The Truth About Tesla's Q3 Earnings Report (Ep. 738)
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- Опубликовано: 1 июн 2024
- I give my take on Tesla's latest quarterly earnings - the positives and negatives, including Tesla AI, Tesla FSD, Optimus humanoid robot, next-generation vehicle, margins, 2024 guidance and more.
Read Tesla's Q3 2023 shareholder letter:
digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla...
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💁🏻♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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"I heard"
Hey Dave...thanks for breaking everything down for us, I hope your wife is doing fine.
Dave coming out of the woodwork to do damage control. "FSD is tesla's most important product" is a terrible investment strategy!
@@importon yeah I was like mixed earnings? That's optimistic, lol.
😔
Its so good to see you again Dave. Please if time will allows come talk to us. We love you.
The truth is that every "positive" was known and expected and every negative came unexpected and there were a few and significant.
Thanks, Dave! I hope you and your family are doing well!
Worst call of all time.
Yes, our thoughts and prayers have been with you throughout these past months ❤
Appreciate your insight and take Dave. Prayers to you and family.
Thanks Dave. Wishing you and yours the very best.
Great to have your analysis and voice back. The best to your family.
Good to see you again Dave! Thanks for your insights.
Great content. Missed you. Prayers for you & the family.
1st time on this channel and I love your vibe....no frantic click-bait, just calm and reasonable. Thank you! I'll be back!
Thank you Dave!!!;) Much health to your family!
Great to have you back Dave!
Also - it's Lay-throp.
Sound analysis of the earnings call…. Great to see and hear from you Dave!
Good to see you, Dave. Bless your family.
Thanks for everything, Dave!
Keeping you and your family in our prayers… always wonderful to hear your thoughts!
Thanks for the breakdown and your thoughts, Dave! We've all missed you. I hope your family is doing well
Thanks for the analysis without all the noise.
Thanks Dave, was traveling yesterday with my family so missed the earnings call, but appreciate the update/summary!! Been thinking about your wife and your family, continuing to send positive thoughts your way!!
Great report Dave, THANKS
Thanks Dave, informative summary... hope you and your family are well.
It's not a summary, it's pure hopium.
Hey Dave, appreciate your video! 🎉
Thank for the great summary Dave!
Dave
I very much appreciate concise synopsis. Thank you
Thanks Dave, I listened to the call but listening to it again through your lens offers even deeper insight and important context. Thanks
Thanks for the valuable, hard- to-find fundamentals/big picture!
Good to see you Dave, hope things are going better.
I appreciate your analysis
Thanks Dave, really appreciate your analysis.
ALWAYS appreciate your take on things Dave. Thanks a lot!
Thanks Dave
Hope the family is doing well! As always, I really appreciate the analysis.
Great to hear you again. I trust what you present. This is the only presentation I am listening to re the earnings call.
Love you Dave!
Much love to you and your family Dave.
Want more sales? Allow us customers who purchased FSD 4 years ago (and got little usage to show for it) to transfer to next vehicle.
Yes please
For real!
you might want to wait for that request until FSD is really FSD!
You paid how much? $2500?😊
For real
Thank you Dave.❤
Great and balanced summary, thks Dave !
Thanks Dave!
Excellent summary.
Good balanced. Helps understand the market reaction.
Thank you 🙏🏻
Great summary as always.
Nailed it well done!!
Once again great analysis.
Gteat summary, thanks, Dave❤
Thanks Dave for helping us see and understand all sides (good and bad) of Tesla's Q3 earnings call. Best wishes to your entire family.
Excellent analysis Dave!!!🧠
thanks Dave, you'll lead and i'll follow
Thanks Dave🙂
You're the best Dave!
Hey Dave,
Excellent summary.
In spite of developing the model Tau, $25,000 vehicle, in Austin... will Tesla wait for GigaMex to be production ready ?
Maybe rou want to maximize output after Release.
Thank you so much for doing what you do. I follow your videos on TSLA carefully, I find them invaluable.
Great job Dave! Praying for your wife brother.
Hope everything is as good as it can be at the moment.
What I loved about earnings were; energy growt and margins, explosion in AI compute, 40% improvements in 4680, cost reductions and cybertruck event . I am very bullish looking out 1-1,5 years.😊
I think 1-1.5 years is pretty uncertain. I'm in it for at least 3-7 years
@@LuKiSCraft agree, I was rhinking about when all the signs were positive, batteries, cybertruck, mexico and the next gen model. I think in 7 years the stock will be 5-9 times todays price.
@@MrAlanfalk73 yeah and even if margins compress to single-digits, it is worse for legacy auto than for Tesla. There will be a faster Tesla & BYD takeover the longer it takes rates to cool... right now Tesla is just getting its hardware install base to build its ecosystem. Similar to Apple in 2010
I needed FSD this weekend. Such a stressful time driving the 10 freeway east and west to the desert in LA.
Thanks for the balance Dave and for not being either a fanboi or a Wall St dinosaur
Is the price on cars expected to drop to generate more sales?
Do you know the status of Tesla Shanghai megapack factory? In last April it was said to start building the factory in 3rd quarter 2023, right? Thanks!
Dave,
Thx for a great breakdown & clarity to digest the Earnings Call!
Cheers, Eric
Well needed voice after this call …. Feel like we need some emotional support 😂😂
Priced into the P/E ratio is the 50% annual growth which starts to get difficult in 2025 without the Model 2??
Recent US restrictions on NVDA chip exports to China should be good for Tesla since Elon a while back said he’ll buy ALL the chips NVDA can produce for him.
h100 has been blocked from China for a year now and the waiting line of that chip is still 52 weeks away😂
@@nathanzhu5562China is getting the H800 instead, a slightly worse H100. Not that it differs much, though.
Macro environment conditions are challenging for high ticket items so if you are a Tesla shareholder you will have to weather this environment
Best time to load up on Tesla now !!
The first Q3 summary out there. Thanks!
Would like to see more side by side chart and fact compitition comperasants.
Pricing, production, problomes, and PR in currant market would add more value.
As much as I’m hopeful for FSD to come to fruition, I can’t help but observe Elon’s comment regarding logarithmic plateaus with respect to FSD progression. I was left with a distinct impression that even with end-to-end NN they are still experiencing logarithmic peaks that they still have to progress through.
I think his initial impressions and exuberance with e2e NNs has been tempered some by the drag that progress still entails.
Good i want tesla stop to stay low i want to keep buying if they have level 5 tomorrow forget about it the stock would go to the moon and the insane buying opportunity would be over. I actually hope it takes another 5 years before FSD is complete so long as tesla is first to the party
It won't be a thing for at least another 30 years.
I think you need to see this in context of Elons mind, as he really thought FSD would be solved this year, and now he has relized its not that easy. Wished we could hear from the FSD developers themself
@@sethaldrich6902 lmao 30 years. I guess you don’t understand how fast artificial intelligence is progressing
What I criticize with Elon's handling of FSD progress is him always talking about anecdotal evidence (I drives me around in Austin all the time) instead of looking and presenting numbers, specifically number of miles driven between (critical) interventions. This is a metric that is widely used in the autonomous driving space but Tesla never discusses it. It should be easy to show progress by plotting that number vs time. Moreover it would give us all an idea how far they still are from level 4 or 5.
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Thank you for your inthights about Tethla, ethpethially the info about their new AI thervers. Thuffering Thuccotath, it wath thuper!
Agree !!!
Declining margins and further price cuts on top of that might lead to even worse earnings next quarter. Current PE is very high considering the earnings declines. Most of the stock price is due to FSD and AI. We might see 100 dollar TSLA in coming months.
yeah it has a gap to fill at 145 and a double bottom at 100, I don't know why people keep wanting to ignore this, I keep telling them but tesla bulls are a different breed of degenerate gamblers.
It’s certainly a possibility.
@@sethaldrich6902 Buying & selling based on technical analysis is not investing. That's trading. If that's what you do, that's fine. But I'm just holding the stock until literally 2030+ lol. It's a different thing to invest vs. trade.
Part of a very important coin been talked about in the BCL
Hey Dave and all, could we have one thought, how long or steps human took for auto airplane mode in Boeing or Airbus at industrial mature? Vehicle industry is even 10 to 100 time complex environment than aviation industries.
If you ask me or people, could it solve by general AI? Yes, eventually.
The option for time to bring to industrail mature or general available maybe next generation but not now.
I'm a huge Tesla fan and machine learning area workers, but i have to be realistic.
The roadblocks to driverless vehicles on the regulatory and political front is being way underestimated. There are so many power spheres domestically and abroad that will challenge every inch of the "road".
The delays will be years most likely and for reasons that will surprise even the experts.
Regulatory and political issues are the least of Tesla's problems. FSD doesn't work
Tesla van! I have heard some suggest that once FSD is in place and widely used, some states may make human driven cars illegal. Now that could be interesting!
Pierre Ferragu had a great question- are you looking into tiered pricing for a limited FSD. The idea would be to sell a "less than robotaxi" feature set. The question was pretty much side stepped by saying how huge FSD will be when we have robo taxies. Why is enhanced auto pilot still $6000? How about drop that to $1500 and get some sales?
Hes so happy about the Recession coming in, like hes super excited to be witnessing it.
Tesla van = game changer.
Gloomy
Tesla is behind the curve on the next generation vehicle. They're falling behind the competition in $30k market
I mean this is what I have been saying this whole time. Margins will shrink as competition ramps up.
welcome your video
I am buying a Tesla As soon as I can get one for 25 grand. So will millions of others, I have no doubt.
Thanks Dave! Personally I think if you are a long-term investor in Tesla this earnings report is just a "blip" in the bigger scheme of things!
Yes but big blip. China has cheaper, comparable EV's and will move forward in FSD.
@@red-baitingswine8816 We'll see if other countries start charging a higher tariff on cheap Chinese imports that will change the dynamics!
@@pnketia Agree. (so much for "free trade"! 😂)
@@pnketia Europe/Germany might not do that, if they export their jobs to China rather than to the US.
Agreed. If it drops back to $150 or lower I will just buy more lol. Bulls just need to hang on until rates cool. Who knows when that will happen, but when it does, TSLA ain't gonna trade sideways anymore
Thanks for making it short 😂🎉❤
The bond market is sending a very strong message that we're heading into a recession and that the economy will continue to slow. Also Ukraine war and uncertainly in the middle east not great of course, Elon is right that this isn't the time to step on the gas. Don't expect upcoming quarters to be as rosy and don't expect huge growth, only good thing is I think legacy automakers will be hurting 10x more than Tesla. So Tesla might still continue to grow market share overall.
Nice one Dave.
I believe FSD is the sleeper that will knock it out of the park.
When fully formed the competition will have to respond.
They will have no choice but to license the only viable system.
Imagine the rivers of gold when Tesla is the ONLY autonomous driving system used by every manufacturer because there is simply no competition.
They will lead the way but over time the real value will come in application with Optimus. FSD will be a gold mine for a number of years but will come down over time, but by then it won’t matter.
There are two companies already offering self driving taxis in various US cities.
@@jordanslingluff287 yes, I'v read a little about it. Less than impressive.
Anything that is bound by a fixed area is not FSD.
where's that Johnny Depp "keep tellin yourself that darlin" meme? Self driving aint gonna be a thing for at least 30 years.
@@sethaldrich6902 that's a very strange thing to say considering the hundreds of millions of miles driven since when ? 3 years ago ?
Thank you for your input. I missed listening to you on RUclips the past few months. I hope your wife is okay.
Hope they place more Super Chargers in Greece as this will drive demand
There remain to be sensory problems. For example FSD is impossible to function in the dark. If you own a Tesla you know this. Also rain is a massive issue. For this reason I believe that aslong there is no radar or lidar to assist, this is just all and only to train the model. I dare not to use my autopilot in low light situations.
It's crazy no matter how bad things get, Tesla is still winning and #1. That's why I invest in this crazy stock.
Still waiting on the Roadster vaporware. Ridiculous how long this thing is taking to get out.
Do you think Tesla will go private? Thank you for great content. 🙏 for you & your family.
Investing in ai is very reasonable and could besides the use for FSD / Optimus be use as a service and generate huge revenue.
Thanks Dave I hope your wife is doing well.
I think Elon conveyed the development of the “Model 2” is not coming as fast as fans hoped. He didn’t lay out any timeline. Things appear to have slowed down. Years not months.
Let’s all remember how FSD was even a year ago , the progress it is making is astounding.
Let's all remember what Musk was saying in 2020 regarding FSD, Model 3 , and robotesla. FSD and roboteslas were going to be on the road in 2020. Not buying a Tesla was stupid, because you'd be earning money when you weren't using it. Please do remember that as well.
What's your metric for "progress" and isn't it still struggling with Chuck's turn even after Tesla specifically sent engineers there?
@@craighermle7727 I hear what you’re saying but you have to also remember the last 3 years have been totally abnormal due to Covid , my comment on how far fsd has come in the last year still stands, I didn’t say it has been solved but it’s moving rapidly imo.
I'm not saying that Tesla hasn't made significant progress. I've driven Teslas for several hundred miles with some version of autopilot/FSD. It's a remarkable driver assist software, but it's not FSD. yet Taking covid or any progress-limiting issues out of the equation, the fact remains that Tesla/Musk grossly underestimated the complexity of FSD..I honestly believe they didn't know what they didn't know,. or Tesla wouldn't have spent billions on computer farms etc. All of that is understandable but put that hardware. software/AI need complexity into what Musk was selling and hyping and it seems pretty obvious, imo, that there was no way FSD could have been released when Musk said it was going to. FSD was going to be out of Beta this year as well; We'll see. I'm still not sure what FSD means at this point, it's still Level 2, which I think means it really isn't FSD, correct?
@@craighermle7727 I think fsd will get there eventually 🤔 let’s face it Elon is rarely on time with any project , I think the 4680 battery production and ramp up has been slow too , I don’t believe fsd will be soon but I believe it will happen 👍