How The Ukraine War Is Going To End: Anne Applebaum
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- Опубликовано: 30 сен 2024
- On today’s episode of Leading, Rory and Alastair are joined by American-Polish journalist and historian Anne Applebaum, to discuss:
What constitutes an autocratic state?
How did populism come to dominate global politics from 2012-2014?
When and how will the war in Ukraine end?
00:32 Anne’s relationship with Eastern Europe
02:34 How Putin made Russia a dictatorship
05:31 ‘Londongrad’ and Russian influence in the West
23:51 Being married to the Polish foreign minister
25:30 Populism and the link to autocracy
30:12 Viktor Orbán
36:28 How does the Ukraine war end?
38:18 How social media changed how we talk about politics
43:45 Debrief
Podcast Episode: 100
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I'm a Brit living permanently in Poland, Polish family. We in the west have been so very naive about Putin and we should listen more to Poland about how to deal with him.
How !?
Also Navalny said Crimea is Russia up to 2023
@@goenzoy712 When Russia invaded Crimea, pretty much Poland was the only country supported Ukraine and said Putin will not stop there if allowed to get away with it.
@@juliangilbert5465 John McCain been saying it as well in 2014. The way US, UK, Germany and France reacted to the 2014 events is what brought us now to the current war. I used to have great respect for Obama and Merkel, only two years ago did I understood how unworthy of it they were. Too bad John McCain was running with someone like Sarah Pallin as his running mate, maybe with someone else he would have won the elections and we would have been in a different reality now (maybe Trump wouldn't have become a president either in that reality).
There's an acute lack of good leaders in the democratic world currently...
ruclips.net/video/HLAzeHnNgR8/видео.htmlsi=YUuuEhUk7x-go3Vy
Me too. Don't work tho. What do you do here?
@@jasbindersingh2441 I've been here for 20 years. I translate and teach business English.
What a brilliant woman.
Yes
I'm a Pole living in the UK and I'm a big fan of your channel. What a treat to listen Anne Applebaum on your show. She's such an incredible journalist with a phenomenal insight into the Eastern European politics.
I'd very much like you to add Radek Sikorski to your list😊
one of the best interviewees on the show!
Amazing interview and super insightful guest
Dont waste time asking historians to predict the future! Ask them to help you understand the present through their knowledge of the past.
To stop this needless ruSSia war against Ukraine payments for ruSSian oil and gas needs to be placed into an escrow account with the attachment payments is due when the ruSSian military has departed Ukrainian soil
Correct
Very interesting interview. Very well argued by Anne Applebaum.
Wow, Anne comes with a tale of dirty little russian bots, as evident from the comments😊 surely she's done something right 👍
They come out SO quickly repeating the same stuff, it’s becoming rather obvious
I support Ukraine in its war of freedom and I don't like Russia but my opinion is that Anne Applebaum is a low level intellect and a poor historian.
I'm not sure, I think she was pretty on the money most of the time
Yes, everyone who isn't wet for nuclear war is a bot.
No, Anne is pretty full of BS….. the kind of BS that made them believe the West can provoke war with Russia, and then Russia will take the bait, then the West would sanction Russia, then Russian economy will collapse, Putin will then be overthrown, and Alexei Navalny would come to power and the West will have another Boris Yeltsin Russia to rape and pillage!!!!
If we nationally admit to ourselves that we are functioning as the money laundering capital of the world, that we are essentially creating the conditions which allow these people to do what they do, what then? Our idea of ourselves will be shattered and we shall be forced to develop a new one.
I'm not opposed to this. In principle anything which can be destroyed by truth should be. A national myth which doesn't survive contact with direct sunlight should be discarded immediately.
Understatement considering the rise of groups like the Taliban and the success of AIPAC/USA in the Israel war on the ME.
with all due respect to your contribution to oligarch money laundering, but you will never beat Switzerland, Monaco, Cyprus or many others in this context 😀
attack of the Kremlin bots!!
Thank you for finally addressing our ‘enabler’s’ in the city and their chums in parliament who oil the wheels of international dirty money and tax avoidance- indeed it makes our preaching on democracy and the importance of institutions look hypocritical- trickle down economics from an engorged elite will never pay the nations bills when extreme wealth is allowed to trickle out off shore-
The power of money... plus power corrupts
Not many people know the meaning of: Maskirovka. A Soviet mindset (deceive, denial and disinformation) Maskirovka has evolved to sow uncertainty, doubt and anarchy in Western countries. Putin was raised as a Soviet (1952-1991). Putin's father served in the NKVD (Political Police, Soviet repressive system aka Gulag). Putin wanted to join the KGB at 16, signed at 23, ended as a KGB colonel. Putin is a master at Maskirovka.
The book Nothing_Is_True_and_Everything_Is_Possible describes this phenomenon.
My Ukrainian mother RIP never trusted Russians so it is not a surprise to me therefore. Thank you for explaining it in these comments
Love her,
Wish this had been a 2 hour interview
Anne Applebaum was brilliant and appropriately low key.
You two, on the other hand, were two old gossips, talking about her as soon as she left the room rather than speaking to her face.
Many thanks again Anne, from Ukrainian diaspora in Canada
Absolutely! I almost wanted to “unlike” the video after listening them saying all things after she left. 🤦🏻♀️
What is this deal with you both writing off Ukraine? The Russians creep forward by throwing away their soldiers' lives and burning through their armor and artillery, and you say 'yep, they're winning'? That's just poor analysis. War doesn't work like that. Get an education worthy of the subject and your influence.
Daniel Davis deep dive
It’s a war of attrition now
Stewart is actually an authority on Russian history under the Czars. 'The Great Game' between Russia and Great Britain in the mid/late 1800's.
As for Campbell, I gather his expertise includes Iraqi WMDs dossiers and the 2005 British and Irish Lions Rugby team apparently (I'm being sarcastic here).
They are right. Russia is winning this war. Of course, no one here has Russian citizens in mind, the Russians have always been the losers, regardless of the outcome of the war their country waged. Putin's Russia wins. Putin and his gang. He cares little about the lives of Russians, their prosperity or sanctions. He only cares about going down in history as the next Russian "great" conqueror. No matter the price. Like Stalin or Catherine the Great. And he is well on his way to doing so. On the other hand, you have the Ukrainian nation. As such, they lost when the war broke out. Now it is a fight to minimize losses.
Once again: the fact that Russians are dying like flies on the front does not matter here, because this war was never intended to protect Russian lives.
...the soft bigotry of low expectations. Excellent
What a pearl!
Hummm... I was a student visiting Russia and Ukraine in '79... KGB tails and visits and underground dissidents and all that.... incredible experience...
🎉very interesting interview. As former judge from Russia, who had to flee from regime, I have to add, that’s the main reason for Putin to be keeping the war, it’s that’s the way to keep his power. He managed to ensure Russian people the there is enemy for Russians, around Russia, especially in Ukraine. And most people believe him. The reason for starting this war, it’s to show to world he has power, to expand its, as well as to show all the world can’t ignore him.
Short man syndrome😂
"War is the health of state."
When you say " The reason for starting this war, it's to show to world he has power, to expand its, as well as to show all the world can't ignore him. " Really ? Expanding territory and getting attention :, you think that is his motive ? Let me say to you, the president of any country would not allow NATO on his doorstep. Imagine if Ukraine became a member of NATO the US would build military bases on the Ukraine border or Crimea, Do you not see this as a security threat? Imagine having a US military base on Crimea next to Sevastopol where the Black Sea Fleet is stationed? Is it any wonder that Putin took Crimea? Putin tried for 20 years to have Russia's security concerns addressed, to no avail . The US goaded and provoked and dismissed Russia's concerns and failed to honour nuclear treaties. Russia is fortunate to have Putin, he has been a steady hand on the tiller, in an ocean of deceit and trickery.
It’s just excuse for people. What’s happened when Sweden and Finland joined NATO? Nothing Russians government said that’s ok, no problem. 20 years ago Putin himself asked to be accepted into NATO, they didn’t and he harbored a grudge. Thanks to Good, there in the NATO no place for crazy dictators
And it’s tales for the putins electorate about security concerns, I think it’s sounds ridiculous for audiences of this channel, although it’s revealing, what’s Russian propaganda about
Anne has much important to say; we need to pay attention rather than disparage.... The problem of corruption is a huge problem, very widespread. We need to address it somehow.
I lived in Europe in the early 80’s & was in Leningrad in 1983 & went through Checkpoint Charlie to East Berlin in 1984. Went back through Siberia to Moscow in the late 90’s when so much had changed. I too am grateful to have experienced Soviet, Cold War Russia & Europe in person. It explains so much, but cannot be adequately described.
I think Anne Applebaum made some very good points. I also think that RS has been unfairly critical of her. Everyone knows how Cleptocratic autocracies award their stooges. If your oblivious to how that happens your fairly naive or daft to be honest. I still remember how RS praised the Turkish government after the earthquake having visited the region. That might have been a clue for that.
To stop this needless ruSSia war against Ukraine payments for ruSSian oil and gas needs to be placed into an escrow account with the attachment payments is due when the ruSSian military has departed Ukrainian soil
You two sound pretty hard on Ann Applebaum? Do you have a problem with highly gifted intelligent women?
If you follow these two, you'd know they are very pro-womens rights. They do ask tough questions to their guests to try and get unconventional and genuine answers, but you cannot blame that on misogyny.
Your expectations of what Appelbaum should discuss (financial crisis, China, Middle East...) in such a short interview are greatly exaggerated. Also the complaint that she did not make strong, personalised accusations about international corruption. It is precisely the difference between an academic and a politician; she weighs her words, she approaches words responsibly. If you want more in-depth analyses of political life, invite fewer politicians and more people like Appelbaum.
Well said. Thank you.
So the journalist comes on with insightful analysis that opens doors about how pro-democracy actors might respond to the challenges, and the politicians tell us how enjoyable that was, let's talk to Victor Orban...
Has TRIP given up on politics along with the rest of the political class?
Mafia is the goverment is a fact in Hungary, just trace the growth of wealth of Orban's family, or his
neighbor Meszaros, his son in law etc, etc
It's a fact in every fascist oligarchy - the gangsters take over and suck all the wealth to the top - Putin's yacht alone is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Excellent discussion. I'd recommend reading Nicholas Shaxon's "Treasure Islands: uncovering the damage of offshore banking and tax havens"
Another excellent podcast. Listening from Taiwan it’s interesting to hear western commentators perspectives on other countries. I lived in China for ten years and I don’t think Xi Jinping is given enough credit for routing out corruption. Not really comparable to other autocracies.
Taiwan has been under the threat of China since 1949 but it hasn’t stopped them developing a successful democracy and economy.
Andropov's picture was a classic KGB signal of the "silent coup" of 1982 when Yuri Andropov became the General Secretary of the CPSU. The first time when the head of the nation's security service reached the pinnacle of power in the USSR. The 2 factions vying for control was the Red Army's version of the Military Industrial Complex versus the KGB since Brezhnev's take-over in 1964. Putin & Co. are continuing that tradition since 1999.
Got to know her from the recommendation of Timothy Snyder, brilliant podcast lads. Would also love to see you sit down with Timothy for a discussion about Ukraine.
thanks a lot, excellent interview. To reduce Putin support, it is important to remain strong and all governments to confirm that no land from Ukraine will be given to Putin. None, zero, zip. This will create strong doubts amid the russian leaders who supported Putin.
Phenomenal interview; what an impressive and authoritve insight on so many fronts. And thank you for letting us hear her views so well which only required your well judged and restrained questioning. Loving your work Gentlemen as always. Great guest and hosts.
Wow, Anne has clarity and ease around her subject that creates a gestalt, a crystallisation of the current global situation, going forward for the next decades, and somehow, now, it all seems clearer and less threatening, we are beginning to understand the enemy and the political tools at their disposal, we are becoming less naive and more able to fight back, it's very early days but there seems room for hope, this global phenomenon is now understood, policies and collective action will follow.
The enemy? - The Wolfowitz doctrine and Project for the New American Century. Over 20 years of interminable US led wars and sanctions, often riding roughshod over International law - killing and displaying millions.
Anne is such a great analyst! Thanks for providing her with a platform for sharing her expertise!
Really Really enjoying listeing to her talk about so many topics. Thank you so much! We need more of this. Please!
These two guys were in government administrations that let this happen
They personally have a lot to answer for and have blood on their hands
Simple fixend tax havens
Anne probably wouldn't be the best guest to untangle how western far right became so pro-Russian, as it is not only a story of political influence, but also of culture war, and even though she mentioned Orban being good at addressing people's anxieties and was very poignant about fear of modernity, she doesn't seem to get into anti-establishment populist mind so easily. Perhaps good for her, but I think it would be great if somebody would tell Rory and Alistair to their faces in what ways, aside for global financial crisis, former political elites, them included, basically rolled out the red carpet for pro Russian populists of the future.
The shocking wealth inequality in the USA and Britain, the essential writing off of the less wealthy majority of the population, these are not due to some foreign influence (even if foreign oligarchs benefit from this-and in the case of housing costs-make the problem worse). "Democracy" has become a rather slippery term-and a relative one. Of course, while there are many examples of republics-good and bad- there are few examples of central government democracies-because, really, such a government has historically never existed. The only way Athens was "democratic" was by restricting the franchise to native born men who had served in the military- slaves, foreigners, women and those who never served in the military were not eligible. Is this kind of "rigged democracy" really the best form of government? The USA can be considered a "corrupted plutocratic republic" with (also!) some genuinely democratic features-as well as a military/industrial complex and a global empire (hey, that didn't stop the republican Romans!). Britain, if anything, is even further from a democracy-it is definitely not a republic at all, but rather this "constitutional Monarchy".
The rise of Londongrad was under Johnson as mayor, who was a good friend of her husband, so she probably didn't want to get into too many details about how exactly Russian money got so easily into the city.
That’s not true at all, it was many years before.
I have deep respect for Anne Applebaum, but the title is misleading. Nobody discusses the specifics of how the war is going to end - just the usual talking points.
I really like her, and I really like Sikorski, later I learned they are married. LOL
They are a real power couple. I wish I could listen to them privately discussing politics
Among many democratic principals the underlying - MUTUAL RESPONSIBILITY of electors and selected ...
What is a person worth in Hungary today.Conversation with pastor Gabor Ivanyi.Before orban sits with you at the same table.
The Ruso-Ukranian War is about whether Ukraine will be apart of NATO. Jens Stoltenberg said as much recently. For her not to acknowledge this basic fact shows that she is either not honest or does not understand this war. For people living Eastern Europe who wants Russia to be defeated or to go away, good luck with that dream. Your choice as to whether to fight Russia, but do not call me, an American, when you get in trouble. My thought: enjoy Article 5, focus on growing your respective country, and forget about Russia.
Superb. I'm blown away by this lady. Totally absorbing interview. I have just ordered her latest book. Great guest, great interview.
Anne has always been excellent. Thanks for delivering a clear and straightforward message.
That was way too short. I could've listened to her for hours.
Disappointed that both Rory and Alistair coulodn't bring themselves to condemn Johnson/Ledbedev more harshly and acknowledge just how corrupt the British political sysstem is. We have a Russian Oligarch in the House of Lords, FFS! Where is Starmer's 'reform' of the Lords?
It’s time to take away the Kremlin’s ‘get out of jail free card’ we have so generously let it use.for 33 years.
Table the resolution declaring the truth - that Rusia is not "in" the U.N. Then the U.N. can perform it’s role of maintaining peace and security. And start honouring the 20 year old Responsibility to Protect, with more than lip service.
The Russian oligarchs must have preferred the elegance, high status, aristocratic history and history of having been the leading empire in the world that G B had and still showed. By comparison, the best America could offer was robber baron mansions only dating back to the 19th century and Mafia world in NYC and Miami, especially.
Excellent program -- Anne and the two hosts. Very informative. Great exchange. Thanks.
Good evening from the SF Bay Area. I always appreciate hearing Anne speak and am happy to discover your podcast. Hope to hear more.
I haven't read her books but I wonder if she's ever read Kristen Ghodsee's and Mitchell Orenstein's book "Taking Stock of Shock: Social Consequences of the 1989 Revolutions"?
7:36 its a german problem not to want ww3? Am I in the twilight zone, why is every western leader and thinker so keen for ww3 there is not one person that says de-escalating is the right thing to do.
Weird tho, how you guys run an interview with her - then spend 10 minutes afterwards criticising things she didn’t say!
Too polite in your interviewing?
Thanks for very interesting and important conversation ...
I have to apologize to Anne Applebaum because I mistook her for Victoria Nuland and wrote some really bad things about her. I largely disagree with her but she was the author of the piece in Foreign Relations about Boris Johnson breaking the Zelensky-Putin negotiations early in the invasion - and that deserves my applause.
Always liked Anne Applebaum's analysis and her talks. A great chat well done chaps.
Ok so I used to work in Republic or Georgia as a border monitor in 2004. And I saw the conflict brewing on both sides.. All of the GRU dude thought I was agency cause I had worked in u.s. Embassy in Moscow so o took all they heat for the Dia dudes. Anyways I would talk to the gru cats as having grown up during the cold war.. I was geared to whack them if need be.. But I learned a lot from them.. They are rational mostly. They aren't trying to blow up the world . I also saw them making jokes about putin. Onedudeeven impersonated him.. I was laughing my ass off. The problem the west has is act like it has all the power bit the reality is not as much as jt think it does
Bloody marvellous guys - Thank you, that was fascinating 🙌
Once she's married to Sikorsky 2 Russian intelligence service has been doing the same thing that they always do since the romanovs so they they aren't doing anything different
I have watched Ann give many interviews on her latest book where she goes into a lot of detail which you say is lacking here. You have a time limit and she and you can only address so much. I commend people to watch other of her interviews to fill in more detail or better still buy her book.
[43:43] Orban and others with similarly grandiose ideas, ought to be wary of the camel's nose under the tent, of a resurgent Germany . . . ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Outrageous to equate Israel with Russia and Saudi!!
What happened to the simple invitation to ask "tell us what the gist of your book is?"
Inbeded NATO agency propagandist.
Great speaker and great interview. Thank you.
Please, please keep up this level of discourse
This is priceless right now
Would like to have heard more on how she sees Russsia being run as a mafia state.
When is Stewart going to go away? I hope it's soon. 🎉
I find the rise of so many dictators is worrying to say the least.
interesting, alas the smaller man has very strange voice, hard to listen to, such closed it
Can't wait to watch this, Anne's book on the Russian-induced Ukrainian famine was a real eye opener. By coincidence, I read it just a couple of weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Hope she will write about the Ukrainian NAZI’s in the Galician battalion as part of the SS who slaughtered 50k+ Poles
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_Waffen_Grenadier_Division_of_the_SS_(1st_Galician)
@@jacobjorgenson9285she does cover how the Ukrainians welcomed the Nazis yes, since they were being starved to death by the Russians it's understandable that they may have thought that their enemy's enemy was their friend. Or at the very least, do whatever they could to stay alive. Either way, Ukrainians alive today are about as responsible for that as I am personally responsible for the trans Atlantic slave trade. Whatever mistakes they made in the past doesn't excuse Russia's war crimes today.
@@jacobjorgenson9285 Ukraine and Poland made their peace long ago. You should pay attention to the war crimes that are happening right now.
You know who is committing them.
One of my parents survived the famine and told me stories of hunger, starvation and even cannibalism. So let's see, the Russians starve 5-6 million of your people (in the richest agricultural lands in Europe) and suddenly another army kicks them out - whose side are you going to be on?!?
@@Vlad65WFPReviewsI'm so sorry to hear that they went through. Reading about those events, of parents going mad with hunger and eating their own children, reduced me to tears. Yet we never learned about when studying WW2 in school. If as much educational emphasis were placed on this as on the Holocaust, we might not have so many idiot communists or Russian sympathisers around today.
Your best Leading interview yet.
Sort comments by newest to see censored comments!
Rory all you missed is in the book, just read it. Brilliant woman, love her ❤
Well done guys!! Top top discussion!!!!!!
Didn’t Tony Blair go and work for dictators?
Blair was making big bucks off the central Asian dictators. Supposedly showing them how to develop 'good governance' but probably explaining how to strip mine state assets by privatisation and then money-launder the profits. Cant see much difference between Blair ,Clinton compared to Trump except they are smarter and better at doing corruption on the down low.
I'm sorry no one ever talks about the autocratic regime in Mexico. Can't you see how much it affects politics in the US and by effect in the whole world?! Putin certainly sees and takes advantage of this fact at his convenience.
Don't be ridiculous.
Show poopin the penthouse window view.
Thought the subjects discussed were really interesting, and some great questions, but really seemed like Anne didn’t wanted to be there or just wasn’t interested. I felt a lot of her answers were blunt at best or dismissive at worst.
More likely that impression you have is due to editing cutting some of her answers short. She seemed well engaged to me.
Great interview 👍
spinners’ snake pit
Excellent
In Ruzzia Mafia is the Government...so? That has been the case for over 20 years and the Western politicians have been fine with it and many still are fine with it. Elected officials. Democracy can produce some whacky results.
Thanks
She is not wrong🫵
I love how eggheads can dissect the history when they are not involved in the current situation nor any consequences. So much intellectual talk that is really meaningless except for them to listen to themselves talk.
Same in all post soviet countries but controlled by us.... they coukd buy whole countries for mil8on dollars back then...😅
Disappointing that AC raises examples from media & sport not London property purchases
She literally did multiple times?
🇷🇺💸🇬🇧🤨
Ahh I see now...Young & Innocent Ms Applebaum took a trip to the USSR, travelled throughout the Soviet Empire, learned about its history & cultures...Then returned to "Civilization" so that she could write & publish the followup to Solzhenitsyn's (The Gulag Archipelago) which was titled (The Gulag). She then fell in love with one of the biggest Russophobes in human history who Mr Sikorski...
If Russia didn't invade Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia there wouldn't be Russophobes.
36:53 Putin did it “to show that he does not care about our rules”
You yourself do not care about your rules. Remember Kosovo? Iraq? Syria? Libya? Why should Putin care?
Besides, it is a ridiculous claim: Putin has been warning you of the exact reason for doing this since 2008: Russia wouldn’t allow NATO on its Ukrainian border. You just thought it wasn’t important. You even bragged that you’d cheated him with the Minsk agreements. How do you feel about this now when so many thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are dead and there is no end to this meat-grinder? Happy?
You are inventing lies to cover up your own hypocrisy and ignorance - which is worse than crime. Nothing new.
Exactly! Everything she said about the Russian Ukrainian war is part of the truth with zero acknowledgement or ownership of the west's role.
A lot of duplicitous framing of past events here. Full on neo-con. Realises her comeuppance is nigh.
In America , AIPAC runs the show
And Queue the anti semitism.
Everyone saying how interesting she is? She hasn't said a single insightful thing. Everyone's a hypocrite but if you're my kind of hypocrite you're ok because I've decided we are on the right side of history. What a stunning revelation, thanks. Also, I love the way liberals talk about the Venezuelan opposition as some shining light of democracy after they spent a decade trying to overthrow Chavez using every anti democratic means available.
Thanks for providing evidence that communists don't understand democracy and are dangerous for society
this has to be the most 🤮 double standard, american exceptionalism, commentator ever. Are there oligarchs in the west? the double standards of this person are most disgusting.
OK Vlad. 🙄
Well the oligarchs in Germany and France aren't causing them to invade Ukraine are they
Applebaum - fantastic. The discussion afterwards - b.s.
To complicated to explain? Or to do something about? Or is it maybe something to take advantage of.
"Most bloody and brutal imperial war of this century" NOPE that would have been Bush. Dont like Putin but maybe we should stop being hypocrits?
I was thinking exactly that
We don't care for our rules, particularly Israel Lebanon ,