Why I am CAUTIOUS in these 4 INDUSTRY GROUPS ? ⚠️🛑

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"Stock Market Cycles and Bubble Identification"
In this video, we explore the critical topic of stock market cycles and how to identify potential market bubbles.
Join Janak as he delves into the characteristics of market bubbles and shares insights on how long-term investors can protect their portfolios against euphoric market conditions.
In this video, Janak will show how to identify bubbles in the market with the help of the examples of five industry groups as a case study. We will first start with the bubble cycle which has 4 phases which are stealth phase, awareness phase, mania phase, blow off phase.
The strength phase has high smart money concentration, and the company has been here for a long period of time, e.g., IEX and IRCTC. Now the institutional investors become interested in the second phase as they start seeing the growth in earnings and sales of the companies. If the awareness increases, then comes the mania phase, where the industry gets media attention, research reports are published, etc., and also investors start getting greedy and experience FOMO, so now the industry gets into a delusion state and a euphoria is created. Then comes the blow-off phase, where supply increases demand and falls into a bull trap, leading to a downtrend, which is called capitulation.
Using real-world examples from sectors like railways, defense, PSUs, and PSEs in the Indian stock market, Janak provides in-depth case studies to illustrate the warning signs of a market bubble.
He also discusses the mental model of "inversion" championed by investing legend Charlie Munger, emphasizing the importance of building a margin of safety, especially in the current high-value environment of the micro, small, and mid-cap space.
Charlie Munger has said in the model that to solve any problem, invert. So, for example, to be successful, instead of looking into the activities that will lead you to success, focus on the activities that you shouldn't be doing to become successful. We can also apply this model to investing; instead of identifying and researching the top 1% of a stock or industry, we can evaluate those stocks or industries that have some characteristics of bubbles so that we are cautious before investing in any industry or company.
Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting your journey, this video offers a timely reminder of the need to approach the stock market with prudence and discipline.

[@JanakLotwala]

27+ STOCKS Deep Dive. Get my Frameworks & process to become independent investor. Join my memberships here - bit.ly/Joinbutton

[@nkrishnamys]

Janak ji, astounding research. Now as it's contra action .. pls make episode on opposite of these themes .. i mean the them themes which are going to fire up in coming months

[@vishwaasghuge]

I’ve been following your videos from more than 2 years. Very well researched and informative videos.

[@vikassuri6474]

Nice video, keep up the good work

[@srikantasahu2387]

Providing great awareness sir.

[@anilpudota290]

Paras, IREDA etc are very expensive. I dont prefer even business is prmising.

[@acommonman155]

You got a new subscriber ❤️

[@narinderpalsingh5349]

Very very informative and very true bro ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤

[@mohammadzeyaullah1977]

Sir we retailers cannot afford financial advisor

[@sumongayen5767]

Thanks

[@KetanShah-kethk6568]

Ye soch ne vali baat hai !!! Right ho sakte ho, sir.

[@pinupaul1803]

Wow kiya bat hai sir..aisa he hotahe.thankn you sir .thank
you ❤

[@thememetime9772]

GREAT INFORMATIONS 👍

[@narinderpalsingh5349]

All PSU stocks are overvalued now 😢😢😢😢😢

[@manish749]

Sabne blue bataya thumbnail... select black kiya😂😂.... Operator's mind 😂😂😂 ...joking btw

[@amit.tech2015]

To kya kare sab chhod de... Krna kya h ye bhi bol dijiye
Alternative bhi btao

[@maheshsatam7832]

Very Nice Janak Sir

[@namitaarora4701]

Too good🎉

[@manish749]

Near delusion in defense

[@satishhasvshah4780]

Good Morning જનકભાઈ

[@syedmohammadirshad4259]

Zabardast