Why Didn't Russia Just Invade in 2014? Would They Have Done Better?
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2023
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they didn't invade because they thought Ukraine would stop with attacking the seperatists, but after the failures of minsk 1 and 2 it was clear they weren't going to stop so Russia went in, as simple as that, The US would've done the same if they were being actively genocided in Mexico or Canada
@@valyshknee4203 Only one side is committing a genocide in Ukraine, and that side is Russia.
I am sorry , I am Ukrainian and your first minute has many mistakes.
1) Yanukovich fled while being outside Kyiv in Mezhyhirya Residence and later was kidnapped by russian black sea fleet. Most likely all preplanned and coordinated with moscow. With Crimea occupation already underway
2) Government stayed the same. Parlament, ministers etc. Yanukovich own party voted a vote of no confidence and was in minority thus power shifted to another party.
3) EuroMaidan was ALL UKRAINIAN EVENT. Not just western Ukraine Lol. Eastern Ukraine participated aswell.
4) Separatists never existed. Only sabotage groups from moscow and some collaborators. Girkin himself was stating at the time that he opened up prisons and received very little in volunteers. Then strange people from caucasus "appeared". And were ultimately defeated leading to russia invading with regular forces.
5)Russia wouldn't do better in 2014 because their army was much worse than 2022 army, with only 20 ka-52s and 100+ t-72b3s compared to 2000+ t-72b3s in 2022. Very little cruise /iskander missles etc no su-35s etc etc
Outcome would be the same.
The most simple answer is at that time Ukraine did not enthusiastic about joining Neto as it was a year ago. And Russia would not have the full excuse of annexing Crimea
@@dukenukem8381your works are complete bias anyone can say that
For Russia, the biggest difference between 2014 and 2022 is their preparedness to resist sanctions. While their army would've had an easier time in 2014, their economy would have been hit much more severely.
good point
Agreed.
Indeed if SWIFT was stopped they would have been brought down faster than they could advance, in one way Russia missed a trick in 2014 in another way they didn't really have much of a choice. Also reputation in 2014 Russia was still hoping for amicable relations with Europe and Ukraine by 2021 that had become a dead letter
I disagree because Wars cost money and Putin needed 8 more years to save $350 billion dollars total. Putin has been planning this for about 7 years now!
Excellent point
Back in 2014, the Russians themselves didn't think they'd get Crimea so easily. 2014 was them testing the waters.
2022 on the other hand is nothing like 2014. Ukraine was better prepared this time.
they didn't invade because they thought Ukraine would stop with attacking the seperatists, but after the failures of minsk 1 and 2 it was clear they weren't going to stop so Russia went in, as simple as that, The US would've done the same if they were being actively genocided in Mexico or Canada
@@valyshknee4203 There was no "genocide" in Donbass, that's Kremlin propaganda, Russia didn't abide by Minsk agreements either.
@@valyshknee4203 we wouldn't annex parts of Canada or Mexico so we wouldn't have to worry about them killing our soldiers to defend there territory. Nice try with the propaganda though vatnik.
@@valyshknee4203 LOL CLOWN
@@valyshknee4203 Quit believing russian bullshit propaganda.
Bieber and Dolik weren't yet available in 2014.
That’s the only reason
Lol
😂👍🏼
Yep can confirm.
🤣🤣🤣🤣.
Here's the number one reason. The Russia of 2014 would have not been able to handle the type of sanctions they're under today. The eight years gave Russia time to sanction-proof their economy.
I doubt that’s the reason why back then they probably wouldn’t have expected sanctions if they invaded full scale even if they eventually get harsher sanctions
they did get hit with sanctions from the West in 2014, they just weren't as severe. And if you compare the rate of inflation in Russia today to a year ago, I'd say their economy is not "proofed" against sanctions. There is clearly an effect. It's just not one that was felt immediately.
@@colbunkmust Russia had no alternative to SWIFT payment system in 2014. They've been building their own payment system ever since because they knew what might happen. Cutting off SWIFT in 2014 alone would have screwed them. They declined 2.1% in 2022 and are projected to grow this year. Considering they were "sanction nuked" that's pretty damn good.
@@schakiarligonde1736 I think they were hoping Ukraine would fight back to easily justify the war in their eyes, but Ukraine didn't take the bait at the time, or they weren't ready. Maybe installing a pro-kremlin president was seen as a possibility instead of fighting a war. To me putin is nostalgic of his USSR days and has lost his mind.
@@colbunkmust the sanctions they received from 2014 did prevent them from modernizing their fleet. That's why the T-14 Armata never went on full production and the AK-12 had been severely downgraded from its initial prototype.
2014 was the Sochi Olympics. Russia invested a fortune trying to build better ties with the
West. Putin’s mindset at that time didn’t want a return to the Cold War. Ukraine also had a lot of Russia supporters that could have in theory returned to power. They never did and one reason Russia invaded in 2022 was because most Russians expected to be welcomed, that they would return pro-Russian faction to power. Therefore, Ukraine's biggest change in 8 years wasn’t military reform but political.
💯💯
Uhhh you might wanna listen to Putins 2007 speech.
Also SWIFT had more grip on Russia in 2014 until they developed MIR for domestic transactions
Russia still trusted the west in 2014.
It's amazing what the CIA can achieve
Also the syria situation prolly was another reason russia didnt invade in 2014
I think the Russia reaction in 2014 was more of a knee-jerk reaction to the Euromaidan. Putin had been working to do what he is doing in Belarus, gradually take over the country through political and economic means. The Euromaidan revolt threw that entire approach out the window, and the entire invasion of Crimea comes across as a hurriedly thrown together operation that worked because of the complete disarray of the Ukrainian military. The Donbass invasion was another hastily thrown together affair, and the fact that Russia showed that it was directly involved was a misstep on the Kremlin's part. They lost plausible deniability, which may have turned the Russian populace against them.
Well, it didn't. The majority of Donbass supports Russia.
Wrong, there was a negotiated settlement regarding the Maidan between the E.U., Ukraine and the Russians. The settlement was a vote. Then the U.S.proxy ceased power then there was no boat. The E.U. fell in line, all of them recognizing the U.S. proxy government. That is why Russia calls it a coup, the democracy vote happened after the war was already in full swing and it was apparent that many in Ukraine was not accepting of the imposed upon them power.
Revolt? More like coup
Ukraine was nothing like Belarus and Yanukovych was nothing like Lukashenko. Ukrainian leaders all tried to strike a balance between Russia and the West. Otherwise yes, it was a blatantly improvised affair.
Not a kneejurk, he planned this for Years, Recently russias Deputy Zatulyn said openly that Yanukovich was installed by putin personally to take over Ukraine.
I believe Russia would have done better in the Donbass if they had, but taking Kyiv I doubt it. What I think would have happened would have been a “peace deal” brokered by Merkel and Hollande that would have give quite a bit of land to Putin.
The west didn't really care much until last year, Putin could have probably kept the occupied regions back then.
Russia respected Ukraine as a sovereign country until the US meddled in the Euromaidan. That was clearly where their relations broke down. All this overreaching to tie some sort of imperialist agenda to Russia is western propaganda. Russia wasn't looking for land, they just wanted their lease of Sevastopol intact as agreed with Yanukovych.
Merkel admitted that the talks were fake.
Ukraine had rly shitty army back then Russia would've crushed them and their president surely didn't wanted to fight either
Ukrainians would never give up land. There's not a single person not effected by war. The population overwhelmingly wants complete liberation of Ukraine without compromise.
They survived Holodomor, Soviet occupation, Nazi occupation, Austrian and Polish occupations. They will fight for their freedom
Many evident point out, that despite many success in 2014, Russian military still suprise by the capcity of their own weapon and training. Like how they have to revise the T-72B3 design just 2 year after it entered Ukraine in 2014. And 2014 is right in the middle of their 8 year plan to modernzied their army, the sanction in that year literary stop all of their miliatry spending and the public support is all time low. The oil price drop from over 100 dollar to under 20 dollar and the Ruble lost all of it value really sent people in panic mode in 2014.
I'm surprised you didn't mention the Minsk agreement.
What about the Minsk agreement?
@@rafflesmaos it was basically fake and a back stab
2:58 Yanukovych wasn’t removed, he fled, then was officially removed by the Ukrainian Parliament. This is an important distinction, because your wording makes it sound like a coup had taken place!
I guess, this was intentionally said!?
Its written in Malofeews strategy paper leaked in 2014, that the wordings coup or junta must allways be said in any PR worldwide and pro-Russian Propaganda etc…
No Yanukovych fled Kyiv because of the unrest and first went to eastern Ukraine. Then he went to Russia. He was removed by the Rada but it didnt hit the threshold for it to be legal even if everyone who was there to vote on it voted in favor to remove him. After the new government was formed Yanukovychs removal was deemed unconstitutional by Ukrainian law. Also us Americas did help train anti Russian political parties. Im listing them below.
Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) Party: Batkivshchyna, led by Yulia Tymoshenko, was one of the prominent opposition parties during the protests and political crisis in Ukraine. The party advocated for closer integration with the European Union and played a significant role in mobilizing support for the protests in Kyiv and other cities.
UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform): UDAR, led by Vitali Klitschko, was another opposition party that gained prominence during the events in Ukraine. Klitschko, a former professional boxer, emerged as one of the key opposition leaders and played a crucial role in the negotiations with the government and advocating for political change.
Svoboda (All-Ukrainian Union "Svoboda"): Svoboda, an ultranationalist political party, was also involved in the protests and political developments in Ukraine during that time. While not as prominent as the previous two parties, it had a vocal presence in the opposition movement and attracted support from some segments of the Ukrainian population.
@@EuroMaidanWasAnInsurrection Ok ok, but they used a special paragraph, dont remeber which one, to make it more or less official, thats why its called an act, not completely legal, but urgent and necesarry .... anyways, NOT COUP was ocurring ...#
And correct, he fled first to the eastern Uklraine, but then he went to Crimea. There he met with Malofeew and Girkin, to decide their strategy and how to invade Crimea and annex it...then he left to Russia and dissappeared for a while, later he made any "rehabilitation" and his son died, and so on...
But yes, after his fleeing, the Ukrainians went to his palast and found out, how deep he was involved in Russians influence and how many things he had stolen from them, from the state, during these years...and that was the reason, why they got even more angry...
Btw. later on, the riffles of the snipers and Berkut were also found in a lake...
I was coincidentally standing on Maidan by myself in november 2013. I saw, how Berkut came and punished the peacfully protesting students, almost killed them...then parents came and friends, and yes, the beginning was in 2013, not like in the rUSSIAN fAKED vERSION, written in this strategy paper, as i told you...and spreaded worldwide by PR, Prropaganda and more...
@@pat-2024 I just think Partitioning Ukraine should have happened. Ukraine in the west. Novorossiya in the east upon the removal of Yan. Which sounds horrible for Ukraine. But I think in that deal maybe Russia would have allowed the remaining Ukraine to join NATO since only a small amount of remaining Ukraine would be touching Russia border and Novorossiya would have been a puppet state of Russia. I'm American. I've researched this war because I remember being lied to about our justification for war in Iraq. Ultimately my position is in favor of egalitarian self determination. Meaning local choice over what government holds authority over them. If the east wanted independence from Ukraine I see no reason a UN backed, OSCE observed referendum should not have taken place. I do not consider the referendums Russia imposed to be credible but I do believe a referendum should have happened. I look at this conflict not in a red pill vs blue pill. I look at it like a referee. Russia invasion was unjustified. Ukraine banning political parties is unjustified. Most people just pick a side. Its annoying. Regardless if you are Ukrainian stays safe. Hoping this horrible war comes to a conclusion quickly so less people die.
@@EuroMaidanWasAnInsurrection Ok, look…I am German, not Ukrainian…I am also working on this since 2014 and it´s difficult to find neutral people like you, because often its ending in emotions and ideologies, crying. I am more a scientist and i also like the truth, and hate it, when I am lied.
My motivation of researching is based on the fact, that I visited my friend(s) in november 2013 in Ukraine. Later, in 2014 I knew my Ex from Luhansk. She worked as a model in New Delhi and when she turned back, the war was already turning very dangerous. Some of their innocent friends died. That’s why she fled to, first the next bigger city, then to Lviv to her sister. Her mother was fleeing to Moscow, not because she wanted, more because there she had a new job…
My Ex came to my house in 2015…and yes, for sure she was under shock and not able to speak every day, but once I told her, that it would be the best to partioning the country, because anyways, the east isn’t that important, poorer and underdeveloped…I thought…
But now I know, that I was wrong. And why? For many reasons.
I investigated lots of time, from the first moment, I saw Russian Roulette for example, with 111 dispatches, from the very first day on Crimea, shown every 3 days, what happened there, and from both sides.
The big problem is, that Novorossiya was the main goal of the Russian nationalists, Girkin, Gubarev, Borodai, Malofeew, Dugín etc….combined with the far rights, Russian Nazis, Wagner, Rusichs, Nightwulves, Serbian Cossacks and much more…these separatists activated and manipulated the citizens of the east…and provocateurs came to force manifestation, to sing Russia Russia, raising the Russian flag, instead to vote for indecency. For sure, also the fact that more and more weapons from Russia came into these regions. And for sure, the Ukrainian nationalists came to defend their territories, after what happened already on Crimea. Those sham referenda, were hold.
So, this was going on till 2019 when it became already a frozen conflict. “Only” 50 people were killed between 2019 and 2022, much less than the years before. However, in this moment, holding a referendum, in war times, when a high percentage of the normal citizens of Donbass neither are living there, is impossible. But Russia and especially the separatists never were satisfied with this frozen conflict and a new referendum, with independency. Because the strategy paper of Malofeew explains this very good., and the fact, that Russia started later with a full invasion to Kiev, also.
The complete plan of building Novorossiya means, more than Crimea and Donbass. And only one example for this are the water reserves for Crimea, when Ukraine owned the water….any possibility for the water supply for Russia would be too expensive or impossible to build in a couple of years…and the only solution for Putin, to secure this problem and save the live on Crimea, was, to occupy the access to this reserves. That’s, why I am also convinced, that Russians blew up the dam. Maybe not Putin, but some ultranationalists, realising, that the counteroffensive will be successful, and when Crimea goes back to Ukraine, it should be a problem at least for Ukraine, like a revange….
Btw. Odessa, Moldova were also into this plan…the gas pipline etc etc….bigger access to the Black Sea…
Conclusion: The referenda should have been hold, but not as a reaction of Euromaidan and fearing, that Ukraine and Crimea could have been already lost. And Dugín by himself said exactly this. Putin and the other responsible people should have held a legal referendum on Crimea, or send more troups after the annexation of Crimea, before Ukrainians, their government and nationalists could react and send soldiers and weapons. He said, that this was Putins biggest strategic mistake ever…
But it wouldn´t have been enough, to offer Russia or to the citizens of Donbass holding a referendum, because first, the ideologists for Novorossiya wanted a much bigger territory. And Russia wanted Crimea, and not losing their influence in Ukraine. And specially Putin not wanted to loose his power, when the Euromaidan succeeded and the risk of no reaction, would have been, that in Russia a similar revolution would have occurred…this was and is his biggest fear…and that’s why he over-reacted, and started to lie even more than ever before, with the excuses of NATO, NAZIS and RUSSOPHOPIA etc etc….
perhaps another reason is that putin wanted to get closer and closer to china before launching the assault as without the chinese backing they would have been too much alone
He underestimated how deep you would sink into the pocket of China.
What Chinese backing?
What chinese backing? They do little more beyond trading with Russia and not giving in to sanctions.
China is just proping up their economy and not even to a big extent, its not like Ukraine which will be heavily in debt to the countries training and funding it with hardware. Remember, the west arent giving them these equipment for free, they have to pay them back , something i cant see happening anytime soon if Ukraine wins since they will have to rebuild their country which will take decades
@@phunkracy China is the only reason why the ruble hasn't completely collapsed as a currency. They're providing military intelligence about Ukraine and Western allies. And China Is increasing trade deals which are greatly benefiting Russia's businesses and economy.
Ukraine didn't get as much NATO equipment until after 2014. The war in Donbas from 2014 to 2021 was a bluff on both the Ukrainian side and the Russian side where Ukraine didn't show their full strength fighting the Russian separatists and Russia didn't provide them their best equipment. Videos of the Ukrainian military in 2014 showed them using old Soviet equipment while the Russian soldiers in their Ratnik gear walked up to their bases in Crimea and took over without a shot being fired.
Yea I saw that VICE episode too.
Crimea was because the people did not agree with the coup of Ukraine. The only violence was actually the citizens against Ukrainian forces
There was no NATO equipment at all before 2014, no training etc. either. In 2014 the Russian army entered Ukraine to prevent the "separatists" from being totally defeated, and they used the only tactic they are good at: rocket and artillery bombardment.
I think the reason Ukraine didn't push harder in Donbas was because they didn't want Russia to do the same thing again. Russia didn't push harder because if they did they would have to admit that they were invading, and Putin had a better grasp of reality at that time.
@@alexanderm2702 Exactly but up until 2022 a T-90 tank never faced a Javelin or NLAW. Russia fell for the bluff that the Ukrainian military was stalemated by barely trained separatists with old equipment. The fact is that Ukraine had a stockpile of NATO equipment specifically designed to destroy Russian equipment.
@@dambigfoot6844 The origin of NATO is the defense against a major invasion with many armored vehicles and soldiers from Eastern Europe.
Very possibly because of the Russian economy that was way more fragile and dependent on the west, compared to now, I was hoping you would state this as a good potential reason.
Thanks for a great video! However you forgot to mention the other part of the preparation during these 8 years. Thats preparing the economy for the sanctions and isolation. I don't want to state, that Russia's economy is now effortlessly deals with sanctions. Back in 2014 or even 2015 without intern payment system such as "Mir"(alternative to Visa and Mastercard) the situation could have gone very fast out of control, especially considering that the political opposition was stronger back then. And stuff like "Mir" was brought in development, after the hard lessons of hyperinflation due to Crimea caused sanctions.
Spot on
Also Crimea was costing a lot of money especially due to lack of water. It cost 23 billion or so to integrate Crimea
"Effortlessly"? Based upon Russia's fake reported economic data?
I heard that all Western companies left the country, car production fell to zero due to lack of parts, airlines stole the leased planes and are now dismantling some to use for spare parts, oil is being sold to China and India for half price, gas exports have dropped off a cliff because the pipeline to China is at max capacity and no new ones are being built, 1 million highly qualified engineers and IT people have fled the country, the country is running out of bearings for railroad cars, etc. etc. I must be brainwashed 🤣
I actually found this video one of the worst on the channel because of same reason you stated. Economy aspect of war was complete ignored in video. Just look at the oil price in 2022 and 2014. Rusia only fights when oil is up. Same with monetary reserves. Other problem were russian asets in Europe, they had to be prepared and protected from sanctions (like transfering russian gas stations, in name only, to polish orlen company ).
One just doesn't launch a full scale war so easily from a diplomatic and strategic standpoint. It makes sense Russia didn't invade in 2014 since the situation in Ukraine wasn't something they were preparing for,fully mobilizing a military and preparing for a war can take months if not years.
It's possible Russia was worried about international backlash and various other geopolitical reasons back in 2014. That probably made them favour the ceasefire with Ukraine after quick and very easy victory in Crimea.
Russia was also quite busy in Syria in 2015-2019.
They then assumed the west would react similarly to them trying to topple Kyiv to the 2014 annexation. Most westreners aren't aware of the 2014 war because the media and westren governments didn't attend nearly as much attention.
the Russians didn't expect NATO armies to supply Ukraine as much as they have,and they probably didn't assume the US would fund the war and give advance weapons to Ukraine.
Russian intelligence concluded they'd win as easily as they did in 2014 and the international community wouldn't do anything but sanction them and condem the invasion.
Ukraine is about to recieve F16s now. That seemed out of the realms of reality for the Russians in 2022.
As you stated in the video during the 2010s the Russian army was also going through modernization and reforms,switching from a conscript to a professional military while also
renewing old equipment. This process required surplass spending and increased training.
Overall the war came at the right time for Russia,which had also happened to be much better time for Ukraine.
Ethnic cleansing for Khazariah.
@@catzor4795 😂😂what ?
Honestly, Russia has a better chance of invading Ukraine back in 2014 when the AFU was basically a smaller, more corrupt version of the Russian military. Half the units would unironically bolt to the Russians in in case an invasion happened and the other half would try to fight the invasion in the state it is in. The Ukrainian Navy in Sevastopol defected to the Russians when the latter got Crimea so that is how I see it. And even better, they don't even have to: If Yakunovich stayed behind and request CSTO Assistance to quell the Revolution, they would be inside Ukraine with no opposition from anyone due to it being legal.
All this highlights how much Russia had it good until they took Crimea from them. If they didn't do that, they would have Ukraine in their sphere and not resisting them as long as it did...
This!
and the president was pro Russia
Thanks, i have missed your uploads. Always unbiased and deliver great content 👍
Thank, and keep delivering 😊
Thanks for a great job.
Nice one, Covert Cabal.
Great vid.
Retaking a loss land is costly. The problem with Ukraine after the 2014 invasion of crimea is that they didn't not strengthen well their border with enough territorial defense force/border force and layered defensive fortifications such as trenches, barbwires, tank traps, and mines . And I think it would also be better if they acquire more on rapid and mobile platforms such as mobile truck mounted artilleries, drones( combat,surveillance, and kamikaze), and light armored vehicles.
THE POPULATION THERE IS 70% RUSSIAN PRETTY SURE THAT HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT
@@mrboxheadd748where?
Well considering that the Ukrainians didn't believe that the Russians would try to take the whole country, then they didn't feel the need to fortificate the whole Russian border.
lol I just remembered that they laundered like a few billions building 3m fence at the border
@@mrboxheadd748 Just forget that the majority of Ukrainian forces that stepped up to fight for Ukraine in 2014-2015 are those same people ;)
I think one key reason is that the original goal of Russia’s original smaller-scale invasion in 2014 was to secure Crimea as a base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Before then, Russia rented the Crimean port facilities from Ukraine, and the lease was due to expire in 2017, but the lease got extended to 2047 under Yanukovich. Some pro-Maidan people claimed that the lease extension was unconstitutional, so Putin, afraid of losing one of his most important naval bases, annexed Crimea and then supported separatists in eastern Ukraine as a means of drawing attention away from Crimea. Doing anything else wouldn’t have had a purpose for Russia back then.
As for Ukraine getting closer to the West, Putin probably thought that Ukraine’s situation would end up similar to Georgia’s.
Hi Covert, Great Question. 👍 looking forward to the answer.
Suggestion: when using file footage that's not directly related to the dialog... or just in general... could you include text with context? As much for interest as anything else!
I'd also consider the chance that Ukraine could have changed politically after the Euro-Maidan incidents.
A totally new government could fail and render the entire state unstable. Or a new government could have been elected that favors Russia or at least a balance between RU and EU relations.
War is expensive, often times unpopular and a massive risk factor. And considering the factors that you mentioned, such as the lack of time to prepare,
it would just have been too much of a gamble to invade then and there. If you always immediately jump at every sight of an opportunity without preparation, you are bound to fail sometimes.
Russia wanted to capture more European gas/oil market first to keep Europe hostage. So they waited for Nord Stream 2 to start to operate. Only once it became clear this will never happen, due to countless delays - then they started the war.
Spot on. It's well known that Putin and Merkel were on good terms. Also German business has strong interests in Russia. They made Nord Stream 2, hoping to have leverage on the German economy. But somewhere along the line, something happened and delays started to appear. The Russians got the message that with Scholtz, things are changing. I still believe that German business interests still wanted cheap Russian gas despite the invasion, but Nord Stream was sabotaged by USA/France/Northern Countries or a German inside job to make sure that the Germans would never go back to Russian Gas, despite the economic benefits.
It's quite possible that Putin had a plan with the gas money from 2014-2022 and the plan was dependent on the money. It's weird though that they let 300BN euros from that gas money to be frozen. It's weird with Russia and their way of doing things... so many mistakes. They've put a space station together, they can make good rockets and build a lot of good engineering stuff, they are not stupid people, but they literally royally f**ed up in Ukraine.
lol despite US sanctions, Nord Stream 2 had been certified in the European Union and was set to start supplying Europe by June 2022....don't spread lies...US sanctions have never worked ever..
I believe that. It's also really interesting how close Trump was to fracturing NATO and starting the Withdrawal process from Afghanistan so if the US dipped from NATO, Britain out of the EU; Putin could hold Europe by Nordstream because the US (theoretically because Trump went on 60 minutes and said he'd concede what Putin already held for peace) would just sit it out
@@ASummersetproductionChina probably would have slipped into taiwan and draw the US away, especially because thats the one enemy trump somewhat paid attention to, making it extra easy for russia to invade
@@ASummersetproduction Thats a bunch of anti Trump propaganda,will you ever get over your Trump deragement syndrome? He is no longer president and the war happend during Brandon's "presidency" not Trump's.
Thanks!
Great video!
Back then the Nordstream pipeline also wasn't built so Russia would probably not have the kind of energy security leverage that they did over western Europe
I think, Russia really wanted to make Minsk work - make Donbass autonomous inside the Ukraine, make Russian an official language etc. A big war was the last resort
Neither of those two points would have been the issue. Giving those regions a veto on foreign policy was the issue that made the entire thing fail. But I sure believe Russia would have liked if formerly convicted Pushilin, Girkin and the likes sitting in Donezk got a veto on Kiev's foreign policy😅
@@Vatnik_tschistilka well if they weren't the issue, they would've been implemented a looong time ago.))
Regardless of which specific criteria they wanted Ukrraine to fulfill regarding Donbass, I believe it was their hope that it would be done and no war would've been needed
@@imimpo9316 Well I would mostly agree that Putin would have preferred for Ukraine to hand over its statehood volenterely without the Russians having to try to make them.
@@imimpo9316 what Dombass ? 5000 russians brought by buses to make fake picture?
Spot on!
8:45 I love how you crack up while saying that line lolololol
Topic I always wanted to see but had no idea
There are lectures about this by Dr Karber. He said what happened in 2014 was option B. Option A was a 2022 style invation, yet was rejected because UKraine moved its brigades from the west to the east within 72 hours.
Where is he addressing this? Is there an article or video?
Ukraine should have been partitioned upon an agreement of Yanukovych resigning. Half the country stays Ukraine. The other half becomes Novorossiya. With Ukraine agreeing to that Russia could've dropped the no Ukraine in NATO stance. All you gotta do is look at the 2010 election and then look at Novorossiya and you will clearly see the country was politically divided along these lines. West wanted integration into EU and east wanted integration into ECU. Maiden happened. Us Americans helped anti Russian politically parties in setting up a new government. Russia viewed it as a western backed coup with Victoria Nuland. Arseniy Yatsenyuk was Nulands pick for Ukraine's President. Yatsenyuk was against Russia leasing Sevastopol Naval Base. That was a red line for Russia.
What brigades lol. Ukraine barely had enough forces to kinda subjugate separatists. And even then they were trashed with only limited involvement from Russian armed forces. In 2014 there were barely any troops to defend UA, that's why it had to rely on Azov and other volunteer corps
@@theprofessional1375 The lectures of Dr Philip Karber on youtube. He mentions it in a few of his early ones. He has alot details about the 2014/2015 battles, and the war before Feb 2022.
@@123Dunebuggy much appreciated.
Something this video doesn't mention is that Russia was placed under sanctions after 2014, by all means their economy was probably better before they annexed Crimea. Thus I believe they were just as much if not stronger in 2014 then 2022
Good topic
FINALLY ! You've Upload Again. 👌
Yeah. It’s weird how he is uploading less and less videos. You would think that with an on-going war that has a lot of ppl interested in, he would be making a bank with a ton of videos. But eh, I guess he has other stuff to do.
@@darthjarjar5309 Yah, Maybe Making Content is his only a sideline Compare to other content creator that creating content is there only source of living.
There were a lot of setbacks for Russia since 2014. 2014 Putin probably expected the T-14 family to be in serial production by now for one.
I think both 2014 Putin and 2022 Putin radically misjudged the capabilities of the 2022 Russian military.
They already had a lot of AE from earlier wars and the OE was really high so they didn't want to take too much land. Also once they take Crimea they get the reunification C.B on Ukraine so Putin probably wanted to use that to take the rest of the country with one war.
This isn't a fucking paradox game
Good questions
havent seen a raid shadows ad in a long time
Very likely they would have done better militarily. However, they were not ready in terms of sanctions at that time.
They didn't invade in 2014, because they secured their naval base in crimea and DPR/LPR was a stalemate. Ukraine was hesitant to join NATO and NATO didn't want to inflame the situation. They had everything they wanted .
But then Putin got bored or some shit.
back then he didn't have whatever dementia he has now. I think he really fell off the deep end during covid and that was why he went full invasion @@fungunsun1
Good stuff, but another reasons not mentioned is the minsk agreement
3:45 This is the nicest tank I’ve ever seen
I would argue Khizal has had a negligible effect on the war.
They are far too few.
That, and many have been recorded slamming into civilian infrastructure or even residential areas - which is completely useless militarily speaking. May as well have blown them up in the Black Sea.
Kinzhal - roughly translates to a "dagger". I don't know why you guys keep naming it "khizal" - is it some kind of meme about russians?
@@AlexGnok NATO citizens are generally less informed about Russian military equipment. Probably just an honest mistake.
@Fowler Freak I mean, a lot of mystery around Russian equipment has been revealed. War will do that.
In this case it is abundantly clear that Russia certainly has overstated the capability of their weapons of war.
@@AlexGnok no just auto-correct in this case.
Russia didn't have the money to resist sanctions as they are doing right now. Probably waited for Saudi having a de facto leader that isn't purely pro America, waited for everything to be set in place like insurance before going all in on Ukraine.
I remember it well i was not even 90 days out of the army.
Realy cool that 1/8 of your video is an ad!
Russia likely could’ve taken the eastern half of Ukraine, at least. Seizing everything up to the Dnieper would have given them a very strong naturally defensible border, control over the Donbas, Crimea, Kharkiv, and a lot of buffer space to boot.
Yeah but I think they were expecting genuine negotiations on demilitarising eastern ukraine and reassurances regarding NATO. Whereas crimea was non negotiable strategically speaking the fact crimeans wanted to be part of Russia was just a bonus for them
seizing and holding is very different.
an important fact forgotten is US role, 2014 was a different time where US not focused on china, US could have been way more involved then now and west in general and if they really wanted that support could have offset the power difference back then.
i think russia waited until west focused on china which is good on one hand but they didn't foresee how strong they got, how motivated they will became (one guy played huge role in giving moral by not leaving his people) and how that will motivated the west both the public and the gov to support them.
that war almost became a symbol for freedom and fighting for freedom and took life on its on, a lot of people are really supportive i think huge part of that is how they reacted to russia attack which made everyone hoping they win.
i feel replay that war without faces or story and just a big country bulling a smaller one it wouldn't have made people that interested in it there so many wars like that today, its more so how everything played made it a story people interesting in and wanting a specific ending for it
Idk if they would be able to do that seeing they’re military today I imagine it was much worse in 2014
I don’t think they would take all of Ukraine east of dneiper I think at max they take donbass crimea and possibly make a land bridge to Odessa
@@schakiarligonde1736 US was more involved in 2014, unlike 2022 where Russia was betting on US not getting involved to much.
*OF COURSE, they would.*
But Russia back then was way less sanctions-proof.
They actually didn't want this war. Believe it or not, like most people, Russians consider war a last resort.
I remember being at day care and seeing it on the news
2:40 end of raid shadow add
I think you really should have highlighted the fact that Girkin is a convicted war criminal for his actions in the MH 17 disaster.
I never understood who authorised civilian flights on a hot war zone.....
The criminals are also those who failed to close the airspace despite knowing full well that long range SAMs were active and an AN-26 of the Ukrainian airforce had been shot down a few days prior by the seperatists taking down MH-17.
@@ElGranDoTe1 It was not "hot war zone" but minor resistance. Until Russian military roll in and start killing civilians. Some random Rashist with AK-47 is not the same as Russian Buk SAM battery randomly roll in and take down civilian jetliners. Because they commanders are stupid to realize that they participate in illegal operations and not actual military conflict.
@@EL20078 And from where local citizen uprising take Buk batteries? E-Bay? No one expected that Russian military start shooting to cywilami Jets. So there was no reason to cancel flights. You literally repeat Russian propaganda now. Only person responsible for all those deaths is Vladowf Putler. And those directly involved.
Until a foreign power brought in their longer range surface to air equipment there was no real risk to aircraft.
Ehhhm. I would like to point out that the part about the reasons for the fall of Yanukovych and the whole civil war was very, very simplistic, to the point where it may give the impression that the Ukrainian people staged some kind of unjustified coup in the style of a third world country. Similarly, the Russian 'intervention' was not just about 'pushing out'.
1. The Ukrainian people have long sought closer relations with the West, especially the EU. At the time, Yanukovych was supposed to sign a key association agreement with the EU, but after talking to Putin, he suddenly started demanding that the EU compensate Ukraine for the EUR 500 billion it was about to lose as a result of the decline in trade with Russia if he signed the agreement. At the same time, Russia was blackmailing Ukraine through gas prices. Well, when Yanukovych announced that he would not sign the contract and that he had instead negotiated a favourable gas discount with Russia, it was too much for the Ukrainians.
They rightly felt that they were being held captive by a Russian puppet who, against their wishes, was dragging them somewhere completely different from where they wanted to go. And so the protests began.
These escalated, followed by several shooting incidents (it is hard to say who shot at whom first - both sides claim otherwise). Anyway, one sad day it went from "incidents" to Yanukovych's personal police unit shooting a crowd of protesters crouching behind wooden shields in front of the cameras of the whole world.
Well, then he realised he'd gone a bit overboard and his police, like himself, went to greet Uncle Vlad in the Kremlin. It was quite embarrassing - Ukraine woke up one morning and their president was missing.
I also made it VERY simple. And I skipped about ... everything except the ending. But I hope you understand that it wasn't about a democratically elected president governing to the best of his conscience and knowledge and suddenly being ousted by evil protesters.
2. A war with Russia masquerading as separatists
Above all, remember: the separatists would never have emerged if it were not for Russia. Russia sent its agents to Ukraine and they started running the show. And I don't mean "some" agents that are just speculation. Take a look at Igor Girkin's biography. He's not Ukrainian - he's a former FSB agent who suddenly appeared in Ukraine and started leading the rebels.
The war itself was insane, and stories were being written that should be made into movies. For example, the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian soldiers who defended Donetsk airport.
They were surrounded there after Russia suddenly entered. The Ukrainians defended the airport almost to the last man. Eventually, they were driven underground. There is a famous video on the internet that still breaks my heart: the last Ukrainian soldiers defending the airport stood at the barricade and sang a song. You can find the video if you type in "Last Stand of the Cyborgs at Donetsk Airport".
Or the sad battle for Debaltseve. During the Russian invasion - after Minsk II was signed, the Russians attacked the Ukrainian positions around Debaltseve and surrounded the Ukrainians. And then when the Ukrainians were retreating, they attacked them, despite the peace agreement they signed, and killed hundreds there.
To speak of this as a 'civil war', as some journalists do, is an insult not only to the Ukrainians, but to decency and reason at the same time.
(I am from the Czech Republic - so please excuse any inaccuracies).
Excellent summary. I'll just add that in regards to point 2, the The European Court of Human Rights back in January of this year officially recognized that Russia politically and militarily had control of the separatists in 2014, as well as participated directly in the fighting:
---
"Among other things, the Court found that areas in eastern Ukraine in separatist hands were, from May 11, 2014 and up to at least January 26, 2022, under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation," the court wrote in a press release concerning the decision. "It referred to the presence in eastern Ukraine of Russian military personnel from April 2014 and the large-scale deployment of Russian troops from August 2014 at the latest."
Russia had argued that the breakaway regions, identifying as the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR), were under the control of Ukrainian separatist forces at the time. It had flatly denied involvement either in attacks in eastern Ukraine - the basis of Ukraine's complaints to the court - or the Boeing 777 being shot out of the sky.
The court found that Russia "had a significant influence on the separatists' military strategy, that it had provided weapons and other military equipment to separatists on a significant scale from the earliest days of the 'DPR' and 'LPR' and over the following months and years."
@@rafflesmaos idk why the us and the ruskies are on opposite sides of this
This sounds like a cia mid east or central American operation
So just going to ignore the West and USA, NED putting their agents in western Ukraine or the intercepted phone call of undersecretary Nuland and Ambassador Pryatt literally talking about installing govt officials? Funny how the Euromaiden Revolution and the Arab Spring had so many similarities and ultimately were about regime change for USA oil interests. Then consider the shale oil found in the Donbas in 2012...yeah, it was all organic on the Maiden side and the separatists illegitimate and manufactured by the Russians. Maybe peruse some US history about regime change and get back to me when you realize both sides were proxies and one decided to oust an elected president and the other is protecting its military assets and ethnic population.
@@rafflesmaos not a legitimate court tbh
@@firasajoury7813 I'm sure plenty of thieves and murderers thought the courts were not legitimate. Didn't help them at all.
The court in question and its decision matters far more than you might ever think.
The dude flipping his four wheeler @ 08:13 lmao
My guess is they may or may not have done better. Bam! A full video of content right here😂
Three answers to make.....
1. Back in 2014 Muscovite leadership was marginally smart enough that toppling Ukraine over their revolution was a pipe-dream that would strain their military back then to the breaking point.
Same thing's going on right now too, but 8 years of generals pocketing most of the Russian defense budget and lying back to the top leadership about all the improvements their battalions made "on paper" has made it obvious.
2. Putin only listening to what he wants to hear made him more out of touch with the rest of the world. He bet all-in that the West being more ideologically fractured than it was in 2014 would mean he can finally expand the same plans he made on Crimea for the rest of Ukraine. That he believed he could hold all of Europe by hostage over his control of their winter heating. He and his oligarch cronies didn't prepare for such a quick, uniformed, and intense reaction around the world. They didn't believe that any new sanctions would bite them a tenth as hard as they have been. And they didn't think that the Ukrainian defenders would stay and fight like a monolithic army as opposed to running away out of self-preservation since Russians of all striped always pegged Ukrainians as pretty fractured and lacking of a real national identity.
3. Muscovites love working ideally like a tide. That's their military doctrine in a nutshell. Their year-long plan just to take a tiny city like Bakhmut is the best example of this- They advance, test the waters, then let up when they get reacted on, and encroach once again in hopes they keep ahold on even more ground than they did yesterday ago. That's the same how Russian "diplomacy" works- They promise/threaten everyone for the moon, and it's a success in their view when that still results in a positive concession of some kind, so Muscovy will keep on trying to ask for even more and repeat this process. Crimea was the testing grounds with what Muscovy thought they can get away with, so it was only natural they would make a play for the Donbas in the interim, keeping the Belarussian dictator in office despite him losing his own election, and then build up this big "military training exercise" for the rest of Ukraine.
All of this wanton death and destruction because there's gas around the Black Sea and the Muscovites didn't want a free Ukraine threatening their monopoly.
Any "truces" and territorial concessions only mean Muscovy will continue on their campaign of genocide until they can claw back all they lost from the old Tsarist Empire.
Since they're Gambit in Europe has been more costly than anticipated, they are focusing on other world regions like Africa. They're also realizing that they're partnership with China is benefiting China far more.
"Muscovite"
Banderist detected
@@serronserron1320 The Chinese Communist Party is working on the Chinese world, where China is the only world power and Russia is just a raw material colony for China. In creating this Chinese world, however, the Chinese Communist Party is making more and more mistakes that benefit the current world power, the United States.
I'm sure 2014 Ukrainian military, mostly volunteer, hilariously corrupt even compared to Russia, and roughly 20k strong would strain Russian military lol. This is copium of the highest grade
2 was the biggest surprise to me. Now the information was gathered by defectors who were close to the inner circle of Putin but it totally painted a different picture of him.
The man is basically a hermit who gets spoon fed by pyschophants and only watches Russian Media which surprise - tells him what he wants to hear.
I have no doubts he really thought Ukraine would see him as liberators. That NATO was really going to attempt to invade - which is nuts... As we see NATO is a wet noodle... There was no country on earth who seriously considered invading Russia because of MAD.
Yet his information is so biased that he really didn't know how corrupt it was. The money WAS suppose to go to things but when everyone and anyone is either looking the other way from the top down? All the reports say "we are in great shape! We did what we were told" - you get 2022 Russia... A paper tiger.
The age of the equipment doesn't bother me but the condition. People still don't know if their damn missiles and such are failing due to technical lies or poor maintenence. Makes me real nervous seeing as they have thousands upon thousands of nukes that absolutely require expensive upkeep to be useful and not cause accidents.
Anyway this war is for some man who wanted to leave a damn legacy. Putin should have sat back and watch the West destroy its self. Instead he galvanized his enemies and they are stronger than ever. Russia is Russias worse enemy. This "NATO made me do it" is ridiculous.
Should have just invested in his own damn people. Starting with world class education and fixing the specialized manufacturing situation which is also expensive. Make Russia look appealing for foreigners and for Russians to have kids.
You forgot the role that Wagner played in Ukraine supporting and arming those "separatists". Putin wants novorossiya borders back, he stated this many times.
100% LIE
Well they are mostly Russians living in Donbass Luhansk crimea why not let them be
Havent watched yet but its a surprise to look back and think they were prepairing this whole time.
3:42 nice
Couple corrections on 0:20. There is no evidence that Russia actually believed that Euromaidan was a CIA coup and Russia didn't send in their special forces after that, they were already pre stationed in crimea and seizure of crimea was well organised. "Pro russian protest led to a larger conflict" is also a wrong statement since a lot of so-called "pro russian separatists" had russian passports and were russian special forces/FSB agents Like Igor Strelkov, Motorola etc. So it was an indirect russian involvement (hybrid warfare if you like) that led to a larger conflict.
Bellingcat showed that the 'Crimea victory' medals were ordered in 2013.
In summer 2014 the regular Russian army did cross into Ukraine, to prevent the "separatists" from being completely defeated. I've heard (but only from one source) that the VDV and other elite units were defeated by the Azov battalion, and that's why Russia hates them so much.
Many Russian neo-nazis also participated in EuroMaidan, in fact Right Sector and Separatists shared the same exact same pedigree of Russians, Ukrainians, neo-nazis, policemen, military, criminals and footbal hooligans. FInally, the support for Euromaidan from the West was quite open and involving the usual array of US-funded NGOs, which for Russia is synonymous with CIA.
@@phunkracy so what are the conclusions from this? Far right organisations and NGOs participated/supported maidan protest means that this is CIA coup and ukrainians actually liked pro russian president and policy which was destroying economy and increasing corruption? This argument is meaningless, there is no causal relationship
@@phunkracy
Yes, I think a lot of context is lost with that distinction.
In fact it was an ex-CIA director(?) who said many years ago, that NGOs and other orgs (National Endowment for Democracy, USAID) today do openly what 25 years ago the CIA would have done covertly.
It's cleverly disguised as a different organization, giving plausible deniability, but its purpose is the same as before.
@@alexanderm2702 lmfao
Yes, militarily, Russia could have taken most of Ukraine easily in 2014. However, on the world stage it would have not have the diplomatic, political and economic support that it has now, most of this was missing including the readiness of its new weapons and modernization of its military and the means to advance to the level it is today. In 2014, it would have been easier for the west to take Russia down had it not pullback. Even though in 2022 (and onward) Russia is having a tuff time to take Ukraine militarily, it is also very tuff for the US to take Russia down militarily, politically, economically and diplomatically, or to push Russia out of Ukraine, or takeover Russia and divide it up, or to remove Putin from the Kremlin, etc.
So, yes, it looks like Putin made the best decision in 2014 to go away and fight another day. That day was 2022, and even though it is tuff militarily, politically, diplomatically and economically Russia and Putin are stronger than before. So, 2022 is a reverse of what would have happened had Putin not pull back in 2014. Instead of Russia decline, we are witnessing the decline of US and its western followers. Russia’s suffering and endurance in this war against the collective west has given hope to the leaders of many nations, especially since most of the world is sick and tired of the US threats and interferences in their nation’s sovereign affairs. As a result of Russia action (suffering and sacrifices) many nations found their balls to stand up to the mighty US without flinching (Saudi Arabia, South Africa, India, Turkey, China, Iran, etc.) and that is regardless to the fallout and consequences. Putin timing to take Ukraine in 2022 didn’t only make Russia strong and more respectable, but it also made BRICS stronger, very attractive and irresistible to the whole world.
You must be joking. The west has shown a united front which nobody exspected and yeah Russia economy isn’t dead but that was never the intention of the sanctions. They are bleeding Russia out for everyone to see. Russia stands very alone diplomatically and is losing on every front. They know if the sanctions stay in place they are done and so knows the rest of the world and BRICS really is just a group of countries who hate each other.
Brics is a joke, and so is your entire take, are you special ?
This is perfect discription and honestly it is a likely scenario
They had to have time to make more shovels
I think a major reason was the unstable situation in syria. Putin didn't know how that would end and his ally could defeated without enough Russian military support
It's probably because India and China, back in 2014 India and China economy is not as strong as it is today which means sanctions will hurt Russia far more than it does today. The problem is that Ukraine military also became more powerful overtime
2014:
1. As long as Ukraine has a frozen conflict it cannot join NATO.
2. Crimea in Russian hands keeps Russian Black Sea fleet alive and southern exit to the seas open.
3. Regarding mineral resources Donbass was and still is one of the richest areas in the world.
they didn't invade in 2014 because they thought Ukraine would stop with attacking the seperatists, but after the failures of minsk 1 and 2 it was clear they weren't going to stop so Russia went in, as simple as that, The US would've done the same if they were being actively genocided in Mexico or Canada
@@valyshknee4203 no one was "actively genocided" ... stop regurgitating Kremlin horsesh1t.
@@valyshknee4203 russian bot. You did well by copy pasting this comment haha
The west didn't care. Could have sent "peacekeepers" or started arming Ukraine from 2014 instead of waiting until last year.
@@valyshknee4203rusobot. Go home.
3:41.. Lol tank 420
Who else saw the dude flipping the quad at 8:13 😂😂
I get it that this is a military channel and not a geopolitics one, but the answer is more political than military oriented. The reason why Russia waited 8 years to invade Ukraine is that they didn't wait, because they never planned to invade Ukraine until 2021 or so. As late as December 2019 (during the meeting of Putin and Zelensky), Russia was still committed to a diplomatic resolution and at the time believed that they could return to the pre-2014 status quo where Ukraine would be friendly or at least neatural towards Russia and the Donbas would be given autonomy and in return, Russian forces would leave. They only invaded when their hopes of diplomatic resolution died out.
Lol, yeah fucking right. You're just gonna ignore Crimea huh?
During that entire time Russia continued to supply Russian separatists and spent billions on mercenary companies like the Wagner group in eastern Ukraine. This completely sabotaged peace talks with Ukrainian officials, if there ever really was an intention to go back to the pre-2014 conditions. Since 2014 Russia reorganized their economy, financial systems and trade agreements with countries like North Korea and China so that they could Withstand any sanctions from Western Europe. Maybe they didn't want to invade... but they certainly did build up their troops and maneuver politics for an invasion.
And everyone will gets a pink pony
"Little green men"
"Volunteers on vacation with their own personal tanks"... right...
*hypersonish Kinsal
It flies at hypersonic but cannot maneuver like the term hypersonic implies.
Yes
i just Respect when you dont take sides and you give us the truth big fan
What planet are you on? Covert Cabal is quite clearly on the side of his NATO propaganda masters. He constantly takes unwarranted jabs at any given non-NATO country and never once has he ever consistently claimed that a given NATO country of any sort of relevance was lacking in any real way. The dude LITERALLY downplayed the effectiveness of hypersonic missiles way back, claiming that whenever he heard people talking about it that they clearly didn't know what they were talking about because they liked to hype up how great it was. Meanwhile, in reality, hypersonic missiles have been used to great effect against the Ukies to the point where even much vaunted Western AA wunderwaffte have been annihilated because they just cannot reliable knock them out of the sky before they hit something important.
They would have definitely done better, Ukrainian forces were non-existent and defections were rife. Don't forget, the Ukrainian army was ill-equipped and largely deployed to the West of the country and many of its elite units came from the Donbass areas. Love him or hate him, Girkin is right in this instance. As for the reasons of not interfering, Russia didn't invade because Putin is a businessman, he wants to do business with the West. Crimea was easy to take and ripe for the taking, he just couldn't resist using his new select combat ready units and he didn't want to risk losing his naval base. Ultimately he signed the Minsk agreements, hoping to freeze the conflict ,call it a day and continue doing business. The Euromaidan, caught the SVR totally unawares, which shows how lax they were regarding the situation in Ukraine, the West pulled a fast one on him.
nice
This was a very good question. The answer, it was fine.
It's outrageous that Ukraine didn't become a member of NATO in 2004.
Is it? Even with lenient standards, Ukraine was far too corrupt to be let in.
Also as far as honoring Western values is concerned, polls from 2008 show that only 17% of Ukrainians wanted the country to join. But you're advocating for it to have happened even earlier?
I guess one pro-Western government is all you need, fuck the people's will.
Hell even now Zelensky has said that membership would be determined by a national referendum, something no other country has done thus far.
Of course it's convenient to say that now that the sentiment has changed, I just wonder why the government in 2004 never wanted to hold a national vote.
If I remember you can't join nato while you're in a war, that being the separatists
@@start2957 that wouldn't be an issue until 2014
@@start2957 they weren't in a war until 2014.
@@stevenjohnston7809 there's still other reasons but I dont know exactly why
Putin didn't full-scale invaded Ukraine in 2014, because he invaded it in a hybrid-war way in 2014, he thought he would be able to politically take Ukraine over through this Minsk process.
About NDT I think they didn’t do it because they had their ultrasonic sensors that probably they thought do a similar thing. Also when the sub was finished it probably was fine, it failed only after multiple dives. So the first NDT would have found nothing anyway.
Back in 2014, a good portion of Ukrainian navy had pro-Russian sympathies and defected over to the Russian side, thus sealing Crimea's fate.
While Ukraine has been nominally indepedant since 1991 but it truly came alive for the first time in 2014 since atleast the early 20th century
There were other significant moments before then, take the Orange Revolution for example. Ukraine is a good example for how much a country can achieve (slowly, but patiently) when it has a vision of where it wants to move to. Of course Ukraine is not a perfect country, but they're getting there. This war is just another obstacle to overcome for them.
@@lucemiserlohn Putin is doing an outstanding job for Ukraine's nation-building process. Putin's henchmen are committing war crimes en masse in the very regions of Ukraine that have historically been the least Russia-critical and most anti-EU.
@@lucemiserlohn i love UA but it literally achieved nothing since 1991. Its high time they change it but the state itself is a burning heap of trash and Ukrainian citizens voted with their feet the moment it became feasible to leave it
I should add that Russia had an upcoming football world cup in 2018 and didn't want to fuck that up
Of course
Done better? Sure! The question is why didn't they? Because of the weak upper management. Or rather inability to make hard choices. The same upper management who couldn't get the job done in 2022. Anyway, most of the folks here wouldn't know anything about that.
We have diplomatically defrauded moscovy in Minsk, that's what prevented the full invasion in "14
War is complex.
My grandpa used to say "once you start punching don't stop otherwise you'd give them a chance to punch back"
The best descriptive term for Russia’s war on Ukraine would be that Russia is conducting a mercenary war. It doesn’t have to do with ideology or existential survival, it’s a corrupt autarchy clinging onto power, hoping to annex a lesser nation purely for reasons of ostensible gain.
I don't know why Russia didn't invade sooner, but I believe they did when they did to strike Ukraine before it could grow stronger.
The Azov Brigade kicked the Russian VDV out of Mariupol.
@@cfosnock There was never any VDV in Mariupol....
Not in 2014 nor even in the invasion.
@@michaelstodovski2219 I beg to differ...can you say "Little Green Men" BTW your ignorance is telling...the VDV were massacred at the Hostomel Airport...just check the obituaries for the 11th and 31st Guards Air Assault Brigades. SMH
@@cfosnock Bruh, hostomel and mariupol are more than a thousand kilometers away.
@@michaelstodovski2219 LOL you said "nor even in the invasion." LOL now that your ignorance is caught you change the subject to distance.
We dont have to know, we only have to be happy that it didn't happen
There is one major factor that was missing in video - support of Belarus. Probably Lukashenko was not supporting idea of invading Ukraine and russia didn't have ability to strike Kyiv from that direction
In 2014 Russia would have steam rolled Ukraine Even 2022 Russia should have focused everything in East first
I agree but I would have focused everything at kiev cut that off the war would be over
@@Ghastly_Grinner That would lead to the destruction of the Russian army. North of Kiev was where the swampy terrain bogged down the Russian army. And their wounded faced a death certain because wounded Russians had to be pulled through Ukrainian land and cross back to Belarus.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD the Russians didn't go in with enough men I wouldn't have sent any men south or to the east of Ukraine instead three prongs move down from Belarus cut the highways train lines etc move to cut off kiev. The problem is they didn't have the manpower to do all three pushes at the same time
@@Ghastly_Grinner north of is super constrained. Remember 40-mile long convoy? Making it 80 miles wan’t solve the problem, but rather add to it.
@@xanukraine get a map the Russians could have attacked along the entire length of the Belarusian border the point is to cut kiev off from nato just draw a line cutting it off and Russia would win
Yanukovych wasn't removed exactly, he fled and refused to return.
He was chased out by far right groups that were in contact with the west. He would get killed.
There's theory - quite interesting - that in 2014 Russians planned far more drawn out and low key action, but was surprised by decomposition of Ukrainian Forces in Crimea and (reportedly) improvised following through.
Well in 2014 Putin wanted to boost his approval - it was one of the lowest ever at that time, so limited operations with really big gains achieved that goal. Going for full scale invasion would tank his support even more, exactly the opposite of what he (probably) wanted to change at that time.
I dont think 2014 would have been an easy fight for Russia.
But in 2022 if Russia had taken Hostomel airport AND held it. This war would have been much different. At least initally.
Right now though, Russia is in the worst case scenario. They are losing the war and retreating while at the same facing attacks within their own borders. The case can be made for a civil war happening in Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war, and with Ukraine joining NATO.
makes no difference . There is no safe way of landing Il-76 on that tarmact with an active mig-29s flying around
1. Russia is not losing this war. No matetter what western media said. They still very dangerous enemy.
2. Ukraine will not join NATO anytime soon. Definetly not during the war, and perhaps not within 5 years after it end, assumnig, they win.
3. Russia is very far from civil war.
They are in a very bad spot, yes. From what apperad to be 3-5 days Special Military Operation turn into long and costly war of attrision.
True the airport was in artillery range and air defenses would make landing transport planes harder
@@dukenukem8381
Debatable.
I mean they did have airborne troops dispatch from helicopters, with the airfield switching hands several times but were defeated in the end. IF they had taken the airfield, AND the army made serious gains from the east, they MIGHT have had a chance. Obviously they didn't, but had things gone in their favor, bringing in SAM systems/shoulder launched missiles in conjunction with RuAF would have made a UA counterattack almost impossible. But the RU military is a corrupt, incompetent joke so nothing would be achieved (thankfully).
Russia gambled on shock and awe blitz but failed in part of their incompetence -- lack of fuel, food, and dry rotted tires for starters.
Hold Hostonel - and then what? Even if they successfully establish security zone around airport (and that’s a big “if”)…
Fight for Kyiv ~3 million city in street-by-street fashion, like in the Mariupol?
Given the Russian attrition in latter, they just hadn’t enough troops to do that feet.
Jesus Christ. They did invade in 2014. You just said that. Reupload this with a different video title please. I like your videos but that title is false.
Anyone else see the 420 dank tank?
Dude you gotta post videos more
I will double my comment here so more people would see it.
I am sorry , I am Ukrainian and your first minute has many mistakes.
1) Yanukovich fled while being outside Kyiv in Mezhyhirya Residence and later was kidnapped by russian black sea fleet. Most likely all preplanned and coordinated with moscow. With Crimea occupation already underway
2) Government stayed the same. Parlament, ministers etc. Yanukovich own party voted a vote of no confidence and was in minority thus power shifted to another party.
3) EuroMaidan was ALL UKRAINIAN EVENT. Not just western Ukraine Lol. Eastern Ukraine participated aswell.
4) Separatists never existed. Only sabotage groups from moscow and some collaborators. Girkin himself was stating at the time that he opened up prisons and received very little in volunteers. Then strange people from caucasus "appeared". And were ultimately defeated leading to russia invading with regular forces.
5)Russia wouldn't do better in 2014 because their army was much worse than 2022 army, with only 20 ka-52s and 100+ t-72b3s compared to 2000+ t-72b3s in 2022. Very little cruise /iskander missles etc no su-35s etc etc
Outcome would be the same.
Well said. I love the subtle pro-Putin bias at the beginning: "Russia believed it was part of a CIA coup". Russia *claimed* they thought it was part of a CIA coup as a talking point to delegitimize the pro-western movement, which they knew was actually popular and organic, and to justify their seizure or at least parts of Ukraine. You can't belive anything Putin's government says and certainly shouldn't report it at face value.
Хрень
Thanks for your input.
How does your knowledge and your point 3) square with many calling maiden a couple on a legalistic technicality?
Can't remember what it was exactly, like not enough voters etc. It was even blasted by then by Russia, having their reaffirment to maintaining democracy obviously.
You seem to point to just Yanukovich bailing, but some here are basically saying whole "true" Ukrainain government was exiled etc.
@@gebys4559 1993 shooting tanks in russian parliament was a coupe.
Yanukovych was hiding in russian naval base in Crimea. Then his own security detail visited him and gave him a note through a russian soldier asking him "does he need government security detail?" He answered with a note - "I no longer in need of security detail" and stayed in the base refusing to come out.
Therefore it was not a coupe it was Not Fulfilling Duties of Presidency by Yanukovych which led to his OWN party to vote a vote of no confidence. Shifting the power to another party.
Guys, don't search up on what Victoria Nulland spoke about in her telephone conversation....