SH*T SH*T | New Fed Report Changes EVERYTHING.

⭐⭐⭐ Use Coupon "JOBS" *price goes up Sunday at 11:59 PM** || 🔥 Kevin's Courses on Wealth w/ Private Livestreams & Trade Alerts (Real Estate, Stocks, Productivity): meetkevin.com 🚨🔥 🔥🚨 These are educational courses; past performance does not guarantee future results.
📊📊📊 Get an actual, licensed financial advisor (fiduciary) w/ Meet Kevin at stockhack.com
THE JOBS REPORT
Rigged? Fed
😇 I almost FLIPPED. But then I went deep. And what I found, well…
ps because I did not most yesterday, the courses at MeetKevin.com are extended to 11:59pm Sunday. Big portfolio talk Monday in course member live at 7:20am. Big details on companies & trades.
An Analysis of Jobs
✅ Yields across the curve 25-35bp higher due to fears that
➡️ Jerome Powell was too aggressive with 50bp cuts
➡️ Markets unpricing another 50bp (down to less than 7% chance now in November)
➡️ Some pricing in 0 more cuts.
➡️ A pickup in S&P PMI “prices paid.”
➡️ A pickup in wage growth MoM.
➡️➡️ This less of a concern to Powell, as he’s said himself.
Jobs Report: The Bad
😇 Stall speed. The economy is not crashing, but it feels like it’s at “stall speed.” We’re just flying slightly too slow to stick the runway, and if we pull up too much, we’ll really stall out. If we nose down quickly, we’ll have a hard landing.
😇 This chart, YoY change in “usually work full time” shows the stalling. We’ve been in this negative region since March. Similar to:
➡️ 1990 after recession
➡️ 1982 second half of recession
➡️ 2001 end of recession
➡️ 2009 end of recession
😇 It is not as deep and the rate of change is slow. We’re stair stepping down vs. falling off a cliff.
✅ The typical “employment level” of gain in the Household Survey for a year is typically around 2 million in an expansion. Even in the mid 90s “soft landing,” household employment on an annual level hit about 2m.
✅ This year isn’t over; it only has data until September.
✅ However, below you can see:
➡️ Q4 2023 at typical “expansion levels.”
➡️ Then a substantial drop in Q1, Q2, and Q3 in the household employment level (to nearly 0).
➡️ In 1995, we did drop to a low of 693k. We’re at 102k now with August at -66k and September back to positive at 314k.
➡️ This is NOT uncommon on a MONTHLY basis. However, to go negative on a quarterly basis, historically, it only occurs during a recession or right after a recession (1961).
➡️ Q4 (October, November, December) job gains NEED to each be meaningfully positive on household data to prevent a deterioration to negative. The trend is either: BAD or a normalization from post covid. Obviously, which it is, is hard to know solely by this chart.
😇 Affiliates and Paid Promotions 😇
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Webull 75 Fractional Shares & 7% APY For 30*: metkevin.com/w...
Life Insurance in as little as 5 minutes: metkevin.com/life
Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Start earning up to $1000 of IBKR Stock!*: metkevin.com/ibkr
*See terms and conditions at affiliated webpages. Offers are subject to change. These are affiliated/paid promotions.
🤑 Meet Kevin In-Person Mastermind (High Ticket, Highest Value!) 🤑
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
meetkevin.com/...
💰 MY COURSES 💰
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Stocks & Trading Alerts: meetkevin.com/...
Real Estate Investing: meetkevin.com/...
Productivity & AI: meetkevin.com/...
Property Management & Renovations: meetkevin.com/...
Grow a RUclips Channel: meetkevin.com/...
Real Estate Agent Sales: meetkevin.com/...
🥰 SOCIAL MEDIA & DISCUSSIONS 🥰
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Twitter / X: / realmeetkevin
Tik Tok: / realmeetkevin
Instagram: / meetkevin
Free Market Livestream: @MeetKevinLive
Free Meet Kevin Discord: / discord
🚀 BUSINESS & BUNDLE INQUIRIES 🚀
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Please email my team at [e-mail] for any sponsorship, affiliate, collab, job, or bundle-coupon requests.
📝 LEGAL DISCLAIMER 📝
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
This video does not provide personalized advice for any viewer. Kevin, also known as Meet Kevin on social media, is not acting as your advisor in any capacity. Kevin's licenses do not imply that his advice is tailored to your individual circumstances. Any services, promotions, or links offered in this video may result in financial benefits for Kevin through paid advertisements, affiliate relationships, or products owned or partially owned by Kevin.
#meetkevin #biden #trump