Australia didn't caught in the US-China conflict, its Australia sleep walking into US led conflict, China is the victim to this US led conflict from US trade war, sanction, Chips, science & IT ban for the last decade. China had been very patient and only starts taking counter action these few years.
This is the way that I see it as well. US is just non stop bombardment on China, my analogy is the US attacks are like an assault from a machine gun.if it’s not one thing, it’s another, short of a literal attack with real weapons.
Rubbish! China has put sanctions on Australia! They’re not victims, they’re bullies. And if they take Taiwan they increase their power to the point that Australia has no real sovereignty, can be blockaded any time we don’t give the CCP what they want, and as we are well aware from past dealings… they just take and take and take. Deals aren’t deals with CCP, it’s outright theft and coercion. We need to stand by the US for our own future. As does Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. The US have kept global trade routes open and free for global trade. They are the reason China has been able to trade their way out of poverty, they’re why Australia was able to trade its way out of poverty, and now China is bullying our nations out of the South China Sea, building military bases on reefs, ramming fishing boats In international waters, making SCS unsafe as a trade route, and they’re just beginning. Allowing china to take the lead, collapses the progress of a free and united world, and it’s allowing trade to be impeded which will result in decline back into poverty. China were lifted up with Wilsonian liberalism, and now they’re collapsing the very system that got their people better lives… and will collapse our systems too. All in the name of Xi Jinping and his reach for dominance.
Australia did not sleep walk but deliberately chose to side with their US master as they are part of the racist Anglo-Saxon supremacist coalition to dominate the world. Beniffiting enormously from trade with China n colluding with their US master to suppress China's progress is beyond irrationality n madness. The only reason for such behaviour is racism.
Our current government in Taiwan now runs a fake or sham democractic in addition to extremely partisan and corrupted, likely to fail in coming presidential election, except in the case of cheating which is very likely in Taiwan because the current puppet woman president Ms. Tsai had appointed a very very partisan and very radically anti-China ex-govenor to run the election! She would do whatever her sponsors tell her to do. Also now we don't have real check-and-balance nor freedom of press or speech right any more now due to the flaws of the system design, and the current government taking full advantage of it ! Our Supreme Court judges are appointed term by term by a new president. Even the Commissioner who runs the election operation will be appointed by a new president, and our current woman president selected an extreme partisan and anti-China ex-governor to do the job; she got re-elected in 2020! More hurtingly is the naming of new members on NCC which sternly controls media in Taiwan basically are decided by current members, who are all anti-China separatists to begin with because when this institution was set up in 2000 by the 1st separatist government in 2000. Since then they fined heavily or simply terminated licenses of whichever channel who says good things about China or advocate peace between China and Taiwan. So all day long the public only hear good things about the current government or terrible bad things about China. Our presidency also gets to appoint state enterprises that monopolize major sectors like oil and electricity companies, so our incumbent puppet woman president appointed her major wealthy donors or people related to her sponsors who tend be extremely partisan and very anti-China; no wealthy merchants like to be affected by a socialist government like Chinese one. No wonder after she ascent to this throne on 2016, we saw more and more bribery, crimes and government incompetence. The incumbent Party DDP behaves more gangster-like for one of her close adviser turned out to be an ex-gangster!
IMHO, the issue is not Australia is caught in a US-China conflict. Ask why ASEAN which is closer to the theatre of the potential conflict is not "caught" as well? TBH, Australia chose to be in the conflict by taking a side between the protagonists. The potential conflict is truly a conflict of choice. The choice is between the 2 powers agreeing to live in a shared future through mutual cooperation and peace, or a zero-sum mentality that one side eradicate the other side for her existence not to be threatened. I contend that for sane people with critical-thinking capability and a character of temperate disposition, it is obvious that the continued existence of both sides is perfectly possible without a war of annihilation of one or the other. Incidentally, there were many instances in which the false narratives of the impossibility of a shared future between two protagonists has been promoted that led to past wars like that between different religions in conflict, different cultures, or different political systems. Think of past exemplars: Religions - Catholics vs Protestants, Christianity vs Islam, etc. Race + Culture - Nazi vs Jews, etc. Politics - Communism vs Capitalism, etc. ps. Get rid of WAR-MONGERS ought to be humanity's task for a more harmonious world.
Seems like you are trying to make a simple issue sound as complicated as possible. It's much better for you to state clearly which side is the aggresor and war monger.
I find it odd why Australia doesn't compare its panicky, anti-China stance with that of countries in Southeast Asia, which are friendly to China. This difference cannot be explained by the need to preserve Australia's freedom and democracy because countries in Southeast Asia do not fear China changing their political systems. However, Australia's anti-China position could be explained by Anglo-Saxon imperialism and superiority complex, and racist tribalism.
Australia is not caught in between. We were convinced to join the US to control China, and this would not end well. For a medium-sized economy, which is heavily traded with China BTW, we could stay neutral like the Swiss and retain both the trades and the political influence in the region. Instead, we turn ourselves into a USA vessel state. If China had a problem, they would just talk to the boss. I was listening to Paul Keating recently, and I could not be more concerned about how gullible we become.
We need more honest Australians like Paul Keating. Fewer Australians beholden to an American leash. Americans will station B21 bombers with tactical nuclear weapons in Australia. Nuclear Submarine deal is only the beginning. Stationing nuclear bombers is the logical next step. It is the only way Americans could secure hegemony without sacrificing American lives.
Same old same old the US gets other people countries to fight their wars for them and get other countries men to die fighting for the US without losing their own soldiers.
As a citizen from Taiwan, I will point out that many of us, un-brainwashed common citizens on Taiwan island just wish U.S. and its allies to leave us alone ! We could solve our problem with China, who actually has been nice to us, letting us to make 40% of export profit from them! also providing emergency relief when we have natural disasters, with many tourists visiting us helping us local small business... But the current separatist party DPP took power in 2016 by lies such as "everything would remain the same as previous pro-China government" which brought economic prosperity. The separatists also cunningly chose a woman parrot as their presidential candidate who has a smiling face and lives all her life in a wealthy home and university cocoon and who only repeats prepared texts about "freedom and democracy" and "China is dictatorship!" Her backers, the wealthy class, don't want a socialist party to run their comfortable lives. In recent 3 decades they had gradually aroused hatred among common people against China by buying up mainstream media and got quite a lot of their people elected as politicians, so us voters all day long only hear bad "news" about China! They also circulated "history" books which actually are full of false narratives, exaggeration and rumors, esp. about Chinese army "massacred" Taiwanese in 1947, which turned out to be a post-war inflation-incurred discontentious riots that also mixed in with unemployed pro-Japan ex-soldiers who attacked incoming Chinese immigrants, as well as Chinese Communists who wanted to overthrow the KMT government at that time. The riot lasted 2 weeks, resulting total deaths about 1000 including criminals and innocents killed by them . Anyway by spreading those distorted history among the younger generations who don't know the history first-hand, separatists got them into ultimate power on Taiwan island in 2016 with also a majority in Congress. Once in power they became extreme partisan dictators themselves, taking advantage of a flawed, unbalanced political system that endows our President with huge power, including nomination of her own Supreme Court judges (our judges of only get 2 terms), nomination of the prosecutor heads, and most importantly appointments of the media-controlling NCC members, along with Chairman of Election Operation affairs! So this woman parrot just appointed all her close sponsors! Ending up her NCC shut down the last TV channel that doesn't always criticizs China (which of course they did it by citing an un-related slight cause that wasn't the real reason that prompted them to do it. This merchant-filled separatist party is savvy knowing what Americans and the EU want and don't want to hear. ) Now her officials even try to hypnotize our young men that modern wars are fought like playing video games, which our youth love to do. Is this a real democratic benevolent government that you Americans want to lend support to? Don't, because it's immoral and bound to be scandalous!
I totally agreed with you. In Asia it is an Asian problem not thing to do with any Western countries BS of democracy & freedom. We in Asia want to concentrate on Economic development. We the Asian will solve our own security problems. We have been living with China as our neighbor for thousands of years. We never have a situation like Europe on annihilate each others. Both WWI & WWII was an European problems. That was enmash with the Japanese expansion foreign policies to colonised others Asian countries in 1930s.
But as Hugh White already analysed, it is not really about TW, or in other words, not about you guys. It is about US or CHN dominance. As a result, you guys in TW, and even us in Australia, are ammo, to be polite.
@@Ffsniper-zi1cxFentanyl infused? Enjoy your woke society, tents cities, where everything is free, including experimental drugs carried out by the Americans biggest pharmaceutical industry, human rights?
Interesting discussion - thank you. Taiwan and Ukraine conflicts are pretexts for US to exert its dominance. It's not about freedom, democracy or idealogical differences, it's about Western hegemony. China is a threat because it could challenge the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. An economy that is destined to grow larger than the US makes China a threat because a big economy could provide an alternative to the US dollar. From this lens, Japan and Germany were also seen as threats to Western dominance. US will go to war anywhere in the world to protect the US dollar. If the US dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency, there would be no need for 800 plus military bases in the world to defend the king dollar.
You are ignoring wars against countries that do not threaten the dollars dominance. It's very simple, the US goes to war because it's economy is geared towards war. If the American people were compassionate and respectful for life, millions would not have been killed for America's financial benefit. A more morally corrupt society does not exist in this world.
The US is no longer able to compete on equal terms with China. It is a rent seeking economy, which is reason why it has to rely on creating endless conflicts around the world to maintain its world hegemony. A declining empire is at its most dangerous n will lash out aimlessly in all directions
If US dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency , there will be another country goes to war everywhere to create new king dollars. or maybe more than on country tries to do that. The world will be in hell.
No country should underestimate China’s strong will, unwavering determination and military strength to unite Taiwan by peaceful means, or by force if necessary. It is not in Australia’s interest to mess with a civil war that has lasted over 70 years!
Mr. White has the right perspective. Australia very reluctantly come to the reality of its Asian existence. It should remove all anti-China weaponry to enjoy prosperity and peace as a good Asian neighbor. Australia faces rising China and much broad economic ties with China; would be foolish to side with US on Taiwan issue. Taiwan is a nationalistic interest for China, while US only has regional hedgemony concern; in time China will become dominant.
Appreciate the conversation 🙏 It's sad to see Prof. Hugh White here muted by mainstream media for his rational views. Hopefully Australia steers clear from another one of America's overseas adventures because this one is looking to have incredibly high stakes for everyone involved.
Our current government in Taiwan now runs a fake or sham democractic in addition to extremely partisan and corrupted, likely to fail in coming presidential election, except in the case of cheating which is very likely in Taiwan because the current puppet woman president Ms. Tsai had appointed a very very partisan and very radically anti-China ex-govenor to run the election! She would do whatever her sponsors tell her to do. Also now we don't have real check-and-balance nor freedom of press or speech right any more now due to the flaws of the system design, and the current government taking full advantage of it ! Our Supreme Court judges are appointed term by term by a new president. Even the Commissioner who runs the election operation will be appointed by a new president, and our current woman president selected an extreme partisan and anti-China ex-governor to do the job; she got re-elected in 2020! More hurtingly is the naming of new members on NCC which sternly controls media in Taiwan basically are decided by current members, who are all anti-China separatists to begin with because when this institution was set up in 2000 by the 1st separatist government in 2000. Since then they fined heavily or simply terminated licenses of whichever channel who says good things about China or advocate peace between China and Taiwan. So all day long the public only hear good things about the current government or terrible bad things about China. Our presidency also gets to appoint state enterprises that monopolize major sectors like oil and electricity companies, so our incumbent puppet woman president appointed her major wealthy donors or people related to her sponsors who tend be extremely partisan and very anti-China; no wealthy merchants like to be affected by a socialist government like Chinese one. No wonder after she ascent to this throne on 2016, we saw more and more bribery, crimes and government incompetence. The incumbent Party DDP behaves more gangster-like for one of her close adviser turned out to be an ex-gangster! Our current government in Taiwan now runs a fake or sham democractic in addition to extremely partisan and corrupted, likely to fail in coming presidential election, except in the case of cheating which is very likely in Taiwan because the current puppet woman president Ms. Tsai had appointed a very very partisan and very radically anti-China ex-govenor to run the election; and she got re-elected despite the odds. She would do whatever her sponsors tell her to do. Worse now we actually don't have real check-and-balance nor freedom of press or speech right any more due to the flaws of the system design, and the current government taking full advantage of it ! Our Supreme Court judges are not life guaranteed but appointed term by term by a new president. Even the Commissioner who runs More hurtingly is the naming of new members on NCC which sternly controls media in Taiwan is decided by current members, who are all anti-China separatists to begin with because when this institution was set up in 2000 by the 1st separatist government in 2000. Since then, they fined heavily or simply terminated the licenses of whichever channel who says good things about China or advocate peace between China and Taiwan. So all day long the public only hear good things about the current government or terrible bad things about China. Our presidency also gets to appoint state enterprises that monopolize major sectors like oil and electricity companies, so the incumbent puppet woman president appointed her major wealthy donors or people related to her sponsors, who tend be extremely partisan and very anti-China. No wealthy merchants like to be affected by a socialist government like Chinese one. No wonder after she ascent to this throne on 2016, we saw more and more bribery, crimes and government incompetence. The incumbent Party DDP behaves more gangs; one of her close adviser turned out to be an ex-gangster!
The answer to the question is very convoluted, long winded, pedantic and full of ambiguity. It can be a 10 - 15 minutes video instead of 1-1/2 hrs. Hence, it has lost its effectiveness and benefit. And, the answer remain hanging in the air and incomplete. Sad. They shld choose substance over form to answer the question so that ordinary Australians/viewers can easily understand and appreciate the answer in a more meaningful manner. In US, it is known as "Let's cut to the chase."
As an American I totally agree with his analysis. To be dragged into a war over Taiwan has huge implications for Australia and should be thoroughly thought through way before that happens. I think about the war with Iraq and wonder if our Allies could have brought some sanity into American decision making and avoid that whole miss. To give a rubber stamp to support America in a possible war with China should not be a given. More countries involved in the decision making the better. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a dove. I believe supporting Ukraine is the absolute right thing to do. But Taiwan. Arn’t they officially supposed to be a part of China anyway and to think America could win a war with china who is a hundred miles away and America who’s 6 thousand miles away defies logic and common since.
If US continues with the strategic ambiguity stance before trump the region would hv continued without the current tensions. US abandoned this stance with the intention to stir discord in this region to start a proxy war after it sees how profitable their venture has been in Ukraine. Not only making money from stirring the proxy war, it will weaken China after it weakens Russia without shedding one drop of american blood. it is this disingenuous intention that is not been confronted and media and the west is prepared to discuss this agenda treading on the hypocrisy of "protecting" Taiwan. In fact at this juncture, the Taiwanese knows much better and strangely no one is asking them..
@@samliew6610 Mark meant China is a hundred miles away, but America is thousands of miles away. What the pro-war people are not getting is that China is not Russia and Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan is the Donbass, China is Ukraine, and the US is playing Russia. American soldiers don't want to die for Taiwan any more than Russian soldiers wants to die in Ukraine. The situation is exactly the same. Ukraine has been trying to recover the separatist DPR and LPR since 2014, and China is trying to recover a separatist province. The moment the US bombs China, the Chinese would be fighting for their lives. Just like when Russia attacked Ukraine. With the added incentive, that they have no where else to go. No country would, or could, accept a billion refugees.
From the position of any same, rational person, Australia has too much to lose if it chooses a side in this conflict. Why not be neutral? What can possibly be gained from walking head first into an escalating situation? Someone, please make it make sense to me.
Neutrality means you don't have any ally or allies when you need them, because by definition an ally is someone you are side with, and vise verse. It's very simple from a strategic perspective or logic.
The US has been going around the world to force countries that want to be neutral to take a side. Their slogan is "You are with us or against us." As such, a few more countries has gone to the US side for fear of this veiled threat. If they left countries to choose neutrality, the US would be totally alone.
@@gogojest9367 the problem comes when your ally is looking for a fight. Do you try to calm him down, or do you express your willingness to back up your ally hoping that the other guy would back down? The complicating factor here is that you know your ally doesn't actually want the other guy to back down. Your ally wants to knee-cap the other guy so that he is no longer a threat. The insanity here is that both your ally and his rival are carrying doomsday devices like the Predator in the movie, that will kill us all.
@@danielch6662 It would be even more logical to join one side when both sides have doomsday devices. Because 1, were their conflict escalated to use doomsday devices, if there is any survivor it would be largely weakened or in a bad shape. So the former neutral state can take advantage and be the last winner. It's just unbearable for them, so the natural and logical thing to do is to eliminate this neutral one/ones before the final confrontation, unless the country is so weak and unimportant in every respective. 2. When one side decide to nuke you for whatever reason, there will be no protection aka nuclear umbrella to prevent them to do so.
@@gogojest9367 And Australia is reachable by hypersonic missiles which China has! Besides, Russia may come to China's aid too because Russia wants a multipolar world, not a unipolar world. Also, Russia totally distrusts the US now andcwould not want the US to defeat her friendly neighbour and strategic partner, China!
Amazing analysis Hugh n James. Hope more Australians can watch your program. Peace is what we should aim for n not war. No one wins in the war. China today is not China two hundreds years ago. The people are now more supportive of their government and they have been on the defensive for a long long time. Even at its weakest point in history,they defeated the us armies during the Korean wars and resisted the Japanese take over .
There would be a second sunflower students movement, maybe even with guns. The America-friendly wing showed in 2014 that they will not accept Taiwan getting closer to China, whether it's the democratic will or not.
Australia's security in the Indo Pacific requires loss of sovereignty, so it comes down to - do you want to go to war with an ally that won't do much to grow your economy or choose peace and grow with the region.
I never liked the term "Indo-Pacific", which is a US invention. It removes "Asia" from "Asia-Pacific". To people living in East Asia, "Asia-Pacific" matters. I don't see why "Asia" should be replaced by "Indo". The US wants to make the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean into one huge battle theatre. However, the people of the Asia-Pacific don't have to suffer the whims and fancies of the US.
@@katong1953 Disagree. AUKUS would prefer to contain China’s defeat, to the Taiwan Strait. Actions by The West will depend on the Western governments of the day, be it, tomorrow, 2027 or 2049. Remember the West has democracies, not dictatorships. Leaders change. Public opinions change in free societies. The West has twice the economic and power of the United States alone.
@@katong1953 , US always use flowery language to disguise its intention. Lobby is used for bribe. Political donations is for kickbacks, undocumented immigrants for illegal aliens, pay the fines without admission of wrongdoings for guilty, etc, etc. So no surprise Indo-Pacific for East Asia. Some people get fooled all the time. 😂😂
@@petersinclair3997 , false. US used lies, deceptions and misinformation to create wars. BRICS+ economic power and population is bigger than the G7 and US. This does not include SCO, RCEP, and others yet. The petrodollar is in decline. US$ as world reserve currency is slowly eroded away as BRICS nations replace the dollar with domestic currency and bypass the SWIFT system. This means many allied countries including Japan, S.Korea and Europe are dedollarizing to survive. So, massive devaluation of the dollar will cause US economic pains and economic survival (rising national debt ceiling, default of pymts, rapid inflation, bank run, etc). These geopolitical events are not speculations. They are already underway. Scottish MP blasted US for lying to create wars ruclips.net/video/a-d9Csq41kg/видео.html Biden arrogantly mocked Russia now backfired ruclips.net/video/SY_eNUXQMzM/видео.html The whole world hates America ruclips.net/video/a-d9Csq41kg/видео.html BRICS economy larger than Europe and US ruclips.net/video/sVtu8OEodFc/видео.html
@@petersinclair3997Just like the war in Ukraine is not about protecting Ukrainian sovereignty and democracy but about having a proxy war with Russia in order to maintain and expand U.S. hegemony, the same tactic is being planned over Taiwan against China for the same reasons. This has nothing to do with freedom and democracy. Our democratic rights and liberty are being slowly eroded in the service of US imperialism. It depends on an largely uniformed and misinformed populace to manufacture consent for more war. The fact that the U.S. has 800 military bases around the globe, mostly encircling China and Russia, and war ships are gathering in the South China seas and yet people are convinced into thinking Russia and China are the aggressors is remarkable evidence of how the propaganda is working. The thin veneer of democracy in the West masks the control the US actually has over Europe’s leaders. This is the so called International Rules Based Order, which is effectively the neoliberal global economic order that relies on US dollar hegemony. This is slowly coming apart at the seams and in desperation the US and its neoliberal elite partners are attempting to salvage US empire through war, regime change operations and sanctions on anyone who stands up to the empire. In the meantime the military industrial complex is making a killing in more ways than one. ‘War is a racket’ General Smedley Butler.
This specky speaker is very Biased. Why don't you mention about the aggressive behaviors of your Master US who has waged so many unprovoked wars with so many countries. China has not even fired a shot or wage a single war for the past many decades. US has 400+ military bases all over IndoChina with extra 4 in Philippines lately - many with troops (even in Taiwan which is part of China) and war weapons and missiles all at the door of China. WHO is the AGGRESSOR?????
It is a clash of idealogy. A scarcity mindset vs a mindset of abundance. The win-lose mentality is the result of a scarcity mindset, a belief that resources are limited and that one must compete to secure them. This type of thinking leads to a zero-sum game mentality where one person's success is another's failure. The mindset of abundance recognizes that resources and opportunities can be created and shared, it is possible to move beyond the win-lose mentality and towards a more collaborative and mutually beneficial approach to success. Western powers engaged in colonization around the world during various periods of history, including ancient times, the Middle Ages, the Age of Discovery, and modern and neo-colonial periods. During the Age of Discovery, European powers, including Spain, Portugal, France, and England, colonized the Americas, Asia, and Africa. In the 19th and 20th centuries, European powers colonized Africa and Asia, while also engaging in neo-colonial practices that continue to this day. Colonization by Western powers involved the establishment of political and economic control over other groups and territories, often leading to exploitation and the suppression of local cultures and populations. To keep its dominant position, the US is causing deaths and destruction all over the world. To make the world safe for democracy, the US has caused the deaths of tens of millions of people in its conflicts in distant lands such as Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The CIA was involved in covert operations that resulted in mass killings of communists in over 22 countries. Over 500,000 Indonesian civilians disappeared in 1965-1966. The number of wars started by the US since WWII (201), foreign leaders overthrown (36), killed, or attempted assassination (50), dropping bombs in other countries (30), interference in foreign elections (86), and the number of overseas military bases (800). In the past forty-four years, the Chinese military has not been involved in any wars or used their weapons to kill a single person outside their territory. Despite having a per capita GDP that is one-sixth that of the US, China is enthusiastically expending an enormous amount of its resources to assist in the development of other countries. It is a choice between death and destruction or peace and prosperity. Australia has made its choice.
Hugh White is uttering complete nonsense on several points: 1. China is not, and has never intended to pick a fight with the US. It doesn’t need to. Clearly, China’s economic capacity has already surpassed that of the US in every respect. In GDP ppp terms, China is already 20% larger than the US. And, there is no comparison in terms of manufacturing capacity. Similarly China’s influence on the world stage far exceeds that of the US particularly in the global south. These gaps only increase with each passing day. 2. As such, China has no need and no inventive to engage in a war with the US. Time is on their side. 3. On the contrary, the US hegemonic power is crumbling fast. In order to prevent the inevitability, the only tool left in its toolbox is its military power. Even on that front, its lead is shrinking with each passing day. Therefore, it is gunning to pick a fight with China while it still can. 4. As it has done with Ukraine, the US intends to fight China with Taiwan as its chief proxy. Japan will be the other willing proxy. Australia, if so chooses, could end up a proxy as well. 5. Taiwan is a territory of China, so recognized by virtually every nation on the planet. How on earth can the US justify stationing military personnel on China’s soil against China’s will is beyond common logic and in fact illegal. Would it be acceptable to the US if China were to do the same in Hawaii? Would it be acceptable to Australia if China were to station military personnel in Tasmania? Clearly, the answer is no. It would be regarded as a provocation of the highest order. It is clear which country is the aggressor here. In spite of the miserable failures in all its military campaigns since WWII, the US is still bent on waging more wars. It is bent on bringing about yet more destruction to humanity.
What do expect from some pleb who worked at ASPI. When he was introduced as having worked there, I knew exactly what verbal diarrhea he'd be spewing...
"you might be not interested in war but war will be interested in you". Australia with its resources and geographical placement cannot afford to remain neutral. Whereas New Zeald can.
Who provoke who? Siding with Americans is the road to war. All your analysis are useless if you can't contain the American who is attacking so many countries as you speak, Syria, Iran, etc etc. What happened in Afghanistan, Iraq etc and American is still GOD. Please! Stop your analysis and start condemning America to stop any war in this planet.
China knows time is on its side and may not even go to war if Taiwan declares independence. It can make life difficult for the island so much so that the Taiwanese will vote out the secessionists and install a pro China government .China needs only to wait a a bit longer to reach a point where it is too powerful for the US to confront economically or militarily.
Between a declining power and rising power; a war-mongering and peace loving nation, a nation with a zero sum game and a win win mindset; surely it is not difficult to see which nation can offer a better future security and prosperity?
what does Australians want!!??? economic, food and goods on the tables of the people (China and Russia) or securit, billions worth of weapons (US and UK)? btw... the west keeps on bringing the Chinese human rights problems to the front BUT conveniently NEVER mention their own human rights horrors committed AROUND THE WORLD
The strongest ever Liberal form of governance (the U.S.A.) is now being challenged by the strongest ever Communist form of governance (the PRC); in effect these are diametrically opposed socio-economic forms of governance and given their respective size and global influence, conflict between them is almost inevitable. Unfortunately, both of these major state powers are now heavily nuclear armed, hence we must do our best to ensure they do not resort to war in an effort to resolve their conflict. It is highly unlikely but Australia could and should play some role in bringing American leadership to its senses, a good start would be for Australia to let the US administration know that Australian involvement in a war between America and China over Taiwan is not a given.
It's simply too easy to say communist system or communist regime to draw differences. To understand China's system today, as an observer, please search for Prof. ROLAND BOER, an Australian, on CGTN- RUclips. The days of communist experience with the Soviet Union in the early founding of Modern China is well and truly buried. It was an eye opener for me to hear Mr. BOER.
@@aliababwa3866 True; although China does have a Communist party (CPC) leading a Socialist form of governance (with Chinese characteristics). As far as the CPC and its leader Xi Jinping are concerned China is still in the early stages of modernising it's unique form of Socialism and their long term aim is that this will eventually manifest in the form of Communism.
The world by itself is safe and secure.The insecurity and fear is otherwise a mentality to suppress another by might and force of kinds that will suppress the targeted subject to defense or submit to their types of rule.
Why Australia put herself in such complicated position with such artificially imagined nightmares and agony.? Just conduct a respectful and peaceful relationship with all countries absence of divisive and discriminative ideologies.
Australia and Japan sanctioned India after the 1998 nuclear tests. Looks like we Indians have a better understanding of security threats and take a longer term view. Not running around like a headless chicken which Australia looks like today.
US attitude is clear ' my way or highway'. It's Australia who has to decide. Very well articulated that what after, China is going to become an economic giant even bigger than US . How US will conduct such war, crossing Pacific it is not understandable.
I find the lack of public debate on these momentous decisions being made on our behalf very shocking. I wonder how many Australians are aware of the threats and dangers posed by willful ignorance and blind faith in the US-Australia alliance. There needs to be a more robust public debate. Our political leaders are not leading but hiding behind stupid age old Cold war era policies.
Excellent logical analysis thanks Hugh! Both Aust and to a lesser extent NZ need to reconsider our position of whom to support and more importantly why! 1 the world has changed! China has grown to become the largest producer and has an excellencct record of intelligent peaceful considered growth. 2. China India Africa will all follow over time. Conclusion We need to work to reset a globally agreed policy of each regional dominant power should have primary influence over its own region and not attempt to influence other regions or loyalties outside there jurisdiction. Looking at this structure from a south pacific viewpoint. NZ needs to engage support and work with Australia to build and stabilise our region. Australia need to reflect this with Indonesia and in turn Indonesia with China. We no longer look to Britain We need to acknowledge China. China will have to share its influence with Russia in the north India in the east and USA to the West. By acting now we send a clear message to the US. Otherwise we shall sleepwalk into nuclear war.
You completely ignored the fact that China is a totalitarian state with concentration camps, criminal dictatorship, omnipotent police force, orchestrated media and murderous ideology. How could you compare it with western democracies. It is either hopless stupidity or corruption.
Why should Australia be afraid/suspicious of China? China has never threatened Australia but has had a good commercial relationship with Australia from 1972?
If I'm to believe we live in a true democracy, an issue this large would call for a referendum put to the people to guage public opinion. I am sick of the pessimistic automatic response "referenda almost never pass". I think it diminishes the meaning and significance of referenda generally, and an insult to collective public intelligence. I think putting this question to Australian citizens is imperative, because the 2 world powers concerned have more 'sway' over, (putting it politely), and capable of exerting more 'pressure' (also a polite choice of words), on politicians than they have over the public.
When has China ever threatened Australia?? ASPI receives funding from defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, Thales Group and Raytheon Technologies, all part of the US military-industrial complex. So what do you expect from this ASPI guy to say!!!
I am surprised that the moderator has not seen it necessary to include a Chinese historian to contribute his view about the Taiwan issue and what it means to China. If Taiwan is to be the pivotal point for a War....then surely Australia needs to understand deeply what she is getting herself into. Secondly, both speakers have not brought up the very emotional issue to China and the Chinese people, about the Century of Humiliation and why they will fight to the end to see that it never happens again. Thirdly, who has the greater motivation in winning this war between China and US over Taiwan??? Australia has to consider this profoundly: 1. China is fighting for her Sovereignity. President Xi has a popular rating of over 92% throughout China. 2. US is fightng over apparently an Ideology but more so for primacy. Bear in mind the spectacularly fast changing world...about BRICS' membership, China/ Saudi Arabia and Arab nations building close relations, China/Iraq/Iran, China/Africa/ South America close relations and the abandoning of the USD currency in their trading arrangements. G7 impotence in today's world. The clarity about the decline of US primacy is on the wall. The US herself is embroiled with massive, massive domestic issues of social unhappiness, unequal wealth distribution, deep political division, race, economic decline, drugs, violence ..etc 3. US lost just about 2000 men in Afghanistan over 20 years...yes l repeat over 20 years... and their people are no longer willing to sacrifice further their sons and daughters for that war. In a War over Taiwan..the sinking of a Carrier will mean the loss of 5000 men...and within weeks tens of thousands of American will be dead. How do you think the folks back home will take this...and for Taiwan!??? 4. The probability of a Nuclear war is very high. Do Americans want their cities where Millions will die to be nuked because of Taiwan!??? It would seem wise for Australia to think over very carefully about these issues. Do not sleep walk into a War with China.
this is a contest between a maritime power and a continental power. no prize for who will win. the watery depth awaits those who fight at seas. USA at its peak could not take Japan at WW2 and North Korea.
That last question was EXCELLENT! The fact that Pine Gap exists, makes us vulnerable as one of America's questionable 'territories', as was Hawaii when the U.S. set up camp at Pearl Harbour!
Prof. Hugh White is sincere, honest, Wise and brilliant. My contribution to this debate is a 1 liner; IF AMERICA & ALLIES ARE NOT ABLE TO OCCUPY MAINLAND CHINA, AMERICA WILL HAVE LOST THE WAR AGAINST CHINA ! My opinion that such happening will occur is as unlikely to happen as snow falling on Malaysia.
I can only hope that AUS quickly come to it's senses and renounce it's agreement to support the US military's posture toward War with China. A policy of neutrality in Asia must be the adopted policy by AUS...imo.
You know what… This isn’t the first time that US and Britain have stirred tension in the archipelago. This reminded me a lot on how the then Dutch East Indies (pre-independence Indonesia) in December 1941 brazenly / recklessly / stupidly declared war on Imperial Japan BEFORE US and Britain did so. This is explained in detail here: ruclips.net/video/AI_e1E3j1Qg/видео.html I’m genuinely puzzled why not keep the oil flowing to Japan anyway. Those Dutchmen were just too keen to look strong and show solidarity to both the American and the British perhaps..? Lamentable tragedy that claimed Australian lives like : 1. Muntok, Bangka island massacre 2. Battle of Java Sea 3. Battle of Sunda Sea could have been avoided, had the Dutch colonial government exercised some common sense like what Marshall Phibun’s Thailand and Vichy France’s Indochina had negotiated with Japan. Does this case look serve as a plausible modus operandi of AUKUS to you, my friend..? That name sounds rather horrible by the way. A(merican) B(ritish) A(ustralian) sounds so much better 😂. Other than the fact that none of those countries want their citizens to remember the disastrous defeat of 1941-1942 ABDACOM alliance. Geography-wise, Dutch East Indies - Imperial Japan has a lot in common with modern day Australia - China.
What a great discussion I never thought I'd hear. My thinking is that China will not ever nuke Australia as she's not the party of provocation. However, if in the war scenario Taiwan were to be gained by China, the US will militarize Australia in her own image for a future war. So lose Taiwan but gain Australia. Just postulating as a layman.
Ex Ausie diplomat John Lander expressed a similar view. In his opinion Australia is being lined up as a proxy to fight China on their behalf, so no U.S. blood is spilled. Much like Ukraine. All for US hegemony.
Morris Chang just prevented Taiwan from destruction by the US with a war between the US and China when he moved the fab for the 3nm and 5nm to Arizona.
So far Aussie policy seems to be living in the past - changing new world with declining us power is emerging- BRICS etc. It should be remembered that Australia support the One China policy so for war with Taiwan is actually a national matter within China that has no relevance for outsiders, especially USA or whosoever. What strategic interest is there for Aussie intervention in a china-taiwan war and china has never threatened anyone on the Asean region
This is a very interesting conversation and most commendable because the speakers were honest and objective. However, from the perspective of the Chinese, there are voids and discrepancies because, the views don’t reflect representation of Chinese culture and norms. What is most significantly missing with the Taiwan issue is reference to the core issue, that brought about the inclusion of PRC as representing China in lieu of the ROC in the UN and the greater world community- “ The One China Policy “. All the major members of the UN acknowledged that there was only one China and Taiwan was a province of China. China’s view of the behaviour of the US and it’s allies is being hypocritical and illegal in interfering with the internal affairs of a sovereign China in agitating and encouraging an integral part to breakaway. The US and it’s allies are so ready to demonise the Chinese as delinquent in a world that is rule based, but isn’t it understandable why the West doesn’t understand the Chinese ? The problem is not with the Chinese, but it is with the West which flip flops saying the same thing and inconsistent in its intent. 😊 Until this is acknowledged by the West, there is no likelihood that meaningful communication can be achieved. However, the real reason is that the West is immoral and deploying this subterfuge of duplicity in communications to justification of their behaviour. Lee Kuan Yew predicted that Australia was in danger of becoming the white trash of Asia, little realising, it could arise from abrogation to the possession of national pride and respectability.
Australia is the only remaining interloper colonizer in Asia. It had better be extremely careful on who it sides with, the colonial past or a future where it must live with China, because China has always been there and is not going away. Australia has been there two hundred years and if it cannot live with it's neighbors, it may not live at all.
It is so good to have listened to yet another brilliant speaker and SCHOLAR of such immense wisdoms analysing on the American relationship with China! China by its origin and history has been a very tough cookie through the journey of many internal war fightings within multiple kingdoms through to the 18th century's multiple foreign invasions by the US, Japan and six other European countries, resulting Chinese lost incredible millions of lives, and extreme poverty because the whole China was completely looted by these foreign invading countries! The recent rise of China after nearly two centries of being trodden on to savagely treated by European countries, together with horrific brutality from Japan, and all these countries once again want to collaborate together to repeat the history of invading and engulf China!? WHY? WHY & WHY? Taiwan, Hong Kong Macau are part of CHINESE TERRITORIES AND UNDER THE SOVEREIGNTY & JURISDICTION OF CHINA! These islands are the firewalls of Chinese defensive protections, so why such should come under any country to get involved and propel political conflict and instigate 3rd world war! Both China and India each have the world's largest populations, all countries on this planet should wish these two countries stable, flourish and prosper on their own strengths to support and feed their nations! Haven't we seen enough human misery in the recent decades that ship loads after ship loads of refugees being displaced to fleeing other countries! Where our hearts and compassion! Please acknowledge that Chinese nation's great long struggle with blood and sweat that no country in history has ever struggled & suffered like China!
Not a easy decision. Henry Kissinger once said. “ To be an enemy of the United States is dangerous but to be a friend is fatal.” Then with the latest slogan from the US administration is either you are with us or you are against us gives very little choice for countries who want to stay neutral.
Your basic premise is already broken. The US is NOT the dominant power in Asia. It is not a member of ASEAN and supports only 3-4 countries. (S Korea. Japan. Phillipines. Australia) Nor does it claim all of the S China Sea as its own territory. It believes in freedom of the seas and would have NO CHOICE if their trade interests are threatened. The question is whether that would be the case if Taiwan is lost to the mainland Chinese.
Always love the realistic analysis of Hugh White, not that I agree with everything he said. The USA is and always will be a great country but we need to seriously discuss as to what extent ...
The sad thing is they are all located in the northern part of hemisphere. Therefore any nuclear exchange wouldn’t be in the northern hemisphere. They’d pick a sparely populated large area to demonstrate the destructive power of their weapons down under. They wouldn’t want to contaminate the ocean and fishes. Take Fukushima nuclear contamination water release..how they up roared for. If I were an Australian, I wouldn’t sit idly and let the them play gods. Good fortune to you all.
Yeah stop shaking in your tennis shoes 😊 we're not war mongers over the ditch in New Zealand 😊 But it's all our protection on the Pacific rim. The trade ways on waters. It's not there island, They been building there own. Lets all build, and help each other 😊
Despite him being called an ‘expert’ on China, Hugh White’s opening statements about China and the reasons for the US-China rivalry are all wrong. First, it is untrue that the US and China have always fight for hegemony over the South China Sea region. In fact at the Yslta conference and the China-US rapport after Nixon visited China, the US has supported China s position that Taiwan is part of China. The rivalry between them only occurred when Obama recognizing that China like Japan would overtake the US as the worlds number one economy, started the US pivot to China to contain or prevent its further economic development. This, high white either either through ignorance or deliberately hide the history of it, did not state. It is the only reason why the US-China rivalry started; to prevent another economically strong Japan from happening. Secondly, Hugh’s posturing that China is increasingly aggressive because it wishes to replace the US as the dominant power in Asia is a lie, cultivated by the CIA to give Australia an excuse to confront China for any concocted reason like the Covic epidemic. South East Asia was a peaceful lake until Obama started the campaign to contain China and created the TPP to exclude China from a regional trade alliance. Trump saw the Obama’s deceit of the US and Australian public and rightly killed it. Thirdly Hugh started the ASPI on CIA funding whose purpose was to drive Australia away from cooperating with China. In this, Hugh betrayed Australia as the activities of this group in influencing the Morrison’ s government fully, had harmed Australian businesses especially farmers and wine growers and Australian employment. By its unreasonable hostilities China, Australia have lost tens of billions of exports to China causing much unemployment. The wine export to China was reduced from $1.2 B to $10 M because of Morrison’s attack on China encouraged and sponsored by Hugh White’s organization. To say that Hugh is an expert on China or that he is an Australian patriot are untrue. He is only an ‘expert’ or given an emeritus status in ANU because of US influence on Australian politicians and manager of ANU. If rated correctly, Hugh’s knowledge of the reformed modern China, is minimal at best and in most things about China today, he is really ignorant. His views are generally reflecting what the CIA pays him to say which is infinitely not credible. There are many real real experts on China including Mahbubani of the Lee Kuan School of Government to listen to. Hugh White definitely is not one of them.
I’m not entirely Chinese but have about 25% Chinese, 25% viet and 50% Cambodian but identify as an Aussie through and through. I came to Australia in 1983 as an almost 3 year old. My parents escaped the genocide of Cambodia which was made possible by the American coup d’tat with a general Lon Nol. Only reason for the invasion was the same as the reason america decided to topple the democratically elected president of Ukraine in 2014. Cambodia also has a democratically elected prime minister. But since they chose to remain neutral and not be a puppet and fight their proxy war, got removed from power. I felt it wrong to question someone’s loyalty to Australia. I love Australia more than my own home country. Just like every other Asian I know who grew up here. We all appreciate and respect bob hawk for giving us a chance at a good life. My parents didn’t know any English when they first came but they knew bomb hawk and thank him everytime good things happen as we’d otherwise not have the opportunity. However, it seems so often we are almost not considered Australian to white america. When I was in primary, I was picked on for being a ching Chong and being black for my darker complexion. Even the viet guy in Singapore who got hung, John Howard didn’t even try to speak up for him but did for the other people who got caught up. Though on the streets we had issues, but felt he should have at least tried as all it showed is the way Asians get treated and often demonised. If I ever get into trouble overseas, I don’t feel like Australia has my back. Especially after the next round of Asian hate aka yellow peril aka the Asian invasion. Many Asians have been killed since all this demonisation began as to everyone else, all us Asians look alike and it didn’t matter if we’re Chinese or not.
This argument is ridiculous. Taiwan spends less than 2% on its Defense and has 4 months military service. If they can’t take their own Defense seriously then neither should Australia. I can’t see Taiwan coming to Australia’s defense if we were attacked. We stand with Aukus but for once we are on the sidelines with Taiwan. Now comprehensive sanctions, complete diplomatic and economic isolation of China for invading - that’s something I think the nation would agree on. The USA needs to come to its senses on this - there is no way it can win against China, let them take Taiwan for what it’s worth and then completely isolate them. Strategically that makes more sense as China without imports collapses. Thinking about it the yanks have already made a move and started the economic stranglehold of China now ….
This constant reference to China's 'assertiveness' is a joke. How many bases have China off the coast of the US? This automatic acceptance of the US side of this view is an embarrassment to me as an Australian
I considered Australia the protector of small government of southeast Asia! Australia is the sources of intelligence when the "yellow peril" is abusing small islands .
Disagree with Prof White’s premise . The conflict if it happens would be if America decides to protect the DEMOCRACY of Taiwan and protect the latte’s great silicon chip processing industry which China covets. Who knows if US will fight ? Maybe maybe not given strategic ambiguity . One thing for sure USA has moved a lot of the chip processing of Taiwan over to USA already . Thus removing a lure for China . But Hugh is correct in asking why would America bother ? After all Formosa now Taiwan was and is populated by Chinese people . Part of China in other words . China regards us in Australia as having chosen USA already ! But frankly I believe we should NOT do so . Don’t leave that decision there till then. Here Hugh is correct it is too late to discuss if the attack by China happens . My long term bet is that India will be the biggest and greatest power in Asia by the turn of te century I don’t believe we Inside Australia should get involved In portiecting Taiwan .
The Chinese cannot really win against the Quad because oil supplies to China can easily be choked off via naval warfare by the Americans alone (also via Indian and Japanese naval capability)- that would bankrupt the: Chinese economy until the Russians can ramp up their oil supplies (that could take many many years). Their economy is very sensitive to price changes due to the way profit margins are structured for export markets. The Chinese economy is nearly bankrupt due to bad debt including massive losses from the BRI trillion dollar program. A war would push it near the edge of a cliff... their political leaders are sensitive to the joblessness and high debts. Military-wise - the US and Japan can still inflict major attrition to Chinese forces. The Chinese military looks better on paper than it actually is... sort of like Russia - which could not even defeat a much weaker country right next door. The Chinese don't have enough real battlefield experience and relatively poor training. A war would be unwinnable in a bigger sense even though battles can be won....
Not really . It's important but no sane country would risk demise of their entire navy or country over a chip dominance by either mainland Chinese or Taiwanese Chinese . Both are Chinese. Take it from me , there will never be any war by US with China because US knows they will lose with their pants down . China hates war as war is bad for business and China is about business while US thrives on wars without which their GDP will tank and their hegemony be over. So when time comes for reunification, at most China will blockade Taiwan to submission and no country will dare to touch a single Chinese ship if they are still sane. China had said , Chinese do not kill Chinese today unlike Western cultures which do not think twice about killing other westerners.
We had some but the gov banned it. US are largest foreign stock holder in AusZ, China are number 8 on the list, despite being our number 1 trade partner.
Please look at fact check on foreign investments in Australia. US, UK are the biggest investors in Australia, followed by Belgium,Japan, HK ( SAR). China is eight on the list. So just think who is controlling our country.
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Australia didn't caught in the US-China conflict, its Australia sleep walking into US led conflict, China is the victim to this US led conflict from US trade war, sanction, Chips, science & IT ban for the last decade. China had been very patient and only starts taking counter action these few years.
This is the way that I see it as well. US is just non stop bombardment on China, my analogy is the US attacks are like an assault from a machine gun.if it’s not one thing, it’s another, short of a literal attack with real weapons.
Rubbish! China has put sanctions on Australia! They’re not victims, they’re bullies. And if they take Taiwan they increase their power to the point that Australia has no real sovereignty, can be blockaded any time we don’t give the CCP what they want, and as we are well aware from past dealings… they just take and take and take. Deals aren’t deals with CCP, it’s outright theft and coercion.
We need to stand by the US for our own future. As does Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam etc.
The US have kept global trade routes open and free for global trade. They are the reason China has been able to trade their way out of poverty, they’re why Australia was able to trade its way out of poverty, and now China is bullying our nations out of the South China Sea, building military bases on reefs, ramming fishing boats In international waters, making SCS unsafe as a trade route, and they’re just beginning. Allowing china to take the lead, collapses the progress of a free and united world, and it’s allowing trade to be impeded which will result in decline back into poverty.
China were lifted up with Wilsonian liberalism, and now they’re collapsing the very system that got their people better lives… and will collapse our systems too. All in the name of Xi Jinping and his reach for dominance.
Australia did not sleep walk but deliberately chose to side with their US master as they are part of the racist Anglo-Saxon supremacist coalition to dominate the world.
Beniffiting enormously from trade with China n colluding with their US master to suppress China's progress is beyond irrationality n madness.
The only reason for such behaviour is racism.
Wage a war with China to the last Ozzie submarine?!
Our current government in Taiwan now runs a fake or sham democractic in addition to extremely partisan and corrupted, likely to fail in coming presidential election, except in the case of cheating which is very likely in Taiwan because the current puppet woman president Ms. Tsai had appointed a very very partisan and very radically anti-China ex-govenor to run the election! She would do whatever her sponsors tell her to do. Also now we don't have real check-and-balance nor freedom of press or speech right any more now due to the flaws of the system design, and the current government taking full advantage of it ! Our Supreme Court judges are appointed term by term by a new president. Even the Commissioner who runs the election operation will be appointed by a new president, and our current woman president selected an extreme partisan and anti-China ex-governor to do the job; she got re-elected in 2020! More hurtingly is the naming of new members on NCC which sternly controls media in Taiwan basically are decided by current members, who are all anti-China separatists to begin with because when this institution was set up in 2000 by the 1st separatist government in 2000. Since then they fined heavily or simply terminated licenses of whichever channel who says good things about China or advocate peace between China and Taiwan. So all day long the public only hear good things about the current government or terrible bad things about China. Our presidency also gets to appoint state enterprises that monopolize major sectors like oil and electricity companies, so our incumbent puppet woman president appointed her major wealthy donors or people related to her sponsors who tend be extremely partisan and very anti-China; no wealthy merchants like to be affected by a socialist government like Chinese one. No wonder after she ascent to this throne on 2016, we saw more and more bribery, crimes and government incompetence. The incumbent Party DDP behaves more gangster-like for one of her close adviser turned out to be an ex-gangster!
IMHO, the issue is not Australia is caught in a US-China conflict.
Ask why ASEAN which is closer to the theatre of the potential conflict is not "caught" as well?
TBH, Australia chose to be in the conflict by taking a side between the protagonists.
The potential conflict is truly a conflict of choice.
The choice is between the 2 powers agreeing to live in a shared future through mutual cooperation and peace, or a zero-sum mentality that one side eradicate the other side for her existence not to be threatened. I contend that for sane people with critical-thinking capability and a character of temperate disposition, it is obvious that the continued existence of both sides is perfectly possible without a war of annihilation of one or the other.
Incidentally, there were many instances in which the false narratives of the impossibility of a shared future between two protagonists has been promoted that led to past wars like that between different religions in conflict, different cultures, or different political systems. Think of past exemplars: Religions - Catholics vs Protestants, Christianity vs Islam, etc. Race + Culture - Nazi vs Jews, etc. Politics - Communism vs Capitalism, etc.
ps. Get rid of WAR-MONGERS ought to be humanity's task for a more harmonious world.
Nice try. USA and the West have never been peaceful
Precisely ...
Seems like you are trying to make a simple issue sound as complicated as possible.
It's much better for you to state clearly which side is the aggresor and war monger.
@@yaoliang1580 Anyone who cannot see..which side is the war mongerer is really stupid..
I find it odd why Australia doesn't compare its panicky, anti-China stance with that of countries in Southeast Asia, which are friendly to China.
This difference cannot be explained by the need to preserve Australia's freedom and democracy because countries in Southeast Asia do not fear China changing their political systems. However, Australia's anti-China position could be explained by Anglo-Saxon imperialism and superiority complex, and racist tribalism.
Australia is not caught in between. We were convinced to join the US to control China, and this would not end well. For a medium-sized economy, which is heavily traded with China BTW, we could stay neutral like the Swiss and retain both the trades and the political influence in the region. Instead, we turn ourselves into a USA vessel state. If China had a problem, they would just talk to the boss. I was listening to Paul Keating recently, and I could not be more concerned about how gullible we become.
AUS didn’t get caught in the conflict, rather AUS is a wilful active participant following the US into the conflict.
We need more honest Australians like Paul Keating. Fewer Australians beholden to an American leash. Americans will station B21 bombers with tactical nuclear weapons in Australia. Nuclear Submarine deal is only the beginning.
Stationing nuclear bombers is the logical next step. It is the only way Americans could secure hegemony without sacrificing American lives.
Same old same old the US gets other people countries to fight their wars for them and get other countries men to die fighting for the US without losing their own soldiers.
Or the U.S. will just use Taiwan in the way they are using Ukraine.
Paul Keating and Labour are naturally aligned with China being ‘socialist’. Has nothing to do with truth.
As a citizen from Taiwan, I will point out that many of us, un-brainwashed common citizens on Taiwan island just wish U.S. and its allies to leave us alone ! We could solve our problem with China, who actually has been nice to us, letting us to make 40% of export profit from them! also providing emergency relief when we have natural disasters, with many tourists visiting us helping us local small business... But the current separatist party DPP took power in 2016 by lies such as "everything would remain the same as previous pro-China government" which brought economic prosperity. The separatists also cunningly chose a woman parrot as their presidential candidate who has a smiling face and lives all her life in a wealthy home and university cocoon and who only repeats prepared texts about "freedom and democracy" and "China is dictatorship!" Her backers, the wealthy class, don't want a socialist party to run their comfortable lives. In recent 3 decades they had gradually aroused hatred among common people against China by buying up mainstream media and got quite a lot of their people elected as politicians, so us voters all day long only hear bad "news" about China! They also circulated "history" books which actually are full of false narratives, exaggeration and rumors, esp. about Chinese army "massacred" Taiwanese in 1947, which turned out to be a post-war inflation-incurred discontentious riots that also mixed in with unemployed pro-Japan ex-soldiers who attacked incoming Chinese immigrants, as well as Chinese Communists who wanted to overthrow the KMT government at that time. The riot lasted 2 weeks, resulting total deaths about 1000 including criminals and innocents killed by them . Anyway by spreading those distorted history among the younger generations who don't know the history first-hand, separatists got them into ultimate power on Taiwan island in 2016 with also a majority in Congress. Once in power they became extreme partisan dictators themselves, taking advantage of a flawed, unbalanced political system that endows our President with huge power, including nomination of her own Supreme Court judges (our judges of only get 2 terms), nomination of the prosecutor heads, and most importantly appointments of the media-controlling NCC members, along with Chairman of Election Operation affairs! So this woman parrot just appointed all her close sponsors! Ending up her NCC shut down the last TV channel that doesn't always criticizs China (which of course they did it by citing an un-related slight cause that wasn't the real reason that prompted them to do it. This merchant-filled separatist party is savvy knowing what Americans and the EU want and don't want to hear. )
Now her officials even try to hypnotize our young men that modern wars are fought like playing video games, which our youth love to do. Is this a real democratic benevolent government that you Americans want to lend support to? Don't, because it's immoral and bound to be scandalous!
I totally agreed with you. In Asia it is an Asian problem not thing to do with any Western countries BS of democracy & freedom. We in Asia want to concentrate on Economic development. We the Asian will solve our own security problems. We have been living with China as our neighbor for thousands of years. We never have a situation like Europe on annihilate each others. Both WWI & WWII was an European problems. That was enmash with the Japanese expansion foreign policies to colonised others Asian countries in 1930s.
But as Hugh White already analysed, it is not really about TW, or in other words, not about you guys. It is about US or CHN dominance. As a result, you guys in TW, and even us in Australia, are ammo, to be polite.
@@Ffsniper-zi1cxFentanyl infused? Enjoy your woke society, tents cities, where everything is free, including experimental drugs carried out by the Americans biggest pharmaceutical industry, human rights?
Hugh White is no guru but speak with a fork tongue
You are dreaming ! China cannot be trusted...that the problem ...
Interesting discussion - thank you. Taiwan and Ukraine conflicts are pretexts for US to exert its dominance. It's not about freedom, democracy or idealogical differences, it's about Western hegemony. China is a threat because it could challenge the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. An economy that is destined to grow larger than the US makes China a threat because a big economy could provide an alternative to the US dollar. From this lens, Japan and Germany were also seen as threats to Western dominance. US will go to war anywhere in the world to protect the US dollar. If the US dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency, there would be no need for 800 plus military bases in the world to defend the king dollar.
You are ignoring wars against countries that do not threaten the dollars dominance. It's very simple, the US goes to war because it's economy is geared towards war. If the American people were compassionate and respectful for life, millions would not have been killed for America's financial benefit. A more morally corrupt society does not exist in this world.
The US is no longer able to compete on equal terms with China. It is a rent seeking economy, which is reason why it has to rely on creating endless conflicts around the world to maintain its world hegemony.
A declining empire is at its most dangerous n will lash out aimlessly in all directions
Exactly.😊
If US dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency , there will be another country goes to war everywhere to create new king dollars. or maybe more than on country tries to do that. The world will be in hell.
Spot on analysis
No country should underestimate China’s strong will, unwavering determination and military strength to unite Taiwan by peaceful means, or by force if necessary. It is not in Australia’s interest to mess with a civil war that has lasted over 70 years!
Mr. White has the right perspective. Australia very reluctantly come to the reality of its Asian existence. It should remove all anti-China weaponry to enjoy prosperity and peace as a good Asian neighbor. Australia faces rising China and much broad economic ties with China; would be foolish to side with US on Taiwan issue. Taiwan is a nationalistic interest for China, while US only has regional hedgemony concern; in time China will become dominant.
Appreciate the conversation 🙏 It's sad to see Prof. Hugh White here muted by mainstream media for his rational views. Hopefully Australia steers clear from another one of America's overseas adventures because this one is looking to have incredibly high stakes for everyone involved.
Your being far too generous describing America's blood lust as "overseas adventures"
Our current government in Taiwan now runs a fake or sham democractic in addition to extremely partisan and corrupted, likely to fail in coming presidential election, except in the case of cheating which is very likely in Taiwan because the current puppet woman president Ms. Tsai had appointed a very very partisan and very radically anti-China ex-govenor to run the election! She would do whatever her sponsors tell her to do. Also now we don't have real check-and-balance nor freedom of press or speech right any more now due to the flaws of the system design, and the current government taking full advantage of it ! Our Supreme Court judges are appointed term by term by a new president. Even the Commissioner who runs the election operation will be appointed by a new president, and our current woman president selected an extreme partisan and anti-China ex-governor to do the job; she got re-elected in 2020! More hurtingly is the naming of new members on NCC which sternly controls media in Taiwan basically are decided by current members, who are all anti-China separatists to begin with because when this institution was set up in 2000 by the 1st separatist government in 2000. Since then they fined heavily or simply terminated licenses of whichever channel who says good things about China or advocate peace between China and Taiwan. So all day long the public only hear good things about the current government or terrible bad things about China. Our presidency also gets to appoint state enterprises that monopolize major sectors like oil and electricity companies, so our incumbent puppet woman president appointed her major wealthy donors or people related to her sponsors who tend be extremely partisan and very anti-China; no wealthy merchants like to be affected by a socialist government like Chinese one. No wonder after she ascent to this throne on 2016, we saw more and more bribery, crimes and government incompetence. The incumbent Party DDP behaves more gangster-like for one of her close adviser turned out to be an ex-gangster!
Our current government in Taiwan now runs a fake or sham democractic in addition to extremely partisan and corrupted, likely to fail in coming presidential election, except in the case of cheating which is very likely in Taiwan because the current puppet woman president Ms. Tsai had appointed a very very partisan and very radically anti-China ex-govenor to run the election; and she got re-elected despite the odds. She would do whatever her sponsors tell her to do. Worse now we actually don't have real check-and-balance nor freedom of press or speech right any more due to the flaws of the system design, and the current government taking full advantage of it ! Our Supreme Court judges are not life guaranteed but appointed term by term by a new president. Even the Commissioner who runs More hurtingly is the naming of new members on NCC which sternly controls media in Taiwan is decided by current members, who are all anti-China separatists to begin with because when this institution was set up in 2000 by the 1st separatist government in 2000. Since then, they fined heavily or simply terminated the licenses of whichever channel who says good things about China or advocate peace between China and Taiwan. So all day long the public only hear good things about the current government or terrible bad things about China. Our presidency also gets to appoint state enterprises that monopolize major sectors like oil and electricity companies, so the incumbent puppet woman president appointed her major wealthy donors or people related to her sponsors, who tend be extremely partisan and very anti-China. No wealthy merchants like to be affected by a socialist government like Chinese one. No wonder after she ascent to this throne on 2016, we saw more and more bribery, crimes and government incompetence. The incumbent Party DDP behaves more gangs; one of her close adviser turned out to be an ex-gangster!
The answer to the question is very convoluted, long winded, pedantic and full of ambiguity. It can be a 10 - 15 minutes video instead of 1-1/2 hrs. Hence, it has lost its effectiveness and benefit. And, the answer remain hanging in the air and incomplete. Sad. They shld choose substance over form to answer the question so that ordinary Australians/viewers can easily understand and appreciate the answer in a more meaningful manner. In US, it is known as "Let's cut to the chase."
As an American I totally agree with his analysis. To be dragged into a war over Taiwan has huge implications for Australia and should be thoroughly thought through way before that happens. I think about the war with Iraq and wonder if our Allies could have brought some sanity into American decision making and avoid that whole miss. To give a rubber stamp to support America in a possible war with China should not be a given. More countries involved in the decision making the better. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a dove. I believe supporting Ukraine is the absolute right thing to do. But Taiwan. Arn’t they officially supposed to be a part of China anyway and to think America could win a war with china who is a hundred miles away and America who’s 6 thousand miles away defies logic and common since.
America is about 8 THOUSANDS miles away and NOT Hundreds. No business to be in Indochina/SEA to create havoc here.
If US continues with the strategic ambiguity stance before trump the region would hv continued without the current tensions. US abandoned this stance with the intention to stir discord in this region to start a proxy war after it sees how profitable their venture has been in Ukraine. Not only making money from stirring the proxy war, it will weaken China after it weakens Russia without shedding one drop of american blood. it is this disingenuous intention that is not been confronted and media and the west is prepared to discuss this agenda treading on the hypocrisy of "protecting" Taiwan. In fact at this juncture, the Taiwanese knows much better and strangely no one is asking them..
Isn’t it great If US goes around the world promoting peace, but it would not be MIC interest because there is no $$$ in peace time.
@@samliew6610 Mark meant China is a hundred miles away, but America is thousands of miles away.
What the pro-war people are not getting is that China is not Russia and Taiwan is not Ukraine.
Taiwan is the Donbass, China is Ukraine, and the US is playing Russia. American soldiers don't want to die for Taiwan any more than Russian soldiers wants to die in Ukraine.
The situation is exactly the same. Ukraine has been trying to recover the separatist DPR and LPR since 2014, and China is trying to recover a separatist province. The moment the US bombs China, the Chinese would be fighting for their lives. Just like when Russia attacked Ukraine. With the added incentive, that they have no where else to go. No country would, or could, accept a billion refugees.
@@samliew6610 he said china is hundreds away and America is thousands away
From the position of any same, rational person, Australia has too much to lose if it chooses a side in this conflict. Why not be neutral? What can possibly be gained from walking head first into an escalating situation? Someone, please make it make sense to me.
Neutrality means you don't have any ally or allies when you need them, because by definition an ally is someone you are side with, and vise verse. It's very simple from a strategic perspective or logic.
The US has been going around the world to force countries that want to be neutral to take a side. Their slogan is "You are with us or against us." As such, a few more countries has gone to the US side for fear of this veiled threat. If they left countries to choose neutrality, the US would be totally alone.
@@gogojest9367 the problem comes when your ally is looking for a fight. Do you try to calm him down, or do you express your willingness to back up your ally hoping that the other guy would back down?
The complicating factor here is that you know your ally doesn't actually want the other guy to back down. Your ally wants to knee-cap the other guy so that he is no longer a threat.
The insanity here is that both your ally and his rival are carrying doomsday devices like the Predator in the movie, that will kill us all.
@@danielch6662 It would be even more logical to join one side when both sides have doomsday devices. Because 1, were their conflict escalated to use doomsday devices, if there is any survivor it would be largely weakened or in a bad shape. So the former neutral state can take advantage and be the last winner. It's just unbearable for them, so the natural and logical thing to do is to eliminate this neutral one/ones before the final confrontation, unless the country is so weak and unimportant in every respective.
2. When one side decide to nuke you for whatever reason, there will be no protection aka nuclear umbrella to prevent them to do so.
@@gogojest9367 And Australia is reachable by hypersonic missiles which China has! Besides, Russia may come to China's aid too because Russia wants a multipolar world, not a unipolar world. Also, Russia totally distrusts the US now andcwould not want the US to defeat her friendly neighbour and strategic partner, China!
Amazing analysis Hugh n James. Hope more Australians can watch your program.
Peace is what we should aim for n not war. No one wins in the war. China today is not China two hundreds years ago. The people are now more supportive of their government and they have been on the defensive for a long long time. Even at its weakest point in history,they defeated the us armies during the Korean wars and resisted the Japanese take over .
Doesn't this all depend on next January's elections in Taiwan? If the KMT are elected as expected then the whole Taiwan issue fades away.
Yes - but US is itching for war. Just like when they did invade Iraq.
America may not accept the result
There would be a second sunflower students movement, maybe even with guns. The America-friendly wing showed in 2014 that they will not accept Taiwan getting closer to China, whether it's the democratic will or not.
Australia's security in the Indo Pacific requires loss of sovereignty, so it comes down to - do you want to go to war with an ally that won't do much to grow your economy or choose peace and grow with the region.
I never liked the term "Indo-Pacific", which is a US invention. It removes "Asia" from "Asia-Pacific". To people living in East Asia, "Asia-Pacific" matters. I don't see why "Asia" should be replaced by "Indo".
The US wants to make the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean into one huge battle theatre. However, the people of the Asia-Pacific don't have to suffer the whims and fancies of the US.
@@katong1953 Disagree. AUKUS would prefer to contain China’s defeat, to the Taiwan Strait. Actions by The West will depend on the Western governments of the day, be it, tomorrow, 2027 or 2049. Remember the West has democracies, not dictatorships. Leaders change. Public opinions change in free societies. The West has twice the economic and power of the United States alone.
@@katong1953 , US always use flowery language to disguise its intention. Lobby is used for bribe. Political donations is for kickbacks, undocumented immigrants for illegal aliens, pay the fines without admission of wrongdoings for guilty, etc, etc. So no surprise Indo-Pacific for East Asia. Some people get fooled all the time. 😂😂
@@petersinclair3997 , false. US used lies, deceptions and misinformation to create wars. BRICS+ economic power and population is bigger than the G7 and US. This does not include SCO, RCEP, and others yet. The petrodollar is in decline. US$ as world reserve currency is slowly eroded away as BRICS nations replace the dollar with domestic currency and bypass the SWIFT system. This means many allied countries including Japan, S.Korea and Europe are dedollarizing to survive. So, massive devaluation of the dollar will cause US economic pains and economic survival (rising national debt ceiling, default of pymts, rapid inflation, bank run, etc). These geopolitical events are not speculations. They are already underway.
Scottish MP blasted US for lying to create wars
ruclips.net/video/a-d9Csq41kg/видео.html
Biden arrogantly mocked Russia now backfired
ruclips.net/video/SY_eNUXQMzM/видео.html
The whole world hates America
ruclips.net/video/a-d9Csq41kg/видео.html
BRICS economy larger than Europe and US
ruclips.net/video/sVtu8OEodFc/видео.html
@@petersinclair3997Just like the war in Ukraine is not about protecting Ukrainian sovereignty and democracy but about having a proxy war with Russia in order to maintain and expand U.S. hegemony, the same tactic is being planned over Taiwan against China for the same reasons. This has nothing to do with freedom and democracy. Our democratic rights and liberty are being slowly eroded in the service of US imperialism. It depends on an largely uniformed and misinformed populace to manufacture consent for more war. The fact that the U.S. has 800 military bases around the globe, mostly encircling China and Russia, and war ships are gathering in the South China seas and yet people are convinced into thinking Russia and China are the aggressors is remarkable evidence of how the propaganda is working.
The thin veneer of democracy in the West masks the control the US actually has over Europe’s leaders. This is the so called International Rules Based Order, which is effectively the neoliberal global economic order that relies on US dollar hegemony. This is slowly coming apart at the seams and in desperation the US and its neoliberal elite partners are attempting to salvage US empire through war, regime change operations and sanctions on anyone who stands up to the empire.
In the meantime the military industrial complex is making a killing in more ways than one. ‘War is a racket’ General Smedley Butler.
This specky speaker is very Biased. Why don't you mention about the aggressive behaviors of your Master US who has waged so many unprovoked wars with so many countries. China has not even fired a shot or wage a single war for the past many decades.
US has 400+ military bases all over IndoChina with extra 4 in Philippines lately - many with troops (even in Taiwan which is part of China) and war weapons and missiles all at the door of China. WHO is the AGGRESSOR?????
+1
he works for ASPI which makes up stories
Agree
@@kitdesilva ah Aspi funded by the US state department, and multiple weapons manufacturers
@@looneypirate3462 Yes & also australian tax payers money wasted on that rubbish
“To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal” Henry Kissinger
It is a clash of idealogy. A scarcity mindset vs a mindset of abundance.
The win-lose mentality is the result of a scarcity mindset, a belief that resources are limited and that one must compete to secure them. This type of thinking leads to a zero-sum game mentality where one person's success is another's failure.
The mindset of abundance recognizes that resources and opportunities can be created and shared, it is possible to move beyond the win-lose mentality and towards a more collaborative and mutually beneficial approach to success.
Western powers engaged in colonization around the world during various periods of history, including ancient times, the Middle Ages, the Age of Discovery, and modern and neo-colonial periods. During the Age of Discovery, European powers, including Spain, Portugal, France, and England, colonized the Americas, Asia, and Africa. In the 19th and 20th centuries, European powers colonized Africa and Asia, while also engaging in neo-colonial practices that continue to this day. Colonization by Western powers involved the establishment of political and economic control over other groups and territories, often leading to exploitation and the suppression of local cultures and populations.
To keep its dominant position, the US is causing deaths and destruction all over the world. To make the world safe for democracy, the US has caused the deaths of tens of millions of people in its conflicts in distant lands such as Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The CIA was involved in covert operations that resulted in mass killings of communists in over 22 countries. Over 500,000 Indonesian civilians disappeared in 1965-1966. The number of wars started by the US since WWII (201), foreign leaders overthrown (36), killed, or attempted assassination (50), dropping bombs in other countries (30), interference in foreign elections (86), and the number of overseas military bases (800).
In the past forty-four years, the Chinese military has not been involved in any wars or used their weapons to kill a single person outside their territory. Despite having a per capita GDP that is one-sixth that of the US, China is enthusiastically expending an enormous amount of its resources to assist in the development of other countries.
It is a choice between death and destruction or peace and prosperity.
Australia has made its choice.
Very good point! I am Taiwanese,I love Chinese, In Taiwan have ten million people like me. So American must fail in this war!
And another 2 million living happily in China
Hugh White is uttering complete nonsense on several points:
1. China is not, and has never intended to pick a fight with the US. It doesn’t need to. Clearly, China’s economic capacity has already surpassed that of the US in every respect. In GDP ppp terms, China is already 20% larger than the US. And, there is no comparison in terms of manufacturing capacity. Similarly China’s influence on the world stage far exceeds that of the US particularly in the global south. These gaps only increase with each passing day.
2. As such, China has no need and no inventive to engage in a war with the US. Time is on their side.
3. On the contrary, the US hegemonic power is crumbling fast. In order to prevent the inevitability, the only tool left in its toolbox is its military power. Even on that front, its lead is shrinking with each passing day. Therefore, it is gunning to pick a fight with China while it still can.
4. As it has done with Ukraine, the US intends to fight China with Taiwan as its chief proxy. Japan will be the other willing proxy. Australia, if so chooses, could end up a proxy as well.
5. Taiwan is a territory of China, so recognized by virtually every nation on the planet. How on earth can the US justify stationing military personnel on China’s soil against China’s will is beyond common logic and in fact illegal.
Would it be acceptable to the US if China were to do the same in Hawaii? Would it be acceptable to Australia if China were to station military personnel in Tasmania? Clearly, the answer is no. It would be regarded as a provocation of the highest order.
It is clear which country is the aggressor here. In spite of the miserable failures in all its military campaigns since WWII, the US is still bent on waging more wars. It is bent on bringing about yet more destruction to humanity.
What do expect from some pleb who worked at ASPI.
When he was introduced as having worked there, I knew exactly what verbal diarrhea he'd be spewing...
Well said 👍
But your facts don't fit the western propaganda narratives....
Your comments is dead right and spot on,
Absolutely right
Don't engage and australian won't be caught in the conflict. Simple
WW2 Japan 😮
"you might be not interested in war but war will be interested in you". Australia with its resources and geographical placement cannot afford to remain neutral. Whereas New Zeald can.
Who provoke who? Siding with Americans is the road to war. All your analysis are useless if you can't contain the American who is attacking so many countries as you speak, Syria, Iran, etc etc. What happened in Afghanistan, Iraq etc and American is still GOD. Please! Stop your analysis and start condemning America to stop any war in this planet.
Very true.
China knows time is on its side and may not even go to war if Taiwan declares independence. It can make life difficult for the island so much so that the Taiwanese will vote out the secessionists and install a pro China government .China needs only to wait a a bit longer to reach a point where it is too powerful for the US to confront economically or militarily.
Why does Australia admit that it always follows its Master no matter what?
Between a declining power and rising power; a war-mongering and peace loving nation, a nation with a zero sum game and a win win mindset; surely it is not difficult to see which nation can offer a better future security and prosperity?
The title should read "How Australia gets itself caught in a U.S.-China conflict"
what does Australians want!!??? economic, food and goods on the tables of the people (China and Russia) or securit, billions worth of weapons (US and UK)?
btw... the west keeps on bringing the Chinese human rights problems to the front BUT conveniently NEVER mention their own human rights horrors committed AROUND THE WORLD
The strongest ever Liberal form of governance (the U.S.A.) is now being challenged by the strongest ever Communist form of governance (the PRC); in effect these are diametrically opposed socio-economic forms of governance and given their respective size and global influence, conflict between them is almost inevitable. Unfortunately, both of these major state powers are now heavily nuclear armed, hence we must do our best to ensure they do not resort to war in an effort to resolve their conflict. It is highly unlikely but Australia could and should play some role in bringing American leadership to its senses, a good start would be for Australia to let the US administration know that Australian involvement in a war between America and China over Taiwan is not a given.
It's simply too easy to say communist system or communist regime to draw differences. To understand China's system today, as an observer, please search for Prof. ROLAND BOER, an Australian, on CGTN- RUclips. The days of communist experience with the Soviet Union in the early founding of Modern China is well and truly buried. It was an eye opener for me to hear Mr. BOER.
China is not communist
@@aliababwa3866 True; although China does have a Communist party (CPC) leading a Socialist form of governance (with Chinese characteristics). As far as the CPC and its leader Xi Jinping are concerned China is still in the early stages of modernising it's unique form of Socialism and their long term aim is that this will eventually manifest in the form of Communism.
The world by itself is safe and secure.The insecurity and fear is otherwise a mentality to suppress another by might and force of kinds that will suppress the targeted subject to defense or submit to their types of rule.
if you need peace come to china but if you need chaos and war please come to US.
Extremely educational!
Why Australia put herself in such complicated position with such artificially imagined nightmares and agony.? Just conduct a respectful and peaceful relationship with all countries absence of divisive and discriminative ideologies.
Australia and Japan sanctioned India after the 1998 nuclear tests. Looks like we Indians have a better understanding of security threats and take a longer term view.
Not running around like a headless chicken which Australia looks like today.
Stay neutral Australia dont let the US drag you down with them.
Very Intelligent Discussion with lots of Arguments and rationales behind it, Once again thank you
US attitude is clear ' my way or highway'. It's Australia who has to decide. Very well articulated that what after, China is going to become an economic giant even bigger than US . How US will conduct such war, crossing Pacific it is not understandable.
I find the lack of public debate on these momentous decisions being made on our behalf very shocking. I wonder how many Australians are aware of the threats and dangers posed by willful ignorance and blind faith in the US-Australia alliance. There needs to be a more robust public debate. Our political leaders are not leading but hiding behind stupid age old Cold war era policies.
Excellent logical analysis thanks Hugh!
Both Aust and to a lesser extent NZ need to reconsider our position of whom to support and more importantly why!
1
the world has changed!
China has grown to become the largest producer and has an excellencct record of intelligent peaceful considered growth.
2.
China India Africa will all follow over time.
Conclusion
We need to work to reset a globally agreed policy of each regional dominant power should have primary influence over its own region and not attempt to influence other regions or loyalties outside there jurisdiction.
Looking at this structure from a south pacific viewpoint.
NZ needs to engage support and work with Australia to build and stabilise our region.
Australia need to reflect this with Indonesia and in turn Indonesia with China.
We no longer look to Britain
We need to acknowledge China.
China will have to share its influence with Russia in the north India in the east and USA to the West.
By acting now we send a clear message to the US.
Otherwise we shall sleepwalk into nuclear war.
You completely ignored the fact that China is a totalitarian state with concentration camps, criminal dictatorship, omnipotent police force, orchestrated media and murderous ideology. How could you compare it with western democracies. It is either hopless stupidity or corruption.
Why should Australia be afraid/suspicious of China? China has never threatened Australia but has had a good commercial relationship with Australia from 1972?
If I'm to believe we live in a true democracy, an issue this large would call for a referendum put to the people to guage public opinion. I am sick of the pessimistic automatic response "referenda almost never pass". I think it diminishes the meaning and significance of referenda generally, and an insult to collective public intelligence. I think putting this question to Australian citizens is imperative, because the 2 world powers concerned have more 'sway' over, (putting it politely), and capable of exerting more 'pressure' (also a polite choice of words), on politicians than they have over the public.
When has China ever threatened Australia??
ASPI receives funding from defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, Thales Group and Raytheon Technologies, all part of the US military-industrial complex. So what do you expect from this ASPI guy to say!!!
Well said
They the MIC are feathering there own nest with weapon sales to Taiwan at the expense of the taxpayer and Taiwan!!
I am surprised that the moderator has not seen it necessary to include a Chinese historian to contribute his view about the Taiwan issue and what it means to China.
If Taiwan is to be the pivotal point for a War....then surely Australia needs to understand deeply what she is getting herself into.
Secondly, both speakers have not brought up the very emotional issue to China and the Chinese people, about the Century of Humiliation and why they will fight to the end to see that it never happens again.
Thirdly, who has the greater motivation in winning this war between China and US over Taiwan??? Australia has to consider this profoundly:
1. China is fighting for her Sovereignity.
President Xi has a popular rating of over 92% throughout China.
2. US is fightng over apparently an Ideology but more so for primacy. Bear in mind the spectacularly fast changing world...about BRICS' membership, China/ Saudi Arabia and Arab nations building close relations, China/Iraq/Iran, China/Africa/ South America close relations and the abandoning of the USD currency in their trading arrangements.
G7 impotence in today's world.
The clarity about the decline of US primacy is on the wall.
The US herself is embroiled with massive, massive domestic issues of social unhappiness, unequal wealth distribution, deep political division, race, economic decline, drugs, violence ..etc
3. US lost just about 2000 men in Afghanistan over 20 years...yes l repeat over 20 years... and their people are no longer willing to sacrifice further their sons and daughters for that war.
In a War over Taiwan..the sinking of a Carrier will mean the loss of 5000 men...and within weeks tens of thousands of American will be dead.
How do you think the folks back home will take this...and for Taiwan!???
4. The probability of a Nuclear war is very high. Do Americans want their cities where Millions will die to be nuked because of Taiwan!???
It would seem wise for Australia to think over very carefully about these issues.
Do not sleep walk into a War with China.
this is a contest between a maritime power and a continental power. no prize for who will win. the watery depth awaits those who fight at seas. USA at its peak could not take Japan at WW2 and North Korea.
Not true. Scott Morrison voluntarily pulled his pants down and bend forward for Trump.
So did his bald-headed defense minister Peter Dutton!
That last question was EXCELLENT! The fact that Pine Gap exists, makes us vulnerable as one of America's questionable 'territories', as was Hawaii when the U.S. set up camp at Pearl Harbour!
Prof. Hugh White is sincere, honest, Wise and brilliant. My contribution to this debate is a 1 liner; IF AMERICA & ALLIES ARE NOT ABLE TO OCCUPY MAINLAND CHINA, AMERICA WILL HAVE LOST THE WAR AGAINST CHINA ! My opinion that such happening will occur is as unlikely to happen as snow falling on Malaysia.
I can only hope that AUS quickly come to it's senses and renounce it's agreement to support the US military's posture toward War with China. A policy of neutrality in Asia must be the adopted policy by AUS...imo.
You know what…
This isn’t the first time that US and Britain have stirred tension in the archipelago.
This reminded me a lot on how the then Dutch East Indies (pre-independence Indonesia) in December 1941 brazenly / recklessly / stupidly declared war on Imperial Japan BEFORE US and Britain did so.
This is explained in detail here: ruclips.net/video/AI_e1E3j1Qg/видео.html
I’m genuinely puzzled why not keep the oil flowing to Japan anyway. Those Dutchmen were just too keen to look strong and show solidarity to both the American and the British perhaps..?
Lamentable tragedy that claimed Australian lives like :
1. Muntok, Bangka island massacre
2. Battle of Java Sea
3. Battle of Sunda Sea
could have been avoided, had the Dutch colonial government exercised some common sense like what Marshall Phibun’s Thailand and Vichy France’s Indochina had negotiated with Japan.
Does this case look serve as a plausible modus operandi of AUKUS to you, my friend..?
That name sounds rather horrible by the way. A(merican) B(ritish) A(ustralian) sounds so much better 😂. Other than the fact that none of those countries want their citizens to remember the disastrous defeat of 1941-1942 ABDACOM alliance.
Geography-wise, Dutch East Indies - Imperial Japan has a lot in common with modern day Australia - China.
All of us that is not in a unthinking mental situation must be aware we should act for our Myanmar National strategicc security.
China official now ignore Australia in whole
America wants to develop Military Bases in Manus Island!!!
ANC will not allow this type of discussion to be televised
Aus was not caught in the conflict
But deliberately walked in
It is a no brianer that the permanen basing of nuclear armed US bombers in Nth Australia hss turned Australia into a nuclear steamed country!
What a great discussion I never thought I'd hear. My thinking is that China will not ever nuke Australia as she's not the party of provocation. However, if in the war scenario Taiwan were to be gained by China, the US will militarize Australia in her own image for a future war. So lose Taiwan but gain Australia. Just postulating as a layman.
Ex Ausie diplomat John Lander expressed a similar view. In his opinion Australia is being lined up as a proxy to fight China on their behalf, so no U.S. blood is spilled. Much like Ukraine. All for US hegemony.
The scary part is that Australia is very likely harboring US nuclear weapons
Great Debate!
After both Iraq and Afghanistan, people of Australia should ask more questions off their government on this.
Morris Chang just prevented Taiwan from destruction by the US with a war between the US and China when he moved the fab for the 3nm and 5nm to Arizona.
So far Aussie policy seems to be living in the past - changing new world with declining us power is emerging- BRICS etc. It should be remembered that Australia support the One China policy so for war with Taiwan is actually a national matter within China that has no relevance for outsiders, especially USA or whosoever. What strategic interest is there for Aussie intervention in a china-taiwan war and china has never threatened anyone on the Asean region
This is a very interesting conversation and most commendable because the speakers were honest and objective. However, from the perspective of the Chinese, there are voids and discrepancies because, the views don’t reflect representation of Chinese culture and norms.
What is most significantly missing with the Taiwan issue is reference to the core issue, that brought about the inclusion of PRC as representing China in lieu of the ROC in the UN and the greater world community- “ The One China Policy “.
All the major members of the UN acknowledged that there was only one China and Taiwan was a province of China.
China’s view of the behaviour of the US and it’s allies is being hypocritical and illegal in interfering with the internal affairs of a sovereign China in agitating and encouraging an integral part to breakaway.
The US and it’s allies are so ready to demonise the Chinese as delinquent in a world that is rule based, but isn’t it understandable why the West doesn’t understand the Chinese ?
The problem is not with the Chinese, but it is with the West which flip flops saying the same thing and inconsistent in its intent.
😊
Until this is acknowledged by the West, there is no likelihood that meaningful communication can be achieved.
However, the real reason is that the West is immoral and deploying this subterfuge of duplicity in communications to justification of their behaviour.
Lee Kuan Yew predicted that Australia was in danger of becoming the white trash of Asia, little realising, it could arise from abrogation to the possession of national pride and respectability.
Interestitious and most fascinatory.
Bravo! This guy has it right!❤ 1:25
Australia is the only remaining interloper colonizer in Asia. It had better be extremely careful on who it sides with, the colonial past or a future where it must live with China, because China has always been there and is not going away. Australia has been there two hundred years and if it cannot live with it's neighbors, it may not live at all.
Analysis starts with facts, except at ASPI, where it starts with a question: Who's paying us?
My good PM for Australia: 1, get young Australian employed. 2, talk less defence.
You seem to ignore the future of hypersonic missiles being put into action?
Nope, u can be caught at between two countries conflict u do have a real independent policies which is the aussies dont have.
It is so good to have listened to yet another brilliant speaker and SCHOLAR of such immense wisdoms analysing on the American relationship with China! China by its origin and history has been a very tough cookie through the journey of many internal war fightings within multiple kingdoms through to the 18th century's multiple foreign invasions by the US, Japan and six other European countries, resulting Chinese lost incredible millions of lives, and extreme poverty because the whole China was completely looted by these foreign invading countries!
The recent rise of China after nearly two centries of being trodden on to savagely treated by European countries, together with horrific brutality from Japan, and all these countries once again want to collaborate together to repeat the history of invading and engulf China!?
WHY? WHY & WHY? Taiwan, Hong Kong Macau are part of CHINESE TERRITORIES AND UNDER THE SOVEREIGNTY & JURISDICTION OF CHINA! These islands are the firewalls of Chinese defensive protections, so why such should come under any country to get involved and propel political conflict and instigate 3rd world war! Both China and India each have the world's largest populations, all countries on this planet should wish these two countries stable, flourish and prosper on their own strengths to support
and feed their nations!
Haven't we seen enough human misery in the recent decades that ship loads after ship loads of refugees being displaced to fleeing other countries! Where our hearts and compassion!
Please acknowledge that Chinese nation's great long struggle with blood and sweat that no country in history has ever struggled & suffered like China!
extraordinary cowardice from Hugh White to be quite frank
Not a easy decision. Henry Kissinger once said. “ To be an enemy of the United States is dangerous but to be a friend is fatal.” Then with the latest slogan from the US administration is either you are with us or you are against us gives very little choice for countries who want to stay neutral.
Your basic premise is already broken. The US is NOT the dominant power in Asia. It is not a member of ASEAN and supports only 3-4 countries. (S Korea. Japan. Phillipines. Australia) Nor does it claim all of the S China Sea as its own territory. It believes in freedom of the seas and would have NO CHOICE if their trade interests are threatened. The question is whether that would be the case if Taiwan is lost to the mainland Chinese.
Australia can play peacemaker. Better do it now.
Always love the realistic analysis of Hugh White, not that I agree with everything he said. The USA is and always will be a great country but we need to seriously discuss as to what extent ...
"It's exceptionalism" that is purely their own view of themselves
The sad thing is they are all located in the northern part of hemisphere. Therefore any nuclear exchange wouldn’t be in the northern hemisphere. They’d pick a sparely populated large area to demonstrate the destructive power of their weapons down under. They wouldn’t want to contaminate the ocean and fishes. Take Fukushima nuclear contamination water release..how they up roared for. If I were an Australian, I wouldn’t sit idly and let the them play gods. Good fortune to you all.
It would make sense only if US war criminals and their cohorts were brought to justice then , protect Taiwan !
Yeah stop shaking in your tennis shoes 😊 we're not war mongers over the ditch in New Zealand 😊 But it's all our protection on the Pacific rim. The trade ways on waters. It's not there island, They been building there own. Lets all build, and help each other 😊
Despite him being called an ‘expert’ on China, Hugh White’s opening statements about China and the reasons for the US-China rivalry are all wrong.
First, it is untrue that the US and China have always fight for hegemony over the South China Sea region. In fact at the Yslta conference and the China-US rapport after Nixon visited China, the US has supported China s position that Taiwan is part of China. The rivalry between them only occurred when Obama recognizing that China like Japan would overtake the US as the worlds number one economy, started the US pivot to China to contain or prevent its further economic development. This, high white either either through ignorance or deliberately hide the history of it, did not state. It is the only reason why the US-China rivalry started; to prevent another economically strong Japan from happening.
Secondly, Hugh’s posturing that China is increasingly aggressive because it wishes to replace the US as the dominant power in Asia is a lie, cultivated by the CIA to give Australia an excuse to confront China for any concocted reason like the Covic epidemic.
South East Asia was a peaceful lake until Obama started the campaign to contain China and created the TPP to exclude China from a regional trade alliance. Trump saw the Obama’s deceit of the US and Australian public and rightly killed it.
Thirdly Hugh started the ASPI on CIA funding whose purpose was to drive Australia away from cooperating with China. In this, Hugh betrayed Australia as the activities of this group in influencing the Morrison’ s government fully, had harmed Australian businesses especially farmers and wine growers and Australian employment. By its unreasonable hostilities China, Australia have lost tens of billions of exports to China causing much unemployment. The wine export to China was reduced from $1.2 B to $10 M because of Morrison’s attack on China encouraged and sponsored by Hugh White’s organization.
To say that Hugh is an expert on China or that he is an Australian patriot are untrue. He is only an ‘expert’ or given an emeritus status in ANU because of US influence on Australian politicians and manager of ANU.
If rated correctly, Hugh’s knowledge of the reformed modern China, is minimal at best and in most things about China today, he is really ignorant. His views are generally reflecting what the CIA pays him to say which is infinitely not credible.
There are many real real experts on China including Mahbubani of the Lee Kuan School of Government to listen to. Hugh White definitely is not one of them.
I’m not entirely Chinese but have about 25% Chinese, 25% viet and 50% Cambodian but identify as an Aussie through and through. I came to Australia in 1983 as an almost 3 year old. My parents escaped the genocide of Cambodia which was made possible by the American coup d’tat with a general Lon Nol.
Only reason for the invasion was the same as the reason america decided to topple the democratically elected president of Ukraine in 2014. Cambodia also has a democratically elected prime minister. But since they chose to remain neutral and not be a puppet and fight their proxy war, got removed from power.
I felt it wrong to question someone’s loyalty to Australia. I love Australia more than my own home country.
Just like every other Asian I know who grew up here.
We all appreciate and respect bob hawk for giving us a chance at a good life. My parents didn’t know any English when they first came but they knew bomb hawk and thank him everytime good things happen as we’d otherwise not have the opportunity.
However, it seems so often we are almost not considered Australian to white america. When I was in primary, I was picked on for being a ching Chong and being black for my darker complexion.
Even the viet guy in Singapore who got hung, John Howard didn’t even try to speak up for him but did for the other people who got caught up. Though on the streets we had issues, but felt he should have at least tried as all it showed is the way Asians get treated and often demonised. If I ever get into trouble overseas, I don’t feel like Australia has my back. Especially after the next round of Asian hate aka yellow peril aka the Asian invasion. Many Asians have been killed since all this demonisation began as to everyone else, all us Asians look alike and it didn’t matter if we’re Chinese or not.
This argument is ridiculous. Taiwan spends less than 2% on its Defense and has 4 months military service. If they can’t take their own Defense seriously then neither should Australia. I can’t see Taiwan coming to Australia’s defense if we were attacked. We stand with Aukus but for once we are on the sidelines with Taiwan. Now comprehensive sanctions, complete diplomatic and economic isolation of China for invading - that’s something I think the nation would agree on. The USA needs to come to its senses on this - there is no way it can win against China, let them take Taiwan for what it’s worth and then completely isolate them. Strategically that makes more sense as China without imports collapses. Thinking about it the yanks have already made a move and started the economic stranglehold of China now ….
Without USA protection, Australia will be overwhelmed by Indonesia the rightful owner. Period.
This constant reference to China's 'assertiveness' is a joke. How many bases have China off the coast of the US? This automatic acceptance of the US side of this view is an embarrassment to me as an Australian
The real reason for going to war = defending good old ways of life for Australia (a.k.a. Post WWII Neocolonial order) 21:30
Australia is a lapdog which is more willing to pick a fight than its master.
I considered Australia the protector of small government of southeast Asia! Australia is the sources of intelligence when the "yellow peril" is abusing small islands .
I hear China has alteady innovated with photon chips and graphite chips!
Too later too late! Too Luther too late!
Disagree with Prof White’s premise . The conflict if it happens would be if America decides to protect the DEMOCRACY of Taiwan and protect the latte’s great silicon chip processing industry which China covets.
Who knows if US will fight ? Maybe maybe not given strategic ambiguity .
One thing for sure USA has moved a lot of the chip processing of Taiwan over to USA already . Thus removing a lure for China .
But Hugh is correct in asking why would America bother ? After all Formosa now Taiwan was and is populated by Chinese people . Part of China in other words .
China regards us in Australia as having chosen USA already !
But frankly I believe we should NOT do so . Don’t leave that decision there till then. Here Hugh is correct it is too late to discuss if the attack by China happens .
My long term bet is that India will be the biggest and greatest power in Asia by the turn of te century
I don’t believe we Inside Australia should get involved
In portiecting Taiwan .
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Dont contribute to any conflict
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China has operational hypersonic missiles!!!! Canberra would be within range of a hypersonic missile!
So make a new alliance with former pacofist stability Japan and build what it is that Australis region requires
The Chinese cannot really win against the Quad because oil supplies to China can easily be choked off via naval warfare by the Americans alone (also via Indian and Japanese naval capability)- that would bankrupt the: Chinese economy until the Russians can ramp up their oil supplies (that could take many many years). Their economy is very sensitive to price changes due to the way profit margins are structured for export markets.
The Chinese economy is nearly bankrupt due to bad debt including massive losses from the BRI trillion dollar program. A war would push it near the edge of a cliff... their political leaders are sensitive to the joblessness and high debts.
Military-wise - the US and Japan can still inflict major attrition to Chinese forces. The Chinese military looks better on paper than it actually is... sort of like Russia - which could not even defeat a much weaker country right next door. The Chinese don't have enough real battlefield experience and relatively poor training. A war would be unwinnable in a bigger sense even though battles can be won....
This is about Taiwan's semiconductor excellence
Potential customers take a number & wait !
Not really . It's important but no sane country would risk demise of their entire navy or country over a chip dominance by either mainland Chinese or Taiwanese Chinese . Both are Chinese.
Take it from me , there will never be any war by US with China because US knows they will lose with their pants down .
China hates war as war is bad for business and China is about business while US thrives on wars without which their GDP will tank and their hegemony be over.
So when time comes for reunification, at most China will blockade Taiwan to submission and no country will dare to touch a single Chinese ship if they are still sane.
China had said , Chinese do not kill Chinese today unlike Western cultures which do not think twice about killing other westerners.
Russia is an East Asia Power, triangulate that. 😅
I FELL ASLEEP 😴 💤 HERE 😮😢...
PLEASE 🙏 LET'S LET'S BE CREATIVE
PEOPLES..LIKE LONG AGO.. PLEASE 🙏
LET'S NOT SPEAK ABOUT...
《■MAGICIANS!!■》...NOR 《■FOREVER... WARS■》 PLEASE 🙏
Ideology is for the gullible mass...
Does china have a Belt and Road program in Australia? How much of Australia does china own?
The question is, how much of Australia does America own? Australia looks more like the 51st of America
We had some but the gov banned it. US are largest foreign stock holder in AusZ, China are number 8 on the list, despite being our number 1 trade partner.
They did in Victoria until that dickhead Morrison ordered it to be torn up.
Lucky for the Chinese, Mr Deng never asked how much does West Own China. HE welcomed foreign investors and led the Chinese Rise.
Please look at fact check on foreign investments in Australia. US, UK are the biggest investors in Australia, followed by Belgium,Japan, HK ( SAR). China is eight on the list. So just think who is controlling our country.
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