End Games: America Strikes Back, Congress Strikes Out on Immigration | GoodFellows
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- Опубликовано: 8 фев 2024
- While the American reprisal against Iranian proxies across the Middle East is impressive in its harnessing of firepower, technology, and intelligence, does it advance the goals of deterrence and de-escalation? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the pros and cons of the current US strategy and their concerns over the lack of an apparent end game. Following that: a conversation about Donald Trump’s appeal to voters and his detractors’ inability to understand his populist resonance (the subject of a recent John Cochrane Wall Street Journal op-ed); how best to revitalize African nations; plus Niall’s annual abhorrence of Super Bowl Sunday (spoiler alert: he’s not a “Swiftie”).
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
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The USA shipbuilding situation is disgusting and appalling. The lack of young people interested in the trades is also an awful sign of the culture.
The Republican party in the US and the Conservative party in the UK have been coopted by fringe groups. Right now we have no centre right party to vote for that is run by serious politicians, that can get the job done and are focused on outcomes. We have politicians forged in the furnace of social media, incentivised by engagement and outrage over hard work. How do we rebuild the incentive structure to encourage capable people to enter politics?
Go back and watch interviews of politicians from the 60s - 80s, the current crop are not in the same league.
@walkerdavidm I feel like your general premise is correct, but your details are poorly formulated. Only referring to policy, the Tories and the GOP are not very conservative, and many of the issues in the United States were created by these "super intelligent" politicians (see Thomas Sowell).
Easy thing to say. However, when "center right" politicans refuse to engage with very real issues, if not actively work against them this is what you get. A good example would seem to be conservatives in the UK being in part elected to restrict immigration and doing anything but the sort. The groups overall might be "fringe" but they're seemingly often the only ones even willing to pay lip service to very real issues with popular support/concern.
More accurately, the right's politics hasn't shifted in decades. Rather, as the left shifts further left, the perceived center moves left also, making the right seem "far right"...
Rishi Sunak, Jeremy hunt, James Cleverly a fringe group? Not by any measure.
I suspect the solutions comes down to:
1. Education in history
2. Successful parenting
3. Local community support for successful parenting
Voters are not going to send "serious politicians" to office if they don't know history well enough to judge any policy as good or bad. The result is that they vote based on feelings and thus we get politicians from the caste you mentioned. More to the core of the issue though is that we don't produce enough well adjusted children that go on to have children themselves. The solution for all of this I think comes down to successful parental engagement.
I wonder why Niall and all expressed their disappointment at us not sending resources to Ukraine with nobody in the group stating the obvious: Donald Trump opposes it and the Republicans are following suit. Why don’t we just say it?
I enjoyed this show, thanks guys.
Thanks again for another great forum
Thank you as always, gentlemen!
I love these talks. You often speak about articles and books. I would love if the links could be shared in the comments. That would be terrific. I am looking forward to Nail Ferguson’s volume two in Kissinger. He was a world treasure. Sometimes dinted and with patin but a treasure. I loved HK’s last book Leadership.
Kissinger…A legacy of War Crimes
Did this video disappear for a time? I was watching it maybe 6 hours ago until RUclips threw an error- I couldn’t find it on the channel afterwards.
Oh well. Glad to be able to finish it now.
I wrote a two paragraph comment and received an error message telling me the comment failed to post. I tried a few different methods of commenting over a smallish time period. Eventually I moved on; I don't want to spend hours on a comment when there are more productive things I can do (like mixing tenses because I'm not going to proof read).
I left the first three comments on the video and now those comments and the video are gone. I'd hate to think that it was my comments that got it deleted.😮
Ya same. Said it was a private video and unavailable
It is not politicising, but holding those who held the highest office accountable for unlawful conduct.
HR McMaster’s book “Dereliction of Duty : Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam”
Thank you.
"A people unused to being restrained must be led; they will not be drove'". - George Washington
It is an incredible gift to be able to listen to people of such depth and caliber.
Thinking and praying for everyone at the Hoover Institute in the midst of such a great loss.
Terrible news. Vale Karen. Commiserations to family and Hoover.
Starting watching rugby this year, the excitement is palpable
Can we see clips of McMaster striking out on immigration policy vs Victor Davis Hanson?
Thanks for another great show! When do we get to see Rep Mike Gallagher back on the show? His committee is doing great work on exposing the CCP. He could bring Chris Brose along with him. What a great discussion with HR would take place!
I honor every one of our military men and women! That said the United States has no business getting into another war until our politicians learn how to win a war! In other words state the goals of the conflict then get out of the way and let the military take it from there. Obviously they haven’t learned anything.
It's not a new problem. Details obviously different from more recent conflicts, but fundamentally same problem in Vietnam: What's the desired post-conflict end-state? Is it attainable and sustainable? Or even remotely feasible at all? It's a cliche really...these questions have been asked for decades in many different contexts. Yet the answers remain elusive. Iraq is a prominent example: The actual "war" - i.e., the conventional military campaign culminating in toppling Saddam's Baath regime - was by any measure a meticulously-planned, superbly-executed success. When the President announced the "end of major combat operations" from that carrier flight deck, he wasn't wrong. It was the "OK, what now?" bit that administration messed up so terribly. This may sound like quibbling, but the distinction is important: the US did not screw up "the Iraq War"; what we blundered so badly was "the Iraq POST-war"....which of course was very different and far less successful than the war itself. It would appear no one had really thought through "okay, what happens AFTER we 'win'?".
A good counter-example is the first Iraq War in 1991. I perceive Desert Shield/Storm to have been one of the most intelligently and realistically-conducted US+allies military operations in the post-WW2 era. Finite, clearly-defined, attainable/sustainable objective (the liberation of Kuwait). Broad consensus (or at least non-objection) almost worldwide. Refusal by Bush41 to expand the campaign's goals to pursue operations into Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein. I believe he did so to preserve the broad coalition consensus (which included rather rare UN support/mandate) and, more importantly, to avoid exactly the kind of mess we found ourselves in a decade later. "You break it, you buy it."
CIA Coups in Iran, Guatemala, Congo, Dominican Republic, S Vietnam, Brazil, Chile..
This episode really lacked higher level discourse, damn. Y'all sounded like newscasters, this wasn't really as deep as Hoover's usual!
Such great analysis.
Didn’t the exact same conditions occur before the American civil war? Ie. states refusing to put candidates names on ballets; budget crisis every few months; cultural divisions a?
Heck, we even have two national anthems now; catering to separate populations.
On aid wasted in Africa, President Kagame of Rwanda is a huge Arsenal FC fan in the EPL, and I think Stan Kroenke got $20 million from Rwanda to promote the country at the Emirates Stadium, but we joke online, he got aid money, who knows where that money came from!
I look forward to this video every month. RIP to Karen and her husband. God bless
Would be interest in seeing this group talk about Trump’s desire to pull out of NATO
Well they highlighted how poorly maintained the militaries of our principle European allies are.
Probably shouldn't be taken seriously is why it's not talked about. I suspect it's another attempt to gain leverage and pressure Europe into spending more etc.
Trump's position has evolved. He now actively encourages the Russians to assault and invade Europe. But you're right, it would be good for them to address this issue.
FAKE NEWS.
I’m also interested in hearing this groups opinion on the events of January 6, 2021.
They've covered it, but don't cover it daily like mainstream leftist media
Go back in the archives. Niall called it sedition (including Trump), IIRC.
The problem with America is the GOP.
Great episode!
i like.very good ✅✌🏼
Excellent episode guys
Make the entire Iranian navy submarines.
Eisenhower overthrows the Iranian government via CIA Coup in 1953…USS Vincennes shoots down Iranian passenger flight 655 in 1988…Obama launches the world’s first known cyber weapon, Stuxnet, against Iran in 2009.
Another insightful discussion. Thank you gentlemen!
I find it curious that during all of the many of these insightful discussions, there's been ZERO mention of the now DECADES of unfettered annual foreign aid to Israel, or the fact that the United States Pentagon has now FAILED 5 separate financial audits. What about We The People; the common United States TAXPAYER?
Is Hoover Institute an *independent* research center? I have many doubts.
HR's prescient observation from 25:55, I believe he is correct.
Really? So you avoid the Carlson thing... I wait 'till the next one, I hope you'll be prepared by then...
I am sorry to hear of the loss of Karen. Very sad. I will pray for her, and her family may Our Lord Jesus be with them.
Why, you know,
do so many, you know,
Americans, you know,
suffer, you know,
from the "you-know-sickness"?
😅
Didn't America do a drone strike on an Iranian general not long ago?
No comment on Tucker's interview with Putin?
I disown Carlson
Feel better?
WELL of COURSE NOT! - This is THE HOOVER INSTITUTION!,: bought snd paid for by one Loopy Republican after snother! List we Ning to these huckleberries, you'd think TRUMP!; was just a MILDLY mis-directed version of their PATRON SAINT and FEAST-FOUNDER, the sainted R ONALD REAGAN!, - H.R. served him@, & even John Cochrane spouts as though the HAM-Hock Trump led a sainted economic plan: GIVE A TWO TRILLION "GEORGE W. BUSH" TAX GRANT TO THE 1%! THESE LADS WOULD ALL FIT PERFECTLY INTO THE CONFEDERATE SLAVE-HOLDING CABINET OF JEFFERSON DAVIS! (or is that VICTOR HANSON-DAVIS@?!
Time for a “proportional response”.
If you gloss over the content of the border bill, the democrats refusal to pass a lone Israel aid package, the implications of including aid to Gaza in the package via the UNRWA (particularly given the revelations from this past week), and the refusal to set end goals for Ukraine besides “as long as it takes” (either end goals of peace talks and security guarantees, or increased weapon capabilities to actually mount a successful counteroffensive and accompanying opsec requirements and level of direct us involvement, especially given problems with lost weapons etc)….
then sure certainly it seems the republicans are just being obstructionary and we need to expedite the aid
Yep. $10 billion of "humanitarian aid" to Gaza would be $9.9 billion of rearmament aid to Hamas.
Man, Chevy Chase has rally leaned into conservative politics.
Interesting, but ignoring the Tucker interview?
"Is the Electoral Fix Already In?" by Matt Taibbi fits like a pair of gloves with John Cochran's article.
it's been in since 1960.
John, we don’t have to worry about "Chinese sea power." There are only 12 super carriers in the world right now, and they're all American. China has only 2 jump carriers and you need 7 jump carriers to equal a super carrier.
One of those Chinese jump carriers is a hand-me-down they bought from the Ukrainians. The other one is just a clone of the Ukrainian one. Also, the Chinese cannot go further than 1,000 miles from their shore.
The American oil companies are sending billions of dollars' worth of US oil and natural gas overseas each year from US ports in foreign built ships. The cruise ship companies are taking millions of tourists to and from US ports each year in foreign built ships. And the huge cargo containers ships are unloading millions of containers each year in US ports that are full of Chinese and foreign made products from foreign built ships.
There’s no point in taking any of these people seriously. I remember their analysis of the war in Ukraine throughout 2022, even well into 2023 and their hubristic predictions of success. Their understanding of Russia, the overall situation and their predictions have all been abjectly, spectacularly wrong with Putin now a few months away from victory and the collapse of freedom in Europe underway.
your conversation progressed without any reference to nuclear arms capability or whether this is regarded as the ultimate deterrent. Employing latest conventional military technologies is the subject of the conversation, but is there any thinking among the powers that be (whether US, Europe, Israel, Russia, China or one day soon Iran) that the ultimate nuclear deterrent is still their ace in hand?
Time stamps plz
😢 ❤
First ! Hope they discuss Tucker - Putin and peace
Yep. We need an episode that help all sides to understand the propaganda versus facts and incorrect ways to interpret the interview.
42:08 here
Ronald Reagan would ride his horse straight to the tarmac where Tucker's Gulfstream landed and handle this mess properly himself.
⭐
Will Good fellows put an episode together on the Tucker Carlson interview with Putin? The community needs a sane interpretation of the interview. Great way to get new viewers too.
Waste of time.
It's is a shame that aid is being held up for Ukraine by US domestic issues. However, at the end of the day, the US and its issues come first, sorry, not sorry. Maybe Europe should take its self interest and it's regions self interest more seriously.
Interesting- "throw the first punch, and make it count"... here in nz (genx) "never throw the first pinch" I realise now it was more about deescalation, than the wrongs involved in physical assault.
I think John's point was about when a fight can no longer be avoided.
Both coasts hate flyover country. Go Chiefs.
Aren't we essentially doing for Ukraine what Iran is doing for Hamas?
TRADE NOT AID.
Why can’t Europe defend Ukraine???
Nice thumbnail
I think it's crazy that there has almost no mention anywhere of the incredible turmoil following the death of mahsa amini in Iran, and the relatively weak response from the Biden administration. In retrospect that was an incredible opportunity to unseat their government and remains so.
Eisenhower overthrew the Iranian government via CIA Coup in 1953.
$100B in aid to Ukraine wasn't enough to buy adequate cannon shells?
Time for a full accounting of every penny.
Ukraine needs a two-state solution.
18:30 How about the option of a ceasefire with Gaza? Wouldn’t that take some of the fuel out of the Middle Eastern fire?
There was a cease-fire in force there on October 6, 2023.
The meaning of a cease-fire there is that Hamas gets to rearm, reorganize and choose its moment for the next war.
Very little of what Netanyahu has done can be characterized as self defense. Genocide in real time.
Nugel. You need to get a hat with a broader brim.
A bit dissapointed by the Trump segment. Too soft, almost an endorsement.
LOL. The USA gets the gold medal for being the UberGott of Aggressors
WHO, is Taylor Swift? Mick the Hick🤔😇
On Niall's point, confusing Macron for Mitterrand is no big deal for us here in Ukraine, but Trump's Anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is. I've seen the argument made that Trump would be a disaster for foreign policy far more than President Biden's cognitive faux pax's would be. I tend to agree.
Except when Trump was in charge, we had peace. Everyone is focused on winning a war instead of winning the peace now. Trump had Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran in check.
Draft HR McMaster for prez in 2024!!!
The WW3 candidate
WHY? Because he relentless ly attacks the DEMOCRATS Foreigb Policy? which has TOTALLY knackered Putin's BALLS!, joined FINLAND snd SWEDEN into NATO!, put the FEAR OF THE LORD into IRAN!, "HOUTHI-VILLE-YEMEN!, cowed HEZBOSLLAH into burying their asses c in "THE sends of Lebanon", struck terror into SYRISN HOTTENTOTS w/ 2!, Carrier Strike Groups in the Mediterranean, & enisted ALLIED NAVAL SUPPORT from THE ROYAL and ROYAL CANADIAN NAVIES 🇨🇦 🍁 ENGLAND 🇬🇧 🏴 I the GULF!, and THE RED SEA? AND!, UNITED EUROPE in a SINGLE PURPOSE IN FOREIGN POLICY
Build a Wall in Gaza - get Mexico to pay for it!
41:14 absolutely. And while most of my life I supported the idea of ballers sneaking in and being safe... these days they adopt bigotry and self righteous anti government religious communities.... and it's not good for me, regardless of my bleeding heart.
I hear Mexico is going to be the next tiger economy. I bet Mexico's industrial base could benefit, as well as shaking up their electorate's ethnocentrism.
And we need Mexico to do all those things. There aren't any genocides occurring in Mexico, it's where asylum seekers should stop and make a new life.
HR - Would you address, with due seriousness, the justification of sending $ to Israel and Ukraine… given it will be borrowed $ on top of trillion $ annual federal deficits on top of a $34T debt?
To keep from spending $300B & thousands of American lives when Russia invades a NATO country….
Look at the US budget. The problem is mandatory spending plus debt interest (driven by the mandatory spending), which has ballooned to 70% of the total budget. Discretionary spending accounts for 30%, of which military spending is only about 20%. Annual interest on federal debt now is larger than annual defense spending. The fraction of defense spending for Ukraine is relatively small, about 10%, and for Israel is less than a percent.
From a spending perspective, it’s such a drop in the bucket. Social security, Medicaid, and Medicare are bankrupting the country. Only a few decades ago discretionary spending was 70% and mandatory was 30%…
Obviously military defense is something that doesn’t occur in a vacuum, and in the absence of US control and deterrence, foreign actors will make moves. The downstream effects will be much more costly to the American people than the spending itself (i.e. like how houthi actions in the Red Sea increase costs across the whole supply chain. if China took Taiwan it would be the same but 10-100x worse, costs for almost everything in the US would over double, and would limit resource supply, not to mention the technology implications of taking Taiwan, and the accompanying long term direct military threat to the US).
As is discussed in the video, Xi is paying attention to US responses to gauge his actions
Get VDH to talk to him. HR will get all blushed and flustered and have a little meltdown like last time
It is spent in the US! Weapons is sent, not dollars! To produce more new stuff at home!
A lot of this will change when the US elects a Republican -- Trump or DeSantis -- in November.
Rwanda well governed???? If that is is your exemplar Niall, Africa is really in trouble.
What happened? I had this saved to watch later earlier, and it disappeared… I was worried for a moment that RUclips might have removed it for some reason!
The question I have for all you experts is this: Should America be a cop to every nation in the world? America can't even take care of its own back yard. What are you guys arguing about. First get your own country in order then go back to being a world cop!
With borders broken and terrorists bolstering numbers within our borders, why is it acceptable for the majority of GOP to pass on significant progress towards deterrence through immediate action with a compromise rather than choosing good? Consider alternate history with the events leading to the events of 9/11; immediate action or sit on our hands.... An opportunity presented itself and we desired to act not. I am keen for an immediate fix, albeit not perfect, I will now gladly vote for progress before inaction as will many others that want to protect our democratic republic.
The bill will codify the chaos that is already happening and in many cases actually make it worse.
If Trump is elected & takes the USA out of NATO, Western Europe would be wise to already have the infrastructure for ramping up, as Niall asserts, for war.
The consensus of opinion regarding sending billions to Ukraine; one of the most corrupt countries in eastern Europe where most of it will "disappear" into corrupt pockets, and billions to Gaza, run by Hamas; an organization rung by terrorists as classified as by the U.S. is frankly, ludicrous and dumb. Each entity or issue should be assessed separate from each other. For example, U.S. border security should not be held hostage to a massive spending package. Period. The opinions on other subjects seem rational enough, this opinion is inexplicable.
HR still does vhs recording
Another episode of neocon corner 🎉
30:46 Not “illegitimate”. Fascist.
When Sec Def Austin gets well enough, I look forward to his statements about how all of the F-18 strikes were piloted by blacks, all of the missile intercepts were made by transexuals, and there is a ship in the Red Sea that is manned totally by lesbians (no pun intended). If diversity is our strength, and we certainly need all of our strength in this situation, then we need to display our diversity to our enemy. There is no way to challenge my logic. It is has been used to build our current military. Until McMaster comes out forcefully against what the DEI and CRT generals have done to our military, I don't want to hear another word from him. His ideas are useless when we can't field an army because our young white men are not joining, and for good reason.
But but but his military genius somehow led the US tank forces to victory against Iraq.. I mean if that's his achievement i don't understand why anyone was impressed by that. It's like an NFL team beating a college team. He's a complete stooge
I would really REALLY like to know what you think now that Trump has made his comments on NATO and inviting russia to invade NATO nations that don't pay up.
First
"Strikes back", I would like to have a word with your wife's boyfriend.
First!
Probably a good idea to break it down into 10 minutes segments I was looking for something on immigration, I don't have time for a 50 minute analysis of generalized topics
Neocons don't care about the border crisis lol
Here's a more detailed summary of the panel's discussion on immigration:
- They discussed a recent failed immigration reform bill in Congress. There was disagreement between the National Review and Wall Street Journal over whether Republicans should have supported the bill.
- The National Review argued the bill had some worthy provisions but wouldn't compel Biden to take real action to fix the broken asylum system being abused at the border.
- The Wall Street Journal said if Republicans reject the bill, they hand Democrats a campaign issue to claim the GOP wants border chaos.
- John Cochran argued both publications have a point - the bill wasn't an ideal solution, but rejecting it forfeits a chance to show Republicans can get things done on immigration.
- The national security implications of the border crisis were raised, with uncontrolled immigration enabling entry of threats.
- Niall Ferguson argued immigration reform should be reframed as a matter of national security in the face of the China threat, with a focus on securing borders but also reforming legal immigration to attract global talent.
- There was criticism of both parties in Congress for failing to reach agreement on something as fundamental as border security and reasonable immigration policies.
44:16 MAGAt propaganda, MAGAt fifth column.
I love you John, but Taylor Swift is not a wholesome woman. Pro choice and pro gay. Tell me about numbers.