Ray Kurzweil - What's the Far Future of Intelligence in the Universe?
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- Опубликовано: 6 янв 2013
- Our universe has been developing for about 14 billion years, but human-level intelligence, at least on Earth, has emerged in a remarkably short period of time, measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of years. What then is the future of intelligence?
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Ray Kurzweil is such a brilliant visionary.
Closer to Truth always asks the most profound and inherently interesting questions. Lamentably, the responses it generates often leave a lot to be desired. Surprisingly enough, the reason for that is not because the questions are fundamentally difficult (at times close to impossible) to address, but mostly because those consulted ‘specialists’ more often than not try to dodge the issue by rephrasing the original question and attempting to answer their own watered down version of it! I don’t think anyone is really excepting a final answer to those profound questions. What people expect is to see how the so-called experts approach those tough questions, in their original intent, without dodging them, taking them out of context, or reformulating them into completely reconstructed versions that they feel more comfortable addressing.
Robert: "What is the far future of human intelligence?"
Ray: "In less than 100 years we will be a trillion times more intelligent and have worked out how to break the most fundamental law in the universe".
Alex: "Oh, ok...But I wanted to know how smart we will be in 101 years".
Me: "Dickhead!"
What Ray Kurzweil is getting at and what most people don't realise is that by 2045 his brain extended with chipped artificial intelligence will be able to gain superpowers by learning how to manupulate laws of physics.
@sdfbtnsfgd lmao
@@utubekullanicisi HAHAHAHA
I'm laughing at the name too!
I have something for you: ruclips.net/video/MvEXkd3O2ow/видео.html
& this was nearly 9 years back! When you get to mix CRISPR, quantum computers & the inevitable AI that’s being developed at break-neck speed all over the world I think the singularity will be with us earlier than he says.
Humans will be more concerned with extending natural life than exceeding the speed of light, at least until the former is achieved.
But the former will be achieved 100 years earlier.
thats extreme, it will only take a few centuries to already saturate all multiverses and omniverses and everything beyond into intelligence
However, the reverse of future prognostication is also the opposite of predicting the negative. Two years before the Wright brothers lifted off on their "surley wings" a british scientist said something like "the chance that man will ever fly on his own is utter bilge". Or something similar.
I was really impressed with the way he spoke in this interview because it was so fast and quick unlike how he normally speaks in other interviews which are much slower, but then i realized my setting were set up to speed up the video 1.5 times. It sounded so normal to me haha
Amazing look at the future. Ray is one smart dude.
Turn up the volume please!
And this, 11 years ago!
Our population has almost tripled since 1950. We must have a license to drive, or get married, but people who have no business having kids, and or cannot afford to take care of themselves are having babies constantly and it goes completely unchecked. We could not even think about extending life much beyond 100 years without first slowing down the population explosion.
I believe people should have the right to have kids, but not 4,5,6,7 kids when you can't even afford one.
I'm all for extended life, and love all of Ray's work, but we can't have both.
Instead of asking about our intelligence in the far future, how about our population in the far future.
Well if Ray Kurtzweil is correct population is irrelevant becuase the rate at which technology will increase will raise the stadard of living so hugh
+Chris S true! but is very complex
Chris S having kids is no right. managing overpopulation is the right thing to do. if the limit has been reached. there would have to be some kind of trade where the parent agrees to die within 50 years after having 1 kid. this means 2 kids pr family at the expense of parents agreeing to die. i dont see many people willing to make this trade. especially if you take into account that these potential parents perspectives will have changed dramatically as a result of better information and higher intelligence. they will probably just realise that having kid isnt as special as many people think it is today. having a kid is an experience as any other, and those other experiences in the future are probably a lot more satisfying than creating a kid at present time. effectivley making the option of not having a kid a nobrainer
We already know it's possible to bend space-time...one example is how we can see stars behind the sun, because of it's incredible mass it bends the space around it, making the stars behind it visible. Now all we have to figure out is how to generate a VERY massive gravitational field in order to 'bend' point B closer to where we currently are at point A.
I'm confidently convinced we'll figure this out shortly after the singularity, when there are AI billions of times smarter than we are...
There would be astonishing energy requirements for any option at those types of distances. A NASA scientist Harold White and his team got the energy requirement for a warp drive going ten times the speed of light down the the annual energy consumption of the united states which is a lot but MUCH less than what was estimated before. You're correct about time dilation but that would open up a whole other set of problems.
I wonder if a million years is enough for our civilization to spread throughout the entire multiverse. 2^1000000 is a very big number, but so is the size and number of universes.
Stuff like this makes me realize by being 20 now I'm going to see the future
awesome awesome
The speed of light speed limit is not important if we live for enormous periods of time.
Hear, hear.
Well there was this show "Through a wormhole" with Morgan freeman and this Yale professor had this really complex machine with all these crazy things in it and this guy detected a very small amount of negative energy making the idea of a warp drive technically possible. Here's a guy that founded an organization claiming to send an interstellar mission by 2100 he gives a cool talk /watch?v=2Ke4CrgRH50 There are many cool things on the topic just search around any you will find lots of stuff.
Not just the resources of the earth, but the resources of the solar system, particularly the sun, are immediately available to us. That's a lot to get through before we need to start thinking about another star.
"Some kind of illusion" is that what you base your view on? "Mind is fundamental"...Also how do holographic properties lead to these?
we are all living in a simulation of some thing else's creation and soon we will be advanced enough to create our own. I have seen the face of the creator and it is me.
exactly...
Eight dimensions, Ray. The E8-quasi crystal is as obvious as the pilot-wave theory ;)
the volume is to low
wow
I don't agree with the final prediction he makes on a single entity of "intelligence" will emerge from the efforts of mankind.
I took the way to find out what the united goal of mankind is and I didn't find any, although coexisting and concurrently expanding has some popularity.
Kurzweil at some point states that we may be able to take shortcuts to faraway places in the galaxy via the extra dimensions of string theory, if they turn out to exist. But that's just a misunderstanding, plain and simple. The extra spatial dimensions of string theory are specifically designed to curl up into tiny closed shapes, so that only the smallest objects --- the strings of which all elementary particles are supposed to made --- can move freely through them; and they don't go very far!
I don't get it; say the computational power shows a exponential growth pattern for some time does not necessarily mean there will ever be a exponential growth
He bases his models on economic predictions assuming moore's law holds. There's more to Kurzweil than his interview simplistic ramblings about steps exponentially and linearly. To be perfectly honest I would never recommend hearing his speeches it's all the same stuff. His books however have great material, and elaborate on his main premise fairly well. Do I entirely agree with him? No, but he does have some interesting ideas and is worthwhile to listen to.
So hardware and software will decide for itself as a new form of life how it will evolve and express itself.
Where does it then emerge from? I feel the assumption he's making is very safe.
You have stated "So "AI" is the the extension of natural human intelligence and capability"
This is known as intelligence amplification.
Ray Kurzweil's position is that human intelligence modelling via brain models will allow us to create human level machines.
If this occurs and there is little doubt it will not then these AI will be to carry out CERN level of computation in nano seconds and all at human level.
I bet his has been working all these years into creating or replicating his own brain and intelligence to become the future supermind humanity should give birth too, and yeah if we're lucky enough we might be alive by then to join this journey.
If they do manage to bend time and space. a.k.a warpspeed. we'll be cruising around quite a bit.
Even if we're immortal most people wouldn't accept a trip to a nearby star taking hundreds of years never mind getting to another galaxy taking millions of years. Now Warp Drive and wormholes are actually possible since it was found that negative energy exists but if there's somehow absolutely no way getting to a destination faster then light would take us then we're essentially trapped. Look up how NASA is testing warp drive it's pretty interesting.
Several universities have already created transistors at the .1 nm size.
When Ray says "we" will be doing this or that in the future, he doesn't mean we the humans, but the AI that succeedes us. If we're lucky this AI will be benevolent toward the biological life on Earth, including us.
Why wouldn’t AI be benevolent towards humanity? We would essentially be its parents, having “given birth” to it, so to speak. The idea that AI would hate us is an argument I don’t buy.
Thinking faster means beeing more smart. No one said that there are no risks in that. I mean, if intelligence even arises if one does nothing (from evolution) it cant be impossible to produce or improve.
Some beautiful ideas but when RK says "we" will spread out through the universe, I'm not sure that "we" will be recognisable by us as human. I expect they would be humanoid synthetic beings.
not there, humans would have evolved into omnipotent posthuman gods by the time they saturate the universe with intelligence, and possibly even the multiverse, then omniverse, what would an infinite array of macroversal minds in unison be capable of, I'm guessing omnipotence would be bullshit at that point
Daisy's song (Google)
An ode search 💻
I search it all, I'm not shy 📖
I search for pictures, I search for pi 🍰
I search, I search, at least I try 😮
we will stop going out into the universe because it is to far and therefore, takes too long. the singularity will take place sooner because a computer program will figure out how to do the same thing our brain does more efficiently. just like the rest of our body although wonderful it is terribly inefficient.
we will eventually spend our time looking inward, virtual worlds, transhumanism both biological and machine augmentation.
just no point in going out to other rocks... to what look at them... exploit the resources .... makes no sense.
Our body is not inefficient.
It is great for energy conservation.
It can be improved though.
The human mind/body can achieve seemingly "impossible" and at times, almost miraculous things.
disagree a lot here. the conversations are amazing. the marketing/communications aspect could definitely be a lot better. they only started uploading videos to RUclips in Jan of this year. Website is rather clunky and outdated. Mr. Kuhn is a fascinating fellow though, props to him for this entire project.
Why space expands faster than light spee.d (space time is quantized and made of cubes or SANDS of SPACE-TIME, thas it's somehow "materyalized"
Universe nice
so i can ask Ray? he is a scientist, in also know there are many scientists that try to understand the brain so that they can upload info. There are actually scientists that do research this, how do i know? Because some scientists just said they didnt know how to do it...
And what does it matter if it takes 30,000 years to get somewhere if you are virtually immortal?
It is not adavances in the speed of transport which will give us the stars - it is hugely increased life-spans, not least because there will have to be migration as the population soars with extra longevity.
In my opinion if we focus on using AI to boost our own cognition, Borg style, then the whole argument about man vs machine goes away.
***** Cyborgism will be my favorite hobby.
I like George zebrowskis macrolife
Once you realize you are being influenced, you can do something about it.
While I agree that bad and good are a direct result of our evolution and perception, in the "real world" that is the perfect excuse to do daily little annoying bad stuff.
At the end of the day you just treat people how you wanna be treated yourself/ or was treated.
Unlike 30 years ago. We didnt have the computer power to even consider creating Artificial intelligence. Even today its not enough. As computers get stronger. And match the power of the human brain. We can create intelligent machines.
@ 3:43 the nerdgasm of the interviewer starts
They look like brothers
Sir i m invented tree sensorable Ai algorithm or tree sensor computer system and power acceptor large machine. This power acceptor help update new type quantum computer. I m 10 years old student my dream true sir India India
how can we be sure that a technological intelligence will experience qualia and not just be a functional zombie?
But a human thinking a hundred times faster than a normal human is not smarter? I think having new inovations a hundred times faster is a sign of increased intelligence. Because we can atleast use the algorithm in the brain and speed it up. We can very likely scale it up aswell.
two smart men , you technology in 1000 years won't see a rock thrown with force , your technology will never be as great as mine
When I'm hearing this guy, I feel like a loser spending my time with the study of the ancient languages...
+Zarathustra Reborn you should change your major even if you loose a year of credits which is unlikely 😐
lol me two
Zarathustra Reborn
the priority of a madmen :S
I did my undergrad in anthropology and was going to do a masters in genetics and got into med school after several tries. My real interest has always been physics. I was in 10th grade when I heard the voice of God channeled by Carl Sagan Now Ray is doing it
I disagree. Keep at it if that is what you want to do.
Do you have any evidence?
Machines no matter how "advanced" they become will rely on the physics that human minds understand invent and observe. And since physics is an observation of reality that essentially cannot be changed merely manipulated or toyed with machines will not transcend our comprehension. In order for this to happen machines would have to create their own physics which is impossible/god, which does not exist. Faster does not mean better A fast webpage today is essentially the same as a page 10 years ago.
Well, multiverse is just a theory. I think it is true, yes, but even the size of THIS universe alone is beyond most people's comprehension. Extending civilization that far would probably take a little more than a million years.
Humans can conceptualize without actually partaking or instigating such concepts. It is called imagination and it is not the same as violence.
Violence is an action of a physical nature not a neural conceptualized model. I can now imagine my self falling out of a plane or storming the beach at Normandy but that does not mean that I will do it.
Humans are lucky we made it this far after nuclear bombing of Japan in World War II. Between nuclear, chemical, and germ warfare on top of natural disasters, the likelihood of being here in 100 years to take care of computers is not high.
Is the Universe Infinite? If it were, how could it be if it had a beginning? If a baby is born today but it goes on to live forever is it infinite? Was it always infinite or did it have a beginning? If it had a beginning, is it still infinite? It the universe is infinite does that mean anything that is possible can happen? And if so can it happen immediately so that anybody can call upon it and get his wishes granted. I don't think so. I believe the universe had a beginning and it was limited by its own birth. It may go on to become infinite, but that does not mean it was always infinite. Thus, there must have been a beginning to the Universe. The questing is: Could the universe created itself or did it have a Creator? What is a more logical explanation? Either the universe created itself or it had a Creator? Once you accept the only logical answer, then you must ask yourselves about the nature of the Creator and where and how to search for the Creator of the Universe. However, if you believe the Universe created itself, then you must come up with a logical scientific theory of how the universe could self create.
Which seems more plausible to you? Either the universe was "self created" or did it have a "Creator"? I have my own personal opinions which I'll leave to myself. But I'll give you a spoiler, "how could something from nothing self create" without a cause?
Wait which one is Ray? They look the same!
Watching his other videos I always thought the interviewer was Kurzweil, until I looked him up. They could be brothers.
but that means there's no other intelligent life out there that is as intelligent as us because they would have done that already.
I don't know.I would say that we are living in the most peaceful times since....ever?!?!
Sure there still is violence and there are wars going on but according to history we are slowly becoming more peaceful.
The thing is I don't know if people have really become more peaceful or are just living a comfortable and lazy lifestyle.
There are computer systems that can sky the night sky for stars and exo-planets at millions of time the speed a human can achieve.
Information is transferred and interpreted in nano seconds that our brain pattern capabilities can not even come close to.
Our brains at a certain level run on ones and zero's.
Mathematics is a human creation and that is the nature of AI. When you talk of AI what you are referring to is human structured intelligence. Intelligence is skills of the environment.
So if there is an AI that reaches superintelligence, say thousands of times smarter than the smartest human would there be any problem that couldn't be solved anymore, will everything and anything now be possible if we simply ask the ASI?
David Oze they will be billions times smarter then every human combined, and yes any question can be answered they already have one that the uploaded wiki pedia into it and put it on a game show against the 2 best people, and you can ask it any question and it would have the answer instantly, soon this technology will be on our phones we already have the very minor version with siri. so once this takes off everything will change so quickly all medical issues will be solved there will be no diseases nothing because they will have every piece of information in the world and be able to answer anything
Haste h Yeah hopefully that will be the case, but by the time that there's a super ai i don't think we would have handheld phones or things like that anymore
+David Oze It would be able to come up with solutions but we would still be the ones to implement them. Imagine your dad telling you what major would lead to the best possible lifestyle. You're still the one that has to go school, take the classes and get the grades. It would also need raw data and we're the ones that will create the data for it to process.
Salim Ali so from what I understand, you saying that the AI will give us the instruction manual but we'll still be clueless? Yeah i see what you mean. There's one thing I dont get though, if the AI is so smart, wouldn't it be able to do something that would make us able to understand how to implement things, or would it even require human help?
I think the A.I will have the same effect on us that the internet did which is that the vast majority of people use it for entertainment purposes. So to answer your question, some people will use A.I in highly productive ways like doing research and solving problems, starting businesses etc.. but most will probably be clueless and use it just for entertainment.
Not if we get to the point where the only reason we ever drop out of warp is to shoot a nanite probe at a planet or moon, lol.
Yes, thought is the precursor of violence. All of our actions are influenced by our thoughts. This is child play knowledge and the fact you fail to see this is a great cause for concern. Kurzweil confuses miniaturization with exponential growth or advancement. All the technology we have now are things that could be easily duplicated in the 80's if we could go back in time with the blueprints, they could make it. There has been no energy revolution. Which is the only important thing. Energy.
If the universe is infinite, that means that there has to be intelligent life out there. why haven't we come in contact with them yet? obviously since traveling long distances does seem to be possible with the right technology, there's got to be aliens who can do that.
Where are humans going.
I think he’s being WAY too generous with his exponential numbers.we aren’t even close to where we thought we’d be in say back to the future movies .We’ve never gone back to the moon, we cant cure the common cold....it goes on and on. Humans are smart, but we have limitations.
Yes humans. But not with advanced AI
This is the "before" hair. Fascinating.
Space is expanding, so eventually it will be impossible to travel among galaxies.
But what if we encounter aliens?
9:42 “2 stars can be moving apart faster than light if there’s a great distance between them” - wrong. They can move apart faster than light regardless of distance.
ray is makin an assumption. that mind emerges form matter. he has a materialistic worldview. but there are many problems with that view.
i suggest Johanan Raatz youtube channel, there are 2 videos : the introspective argument, and the second one "can science find a soul".
based on science,
ray is very likely mistaken.
i know that he wants to life forever, and bring back his father but ... :)
That was kind of a dumb opening question. It's hared enough to predict 10 years in the future, much less millions.
Strong AI will reach the limits of intelligence within decades, if not sooner.
well if you have a powerful enough of a computer it will reach the limits of intelligence in a day then it will ask the ultimate question...
Well considering you can't exceed the speed of light, no, we won't.
Yea Watson was way smarter then a rat, in fact it was smarter then the best two human jeopardy players ever, Watson got a higher score then both of them combined. Jeopardy is a game that requires such a acute sense of the ambiguous puns, riddles, and other subtle language tricks that most humans can't understand it, also the game requires you to be knowledgeable about everything, so playing jeopardy is about the most broad task you could give something to do.
Actually the largest supercomputers are now as intelligent as a human.
No
Having thoughts does not mean that a person is violent.
What precisely in kurzweil's theories make him a fraud.
doesn't he know that moore's law is reaching a limit
yes he knew (06:25). do you know parallel processing, multi-core, ..??
i do
moore law is just a small sub paradigm
By the way. about 10 years ago. Computers could match the intelligence of worms...Nowdays computer match the intelligence of rats. This process will continue to grow until it reaches the power of a human brain. And far beyond.
Booth
He doesn't understand expansion.
So basically according to Ray in 2100 whatever human or robot that Will be around will be like God, I wish I could see that haha
Who say it will be a simulation and not an actually physical object with trillions of neurons that is based upon human neural structures.
And it does not have to have a soul or any of that mystic nonsense it could be a machine that operates at human levels of performance.
And when this machine is integrated with a humans then a singularity can occur.
Your assumption is that I cutting humans out of the loop when in fact they would be part of the loop.
i base my view on science, primarily,
and logic secondly.
this messages are not the proper way of discussing matters,
so i will ask you to watch those videos that i have mentioned, there is 10 times more information than can fit in this 500 carachters
I am not talking about spiritual mumbo jumbo or as you put it cutting "humans out of the loop". I am not criticizing the singularity from that stance. I am merely criticizing Kurzweil notions on a purely technical and political standpoint. Technologically we are nowhere near Kurzweil vision of a singularity and politically if human beings had any of these extraordinary capabilities while retaining our animal nature we are further headed for catastrophe. In this regard the singularity is a sham.
Everybody has been influenced. Whether it be by the "wrong" or "right" people or things, I could give a shit. According to the perspective right and wrong are both interchangeable. It's all about the fight and struggle. Whoever wins is the right one.
This Ray-guy has many visions…it's just a bummer that none of them will come true, if humanity has only 10 years left on earth because of abrupt climate change
But where is the exponential growth of intelligence in machines? What is growing, according to Moore's law, is the brute number crunching power of computers and its memories, but so far there is no signs of growth in "intelligence" (whatever that might mean). My brand new pc isn't more intelligent than my Apple II 30 years ago. It just has an OS with more functions. I don't understand what Kurweiler is talking about.... The growth of intelligence will continue to be biological.
It is more intelligent you dumb
Please, try not to feed the Awbrfg55 troll
Nonsense! The holographic principle is nothing but speculation that has no empirical support whatsoever. And in fact the only empirical tests that have been proposed to support the hypothesis would lead to contradictions with string theory calculations.
Your view points of engineering are flawed.
Microchips of today could not be duplicated in the 80s it would have been impossible. Because they would not had the computing power to design or fabricate such nano scale integrated circuits.
What type of growth do you actually think occurred in computation over the last 100 years.
Where is all the electricity going to come from to run these super computers? We can barely keep our lights on now!