The Magic of Bitcoin DCA
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- Опубликовано: 30 сен 2024
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In this video, I discuss the power of dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin, rather than entering via a single purchase.
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) imposes the discipline of buying fewer sats when the fiat price is higher and more sats when the fiat price is lower, thus giving you a lower fiat cost basis.
In addition to dollar cost averaging, it's important to hodl BTC, instead of trading in and out. As Jack Bogle used to say, "time in the market beats timing the market."
Not investment advice! Consult a financial advisor.
Bitcoin DCA calculator:
www.bitcoindol...
CPI chart:
fred.stlouisfe...
"Trading Bitcoin is a sign of lesser intellect":
x.com/Vivek4re...
I am not being paid or otherwise compensated by any company or cryptocurrency project that I mention in my videos. My opinion is not for sale. Please do not contact me with any affiliate or advertising deals.
#Bitcoin
#dollarcostaveraging
Disclaimer
Neither Bitcoin University, nor any of its directors, officers, shareholders, personnel, representatives, agents, or independent contractors (collectively, the “Operator Parties”) are licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisors, or registered broker-dealers. None of the Operator Parties are providing investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and nothing in this video, on this RUclips channel, or at www.Trader.University or www.BitcoinUniversity.com (henceforth, “the Sites”) should be construed as such by you. This video, channel, and the Sites should be used as educational tools only and are not replacements for professional investment advice. Trading or investing in new and volatile assets like Bitcoin can be risky.
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DCA is the way, but I personally just buy whenever I get an income, no matter the cost
Keep stackin
It's pretty similar
I still consider that dca
That would be DCH(dollar cost having)...which is a good idea because of DCH(dollar cost halving).
Another way of saying you already sucked so might as well just go deeper
I buy daily because I can’t let a day go by knowing I could have but didn’t trade in my monopoly money for perfected scarce money.
Here in the UK, so many people think it's wise to hold cash in the bank. I've tried to explain that its a terrible store of value, and Bitcoin is an excellent store of value. I even had a discussion with a colleague on a training course last week who insisted property was the nest investment. I told him i disagreed. The majority of people still think Bitcoin is a scam or a ponzi. I give up trying to tell people, as the majority won't listen. I suppose that old saying "you get Bitcoin at the price that you deserve" becomes apparent here
It's a great sign of how early we are
I’ve recently come to realize that people don’t want to solve their problems in any area of their life because they aren’t willing to take the time to do the research or think outside of the current corrupt system. I first discovered this when going down the rabbit hole around diet and non-pharmaceutical means of treating some mental health issues I had. The same thing is happening now with trying to help people manage financial stress via saving in bitcoin. I try to open the door for people but like you said, you get bitcoin at the price you deserve.
It goes to show that on a fundamental level most people don't even understand what inflation really is.
@@adrianlopez3373 That's so true-- I've had similar experiences. Most people are just fiat normies. It's a mystery how some people are able to break out of the prison, and others never do. It's even a mystery when I look at my own life and how it happened
I started DCA two months ago because I looked back at what I missed out on when I didn’t DCA. I told myself I’m not going to miss out again so I buy daily now
Lol i did exactly the same! Keep it up we will be rich.
Exactly.
DCA removes the emotional aspect of trading.
You don't care for the price. You buy when it's time and you keep it. It's an investment.
But when prices crash like they just did. I allocate a bit more or I try to put 2 or 3 times my regular deposit in one shot.
DON'T sell!
A question, when the price dropped from 69k to 16k last cycle, did you not feel any emotion to see you bag continuously deflate to 20% Or did you have any thoughts that you could have protected some of those gains by converting into stablecoin or fiat to then deploy again at the lows in 2023? If I'm honest I did, and this time around I'm taking some off the table in Q4 and Q1 to deploy when price is lower during what I think will be the usual inevitable bear market.
DCA since 2014 🙏🏼
Fucking legend
you have to be millionaire by now
Bought in 2014. Magical? Just ask me 😎
Best quote ever.... "Trading Bitcoin is a sign of lesser intellect" - Michael Saylor
Your video serves as a calming beacon, particularly when financial markets are in tumult. Your analysis offers a prudent course of action, fitting seamlessly with the current stage of the economic cycle. Nonetheless, one cannot overlook the expanding mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies since 2019, as well as the fervent discourse surrounding prospective Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Might these elements sustain the market in this particular cycle? Speculation abounds that we are on the verge of a significant market upswing, making this a moment of great import for any discerning investor. My own portfolio, enriched by 6 bitcoins in a mere seven-week interval, serves as a compelling testament to Kelvin Hurdle financial wisdom.
I heard his strategies are really good, How do I reach your Coach/mentor...
Kelvin Hurdle program is widely available online.
Kelvin Hurdle has delivered solutions above my expectations over a year we have worked together. I would refer him in all forms.
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
It really helped trading with Kelvin Hurdle analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
GOOD MORNING 🌄 TO ONE OF THE FINEST INTELLIGENT VOICES IN BITCOIN ❤
Good morning!
''There is no second best.''
It's true
If it wasn't for those Lettuce hands out there, I would own far less Satoshi's.
So true. Those lettuce hands will be buying back in at $300,000 to their regret
Buy $200 with every check, we were at $59000 the day I got paid..bought an extra $100 worth 😊
I get your point, but the counter arguement is that Bitcoin is not a tame lion and can God-candle any moment and it may be worthwhile putting any spare cash into BTC as soon as you earn any. It almost looks cherry-picked the dates you chose, I'm sure there could've been other dates chosen where if you invested in a price so low we never got back down to it, it would've been better in such a scenario than DCA. DCA makes some sense due to volitility, but the lower the volatility, the more it makes sense to have as large of a principle as soon as possible and then just HODL and chill.
Also, DCA takes time to put money into an exchange and leave some of it there for a while. Non-DCA is in and out like a gas station.
Good point, DCA is largely a psychological thing, because almost everybody is afraid to go lump sum at the wrong moment. But indeed, if you believe an asset will go up over time the best time is now and get rid of your fiat paper asap.
Mk more subscribers than Swan!
I'm in a hobby rock band that plays covers and originals. We decided to put all the money we earned into BTC because we all have regular jobs and didn't need the money. We played throughout this last bear market (2022, 2023). Every time we played a gig, some for $300, some for $500, a few for more, I reminded us, "Hey, if BTC does what it has done, its like we are playing for twice as much!"
We've like 3x since then. We originally thought once we got to like $50k invested, we all go in together, form an LLC and buy a rental. But slowly and surely, we've realized BTC is pretty great and we haven't sold and probably won't for the foreseeable future after learning about the post halving bull run.
Anyways, not quite DCA'ing on a strict schedule, but, wow, you keep investing in it for a few years and it is amazing.
Daily Cost Average, no matter how much! 🎉❤
DCA is the magic sauce for all investing. I used to DCA into an S&P index fund. It did alright for the time. The one annoyance was some taxation of dividends that some of the stocks in the fund paid out. That took money that would normally have been just reinvested back into the fund. DRPs are also nice when you can get in on them.
All this was pre-bitcoin.
Knowing your personality is also important. I'm one of the people with a "sign of lesser intelligence" 😂 but my solution is to set aside a very small portion for trading, that way my ADHD can be satisfied. It doesn't matter if i win or lose, i just don't want to be sitting still. So it's a good way to protect the 98% of my BTC by just playing with the 2% 😅
I think that's a really good strategy-- I do similar things in other areas of my life to "trick" my brain
There have been quite a few people who were successful at trading it!
I never have but your channel is VERY fact driven!
Comparing S&P returns for 30 years (why 30, it is much older than that. Nice cherry pick.) with a new asset such as BTC that has been in existence for less than half that time and stating they will behave the same (without justification!) is F minus work. Not looking at the data we have for BTC and verifying that the 99% rule held is even worse. Tax havens are possible, so trading BTC can have zero tax penalty. Saylor is a genius. I know of nobody who could present such flimsy evidence and have the audience lap it up.
These fat tail return distributions are found across all financial assets like stocks, bonds, commodities, etc. I believe that I have seen slides where he presents the same data for BTC
Well I love your work Matt, but I will be DCAing out 50% of my BTC starting Q4 2024 and ending end of Q1 2025, weekly or bi weekly.
I will HODL the remaining 50%.
Starting in early 2026 I will be DCAing bitcoin weekly, with the USDC/USDT that I traded my BTC for, plus I'll add more income from early 2026 and into mid 2027.
I willing not be diamond handing my whole stack again like I did in 2022 during a 1 year bear market! It doesn't make sense to me to do this.
It's your decision, but there's no guarantee that the 4 year cycle repeats. There are also real risks to holding USDC and USDT. Not trying to change your mind, since everyone knows themselves best. I'm far too worried about fiat black swans to do a strategy like this. It's like jumping on and off of a life raft, and assuming that you'll always be able to get back on the life raft. Of course, if you are going to panic and sell at the bottom, then maybe your strategy is better
@@Bitcoin_University Thanks Matt, I appreciate your reply. Perhaps the 4 year cycle may not repeat into the future, although my 50/50 plan would cover for that eventuality. This way, I don't feel regret if I hodled the lot down 50+% and likewise, I don't have regret if I were to take the lot out, say two thirds away from the top(who knows where that would be) and we don't get a significant bear market.
I don't think that the 4 year liquidity/election cycle changes over the next 5 years or so and smart investors and many whales will still dump on the little guy. Maybe the drawdown next time won't be 80% however 🤷🏻. I didn't sell the bottom last time when I got in around 40k having rode it all the way up to 69 and then all the way back down to 16k. I doubled down from 20k upwards and I continue with my conviction with Bitcoin, long term.
I think you make a fair point re fiat black swans however so that's food for thought, although the hold of stablecoins/fiat would only most likely be for 1 year.
On the flip side of that, re holding BTC, I have one big concern. If CBDC's are implemented across the world, this could result in the orchestrated switching off of all on and off ramps which would have a devastating consequence to bitcoins value, adoption and price. Also you have previously said in videos that have addressed this, we don't need banks and Government approval for P2P transactions but what good is that with a crippled price, and what physical day to day living items would we want to trade it for and who would be willing to accept the trade of bitcoin for food, gas utility bills etc?
Can’t beat lump sum buying
Larry fink was suggesting that nations will no longer be able to handle their countries national resources and infrastructure alone. He suggests they will need capital markets to assist. He even suggests that a % of retirement money he manages can be forced into this buying spree. And further suggests that these corporations can then enforce ESG rules upon the respective nations. It is the corporatization of a nations critical infrastructure and resources. A new fascist colonialism of sorts. Coin bureau did a piece on this. My question is… Can bitcoin help us with this attack?
My investment philosophy is to buy high and sell low and I’ve been exorbitantly successful.
Are you not losing that way ?
😂😂😂😂😂
@@aguochagerald2771 yeah, but it doesn’t hurt because I make that the goal, so I never end up disappointed!
Lawak lu jimi
What do you think of Dollar Cost Averaging for profits?
Not for BTC though!
DCA'ing daily (or semi-daily) for the past approximately 30 months. During the bear market I was putting in heavier amounts of capital. I've slowed down a bit this year after the ETF bull run. I must say one thing - DCA works like a charm. But it is very tough sometimes. During the pullbacks towards 15k I almost run out of cash.
Just dca’d this mornin’
Hi Matt, I do agree that DCA is magic but, historically, after the halving the hyperbolic bull starts.
Let's say you have 100K in cash or stocks sitting on the sideline.
Would you still DCA or would you lump sum right now?
I'm looking at how much BTC one can buy rather than the fiat return.
I would personally lump sum, simply because I wouldn't want that much money sitting in a fiat bank, where the exits can be closed at any time
@@Bitcoin_University lump sum first and DCA after. Great strategy!
Perhaps I wonder if it would make sense to adopt a weighted DCA, but this is probably a detail.
Lump sum then dca then cold storage baby! 🎉🎉🎉
This is one concept I have struggled with and agonised over since my journey began in march 2023. Seems to make more sense to pay in over a three month period a year before the halving and sell a year after the halving. I do know however that a DCA strategy actually does guarantee exposure to the top and to the bottom! Guess it also depends on your time horizon with BTC…
Lose all you money!
Better to say: Lose all of your fiat and gain real money (Bitcoin).
@@BobE_Nagesh blablablabla
Not sure about the timing and intellect lol, there is plenty of evidence that a simple 10 month moving average filter outperforms buy and hold across numerous asset classes. I haven't run the numbers yet, but eyeballing the monthly chart back to 2014 it looks like the simple 10 month MA would be effective on Bitcoin as well
It's very simple to curve fit data and fool yourself. If this actually worked, everyone would be a hedge fund manager and billionaire
Savage. Should put paid to the "i only trade to get more bitcoin crowd".
Trading bitcoin is a mug's game .
Going up against professional its a easy way to lose money
Kaspa comes to save Bitcoin
2016 been on a bitcoin standard I rarely use fiat anymore.
I ask several employers just for btc only and yes I get laughed at still for wanting btc over fiat.
Thank you Matt! Amazing as always!
Trading bitcoin is for those who are not trust funded, and need to put food on the table.
We need to take chips off the table from time to time.
Sometimes I think we're "too early" to BTC. Like yeah it'll go crazy in fiat terms, but not within our lifetimes 😮💨
If you DCA'd into QQQs you'd be far more profitable
Over what time period?
DCA’ing into Bitcoin is something that I hold dear to my heart. It’s the only way I try to introduce others to buying Bitcoin. I’ll show them this video and that website from now on on thanks Matthew 🙏🏽
Right up there with Einstein and compounding interest.
Id say just right up there on its own. Compounding interest is basically the return on iuo which is the problem we are trying to solve. Lending money is usury at any interest rate at my opinion. Any number needs to be based on reality and thus any return should be based on a stake in equity.As soon as people do not get their fixed amounts in their head they usually start looking around for other people's money to pay for their entitlement.
I buy at least 25 dollars a day
I set up bi-weekly $250 DCA in 2021 to coincide with my paychecks. Despite immense financial pressure I left the DCA in place even after losing my job. Best choice I ever made. It still tick tocks twice a month to this day.
Bitcoin Is 👑
Matt, your channel is absolutely amazing. I say with great respect that the single mistake I have seen you make repeatedly is that sometimes you are a bit too loose with your maths. In this video, 20% annual inflation over three years is a 72.8% increase, which is not "about 60%".
Still, though, another great video! Thank you for everything you do.
But it hasn't been 3 years yet (that would be November 2024). Check my math, and I think you will see that it is right
Is there any way to conveniently non-KYC, DCA?
I'm thinking Bisq possibly, but at first review, it seems rather cumbersome.
You can cut out bad habits like smoking, drinking etc and replace the cost with bitcoin… and forget you even did it. You won’t even car about price action.
After I became debt free, I pretend that I still make a mortgage payment but in reality I am just paying MYSELF INSTEAD. I don’t care about price because my outlook is 20 years into the future.
what's a bitcoin? my mom told me its a scam.
@@SimonSquibb-fj1mp digital property
I have money in the bank, I'm thinking of taking it and hodling in btc. Just let the money for expenses in the bank. My question is, should I DCA the value or buy all in btc at once?
Thanks for the tip Matthew. I doubled my monthly DCA, divided it by 4. Now I DCA weekly. The math you showed cinched it for me :)
Inflation is not how much the price of goods and services increased. Inflation is how much the supply of money increased.
I think it is fine to have a trading lot as long as you HODL a long term core.
Years ago I would take Bitcoin profits, but never again. Bitcoin hasn't changed, but the world (finally) has. People are now beginning to understand that they don't just want Bitcoin, but they 'need' Bitcoin, and they're not getting mine!
Victor Hugo said (wrote), _"Nothing else in the world...not all the armies...is so powerful as an idea whose time has come."_ Bitcoin is that idea for this time and this place.
And the government continues to play their game of slow suicide with -'Money- Currency printer go brrr.' *RIP* Fiat ⚰
the magic of having dispozible icome
It's a blessing that not everyone has unfortunately. But people who have made real sacrifices to acquire BTC (like moving locations, sleeping in car, etc) have been richly rewarded. I've spoken with many of them over the years
Insane for the block chain....just Hodl 😊
Matthew , I’m seriously considering playing the btc four year cycle of selling most of the btc at the peak usually 18 months after halving and then buying back during the bear. What do you think? Of course , I’ll be monitoring the btc power log model
It's a terrible idea, to be frank. Power log is voodoo and has zero predictive power. 4 year cycle is not baked into stone. Tops and bottoms are impossible to time. What are you going to do if you sell your BTC at a local top and then it melts up another $200,000 and never comes back down again?
@@Bitcoin_Universitybob lukes has doubled his btc holdings doing that
@@Bitcoin_Universityone of these cycles exactly that will happen
*publish
DCA all the way! $10 a day adds up and you actually get to benefit from the price volatility rather than lose your mind whenever it dips. That being said, I’m glad I could convince my partner to cash out her 401k and dump it into btc at around 35k. Those gains help me sleep better at night! 🍻
Hey Matt, have you taken a look at Debifi? hopefully you can make a video about that
DCA is a good strategy when markets tend to go down. And also have to talk about UTXO management if you are DCAing a lot.
Yes, best to wait until you have at least 1 million sats to withdraw
Daily DCA is better than Weekly or Montly?
Just one of many of your under rated videos.
Consistently excellent content rendered in a calm soothing voice. Much appreciated.
Kratter videos are my adult equivalent of having a story book read to me before bed. Relaxing information calms the mind and lets me drift off to sleep.
Thank you, Matthew. Answered my lingering question, I think. DCAing the same amount every month is great. May not matter or be a shot in the dark if you break that amount up into 4 equal weekly buys. And buy the dips if you have a little extra.
I always buy the tops
Buy the tops forever
20% a year is 72.8% inflation over three years
Yes true, but it hasn't been 3 years yet (from November 2021)
@@Bitcoin_University Good point! Thanks for clarifying!
Or save your money during bear market, put everything you saved into Bitcoin only when the accumulation phase begins (like beginning of last year) and then buy more little by little until end of bull run when you sell, repeat
And how many cycles have you successfully pulled this off for? Hindsight is 2020
Hey Matt, love your videos! Short and to the point is perfect for the ADD 😅
Are you familiar with Nostr? Would love to see a video of you going through it if you’re interested. Thanks again for your hard work!
Probably the person who bought lump sum at the ATH will still be more than ok in the medium to long term.
They definitely will be
Thanks Matt 😁
does pegging in and out of liquid offer any privacy as a result?
DCA - this is the way ….. I just learnt if I wait for price I don’t have the money ….. DCA I just don’t even notice it I buy weekly every Monday when price is up I just adjust the DCA when the beautiful BTC is ever down I just revert back to the higher DCA ……
Stay Humble.
Stack Sats….
sorry, but I'm still confused re DCA
You buy a fixed amount (like $100) of BTC every week or month or whatever, while ignoring the price. People do similar things with stock index ETFs like SPY
Long term OG HODLer here. Saylor is right. Another reason DCA works so well, when buys are automatic they actually happen! If you try and smash the BUY when you feel like it you will be too scared to buy when price dips, and buy more when you get excited seeing it go up. People right now for instance should be buying. But they will wait and buy the new ATH. This is why price accelerates after new highs, they chase price higher and higher. Euphoria, exhaustion, crash. Wash, rinse, repeat.
2:57
i agree, cpi is not inflation
perhaps could show the M2 growth from FRED page, nice plots there
that will show increase in money supply and true inflation - not the scam that is CPI
appreciate the effort, Matt!
Ideally I do a DCA/buy the dip hybrid. Where I buy periodically, but if it dips I try to scrounge up more. I'm super fiat poor right now so I missed the dip, but I'm in the middle of a USD Speculative attack right now so I'm technically buying every month at 55k no matter what the price is. It ain't much but it's honest work! If it dips below that I'd have to sell a kidney to buy more.
I prefer to lump-sum buy when we are 1-2st dev. under the power law trendline, and sell a little (partial DCA out) when we are 1-2 std devs above the trendline.
Could you do a video about Bitcoin atm's?
DCA daily and every January I max my bitcoin Roth IRA. So excited to see how bitcoin will shape the world over the next few halvings!
Hodling since 2021 and will until 2121
Legend
Hi matt i have a question.
I am planning to buy an appartment before 2030. Do you think i should hodl and sell in 6 years for me to buy it or hodl forever but not buy the apartment but rather rent it ?
Thanks a lot
BTC is property. Would you rather have BTC or real state? You can put your BTC to work by lending at HodlHodl, for instance.
I think the price of BTC will go up much more rapidly than the price of apartments over the next 6 years. But there may be personal reasons to buy an apartment, like family formation, kids, etc
Comment from Sunny Bradenton Florida 👍 Thanks as always Matt
Some people just get it and some don't if ur looking for faults its never going to work u need to study the network
Thx Matthew
Day 61 of telling Matthew his uploads are appreciated!
Selling off BTC will never make sense to me.
DCA all the way. While I may not be as consistent as tick tock next block, I do stack as often as I can. It's like a glorious fiat enema when I stack.
haha
Is it advantageous to sell a portion of my Bitcoin holdings at a high point in late 2025 to buy back more when the price falls in 2026?
Nope
Exposure is better than timing
I use my credit card cash rewards.
Impressive
Buy & hold for dear life!
Great video
🤑
excellent as usual
Need to trade. Don't fall in love with your investment...
That's exactly how every poor person and get rich quick person thinks. I've never met a millionaire or billionaire who thinks that way, and I've met quite a few
@Bitcoin_University ur already a millionaire and don't think like that just from ur own experience
That 1 year and 1 day hits different!
If you hodl forever, capital gains taxes are zero
Exactly!
It’s magic 🪄