I think he made the gifts because she was marrying Drogo. He is the most powerful Khal, so the weeding gift had to be magnificent. And also, he needs to remind Drogo she is a Targaryen, her family once rule over all of westeros, so Drogo need to get that kingdom back for his sons.
I agree. I also wonder now if Drogo was killed because it was an opportune time. Kill Drogo, Viserys is dead and Dany is alone (with three dragon eggs). No one knew the eggs would or could hatch (that was the one anomaly in the whole situation). The easiest thing in the world to do now is kidnap or kill Dany, take the eggs back and leave a clear path for young Griff to the Iron Throne. Or, alternatively, they could marry Dany to Young Griff, which would bolster his claim. Those eggs hatching into dragons threw the whole scheme into disarray. Instead of her being vulnerable, it made her powerful instead.
Illyrio to be fair didn't expect the Dragon Eggs to hatch. The Targaryens didn't have a egg hatch since the Dance of Dragons. So given Dany the Dragon Eggs made perfect sense. After Griff is on the throne and Illyrio would Quietly pocket the Eggs. Now since the Dragon Eggs hatched Illyrio can't prove Dany is a Blackfyre and he is out three Dragon Eggs. I am pretty sure Illyrio had said WTF. What do you mean the eggs hatched. The Young Griff as far as we know doesn't have Dragon Dreams. The Dragons may roast him like Quentin Martell.
Good luck telling this guy he’s over thinking something. No no no The children of the forest are disguised as humans you see. 😂. One of the most glaring “I am super smart” (but actually clueless) cases I’ve seen on the internet in a while. It’s really pretty hilarious, I find myself having to keep checking in to see what “insight” he thinks he’s come up with next
Cool theory, but I genuinely think people are overthinking this. Illyrio gave Dany the eggs because he wanted to give a Targaryen princess a good wedding gift. A dragon hasn't hatched from an egg in over a century, and a healthy one hasn't hatched since even before that. The last time dragon eggs were tried to hatch, people died. He didn't give them to Aegon because Aegon isn't ruling because of his bloodline. Like Stannis, he will rule because he should rule. Giving Aegon the eggs would go back on all the training they have given him and put him in unnecessary danger. Illyrio is also rich. He has no need to more valuable things. Dany is just a pawn. Viserys was always the real player because he was a Man and had a direct claim to the throne. Dany was just a vehicle for Viserys to use to get the throne. When the eggs hatch, Viserys dies, and Dany lives, Illyrio sends 3 ships full of goods to Dany. He wanted Dany to sail back and marry Aegon. Dany went from a pawn being sacrificed to an actual player and Illyrio acknowledges that. Dany, of course, sold the stuff and bought the Unsullied and began taking cities. Plans changed, Aegon and Jon Con are called back then sent to Dany. If she won't come to them, they will go to her. It's much more likely that all 3 targaryens are legitimate and that Illyrio just didn't plan on the eggs being useful or Dany being important. So, what is Illyrio's master plan? Surely, there is a massive web on conspiracies, right? Maybe it's not. He wanted Viserys on the throne, but because of his childhood, had become unstable and would make a bad king. The most powerful Khal needs a wife, Viserys needs an army, Dany is unmarried. Illyrio can let the unstable Viserys try in vain to lead the Dothraki to Westeros while Aegon continues training until its time to strike. He gives Dany dragon eggs to show his support for Viserys and to please Drogo, thinking the eggs were useless for his cause. Dany lives, and her eggs hatch. Illyrio sees value in that and sends 3 ships to bring her back to marry Aegon. Dany refuses and uses the ships to conquer 3 cities. She stays in Mereen, so instead of waiting, Illyrio sends Aegon to her. The Golden Company, The Unsullied, and 3 growing dragons would instantly reclaim the throne. This just makes sense. There is no potential plot holes or need for elaborate conspiracies about Blackfyres.
I think you and others overestimate Illyrio's wealth. If Illyrio was so wealthy he could throw dragon eggs away, he could just hire faceless assassins to kill anybody he wanted to further his plot.
@@Vmac1394 It is implied that it isn't just money that the Faceless Men take for an assassination. They want something that has real value to the person paying (and likely real value for them). A true sacrifice proportional to the wealth of the person who is hiring them. I don't think anyone can afford their services for long.
@Vmac1394 Who would they have assassinated? Which people are that important that only a faceless man could kill them? Cercei and Joffrey are and were making Westeros weaker, so why would Illyrio order them dead? A narcissistic Queen and her incest bastard son as King fits perfectly into the plan of installing a new King. Also, we would never know if he hired a faceless man. The only reason we know about them is because Arya is with them and Euron brags about it.
Agreed. I think Illyrio also thought he can get the eggs back from Dany before she left for Westeros. Because Drogo was only supposed to take Dany to Dosh Khaleen then go back to Pentos to get on ships to Westeros. It's why Viserys going with Dany was a change in plans- he was supposed to wait with Illyrio but worried Drogo wouldn't come back. He probably was going to "hold onto them" for Dany while she invaded to get his money back, so to say. fAegon doesn't need to pretend Dany is a Blackfyre for him to seem more legitimate. The leaders of Westeros already know Dany exists (& that her and Viserys survived), but everyone thinks Aegon is dead, so even with a crown story why would people believe both that the real Aegon is actually alive AND that while Dany and V are alive, these two are NOT them. It's a lot to believe and the best lies are as simple as possible. The people don't care about Targ legitimacy at this point. They care that an invader came, killed a bunch of people with a foreign army (bad) and then someone else came and saved them (good). Even without either being a Targ it may work. But passing a Blackfyre child off as a Targ that was "good" gives extra legitimacy to fAegon's claim. Also, I think everyone overlooks & thinks too much about the lemon tree in Bravos memory. It's not said that lemon trees physically can't grow in Bravos, just that it's difficult and very expensive. So it's a hint that they were living in the palace of the Sea Lord- that's it.
I took Ageon being a play on how it the real world children of monarchy would got killed years later impersonators showing up claiming to have survived and are so and so.
It's like giving someone a scratch off ticket as a gift. You don't expect them to win anything. But you still needed to get them something and it was all they had at the gas station.
There are obvious problems with this theory: Viserys and Daenerys are publicly known to be the children of Aerys and Rhaella. Robert knows about them and discusses them with his Small Council in the first book. Second, the Blackfyres are publicly believed to have gone extinct when Maelys the Monstrous was killed. He was the last Blackfyre pretender, and as far as everyone knows, there are no more Blackfyres. The whole world knows that Rhaella had a daughter who would be Daenerys' age, and the whole world believes that the Blackfyres don't exist anymore, but they are going to convince people that Daenerys is a Blackfyre, because she has dragon eggs and because she remembers a house with a red door and a lemon tree? And then they would be assuming that anyone who wants the Targaryens back would not be just as satisfied with a Blackfyre. Tyrion makes the point that Young Griff should seek the support of the Golden Company because, at this point, they would be just as happy to support a Targaryen claimant as a Blackfyre. The whole idea just doesn't work.
i think it's more "woman shows up claiming to be Daenerys with an absolutely insane story to explain everything" Illyrio and Varys: ORRRRR you're full of shit and here's why
Why would anyone be listening to Illyrio? Or Varys, for that matter? And what, they will think she's a Blackfyre because she will tell them about a childhood memory of a lemon tree, and they will say, wait a minute, there are no lemon trees in Braavos except in the garden of the Sea Lord, and if she has an inaccurate memory from early childhood, she cannot possibly be who she says she is? They won't think that way. Nobody would think that way. She is the right age and sex to be Aerys and Rhaella's daughter, and she clearly looks like a Targaryen, and probably resembles her parents specifically. And she'll have an army with her. That's as far as anyone will consider the issue. @@TheCreepyLantern
@@redrackham6812the more you examine the more it looks like what it is a theory without the least substance to back it up. I hope George RR Martin sees to what extent the absence of Winds of Winter is driving the fans
Thank you for pointing all this out. I agree with IDG’s theory. People read to much into the lemon tree. We know of Braavos climate from Arya’s chapter. By the time she makes it there it’s already fall/beginning of winter. Dany lived there during the longest summer in living memory. It would’ve had a different climate at that point. If the Starks can grow winter roses in a greenhouse, why can’t the sealord grow a lemon tree?
If viserys lives in this timeline he’s even more proof they’re Targaryens. He was seen and met by lords and ladies of the realm, ser barriston remembers his personality as well. And viserys would confirm Dany is his sister
You would think that with their line being basically extinct they would decide that blackfyres are targaryen enough for inbreeding and just set aside old quarrels.
@@9and7the major rebellions have ended but young griff MIGHT be a blackfyre (there’s also a theory that says that since he has black hair he is the son of Elia and Rhaegar)
@@maanyashukla326@maanyashukla326 The male line of the Blackfyres is gone, but what about the female line? There is a theory that Illyrio's late wife was a Blackfyre and possibly Varys' sister or relative, and Young Griff/Aegon is actually her son with Illyrio.
It’s a cool theory and way to explain it but the Baratheon throne knew of and kept track of Dany and Visery as legitimate children of Aerys for decades, there was no mistaking them otherwise. They even sent Sorrowful men assassins. Meanwhile Young Aegon was meant to invade at the head of the Golden Company, you know, the mercenary company set up by Blackfyres, and who have repeatedly invaded Westeros in the name of the Blackfyres. And he will be wielding the sword Blackfyre.
To be fair it's mostly Varys who keeps them updated and arranges those assassination. But yeah I think it would be asking a lot even for Varys to do a complete u-turn and say Daenerys was a Blackfyre, but maybe he would just offer it as propaganda for those in Westeros who would rather have Aegon on the throne. I think the real reason Varys gives those eggs away is because he hates and fears magic. In that draft copy it says Maelys the Monstrous gave his son to the fire to hatch the Blackfyre eggs. Varys wants them as far away from Aegon as possible. Trying to hatch a dragon has killed plenty of Targs before. Maybe he thought Dany or Viserys would die a similar death.
This theory tracks with Quaithe's numerous reminders to Dany about remembering who she is; her emphasis on Dany proving some lie about a cloth dragon; not trusting a perfumed seneschal...wow! What an awesome video. Nice job.
Yeah I see the Blackfyre suspicion on Young Griff as all the more reason to muddy the waters. If your political candidate has a scandal you better find a few scandals on the other side to make it a both sides thing so people can just pick whoever they like best (in this case the one not pillaging them with Dothraki)
@@michaeltalksaboutstuff it would be a galaxy-brain chess move to have GC fight for Dany but “probably” not a great plan if your intention is to come in and wipe out her forces. Which is too bad because there’s blurbs about Viserys meeting GC brass which could have paid off nicely
Nice video, one counter-point to the theory that rumor is spread that Denny is Blackfyre, is that Robert and the small council already know who Danny and Vyseris are, so trying to start such rumor so later on is kinda impractical, no one would believe.
I just like to point out that trees don't grow in Braavos except the garden of the mighty. Also, the Sealord of Braavos stood witness when the marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne was being made. So it's rather likely that Dany at one point in time stayed at the garden of mighty if not the at the Sealords Palace itself.
That's something else I don't understand. The Braavosi were descendants of the slaves of Ancient Valyrian slavers and in recent history they clashed with the Targaryens on multiple occasions. The Braavosi lent ships to House Arryn to fight off Aegon the Conqueror and they almost went to war with Jaehaerys the First over the dragon eggs. Given their history, _can anyone tell me why the _*_FUCK_*_ would the Braavosi be part of any plot to restore the Targaryens to the Iron Throne?!!!_ It straight up dont make any sense!
Targaryens aren't slavers. They never have been. Braavos has no reason to oppose them. Neither do the Faceless Men, which is why they never killed Dany even when she hatched dragons.
@@DavidLightbringer The Targaryens _were_ slavers. All of the Valyrian families were. There is a quote somewhere that Aenar Targaryen fled Valyria with his family dragons wealth and slaves. So they definitely brought slaves with them on Dragonstone. Also right now there is a Faceless Assassin in Oldtown who infiltrated the Citadel and is looking for a book called _'The Death of Dragons'_ That's suggestive yes? I also believe the theory that it was they and the masters who caused the Doom of Valyria in the first place.
@@gerardjagroo they weren't slavers after conquering westeros and dragons were extinct, so they didn't pose a threat to braavos. faceless men and braavosi aren't the same
I think you're making it a little too complicated. Illyrio knows exactly who and what Viserys is. Remember, a gift to Danny was actually a gift to Drogo. Those eggs were a lure to ensure Viserys did something stupid, and got himself killed. (you know he convinced Viserys he should keep an eye on his investment) He was never worried about Danny rising to power. She was a submissive child. He didn't expect her to survive, much less thrive, among the Hoard. But even if she did, she was married to a "savage" who would never cross the "poison water" - leaving the way clear for Young Griff. THAT was worth the price of those eggs, which he could probably recover at a later date, since they had no value to the Dothraki.
I actually agree with this 💯 percent it makes sense for him too kind of sell the Targaryens too some dothraki savages and they would probably die out there, leaving no living legitimate Targaryens who claims aren't dubious like faegon and would pay anyone too get them back once they were dead he truly didn't think those eggs would hatch.
But the whole point of the attempted poisoning of Dany was to bring Drogo to Westeros. Before the poisoning, Illyrio says to Varys he needs more time, but Varys says it’s not possible. The poisoning was supposed to be the perfect acceleration for Drogo coming to Westeros. I’m not even sure if Dany was supposed to survive, or if that was Jorah intervening
Okay, please address this. Really seal things off for me. If they are working to discredit her, why tell Robert that Vaserys and Danerys are plotting over the sea? Why not present it as "some people CLAIMING to be Vaserys and Danerys"?
@@harryknapper1133 If they're trying to build a narrative that they are Targaryen pretenders... why tell Robert they are real? With his hate for Targaryens, he would have probably sent assassins anyway, and he would have spread it to anyone who would hear it. Doesn't matter if he survives or not. Seems like in Westeros, if you want a lie to be believed, you get a king to say it.
He plan was to use the Dothraki to put Viserys on the throne. No one knew Drogo would kill him. Viserys had no defenders. He had no money. He & Dany were freeloading off of Illyrio. If he wanted to get rid of them and put Griffin on the throne, why not just kill them? I think he was playing both sides because he doesn't know which one of them will make it all the way to the throne.
Because at the start of the story Westos would not be welcoming to any Targaryen Monarch be it Viserys, Dany or Griffin. While I disagree that the eggs where an attempt to frame Viserys and Dany as blackfyres (the gift and marriage where way too known for that to actually work) The idea that Illyrio is attempting to create a hated enemy to be slain in order for a Targaryen Monarch to become viewed as a welcome savior and not the mad King 2.0 is completely reasonable. As is the idea that he was setting Viserys up to be that enemy.
Nah. Too many people, key players both dead and alive, were keeping track of Dany and knew she wasn't a Blackfyre. That kills the theory for me right there.
Many characters in the whole Saga with illegitimate claims stayed in power even tho people were keeping track of them and most people knowing that they are illegitimate. Like each one of Cersei's incest brats who rule as Fake Baratheons / Pretenders would be the most prominent ones I guess. Usually in the whole Saga it's like people with legitimate claims or illegitimate claims just do what they want to do, no matter if the 'plebs' or any people with less power believe or support their story. If you think about it, the whole Saga is about how legitimate Kings or rulers mess up pretty much everything for their own good. It would be consequential to put a competent young Pretender who is perfectly educated and trained for being a great leader on the Iron Throne, especially after several Pretenders couldn't properly rule over a dozen pigs. Framing Dany (or before that, Viserys) to be a pretender while putting a (potential) pretender on the Throne would be a genius move and some insane thing to pull off but it wouldn't be the first time something like this was executed with or without success in the World of aSoIaF. Isn't this one of the greatest lessons of the Saga, that it doesn't matter if people know you are a lier / pretender / illegitimate if you just have enough power (support from many houses, priests, money / gold)? Afaik there are even several amazing dialogues in the books about exactly this.
Through all the young Griffin sections, I keep thinking how when the rest of Westros meets fAegon, with Blackfyre in his hand, and the gold company with him, they are going to notice it's a Blackfyre invasion. The Blackfyre eggs are only in the early drafts, and not in the main stories, which suggests GRRM probably dropped the idea. Framing Dany as a Blackfyre is a very interesting idea, but with fAegon turning up with the Blackfyre's Company and the sword, I just don't get how anyone could mistake fAegon as anything other than a Blackfyre himself.
I think the important part is that most people won't care. His opponents will talk about him being a blackfyre, but his allies will just never acknowledge the possibility, because it doesn't really matter when they can be on the winning side.
Tyrion: How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens? Illyrio: Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre. And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.[6] -Tyrion Lannister and Illyrio Mopatis
Was Young Griff a late addition? Perhaps. My recollection of book 1 and the Varys plan came from Arya overhearing them talking about Stark and Lannister fighting too early (for the Targ invasion). Perfectly plausible that their plan was to support Viserys however the narrative kills him so Dany inherits the narrative claim at that point. However enough room to grow Young Griff into the narrative later. Particularly with the growth in the number of books.
The Dragon eggs to Dany when thinking a bit more about motivations of Varys (supporting Griff or Dany) was a cash bung to ensure/ease invasion whether to put Viserys on throne or, with revisions, fAegon.
Yeah this seems to be a very convoluted plan and theory. I don't have a great answer as to why she got the eggs, but would bet it was pre-arranged when the tragaryans left bravos and illyrio is simply taking credit for something he was bound to do through diplomacy. If he really wanted them to be caught as blackfyres why would the plan have been for young Griff to meet up with them. I think it's more likely that the dragon has 3 heads and aegon, viscerys and Dany were meant to conquer westerns together bringing legitimacy to aegon rather than that they were meant to fight one another. Would have been much easier to undermine the legitimacy simply by letting vicerys ruin everything and letting him whore out Dany in his desperation to survive, while aegon gets the eggs, the army and the legitimacy. There is no way that the golden company could take westeros before littlefinger destabilized the empire independent of varys and illyrio. So having the golden company to occupy and seige with a dothraki raiding force as vanguard would be necessary if westeros wasn't completely fractured
Great theory! One of the issues I have with it though is that if the Golden Company is part of (F)aegon’s army, wouldn’t it give away that he is a Blackfyre and not Dany?
Tyrion: How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens? Illyrio: Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre. And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.[6] -Tyrion Lannister and Illyrio Mopatis
I think we really need to keep the diegetic and extradiegetic arguments separate. There is no way that GRRM had already planned out the Young Griff plotline at the time he wrote the first outline to Daenerys' storyline for A Game of Thrones, because a version of Dany's first chapter was actually published _before_ A Game of Thrones, and back in that time, GRRM's outline for the series as a whole was still absolutely wild. Even at the time of AGoT's release, the series was still planned to be a trilogy. Not to mention that this kind of planning of storylines literally a decade in advance is just not how "Gardening" works. I'm 99% confident that there was no concept of Young Griff in GRRM's mind when he conceptualized Dany's story arc in AGoT. That's not helping us to figure out what goes on with Varys and Illyrio in-universe in the current version of the story, but it does help us to weed out arguments and motivations in theory-crafting that are fallacious from the onset - like somehow fitting Young Griff into the _original_ version of Varys' and Illyrio's plan. We have to recognize that every attempt to make him fit into their plans, whether it's done by GRRM or by us, is a _retroactive_ attempt, i. e. a "retcon" or at least retroactive reinterpretation to at least some extent. This is simply something unavoidable when you use this kind of writing style.
This 100%, only little nitpick I have is the whole trilogy plan, George may have wanted that in the earliest stages of writing AGoT, but I think he knew it simply wasn't possible by the time AGoT released. Since he'd likely have some of ACoK written or thought through already, he'd have to know by that point there was no way he could end the War of the Five Kings, have the Long Night start and end AND have Dany finish her Essos plot and get to Westeros in just those two books. Ofc I don't think he expected to get himself side-tracked with AFFC and ADWD either, and he's clearly having a hard time getting back on track in general not to mention with the additional plot lines and characters from the 'diversions' that were AFFC/ADWD.
Nice vid.....but The Joker said it best "nobody panics when things go according to plan. Even if the plan is horrifying." We all wanna think the writers have things figured out and all of this will make sense by the end. When in reality the truth is probably "Young Griff" was never thought of before his intro into the books. Which could also explain why DnD cut him out all togther. He was a twist for the sake of a twist
i dont think it makes sense to suppose that theyre trying to frame Dany as a Blackfyre when it seems clear Illyrio has sent the sword Blackfyre (which disappeared with the Blackfyres) to fAegon in one of the chests. The eggs, however, speak of Targaryen legitimacy. And Westeros doesnt care about Blackfyre vs. Targaryen, really, especially now. The lemon tree memory isnt anything that can be used against her - like how would that work? Its just a fuzzy memory of hers. Also, fruit treees are grown in yhe gardens of the wealthy in Braavos, and lemon trees absolutely grow in other than tropical climates. I grew them in San Francisco. Plus, this whole elaborate and highly speculative theory is not needed - it makes sense that Illyrio wants to use Dany and Viserys and Drogo as the bad cop and fAegon, his son, as the good cop. Whats this about stolen Blackfyre eggs? Nobody thinks the Blackfyres have eggs. This theory doesnt hold water imo
So I will likely do a follow up video to this theory eventually. I could have presented some parts better and there are a lot of good points in a lot of comments and these are some good ones. I probably made it sound like a bigger part of the plan when really if true it was a small side detail to Illyrio and Varys. (It was the main point of my video, but a small part of their plan) The Blackfyre eggs were a thing mentioned in an old unused draft found in the Cushing library. I was going into speculation suggesting he may still include this in a bit of world building. He could reveal later that those eggs were purchased or linked to the Blackfyres in some way. The point of framing her as holding known Blackfyre artifacts would basically just be a bit of dirty politics and giving people a chance to see what they want to see, which seems very Varys and Illyrio. I agree with the main idea being going good cop bad cop with Dany vs Aegon. The framing they will be doing in that case is not unlike an election, trying to get everyone to support the side the want. Imagine it like you are about to go into an election and know your candidate has cheated on their spouse. Then you have the option to plant a story that credibly makes it look like the other candidate did the same thing. In this case you know your guy is going to be running around with Blackfyre artifacts so you give the other side some too. (in theory, again only holds up if the eggs end up being known to be that or Varys could produce some paper trail from the iron bank showing it) It wouldn't matter to most, but to those who would side with Dany if they thought she was legit and Aegon wasn't, it gives them enough reason to doubt and an excuse to side with Aegon. It would be a play for the super Targ loyalists to muddy the waters if they see Aegon with his known Blackfyre stuff. Sort of like even if only 10% of the voters will care about a scandal, it's still nicer for you if both sides have the same scandal. Illyrio wants to give his boy some Blackfyre stuff and have some cover, so he gives some Blackfyre stuff to the only other option people will have. Now it's no longer a knock on Aegon. And no one in Westeros has seen any of these blonde kids with their own eyes anyway so they will all just be showing up equally claiming to be Targs and looking kinda like them but holding some Blackfyre things. People get to choose the one they like with no guilt if it's all even. And thanks to the good cop bad cop that will lead to a guilt free Aegon sweep of even the most Blackfyre hating people. Basically it just always seems so weird to me that he wouldn't give the symbol of legitimacy to Aegon. So with him having the idea of a Blackfyre clutch of eggs in his mind, maybe it will be revealed to have been a symbol of illegitimacy the whole time. Agreed it is some hard core speculation using only bread crumbs and might not ever be needed. But to me would feel a little cooler than the idea he just gave her the valuable symbols of legitimacy he could have given to Aegon.
This is a really cool theory that falls apart the second you remember that Robert's council knew who Dany and Viserys were and had been tracking them since they fled Westeros.
I would look to motive. Who stands to gain/lose when/if dragons are actually hatched (i.e. the best/worst case scenario, depending on one's perspective)? If they never hatch. Nothing changes and it was just a pricey test. However, if you know/believe that "Winter is Coming"(The Prophecy/Long Night), then you know you need something to fight it, and there is nothing that can compete against WWs, other than dragons. Only "True Targs" can hatch dragons, but even then, there are no guarantees, so giving eggs to anyone has always been a bit of a gamble, or a "Hail Mary" of sorts, in this case. That being said, if someone really wanted/"needed" dragons Dany & Viz were, by far their "Last best hope" to hatch them, so they made sure they got the eggs, one way or the other. Not very many folks know about Dragons, WWs, Long Night, The Wall, Fire Magic, Astronomy, The changing of the Seasons, "The Prophecy", have an information network throughout the known world, et. al., and how they may all be related. Indeed, there is really only one group in Westeros that would know about such a wide range of related sacred and secular issues without allegiance to any one particular "Faith", while also having access to the texts, money and political connections to see that Dany gets the eggs.......Our humble servants THE MAESTERS ;) Pulling the "Ol' Switch-a-Roo" is nothing new for them (Paging "poor" Dr. Pycelle ;) ). Magic = Fake.....but every Maester has to spend a "Long Night" with a Glass Candle and Marwyn proves it can happen and is making a B-Line for Dany and the Dragons right now. Living Dragons = Long Gone/Stinky/Bad/Evil/Dangerous......but we still have every book every written on them from both the "Old World" and the "New", along with all of their bones. COTF, Snarks & Grumpkins, (ROUSes) = Don't be silly, Silly.........but every culture has stories, legends, references to them dating back as far as anyone can remember (Old Nan). Deny, deny, deny....This is Psyops: 101. Say one thing, do another, then accuse your enemy of doing what you just did. The more you muddy the waters the better. After all, the entire point is to cover your trail. Mayhaps, their "Grand Conspiracy" has actually been to try to bring dragons BACK INTO the world in hopes of standing a chance against the WWs. It's their "Manhattan Project"/Necessary evil that will be required to "Fight fire with fire", or "Ice with ice", as it were. "The Song of Ice & Fire" needs both ice and fire, and without dragons, Westeros has a ZERO PERCENT chance against the WWs, so anyone who cares about "the Realm" (i.e. Varys, Tyrion, Marwyn, etc...) would realize that dragons would be their only hope of fighting back. From a narrative standpoint, they have to show up somehow and it's actually less far fetched for the Maesters to simply get the last know eggs into the hands of the last known Targ to achieve best results. Anything less would not have worked as GRRM has confirmed that Dany, and the events of the pyre were "special". Literally no one else could've hatched them, even if they tried all the known Targ tricks. The Maesters are the best candidates to know that a "chosen one(s)"(Jon & Dany) was vital to fulfill "The Prophecy" and to fight back the WWs. All other factions, are just that, factions with an overly narrow view of the coming events. The only group that has no particular religious, political or militaristic interest in one "Team", or another is the Maesters and they really are sworn to "Serve the Realm", even if it means telling a "Nobel Lie" from time to time (see: Plato's "Republic"), or making a "Faustian Bargain" with dragons. Cheers & Tschuss!
I could see the timeline being set up to get the last few needed dragons to hatch by Bran/Bloodraven and I am kinda currently in the head space that the Maesters anti dragon actions are also either allowed or encouraged by Bran because he wants no dragons but these specific ones. I could certainly see a big scheme from the weirwoods to ensure these three eggs were stolen so that later they could end up with Dany while the Maesters are then allowed get to all the other eggs.
This theory is similar to the notion that Rickard had the Southron Ambition to overthrow Aerys or that Littlefinger was deliberately trying to bankrupt Westeros. First we start with a fact that has a fairly trivial explanation. Then we take some consequence that happened and reason that that was the intention all along even if we have no evidence of that: 1. Fact: Littlefinger steals an ungodly amount of money and helps Robert spend even more. Trivial Explanation: Littlefinger likes having an ungodly amount of money and needs to please Robert as long as he is in power. Probably unintended consequence: the realm is destabilized by the crowns debts. Unneeded conspiracy theorie: Littlefinger was planning this all along. 2. Fact: Rickard Stark makes marriage alliances and foster pacts to get close diplomatic ties to powerful lords. Somewhat unusually he focuses on very powerful lords in the south rather than medium powerful lords in the North. Trivial Explanation: Marriage alliances and foster pacts are the norm. Rickard knew these southron lords from the war of the ninepenny kings and the power of the tullies, Arryns and baratheons offset their distance in his opinion. Probably unintended consequence: When Rickard and Brandon get killed by the mad king and Lyanny is presumed kidnapped by Rhaegar, the southron allies of Rickard become the Southron allies of Ned and together they defeat Aerys. Unneccesary conspiracy: Rickard had wanted to overthrow Aerys for years. 3. Fact: Illyrio gives Dany dragon eggs. Trivial explanation: it's a considerate wedding gift that Illyrio can afford and the dragon eggs are presumed unhatchable. Unintended consequence: through arcane and unknown (to Illyrio, probably) blood magic and possibly by being a chosen one to rebirth magic, Dany hatches dragons from the dead eggs. Unneccesary conspiracy: Illyrio wanted to deligitimize two known Targaryans by giving them stolen dragon eggs. Basically, Occam's razor is against this theory, because it's way more specific than what the evidence broadly points to. Illyrio's exact plan is unclear, and changing regularly as well. Young Griff and Vyseris can't both sit the Iron Throne and Illyrio's support for Young Griff is almost certainly more sincere than that for Vyseris. But as near as I can tell Illyrio was just hoping to get some Dothraki to Westeros to weaken the seven kingdoms to allow Young Griff to take over. He needed to please Drogo to achieve this so he gave a generous wedding gift to his wife.
Great video, great theory! But am I the only one confused about how Varys and Illyrio can pull this off since the eggs hatched? Not aware of Blackfyres ever being able to hatch dragons before, so even if they are the stolen eggs the fact that Danny was able to hatch them goes in her favour and is more likely to prove that she’s a Targaryen? Or am I being thick 🤦♀️
When the SHTF and Varys and Illyrio’s plan is exposed I think Dany is going to host a huge BBQ with those two as the guests of honor. The irony of Varys and Illyrio being flambéd by dragons hatched from those eggs they gave Dany is epic.
Easy: the eggs were supposed to be fossilized and incapable of hatching. So basically glorified paperweights. But, extremely expensive and something she would appreciate
I have always felt that GRRM was trying to tell a tale of reconciliation as the main theme of the ASoIaF series. The Prince that was promised is not someone who will show up to defeat the Others. The PtwP is actually a part of the peace treaty or whatever that was agreed to by the last hero and the others to end the last Long Night. The Others are coming back to collect what they were promised. I also have always believed that the Blackfires and the Targaryans are meant to be reconciled. The best way to do this through fAegon and Danny to meet up and get married, or Jon and Danny get married. Or the three of them getting married in true Targaryan family style. I have always believed that Danny is not actually a Targaryan.
Looks like a nice idea. I mean if he could convince the other Lords, that those are blackfyre eggs, that would be a powerful tool. I always asked myself why he did this too and I think, that something like that must be true. The only thing I’m now still asking myself is: What is the Story if she inevitably says that she had got those from ilyrio? Blackfyre is a branch Family therefore all dragons/ eggs had been Targaryen eggs at some point. To say that those are Blackfyre eggs they must be owned for a long time by Blackfyres/ some other strong connection. It would work if Ilyrio always had been a Blackfyre supporter, but he isn’t known for that. So I’m asking myself what’s does this Story look like? I mean one buyer who resells it, isn’t enough by itself because there is no reason a Blackfyre would only sell to another Blackfyre. There is a bias sure, but he could just have needed the money.
Perhaps sending Tyrion, an alleged kinslayer, kingslayer and traitor, into Dany's court, was perhaps another way to paint Daenerys as as a villain. However, what about Barristan? In his own way, Ser Barristan is as much a symbol of royal legitimacy, "Trappings of Power" as Melisandre put it, as any of the Targaryen relics. Another mistake? Or a far more devious calculation?
As a show-watcher not familiar with the book canon other than listening to lots and lots of fan channels (so I don't have to read the books LOL), I never gave this point any thought until this video. I think you're right. That was well laid out and makes total sense. It can't be a simple as some people are saying here, for one reason: I'm pretty sure you don't pimp a preteen girl out to a brutal warlord from an entirely different culture, known for violence and abuse of women, because you're just a practical guy looking to solve ordinary problems. Especially when remarking "I'd be surprised if she even survives out there- ha!"
when the first book was being written, GRRM wanted Jamie to take the throne and for Jon and Arya to fall in love. He definitely did NOT think so far ahead. Stop finding meaning where there is none.
I always just thought he was playing both side so no matter who came out on top he would benefit. I also think they assumed they would never hatch and were essentially just a lot of money which he had no shortage of
I always factored an “if they hatch” plan B into Illyrio’s plan, but it honestly makes way more sense that the eggs hatching was unimaginable to him, and they were 100% intended as a poison pill.
I just think Illyrio was playing double game and waiting for the moment to support the most likely winner... of course, without ever assuming that the eggs would hatch. A help here, a gift there... like a classic GRRM character.
I think illyrio placed danerys into a microclimate within bravos where the geographical features such as elevation, water features and wind blocking buildings so that lemon trees grow.
To be honest I don't think GRRM thought it through that much. I think he was just like "Dany needs dragons, so she gets dragon eggs." And just kinda left it at that. For an in universe lore explanation you could say dragon eggs are kind of a white elephant. A gift that serves no practical purpose, but can cause great danger or frustration for the recipient. Dragon eggs serve no purpose (no one had hatched any in living memory) but are extremely valuable. Making Dany a target for thieves and assassin's who would want to steal the eggs or manipulate her to get them. We kinda see this later when the dragons hatch and everyone and their grandmother is trying to manipulate Dany to get at her dragons.
The Lemon Tree had a graft in it from a Wyrdwood and it was actually Bloodraven Tree-Warging into that lemon tree's original location and then uprooting and Tree-Running over to Danny's window to mess with her head.
Weren’t they planning to marry off Young Griff to Dany though? Then Tyrion simply got in the equation and Young Griff, instead of sailing to Meereen, went straight to Westeros.
I think originally since we know GRRM planned to have no dragons, just telekinetic powers, but did plan for her to find dragon eggs, I assume they were always meant to be fake; just some painted rocks people claimed were dragon eggs. The comet was I think some sort of device that causes Bran’s imagination to will the Others into existence (who were just stories until then), and Dany to will dragons into existence (because of her brother’s abuse insisting they are blood of the dragon), but unknowingly. Then George started to change his mind and make them all real, and got stuck with the current mess.
Its called playing both sides. Whats so hard to understand? Especially knowing Daenerys had more coming here way then young Griff. Its simple math. Daenerys had the better chance of conquering Westeros. Its a simple gesture (the eggs) to equate value of a potential future relationship. To be rewarded later down the line if Daenerys is successful. Illyrio took care of both Daenerys and Viserys, she wont forget that and he keeps himself away from danger. Illyrio is tactical and smart, its why he's rich, he knows a good investment when he sees one.
So, they intended to make there be a public record of the movements of the eggs, so that later, people will realise that Dany is the owner of eggs that are linked to Blackfyres, and assume shes a blackfyre.... This makes no sense because, firstly, they didn't know the dragons would hatch. Imagine Dany and Drogo become powerful Khal and Khaleesi and the dragons never hatched - well, nobody would actually know they owned the eggs. They would simply remain as private possessions, like jewellery or any other treasure. Even if others did know that Dany possessed the eggs, she could just tell the truth and say she got them as a gift. Or, as a powerful khaleesi, she would own treasures from a variety of conquered peoples.
Or people who they intimidate into giving them "gifts". The typing assist tried to make it "gift cards". Now I can't stop thinking about giving the Dothraki Horselords gift cards.
Interesting theory! But I'm not sure I quite understand the implications of it. If the idea is to prevent any future challenger to Aegon, then why not simply just kill Dany and Viserys? Assuming they couldn't simply be killed, why bother trying to preemptively discredit them? Westeros is proven to be a rule-by-might society, and given that Dany/Viserys will eventually militarily clash with Aegon for the Iron Throne, why not just sell the eggs to raise more levies for Aegon?
I wonder if this would make Dany doubt her own identity. It would be difficult, her inconsistent memories could be preyed upon by Illyrio but it’s unlikely that Viserys, who was more conscious than her on account of his age, would be tricked into having a fake sister. Still, it’d be intriguing if at the same time Jon has to wrestle with the idea that he’s a Targaryen that Dany would have to wrestle with the idea that she could not be
I dont think its a plothole because they werent suppose to hatch. I think Illyrio giving them to Dany is a sort of goodbye to the old era of the Dragonlords. Dany wasnt suppose to survive. So the possession of the dragon eggs wouldve been in dorthraki hands and never wouldve hatched, if she survived she wouldve sold them to buy a fleet and sellswords. War is expensive and the dorthraki dont built things so it makes sense. I think people are just thinking hard on this topic when its very simple they were valuable accessories. Like the equivelant of a very expensive custom made rolex watch, looks good on a wealthy powerful man but useless on a begger untill they sell it.
So a slighlty different theory I have is that illyrio and varys underestimated the insanity of viserys and actually wanted to use him to help crown his brother adding an extra layer of legitimacy as the golden company was waiting for viserys to join.
I think it would depend on the paper trail for how he got it. Which I think they will have in line for the eggs. But perhaps this is why Illyrio would still have the sword at his place and not have Aegon running around with it yet... But I forget if he was implied to have given him the sword before he invaded or not. I know he implied having it and wanting to give it to him. Maybe it is best to wait until he is established. In any case even if he has it then Dany having a blackfyre artifact as well might be even more important to make both muddy. I also think they might also end up with the conquerors crown if they can get Doran in the fold with a Marriage and he happens to have it. Definitely some details to work out yet as to how the whole thing will play out and how it was planned originally.
There is one weak point to the theory and that is everyone in the Seven Kingdoms knew that Daenerys and Viserys were the children of the Mad King. If they're going to claim that Daenerys and Viserys were Blackfyres, everyone would want to know exactly what happened to the real Daenerys and Viserys. Also King Robert called a Small Council to deal with the threat of a pregnant Daenerys. There are living witnesses of this. How did they intend to explain away this?
I juat assumed it was to pay for the ships to bring the dothraki army to westeros. the reason for dragon eggs insted of gold or random gems it for illirio to feign ignorance with "It was just a pressent how was i supposed to know they would sell a family hairloom"
Very possible and that is a good cover to tell Dany, but I think GRRM adding those stolen eggs to the world building is him setting up for this reveal.
If Danny's brother did sell the eggs for an army or ships to bring the Dothraki army over, the eggs would magically be stolen / or "somehow" end back in the hands of Illiryo.
Well now we know that visions of danearys bringing back the dragons was prophesied, so she is sorta like a prophetic incubator needed to bring back the dragons
"A risky theory, one might even say desperate" I think Varys and Illyrio base their plans on much more concrete facts rather than an information war. There is next to not certainty an information war would pay off in any way what so ever
Huh, I thought it was pretty obvious from the get go. What better way to curry favor and distract Vis and Dany than by giving Dany what amounts to three rocks. The Summerhall incident would reveal that the Targaryens didn’t know how to hatch them after the dragons died out (pretty sure their existence is necessary for dragons to be born and we saw with each generation less and less hatchlings until all the dragons were gone). Dany doing that blood magic thing sure did torpedo their plans so they now had to make her an ally cuz how the fuck can they battle her when she has giant living flame throwers?
Viserys is well known enough. Dany is known to exist but before the dragons I could see some people doubting her in world because people who read the books also doubt her legitimacy as the Mad King's daughter. From her suspicious conception, to her birth, and sneaking out, and her memories of her childhood. So they have enough reasons to make people doubt her. So then in a world with no photographs and nobody having seen Viserys you suddenly have two blonde people showing up claiming to be Targs and saying the other is a Blackfyre. I see it as very possible to cast doubt and say no clearly this isn't the real Viserys he has blackfyre eggs. It is known that there is a Viserys but nobody has any idea what he is like. Combine this with the pairing them with the Dothraki who people wouldn't like and it is just an all across the board try everything to delegitimize them and make them hated. You will never convince anyone who knows Viserys well at all but 99% of westeros will probably have no context to sort this situation out. So basically make them all confused and like your guy better and you should have support.
@@michaeltalksaboutstuffYeah, sorry I don't really buy either. It's a cool theory, but the whole point of Daenerys' claim is that people know who Daenerys is. Her entire life has been tracked since birth. Her identity and existence was never a secret, as it is the case of Young Griff or even Jon Snow, as Keven Lannister himself points she is a Targaryen whose blood no one question which gives her an upper hand on Young Griff despite being a woman which is something the Captain of the Golden Company even points out when Young Griff decides to go to Westeros without Dany and the marriage pact in place, a decision which is going to bite him in the ass down the road: "The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender." -- A Dance with Dragons - The Lost Lord
Dany existence is very much hidden from the Small folk. King Robert Baretheon was a disaster as a monarch. Last thing King Robert wanted is the knowledge of a potential rival to the Iron Throne.
@@WhitneyAllisonGGNo it's not. "No," said Alleras. "It was Prince Rhaegar's young son Aegon whose head was dashed against the wall by the Lion of Lannister's brave men. We speak of Rhaegar's sister, born on Dragonstone before its fall. The one they called Daenerys." "The Stormborn. I recall her now." Mollander lifted his tankard high, sloshing the cider that remained. "Here's to her!" He gulped, slammed his empty tankard down, belched, and wiped his mouth with the back of his hand. "Where's Rosey? Our rightful queen deserves another round of cider, wouldn't you say?" -- A Feast for Crows - Prologue
"Dragon's eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai. The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty." - words by Illyrio "If he'd known they were like to hatch, he'd would have sat on them himself" - words by Jorah Mormont to Daenerys To Illyrio it was just a very expensive trinket well suitted as a wedding present.
Speculation, but if she dies there and Khal Drogo invades with Viserys for revenge you say "This blackfyre boy killed the real Dany and Viserys I can prove it, Dany is gone and he has Blackfyre Eggs. But no fear brave Aegon and Jon Con are here to save us." I think their plans always involved some amount of chance but in general they wanted them red handed holding those eggs when they came to westeros.
It was more of a gift to Drogo than Danny, the Drogo x Aegon alliance would be cemented via good relations with danny. Two birds one stone. Danny never had intentions to rule, she was forced into the position. So putting this into perspective, the horde would be the main attackers and allow the golden company to lay siege to castles in Westeros. The plan was amazing. The kicker is magic struck and threw everyones plans, even Drogos to the wind. Drogo had a fetish for Valyrian things. He wanted to cement a new Khalasar line with Valyrian lineage which I suspect he had some of to hold such a fixation.
I'm honestly not sure that I buy it, but it would be pretty funny that if these were supposed to be "blackfire" eggs, they actually hatched and produced a dragon with literal black fire.
But everyone knew about and was tracking Daenerys her whole life from birth. Not sure anyone would believe she was a Blackfyre. I think fAegon was just a retcon George had
The question here is this: why Asshai? Jorah is obsessed with getting Danny to Asshai. And then once the eggs hatch Jorah suddenly doesn’t want to go to Asshai. It seems likely that Ilyrio did want the eggs to hatch.
my question is: why would it matter if she were painted as a Targ or Blackfyre? Nobody much younger than Barristan or Blackfish were even around for the last Blackfyre rebellion. and what is it they always say? "a coat of red a coat of gold, a lion still has claws" & then "it was the dragons we bent the knee to" so red or black, at this point any dragon will be seen as a return to form.
I think he made the gifts because she was marrying Drogo. He is the most powerful Khal, so the weeding gift had to be magnificent. And also, he needs to remind Drogo she is a Targaryen, her family once rule over all of westeros, so Drogo need to get that kingdom back for his sons.
I agree. I also wonder now if Drogo was killed because it was an opportune time. Kill Drogo, Viserys is dead and Dany is alone (with three dragon eggs). No one knew the eggs would or could hatch (that was the one anomaly in the whole situation). The easiest thing in the world to do now is kidnap or kill Dany, take the eggs back and leave a clear path for young Griff to the Iron Throne. Or, alternatively, they could marry Dany to Young Griff, which would bolster his claim. Those eggs hatching into dragons threw the whole scheme into disarray. Instead of her being vulnerable, it made her powerful instead.
One egg would have been far more then enouth
Not for Khal Drogo
Illyrio to be fair didn't expect the Dragon Eggs to hatch. The Targaryens didn't have a egg hatch since the Dance of Dragons. So given Dany the Dragon Eggs made perfect sense. After Griff is on the throne and Illyrio would Quietly pocket the Eggs. Now since the Dragon Eggs hatched Illyrio can't prove Dany is a Blackfyre and he is out three Dragon Eggs. I am pretty sure Illyrio had said WTF. What do you mean the eggs hatched. The Young Griff as far as we know doesn't have Dragon Dreams. The Dragons may roast him like Quentin Martell.
Good luck telling this guy he’s over thinking something.
No no no
The children of the forest are disguised as humans you see. 😂. One of the most glaring “I am super smart” (but actually clueless) cases I’ve seen on the internet in a while. It’s really pretty hilarious, I find myself having to keep checking in to see what “insight” he thinks he’s come up with next
@@christopher1367professional hater
@@irasac1 I just call ‘em like I see em my guy
@@christopher1367 the classic "it's just the truth" excuse to be an asshole huh
@@irasac1 truth hurts
Cool theory, but I genuinely think people are overthinking this.
Illyrio gave Dany the eggs because he wanted to give a Targaryen princess a good wedding gift. A dragon hasn't hatched from an egg in over a century, and a healthy one hasn't hatched since even before that. The last time dragon eggs were tried to hatch, people died.
He didn't give them to Aegon because Aegon isn't ruling because of his bloodline. Like Stannis, he will rule because he should rule. Giving Aegon the eggs would go back on all the training they have given him and put him in unnecessary danger.
Illyrio is also rich. He has no need to more valuable things. Dany is just a pawn. Viserys was always the real player because he was a Man and had a direct claim to the throne. Dany was just a vehicle for Viserys to use to get the throne.
When the eggs hatch, Viserys dies, and Dany lives, Illyrio sends 3 ships full of goods to Dany. He wanted Dany to sail back and marry Aegon. Dany went from a pawn being sacrificed to an actual player and Illyrio acknowledges that.
Dany, of course, sold the stuff and bought the Unsullied and began taking cities.
Plans changed, Aegon and Jon Con are called back then sent to Dany. If she won't come to them, they will go to her.
It's much more likely that all 3 targaryens are legitimate and that Illyrio just didn't plan on the eggs being useful or Dany being important.
So, what is Illyrio's master plan? Surely, there is a massive web on conspiracies, right? Maybe it's not. He wanted Viserys on the throne, but because of his childhood, had become unstable and would make a bad king. The most powerful Khal needs a wife, Viserys needs an army, Dany is unmarried. Illyrio can let the unstable Viserys try in vain to lead the Dothraki to Westeros while Aegon continues training until its time to strike.
He gives Dany dragon eggs to show his support for Viserys and to please Drogo, thinking the eggs were useless for his cause.
Dany lives, and her eggs hatch. Illyrio sees value in that and sends 3 ships to bring her back to marry Aegon. Dany refuses and uses the ships to conquer 3 cities. She stays in Mereen, so instead of waiting, Illyrio sends Aegon to her.
The Golden Company, The Unsullied, and 3 growing dragons would instantly reclaim the throne.
This just makes sense. There is no potential plot holes or need for elaborate conspiracies about Blackfyres.
I think you and others overestimate Illyrio's wealth. If Illyrio was so wealthy he could throw dragon eggs away, he could just hire faceless assassins to kill anybody he wanted to further his plot.
@@Vmac1394 It is implied that it isn't just money that the Faceless Men take for an assassination. They want something that has real value to the person paying (and likely real value for them). A true sacrifice proportional to the wealth of the person who is hiring them. I don't think anyone can afford their services for long.
@Vmac1394 Who would they have assassinated? Which people are that important that only a faceless man could kill them?
Cercei and Joffrey are and were making Westeros weaker, so why would Illyrio order them dead? A narcissistic Queen and her incest bastard son as King fits perfectly into the plan of installing a new King.
Also, we would never know if he hired a faceless man. The only reason we know about them is because Arya is with them and Euron brags about it.
Agreed. I think Illyrio also thought he can get the eggs back from Dany before she left for Westeros. Because Drogo was only supposed to take Dany to Dosh Khaleen then go back to Pentos to get on ships to Westeros. It's why Viserys going with Dany was a change in plans- he was supposed to wait with Illyrio but worried Drogo wouldn't come back.
He probably was going to "hold onto them" for Dany while she invaded to get his money back, so to say.
fAegon doesn't need to pretend Dany is a Blackfyre for him to seem more legitimate. The leaders of Westeros already know Dany exists (& that her and Viserys survived), but everyone thinks Aegon is dead, so even with a crown story why would people believe both that the real Aegon is actually alive AND that while Dany and V are alive, these two are NOT them. It's a lot to believe and the best lies are as simple as possible. The people don't care about Targ legitimacy at this point. They care that an invader came, killed a bunch of people with a foreign army (bad) and then someone else came and saved them (good). Even without either being a Targ it may work. But passing a Blackfyre child off as a Targ that was "good" gives extra legitimacy to fAegon's claim.
Also, I think everyone overlooks & thinks too much about the lemon tree in Bravos memory. It's not said that lemon trees physically can't grow in Bravos, just that it's difficult and very expensive. So it's a hint that they were living in the palace of the Sea Lord- that's it.
I took Ageon being a play on how it the real world children of monarchy would got killed years later impersonators showing up claiming to have survived and are so and so.
It's like giving someone a scratch off ticket as a gift. You don't expect them to win anything. But you still needed to get them something and it was all they had at the gas station.
😂😂😂😂
If you gave them a couple million worth of tickets maybe.
There are obvious problems with this theory: Viserys and Daenerys are publicly known to be the children of Aerys and Rhaella. Robert knows about them and discusses them with his Small Council in the first book. Second, the Blackfyres are publicly believed to have gone extinct when Maelys the Monstrous was killed. He was the last Blackfyre pretender, and as far as everyone knows, there are no more Blackfyres. The whole world knows that Rhaella had a daughter who would be Daenerys' age, and the whole world believes that the Blackfyres don't exist anymore, but they are going to convince people that Daenerys is a Blackfyre, because she has dragon eggs and because she remembers a house with a red door and a lemon tree? And then they would be assuming that anyone who wants the Targaryens back would not be just as satisfied with a Blackfyre. Tyrion makes the point that Young Griff should seek the support of the Golden Company because, at this point, they would be just as happy to support a Targaryen claimant as a Blackfyre. The whole idea just doesn't work.
i think it's more "woman shows up claiming to be Daenerys with an absolutely insane story to explain everything"
Illyrio and Varys: ORRRRR you're full of shit and here's why
Why would anyone be listening to Illyrio? Or Varys, for that matter? And what, they will think she's a Blackfyre because she will tell them about a childhood memory of a lemon tree, and they will say, wait a minute, there are no lemon trees in Braavos except in the garden of the Sea Lord, and if she has an inaccurate memory from early childhood, she cannot possibly be who she says she is? They won't think that way. Nobody would think that way. She is the right age and sex to be Aerys and Rhaella's daughter, and she clearly looks like a Targaryen, and probably resembles her parents specifically. And she'll have an army with her. That's as far as anyone will consider the issue. @@TheCreepyLantern
@@redrackham6812the more you examine the more it looks like what it is a theory without the least substance to back it up.
I hope George RR Martin sees to what extent the absence of Winds of Winter is driving the fans
Thank you for pointing all this out. I agree with IDG’s theory. People read to much into the lemon tree. We know of Braavos climate from Arya’s chapter. By the time she makes it there it’s already fall/beginning of winter. Dany lived there during the longest summer in living memory. It would’ve had a different climate at that point. If the Starks can grow winter roses in a greenhouse, why can’t the sealord grow a lemon tree?
If viserys lives in this timeline he’s even more proof they’re Targaryens. He was seen and met by lords and ladies of the realm, ser barriston remembers his personality as well. And viserys would confirm Dany is his sister
You would think that with their line being basically extinct they would decide that blackfyres are targaryen enough for inbreeding and just set aside old quarrels.
Ahh but you see Old feuds are stronger than logic
ie brackens and blackwoods
WEren't the Blackfyres gone by then?
@@9and7the major rebellions have ended but young griff MIGHT be a blackfyre (there’s also a theory that says that since he has black hair he is the son of Elia and Rhaegar)
@@maanyashukla326@maanyashukla326 The male line of the Blackfyres is gone, but what about the female line? There is a theory that Illyrio's late wife was a Blackfyre and possibly Varys' sister or relative, and Young Griff/Aegon is actually her son with Illyrio.
It’s a cool theory and way to explain it but the Baratheon throne knew of and kept track of Dany and Visery as legitimate children of Aerys for decades, there was no mistaking them otherwise. They even sent Sorrowful men assassins.
Meanwhile Young Aegon was meant to invade at the head of the Golden Company, you know, the mercenary company set up by Blackfyres, and who have repeatedly invaded Westeros in the name of the Blackfyres. And he will be wielding the sword Blackfyre.
To be fair it's mostly Varys who keeps them updated and arranges those assassination. But yeah I think it would be asking a lot even for Varys to do a complete u-turn and say Daenerys was a Blackfyre, but maybe he would just offer it as propaganda for those in Westeros who would rather have Aegon on the throne. I think the real reason Varys gives those eggs away is because he hates and fears magic. In that draft copy it says Maelys the Monstrous gave his son to the fire to hatch the Blackfyre eggs. Varys wants them as far away from Aegon as possible. Trying to hatch a dragon has killed plenty of Targs before. Maybe he thought Dany or Viserys would die a similar death.
I was thinking the exact same thing.
One thing further. The Golden Company consists predominantly of members who are from Houses who actively supported and fought for House Blackfyre.
This theory tracks with Quaithe's numerous reminders to Dany about remembering who she is; her emphasis on Dany proving some lie about a cloth dragon; not trusting a perfumed seneschal...wow! What an awesome video. Nice job.
Wouldn't the Golden Company fighting for Young Griff pose an issue? Aren't they pretty well-known to be a Blackfyre outfit?
Yeah I see the Blackfyre suspicion on Young Griff as all the more reason to muddy the waters. If your political candidate has a scandal you better find a few scandals on the other side to make it a both sides thing so people can just pick whoever they like best (in this case the one not pillaging them with Dothraki)
@@michaeltalksaboutstuff it would be a galaxy-brain chess move to have GC fight for Dany but “probably” not a great plan if your intention is to come in and wipe out her forces. Which is too bad because there’s blurbs about Viserys meeting GC brass which could have paid off nicely
Not in the modern time. They just want a competent leader to take them home. Viserys was not competent hence why he wasn't supported
Why does Jorah want to get Dany to go to Asshai?
@@lxfj2128Some contracts are written in gold, while others in blood!
Nice video, one counter-point to the theory that rumor is spread that Denny is Blackfyre, is that Robert and the small council already know who Danny and Vyseris are, so trying to start such rumor so later on is kinda impractical, no one would believe.
I just like to point out that trees don't grow in Braavos except the garden of the mighty. Also, the Sealord of Braavos stood witness when the marriage pact between Viserys and Arianne was being made. So it's rather likely that Dany at one point in time stayed at the garden of mighty if not the at the Sealords Palace itself.
That's something else I don't understand.
The Braavosi were descendants of the slaves of Ancient Valyrian slavers and in recent history they clashed with the Targaryens on multiple occasions.
The Braavosi lent ships to House Arryn to fight off Aegon the Conqueror and they almost went to war with Jaehaerys the First over the dragon eggs.
Given their history, _can anyone tell me why the _*_FUCK_*_ would the Braavosi be part of any plot to restore the Targaryens to the Iron Throne?!!!_
It straight up dont make any sense!
Targaryens aren't slavers. They never have been. Braavos has no reason to oppose them. Neither do the Faceless Men, which is why they never killed Dany even when she hatched dragons.
@@DavidLightbringer The Targaryens _were_ slavers. All of the Valyrian families were.
There is a quote somewhere that Aenar Targaryen fled Valyria with his family dragons wealth and slaves.
So they definitely brought slaves with them on Dragonstone.
Also right now there is a Faceless Assassin in Oldtown who infiltrated the Citadel and is looking for a book called _'The Death of Dragons'_
That's suggestive yes?
I also believe the theory that it was they and the masters who caused the Doom of Valyria in the first place.
@@gerardjagroo they weren't slavers after conquering westeros and dragons were extinct, so they didn't pose a threat to braavos.
faceless men and braavosi aren't the same
I think you're making it a little too complicated. Illyrio knows exactly who and what Viserys is. Remember, a gift to Danny was actually a gift to Drogo. Those eggs were a lure to ensure Viserys did something stupid, and got himself killed. (you know he convinced Viserys he should keep an eye on his investment) He was never worried about Danny rising to power. She was a submissive child. He didn't expect her to survive, much less thrive, among the Hoard. But even if she did, she was married to a "savage" who would never cross the "poison water" - leaving the way clear for Young Griff. THAT was worth the price of those eggs, which he could probably recover at a later date, since they had no value to the Dothraki.
I actually agree with this 💯 percent it makes sense for him too kind of sell the Targaryens too some dothraki savages and they would probably die out there, leaving no living legitimate Targaryens who claims aren't dubious like faegon and would pay anyone too get them back once they were dead he truly didn't think those eggs would hatch.
having dany married to khal drogo also made it more likely for robert to send assassins after her
But the whole point of the attempted poisoning of Dany was to bring Drogo to Westeros. Before the poisoning, Illyrio says to Varys he needs more time, but Varys says it’s not possible. The poisoning was supposed to be the perfect acceleration for Drogo coming to Westeros. I’m not even sure if Dany was supposed to survive, or if that was Jorah intervening
I have to say I love it! I think that Illyrio and Varys's gaslighting Dany as a black fire could be a big reveal of winds of winter for her plot !
Yea it would be such a fun thing on the route to making her either go mad or appear mad from the POV of the small folk based on what she does
@@michaeltalksaboutstuff I mean, if you think about ways to drive people. Crazy insane gas lighting is definitely up there
I love how things are still coming together in the community.
Okay, please address this. Really seal things off for me. If they are working to discredit her, why tell Robert that Vaserys and Danerys are plotting over the sea? Why not present it as "some people CLAIMING to be Vaserys and Danerys"?
Robert is dead so it doesn't matter. Robert was never going to survive with their plan to point it out.
@@harryknapper1133 If they're trying to build a narrative that they are Targaryen pretenders... why tell Robert they are real? With his hate for Targaryens, he would have probably sent assassins anyway, and he would have spread it to anyone who would hear it. Doesn't matter if he survives or not. Seems like in Westeros, if you want a lie to be believed, you get a king to say it.
He plan was to use the Dothraki to put Viserys on the throne. No one knew Drogo would kill him.
Viserys had no defenders. He had no money. He & Dany were freeloading off of Illyrio. If he wanted to get rid of them and put Griffin on the throne, why not just kill them?
I think he was playing both sides because he doesn't know which one of them will make it all the way to the throne.
Watch the video
Because at the start of the story Westos would not be welcoming to any Targaryen Monarch be it Viserys, Dany or Griffin.
While I disagree that the eggs where an attempt to frame Viserys and Dany as blackfyres (the gift and marriage where way too known for that to actually work)
The idea that Illyrio is attempting to create a hated enemy to be slain in order for a Targaryen Monarch to become viewed as a welcome savior and not the mad King 2.0 is completely reasonable.
As is the idea that he was setting Viserys up to be that enemy.
"Shut up it was a good plan" XD
Nah. Too many people, key players both dead and alive, were keeping track of Dany and knew she wasn't a Blackfyre. That kills the theory for me right there.
Good point.
Many characters in the whole Saga with illegitimate claims stayed in power even tho people were keeping track of them and most people knowing that they are illegitimate.
Like each one of Cersei's incest brats who rule as Fake Baratheons / Pretenders would be the most prominent ones I guess. Usually in the whole Saga it's like people with legitimate claims or illegitimate claims just do what they want to do, no matter if the 'plebs' or any people with less power believe or support their story.
If you think about it, the whole Saga is about how legitimate Kings or rulers mess up pretty much everything for their own good. It would be consequential to put a competent young Pretender who is perfectly educated and trained for being a great leader on the Iron Throne, especially after several Pretenders couldn't properly rule over a dozen pigs.
Framing Dany (or before that, Viserys) to be a pretender while putting a (potential) pretender on the Throne would be a genius move and some insane thing to pull off but it wouldn't be the first time something like this was executed with or without success in the World of aSoIaF.
Isn't this one of the greatest lessons of the Saga, that it doesn't matter if people know you are a lier / pretender / illegitimate if you just have enough power (support from many houses, priests, money / gold)? Afaik there are even several amazing dialogues in the books about exactly this.
Through all the young Griffin sections, I keep thinking how when the rest of Westros meets fAegon, with Blackfyre in his hand, and the gold company with him, they are going to notice it's a Blackfyre invasion. The Blackfyre eggs are only in the early drafts, and not in the main stories, which suggests GRRM probably dropped the idea.
Framing Dany as a Blackfyre is a very interesting idea, but with fAegon turning up with the Blackfyre's Company and the sword, I just don't get how anyone could mistake fAegon as anything other than a Blackfyre himself.
I think the important part is that most people won't care. His opponents will talk about him being a blackfyre, but his allies will just never acknowledge the possibility, because it doesn't really matter when they can be on the winning side.
Tyrion: How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?
Illyrio: Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre. And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.[6]
-Tyrion Lannister and Illyrio Mopatis
Was Young Griff a late addition? Perhaps. My recollection of book 1 and the Varys plan came from Arya overhearing them talking about Stark and Lannister fighting too early (for the Targ invasion). Perfectly plausible that their plan was to support Viserys however the narrative kills him so Dany inherits the narrative claim at that point.
However enough room to grow Young Griff into the narrative later. Particularly with the growth in the number of books.
If you think Young Griff was just made up wait until you find out about Older Griff
The Dragon eggs to Dany when thinking a bit more about motivations of Varys (supporting Griff or Dany) was a cash bung to ensure/ease invasion whether to put Viserys on throne or, with revisions, fAegon.
No, Dani and her brother were documented targaryans they were known enough for Robert to hire assassins. How does that translate to backfires?
Also he forgot faegon is returning to westeros with the golden company who are known as a blackfyre supporting army of sellswords
Yeah this seems to be a very convoluted plan and theory. I don't have a great answer as to why she got the eggs, but would bet it was pre-arranged when the tragaryans left bravos and illyrio is simply taking credit for something he was bound to do through diplomacy. If he really wanted them to be caught as blackfyres why would the plan have been for young Griff to meet up with them. I think it's more likely that the dragon has 3 heads and aegon, viscerys and Dany were meant to conquer westerns together bringing legitimacy to aegon rather than that they were meant to fight one another. Would have been much easier to undermine the legitimacy simply by letting vicerys ruin everything and letting him whore out Dany in his desperation to survive, while aegon gets the eggs, the army and the legitimacy. There is no way that the golden company could take westeros before littlefinger destabilized the empire independent of varys and illyrio. So having the golden company to occupy and seige with a dothraki raiding force as vanguard would be necessary if westeros wasn't completely fractured
Except that hundreds of people, and the better part of the nobs of Pentos all witnessed Illyrio GIVE the eggs to Danny as a wedding present.
Great theory! One of the issues I have with it though is that if the Golden Company is part of (F)aegon’s army, wouldn’t it give away that he is a Blackfyre and not Dany?
Tyrion: How did you convince the Golden Company to take up the cause of our sweet queen when they have spent so much of their history fighting against the Targaryens?
Illyrio: Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre. And Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home.[6]
-Tyrion Lannister and Illyrio Mopatis
No living person had seen a dragon and they figured they were just petrified eggs.
I think we really need to keep the diegetic and extradiegetic arguments separate. There is no way that GRRM had already planned out the Young Griff plotline at the time he wrote the first outline to Daenerys' storyline for A Game of Thrones, because a version of Dany's first chapter was actually published _before_ A Game of Thrones, and back in that time, GRRM's outline for the series as a whole was still absolutely wild. Even at the time of AGoT's release, the series was still planned to be a trilogy. Not to mention that this kind of planning of storylines literally a decade in advance is just not how "Gardening" works. I'm 99% confident that there was no concept of Young Griff in GRRM's mind when he conceptualized Dany's story arc in AGoT. That's not helping us to figure out what goes on with Varys and Illyrio in-universe in the current version of the story, but it does help us to weed out arguments and motivations in theory-crafting that are fallacious from the onset - like somehow fitting Young Griff into the _original_ version of Varys' and Illyrio's plan. We have to recognize that every attempt to make him fit into their plans, whether it's done by GRRM or by us, is a _retroactive_ attempt, i. e. a "retcon" or at least retroactive reinterpretation to at least some extent. This is simply something unavoidable when you use this kind of writing style.
This 100%, only little nitpick I have is the whole trilogy plan, George may have wanted that in the earliest stages of writing AGoT, but I think he knew it simply wasn't possible by the time AGoT released.
Since he'd likely have some of ACoK written or thought through already, he'd have to know by that point there was no way he could end the War of the Five Kings, have the Long Night start and end AND have Dany finish her Essos plot and get to Westeros in just those two books. Ofc I don't think he expected to get himself side-tracked with AFFC and ADWD either, and he's clearly having a hard time getting back on track in general not to mention with the additional plot lines and characters from the 'diversions' that were AFFC/ADWD.
Thank you for this video, I been asking myself about this for sooo long
Nobody expected the dragons to hatch.
Great breakdown! Thanks for making the video.
The fact that those eggs are valuable enough to buy ships and an army alone, but he just gives them to Dany, adds more creedence to this theory.
Nice vid.....but The Joker said it best "nobody panics when things go according to plan. Even if the plan is horrifying."
We all wanna think the writers have things figured out and all of this will make sense by the end. When in reality the truth is probably "Young Griff" was never thought of before his intro into the books.
Which could also explain why DnD cut him out all togther. He was a twist for the sake of a twist
Brilliant! I truly look forward to every new upload from you!
i dont think it makes sense to suppose that theyre trying to frame Dany as a Blackfyre when it seems clear Illyrio has sent the sword Blackfyre (which disappeared with the Blackfyres) to fAegon in one of the chests. The eggs, however, speak of Targaryen legitimacy. And Westeros doesnt care about Blackfyre vs. Targaryen, really, especially now. The lemon tree memory isnt anything that can be used against her - like how would that work? Its just a fuzzy memory of hers. Also, fruit treees are grown in yhe gardens of the wealthy in Braavos, and lemon trees absolutely grow in other than tropical climates. I grew them in San Francisco.
Plus, this whole elaborate and highly speculative theory is not needed - it makes sense that Illyrio wants to use Dany and Viserys and Drogo as the bad cop and fAegon, his son, as the good cop.
Whats this about stolen Blackfyre eggs? Nobody thinks the Blackfyres have eggs. This theory doesnt hold water imo
So I will likely do a follow up video to this theory eventually. I could have presented some parts better and there are a lot of good points in a lot of comments and these are some good ones. I probably made it sound like a bigger part of the plan when really if true it was a small side detail to Illyrio and Varys. (It was the main point of my video, but a small part of their plan)
The Blackfyre eggs were a thing mentioned in an old unused draft found in the Cushing library. I was going into speculation suggesting he may still include this in a bit of world building. He could reveal later that those eggs were purchased or linked to the Blackfyres in some way.
The point of framing her as holding known Blackfyre artifacts would basically just be a bit of dirty politics and giving people a chance to see what they want to see, which seems very Varys and Illyrio.
I agree with the main idea being going good cop bad cop with Dany vs Aegon. The framing they will be doing in that case is not unlike an election, trying to get everyone to support the side the want. Imagine it like you are about to go into an election and know your candidate has cheated on their spouse. Then you have the option to plant a story that credibly makes it look like the other candidate did the same thing. In this case you know your guy is going to be running around with Blackfyre artifacts so you give the other side some too. (in theory, again only holds up if the eggs end up being known to be that or Varys could produce some paper trail from the iron bank showing it)
It wouldn't matter to most, but to those who would side with Dany if they thought she was legit and Aegon wasn't, it gives them enough reason to doubt and an excuse to side with Aegon. It would be a play for the super Targ loyalists to muddy the waters if they see Aegon with his known Blackfyre stuff. Sort of like even if only 10% of the voters will care about a scandal, it's still nicer for you if both sides have the same scandal.
Illyrio wants to give his boy some Blackfyre stuff and have some cover, so he gives some Blackfyre stuff to the only other option people will have. Now it's no longer a knock on Aegon. And no one in Westeros has seen any of these blonde kids with their own eyes anyway so they will all just be showing up equally claiming to be Targs and looking kinda like them but holding some Blackfyre things. People get to choose the one they like with no guilt if it's all even. And thanks to the good cop bad cop that will lead to a guilt free Aegon sweep of even the most Blackfyre hating people.
Basically it just always seems so weird to me that he wouldn't give the symbol of legitimacy to Aegon. So with him having the idea of a Blackfyre clutch of eggs in his mind, maybe it will be revealed to have been a symbol of illegitimacy the whole time.
Agreed it is some hard core speculation using only bread crumbs and might not ever be needed. But to me would feel a little cooler than the idea he just gave her the valuable symbols of legitimacy he could have given to Aegon.
I'm not convinced Young Griff was even an idea when he was originally writing AGOT. lol
This is a really cool theory that falls apart the second you remember that Robert's council knew who Dany and Viserys were and had been tracking them since they fled Westeros.
I'm glad our community exists, it's been years since the series and the books likely never coming we are still talking to them
I would look to motive. Who stands to gain/lose when/if dragons are actually hatched (i.e. the best/worst case scenario, depending on one's perspective)? If they never hatch. Nothing changes and it was just a pricey test. However, if you know/believe that "Winter is Coming"(The Prophecy/Long Night), then you know you need something to fight it, and there is nothing that can compete against WWs, other than dragons.
Only "True Targs" can hatch dragons, but even then, there are no guarantees, so giving eggs to anyone has always been a bit of a gamble, or a "Hail Mary" of sorts, in this case. That being said, if someone really wanted/"needed" dragons Dany & Viz were, by far their "Last best hope" to hatch them, so they made sure they got the eggs, one way or the other.
Not very many folks know about Dragons, WWs, Long Night, The Wall, Fire Magic, Astronomy, The changing of the Seasons, "The Prophecy", have an information network throughout the known world, et. al., and how they may all be related. Indeed, there is really only one group in Westeros that would know about such a wide range of related sacred and secular issues without allegiance to any one particular "Faith", while also having access to the texts, money and political connections to see that Dany gets the eggs.......Our humble servants THE MAESTERS ;)
Pulling the "Ol' Switch-a-Roo" is nothing new for them (Paging "poor" Dr. Pycelle ;) ). Magic = Fake.....but every Maester has to spend a "Long Night" with a Glass Candle and Marwyn proves it can happen and is making a B-Line for Dany and the Dragons right now. Living Dragons = Long Gone/Stinky/Bad/Evil/Dangerous......but we still have every book every written on them from both the "Old World" and the "New", along with all of their bones. COTF, Snarks & Grumpkins, (ROUSes) = Don't be silly, Silly.........but every culture has stories, legends, references to them dating back as far as anyone can remember (Old Nan).
Deny, deny, deny....This is Psyops: 101. Say one thing, do another, then accuse your enemy of doing what you just did. The more you muddy the waters the better. After all, the entire point is to cover your trail.
Mayhaps, their "Grand Conspiracy" has actually been to try to bring dragons BACK INTO the world in hopes of standing a chance against the WWs. It's their "Manhattan Project"/Necessary evil that will be required to "Fight fire with fire", or "Ice with ice", as it were.
"The Song of Ice & Fire" needs both ice and fire, and without dragons, Westeros has a ZERO PERCENT chance against the WWs, so anyone who cares about "the Realm" (i.e. Varys, Tyrion, Marwyn, etc...) would realize that dragons would be their only hope of fighting back.
From a narrative standpoint, they have to show up somehow and it's actually less far fetched for the Maesters to simply get the last know eggs into the hands of the last known Targ to achieve best results. Anything less would not have worked as GRRM has confirmed that Dany, and the events of the pyre were "special". Literally no one else could've hatched them, even if they tried all the known Targ tricks.
The Maesters are the best candidates to know that a "chosen one(s)"(Jon & Dany) was vital to fulfill "The Prophecy" and to fight back the WWs. All other factions, are just that, factions with an overly narrow view of the coming events. The only group that has no particular religious, political or militaristic interest in one "Team", or another is the Maesters and they really are sworn to "Serve the Realm", even if it means telling a "Nobel Lie" from time to time (see: Plato's "Republic"), or making a "Faustian Bargain" with dragons.
Cheers & Tschuss!
I could see the timeline being set up to get the last few needed dragons to hatch by Bran/Bloodraven and I am kinda currently in the head space that the Maesters anti dragon actions are also either allowed or encouraged by Bran because he wants no dragons but these specific ones. I could certainly see a big scheme from the weirwoods to ensure these three eggs were stolen so that later they could end up with Dany while the Maesters are then allowed get to all the other eggs.
This theory is similar to the notion that Rickard had the Southron Ambition to overthrow Aerys or that Littlefinger was deliberately trying to bankrupt Westeros.
First we start with a fact that has a fairly trivial explanation. Then we take some consequence that happened and reason that that was the intention all along even if we have no evidence of that:
1. Fact: Littlefinger steals an ungodly amount of money and helps Robert spend even more.
Trivial Explanation: Littlefinger likes having an ungodly amount of money and needs to please Robert as long as he is in power.
Probably unintended consequence: the realm is destabilized by the crowns debts.
Unneeded conspiracy theorie: Littlefinger was planning this all along.
2. Fact: Rickard Stark makes marriage alliances and foster pacts to get close diplomatic ties to powerful lords. Somewhat unusually he focuses on very powerful lords in the south rather than medium powerful lords in the North.
Trivial Explanation: Marriage alliances and foster pacts are the norm. Rickard knew these southron lords from the war of the ninepenny kings and the power of the tullies, Arryns and baratheons offset their distance in his opinion.
Probably unintended consequence: When Rickard and Brandon get killed by the mad king and Lyanny is presumed kidnapped by Rhaegar, the southron allies of Rickard become the Southron allies of Ned and together they defeat Aerys.
Unneccesary conspiracy: Rickard had wanted to overthrow Aerys for years.
3. Fact: Illyrio gives Dany dragon eggs.
Trivial explanation: it's a considerate wedding gift that Illyrio can afford and the dragon eggs are presumed unhatchable.
Unintended consequence: through arcane and unknown (to Illyrio, probably) blood magic and possibly by being a chosen one to rebirth magic, Dany hatches dragons from the dead eggs.
Unneccesary conspiracy: Illyrio wanted to deligitimize two known Targaryans by giving them stolen dragon eggs.
Basically, Occam's razor is against this theory, because it's way more specific than what the evidence broadly points to. Illyrio's exact plan is unclear, and changing regularly as well. Young Griff and Vyseris can't both sit the Iron Throne and Illyrio's support for Young Griff is almost certainly more sincere than that for Vyseris. But as near as I can tell Illyrio was just hoping to get some Dothraki to Westeros to weaken the seven kingdoms to allow Young Griff to take over. He needed to please Drogo to achieve this so he gave a generous wedding gift to his wife.
He didn’t think they’d hatch and he wanted to give her a gift that would make her feel obliged to work with him when she took over Westeros.
Great video, great theory! But am I the only one confused about how Varys and Illyrio can pull this off since the eggs hatched? Not aware of Blackfyres ever being able to hatch dragons before, so even if they are the stolen eggs the fact that Danny was able to hatch them goes in her favour and is more likely to prove that she’s a Targaryen? Or am I being thick 🤦♀️
The eggs hatching is the "backfire" part of the Blackfyre Backfire Theory
This is a fascinating theory! Also lends some weight to the whole 'Dany going mad' potential storyline, because honestly.....yeah, that would do it.
When the SHTF and Varys and Illyrio’s plan is exposed I think Dany is going to host a huge BBQ with those two as the guests of honor.
The irony of Varys and Illyrio being flambéd by dragons hatched from those eggs they gave Dany is epic.
YESSSSSS!!!!!
Easy: the eggs were supposed to be fossilized and incapable of hatching. So basically glorified paperweights. But, extremely expensive and something she would appreciate
I have always felt that GRRM was trying to tell a tale of reconciliation as the main theme of the ASoIaF series. The Prince that was promised is not someone who will show up to defeat the Others. The PtwP is actually a part of the peace treaty or whatever that was agreed to by the last hero and the others to end the last Long Night. The Others are coming back to collect what they were promised.
I also have always believed that the Blackfires and the Targaryans are meant to be reconciled. The best way to do this through fAegon and Danny to meet up and get married, or Jon and Danny get married. Or the three of them getting married in true Targaryan family style.
I have always believed that Danny is not actually a Targaryan.
I'm not 100% sold on this theory... but so far it is probably one of the best I've heard in a really long time. Plus it actually makes sense
Looks like a nice idea. I mean if he could convince the other Lords, that those are blackfyre eggs, that would be a powerful tool. I always asked myself why he did this too and I think, that something like that must be true.
The only thing I’m now still asking myself is: What is the Story if she inevitably says that she had got those from ilyrio? Blackfyre is a branch Family therefore all dragons/ eggs had been Targaryen eggs at some point. To say that those are Blackfyre eggs they must be owned for a long time by Blackfyres/ some other strong connection. It would work if Ilyrio always had been a Blackfyre supporter, but he isn’t known for that. So I’m asking myself what’s does this Story look like? I mean one buyer who resells it, isn’t enough by itself because there is no reason a Blackfyre would only sell to another Blackfyre. There is a bias sure, but he could just have needed the money.
Perhaps sending Tyrion, an alleged kinslayer, kingslayer and traitor, into Dany's court, was perhaps another way to paint Daenerys as as a villain. However, what about Barristan? In his own way, Ser Barristan is as much a symbol of royal legitimacy, "Trappings of Power" as Melisandre put it, as any of the Targaryen relics. Another mistake? Or a far more devious calculation?
Wow, great theory! It brings the slayer of lies quote to another and more fitting level.
Another great video.
This is such a good question, gonna buckle in
As a show-watcher not familiar with the book canon other than listening to lots and lots of fan channels (so I don't have to read the books LOL), I never gave this point any thought until this video. I think you're right. That was well laid out and makes total sense. It can't be a simple as some people are saying here, for one reason: I'm pretty sure you don't pimp a preteen girl out to a brutal warlord from an entirely different culture, known for violence and abuse of women, because you're just a practical guy looking to solve ordinary problems. Especially when remarking "I'd be surprised if she even survives out there- ha!"
This sounds like the Dornish Master Plan... a bit too much Overthinking... but thanks for the video.
Because he thought the eggs were dead and petrified. They're basically just glorified paper weights at this point 😂
when the first book was being written, GRRM wanted Jamie to take the throne and for Jon and Arya to fall in love. He definitely did NOT think so far ahead. Stop finding meaning where there is none.
I always just thought he was playing both side so no matter who came out on top he would benefit. I also think they assumed they would never hatch and were essentially just a lot of money which he had no shortage of
I like the stuff this guy talks about.
I always factored an “if they hatch” plan B into Illyrio’s plan, but it honestly makes way more sense that the eggs hatching was unimaginable to him, and they were 100% intended as a poison pill.
interesting nerd club mentioned!!
I just think Illyrio was playing double game and waiting for the moment to support the most likely winner... of course, without ever assuming that the eggs would hatch. A help here, a gift there... like a classic GRRM character.
Best theory so far. I just figured he gave her the eggs to gain favor with her and the horse lord's.
Would love to see a Michael Talks About Stuff livestream.
I think illyrio placed danerys into a microclimate within bravos where the geographical features such as elevation, water features and wind blocking buildings so that lemon trees grow.
Yes yes yes more amazing theory. Thank you!
To be honest I don't think GRRM thought it through that much. I think he was just like "Dany needs dragons, so she gets dragon eggs." And just kinda left it at that.
For an in universe lore explanation you could say dragon eggs are kind of a white elephant. A gift that serves no practical purpose, but can cause great danger or frustration for the recipient.
Dragon eggs serve no purpose (no one had hatched any in living memory) but are extremely valuable. Making Dany a target for thieves and assassin's who would want to steal the eggs or manipulate her to get them. We kinda see this later when the dragons hatch and everyone and their grandmother is trying to manipulate Dany to get at her dragons.
That sounds plausible. I always assumed it was for Drogo's sake as a way to pay him off for not sacking Pentose.
The Lemon Tree had a graft in it from a Wyrdwood and it was actually Bloodraven Tree-Warging into that lemon tree's original location and then uprooting and Tree-Running over to Danny's window to mess with her head.
Weren’t they planning to marry off Young Griff to Dany though? Then Tyrion simply got in the equation and Young Griff, instead of sailing to Meereen, went straight to Westeros.
Awesome thoughts
I think originally since we know GRRM planned to have no dragons, just telekinetic powers, but did plan for her to find dragon eggs, I assume they were always meant to be fake; just some painted rocks people claimed were dragon eggs. The comet was I think some sort of device that causes Bran’s imagination to will the Others into existence (who were just stories until then), and Dany to will dragons into existence (because of her brother’s abuse insisting they are blood of the dragon), but unknowingly. Then George started to change his mind and make them all real, and got stuck with the current mess.
Its called playing both sides. Whats so hard to understand?
Especially knowing Daenerys had more coming here way then young Griff. Its simple math.
Daenerys had the better chance of conquering Westeros. Its a simple gesture (the eggs) to equate value of a potential future relationship. To be rewarded later down the line if Daenerys is successful. Illyrio took care of both Daenerys and Viserys, she wont forget that and he keeps himself away from danger. Illyrio is tactical and smart, its why he's rich, he knows a good investment when he sees one.
So, they intended to make there be a public record of the movements of the eggs, so that later, people will realise that Dany is the owner of eggs that are linked to Blackfyres, and assume shes a blackfyre.... This makes no sense because, firstly, they didn't know the dragons would hatch. Imagine Dany and Drogo become powerful Khal and Khaleesi and the dragons never hatched - well, nobody would actually know they owned the eggs. They would simply remain as private possessions, like jewellery or any other treasure. Even if others did know that Dany possessed the eggs, she could just tell the truth and say she got them as a gift. Or, as a powerful khaleesi, she would own treasures from a variety of conquered peoples.
Or people who they intimidate into giving them "gifts".
The typing assist tried to make it "gift cards".
Now I can't stop thinking about giving the Dothraki Horselords gift cards.
Interesting theory! But I'm not sure I quite understand the implications of it. If the idea is to prevent any future challenger to Aegon, then why not simply just kill Dany and Viserys? Assuming they couldn't simply be killed, why bother trying to preemptively discredit them? Westeros is proven to be a rule-by-might society, and given that Dany/Viserys will eventually militarily clash with Aegon for the Iron Throne, why not just sell the eggs to raise more levies for Aegon?
I wonder if this would make Dany doubt her own identity. It would be difficult, her inconsistent memories could be preyed upon by Illyrio but it’s unlikely that Viserys, who was more conscious than her on account of his age, would be tricked into having a fake sister. Still, it’d be intriguing if at the same time Jon has to wrestle with the idea that he’s a Targaryen that Dany would have to wrestle with the idea that she could not be
Uh that's a very good theory 👌
I dont think its a plothole because they werent suppose to hatch. I think Illyrio giving them to Dany is a sort of goodbye to the old era of the Dragonlords. Dany wasnt suppose to survive. So the possession of the dragon eggs wouldve been in dorthraki hands and never wouldve hatched, if she survived she wouldve sold them to buy a fleet and sellswords. War is expensive and the dorthraki dont built things so it makes sense.
I think people are just thinking hard on this topic when its very simple they were valuable accessories. Like the equivelant of a very expensive custom made rolex watch, looks good on a wealthy powerful man but useless on a begger untill they sell it.
So a slighlty different theory I have is that illyrio and varys underestimated the insanity of viserys and actually wanted to use him to help crown his brother adding an extra layer of legitimacy as the golden company was waiting for viserys to join.
Wouldn’t Young Griff showing up with the sword Blackfyre prove his illegitimacy by using this same argument?
I think it would depend on the paper trail for how he got it. Which I think they will have in line for the eggs. But perhaps this is why Illyrio would still have the sword at his place and not have Aegon running around with it yet... But I forget if he was implied to have given him the sword before he invaded or not. I know he implied having it and wanting to give it to him. Maybe it is best to wait until he is established.
In any case even if he has it then Dany having a blackfyre artifact as well might be even more important to make both muddy. I also think they might also end up with the conquerors crown if they can get Doran in the fold with a Marriage and he happens to have it.
Definitely some details to work out yet as to how the whole thing will play out and how it was planned originally.
Amazing
In Bravos there is a man made garden or garden house with a Red Door. Can’t remember the channel that found that out but George did write it
There is one weak point to the theory and that is everyone in the Seven Kingdoms knew that Daenerys and Viserys were the children of the Mad King.
If they're going to claim that Daenerys and Viserys were Blackfyres, everyone would want to know exactly what happened to the real Daenerys and Viserys.
Also King Robert called a Small Council to deal with the threat of a pregnant Daenerys.
There are living witnesses of this.
How did they intend to explain away this?
“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns?
Looks like Tristan knows about GRRM.
I think not. I think the master planners let one drop. But it was bunches of fun.
I juat assumed it was to pay for the ships to bring the dothraki army to westeros. the reason for dragon eggs insted of gold or random gems it for illirio to feign ignorance with "It was just a pressent how was i supposed to know they would sell a family hairloom"
Very possible and that is a good cover to tell Dany, but I think GRRM adding those stolen eggs to the world building is him setting up for this reveal.
If Danny's brother did sell the eggs for an army or ships to bring the Dothraki army over, the eggs would magically be stolen / or "somehow" end back in the hands of Illiryo.
Well now we know that visions of danearys bringing back the dragons was prophesied, so she is sorta like a prophetic incubator needed to bring back the dragons
A big thing about game of thrones seems to be about schemers slamming into each other, so it makes a lot of sense.
"A risky theory, one might even say desperate" I think Varys and Illyrio base their plans on much more concrete facts rather than an information war. There is next to not certainty an information war would pay off in any way what so ever
“This would be easier if someone hadn’t given her dragons” “Shut up it was a great plan until the eggs hatched!!” Makes me laugh every time. 😂
I heard of your channel from an LmL video, and I love this theory and your other videos so far. Subscribed:)
Huh, I thought it was pretty obvious from the get go. What better way to curry favor and distract Vis and Dany than by giving Dany what amounts to three rocks. The Summerhall incident would reveal that the Targaryens didn’t know how to hatch them after the dragons died out (pretty sure their existence is necessary for dragons to be born and we saw with each generation less and less hatchlings until all the dragons were gone). Dany doing that blood magic thing sure did torpedo their plans so they now had to make her an ally cuz how the fuck can they battle her when she has giant living flame throwers?
I problem though, her and vise rays are known children of King arys. I'm not convinced this would work honestly.
Particularly Viserys who was 7 or so at the time? And his death would have been greatly celebrated by King Bob and his every move watched by same.
Viserys is well known enough. Dany is known to exist but before the dragons I could see some people doubting her in world because people who read the books also doubt her legitimacy as the Mad King's daughter. From her suspicious conception, to her birth, and sneaking out, and her memories of her childhood. So they have enough reasons to make people doubt her.
So then in a world with no photographs and nobody having seen Viserys you suddenly have two blonde people showing up claiming to be Targs and saying the other is a Blackfyre. I see it as very possible to cast doubt and say no clearly this isn't the real Viserys he has blackfyre eggs. It is known that there is a Viserys but nobody has any idea what he is like.
Combine this with the pairing them with the Dothraki who people wouldn't like and it is just an all across the board try everything to delegitimize them and make them hated. You will never convince anyone who knows Viserys well at all but 99% of westeros will probably have no context to sort this situation out. So basically make them all confused and like your guy better and you should have support.
@@michaeltalksaboutstuffYeah, sorry I don't really buy either. It's a cool theory, but the whole point of Daenerys' claim is that people know who Daenerys is. Her entire life has been tracked since birth. Her identity and existence was never a secret, as it is the case of Young Griff or even Jon Snow, as Keven Lannister himself points she is a Targaryen whose blood no one question which gives her an upper hand on Young Griff despite being a woman which is something the Captain of the Golden Company even points out when Young Griff decides to go to Westeros without Dany and the marriage pact in place, a decision which is going to bite him in the ass down the road:
"The captain-general looked as if someone had slapped his face. "Has the sun curdled your brains, Flowers? We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender." -- A Dance with Dragons - The Lost Lord
Dany existence is very much hidden from the Small folk. King Robert Baretheon was a disaster as a monarch. Last thing King Robert wanted is the knowledge of a potential rival to the Iron Throne.
@@WhitneyAllisonGGNo it's not.
"No," said Alleras. "It was Prince Rhaegar's young son Aegon whose head was dashed against the wall by the Lion of Lannister's brave men. We speak of Rhaegar's sister, born on Dragonstone before its fall. The one they called Daenerys."
"The Stormborn. I recall her now." Mollander lifted his tankard high, sloshing the cider that remained. "Here's to her!" He gulped, slammed his empty tankard down, belched, and wiped his mouth with the back of his hand. "Where's Rosey? Our rightful queen deserves another round of cider, wouldn't you say?" -- A Feast for Crows - Prologue
"Dragon's eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai. The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty." - words by Illyrio
"If he'd known they were like to hatch, he'd would have sat on them himself" - words by Jorah Mormont to Daenerys
To Illyrio it was just a very expensive trinket well suitted as a wedding present.
How does the wine merchant assassin work into this?
Speculation, but if she dies there and Khal Drogo invades with Viserys for revenge you say "This blackfyre boy killed the real Dany and Viserys I can prove it, Dany is gone and he has Blackfyre Eggs. But no fear brave Aegon and Jon Con are here to save us."
I think their plans always involved some amount of chance but in general they wanted them red handed holding those eggs when they came to westeros.
If Young Griff is confirmed to be a Blackfyre, someone needs to make the Star Wars meme with Poe saying "somehow the Blackfyres returtned"
But isn’t the golden company a known organization started by blackfyres? And they’re the ones with griff? Right?
It seems so overcomplicated like would people really care that some dragon eggs belonged to some blackfyres
Illyrio giving 3 dragon eggs to dany is like giving her 3 bitcoins in 2011 without knowing the future
It was more of a gift to Drogo than Danny, the Drogo x Aegon alliance would be cemented via good relations with danny. Two birds one stone. Danny never had intentions to rule, she was forced into the position. So putting this into perspective, the horde would be the main attackers and allow the golden company to lay siege to castles in Westeros. The plan was amazing. The kicker is magic struck and threw everyones plans, even Drogos to the wind. Drogo had a fetish for Valyrian things. He wanted to cement a new Khalasar line with Valyrian lineage which I suspect he had some of to hold such a fixation.
I'm honestly not sure that I buy it, but it would be pretty funny that if these were supposed to be "blackfire" eggs, they actually hatched and produced a dragon with literal black fire.
But everyone knew about and was tracking Daenerys her whole life from birth. Not sure anyone would believe she was a Blackfyre. I think fAegon was just a retcon George had
The question here is this: why Asshai? Jorah is obsessed with getting Danny to Asshai. And then once the eggs hatch Jorah suddenly doesn’t want to go to Asshai.
It seems likely that Ilyrio did want the eggs to hatch.
my question is: why would it matter if she were painted as a Targ or Blackfyre? Nobody much younger than Barristan or Blackfish were even around for the last Blackfyre rebellion. and what is it they always say? "a coat of red a coat of gold, a lion still has claws" & then "it was the dragons we bent the knee to" so red or black, at this point any dragon will be seen as a return to form.