@@dalemrgh1819 Ohhhh, so that's why that happened! I always thought it had to do with social unrest, pointless and difficult wars, and a general desire for freedom! Silly me! :)
@@LookBackHistory Pfffft, please, is that why there has been a KGB officer in charge of the Russian Federation for the past 20 years. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
@@sir_humpy They have built an array of new delivery systems for their nuclear arsenal. Off the top of my head,Bulava,Sarmat,Yars. Not to mention the medium range ballistic missiles that we don;t know much about, only that they are being tested(via the Iranians).
There was a much funnier scene in the earlier Yes Minister series when Hacker and Sir Humphrey were having a similar debate about nuclear disarmament, with Hacker the unilateralist arguing that the U.S. nuclear umbrella protected Britain from the USSR and China and Sir Humphrey countering that Britain still needed nuclear weapons to protect them from the French. Confused, Hacker says "But they're our allies," to which an exasperated Sir Humphrey replies "Oh yes, now. But they've been our enemies for most of the last nine hundred years!"
*Prime Minister:* It's a bluff. I probably wouldn't use it. *Sir Humphrey:* Yes, but they don't know that you probably wouldn't. *Prime Minister:* They probably do. *Sir Humphrey:* Yes, they probably know that you probably wouldn't, but they can't certainly know. *Prime Minister:* They probably certainly know that I probably wouldn't. *Sir Humphrey:* Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that you probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that although you probably wouldn't, there's no probability that you certainly would!
I know most people would see Humphrey as the antagonist, but a lot of times I actually agree with him. politicians often came up with something just for the sake of doing something.
And he has his bias too, being an English aristocrat he is inclined to react to changes even if it causes the ultimate collapse of the system, his job is to delay the collapse not to turn the tides, so he doesn't and cannot allow himself to take the risks that is allowing politicians to do changes, even when it apparently benefits the society.
I wish Lockheed had actually adopted this as an advertising slogan: "Trident: the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you." And yes, if you are wondering, defense contractors do run ads. You see them all the time on the DC Metro. The contractors are hoping that congressional staffers will see them.
They're actually targeted by station. You may see one or two elsewhere, but you know you've gotten to the Pentagon Station when half the ads are from Lockheed and the other half are from Boeing.
The missile you can't afford, and could probably live without. In America, Trident had a lot of fans early in its development, but eventually became more controversial as it neared deployment, when costs grew, and technological advances made the system more provocative. The Harrods line would have been adapted as a slogan by opponents, not supporters, had "Harrods" enjoyed the same recognition here. Had this show been written in America, Humphrey would have called it "the missile that Cadillac would have sold you". In weapons acquisition history, "Cadillac" has been used to label large, extremely expensive and unwanted programs that opponents just couldn't kill.
Deterrence alone is not enough containment of outside threat is required,,,current example of that is failure to contain the taliban,,, putting pakistan nuclear weapons at risk of falling into hands of taliban or it associates!
And I *didn't want* to spank my children either, but I did it. Seriously, Eastern Europe's problem was that it was between the West and the Sovs, and would have been flooded with tactical nukes had they invaded.
I'm just remarking on how Sir Humphrey says that line with such visible glee you think he has wanted to leave Prague and Warsaw irradiated wastelands since boyhood.
FYI: Trident was adopted by the UK: "The UK Trident programme was announced in July 1980 and patrols began in December 1994. Trident replaced the submarine-based Polaris system, in operation from 1968 until 1996. Trident is the only nuclear weapon system operated by the UK since the decommissioning of tactical WE.177 free-fall bombs in 1998."
In 1986 when this first aired, the year 2020 was something unthinkable. Even the year 2000 was not imagined. Watching now in 2021 its does make you laugh, but it also sends a shiver down my spine feeling how far back this was aired, 1986.
And has there been any nuclear wars? No? Well then the deterrent worked perfectly. "It is in the nature of things that those who save the world from certain destruction often don’t get hugely rewarded because, since the certain destruction does not take place, people are uncertain how certain it may have been and are, therefore, somewhat tight when it comes to handing out anything more substantial than praise." ~ The Last Hero, Terry Pratchett
I believe that the "Probably Certainly" exchange is on the wall of the Cold War section of the Cosford Air Museum in Shropshire, UK. I sit & listen in *awe* at that linguistic tap dance between two of the finest exponents of the art. It is now 2021 & all 3 of these actors have sadly passed away. TV comedy panders to the lowest common denominator & we are fed an endless succession of reality shows. Dumbing down is rife & Yes Minister/Prime Minister wouldn't even get a look in nowadays, which is very sad.
Superb, faultless and polished delivery - Nigel was a genius at his craft! Sadly, I don't think there will be another to equal his skill for another generation or two!!
Trident, It's lovely, it's elegant, it's beautiful, it's quite simply the best! In the world of nuclear missiles, it's the savile row suit, the rolls royce corniche, the chateau lafite 1945. It is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you
They had one for Moscow all through the 1970s and 1980s. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-35_anti-ballistic_missile_system The 1972 ABM treaty forbade everything else, but Moscow is a past Master at subverting treaties.
The Star Wars program with the pew pew anti-missile laser satellites was not a Soviet development. Neither is the anti-ballistic-missile shield that NATO have deployed in Poland. (Which doesn't work, but which Russia has successfully leveraged into getting permission to deploy more ground troops in Moldavia anyway.)
Following this episode, the Russians deployed the A-135 ABM system in 1995, the S-400 system in 2007, and S-500 system in 2021. The arms race is definitely not over.
Yes it’s funny. But Humphrey’s pitch generally runs along the themes which the modern-day military-industrial complex employs to politicians proposing ridiculous military budget increases. Particularly in the US.
Electric cars guided by traffic control, a permanent presence in space, video telephony, and the ability to play chess electronically with someone on the other side of the world in real-time. Maybe even fully automatic speech translation. But not an end to the Cold War. That was quite literally inconceivable. Surely the inevitable triumph of international Socialism could be staved off much longer than that.
2020 is indeed sooner that you expect. :) And how many takes did it take for him to get through that whole "they probably know they don't probably know..." bit in one breath?
And yet it has become essentially impossible for a british missile to actually hit the Soviet Union. (because Belarus is a pain to find on a map in a hurry)
Trident was/is a huge white elephant, if only Maggie hadn’t been so besotted with Ronnie and wanted desperately to please him, we could have saved billions.
It was dialog like this that kept Nigel Hawthorne winning the Bafta awards. It would have been nice if Paul Eddington had received at least one, but who can really fault the judges for their choice?
it's a well known fact that if the Soviet Union had launched a surprise attack on the UK, they'd have done it when Yes Minister Prime Minister was on the telly. The entire UK political elite watching it and pissing themselves laughing. Utterly defenseless
While the Ground-based Midcourse Defence is a dog of a system, the SM-3 is superbly capable, particularly with the Block IIA and Block IIB upgrades. The Block IIB will have anti-ICBM capability and they've very much mastered anti-IRBM/MRBM capabilities. In terms of shorter-range rockets, Iron Dome is quite effective and the Israeli Arrow 3 is said to be quite good. The RIM-156A SM-2 Block IV and RIM-174 / SM-6 are now also in use for terminal ballistic missile defence on AEGIS destroyers. In the 1980s when they poured billions into missile defence it was a fools errand, but increasingly more advanced radars, computers and kinetic kill vehicles have made missile defence a real (if expensive) proposition
Russians have functioning multi layer BMDS around Moscow since 80s, recently being upgraded. A-235 missile I think. And US SIOP allocated between 40 to 150 warheads to Moscow area to overcome it. 3rd of that for entire Poland.
And then 2020 turned out to be worse than anyone could possibly imagine. Oh to think of the days when the threat of nuclear war was all we had to worry about.
Have been waiting to leave this comment: 2020 is finally here.
But... where'd the Soviet Union go? I'm so disappointed!
And the only people close to a multilayered strategic missile defense system is Israel
@@LookBackHistory It decided to rebrand itself as the Russian Federation and ditch all the land around Chernobil.
@@dalemrgh1819 Ohhhh, so that's why that happened! I always thought it had to do with social unrest, pointless and difficult wars, and a general desire for freedom! Silly me! :)
@@LookBackHistory Pfffft, please, is that why there has been a KGB officer in charge of the Russian Federation for the past 20 years. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
2020 is sooner than you think. About 5 months actually...
S400
And the russians haven't built shit. They are neither capable nor have money to build anything on that scale.
@@sir_humpy They have built an array of new delivery systems for their nuclear arsenal. Off the top of my head,Bulava,Sarmat,Yars. Not to mention the medium range ballistic missiles that we don;t know much about, only that they are being tested(via the Iranians).
Yes indeed
it is 2020 for a week now
Humphrey was right. I was watching this on TV back then and didn't realise 2020 was going to come along sooner than I thought.
Sean D
but they're both dead
Less than 3 months away...
What's ur age ?
Thankfully, Russia is not a problem for the West anymore.
There was a much funnier scene in the earlier Yes Minister series when Hacker and Sir Humphrey were having a similar debate about nuclear disarmament, with Hacker the unilateralist arguing that the U.S. nuclear umbrella protected Britain from the USSR and China and Sir Humphrey countering that Britain still needed nuclear weapons to protect them from the French. Confused, Hacker says "But they're our allies," to which an exasperated Sir Humphrey replies "Oh yes, now. But they've been our enemies for most of the last nine hundred years!"
It's funny because they still are.
Exactly
28.10.2021 UK could retaliate if France stands by Brexit fishing row threats, George Eustice warns
*Prime Minister:* It's a bluff. I probably wouldn't use it.
*Sir Humphrey:* Yes, but they don't know that you probably wouldn't.
*Prime Minister:* They probably do.
*Sir Humphrey:* Yes, they probably know that you probably wouldn't, but they can't certainly know.
*Prime Minister:* They probably certainly know that I probably wouldn't.
*Sir Humphrey:* Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that you probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that although you probably wouldn't, there's no probability that you certainly would!
........ *What?*
Thanks for keeping track for us kind Sir
I wonder how many takes it took.
@@TheToledoTrumpton at least 1
TheToledoTrumpton : it took as many takes as it took to take, and if it took more takes than it took, it probably took too many takes.
I know most people would see Humphrey as the antagonist, but a lot of times I actually agree with him. politicians often came up with something just for the sake of doing something.
And he has his bias too, being an English aristocrat he is inclined to react to changes even if it causes the ultimate collapse of the system, his job is to delay the collapse not to turn the tides, so he doesn't and cannot allow himself to take the risks that is allowing politicians to do changes, even when it apparently benefits the society.
That delivery is simply marvelous. Those are the finest actors, the actors Harrod's would sell !
I disagree. Because this is definitely something we need
2020 has passed. Sadly, Jim, Sir Humphrey, and Bernard have all passed away now. RIP.
At least they do not need to experience how their biting satire of British politics of the 80s has become a utopian paradise for the British of 2022.
"It's the nuclear missile Harrod's would sell you!"
🤣🤣🤣🤣
That's the most hilarious line about nuclear weapons I've ever heard. 🤣🤣🤣
In the US, it would the missile that Cadillac would sell you.
@@winternow2242
So it’s expensive and you don’t need it.
@@matthew8153 ...which is what Hacker said, and Humphrey agreed.
I wish Lockheed had actually adopted this as an advertising slogan: "Trident: the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you." And yes, if you are wondering, defense contractors do run ads. You see them all the time on the DC Metro. The contractors are hoping that congressional staffers will see them.
They're actually targeted by station. You may see one or two elsewhere, but you know you've gotten to the Pentagon Station when half the ads are from Lockheed and the other half are from Boeing.
The missile you can't afford, and could probably live without.
In America, Trident had a lot of fans early in its development, but eventually became more controversial as it neared deployment, when costs grew, and technological advances made the system more provocative. The Harrods line would have been adapted as a slogan by opponents, not supporters, had "Harrods" enjoyed the same recognition here. Had this show been written in America, Humphrey would have called it "the missile that Cadillac would have sold you". In weapons acquisition history, "Cadillac" has been used to label large, extremely expensive and unwanted programs that opponents just couldn't kill.
@@winternow2242 That's a good point.
Only in ‘Murica!
Currently writing a thesis on deterrence; this back-and-forth about certainty sums up the whole theory beautifully.
Deterrence alone is not enough containment of outside threat is required,,,current example of that is failure to contain the taliban,,, putting pakistan nuclear weapons at risk of falling into hands of taliban or it associates!
I love that line: "But I don't WANT to destroy Eastern Europe!" So said every European leader since April 30, 1945.
And I *didn't want* to spank my children either, but I did it.
Seriously, Eastern Europe's problem was that it was between the West and the Sovs, and would have been flooded with tactical nukes had they invaded.
I'm just remarking on how Sir Humphrey says that line with such visible glee you think he has wanted to leave Prague and Warsaw irradiated wastelands since boyhood.
@@RonJohn63 Eastern Europe was part of the Warsaw Pact, Russia's answer to being denied NATO membership.
@Grenzer 23 Maybe you. I would like to visit Warsaw and Prague in their non-flattened condition.
Well, 2020 is upon us and now you wish that you'd listened to me don't you.
One of the finest written comedies of all time. And that’s why it will always be funny.
"2020, that's sooner than you think!"
Intelligent comedy at its finest, I love this show!
FYI: Trident was adopted by the UK: "The UK Trident programme was announced in July 1980 and patrols began in December 1994. Trident replaced the submarine-based Polaris system, in operation from 1968 until 1996. Trident is the only nuclear weapon system operated by the UK since the decommissioning of tactical WE.177 free-fall bombs in 1998."
Forget singing duets. This is the best duet ever. Wonderful stuff.
Utter genius from Paul and Nigel. May they continue to rest in peace
Just as relevant today as it was 35 years ago. Genius comedy.
The best sitcom ever and somehow whatever they talk about is still relevant.
In 1986 when this first aired, the year 2020 was something unthinkable. Even the year 2000 was not imagined. Watching now in 2021 its does make you laugh, but it also sends a shiver down my spine feeling how far back this was aired, 1986.
Inactivity is probably the best thing a politician can do, seeing as they pass too many laws that just make a bigger mess of things.
"It's the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you". Classic
what is scary is I watched this episode when the replacement for Trident was being discussed and exactly the same arguments were being presented...
They actually used the Harolds argument?
Harrod´s...
Funny thing is that Trident II (D5) hardly needs replacement. Now it is still capable but reliable missile.
@@piotrd.4850 the same could have been said about Polaris back when this show was made.
And has there been any nuclear wars? No? Well then the deterrent worked perfectly.
"It is in the nature of things that those who save the world from certain destruction often don’t get hugely rewarded because, since the certain destruction does not take place, people are uncertain how certain it may have been and are, therefore, somewhat tight when it comes to handing out anything more substantial than praise." ~ The Last Hero, Terry Pratchett
I believe that the "Probably Certainly" exchange is on the wall of the Cold War section of the Cosford Air Museum in Shropshire, UK.
I sit & listen in *awe* at that linguistic tap dance between two of the finest exponents of the art. It is now 2021 & all 3 of these actors have sadly passed away. TV comedy panders to the lowest common denominator & we are fed an endless succession of reality shows. Dumbing down is rife & Yes Minister/Prime Minister wouldn't even get a look in nowadays, which is very sad.
Best of the British. I used to watch and I still do . I love this . No word can explain how fantastic this is
How about "sublime"?
This is absolutely the best comedy in the world.
Superb, faultless and polished delivery - Nigel was a genius at his craft! Sadly, I don't think there will be another to equal his skill for another generation or two!!
Humphrey's face at 0:33. The shock!
Intelligent and humorous and very insightful all at once.
One of the best written British comedies ever ...
Trident, It's lovely, it's elegant, it's beautiful, it's quite simply the best!
In the world of nuclear missiles, it's the savile row suit, the rolls royce corniche, the chateau lafite 1945. It is the nuclear missile Harrods would sell you
Perfect script , awesome acting ... incredible humor with great timing delivered ... love this show
2020 - S500 anti ballistic system goes online
Damn this show's script writers! 😂
The way this year is going I wouldn't be surprised
0:30 the horror on Sir Humphrey's face after hearing those words. "CANCEL TRIDENT..."
Amazing script.
Other comedies become dated as the years pass. "Yes Minister" and "Yes Prime Minister" never will.
Unreal brilliance in acting and writing....
2019 checking in to say I watched this 1st time round and thought 2020 being sooner than I thought was very funny.
Interestingly the Russians do have a brand new anti aircraft system that Turkey annoyed NATO by purchasing.
2020 is days away and the Soviet Union is loooong gone.
Doesn't stop the Russians tho
And yet the Russians are using salami tactics in Georgia and Ukraine with no one doing anything to stop them.
And now we’re worried about China
2020 is here and it is not looking good.
They do still have 1,550 nuclear warheads though, and I'm pretty sure the delivery technology's moved on from the mid-80s.
Such a classic scene, top drawer script and acting
Fact he said 2020 made me chuckle XD
2020 reporting in. I'm still waiting for the "Soviets" to develop their fancy pewpew laser shield.
What do you mean? It's a fact that nowadays, none of the west's nuclear missiles can ever hit the soviet union.
They had one for Moscow all through the 1970s and 1980s. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-35_anti-ballistic_missile_system The 1972 ABM treaty forbade everything else, but Moscow is a past Master at subverting treaties.
The Star Wars program with the pew pew anti-missile laser satellites was not a Soviet development.
Neither is the anti-ballistic-missile shield that NATO have deployed in Poland. (Which doesn't work, but which Russia has successfully leveraged into getting permission to deploy more ground troops in Moldavia anyway.)
Following this episode, the Russians deployed the A-135 ABM system in 1995, the S-400 system in 2007, and S-500 system in 2021. The arms race is definitely not over.
Yes it’s funny. But Humphrey’s pitch generally runs along the themes which the modern-day military-industrial complex employs to politicians proposing ridiculous military budget increases. Particularly in the US.
Watching this, in 2020 :)
Such brillant banter!
S400-500 great foresight!
God I love listening and watching these priceless vignettes,.......especially in this lockdown.
Les Griffiths
That 2020 line comes out of nowhere, and has the firepower of a nuke.
This was aired in 1986
@@johnking5174 yes. Everybody knows that. That's why the 2020 mention has an impact.
@@winternow2242 Yes, that is what I was trying to get at. Hard in the written word format of the comment section.
At their time 2020 seemed to be the year from distant future in which everybody is happy or a millioner or something like that.
Electric cars guided by traffic control, a permanent presence in space, video telephony, and the ability to play chess electronically with someone on the other side of the world in real-time. Maybe even fully automatic speech translation.
But not an end to the Cold War. That was quite literally inconceivable. Surely the inevitable triumph of international Socialism could be staved off much longer than that.
2021... Anyone?
2020 is indeed sooner that you expect. :)
And how many takes did it take for him to get through that whole "they probably know they don't probably know..." bit in one breath?
"Bloody hell" - Sincerely 2020
It is now the year 2019.
He wasn't kidding when he said it's going to be sooner than any of us thinks!
Speaking of which, Russia does have the S-400...
it is now the year 2020
I am watching this on 31 December 2019 21:31 hrs🤔
'Well, you could say that about anything at Harrod's! haha
Watching in 2020!
2020, any day now...
Oh, what great British Comedy. Still makes me laugh as when I first saw it.
I come from 2020 the Russians still don’t have a nuclear missile interception system
And yet it has become essentially impossible for a british missile to actually hit the Soviet Union. (because Belarus is a pain to find on a map in a hurry)
well it seems we don't have the interception system...
or our country actually...
Genius script writing and acting.
Aaaannd it's 2020. Well that aged well.
Comrades the time has come launch the weapons
2021, and we don't seem worried about Russian missiles, it's their gas supply that we are discussing.
A Secret Unilateralist...
Trident was/is a huge white elephant, if only Maggie hadn’t been so besotted with Ronnie and wanted desperately to please him, we could have saved billions.
And its almost 2020 sir Humphrey
It's 2021 now sir humphrey
It was dialog like this that kept Nigel Hawthorne winning the Bafta awards. It would have been nice if Paul Eddington had received at least one, but who can really fault the judges for their choice?
2020 is in a few days - time does fly 😊
it's a well known fact that if the Soviet Union had launched a surprise attack on the UK, they'd have done it when Yes Minister Prime Minister was on the telly. The entire UK political elite watching it and pissing themselves laughing. Utterly defenseless
Gold!
they still dont have an effective missle defence system and only 3 years left
While the Ground-based Midcourse Defence is a dog of a system, the SM-3 is superbly capable, particularly with the Block IIA and Block IIB upgrades. The Block IIB will have anti-ICBM capability and they've very much mastered anti-IRBM/MRBM capabilities. In terms of shorter-range rockets, Iron Dome is quite effective and the Israeli Arrow 3 is said to be quite good. The RIM-156A SM-2 Block IV and RIM-174 / SM-6 are now also in use for terminal ballistic missile defence on AEGIS destroyers. In the 1980s when they poured billions into missile defence it was a fools errand, but increasingly more advanced radars, computers and kinetic kill vehicles have made missile defence a real (if expensive) proposition
Well, that was stated in 1985. Now it's still in 35 years
Russians have functioning multi layer BMDS around Moscow since 80s, recently being upgraded. A-235 missile I think. And US SIOP allocated between 40 to 150 warheads to Moscow area to overcome it. 3rd of that for entire Poland.
@@piotrd.4850 Assuming that the system works. We all know that the American Patriot system and Israeli Iron Dome aren't particularly effective.
Precendent = lets do the same thing we have always been doing.
The accuracy 😂😂😂 2022 and this is exactly what’s going on
I can agree, 2020 is sooner than you think
2020 will be here sooner than you think.
"Yes they probably know that you probably wouldn't"
There is another clip with Bernard Wooley about nuclear deterrent that is quite profound.
they're predicting future things
That's what ... prediction means...
This basically played out it in public with Corbyn.
Gosh, Sir Humphrey, it's 2020 and they(no one knows exactly) have created a much more powerful weapon. It's called COVID
A day away from 2020 yayyyy
2021 here actually
This was aired in 1986, remember that
Here we are
Comedy aside Hacker is absolutely right.
2021. Still no missile defence system lol.
2020 is here!
Well, seeing this in 2020 was a shock.
Russian S-500 system can intercept about any ICBM, so this was pretty much spot on
2020 The Year of the Coronavirus Pandemic, what would Sir Humphrey and Prime Minister Jim Hacker do?
Well, what _did_ the actual Prime Minister do?
they'd open up that empty hospital
It's now 2021
Its finally 2020.
Nigel Hawthorne is from a different world...a more advanced world.
Ah, the Rolls Royce Corniche of Brit-Coms does it again.
Good ol 2020
And then 2020 turned out to be worse than anyone could possibly imagine. Oh to think of the days when the threat of nuclear war was all we had to worry about.
This comment aged well...
@@GoldenSunAlex Quite. I've given up on expecting normality.
2020 is here
its 43 days to 2020 :p