What a Deglobalized Economy Will Look Like
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- Опубликовано: 4 июн 2024
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SOURCES:
I've linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text.
www.moneymacro.rocks/2024-03-...
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
1:20 - globalization history
7:53 - effects of fragmentation
13:41 - winners and losers
19:10 - conclusion and masterclass
Attribution:
- BYD car show cc BYD
- Russia joins WTO cc Euronews
- China joins WTO cc AP
- Boris on zipline cc On Demand News
- WW1 colorized footage cc (couldn't find the original owner)
- WW2 footage cc CC&C ECPAD
- little green men picture cc Anton Holoborodko (Антон Голобородько)
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort
Thumbnail by Tom Hurling studiotomkin.com/
Join me the 8th of April for a live masterclass industrial policy: mm-masterclass.eventbrite.be
Or check out the recorded masterclass here: school.moneymacro.net/p/industrial-policy-masterclass
Have you lost weight? Looking good!
Trump isn't going to raise tarriffs 60%, it's a bluffing tactic to make the Chinese reassess their position.
Good luck with the masterclass! Hope you found something as useful as lactobacillus reuteri for your baby girl. We used the BioGaia brand for our colicky baby, worked a charm.
Hello, I've been watching many videos about China. In Short- China is corrupt from top to bottom. From everyone ripping off each other off, stealing, polluted water, Tofu-Dreg everywhere, social unrest and economic decline to population loss. China is headed to collapse and revolution. How this will play out geopolitically is uncertain. I just found you so I'll be subscribing and checking out your videos. Do more videos on China if you see fit . Thanks.
honestly its just the west being dellusional, the rest of the world will continue to globalise and trade regardless of the economic suicide the US and EU is committing. just because we are not "highlighted" in the map, doesn't mean we don't exist. the west continuing to treat us as if we don't exist, forces us to trade with the only side that treat us as if we exist... surely you can see that?
First rule of Geopolitics : There are no permanent friends and foes, only permanent interests
yeah, well, even interests are not permanent 😜
As a certain bearded Florida Man put it, "Countries don't have friends, they have interests."
İnterests = oil😂
There is a big flaw in the video. I stop watching after that. The standard narrative is that the "west" is trying to make the world be more equal economically in the liberalization era. This cannot be further from the truth. The west have in mind what global trade is suppose to be:
1. Trade between nations is done by "western firms", the main actors.
2. The high value added industries are in the west, while low skill, low tech, and resource extraction is done in the rest.
3. Cheap production base for western firms, and cheap goods for western consumers.
This is very hard to accept if you are China, or Russia and any developing economies. Why is it that they have to always occupt the lower end of the value chain? Most countries have higher aspiration than being factory workers, and producing cheap goods. China has been doing this for decades, but they now want to start making higher value goods, and this scared the west. This is why we have a trade war.
@@evdeuretimhanem😢 oil is overrated
As a Mexican. I couldn´t be more exited about this new geopolitical/economical era. Our currency has appreciated 20% in 2 years, investment in the industrial sector has been massive since last year. China and the US are fighting over our strategic location and cheap labour. We are just racking up the profits for it. Cheers!
And this is only right. Superpowers must offer good deals to countries they want to influence, not enslave/bomb/bury in debts
At present, Mexico provides a backdoor for Chinese companies to sell in the US. Make hay while the sun shines Mexico, the end stage of deglobalization is the US closing that loophole.
Yes this is good for Mexico, it can easily become the US's Poland.
@@FOLIPE Butthurt are we? Poland is not even a fifth of Mexico's total market economy lol.
@FOLIPE Typical European cope. America is the only major economy that has access to cheap labor and a healthier demography, something that will become VERY important in a deglobalized world.
As an Iranian I can tell you that we have one of the worst economies in the world, inflation is insane and people are struggling to buy basic food, we don't want to be "Axis", we want a normal relationship with the world and a normal country.
Iran would be so much better off if didn't have the regime
yes but that wont happen as long as America have anything to say
@@rphb5870America and the west can 100% decide who doesn't trade with them and doesn't use their stuff.... No one stop Iran from trading with China or Afghanistan ecc.... 🤷🏻♂️
iran needs a corrupt pro west government like the one you had before. any iranian governemnt wants to keep the profits for the iranian people, will not be accepted by the west.
@@Mark-gd2ti I hate the term "the west" it is an euphemism for America and his vassal states.
And America is a big bully that tries to control what everyone else does.
It is not that America don't want to trade with Iran (and about 100 other nations), it is that he tries to prevent them from trading with anyone, to lay siege to their economy, which he have until now been able to due to his exorbitant privilege, of having what we call the world reserve currency.
It have actually only existed since 1971 and was a pyramid scheme / ponzi scheme / racket from its inception.
it replaced an older system called Breton Woods (1944-1971) in which he also played a central role but in one where he promised to redeem dollars for gold at a fixed price which kept prices and exhange rates relativly stable in the period.
before that if we go back we had an increasingly better gold standard
You've given the northen part of the North Island of New Zealand a big haircut, but we're just happy to be included
#MapsIncludingNewZelandButAtWhatCost
That part of the island is rather thin, so at the scale of the map here, it'd be tricky to show - being thinner than the black outlines around each country.
U mean Australia?
@@aniksamiurrahman6365 - No, they're talking about the "Northland" area of New Zealand - i.e. the thin part of the North Island that extends a good ways to the north of Auckland.
@@Bike_Lion Thanks for letting me know.
As a Brazilian, all I can say is:
THE MARKET IS OPEN, BABY! WHO WANNA BUY? WHO WANNA SELL? WE HAVE ALL!
Joga todos os lados ganha todos os premios
So gostaria de ver isso sendo revertido em investimentos pro povo, educação de base, etc. em vez de ir parar na mão da elite financeira como sempre. #elitedoatraso
@@idromano SIM!
There are some sports betting strategies which maximize gains by playing different results in different betting websites. You can still lose, but it stops being totally random
@@rogeriopenna9014 so, you prefer for others to bet and lose in multiple tables instead of recomending "don't bet at all"?
The global economics will be defined by “friend shoring!” You invest in countries that has no geo political and territorial interests against you!
Let's see
@@MoneyMacro I didn’t wrote the word “evil” in my statement.
Implying Mexico has no geopolitical ambitions contrary to America? Please. Mexico is merely weak. Mexico has massive historical and contemporary disputes against America. If Mexico had the economic and military resources of China, it would be launching a reconquista of the Southwest.
@@MoneyMacro This is a crazy claim. Were Germany, Japan and Italy on a "geographic axis"? Likewise, Iran doesn't even border either Russia or China. Nobody watching the video sees you label "axis powers" and thinks of anything other than "he's saying they're like the Nazis"
AMLO is like the most anti American president Mexico has had in over a century
Interesting that you did not mention a fourth category of those who will benefit from increased fragmentation. That category is labor. Increased fragmentation will lead to increased re-shoring. While I've been hoping for more re-shoring than I'm seeing, I'd recommend looking and exploring this question as to the ongoing trends. For instance, there is already a requirement for data centers (and hence the technicians) to be located in countries that serve the customers of the corresponding databases; or at least be located in "friendly"/aligned countries.
Do you mean less capital movements?
The US could easily end up near shoring formerly Chinese manufacturing from Mexico. There is some open ground for labor but the owners of capital will always go for the lowest cost labor available.
@@TheGroovyJones There isn't a ton of cheap labor left in the world to near shore. Yeah, Mexico is cheaper, but surprisingly not a cheaper than America, and if we nearshored even half of our imports from China to Latin America, it would probably end up making the US even more cost-competitive.
Cost of labor per hour really isn't the only factor. There are also things like labor output per hour (quite high in America), energy costs, land costs, regulatory costs, political risks, etc. Mexico more cost-competitive than America for some things, but not by a lot, and in the last decade, America was actually the most competitive economy globally for most economic activity.
I dipends where you live. In China or Eastern Europe, less export is a bad thing for workers.
I wanted to hear more about the impacts on the US economy and the ideas of “friend-shoring” advocated for by the New Idealist school of geopolitics. I.e. - if allies are too dependent on geopolitical rivals (Germany to China and Russia), then countries like Canada might weaken some of their regulatory barriers to some activities/raw materials specifically for those allies in order to ween them off of rivals. That would reorient trade, not necessarily reduce it, and concentrate additional wealth in new/unexpected places.
Also, growth in the Global South is still possible while decoupling from China, and that is precisely the area going through the demographic explosion while China/Russia are dramatically declining in population.
Why use the antiquated military terms Allied and Axis? Dollar-Zone and BRICS-Zone.
Cause he thinks of my country as bad guys? 😅
Should be the oppposite, the axis is the western countries
@@josousa78why?
@@Dan251299 Which country has overthrown countless democratically elected governments and replaced them with dictatorships? I'll give you a hint, it's not China.
@@Dan251299 Because of the golden billion people, they consume too much energy.
Free market and globalization until they start to lose 😂 When they are dominating, the market is free and competition is great; When they are losing, national security is paramount and market force is market farce😂😂😂
10 points for Gryffindor
Give this man 1 million social credit😅
Let's be honest though. China to a large degree was never completely part of the free market. It was free market going out and very restricted going in. Sure some companies have had success there (Apple) but they had to resort to making their phones there. I could type an encyclopedia about barriers to trade with China.
@@brianh9358 I wonder whether the length of your encyclopedia is actually that different from Japan and South Korea. Or even for EU. Anyhow, US and EU is acting more protectionist politically. Sad!
You have a free market but your competitor does not have and over subsidising their industry then yeah this would be the reaction .
It'd be worth considering whether or not this will accelerate and entrench regional trade blocks like in the EU and North America, and potentially ASEAN. South and South East Asia could benefit greatly as neutral trading countries especially as their economies have grown rapidly such as Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Malaysia and the Phillipines. After all, they will gradually be the center of a new "middle class" of consumers and producers.
Nope, at this point, the Philippines is just an ASEAN nation-state member in name only and is now within the US economic orbit again.
@@JosephSolisAlcaydeAlbericiFalse. If you count ASEAN as a single entity, PH trade with ASEAN exceeds PH trade with the US on both the import and export front. While geopolitically PH needs US military support to deal with issues in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea (so does Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei), ASEAN remains the top trading partner of PH.
@@JosephSolisAlcaydeAlberici
Pretty sure the Philipines see more trade and investment with China, let alone ASEAN, than the US. The reason that Phillipines wants security ties with the latter is due to misguided belligerent behavior by the former. Unless Indonesia or something goes ramming ships near PH natural economic/trading ties with ASEAN will win out.
if the middle man earns too much, the industrial policy will recognize them as part of competition. That position is quite fragile.
@@somekindofhmm whatever you said, you still cannot deny the fact that Philippines is a vassal puppet state of the USA
Why do you refer to the west today as the allies and east today as the axis?
Modern blocs are not what they were in the 40s. Using these terms seems to be creating a moral comparison. Which is a fair to believe, but its not an unbiased stance.
Because the Axis were always Authoritarian states and the Allies Liberal nations. Same is true today.
Remember Bush's Axis of Evil? Calling anyone "Axis" today is an attempy to conjuring up image of Axis in WW2. Calling Russia and China Axis is obviously not a coincidence which is funny as they fought the hardest and suffered the most lost in WW2 while the 3 Axis powers in WW2 are labeled "Allies". This map looks like a WW2 fascist's wet dream
Westoids like to treat geopolitics as a role playing game where they are the good guys, then will call the other side "irrational". Sad because I thought Yuri is smarter than that.
Axis is the West, since they push peiole to homelessness, addiction, forced vaccinations, sex changes to children, "assisted" suicide etc. Not to mention that ALL Axis powers of 1940 arel labelled "Allies" now.
I agree, I enjoy this guy’s videos but anything non analytical of his is always a shit take. I only stay for his graphical representations and the logic he uses for economics. Politically it is a painfully biased western take. Not to say the “allies” aren’t even the “good guys” anymore. China and Russia are not Nazi Germany, at all.
Dr Joeri, you should make a video about the development/industrialization of the US economy in the 19th century. Many people claim it was completely laissez faire and the government played no role, but rarely we see the counter argument
"Many people claim it was completely laissez faire and the government played no role"
Well, we know this wasn't the case because the US allowed for slavery which was enforced through the government. With the 3/5ths compromise, that gave agrarian slave states like Virginia more sway in government policies than it otherwise would have.
Then we have the Civil War with the industrialization being a key benefit in the North, with Lincoln starting the Trans-Continental Railroad during the war. Obviously, those rails would be placed around the more populous industrial centers, giving them an edge compared to less populated areas. It would be ignorant to say "Government played no role" because this was such a huge investment for infrastructure, directly benefiting some more than others.
The question that would be curious to ask is not "Did government play a role?" but "How much of a role did it play?".
@@felman87 the answer is govt played 73.567% of a role
On the contrary. The USA was very protectionist and always worked to develop its own industry rather than importing from Great Britain.
America was made with tarrifs
@@felman87 The usual propaganda is that free market societies are free of government interventions while authoritarian governments or communist thrive on government interventions. This couldn't be further from the truth if you pay attention to what's going on.
How economics made war obsolete: A Fairy Tale for Adults.
Especially with increased spending on arms creating increasingly powerful arms lobby groups. And we don't have to think twice to know what policies they'll lobby for.
War, war never changes.
At least economics made wars that aimed to improve economics obsolete. Individuals or companies may profit from war, nations no longer.
Marxism. The only scientific economics that makes war obsolete.
@@moxinghbian I think you will find that this, in the long term, is incorrect no matter how much we might wish it were true.
Awesome. Your videos are not dense.....they summarize really well the issue you discuss....congrats!
Great timing! My Econ IB students are just starting the global economy unit and economic integration!
Just in time for it to all fall apart.
Maybe protectionism is good for things like real estate. What's the point of globalization if people are out priced out of their neighborhoods.
I'd argue that it's worse, since the costs of raw materials will skyrocket. Maybe the cost of borrowing from high interest rates will bring demand and therefore prices down, but that may only benefit those who can afford the higher repayments.
Yeah, very much like protectionism for housing.
Industry is a different thing. Opposed there.
We have all been suffering from too many people. The demographic effects of good medicine, and rural to urban shifts are done. Jobs being bad is fixing itself, assuming AI doesn't screw it up.
If we take 2017 as a turning point where the U.S started to move away from policies promoting globalization and free trade. From then to the present day the U.S economy hasn't particularly suffered with solid job creation and strong wage growth even with Covid disrupting everything. Add in what the EU is doing post-Covid and their economies aren't doing half bad (relatively) as well, even with energy supplies cut.
That's not a causal effect of course but it is an open question whether promoting unrestricted free trade really benefits *developed* countries by making the proverbial pie bigger, or does it just open up the pie to be taken by developing countries instead.
@@matthewmatthew638 there's a confound with the effects of baby boomer retirement/and China running out of people to move from rural to urban during that same period. But yeah, I am curious about the same question. What actually is the balance of things?
Trade wars are class wars(the book) had an interesting take on it- arguing that workers that consume less than they produce are the problem, be they developed or developing.
@@baneofbalor5881why should materials get more expensive when real estate is banned from foreign investment?
Saw your comment about not getting enough sleep due to baby . Please take care . It will get easier with time i hope
Thanks! It is already slowly improving :)
@@MoneyMacro happy to hear that
@@MoneyMacroThis not allies vs axis but
The west vs the rest
@@MoneyMacro sleep when they sleep. Tag team with wife. good luck
Thanks for putting together a course. Love your videos, so I'm very excited to learn more with your course. Can't grab the live one, it'll be too early in the morning here in Australia, but that's all good, we're miles away from anyone, looking forward to the none live version though, just signed up.
Other, friendlier countries will fill the gap. It's not instantaneous but it's still gonna happen. It might ultimately trigger military conflicts ( hopefully contained in proxy wars ) but it also can iron out strategic differences in order to access opposing markets.
Brazilian here, and I agree - but also we here have a lot to gain thanks to our diplomatic neutrality.
I like that despite have India on the thumbnail and it arguably being the biggest winner of fragmentation, you never mentioned its name. Its better to be invisible while climbing the ladder.
let's not forget the risk of war which is one of the biggest and worst consequences of fragmentation / alienation / change of power dynamics
It seems to me that war, or preparing for it, is at the very least, highly correlated to fragmentation. That's the elephant in the room not discussed in this video.
That's my biggest concern as well. I would really, really like for us to avoid a world war 3.
@@risingdough8078
Not discussed, he's calling nations Axis members and people still think the guys neutral...
@AUniqueHandleName444
Too late, it started over 2 years ago in full - if not militarily, then by any other powers it is all-out hybrid war. Only Axis, as always, wanted it, but history of the future will explain it. Today you can easily get lost, as there are more engagement with disinformation than trustworthy information in places. This chanell is the latter, but only presents a toned-down economical projection excluding rest of the hybrid-war factors.
@AUniqueHandleName444
You won't be able to, thanks to the adroit politics of USA and EU. Now every country sees, beyond the shadow of doubt and beyond any conditionals, that nuclear weapons are the sole guarantee of sovereignity.
Have yet to watch the video, but just wanted to mention I'm rather turned off by the thumbnail. Calling it "axis" vs "allies" sounds rather sensationalist, and certainly biased. It implies good guys vs bad guys, unwarranted animosity. And beyond making a reference to the "allies" without Russia, which is passable I guess (Molotov-Ribbentrop did happen after all), calling it "axis" without Germany, Italy or Japan is disingenuous to history. That was THE Axis after all.
I very much agree. I also wrote a comment about this, but you worded it better.
@@___________________________._ You do know people like you 2 are the reason society is going down the drain like a shit soufflé right? nobody cares about your reactionary histrionic hyperbole underwritten hang ups about references to the 20th mid century ethnocentric enthusiasts because it doesn't matter no matter how much you think it does. Get a clue man.
Important to note that Molotov-Ribbentrop happened after all other western powers also signed non-aggression pacts with Germany.
@@thoracicfuture Oh look another stupid person obsessed with 20th century history and it's corrosive politics, after all the world needs more apologists for radical extremist ideologies that killed more people on this planet than anything else that came before it. only 100+ million that we know of. No big deal; for a death cult worshipper that is.... get a room.
@@thoracicfuture exactly. After the allies refused to sign a pact of protection against germany with the USSR. Stalin saw himself cornered.
Please dont use allies vs axis. Because they are not axis they are their own alliance.
As soon as they come up with a name, I'll use that instead
The West vs The Gobal South
@@MoneyMacro OMG, you are telling me you never heard of Shanghai Cooperation Organization or BRICS? Or simply cannot use East vs West?
@@MoneyMacro They could be called Comrades (or, yes, BRICS). Axis is a name associated with Nazis and Bush W's genius ideas of going into Iraq to hunt for WMD. Perhaps, since neo-Nazi elements have been active in a certain Western-sponsored state (referred to as "democratic"), and the fact that von Braun as well as other WW2 Nazis were welcomed into the US with open arms, the term "Axis" might be applied to the Western block, as it is right now, with its idea of expanding NATO membership and spreading LGBTQ & feminist ideology. But hey, your trolling was good, kudos.
@@MoneyMacro until that let's just use the most widely known term for the most hated alliance of current times. I guess there were no more terms left. It's not propaganda, just randomness.
At least east/west would have made much more sense historically and country-wise.
I see what you did there at 0:02 -- not putting Hungary into Allies -- technically not wrong
Sharp eye
@@MoneyMacro considering how lame the westoid car makers are in the EV transition, Hungary might be the only car (EV) producer from EU in the future. 😆😆
a true connector economy then@@morganangel340
Ahvenanmaa isn't in it either. It is interesting how in so many maps that part of our country is being excluded from EU, NATO and now Allies.
The 2 Allied nations that fought the hardest and suffered the most lost in WW2 are labeled "Axis" while the 3 Axis powers in WW2 are labeled "Allies". This map looks like a WW2 fascist's wet dream
So this is all basically a transfer of wealth from regular consumers and small businesses in favor of lawyers and corporations, all because a couple big markets feel like they deserve way more than what they've earned through the open market and have opted to pursue a strategy of geopolitical speculation.
To be fair, this is what people say about globalization too
Yeah, you can't act like the globalized system is somehow fair without favoring a select group of countries
Globalization is nothing but global neoFeudalism. Sovereign governments converted to labor management devices.
Gotta love the way Ireland sits in the WTO graph at 6:30
Lol Ireland will be overrun by migrants soon. 🔜
That's basically a show of wealth being hidden through the Irish tax heaven
@@draugrdraugr heaven ?! hmm, guess it could be. A haven thats heaven !!!
As if to say, EU...Europe ?! Fook All, we're over here past the Sino aggregate with USA and Canada.
6:30
This is just such a beautiful visual. Love it.
What a shitty time to become an adult. Skyrocketing housing prices, a pandemic and many wars affecting food prices and now the estimates are that inflation will get even worse? For God's sake, I really hope it won't be as bad as it seems.
Right on my lunch time, let's go
let'ssss goooo
gura my dog died LETS GOOOO
gura my dog died LETS GOOOO
@@hello-rq8kf A fellow chumbud, I see. Keep frying rice like a good shrimp!
what is a lestgo ???
Finally, a new video from my fav channel
Interesting choice of labels and country groupings.
You are by far the best Economics channel on RUclips. Thank you for your analysis.
Data is sort of questionnable. Particularly during the "first wave of globalization".
Did "trade openess," measured by imports and exports, simply increase naturally over time as economies could simply produce more goods(due to the industrial revolution and technology in general) and thus trade more goods?
It is possibly a mischaracterization to use imports and exports to measure trade openness.
In other words, states may have simply had more excess goods to trade due to technology increasing output, and thus traded more, but were not necessarily more "open" or willing to trade with each other
The 1st 20 years of my life we lived in a fragmented world. I don't want to go back to that world.
how old are you
@@oskars1419 I'm pretty sure that OP is talking about the economic blocks that formed during the Cold War. The Berlin Wall fell in 1989, so you can do the math.
@@isoldam 56
@@oskars1419 55 years old.
You vill go into zat vorld, as Putin told you to.
Would love to hear your thoughts about price revolutions, and how the current one will affect economics
I would be careful stating that reduced trade leads to inflation. Less trade also effects the GDP equation, thus the agregate demand (AD).
13:34 - 13:35 I think there is a typo in the subtitles. A ladder not a letter.
I thought Subtitles were generated by AI?
@@moxinghbianyes. But, I do generate them separately from RUclips and go through it once by hand to hopefully catch errors
Maybe you could analyse the economic policies of Geert Wilders?
Open source, collaborative economic development with open access to IP is likely to solve the fragmentation issue, as everyone gains access to unprecedented productive potential. Win-win for everyone, but maybe ahead of its time.
Why are you calling them the axis? That seems like poisoning the well off the bat.
I know it can have negative connotations. But, to my knowledge the name is neutral and refers to a geographic axis (originally the Italy Germany axis).
@@MoneyMacro Yeeeah... unfortunately its actually well known use in such contexts was initially coined as an 'axis of facism', and has been used quite often, loudly, and publically in the form 'axis of evil'. As a name for an alliance of nations it was never neutral. At it's most neutral it was explicitly a term used by facist leaders/propaganda to refer to the alliance of Italy and Germany in ww2. it's only got worse from there.
It's reasonably neutral in general, as a description, right up until you use it as a Name for an alliance (or something vaguely alliance-looking) of nations opposing a seemingly-unified '"West' plus friends", at which point the neutrality goes right out the window, at least to most English speakers because it is automatically and immediately associated with Nazi Germany.
The joys of language and propaganda.
@@MoneyMacro lol, you very well know what you did, don't try to gaslight people... Claiming that axis has neutral connotations is ridiculous. And no, it is not a name that was used in a far-gone, removed conflict. Everyone knows the implication of calling axis and allies (which very clearly has a positive implication, even taking out WWII context) to each block.
And then if you take into account that every major axis power is in your "allies" block, and the two countries that suffered the most (china and ussr) against axis countries are placed into the "axis" camp, then it becomes even more ridiculous. At least if you had named it the other way around you would have had some ground to defend the naming... But I guess then the propaganda goal wouldn't have been fulfilled.
@@MoneyMacro so you think Nazis are neutral? got it
@@MoneyMacro If you know that it can have negative connotations then you know that it isn't neutral.
Mexico hearing little finger looks so happy 😂😂😂
I understand the narrative, but describing the USSR and the Western Allies as one economic block before WW2 is quite the framing, considering Molotov-Ribbentrop.
Whats that?
Using the current maps to describe alliances 100 years ago is also not a good move. It looks like Poland was a German ally, despite of not existing at all and being occupied by both Russia and Germany
BRO THE ALLIES JUST OUT AND ABOUT SACRIFICE THE CZECH IN MUNICH
@@vipcypr8368It can be said Poland dug their own grave, none of their Eastern European allies lifted a hand because Poland, a novel state who was constantly on the verge of repeating the Deluge, thought itself to be a second Polish-Lithunian commonwealth and screwed over everyone over minor interests. Nationalists will screw themselves over and over and learn nothing from it.
@@vipcypr8368
Actually, poland was a political entity through the entirety of the interwar period. After all, it was the invasion of poland that kicked off WWII in europe.
Also, Poland was a Germam collaborator for all of big H's land grabs until poland. They shared in Austria, Czech republic, and Hungary.
Thank you for your videos!
Great video and explanation!
2:19 what's up with that map, Ethiopia was very much on the side of the allies, their war with Italy was one of the precursors to WW2
That map is going to haunt my nightmares. It makes absolutely no sense. What in the hell is going on with Burma? Why is the Central Asian part of the Soviet Union not part of the Allies? There is no end to the madness of that map.
Excellent Video, your Channel is a real Gem!
Didn't realize this content was dense/heavy? I find this entertaining as some of my friends would watch hockey/game of thrones.
This was very interesting
Why is the 2 Allied nations that fought the hardest and suffered the most lost in WW2 labeled "Axis" while the 3 Axis powers in WW2 are labeled "Allies"?
Westoid logic in a nutshell. No wonder they call literal neo-Nazis and Islamofascists "moderate rebels".
Same reason canada "accidentally" called ukrnian ww2 german veteran that worked in genocidal ww2 camps. Time to accept faxicsm in fact won whoever fought them was useful whiteknight
Fascist propaganda at its finest. They think they're the good guys. lol
Pro-West propaganda
@@user-ce5vd2qv7y agree
Superb piece
Excellent, very clear.
one thing not covered here is that by the early 2010's globalization was mainly aiding US competitors chief among them China. While american growth was sluggish, public and private debt skyrocketed, social tensions caused by wealth imbalances started political destabilization and radicalization. A system that works well for economic expansion at the price of long-term security and growth should not be maintained especially when it is financed by debt that returns less than the actual credit. (just think of the Fed's QE ledger.)
As it is covered in the material interest rates will be higher overall, and I am also expecting the price of government borrowing rates to go up even higher compared to reference central bank rates: think of the reforms on the us repo markets.
What we see here is a re-prioritization of objectives where economic growth shifts from number one and security becomes priority.
It's natural that poorer countries grow more than rich countries
@@FOLIPE it's natural that the hegemon takes actions to retain its leading position
As shown at 6:30 and as a Canadian, I am happy to see that I am part of the economic block that includes the USA, Mexico and...Kazakhstan !
I'm super curious what that random KAZ arrow is all about. Are the arrows pointing in the direction of exports?
@@kinseywk I believe you are correct. For instance, between Germany and China, the arrow points both ways. Germany being a big exporter of industrial machinery and China of everything else back to Germany. I am thinking of starting an export/import business, so I should consult with Borat?
Yeah, that was unexpected 😁
That wishful copium that kazackstan will be the next ukr by the merican delusion. I noticed US is desperate to include kazackstan everywhere with USA
Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 super power 2025
I really like the Cyberpunk 2077 corpo path video excerpt, greatly fits the part where you explain how big corporations will win from fragmentation. And is just great that perhaps you’re a fan of this remarkable game 🙂
Excellent.
China has not been promoting de-globalization, nor has EU.
then there's no problem, those ar two markets, plus Russia
I don’t think he was ever saying deglobalization was a plan. I believe he was saying it is a consequence or effect of increased political hostility. Such as Ukraine and NATO vs Russia has led to sanctions and sanctions decrease trade.
hi there.
my family has a small import/export business (specifically exporting commodities from one of those places that the world recently decided is not supposed to export commodities)...
in 2022 all of EU/Japan business vanished and in about 2 weeks was replaced with business from middleman economies (which to our surprise increased), so other than some uncertainty and changes in logistics, it has been business as usual. though this year has seen some slowdown, it's been in line with the industry as a whole.
Really appreciate your ability to clearly articulate how economies function relative to real world scenarios.
I was wondering where his labor was going.
3 seconds in you already know the channel bias by east being labeled as "axis" and west "allies".
Thanks so much for creating and sharing this informative video. Great job. Keep it up.
that map at 2:23 is very bizarre why did you mark Myanmar as Axis. They were still a british colony and were invaded by the japanese?
They are under chinese control now.
He uses modern maps for all of those. Just don’t take those maps too seriously
Alright my favorite economist uploaded
Fantastic and very clear video. Excellent.
Brilliant Joeri. Especially your winners & losers section.
To think everyone said there will never be another world war since the economy is so globalized. That graph and history says something completely different. 2:00
Excellent analysis as usual. I really appreciate your measured objective approach.
Thank you!
I think the increased self-reliance (re-shoring) in an increasingly multipolar world (fragmented) is an overall good. It does not necessarily fragment economies, rather it can strengthen national economies by providing opportunities for domestic workers and reducing national liabilities.
Suffering will only accure over a short time period, in the long run it will reduce inequality, and increase purchasing power.
That is because of Technology evols and makes goods cheaper and easier to produce, with less people also there is less competition and more demand of people and therfore wages increase.
Like in the 50-70s bevor.
wow it seems we truly live in a historical time
Would be interesting to know if this same has happened much earlier than the examples you given?
While not directly comparable, the earliest known example of a "global" trade network implosion was the Bronze Age Collapse. That happened about 3000 yeas ago. Historia Civilis has a great video on it if you wish to learn more.
Or Venetian and Ottomans controlling red sea which led to decline of silk road and spice trade until Spain and Portugal started navigation to find new routes
Australia would fit much more in the category of "connector economies" than the bloc youve labeled "allies" given their largest trade partner is china, and that isn't likely to change.
Except our Au/NZ politicians are hellbent on joining military alliances against our biggest trading partner. US has a 3:1 trade imbalance with China. UK it's 2.5 : 1. Compare with Aus at 1 : 1.5 in your favour and NZ just over 1:1 in our favour.
It’s insane how much the old and new axis have in common if you think about it
There is no deglobilization! Apple just opened 4 more stores in Shanghai. Wallmart has 400 stores and mamy Sam's Clubs as well as Tesla etc. Etc....just shifts in the world economy as always!!!!!
Are you by chance using AI to generate the icons for your videos now?
Somtimes. But, not in this case. Here I used a website called flaticon.
Maybe you don't want to focus too much on history, but I'd love to see a video on who were the winners of the first de-globalization wave
Interesting video. Thank you for not using background music.
Pretty decent summation and analysis. However, absent are the affects of regional/national demographics and the maritime supply chain which empowered both periods of globalization.
Nice of you to put on Russia-China area "Axis" mark, considering they actually sacrificed the most in the war against actual "Axis" forces. Very professional, not like cheap propaganda at all.
Russia sacrificed so much in that war, starting with eastern half of Poland, right?
@@kryiptton3855 Well, I would redirect this remark to some contemporary anti Russian Ukrainian historian.
@@strangelylookingperson explain?
@@kryiptton3855 Eastern Poland (or current Western Ukraine) was annexed by Soviet dictator Stalin. I neither support or benefit from this action.
Main beneficiary from this was Ukraine, which nationalistic leaders and their followers, later, when Soviet forces retreated under pressure from Nazis, happily joined Germans and started genocide (mass killings) of local Jews and Poles on this territory. And the very leaders of this movement, Bandera, Shuhevich, who were main idealogical and organizational leaders, now praised in Ukraine as national heroes, both in mass media and in "academic" circles.
Can't be the "Ally" if your close ally chooses Nazis as national heroes.
@@strangelylookingperson i understand your point of view and I’m grateful I learned something new today. Yet I fail to see how this makes sense in the context where “Russia-China area …. Sacrificed the most in the war against the Axis”. Ribbentrop-Molotov means nothing then?
I would love to learn from you. However I am completely unable to attend or follow any schedule and my good intentions just don't pay the bills. Call it a moment 22 if you like. I wish you luck and maybe you will release the courseware for free in the future.
This is a far better channel than Economics Explained which has become somewhat pretentious. Grt job👍
I think labeling the other side as Axis is highly questionable. It is very much associated with the axis Berlin-Rome and thus the fascist dictatorships of 20th century Europe that have committed the worst man-made atrocities in history. I view your channel with high credibility and respect, but this is below your standard. I would strongly advise you change the Thumbnail at least.
The worst atrocities were Stalin and Mao, so Russia and China.
Looks like blocs in the 1984 book.
Brave new world*
Re potential winners: Australia provides large quantities of iron ore, coal and other commodities. There will always be a huge spot market to sell into, regardless of trade barriers. This allowed Australia to continue to make money in the face of Chinese sanctions some years ago.
Australia is so reliant on China for trade it will not go well for them.
Will interests rise? Apparently in Russia it's investment which rose as money can no longer flee the country to be invested in London and other financial markets, and had to be switched to real investments inside the country. Breton Woods was sort of like this and it was quite successful?
I think you are wrong in using the terms axis and allies that's like trying to compare WW1 and WW2 making central powers the axis and entente the allies. There are no 2 opposing blocks for example BRICS, has different loyalties look at India, China and Brazil and UAE they have ties to China, Russia, America and EU. Similarly Turkey has relations with both the West and Russia. Europe also has big ties to China and still buys Russian products on a more limited scale. I will give you the benefit of the doubt but that's bordering on propaganda that everything outside the West is automatically evil.
On the world trade chart it doesn;t seem to include any of Africa or South America apart from Brazil. but does include Maldives and Nepal?
It excluded most of the world... It'd be interesting to add South America because some of those countries trade more with China, others with the US and others with Brazil...
I was wondering the same thing from a South African perspective. SA is in both worlds, part of BRICS and at the same time highly integrated in the west. What does that mean in terms of future exchange of jobs, people, goods, as well as wars, currencies, etc?
Brazil has it own mini trading black with being the main partner of Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. Colombia and Venezuela have the US and the rest of South America trade with China.
Might be interesting on a decentralised economy and local communities running blockchain.
What would happen with a BTC global economy when countries cannot use quantitative easing and I guess are at the mercy of local geographical output?
great video!
Thanks!
U are best i am a teenager my dream To save my country from thieving presidents.
U are adding something to me thank u
4:22 But that wasn't first! When Russia annexed Crimea, West introduced sanctions against Russia, to which Russia responded with these sanctions
I think Joeri didn't look into the Russian economical events that much, this isn't even the only related lapse in information in this video, iirc.
The West didn't lift sanctions from China and Russia since beginning. So nothing real new. Just a peak of western fascism
When Israel annexed Gaza I get it
I think what is different this time is the reduction in the dollar trade volume.
This way American inflation will stay in the us, and they will not be able to export their inflation.
Secondly, the manufacturing world base is.in India chian and Vietnam,
3rdly..goods produced in the west will become more expensive for both internal markets and even worse for external markets.
2:38
Why is Finland marked in red?
They never joined the axis.
They where co-belligerent die to sharing a enemy with the axis but they never signed the axis treaties, had separate goals and ran a separate foreign policy.
And they definitely still traded with nations like Sweden...
It's a serious thing but when looking at a map like 1:08 or 19:00 I can't help but think "failed state alliance" when looking at the supposed rivals of the west.
Like China is a serious contender and Russia, while no where near in size is somewhat significant but everyone else in that block seems to be in a pretty poor situation, from hyperinflation, massive numbers of refugees fleeing the countries, civil war and economic decline.
I'm sure they look back in the same way. Remember there is a lot of propaganda from both sides between your view and reality of those countries. Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems.
China is the biggest global economy by PPP stats.
The real adversaries of the West in the coming century are China, India, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Nigeria, Kenya, and the Arab world.
Russia is the powerhouse of minerals and China is for maNUFACTURING
In your video you establish that two previous major world economic fragmentations ended in world wars.
And in your final thoughts you explore who might win or loose from a continuing global economic fragmentation without addressing the risk of continued political and military escalation?
Shouldn’t this be a major consideration considering the potential implications?
Now the major powers have nukes. So, I figured it's less likely... Or complete destruction for us all.
It seems that proxy wars are the norm once again, eg the Ukraine, Africa. Interlaced with private wars by big business (eg Mozambique), which eventually are also governments in a way. With the US depending so heavily on their war industry… Is the world seeing the same cold war patterns from the past?
The link to your blog post shows error 404 currently. One has to find the post manually on the site.
Thanks for letting me know. I updated the link.
good content with slow delivery, but I loved it once I turned the speed up to X1.25 in the settings
I wish you could have a one on one with Peter Zeihan!
Joeri, you did not like Peter Zeihan a lot in your previous video, but you seem to be reading from his playbook now.
I critiqued him for being very hyperbolic in his China prediction while saying that he got a lot of trends right. That doesn't contradict this video, right?
The reality of running a RUclips channel is no different than a TV news channel: you have to balance facts with hyperboles and politics to get viewership and sponsorship. Quite a few of the geopolitical and economics channels I used to watch have gone full Peter Zeihan and cash in on Russia / China. Just a few hours ago I saw a computer parts review channel talking about CCP and I was like WFT!
@@MoneyMacro Not seen your video on Zeihan but my own experience of his videos has been that he speaks like a know-it-all while having very superficial knowledge. I know because I also have only surface-level knowledge regarding many other parts of the world (like Russia-Ukraine, etc) but one area I have an ultradeep level of knowledge in is the country I live in. And Zeihan is totally off, not to mention condescending, in his assessment of my country.