week 15 Sunday picks

I have said this a few times, but after 4 and 1 last week, I find this another tough week. when the model goes one way, trends or injuries go the other way. But I have two plays, Jax is getting 3.5 laying 115, and my numbers counting injuries suggest they should be a slight favorite. that said, Mac jones makes this a volatile game (pick 6s make a bigger difference than people realize). he has 5 picks, but only 4 turnover worthy throws, and in 123 attempts, that is decent. this might be a low scoring game, and in many of these 3.5 points can be a lot. I also am on carolina laying 2.5. the big factor here is that the panthers have been a different team the last few weeks (often, it is hard to tell if this is an abberation, but Bryce Young LOOKS like a different QB. they are also healthy, and a big factor is that the cowboys starting center (who played the whole year) was injured last week, so they have a new center. the center might well be the second most important position in football.