One of the best discussions I have listened to for a long time. Thank you. From the U.K. The demographic time bomb is very real in many parts of the world!
@@supertramp1692 Too much sensationalism out there. I follow Theo Trade with Kaufmanns reports post market close, but they have a bit more of a technical angle.
Felix certainly has a ggod grasp of events in Europe especially those related the the war in Ukraine. I pray more N. Americans start asking questions about US foreign policy.
Ted, I really appreciate the quality of your interviews. I especially appreciate how this particular interview ties geo politics to the IS and world economy. You provide more clarity, with fewer words than anyone else.
Nice work Ted! You teased out unique and valuable information out of Felix. It was helpful, not only in the way I think about investing. But also in the way of thinking about business.
Sehr interessante Aussagen nicht nur in Bezug auf die ökonomische Entwicklung sondern auch geopolitische Analysen, die in den Mainstream-Medien so nicht vorkommen.
Felix was interviewed on Wealthion in Dec 2002, and he predicted a recession in Q2-Q3 2023. He made a lot of other predictions based on that recession call. Most of his predictions turned out to be wrong because of the bad recession call. I would have liked to hear him explain what happened to the recession and if he still felt a recession was on the table. Long term predictions are nice, but as investors, we really need to know what will happen over the next 6 months to a year.
I watched those same interviews. There were definitely a lot of wrong calls but nonetheless I respect his opinions and think his opinions are very thoughtful. He just did a blockworks interview where he kinda answers what he missed.
Some experts say we are in a minor recession, other so call experts say we had a recession, so who really knows, surely the FED won't tell you --- just saying!
His narrative portrays Russia as the victim and the United States as the aggressor, a perspective that significantly aligns with Russian propaganda. However, this viewpoint neglects to acknowledge the extensive history of Russia's use of soft power in Europe. For years, Russia has strategically employed soft power tactics to a much larger extent than any other nation to influence and achieve its objectives. This critical aspect of the geopolitical landscape is conspicuously absent in his analysis, suggesting a one-sided and unbalanced interpretation of the Ukraine situation. Also, if Putin aimed to protect ethnic Russians, as this individual claims, why did he allow the near-total destruction of Mariupol, where the majority of the population were ethnic Russians?
The Russia angle is flawed...why would Russia invade Crimea in 2014? And use the same justification for invading Ukraine, while also funding Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine...
Great analysis of geopolitics. It is amazing to find people thinking in the same way I believed it developed the Ukraine war. It has been US pushing Ukraine to a deadly war against a brother nation.
Ukraine wanted to attack Russia? They for sure had hope to win against them... I agree US won from this war but the loser of any military conflict would always be Ukraine. Now if Felix listened to what Putin said 2 days before the war he would remember that Putin demanded NATO to move out from Baltic's and Eastern European countries - that's for sure not imperialism lol... Ukraine is the unfortunate loser in game between China, Russia and US. It's unbelievable that not a single word of criticism was said about Russia here. Not surprising as a lot of EU money would like to have access to cheap Russian resources no matter what Russia does with neighbouring countries. Russia is just innocent isn't it? :D
Felix offers great perspectives on geopolitics. I don't know if my analysis would be exactly the same. National interests adhere to economic trends, but over the long-term these are constrained by demographics, debt, technology, energy and most importantly, political and social institutions. The US and the West have the political foundations of political and economic liberty that is not to be found elsewhere in autocratic states on the Asian continent. This counts for a lot in predicting the future because free societies adapt to change, whereas autocratic societies do not. Europe has two intractable problems: energy and demographics. China and Russia face a severe demographic decline that cannot be fixed. The developing world has a growing population and untapped resources, so which direction makes sense for them: freedom or autocracy? It's tough to see the USA, with all its faults and political mismanagement, losing this advantage to China. They say China will grow old before it grows rich. It certainly looks like asset deflation is in its short-term future. And where will rich Chinese go? To the West. It only makes sense.
Interesting perspectives on varied dynamics. But a lot of three dimensional chess talk on geopolitics. The latter unlikely to be very accurate, from my european view.
What's really bad is all the people who made millions and billions off zero interest rates now running around telling people to buy gold etc. Hey Robert rich dad poor Dad types. Conversely as much as I like Tedd I get annoyed that no one actually mentions the most important thing which is when you were born in history.
Somewhere along the way, Larry Fink lost all perspective. But fiat currency has created excess volatility and excess leverage, leading to greater systemic fragility.
honestly no idea where he gets this geopolitical ideas, i think he is just being contrarian for the sake of it. Is he saying that all those destroyed russian columns on a way to Kyiv, that consisted of amongst other things rossgvardia anti riot vans, and even a medals of "taking Kyiv", "liberating Odessa" in the belongings were just a decoy lol ? Ukraine showing incredible will to fight a war that started in 2014 btw, its ludicrous to say they are being pushed into it. They know everything is at stake here, they know russians never stop until they are stopped by force, none of those Budapest agreements are worth anything. Great interview otherwise, he is entertaining as ever even if needed to be taken with a lot of caution just like Peter Zeihan
Having been in the areas mentioned of Ukraine, in 2012 and having extended family members in these areas to this day, well some of the comments about Ukraine are utterly false and deeply offensive to these people. How do you justify the complete destruction of an entire city and it's people jobs and life? and say you are "liberating" them. Disappointing, and a bad call to put this up on an otherwise very good channel. Sounds like he repeats someone else's story, does he run Russian money in Swiss accounts?
Crisis in the bond market? Maybe the mechanism that deals with unsustainable debt. My thesis is that a new generation, unsympathetic to boomer entitlements, will restructure and redeploy. Politics in Washington is backward-looking and sclerotic. All policies have some tweaks as to what worked in the past.
Felix is so dramatically wrong on his assessment of the war in Ukraine (he is simply repeating Putin propaganda without even trying to challenge those concepts) that it undermines his ability to make sound calls on other issues
How so? Ukraine is literally running out of soldiers and conscripting 50 year Olds and females to fight and die on the front lines. They simply DO NOT have enough soldiers left to go on the offensive and will run out far before Russia.
Felix is Ultra Intelligent!
He knows what’s going on everywhere!
I am fascinated by this conversation, Thank You to Oxbow Advisors. 🙂
Highest value interview.
One of the best discussions I have listened to for a long time. Thank you. From the U.K. The demographic time bomb is very real in many parts of the world!
This channel is such a hidden gem.
Any others that you can recommend?
@@supertramp1692 Too much sensationalism out there. I follow Theo Trade with Kaufmanns reports post market close, but they have a bit more of a technical angle.
Terrific interview and a superbly interesting perspective. Thank you.
Felix certainly has a ggod grasp of events in Europe especially those related the the war in Ukraine. I pray more N. Americans start asking questions about US foreign policy.
Ted, I really appreciate the quality of your interviews. I especially appreciate how this particular interview ties geo politics to the IS and world economy. You provide more clarity, with fewer words than anyone else.
Nice work Ted! You teased out unique and valuable information out of Felix. It was helpful, not only in the way I think about investing. But also in the way of thinking about business.
Great interview and I really appreciate your style of asking thoughtful questions and then letting the guest speak. Thank You
Excellent interview. Felix is a great thinker. Love this!
Outstanding! Thank you Ted.
This guest has a realistic view on the world, i like that
Excellent observation of what is going on with the Board of Directors at companies.
Always watch these presentations. Thanks Ted.
Great to see that Ted has his own channel now!!!
SUBSCRIBED 👍
This guy knows a lot about what's actually going on.
Brilliant!
Thanks for the interview, loved it !! ❤
Great interview - two goliaths of the investing world in one video (making them both look normal sized)
My favourite person as well, since yesterday) your video with him is the second
Really like that dude! Ted…you are the man. Love your philosophy and demeanor, buddy!
There are two people I listen to every word they say, one is Felix and the other is Russell Napier.
Excellent podcast Ted, thank you.
Yes to Russell Napier. A hard man to dig out.
Same here
plus Anthony Deden
@@sunjungsonne Absolutely, he interview with Grant few year back was superb 😊
Sehr interessante Aussagen nicht nur in Bezug auf die ökonomische Entwicklung sondern auch geopolitische Analysen, die in den Mainstream-Medien so nicht vorkommen.
Great interview! Loved it. Thank you!
Thank you very much...
Ted, this needed to become general knowledge, thank you! With less growth we will have less profit potential.
thank you ted .You ask the right questions
Great questions, great answers👍
My favorite money managers ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️yaaaaayyyy!!!!
The 70s crises in the West delivered Thatcher and Reagan, which implies a return to economic rationality and fiscal rectitude.
Great interview.
simply great interview
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank as subscriber 😊
Very interesting
Thank you Ted. I really respect you as a money manager. I wish I worked for you. That would be a dream come true.
Excellent very interesting. Thank you 👍.
Thanks Ted! Though I disagree with most of what Felix had to say (too alarmist), still good to hear another perspective.
Great interview!
Awesome interview! Sounds like the late Harry Brown’s perfect portfolio strategy may be good idea for capital preservation.
Downcycle & upcycle refer to the treasury yields, right?
Felix was interviewed on Wealthion in Dec 2002, and he predicted a recession in Q2-Q3 2023. He made a lot of other predictions based on that recession call. Most of his predictions turned out to be wrong because of the bad recession call. I would have liked to hear him explain what happened to the recession and if he still felt a recession was on the table. Long term predictions are nice, but as investors, we really need to know what will happen over the next 6 months to a year.
I watched those same interviews. There were definitely a lot of wrong calls but nonetheless I respect his opinions and think his opinions are very thoughtful. He just did a blockworks interview where he kinda answers what he missed.
Many were early on the recession call, but it's coming...tax receipts falling
There was a banking crisis and the Fed pumped in liquidity. Hardly good times.
Some experts say we are in a minor recession, other so call experts say we had a recession, so who really knows, surely the FED won't tell you --- just saying!
His narrative portrays Russia as the victim and the United States as the aggressor, a perspective that significantly aligns with Russian propaganda. However, this viewpoint neglects to acknowledge the extensive history of Russia's use of soft power in Europe. For years, Russia has strategically employed soft power tactics to a much larger extent than any other nation to influence and achieve its objectives. This critical aspect of the geopolitical landscape is conspicuously absent in his analysis, suggesting a one-sided and unbalanced interpretation of the Ukraine situation.
Also, if Putin aimed to protect ethnic Russians, as this individual claims, why did he allow the near-total destruction of Mariupol, where the majority of the population were ethnic Russians?
I didn't want to comment but since you did...This guy is completely wrong about putin Russia and Ukraine.
What could happen on quad witching on DECEMBER 15 2023 ; GOOD OR BAD?.
The crazy thing is USA and Isreal do not have any mutual defense pacts or agreements.
How can CPI rise with a contracting money supply?
🔥
He is selling Ray Dalio’s thesis at the beginning.
The Russia angle is flawed...why would Russia invade Crimea in 2014? And use the same justification for invading Ukraine, while also funding Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine...
He said, Ukraine under pro USA government was preparing to attack eastern Ukraine
Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy
He's a Putin fan boy. He inaccurately described the Revolution of Dignity and the whole Ukrainian war.
He is everywhere again: three interviews in a row. Out of his closet after a while. 😂
Great analysis of geopolitics. It is amazing to find people thinking in the same way I believed it developed the Ukraine war. It has been US pushing Ukraine to a deadly war against a brother nation.
Ukraine wanted to attack Russia? They for sure had hope to win against them... I agree US won from this war but the loser of any military conflict would always be Ukraine. Now if Felix listened to what Putin said 2 days before the war he would remember that Putin demanded NATO to move out from Baltic's and Eastern European countries - that's for sure not imperialism lol... Ukraine is the unfortunate loser in game between China, Russia and US. It's unbelievable that not a single word of criticism was said about Russia here. Not surprising as a lot of EU money would like to have access to cheap Russian resources no matter what Russia does with neighbouring countries. Russia is just innocent isn't it? :D
Felix offers great perspectives on geopolitics. I don't know if my analysis would be exactly the same. National interests adhere to economic trends, but over the long-term these are constrained by demographics, debt, technology, energy and most importantly, political and social institutions. The US and the West have the political foundations of political and economic liberty that is not to be found elsewhere in autocratic states on the Asian continent. This counts for a lot in predicting the future because free societies adapt to change, whereas autocratic societies do not. Europe has two intractable problems: energy and demographics. China and Russia face a severe demographic decline that cannot be fixed. The developing world has a growing population and untapped resources, so which direction makes sense for them: freedom or autocracy? It's tough to see the USA, with all its faults and political mismanagement, losing this advantage to China. They say China will grow old before it grows rich. It certainly looks like asset deflation is in its short-term future. And where will rich Chinese go? To the West. It only makes sense.
Z=good thinking.
Interesting perspectives on varied dynamics. But a lot of three dimensional chess talk on geopolitics. The latter unlikely to be very accurate, from my european view.
Zulauf seems at odds with all US and European military analysts, i.e., Ukraine has lost, Russia has won! Seems a little premature!
I think the volatility will appear much faster than people think, trouble over the US election could spark it off.
Does congress needs to approve QE or can the fed take that decision without? Basically can Republicans block QE in 2024
Like Ted but he was totally wrong with the markets direction in all of 2023.
What's really bad is all the people who made millions and billions off zero interest rates now running around telling people to buy gold etc. Hey Robert rich dad poor Dad types.
Conversely as much as I like Tedd I get annoyed that no one actually mentions the most important thing which is when you were born in history.
Somewhere along the way, Larry Fink lost all perspective. But fiat currency has created excess volatility and excess leverage, leading to greater systemic fragility.
honestly no idea where he gets this geopolitical ideas, i think he is just being contrarian for the sake of it. Is he saying that all those destroyed russian columns on a way to Kyiv, that consisted of amongst other things rossgvardia anti riot vans, and even a medals of "taking Kyiv", "liberating Odessa" in the belongings were just a decoy lol ? Ukraine showing incredible will to fight a war that started in 2014 btw, its ludicrous to say they are being pushed into it. They know everything is at stake here, they know russians never stop until they are stopped by force, none of those Budapest agreements are worth anything. Great interview otherwise, he is entertaining as ever even if needed to be taken with a lot of caution just like Peter Zeihan
Having been in the areas mentioned of Ukraine, in 2012 and having extended family members in these areas to this day, well some of the comments about Ukraine are utterly false and deeply offensive to these people. How do you justify the complete destruction of an entire city and it's people jobs and life? and say you are "liberating" them. Disappointing, and a bad call to put this up on an otherwise very good channel. Sounds like he repeats someone else's story, does he run Russian money in Swiss accounts?
Never bet against the US
True but i also wouldn’t bet against Russia. History says as much
Maybe
Crisis in the bond market? Maybe the mechanism that deals with unsustainable debt. My thesis is that a new generation, unsympathetic to boomer entitlements, will restructure and redeploy. Politics in Washington is backward-looking and sclerotic. All policies have some tweaks as to what worked in the past.
Focus on your economic analysis. Your geopolitical analysis is a disaster. Especially CCP China - Taiwan part. Felix sounds like a pro CCP propaganda.
Some of Mr. Zulauf views sound like they came out from a russian troll
Great!! 2 guys that missed the biggest stock market rally in years talking to each other. So Pathetic
Felix on David Lin in December said the market would go up until second half of 2024.
Felix you must be drinking to much Russian vodka.
Felix is so dramatically wrong on his assessment of the war in Ukraine (he is simply repeating Putin propaganda without even trying to challenge those concepts) that it undermines his ability to make sound calls on other issues
How so? Ukraine is literally running out of soldiers and conscripting 50 year Olds and females to fight and die on the front lines. They simply DO NOT have enough soldiers left to go on the offensive and will run out far before Russia.