whilst wales odd of getting knocked out in the quarters are better than you winning it, they arnt that different. best of luck. We dont havea chance this yr, so it has to be you guys
As a Scot in the same pool as Ireland and South Africa, I somewhat begrudge Ireland's recent dominance. That being said, if Scotland dont make it out the pool, I will support the bhoys in green
The two final games for us happen before the Quarters. If we get passed them we win it. Honestly, thinking about it now, I think that's a good thing for us. Get the big games out of the way early gives us the best chance of having Sexton on the field when we need him most. The chances of Sexton getting injured before the final is incredibly high.
To think that the hardest games are at the beginning of the tournament is a terrible thought. Also, I'm not sure to understand why it would be easier after the quarters anyway
Im English, but i really love this Irish team. Excellent players, experience and fantastic depth. They have completely bought into Farrell and his gameplan. They seem a tight team which will bear fruit as the tournament heats up I wish them all the best
I might just be young and naive, as I've only really experienced the 2015 and 2019 world cups, but this World Cup feels different. We weren't contenders coming into 2015, and im 2019, we had our faces kicked in by England and Wales in the preceding 6 Nations. Coming into 2019, we had beaten the All Blacks twice in our history. This world cup, we have beaten them 3 times this world cup cycle. We've also beaten every tier one side within the last 2 years. The belief that this will give us in a quarter against likely the ABs or France is not a small thing. On a different note, this World Cup could be massive for Ireland off the field too. Everyone in Ireland, even if they were born two decades after the fact, has been told the heroics of the footballers at Italia 90. A quater final win might honestly be enough to gain that mythological status. The rugby team is also one of the only teams that is cross-border. That means that it's possible for someone from the Shankill road in Belfast to line up alongside someone from the Gaeltacht of Connemara in green. Im not saying we'll go all Nelson Mandela 1995 Invictus on it, but it might go some way on both sides of the border in convincing people what the people of this island can do when we work together.
You're dead wrong about the 2015 World Cup. We had won the previous two Six Nations titles leading into that tournament. We were tipped by the Irish media to win the whole tournament. As usual, we lost at the quarter final stage. History repeats itself. We don't have a chance of winning this World Cup, unfortunately.
Really happy to see some love for Conan, he’s been a consistently great player and even had great work rate during his period of ill health. Class player and great to see him get some recognition for his great effort.
I remember when everyone was saying that Gatland was crazy for picking him for the Lions Tour. His contribution in attack (specially on the wide channel) is priceless.
Ireland are definite strong contenders - only trouble is their pool and the side of the lop-sided draw they are on - they will need to play Sth Africa and Scotland to get to the quarters - then either France or NZ to get to semis - and then two more tough matches to win - that's a lot of high quality wins and a lot has to go their way. For the first time they have the depth and mental fortitude to do it, as well as the talent and coach but it is still a tough ask. If not Ireland then France is my call, which I say with admiration as a die hard AB fan.....
As an Irishman I think this is the first time in history that the ABs are not the favourite gir the WC but I think despite their turmoil over the last year or so they are still dark horses, never write off the ABs that's a lesson we Irish learnt the hard way in many occasions and they could surprise and win it....
Sometimes you want the tough games to keep you focused and motivated. Liverpool's best Champions League runs have generally been when they were stacked against excellent teams all the way through.
@@seanosullivan2479 I actually think that's a wild prediction. If Ireland manage to win those 3 massive games, as well as a few others, I think Irelands squad will be on its last legs. Usually teams dont win tournaments before they have ventured deep a couple times, and learned what semis and finals are like
"The task ahead that seems simple in a 10 year plan, but very very different once you're stood on French soil, waiting for kickoff." Litteral chills, made me realise how close we finally are to the first kickoff
I’m glad you helped explain the school system as being critical to ireland and Leinsters success as I think too many people think they can just follow the Dublin school system and success will follow. On your list probably two other rugby “cities” are Edinburgh and Sydney. Former has 4 decent rugby schools (so too small compared to Dublins) and Sydney is competing with rugby league and Aussie rules
I feel a lucky draw is very important and hands the advantage to countries with huge talent pools like New Zealand. Ireland still only need a few key players injured to go from excellent to good/average.
This man is far and away the best analyst of this wonderful game, puts every single English pundit to shame (maybe it's cuz he's Welsh lol). I remember a very famous podcast with prominent rugby players, and his name was mentioned because he did something for BBC. It was pretty disrespectful imo, because 1, they did not even take the time to even pronounce his name correctly and 2, you could tell they never even watched a single video. They should have, they would have learned more about rugby instead of their own biased (and incorrect) opinions
As a Bok supporter, pool placing does not matter as long as we make it through there is no easy game ( Fr/NZ) If not Boks I do hope a team from our side of the draw makes it through it would possibly be one of the most deserved WC trophies. It is possible that SA / IRE could need to beat the top 6 ranked teams in the world in a row.
As an Irish supporter, I agree completely. I'd far sooner lose a game at the start than at the end 😅 Those pool games will be challenging, with more of the same to follow after, and I'd love to see whoever comes out of it go all the way - it'd be hard-earned and well-deserved! And that's an excellent point re the top 6, well spotted. That'd be an incredible way to win it! 😃 I've never looked forward to a WC this much! Fingers crossed we'll get loads of fast, fair, skillful rugby, with as few injuries as possible. No matter who takes the trophy home, it's looking like we're in for one hell of a tournament! 🏉🏆🥳
@@michaeleager4635 they (and Scotland too) are in the top six. So they may have to beat the other five of the top six. We'll give them a pass on having to beat themselves 😅
I think Andy gets what the world cup requires better than most coaches, so I think emphasis and further development won't be an issue. In terms of blueprint on beating Ireland I'd be much more concerned by Englands performance than La Rochelles despite the player overlap leinster play very differently to Ireland. Hopefully the coaches will have enough time to work through the exploited weaknesses in the England game (and boks ANS game). Definetly going to be a nervy tournament
It's a cruel pool draw. We might actually play to our potential at a world cup for once, and it might not matter. We've had a great run, but the reality is it's a coin toss between the top four sides.
But teams like NZ, France, Scotland and South Africa also have the same problem. It will take a lot out of their players and if their depth isn't as well thought out - they will start to struggle earlier. South Africa are the only team that can withstand that level of attrition but I also feel like Ireland have invested very heavily in depth and will sustain it too. Once they get out of the group and into the knock out stage it will be anyones game. Ireland have the balls, the men and the stamina to back themselves this time so it will come down to who wants it more not who has more. A place Ireland haven't been at before, so this time we can't just expect any team to win but we can say Ireland has as much chance as any other potential for the world cup.
@@LeMerchwhat are you talking about, Ireland both times were big favourites Vs Argentina in quarters, and the difference was Argentina wanted it more. Ireland have had 3 great chances to make RWC semi finals, and failed 3 times, it will take a monster effort to overcome that, and if they manage it, they will be exhausted for the semi! Ireland at worst will not get out of the group, ala England 2015, and at best will fall apart in the semi final.
It’s actually irrelevant. Topping the group is meaningless. There’s no “high road”. First or second place and you meet either France or NZ. And have no control over which one. And they’re both equally tough. Boks are rightly focusing on the Scotland game. I reckon they should play their b team against Ireland. Rest up for the quarters
As an Ireland fan, I think it's very possible that they can win RWC based on current form, hunger and coaching nous. It will require some serious luck though. Here is my prediction -- if they can finally shake off the QF hex (by beating either NZ or France in QF), they will go on to win it. This team is special!
Ireland have never had the depth of quality for a world cup, they do now. Its why the relentless pressure startegy works so well during the 6 nations, the back-up reserve player is still a class test player. Whereas before it'd be some half-decent player from a province.
@@johnmc3862 well u the 1st who said this the rest off the world already celebrates irelands victory,some off them who didnt know still celebrates ireland win 2019 wc...
Sexton then .... Ross Byrne. That's about as deep as a toddler's paddling pool. Byrne showed in the ERC final that he couldn't take control of a game when the pressure was on. He would face that intensity or more in crunch pool game or a 1/4. He doesn't have it. If age or injury gets Sexton then it could be 10 in a row for Ireland. And Sexton has to do a full WC campaign (the key games) for the very first time at 38 - it's a tall order.
To who though? Unless Eddie makes Australia a force again, big if but very possible, Ireland would be favourites against everyone else on that side of the draw.
@@EatDeze It was probably the worst Irish performance in the last 2 years where we did everything in our power to lose and Australia still couldn't win, that if anything would make me concerned if I was Aussie as Ireland wont ever be that bad again.
I am a South African my money is on the Irish taking it. Previously they peaked to early. 2007 World cup & 2019 as well. This time tough the URC has shown the 2 top Irish teams are world class players with big match temprament. So out of that the national sqaud same mentality & here you go they winning the world cup.
As an Irishman, I don't see Ireland beating France to win the World Cup, but I appreciate you showing some respect to the Irish team. There is certainly something different about them this time. Some the comments regarding Ireland on here you could find on the walls of a public toilet.
Usually its the noise around an Ireland team that build expectation for the World Cup, the impression I've gotten this time around is that the squad and coaching staff are building the expectation and inviting the pressure while the rest of us are quite skeptical. Its hard to be optimistic because we've been in this position before heading to a World Cup, not to mention the draw, but I like the all or nothing attitude in the Ireland camp atm.
Can’t beat the crushing experience of 91 My Dad (who’s Irish) was up dancing a jig and then ITV cut to an ad break and get back just in time to see Lynagh Hoover in the corner
Last world cup I thought Ireland were just holding back some plays and that Schmidt had some tricks up his sleeve, I was wrong. Can only hope Andy Farrell took note of this and has dozens of plays and attacks ready to use in September
POM, Beirne, Hansen, Aki and Henderson add so much to the Irish 23. As a Leinster fan, if they can stay fit, we have a chance. Especially Beirne, Hansen and POM
It's a 23 man game now. Some of the finishers are better with Ireland too e.g. Murray, Bealham. Also, I hate overhyping young players... but Jack Crowley's performances in the semi final and final of the URC suggest he could be very very good.
Bierne is ridiculous, he’s like playing with cheat codes. Absolutely slaughtered my nz boys in the last test of the series. I’ve got nothing but admiration for the guy.
I would say that ireland could have lost the English game. However that was due to putting in a very nervy performance coupled with England showing some real pride. I think ireland have the skills to do very well provided they don't go into their shell.
mate I love how you break down this game. I just want Ireland to make it past the quarters. They need to prove that and clear out a long term ghost. It all comes down to whether you believe that Ireland were peaking over the last year, or simply getting stronger. I've got to believe that they have been targeting the WC all along, but my gut says that an insane draw that in no way represents the current landscape is going to be too hard.
@@everythingentertainment2518 I've been disappointed too many times. My biggest concern is injuries because we're going to have to play two of the top 5 ranked nations in the world, including the notoriously physical Boks, and two of the most physical tier 2 nations. We lost in 2015 because we lost players like O'Connell, POM and Sexton to injury. I think there are going to be injuries again, especially given how old Sexton is now. Thankfully we have more depth than in 2015. I think if we get past NZ or France we've got a great chance, but I'm a bit concerned if we can get past either with the injuries we're inevitably going to have.
@@EoinJoyceMapping Another comment on here mentioned that there's a real possibility (dependant on results of course) that Ireland or SA could end up having to beat ALL of the other top 6 ranked teams to win. Which is both terrifying and exhilarating 😂
@@elainec6687 Ireland play SA and Scotland in the pool (4th and 5th respectively) then they'll end up playing France or NZ (2nd or 3rd) then possibly England in SF (6th) and whichever of France or NZ they haven't played so that's correct Ireland could play all of the other top 6 teams.
The single most important reference not adequately covered here is that Ireland went to New Zealand and won in a 5 game series which replicate RWC conditions. This winning mindset set them up for the Six Nations. The URC win in South Africa against a big physical team has given the likes of Crowley, Nash and Coombes preparation in the white heat of finals. The loss to Rochelle was an important tactical lesson in not repeating the same attacking plays that are easily worked out. Andy Farrell has coached his squad to problem solve on the hoof and to be a team which finds a a way to win. Ireland will go further in this RWC than they have ever been before. Just how far is massively exciting.
Irelands biggest hurdle will be the massive target on their back. It took the ABs many world cups to figure out how to turn that into a strength. Being the best in the world leading up to the cup doesn’t really mean much anymore.
@johnDoe-pb2ft it means nothing when they game begins. The opposition don't care what their opponents ranking are. You can be sure SA won't give a dam about rankings when they play Ireland.
It so true Ireland are new to having a target on their back. However, Sexton has played 100 years of rugby and has experience in world cups. We never lived up to our potential in world cups because we only focused on beating the hard teams and somehow dismissed weaker teams. This means we have built up enough experience to know that we should not underestimate the weaker teams. That's why we are playing our strongest team against teams we should be able to beat easily. In the post interview talks, we're always talking about the next game.
@@NegativeAccelerate I have no doubt Ireland have every chance of winning the cup, they have certainly shown they can. Whatever has happened on the lead up to the RWC is irrelevant at this point, they have the skill, game plan and every other attribute - they just need to be able to handle the pressure of being the best.
@@rieske2000 Regardless of the sport, you always need some luck when it comes to winning World Cups. Especially as nine teams have a realistic shot at winning this tournament if things go their way. France’s lucky break might be that for once, they avoid that meltdown.
It's Saturday afternoon (16th September) before the Ireland v Tonga game. Romania (82-8) already under the belt. Predicting an attritional (20+ point) win against Tonga for the Irish and then the thermostat gets turned up to the max for the Saffas and Scotland. I suspect 'Papa Farrell' and Co. have a few new moves up their sleeves which will likely be debuted against SA next week. Having seen the French and ABs both play two games already, I think Ireland would prefer to meet the ABs in the QFs - which means they need to beat both SA and Scotland to top Group B. Whether a winning squad in green survives all that attrition remains to be seen but should they (God forbid) reach the SFs (and or Final) they will have beaten all the best teams in the competition to get there! Best World Cup Irish team ever facing the worst World Cup draw since JohnBoySexBottle was a lad - and that's a long time ago!
You couldn't be more on the button with Irelands youth system. From the age of 12 you're basically playing professional rugby, you train 4 times a week and play once and you are coached by quality coaches. In the big schools in Leinster and Munster many ex or current academy players will go back to their schools to coach for a year or two so from the age of 12 you are learning Leinster/Munsters style of play. It is a brilliant system and one that is only getting more advanced and more competitive with more and more schools becoming more serious about rugby.
I think most people look at the "irish rwc curse" the wrong way, they don't underperform in world cups, they overperform the rest of the time. Their system allows better player protection, thus less forced changes through injury and more cohesion than any other team, at least in the nothern hémisphere could dream off. A world cup prep tends to nullify those advantages
That's a pretty interesting take on it...🤔 I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, I just find it genuinely thought-provoking, and it's always good to try to look at things from a different perspective, so thanks for sharing yours 🙂
Such good analysis, and great research into the 2013 plan and Dublin schools etc, very impressive. If Ireland get lucky with injuries I can see them getting to the final (prob lose it to France), as I totally agree they're holding lots back for the WC and Leinster's loss means SA and NZ will now slightly underestimate them again
@ajjs8869. You're deluding yourself. Do you think the other nations are going to base their decisions on this match? You'd be misjudging the staffs of every country, they're not that stupid.For my part, I do not make predictions, everything depends on the form of teams, injuries, and referees, and success, and especially the chances
Only if the injury war of attrition doesn't claim too many casualties early on. But you can be sure that SA and Scotland will specifically target Sexton, and Beirne and Porter etc
I think I can speak for most Irish fans, there is certainly huge amount of nerves surrounding the Quarter Final but if there's a team that can push through it it's this squad. I have faith in the players and the coaching staff.
Need to get out of the pool first man stop expecting an easy trip to the quarters. The Scots won't roll over and we all know about SA. Worry about the knockouts once we get there ffs.
It's absolutely going to be a bloody tough pool but I reckon Ireland's got the depth to get through it, South Africa will of course be interesting, if the Springboks had Pollard when they were in Dublin they probably would have won that game.
We have done similar things before when talking about peaking early. I think there is definitely a case to be made for it. I do believe there is something different about this time, just from the depth the squad has alone. At the end of the day, we are number one and it is ours to lose (aside of course from the all-blacks). I am also glad the boys have felt and found a way of dealing with that pressure.
I was in school with Dorris and then moved school and was with Larmour, the comment made about all these posh schools guys looking like Gary is sooooo accurate
Won’t be easy, but regarding the so called World Cup curse, 1987-1999: Simply weren’t good enough. During this period, Ireland always finished in the bottom two of the 5 nations. 2003: Just turned professional and France caught us the week after a bruising encounter against Australia which emptied us. 2007: Got the preparation wrong and played badly 2011: Just were outplayed by Wales 2015: Same thing that happened in 2003, a fresh Argentina got us the week after a bruising match against France, and we were missing quite a lot of players, including O’Connell and Sexton. 2019: Peaked a year too early, Joe Schmidt’s game plan had been figured out, and we thought Japan would be easy. So that’s my tuppence worth as to why Ireland have had this so called curse.
2023: meeting NZL or FRA in the QF will prove too much, after having been battered without mercy by the sheer physicality required against the Bokke, SCO, TGA and ROU, just to survive the pool stage. Compared to IRL, AUS and ENG will be in wheelchair rides straight into the SF.
@@RazorMouth All four main contenders have depth in their squads. Especially now World Rugby allows 33 players per squad, up 2 from 31 in 2019. I agree that it is looking better for Ireland than ever before. But the same is true for France. NZL and RSA are notorious for sandbagging the oppositional coaches in the matches leading up to the RWC. If rugby can be compared with poker, it is a common mistake to base one's odds to take the pot on one's own hand only. Edit. Of course I have watched the video. At 0.75 speed, as usual. The wonderful thing with Squidge is that every time he highlights any team, it always makes me truly believe it is the best and most deserving team in the world ever. He made me love Uruguay, Georgia, women's rugby, referees and even Wales.
@@RazorMouth The World Cup is not normal international rugby, or have you not watched the World Cup? SA can maintain the highest levels of physicality for 7 games and love it. Can Ireland? We'll find out.
I don't know which I enjoyed more: your Harlequins comment (massive Quins fan here), or your replacement clown representing Wales - both tickled me pink! A really great video essay Squidge 😊
Fan from NZ here. While I don't believe rankings are necessarily always an accurate reflection, I do believe Ireland and France are the 2 best rugby teams on the planet right now. That said, there are 5 or 6 teams that could win it this year. The Rugby World Cup is partly about form, and partly about pressure. Ireland have the pressure of being number 1, and France have the pressure of playing at home. I think it will come down to whoever can clear their heads, and handle the pressure best on the day.
South Africa, France and New Zealand will have a lot to say about an Ireland world cup win. I daresay Australia may come good with the well known Eddie Jones short term results boost as well! Either way it will be as gpod a tournament as there has been.
The point at the end about holding back plays brings back maybe the toughest memories, despite the topic. I remember the recap 4 years ago saying the same about Schmidt being too clever a coach to have that lackluster a six nations before the world cup, and he must be holding things back. I remember after Keenan's try against France I was hoping it would be kept semi quiet so that it could be pulled out again when it matters most, and was definitely surprised it was used in the very next game. My hope for this is that maybe they wanted to show it not working so teams will regard it as less of a threat and will forget about it.
Oh definitely. The thing to remember is is that Andy Farrell was was Ireland's defence coach during the last half of Joe Schmidt's tenure, so he had a front-row seat to the implosion that marked Schmidt's final year here. And given what we know about the man, there's no way in hell that Farrell didn't take notes of exactly what not to do in the run-up to a world cup. Now, whether or not Farrell being forewarned makes him prepared for this year is another story entirely, but I do think he has the ability to at least give us one of our best shots at it ever.
As the great Kiwi coaches say, you play what's in front of you. In the ever shifting lines of defense, you have the ability to continually adapt throughout the game.
I would say YES but there is a big IF. Jonathan Sexton is really the maestro of the team. I cannot see Ireland winning without him. He must stay fit. The irish management made a big mistake the last two World Cup cycles not considering developping a good back-up. I have checked Ross Byrne record with Ireland, his probable back-up if JS unavailable, and it is abysmal. Few big games as a starter and when a starter, always a disaster in terms of results.
I would add that the play of Jack Crowley in the 2nd half of this URC season has been a huge bonus for Andy Farrell and this Ireland team. We now have real depth in the 10 jersey. Most of us are going to be dreading the injury potential in this group - as Squidge Rugby points out, South Africa, Tonga and, Romania all field big forward packs. Imo, I think Farrell picks Sexton to start the first 2 games and replaces him with Ross Byrne after 50 mins against Tonga, then in the game against Romania replaces him with Jack Crowley after 50 mins - that's IF Sexton recovers from his current injury and, avoids injury in the warm up tests.
I will certainly be rooting for Ireland this year. The World cup really needs a Northern Hemisphere champion again. Although I love our Springkokke, I hope to see more champions from Europe.
Ireland are deservably the number one team in the world as they have played a consistent and accurate brand of rugby that has proven incredibly hard to beat over the past WC cycle. Alot has been made of the NZ tour win, a massive milestone for irish rugby and the way they played over the series is something irish fans should be incredibly proud of. I would advise caution though, that NZ team was considered the worst ever and has undergone a massive rebuild since then and the team now are barely recognisable from that rudderless super touch team. There were also a couple of card calls in test 2 & 3 that had they been a diferent colour it could have been a very different series result(not that NZ would have deserved to win it). Irelands key players are Sexton and Furlong for me. Everyone knows how important Sexton is and if hes not fit and firing at the WC its likely ireland will struggle however the form of Furlong is also a concern-hes looking like hes running on fumes and at times has stuggled at scrum time. Ireland will need that set piece platform to go deep in the tournament. France or NZ in the QF will be very hard to navigate. On one hand you have the hosts who will be heavily motivated to put in a result for their fans and on the other hand you have a relatively new look NZ side that are partially coached by the most influential ireland rugby coach in history. This coach has spent the last 12months plotting the downfall of the very team he spent over a decade building.
You can be knocked out of the WC in one game, that's it, many times team's with outstanding seasons and players leading into this competition have gone home early...no guarantees in a world cup
I hope with every fibre that we get over the mental aspect and really take off. I’m sure that Faz will have a long chat with Rowntree about Munsters road to URC. It seemed to bond the group and really bring out the best in them when it mattered most. He has got to figure out the secret sauce that turned the adversity of the challenge into the thing the binds them
I think it’s different this time. 2015 they didn’t have the depth, 2019 you could see they were found out before the world cup, in the six nations. The fact that schmidt was on his way out probably didn’t help
Irelands biggest threat is themselves. There's a lot of history of things just not going their way, such as injuries, playing conditions and such, so much so that it'll be on the back of everyones minds coming into the tournament. They're obviously better now than they've ever been, and have a huge amount of belief in themselves. The question is whether that belief is enough to overcome the questions that will most surely be asked of them at some point
Ireland's biggest threats are... in order: 1) Losing to Boks and/or Scotland in close games BEFORE the QF stage 2) Facing either NZ (who've been preparing for revenge on Ire) or France at home 3) Accumulating numerous key injuries from having 4 big matches within the space of 2-3 weeks 4) Other nations having done months of dedicated research to counteract Irish tactics 5) Something else 6) Random chance 6-98) Numerous other things ... .... 99) Not believing in themselves.
The highlights for the umpteenth time the unfairness of the certainty by design of at least two of Ireland, France, South Africa and New Zealand guaranteed to fall out at the quarter final stage.
AB's have a tough game first up then should cruise through the pool. Ireland have a super tough pool and their hardest games last. The AB's played terrible when Ireland toured and now have a chip on their shoulder against them. Also, everyone has been trashing the AB's coach but the players love him and will want to send him off in the best way. 3 awesome assistants have been brought in recently and have made a difference too. I think the AB's will be hoping to play Ireland in the quarters and Ireland should hope to avoid it. It will be brutal either way. It's good to see the Irish doing so well and this world cup should be the most competitive ever. Can't wait!
Fozzie is the losingest ever coach, he's got a free shot at it as we are not expecting much, he deservedly lost his job, but obviously the side want to win, and I wish them all the best. The weight of expectation wasn't good to France at home last time, nor to Ireland in 2019.
One thing not covered in the video, which plays into the endless stream of Ringrose clones, is the player management system in place in the IRFU. IRFU contracts stipulate that no player will play 6 (or 7 - I can't remember exactly) weekends in a row. In reality, it's very rare to see a player, especially one of the internationals, play more than 4-5 weekends in a row. For example, since the end of the last World Cup, Sexton has never played more than 3 weekends in a row and he's done that just twice. The first time was in 2021 when he started and finished the last two games of the Six Nations before coming off the bench for the last 5 minutes of the URC Final the next weekend. The second time was last summer when he started all three tests on Ireland's tour of New Zealand. From a player management point of view, this is great. It minimises the number of collisions the players are in, gives them time to rest and recover, and overall just protects their long- and short-term health. From a World Cup point of view, it is not so great. Since 2003 (5 tournaments), when the current tournament format was adopted, Ireland have lost in a quarter finals 4 times (2007 - didn't make it out of the pool). In those tournaments, the quarter final was the 5th game in as many weeks. Squidge touches on the Irish players not being set up to peak for World Cups, but it goes further than that - the Irish players aren't used to playing as many games in a row as they're expected to do during a World Cup and so start running out of steam when they reach around 5 games. To put things into perspective, let's look at the teams who contested the 2019 final: South Africa used 33 players over the tournament - 18 of them played in 6 or 7 matches over the 6 weeks of the tournament, with 9 playing just once or twice. 7 players played in every match. England played a game less and used 32 players over the tournament - 21 of them played in 5 or 6 games, with 8 playing in just one or two. 13 players played in every match. The schedule is both a benefit and a weakness to Ireland. They play Romania and Tonga first, which gives them an opportunity to play their way into the tournament, but equally, they will be tough games, especially on the forwards. It also means to reach the final, Ireland will have a run of 5 matches against Tier 1 opposition over 6 weeks. That minimises the opportunities to rest the core players.
Ireland is in with a good chance but the World Cup is harder to win. You can't have a bad game and it takes one off day or some injuries to critical positions and your campaign is over. If they can consistently play well and avoid injuries, they're in with a good chance. However, France at home will be a tough call. Will be a good cup to watch!!
As a kiwi I hope the Irish finally break the curse and make at least the semi's or even go all the way stopping the usual four from winning if not them then Fiji.
@@roydonfrost5460 to be the best team in rugby history you have to dominate the sport for over 100 years and there is only one team who have done that.
@roydonfrost5460 we can give you our three RWC wins and still be known as the best sports team in human history no one compares that's right "Best Sports Team" in history
@@WARR10RZ_4L1F3 everyone compares that because world cups are where it matters its the pincacle of rugby if you dont dominate that you dominate nothing
As an Australian i didnt think Ireland could win it, but the closer it gets the more i say yes. I still think france are most likely, with ireland and the all blacks equal second. Being Australian i will be of course supporting my wallabies and if/when they get knocked out ill be supporting my anzac brothers. But all the best to ireland, they def deserve a successful world cup
I think the Wallabies will easily get to the finals with far less atriction than the other side of the draw. Especially with the bounce from Eddie, Wallabies for the win, my Irish opinion
Not really. La Rochelle put a master gameplan to beat Leinster and subsequently Ireland. The reason it’s not really an issue is because quite frankly no nation has the perfect blend of players to do so. ROG built and recruited a side perfect for beating them.
I highly doubt ROG built a team to defeat Leinster specifically. He just has found the proper way to grind them down. South Africa in particular looks like they have everything they need and more to do the same.
@@Skininefulerhaps not to beat Leinster specifically but if you want to beat Leinster there’s a good chance you’re going to face Leinster. French sides are unlikely to face their own teams. In which case which other team do you think you’ll likely have to beat, it’s Leinster. SA will be our biggest issue, that said they still don’t have all the unique athletes La Rochelle have, quite frankly no one does.
@@Skinineful Yeah, I think SA will beat them, but come up short against NZ/France. Infuriating that this could be another time we drop out at the quarters, but by the luck of the draw over quality. I think if we do make it past, our schedule makes it likely that by the semis we'll be spent. I'm just trying to pile on enough pessimism to somehow push the lads over the line 😅
![Seungmin "그렇게, 천천히, 우리(As we are)" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kAzmhLHePqU/mqdefault.jpg)
Yes we can definitely win the World Cup! (We’re getting knocked out in the QF)
Edit: I knew it
Ah come on a bit of trust in them they have done a lot of firsts I think we can win it.
Have some faith
It's been a curse on us for decades but I'm hoping this group can lift it once and for all
😂
whilst wales odd of getting knocked out in the quarters are better than you winning it, they arnt that different. best of luck. We dont havea chance this yr, so it has to be you guys
As a Scot in the same pool as Ireland and South Africa, I somewhat begrudge Ireland's recent dominance. That being said, if Scotland dont make it out the pool, I will support the bhoys in green
Not the boys in green and gold ? 😂🍻
@Kristian ye cuz there's so many northern Irish in the top 23 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
And vice versa
@Sum Boi we won't insult the Scottish team, it's like insulting our C team. Why would we do that.
@@jonathandavis8599 I wouldn’t be so overconfident about that first game
The two final games for us happen before the Quarters. If we get passed them we win it.
Honestly, thinking about it now, I think that's a good thing for us. Get the big games out of the way early gives us the best chance of having Sexton on the field when we need him most. The chances of Sexton getting injured before the final is incredibly high.
Theres no way you guys like Squidge Rugby! This would be a collab of dreams but I have no idea how it could happen hahaha
I'm lost, what two final games happen before the quarters?
@@nathan9783 I was just going to say the same thing
@@Karma-qt4ji South Africa and Scotland. South Africa is definitely a major game, and after this six nations scotland can’t be underestimated.
To think that the hardest games are at the beginning of the tournament is a terrible thought. Also, I'm not sure to understand why it would be easier after the quarters anyway
I’m English and want Ireland to win because of the way they’re playing and the spirit and love for the game they show. Go well lads 👍💪🍻
I dont
@@standelone1674 fair enough mate,
@@standelone1674who asked you jog on
I want Fiji if they can play their natural game, to win.
you melt@@standelone1674
Im English, but i really love this Irish team. Excellent players, experience and fantastic depth. They have completely bought into Farrell and his gameplan. They seem a tight team which will bear fruit as the tournament heats up
I wish them all the best
Can't live without us english in your midst though can ya.
I might just be young and naive, as I've only really experienced the 2015 and 2019 world cups, but this World Cup feels different. We weren't contenders coming into 2015, and im 2019, we had our faces kicked in by England and Wales in the preceding 6 Nations. Coming into 2019, we had beaten the All Blacks twice in our history. This world cup, we have beaten them 3 times this world cup cycle. We've also beaten every tier one side within the last 2 years. The belief that this will give us in a quarter against likely the ABs or France is not a small thing.
On a different note, this World Cup could be massive for Ireland off the field too. Everyone in Ireland, even if they were born two decades after the fact, has been told the heroics of the footballers at Italia 90. A quater final win might honestly be enough to gain that mythological status.
The rugby team is also one of the only teams that is cross-border. That means that it's possible for someone from the Shankill road in Belfast to line up alongside someone from the Gaeltacht of Connemara in green. Im not saying we'll go all Nelson Mandela 1995 Invictus on it, but it might go some way on both sides of the border in convincing people what the people of this island can do when we work together.
Has there ever been players from those regions
@M O C haven't a clue, but it's possible in theory
@@connornewcombe4319 Except all those on the Shankill play football instead partially so they never have to play under the Irish name
Lovely sentiment!
You're dead wrong about the 2015 World Cup. We had won the previous two Six Nations titles leading into that tournament. We were tipped by the Irish media to win the whole tournament. As usual, we lost at the quarter final stage.
History repeats itself. We don't have a chance of winning this World Cup, unfortunately.
Really happy to see some love for Conan, he’s been a consistently great player and even had great work rate during his period of ill health. Class player and great to see him get some recognition for his great effort.
Conan is back to his best and his best is World class.
I remember when everyone was saying that Gatland was crazy for picking him for the Lions Tour. His contribution in attack (specially on the wide channel) is priceless.
Yes
Ireland are definite strong contenders - only trouble is their pool and the side of the lop-sided draw they are on - they will need to play Sth Africa and Scotland to get to the quarters - then either France or NZ to get to semis - and then two more tough matches to win - that's a lot of high quality wins and a lot has to go their way. For the first time they have the depth and mental fortitude to do it, as well as the talent and coach but it is still a tough ask. If not Ireland then France is my call, which I say with admiration as a die hard AB fan.....
As an Irishman I think this is the first time in history that the ABs are not the favourite gir the WC but I think despite their turmoil over the last year or so they are still dark horses, never write off the ABs that's a lesson we Irish learnt the hard way in many occasions and they could surprise and win it....
If your not giving Australia a shout, you dont know rugby!
Well then that is what we will do.
Sometimes you want the tough games to keep you focused and motivated. Liverpool's best Champions League runs have generally been when they were stacked against excellent teams all the way through.
How did you make me unbelievably excited and simultaneously extremely terrified of this world cup? And why?
Very well put.
Same
If we get past the quarter finals I think momentum can take us certainly towards a final, if not necessarily winning it
I agree, in the 1/4s you will play one of the two teams closest to you, win that and you still have South Africa to worry about
I disagree, Ireland regularly emotionally exhaust themselves at the world cup, if they make the quarters, they will be bust
What a useless comment how have you got so man likes
If Ireland get past SA, Scotland, France/NZ then we can probably win the semi. What a prediction, how bold
@@seanosullivan2479 I actually think that's a wild prediction. If Ireland manage to win those 3 massive games, as well as a few others, I think Irelands squad will be on its last legs.
Usually teams dont win tournaments before they have ventured deep a couple times, and learned what semis and finals are like
I have been watching your videos for years but I honestly think this might be your best. Love the content!
Irish passion and guile with an English coach to give them that long-needed grit and gumption = SORTED!
Thanks for this, looking forward to the "smaller" teams profiles as well. Getting excited for the RWC, thanks for adding to all of that.
"The task ahead that seems simple in a 10 year plan, but very very different once you're stood on French soil, waiting for kickoff."
Litteral chills, made me realise how close we finally are to the first kickoff
relatable
I’m glad you helped explain the school system as being critical to ireland and Leinsters success as I think too many people think they can just follow the Dublin school system and success will follow. On your list probably two other rugby “cities” are Edinburgh and Sydney. Former has 4 decent rugby schools (so too small compared to Dublins) and Sydney is competing with rugby league and Aussie rules
I feel a lucky draw is very important and hands the advantage to countries with huge talent pools like New Zealand. Ireland still only need a few key players injured to go from excellent to good/average.
Whatever about Ireland's chances of a World Cup, this video is a masterpiece.
Well said. ✅ Brilliantly researched and delivered... ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Keep it up Squidgeton... 😂
Agreed. Consummate genius. Hats off to you mr anti Irish 😅
It's a good video, far from a masterpiece. Calling Folau a bell-end is pathetic
@@michaeljsullivan524 Folau is a courageous brave man. This mans videos are entertaining but he is still a limp liberal
This man is far and away the best analyst of this wonderful game, puts every single English pundit to shame (maybe it's cuz he's Welsh lol). I remember a very famous podcast with prominent rugby players, and his name was mentioned because he did something for BBC. It was pretty disrespectful imo, because 1, they did not even take the time to even pronounce his name correctly and 2, you could tell they never even watched a single video. They should have, they would have learned more about rugby instead of their own biased (and incorrect) opinions
Hey Squidge - sweet analysis and gotta say thaaaaaanks - for slowing down your commentary speed. Makes it way more enjoyable man. Cheers!
As a Bok supporter, pool placing does not matter as long as we make it through there is no easy game ( Fr/NZ) If not Boks I do hope a team from our side of the draw makes it through it would possibly be one of the most deserved WC trophies. It is possible that SA / IRE could need to beat the top 6 ranked teams in the world in a row.
As an Irish supporter, I agree completely. I'd far sooner lose a game at the start than at the end 😅
Those pool games will be challenging, with more of the same to follow after, and I'd love to see whoever comes out of it go all the way - it'd be hard-earned and well-deserved!
And that's an excellent point re the top 6, well spotted. That'd be an incredible way to win it! 😃
I've never looked forward to a WC this much! Fingers crossed we'll get loads of fast, fair, skillful rugby, with as few injuries as possible. No matter who takes the trophy home, it's looking like we're in for one hell of a tournament! 🏉🏆🥳
Makes a change from your cake walk in 2019. One hard game won.
Is it not 5? Two tough games in your pool, then QF, SF and final? Huge ask, but how do you get 6?
@@michaeleager4635 they (and Scotland too) are in the top six. So they may have to beat the other five of the top six.
We'll give them a pass on having to beat themselves 😅
Namibia Uruguay quarter finals😂
Thanks for that, now I have a much better understanding why we are so good at the moment.
I think Andy gets what the world cup requires better than most coaches, so I think emphasis and further development won't be an issue. In terms of blueprint on beating Ireland I'd be much more concerned by Englands performance than La Rochelles despite the player overlap leinster play very differently to Ireland. Hopefully the coaches will have enough time to work through the exploited weaknesses in the England game (and boks ANS game). Definetly going to be a nervy tournament
Watching this after yesterday's home game againt England is quite fascinating...i guess thet just might! Well look at you Ireland
It's a cruel pool draw. We might actually play to our potential at a world cup for once, and it might not matter. We've had a great run, but the reality is it's a coin toss between the top four sides.
But teams like NZ, France, Scotland and South Africa also have the same problem. It will take a lot out of their players and if their depth isn't as well thought out - they will start to struggle earlier. South Africa are the only team that can withstand that level of attrition but I also feel like Ireland have invested very heavily in depth and will sustain it too. Once they get out of the group and into the knock out stage it will be anyones game. Ireland have the balls, the men and the stamina to back themselves this time so it will come down to who wants it more not who has more. A place Ireland haven't been at before, so this time we can't just expect any team to win but we can say Ireland has as much chance as any other potential for the world cup.
South Africa were no where near full strength though when they played Ireland and France but let's see
@@LeMerchwhat are you talking about, Ireland both times were big favourites Vs Argentina in quarters, and the difference was Argentina wanted it more.
Ireland have had 3 great chances to make RWC semi finals, and failed 3 times, it will take a monster effort to overcome that, and if they manage it, they will be exhausted for the semi!
Ireland at worst will not get out of the group, ala England 2015, and at best will fall apart in the semi final.
@@roydonfrost5460many irish players were missing for that match too
@@WB-kx7jw like who? Lol
"... the designer of the Quins away kit". Well written, well done! Great video once again.
Unbelievably excited for this WC. I have tickets to the Boks vs Ireland pool game. I think it's going to be massive.
You lucky basket
It’s actually irrelevant. Topping the group is meaningless. There’s no “high road”. First or second place and you meet either France or NZ. And have no control over which one. And they’re both equally tough. Boks are rightly focusing on the Scotland game. I reckon they should play their b team against Ireland. Rest up for the quarters
That analysis was mind-blowing ! We have the squad, hopefully we have the game plan. Just get past the quarters....
As an Ireland fan, I think it's very possible that they can win RWC based on current form, hunger and coaching nous. It will require some serious luck though. Here is my prediction -- if they can finally shake off the QF hex (by beating either NZ or France in QF), they will go on to win it. This team is special!
I have news my good man...
And so it begins. These videos are another reason to love world cup year.
The quarter finals will be our biggest game as it will be either New Zealand or France. If we get past that we’ll have the best chance
Ireland have never had the depth of quality for a world cup, they do now. Its why the relentless pressure startegy works so well during the 6 nations, the back-up reserve player is still a class test player. Whereas before it'd be some half-decent player from a province.
Ireland said the same in 2019....and wrote off the sboks also,ranked 5th or 8th.
@@georgefrederikoosthuizen891 Ireland thought they had depth but they didn’t. Ireland have never written off the Boks.
@@johnmc3862 well u the 1st who said this the rest off the world already celebrates irelands victory,some off them who didnt know still celebrates ireland win 2019 wc...
@@georgefrederikoosthuizen891 stormers are shite, Munster owns them
Sexton then .... Ross Byrne. That's about as deep as a toddler's paddling pool. Byrne showed in the ERC final that he couldn't take control of a game when the pressure was on. He would face that intensity or more in crunch pool game or a 1/4. He doesn't have it. If age or injury gets Sexton then it could be 10 in a row for Ireland. And Sexton has to do a full WC campaign (the key games) for the very first time at 38 - it's a tall order.
I’ll be optimistic. We might not get knocked out in the quarter finals. We’ll get knocked out in the semis 💪
Progress 🤣
To who though? Unless Eddie makes Australia a force again, big if but very possible, Ireland would be favourites against everyone else on that side of the draw.
Na. It’s QF, Final or Champions. Not losing a semi
@@cathalsheehan9596 You hardly beat Australia at home what are you talking about and Australia were missing so many players to injury lol
@@EatDeze It was probably the worst Irish performance in the last 2 years where we did everything in our power to lose and Australia still couldn't win, that if anything would make me concerned if I was Aussie as Ireland wont ever be that bad again.
I am a South African my money is on the Irish taking it. Previously they peaked to early. 2007 World cup & 2019 as well. This time tough the URC has shown the 2 top Irish teams are world class players with big match temprament. So out of that the national sqaud same mentality & here you go they winning the world cup.
As an Irishman, I don't see Ireland beating France to win the World Cup, but I appreciate you showing some respect to the Irish team. There is certainly something different about them this time.
Some the comments regarding Ireland on here you could find on the walls of a public toilet.
So who is your fav for the cup then? It's so exciting that we could have anyone from SA to France instead of the common 3 teams for favourites.
It will be a hot autumn! I'm already planning using some 1/2 days off so I can watch rubgy instead of doing meetings!
Usually its the noise around an Ireland team that build expectation for the World Cup, the impression I've gotten this time around is that the squad and coaching staff are building the expectation and inviting the pressure while the rest of us are quite skeptical. Its hard to be optimistic because we've been in this position before heading to a World Cup, not to mention the draw, but I like the all or nothing attitude in the Ireland camp atm.
Out at the quarters.
@@kenrehill8775 Are you a prophet?
Can’t beat the crushing experience of 91
My Dad (who’s Irish) was up dancing a jig and then ITV cut to an ad break and get back just in time to see Lynagh Hoover in the corner
Last world cup I thought Ireland were just holding back some plays and that Schmidt had some tricks up his sleeve, I was wrong.
Can only hope Andy Farrell took note of this and has dozens of plays and attacks ready to use in September
Great analysis and many thx for the detail.
Really appreciated.
POM, Beirne, Hansen, Aki and Henderson add so much to the Irish 23. As a Leinster fan, if they can stay fit, we have a chance. Especially Beirne, Hansen and POM
It's a 23 man game now. Some of the finishers are better with Ireland too e.g. Murray, Bealham.
Also, I hate overhyping young players... but Jack Crowley's performances in the semi final and final of the URC suggest he could be very very good.
Bierne is ridiculous, he’s like playing with cheat codes. Absolutely slaughtered my nz boys in the last test of the series. I’ve got nothing but admiration for the guy.
"They're reheating last nights dinner for their 10th wedding anniversary" 👏👏👏
I would say that ireland could have lost the English game. However that was due to putting in a very nervy performance coupled with England showing some real pride. I think ireland have the skills to do very well provided they don't go into their shell.
Really accurate analysis of the Irish team and their chances - wrapped up in a really funny video - loved it. If not Ireland then Uruguay for sure ..
mate I love how you break down this game. I just want Ireland to make it past the quarters. They need to prove that and clear out a long term ghost. It all comes down to whether you believe that Ireland were peaking over the last year, or simply getting stronger. I've got to believe that they have been targeting the WC all along, but my gut says that an insane draw that in no way represents the current landscape is going to be too hard.
I’m an All Blacks supporter however the way the Irish team are playing and the French I can see the cup heading north this year.
Anything better than QF is a win for me.
Need to have a bit more faith in your boys.
@@everythingentertainment2518 I've been disappointed too many times. My biggest concern is injuries because we're going to have to play two of the top 5 ranked nations in the world, including the notoriously physical Boks, and two of the most physical tier 2 nations. We lost in 2015 because we lost players like O'Connell, POM and Sexton to injury. I think there are going to be injuries again, especially given how old Sexton is now. Thankfully we have more depth than in 2015. I think if we get past NZ or France we've got a great chance, but I'm a bit concerned if we can get past either with the injuries we're inevitably going to have.
nah bullshit it's Webb Ellis Cup or bust this is finally the year
@@EoinJoyceMapping Another comment on here mentioned that there's a real possibility (dependant on results of course) that Ireland or SA could end up having to beat ALL of the other top 6 ranked teams to win.
Which is both terrifying and exhilarating 😂
@@elainec6687 Ireland play SA and Scotland in the pool (4th and 5th respectively) then they'll end up playing France or NZ (2nd or 3rd) then possibly England in SF (6th) and whichever of France or NZ they haven't played so that's correct Ireland could play all of the other top 6 teams.
Injuries plays a big role in a tournament like a World Cup. I hope all teams can play their best players and give us a world cup to remember
The single most important reference not adequately covered here is that Ireland went to New Zealand and won in a 5 game series which replicate RWC conditions. This winning mindset set them up for the Six Nations. The URC win in South Africa against a big physical team has given the likes of Crowley, Nash and Coombes preparation in the white heat of finals. The loss to Rochelle was an important tactical lesson in not repeating the same attacking plays that are easily worked out. Andy Farrell has coached his squad to problem solve on the hoof and to be a team which finds a a way to win. Ireland will go further in this RWC than they have ever been before. Just how far is massively exciting.
You don't appear to be Irish. Your analysis is grown up. Well done.
@@thehangingtorchofdarkness4769 Says the anonymous poster😭
@@thehangingtorchofdarkness4769 And 2 against the NZ Maori.
@@thehangingtorchofdarkness4769 You are hiding behind the anonymity.
Ireland are a shoo in, Nothing compares to them, they are the best around, GO Ireland!
Irelands biggest hurdle will be the massive target on their back. It took the ABs many world cups to figure out how to turn that into a strength. Being the best in the world leading up to the cup doesn’t really mean much anymore.
Of course it means a lot!! Ireland had to beat all the best!! teams to get to number one!! What do you think there number one for?
@johnDoe-pb2ft it means nothing when they game begins. The opposition don't care what their opponents ranking are. You can be sure SA won't give a dam about rankings when they play Ireland.
It so true Ireland are new to having a target on their back. However, Sexton has played 100 years of rugby and has experience in world cups. We never lived up to our potential in world cups because we only focused on beating the hard teams and somehow dismissed weaker teams. This means we have built up enough experience to know that we should not underestimate the weaker teams. That's why we are playing our strongest team against teams we should be able to beat easily. In the post interview talks, we're always talking about the next game.
@@NegativeAccelerate I have no doubt Ireland have every chance of winning the cup, they have certainly shown they can. Whatever has happened on the lead up to the RWC is irrelevant at this point, they have the skill, game plan and every other attribute - they just need to be able to handle the pressure of being the best.
Brilliant work mate, fingers crossed there are some tricks up the sleave
Amazing stuff once again Squidge! Somehow you seem to still be getting better and better at this.
"So much depth that they could find the titanic", accurately predicting another Irish implosion?
I fancy France.
They’re playing every game at home for a start!
But they always have one bad game and some stupid discipline action.
@@rieske2000 Regardless of the sport, you always need some luck when it comes to winning World Cups.
Especially as nine teams have a realistic shot at winning this tournament if things go their way.
France’s lucky break might be that for once, they avoid that meltdown.
The move at 7:28 is a common move seen in the NRL. teams like south sydney and Melbourne storm are experts at it.
In the end Ireland could not win a world cup. Another 4 year wait to try again. Keep your heads up boys
It's Saturday afternoon (16th September) before the Ireland v Tonga game. Romania (82-8) already under the belt. Predicting an attritional (20+ point) win against Tonga for the Irish and then the thermostat gets turned up to the max for the Saffas and Scotland. I suspect 'Papa Farrell' and Co. have a few new moves up their sleeves which will likely be debuted against SA next week. Having seen the French and ABs both play two games already, I think Ireland would prefer to meet the ABs in the QFs - which means they need to beat both SA and Scotland to top Group B. Whether a winning squad in green survives all that attrition remains to be seen but should they (God forbid) reach the SFs (and or Final) they will have beaten all the best teams in the competition to get there! Best World Cup Irish team ever facing the worst World Cup draw since JohnBoySexBottle was a lad - and that's a long time ago!
Come on you boys in green☘️☘️☘️
You couldn't be more on the button with Irelands youth system. From the age of 12 you're basically playing professional rugby, you train 4 times a week and play once and you are coached by quality coaches. In the big schools in Leinster and Munster many ex or current academy players will go back to their schools to coach for a year or two so from the age of 12 you are learning Leinster/Munsters style of play. It is a brilliant system and one that is only getting more advanced and more competitive with more and more schools becoming more serious about rugby.
I think most people look at the "irish rwc curse" the wrong way, they don't underperform in world cups, they overperform the rest of the time. Their system allows better player protection, thus less forced changes through injury and more cohesion than any other team, at least in the nothern hémisphere could dream off. A world cup prep tends to nullify those advantages
That's a pretty interesting take on it...🤔
I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, I just find it genuinely thought-provoking, and it's always good to try to look at things from a different perspective, so thanks for sharing yours 🙂
Maan that was an impressive breakdown
Such good analysis, and great research into the 2013 plan and Dublin schools etc, very impressive. If Ireland get lucky with injuries I can see them getting to the final (prob lose it to France), as I totally agree they're holding lots back for the WC and Leinster's loss means SA and NZ will now slightly underestimate them again
@ajjs8869. You're deluding yourself. Do you think the other nations are going to base their decisions on this match? You'd be misjudging the staffs of every country, they're not that stupid.For my part, I do not make predictions, everything depends on the form of teams, injuries, and referees, and success, and especially the chances
@@gustannor6611 Leinster's loss (most of the Irish team) means there's a perception change, even if that's just a few % it makes a difference
Only if the injury war of attrition doesn't claim too many casualties early on.
But you can be sure that SA and Scotland will specifically target Sexton, and Beirne and Porter etc
They are targeted in every game....
I think I can speak for most Irish fans, there is certainly huge amount of nerves surrounding the Quarter Final but if there's a team that can push through it it's this squad. I have faith in the players and the coaching staff.
No nerves for the Sa game in pool stages?
Need to get out of the pool first man stop expecting an easy trip to the quarters. The Scots won't roll over and we all know about SA. Worry about the knockouts once we get there ffs.
It's absolutely going to be a bloody tough pool but I reckon Ireland's got the depth to get through it, South Africa will of course be interesting, if the Springboks had Pollard when they were in Dublin they probably would have won that game.
@@alexmcclure3512not just Pollard they had a number of other players out as well
True indeed, we'll see how they all perform with the Rugby Championship around the corner :)
We have done similar things before when talking about peaking early. I think there is definitely a case to be made for it. I do believe there is something different about this time, just from the depth the squad has alone.
At the end of the day, we are number one and it is ours to lose (aside of course from the all-blacks). I am also glad the boys have felt and found a way of dealing with that pressure.
Rankings don't mean squat when it comes to knock out Tournaments, A.B'z been No 1 and favorites in most W.C's but didn't win them all.
I think it depends on what injuries are picked up against South Africa & France/NZ.
Scotland might have a word regarding injuries. If I remember right, this year's 6N SCO/IRL was pretty brutal despite de the win.
My god every night I pray sexton does not get hurt before the nz or France games
I was in school with Dorris and then moved school and was with Larmour, the comment made about all these posh schools guys looking like Gary is sooooo accurate
Won’t be easy, but regarding the so called World Cup curse, 1987-1999: Simply weren’t good enough. During this period, Ireland always finished in the bottom two of the 5 nations.
2003: Just turned professional and France caught us the week after a bruising encounter against Australia which emptied us.
2007: Got the preparation wrong and played badly
2011: Just were outplayed by Wales
2015: Same thing that happened in 2003, a fresh Argentina got us the week after a bruising match against France, and we were missing quite a lot of players, including O’Connell and Sexton.
2019: Peaked a year too early, Joe Schmidt’s game plan had been figured out, and we thought Japan would be easy.
So that’s my tuppence worth as to why Ireland have had this so called curse.
2023: meeting NZL or FRA in the QF will prove too much, after having been battered without mercy by the sheer physicality required against the Bokke, SCO, TGA and ROU, just to survive the pool stage.
Compared to IRL, AUS and ENG will be in wheelchair rides straight into the SF.
@@bosoerjadi2838 except we have depth now or have you even watched the video?
SA tried to muscle us last year and we still scrapped a win.
@@RazorMouth All four main contenders have depth in their squads. Especially now World Rugby allows 33 players per squad, up 2 from 31 in 2019.
I agree that it is looking better for Ireland than ever before. But the same is true for France. NZL and RSA are notorious for sandbagging the oppositional coaches in the matches leading up to the RWC.
If rugby can be compared with poker, it is a common mistake to base one's odds to take the pot on one's own hand only.
Edit. Of course I have watched the video. At 0.75 speed, as usual. The wonderful thing with Squidge is that every time he highlights any team, it always makes me truly believe it is the best and most deserving team in the world ever. He made me love Uruguay, Georgia, women's rugby, referees and even Wales.
@@RazorMouth The World Cup is not normal international rugby, or have you not watched the World Cup? SA can maintain the highest levels of physicality for 7 games and love it. Can Ireland? We'll find out.
I don't know which I enjoyed more: your Harlequins comment (massive Quins fan here), or your replacement clown representing Wales - both tickled me pink!
A really great video essay Squidge 😊
Fan from NZ here. While I don't believe rankings are necessarily always an accurate reflection, I do believe Ireland and France are the 2 best rugby teams on the planet right now. That said, there are 5 or 6 teams that could win it this year. The Rugby World Cup is partly about form, and partly about pressure. Ireland have the pressure of being number 1, and France have the pressure of playing at home. I think it will come down to whoever can clear their heads, and handle the pressure best on the day.
As a kiwi I agree
Yes that's a fair statement. The mental strength of a team is at least as important as any physical aspect.
South Africa, France and New Zealand will have a lot to say about an Ireland world cup win. I daresay Australia may come good with the well known Eddie Jones short term results boost as well!
Either way it will be as gpod a tournament as there has been.
eddie jones, he's useless!
The point at the end about holding back plays brings back maybe the toughest memories, despite the topic. I remember the recap 4 years ago saying the same about Schmidt being too clever a coach to have that lackluster a six nations before the world cup, and he must be holding things back. I remember after Keenan's try against France I was hoping it would be kept semi quiet so that it could be pulled out again when it matters most, and was definitely surprised it was used in the very next game. My hope for this is that maybe they wanted to show it not working so teams will regard it as less of a threat and will forget about it.
Oh definitely. The thing to remember is is that Andy Farrell was was Ireland's defence coach during the last half of Joe Schmidt's tenure, so he had a front-row seat to the implosion that marked Schmidt's final year here. And given what we know about the man, there's no way in hell that Farrell didn't take notes of exactly what not to do in the run-up to a world cup.
Now, whether or not Farrell being forewarned makes him prepared for this year is another story entirely, but I do think he has the ability to at least give us one of our best shots at it ever.
@@jamesredmond7001 I agree.
If there was ever Chance for Ireland to make it past the QF this will be it.
past the quarter finals?? Ireland are going to win the RWC, mark my words
@@ceolnaghra Four more years.
@@sibusisonogabe2220 yep and I am Backing the abs to take home the cup!
SA v Ire tonight! Gonna be huge, but I'm now very nervous after watching this vid!🙃
May the best team win!
Go, Boks!
As the great Kiwi coaches say, you play what's in front of you. In the ever shifting lines of defense, you have the ability to continually adapt throughout the game.
Great video, please do a Munster/URC Final video if you get the chance at all!
I would say YES but there is a big IF.
Jonathan Sexton is really the maestro of the team. I cannot see Ireland winning without him. He must stay fit.
The irish management made a big mistake the last two World Cup cycles not considering developping a good back-up.
I have checked Ross Byrne record with Ireland, his probable back-up if JS unavailable, and it is abysmal.
Few big games as a starter and when a starter, always a disaster in terms of results.
They've been without him and beat France & NZ tho?
I would add that the play of Jack Crowley in the 2nd half of this URC season has been a huge bonus for Andy Farrell and this Ireland team. We now have real depth in the 10 jersey. Most of us are going to be dreading the injury potential in this group - as Squidge Rugby points out, South Africa, Tonga and, Romania all field big forward packs. Imo, I think Farrell picks Sexton to start the first 2 games and replaces him with Ross Byrne after 50 mins against Tonga, then in the game against Romania replaces him with Jack Crowley after 50 mins - that's IF Sexton recovers from his current injury and, avoids injury in the warm up tests.
Cant wait for your Springbok breakdown since the team has been announced.
I will certainly be rooting for Ireland this year. The World cup really needs a Northern Hemisphere champion again. Although I love our Springkokke, I hope to see more champions from Europe.
Let the ball do the work. Oldest advice in the book. I love how no matter how things change they always stay the same.
Love the Irish confidence!
"Reheating last night's dinner for your 10th wedding anniversary", great line. 😂
Ireland are deservably the number one team in the world as they have played a consistent and accurate brand of rugby that has proven incredibly hard to beat over the past WC cycle.
Alot has been made of the NZ tour win, a massive milestone for irish rugby and the way they played over the series is something irish fans should be incredibly proud of.
I would advise caution though, that NZ team was considered the worst ever and has undergone a massive rebuild since then and the team now are barely recognisable from that rudderless super touch team.
There were also a couple of card calls in test 2 & 3 that had they been a diferent colour it could have been a very different series result(not that NZ would have deserved to win it).
Irelands key players are Sexton and Furlong for me. Everyone knows how important Sexton is and if hes not fit and firing at the WC its likely ireland will struggle however the form of Furlong is also a concern-hes looking like hes running on fumes and at times has stuggled at scrum time. Ireland will need that set piece platform to go deep in the tournament.
France or NZ in the QF will be very hard to navigate. On one hand you have the hosts who will be heavily motivated to put in a result for their fans and on the other hand you have a relatively new look NZ side that are partially coached by the most influential ireland rugby coach in history. This coach has spent the last 12months plotting the downfall of the very team he spent over a decade building.
"The weird Australian hippy" gold 😂
As an Irish supporter, I feel this could be our time but we will have to play extremely well and have that bit of luck that all teams need.
Yes we can but everything has to fall into place for us . Luck , tree leaf clover & rabbits foot .
@@patrickyoung3503DuPont getting injured…
@@patrickyoung3503 I dont think we need to rely on luck that much. Its not luck we're no 1 in the world rankings
@@oisinfitzgerald5401 When everything goes through him, it could be a good thing
You would be none to pleased if that comment was about Sexton.
Brilliant stuff as always sir thanks so much!
You can be knocked out of the WC in one game, that's it, many times team's with outstanding seasons and players leading into this competition have gone home early...no guarantees in a world cup
I hope with every fibre that we get over the mental aspect and really take off. I’m sure that Faz will have a long chat with Rowntree about Munsters road to URC. It seemed to bond the group and really bring out the best in them when it mattered most. He has got to figure out the secret sauce that turned the adversity of the challenge into the thing the binds them
I think it’s different this time. 2015 they didn’t have the depth, 2019 you could see they were found out before the world cup, in the six nations. The fact that schmidt was on his way out probably didn’t help
Now in the WC, just found this, and that was excellent. I think we have some new plays!
Irelands biggest threat is themselves. There's a lot of history of things just not going their way, such as injuries, playing conditions and such, so much so that it'll be on the back of everyones minds coming into the tournament. They're obviously better now than they've ever been, and have a huge amount of belief in themselves. The question is whether that belief is enough to overcome the questions that will most surely be asked of them at some point
Ireland's biggest threats are... in order:
1) Losing to Boks and/or Scotland in close games BEFORE the QF stage
2) Facing either NZ (who've been preparing for revenge on Ire) or France at home
3) Accumulating numerous key injuries from having 4 big matches within the space of 2-3 weeks
4) Other nations having done months of dedicated research to counteract Irish tactics
5) Something else
6) Random chance
6-98) Numerous other things
...
....
99) Not believing in themselves.
The highlights for the umpteenth time the unfairness of the certainty by design of at least two of Ireland, France, South Africa and New Zealand guaranteed to fall out at the quarter final stage.
AB's have a tough game first up then should cruise through the pool. Ireland have a super tough pool and their hardest games last. The AB's played terrible when Ireland toured and now have a chip on their shoulder against them.
Also, everyone has been trashing the AB's coach but the players love him and will want to send him off in the best way. 3 awesome assistants have been brought in recently and have made a difference too.
I think the AB's will be hoping to play Ireland in the quarters and Ireland should hope to avoid it. It will be brutal either way. It's good to see the Irish doing so well and this world cup should be the most competitive ever. Can't wait!
Fozzie is the losingest ever coach, he's got a free shot at it as we are not expecting much, he deservedly lost his job, but obviously the side want to win, and I wish them all the best. The weight of expectation wasn't good to France at home last time, nor to Ireland in 2019.
One thing not covered in the video, which plays into the endless stream of Ringrose clones, is the player management system in place in the IRFU.
IRFU contracts stipulate that no player will play 6 (or 7 - I can't remember exactly) weekends in a row. In reality, it's very rare to see a player, especially one of the internationals, play more than 4-5 weekends in a row. For example, since the end of the last World Cup, Sexton has never played more than 3 weekends in a row and he's done that just twice. The first time was in 2021 when he started and finished the last two games of the Six Nations before coming off the bench for the last 5 minutes of the URC Final the next weekend. The second time was last summer when he started all three tests on Ireland's tour of New Zealand.
From a player management point of view, this is great. It minimises the number of collisions the players are in, gives them time to rest and recover, and overall just protects their long- and short-term health. From a World Cup point of view, it is not so great. Since 2003 (5 tournaments), when the current tournament format was adopted, Ireland have lost in a quarter finals 4 times (2007 - didn't make it out of the pool). In those tournaments, the quarter final was the 5th game in as many weeks. Squidge touches on the Irish players not being set up to peak for World Cups, but it goes further than that - the Irish players aren't used to playing as many games in a row as they're expected to do during a World Cup and so start running out of steam when they reach around 5 games.
To put things into perspective, let's look at the teams who contested the 2019 final:
South Africa used 33 players over the tournament - 18 of them played in 6 or 7 matches over the 6 weeks of the tournament, with 9 playing just once or twice. 7 players played in every match.
England played a game less and used 32 players over the tournament - 21 of them played in 5 or 6 games, with 8 playing in just one or two. 13 players played in every match.
The schedule is both a benefit and a weakness to Ireland. They play Romania and Tonga first, which gives them an opportunity to play their way into the tournament, but equally, they will be tough games, especially on the forwards. It also means to reach the final, Ireland will have a run of 5 matches against Tier 1 opposition over 6 weeks. That minimises the opportunities to rest the core players.
Ireland is in with a good chance but the World Cup is harder to win. You can't have a bad game and it takes one off day or some injuries to critical positions and your campaign is over. If they can consistently play well and avoid injuries, they're in with a good chance. However, France at home will be a tough call. Will be a good cup to watch!!
Can they? Yes.
Will they? We will have to watch the tournament designed to find this out, wont we?
As a kiwi I hope the Irish finally break the curse and make at least the semi's or even go all the way stopping the usual four from winning if not them then Fiji.
Yeah you just don't want Sa becoming the best team in rugby history
@@roydonfrost5460 to be the best team in rugby history you have to dominate the sport for over 100 years and there is only one team who have done that.
@@WARR10RZ_4L1F3 dominate means winning more world cups than anyone as well which nz hasn't done.
@roydonfrost5460 we can give you our three RWC wins and still be known as the best sports team in human history no one compares that's right "Best Sports Team" in history
@@WARR10RZ_4L1F3 everyone compares that because world cups are where it matters its the pincacle of rugby if you dont dominate that you dominate nothing
As an Australian i didnt think Ireland could win it, but the closer it gets the more i say yes. I still think france are most likely, with ireland and the all blacks equal second.
Being Australian i will be of course supporting my wallabies and if/when they get knocked out ill be supporting my anzac brothers. But all the best to ireland, they def deserve a successful world cup
I think the Wallabies will easily get to the finals with far less atriction than the other side of the draw. Especially with the bounce from Eddie, Wallabies for the win, my Irish opinion
Who is watching this after they smashed Romunia 82-8?
How is beating the blind an indicator of your cup chances?
Squidge! How dare you give us hope!!!!??
La Rochelle is single-handedly responsible for the 10-year plan's objectives not being fulfilled 😂
On the other hand, munster beat the Stormers so we do have something...
Not really. La Rochelle put a master gameplan to beat Leinster and subsequently Ireland. The reason it’s not really an issue is because quite frankly no nation has the perfect blend of players to do so. ROG built and recruited a side perfect for beating them.
I highly doubt ROG built a team to defeat Leinster specifically. He just has found the proper way to grind them down.
South Africa in particular looks like they have everything they need and more to do the same.
@@Skininefulerhaps not to beat Leinster specifically but if you want to beat Leinster there’s a good chance you’re going to face Leinster. French sides are unlikely to face their own teams. In which case which other team do you think you’ll likely have to beat, it’s Leinster. SA will be our biggest issue, that said they still don’t have all the unique athletes La Rochelle have, quite frankly no one does.
@@Skinineful Yeah, I think SA will beat them, but come up short against NZ/France. Infuriating that this could be another time we drop out at the quarters, but by the luck of the draw over quality. I think if we do make it past, our schedule makes it likely that by the semis we'll be spent. I'm just trying to pile on enough pessimism to somehow push the lads over the line 😅