with no ability to be develop, torn down etc. So the only person who'd want to buy it is someone who wants to operate a rather modestly profitable club which requires a ton of annual maintenance annually which is going up every year. Please correct this major error with your video. The is the reason why people think that Trump is unfairly targeted. when the facts are revealed all of a sudden its obvious that you have someone misrepresenting an asset worth no development rights as worth $1B when they are worth 3% of that amount.
Hard to compare it to the Ken Griffin lot. He has much bigger beach front lot. MarLago has a smaller beach front lot and you need to cross the road. My guess is around 200 million
Good comp work...$45 million is a solid comp for a developed 1 acre in palm beach. So if you were to subdivide Mar o Lago and not develop it would be in the range of $400 million. I can see $700 million if you were to subdivide it AND develop all those lots with luxury mansions. Also, the fact that is in the pathway of the airport and the beach lot is disconnected, makes it less valuable in my opinion. Now Ken Griffin's lot...now that's PRIME real estate. True Oceanfront and away from the busy streets
The important story is the corrupt judiciary. The feminine basal mind has a preference for ascribing cause and effect to subjective emotional valuation.
Wellllllll, as others point out Mar-a-Lago is a designated National Historic Landmark. It cannot be changed. That's just slightly important to the value :) If it was a free lot then of course its value would be exotic. In the hundreds of millions. But since it isn't, its actual value could be much closer to zero. Also it's slightly wrong to say it has a 27 hole golf course. I believe it has a putting course but no actual golf course. So maybe an opportunity to redo this video :)
@ It’s more likely that aunty Kamala will be behind bars when she fails to settle her 20 million dollar debt. 🥲 I heard she even went for an interview at 7-11 but was rejected for being intellectually challenged.
Musk wealth is growing now at some $3B per DAY since trump got elected, so yeah, Musk can pay one billion easily for this little home, that generates a lot of carbon dioxide LOL
I could live in the crawl space if it has a crawl space..if not mayb a car up on blocks back yard .that keep hillbillies for Trump happy...interview ..mr.post can u turn off the engine..no can do cooking dinner on manifold..
Most of the comments on this not very well researched video fall into 2 categories: 1. Mar-a-Lago is a business, not a residence, you can't subdivide it. Trump did that to be penny wise, pound foolish to save money on taxes. It is worth around 20m. 2. MR TRUMP IS A GENIUS AND ITS WORTH A BILLION Sorry to find out you're part of that 2nd category.
If Mar-a-Lago is worth $18 million, then the Mona Lisa is worth only $20 million.
Letitia James 18M would just be the deposit if anyone wanted to buy it
😂true
reading the comment section shows TDS is life and well
great video and fun exercise.
the real 'value' of a property is what someone is willing to pay for it. I can't imagine someone paying less than $250M if it were to go for sale today and that's because the buyer is taking over a business as opposed to a residential property they can build new (in the case of someone like Ken Griffin).
The fact that a NY Judge valued the property at 18million when that doesn't even buy you a Brownstown in Manhattan anymore is wild. The property spans the whole width of the state. Who can say that?
But Letitia James and the judge said it's only worth 18 million! 🤡
Hmmmm
The court cannot value something on hypothetical nonsense like this video. It’s deed restricted as a club therefore valuing it as such makes sense.
Actually Trump’s own financials show it’s worth $18 million when he pays taxes on it.
The court only used the numbers Trump’s team gave them hence $18 million lol
@@undefined69695 You have no clue what you are talking about. Even as a club, it is worth over $200m.... And again, maybe you didnt follow the video, but that is the Deed to the HOME! Not the real estate....
It’s 37,000sf including a 20,000sf ballroom.
Good point
Deed restriction or not, it is A RESIDENCE. The President of the Freakin’ United States lives there. Mar-A-Lago is over 17 contiguous oceanfront acres with a beachfront. 1 Acres on the water in Palm Beach is selling for $75MIL per Acres. Let’s just round down to $50MIL/Acre, that would put land value at $850MIL. Plus for the Club, 5x EBITA is about $50MIL for the business aspect. So YES it’s worth what someone is willing to pay for it, but normal business practice to place a valuation based on comps for the real estate. And basic financials + balance sheet for the business. The land is easily worth $850MIL with structures and the club itself as a business is worth $50MIL.
The White Elephant in the room:
Mar-a-Lago's value is not straightforward. The historic Palm Beach property has *deed restrictions* which mean it can only be used as a private club. The land cannot be subdivided, and it requires considerable preservation expenses (ca. 14 million per year) for the estate, which was built in 1927 for businesswoman and socialite Marjorie Merriweather Post. This deed came about in the 1990s when *Mr Trump said Mar-a-Lago was too expensive to be preserved as a private residence, calling it a "white elephant" that was "almost impossible to sell".* -> So, Trump considered it himself "unsellable"...
Changing it to a private club meant he could use these hefty membership fees to help pay for preservation and upkeep.
Rosalind Clarke, a Palm Beach real estate agent since the 1980s and a former president of the Palm Beach Board of Realtors, told BBC News the problem with valuing Mar-a-Lago came down to these restrictions. Ms Clarke explained that the value is based on profits of the club and "not the value of the land". She said if the deed restrictions did not exist, "the value of the property would be significantly higher".
Between 2011 and 2021, Trump is accused of valuing Mar-a-Lago as if it had no deed restrictions.
--
My understanding as per these public records is that the club owns the land and property thus if he sells the business/club he also sells the land/property with it... and if this business sells it will be valued solely based on profit multiples because of the deed restrictions which more or less mean that the land/property (which cannot be changed or subdivided and must be preserved exactly as it is) is the business.
I was waiting for Scott to talk about this, nice work on your research.
what is straight forward is the government does not decide the worth of property. the owner does
@@pauliewalnuts2527 Wrong, the market decides the value of the property and not the owner and the market will always price in the deed on this property and hence not accept Trumps valuation...
@@pauliewalnuts2527the owner does?? LMAO
Would it be hard for Trump to get the deed restriction removed? I could not imagine that it would be that hard.
Why is this deed restriction on the property in the first place?
This is the 1 issue for me that proved the Trump prosecution was a political hit job. To say this property is $18 million is delusional. It’s worth $1 billion
There is a small empty piece of property near Mar-A-Lago that costs $200 million dollars, how can Mar-A-Lago cost under $200 million dollars if it's historic and much bigger?
Yes my friend, a biding war would fetch a cool billion. Enjoyed the information!
I agree Scott Mar a Lago land value is $700 million. If Ken Griffin future home value will be $1 billion, somebody will pay $500 million for Mar O Lago house and country club business.
Mar-a-Lago is the most valuable lot in Palm Beach, at least until Ken Griffin's mega compound will be finished.
Also will depend on what kinda mansion he’ll build there. American billionaires don’t build like they used to back in gilded age.
Hi, love the video.
I work in commercial real estate . Because this is real estate, closer to a hotel, I think a better way to value the business itself would be using a cap rate. Anyone familiar with the matter would agree using a 5% cap rate is pretty appropriate which would be a 20X multiple of the net income, which is around $20 million. =$400MM
It was built in the 20’s and half its noi is due to trump’s name 😂. No way this is worth the same cap rate as a new building 😂. Any new owner would see membership and rates decline significantly 😂.
@@hoppingrabbit9849 you can use the same logic to value any branded hotel.
Any buyer can keep Trumps name and brand.
If you have to ask,you can't afford it..😂😂
😂
😄😄😄
Au contraire, the best property investors get down to the studs in negotiations.
@@avayu2289 No, the point is that when you are a serious buyer you, of course, have done your research and you know what the seller can reasonably ask.
Sell it as a business it goes together with the property.
Push all the bulidings over, parcel into lots and sell at $30-40 or even $50 mil/acre as any other land would be worth in th area, that could possibly fetch $850 mil! That judge is smokin crazy shat!! Once again proves that many institutionally educated individuals, ie: "Judges, lawyers" are just not that smart!!
If Mar-A-Lago was worth 18 million I would have bought it already. 😎
@@surfstarcc1 Yeah,,I see plenty of smaller properties go for waaay more..
Got a like for being chill
You scoff at Trump calling it a national treasure, but when Post donated it to Florida it was quickly made a National Historical Site. So yeah, it's sort of a national treasure that the government felt worth designation and preservation.
Good step-by-step analysis.
$500M? Maybe check how much the property is making now. It’s making $40M to $60M annually in the last three years. In addition, since the wish of the first owner has been fulfilled, she wanted to make it a presidential home and now it is. Being a property for a president in addition of being historical, this property will be worth than than $500M
Homes on South Palm Beach Island, known as Billionaire's Row, with a common size of roughly 10,000 square feet with 100 feet of Atlantic Ocean beachfront, that stretches to the Intercoastal, have ranged from $20 million at the bottom end to $40 million since around 2014.
Once covid hit and the land rush from New York financiers for Billionaire's Row property started, demand pushed prices into the $50 million plus range.
Ken Griffin owned Gemini at the south end of Palm Beach island. It is a 15 acre estate with 6 buildings in the compound with roughly 38,000 square feet interior space. It has a "pitching green", tennis court, half-court basketball court and pool. It is ocean to intercoastal.
It was listed at $200 million but over a couple of years the price was reduced dramatically in the mid 2010's. The last price I saw was $115 million. The next time I looked it said Griffin had bought it.
I'm not clear if he still owns it or if he flipped it in an off market transaction. But, just on the facilities and acreage, it has to be at least $100 million in market value...probably more since vacancies on Billionaire's Row are at a premium.
I think Larry Ellison bought that, haven’t looked to see if he sold it. 🤔
Most huge estates carry huge maintenance hence they always have to turn it into a cash-flow business such as a member club. And it would be valued as both a business and the real property asset that the business sits on and owned. County assessment would be lower as it pertains to just the property for taxation purposes. Also the condition of the property overall - geological positioning and such.
That was great. I might add though,regarding the 3,000 billionaires and a dozen who would make bids...
Trump would NEVER undersell his property. So what is "undersell"? One would have to assume what HE thought would think it could sell,if he weren't in a financial downfall.
I believe bidders would want it SIMPLY because Trump owned it,love him it hate him, and if he was doing well it may actually reach $1 billion. If however, during a fiscal downfall (not likely,just my opinion ) it WOULD go for under half a $billion. Theyre buying MORE than the estate. They're buying a part of the Trump "brand",so I believe it should go for much more.
Why? Because, again, who could be more admired or detested?I can thinknof no one since Howard Hughes.
Anyway, great video and greatly appreciated 👏
Great video,,, though at around 12:30 you mention Mara Lago brings in $30mm in revenue and then you look at EBITDA multiples.
LAtest annual MarLago figures are 50mil annually.
Just like The One. Someone paid what they wanted to pay
Just the land alone cost over 800M $ now if we add everything else & the historic value of this amazing glamorous building with stunning architecture inside out, then the sale value of all that can't be lower than 1B $ and imo way higher than that, anyone who say otherwise is a moron.
My single toilet room is bigger than this
$420 million
Maralago is way too valuable, in addition to the land, real estate, and business, it comes with the "good will". That name comes with value. Just like the white house, it comes with value
People are forgetting the Mar e Lago house itself is extremely valuable. It was the most expensive non-royal residence in the whole world back when it was built.
330 million is my best guess
EBITDA = Earnings before Interest, Depreciation and Amortization and not revenue
EBITDA is not Revenue
Its like Bohemian Grove without the owl statues
McDonald's sells franchises, but owns the real estate then leases it to the franchiser
The value is of course more than 18 million !
Wow! This is what happens when RUclipsrs don’t do their homework.
“Mar-a-Lago is not valued by the county as if it were a luxury home because it is a private club. Trump in 1995 signed a deed of conservation and preservation easement, which means he ceded the right to use the property for anything other than a social club.
That means the property appraiser uses an income-based valuation for the property, Becky Robinson, a spokesperson for the property appraiser, told PolitiFact.
"Mar-a-Lago is one of nine deed-restricted clubs in Palm Beach County, and all are valued in the same manner," Robinson said. "The income approach to valuation capitalizes the net operating income that private clubs could generate. This means that the value of the property is determined based on the amount of income that it generates as a club."
That’s different from determining the value of a house, when appraisers consider recent sales of nearby homes, and determine a comparable value. “
My guess is that around 100-200 Million. Closer to 200 million.
Before whatching this video, if it changed my mind.
Good guess
Bro it's worth more than 600 million to 1 billion dollars.
Bwhahahahhahahahahahahahahhahahahah
@@NaveenKumars-fy2wxbro it’s worth fitty trillion at least.
The chart you put up was a multiple of EBITDA not revenue. EBITDA is profit. Marlago doesnt generate $30mm in profit its generates about $3MM in profit. Which makes marl ago worth $20mm to $30mm. You missed the biggest issue with the property and it's 100% of the reason why Trump got in so much trouble. Trump gave up the development rights in the 90s in exchange for a tax break. Typical pennywise pound foolish. Marlago is now a club with no ability to be develop, torn down etc. So the only person who'd want to buy it is someone who wants to operate a rather modestly profitable club which requires a ton of annual maintenance annually which is going up every year. Please correct this major error with your video. The is the reason why people think that Trump is unfairly targeted. when the facts are revealed all of a sudden its obvious that you have someone misrepresenting an asset worth no development rights as worth $1B when they are worth 3% of that amount.
My guess is 300 million
The real question is why does he have an exact replica of the "Arc of the Covenant" there....? True story look it up. Exact replica.
Interesting … I’ll look it up
If sold today (Jan 2025), its worth $850mil
Hard to compare it to the Ken Griffin lot. He has much bigger beach front lot. MarLago has a smaller beach front lot and you need to cross the road. My guess is around 200 million
10x revenue is $500 mill bare minimum.
Good comp work...$45 million is a solid comp for a developed 1 acre in palm beach. So if you were to subdivide Mar o Lago and not develop it would be in the range of $400 million. I can see $700 million if you were to subdivide it AND develop all those lots with luxury mansions.
Also, the fact that is in the pathway of the airport and the beach lot is disconnected, makes it less valuable in my opinion.
Now Ken Griffin's lot...now that's PRIME real estate. True Oceanfront and away from the busy streets
Easily 2 billions
It's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it and not one red cent more.
The important story is the corrupt judiciary. The feminine basal mind has a preference for ascribing cause and effect to subjective emotional valuation.
Wellllllll, as others point out Mar-a-Lago is a designated National Historic Landmark. It cannot be changed. That's just slightly important to the value :)
If it was a free lot then of course its value would be exotic. In the hundreds of millions. But since it isn't, its actual value could be much closer to zero.
Also it's slightly wrong to say it has a 27 hole golf course. I believe it has a putting course but no actual golf course. So maybe an opportunity to redo this video :)
I think the number of brain cells you have is closer to zero.
Did I hear you say Trump lives there? I'd pay a cool million dollars because the property image has been soiled...
you would..
Well, the 47th president of the USA will live in the White House from January this month. 😌
@@ws1814 He should be living in Rykers Island jail house!
@ It’s more likely that aunty Kamala will be behind bars when she fails to settle her 20 million dollar debt. 🥲 I heard she even went for an interview at 7-11 but was rejected for being intellectually challenged.
The exterior is quite ugly...
Musk wealth is growing now at some $3B per DAY since trump got elected, so yeah, Musk can pay one billion easily for this little home, that generates a lot of carbon dioxide LOL
Hopefully Elon can also bailout Kamala. She’s in debt and apparently looking to work in a 7-11.
I'LL GO WITH 18 MILLION
S1nk
I could live in the crawl space if it has a crawl space..if not mayb a car up on blocks back yard .that keep hillbillies for Trump happy...interview ..mr.post can u turn off the engine..no can do cooking dinner on manifold..
Most of the comments on this not very well researched video fall into 2 categories:
1. Mar-a-Lago is a business, not a residence, you can't subdivide it. Trump did that to be penny wise, pound foolish to save money on taxes. It is worth around 20m.
2. MR TRUMP IS A GENIUS AND ITS WORTH A BILLION
Sorry to find out you're part of that 2nd category.
If you love tacky you could pay $100m for it.
Better than a white hospital look
Well middle class brains like yours have trouble appreciating high art/architecture. You think white plasticky suburban houses look good. 😂