It's actually quite emotional to hear a western medium covering the actual details about the conscription here, including the 4 months term and the actual lack of training plus how the military is planning to tackle it. As someone who's just finished his service on the offshore island of Kinmen, I resonate and echo these statements very much.
@@Kaxcer I volunteered for it actually. Both my dad and grandad served there, so I thought I should be a part of the heritage. Plus, I also went to my Dad's old barracks; turned out it's being used by cost guard now. It's a shame but the thought itself is worth-cherishing already :>
Better to work on your career in other field. If war breaks out the PRC will conquer Taiwan within weeks and your death would be in vain, leaving many people hurt.
Once served in Taiwan army years ago, I have some mixed feeling seeing a well-introductory video like this describing the issue Taiwanese army is facing. I sincerely hope that the authority can recognize and improve the situation more proactively...
The issue is the Taiwanese people themselves. A well trained 2 million man reserve forces can easily repel any PLA landing force. The key is a well trained reserve force with plenty of man portable guided missiles and access to drones. The ultimate key is for the Taiwanese people to believe in themselves and to be active in their defense. They need to make gun clubs and gun ownership a priority like the Swiss. They need to take active part in the defense of their own country. It's easy to do if they only believe in themselves.
If anything, its Taiwan's own fault for not keeping up their trainning and equipment. Yes, conscription is so called "slave labour". I've also been a concription, Singapore. The thing is, it's like Israel and Palestine situation. Yes, Palestine is morally right but they are wrong in a sense their own failure to defend themselves in times of crisis. The world is grey.
You just have to love how half of the comment section have zero idea of what they are talking about. Overall a really realistic overview of the Taiwanese military. Thank you for covering this.
Leaks from you side were saying they won't take arms against the PLA, and would surrender as soon as the PLA show up. Or are you guys ready for a Stalingrad / Grozny style street fight?
I think that is always the wrong question. The question is: Can Taiwan make the cost of invasion so high that it prevents China from doing it? Because if it was for pure muzzle, Taiwan can’t stand a chance .
If an invasion is attempted, there is no turning back for the CCP. It’s a matter of political legitimacy and show of strength, to such a high degree that abandoning the operation would mean political suicide. If you’re going to reply to this, please keep the discussion at a respectful and conducted level. I’m pretty sure neither of us wants this comment section to be a shitshow.
Most people commenting do not understand how much transport and supplies you would need for an amphibious assault. Most rational Chinese sources suggest to force Taiwan into surrender through missile bombardment and possibly a special operation to capture/assassinate its leaders. You could only send in a few divisions with all ships and planes combined. There are 200,000 ROC soldiers. A landing would be extremely costly even if it is successful. Taiwan has hundreds of modern mobile ASM capable of wiping out over half of the invasion fleet in the first hours. The SAM system is comparable to Israel's and the air force can hold its own.
You are assuming that China will attempt an contested landing. Considering the vast gap between the PLAAF, PLARF and ROC military, China will most likely attempt landing only after they have degraded Taiwan's defences to a degree that landings would not be resisted in great strenghth. And also PLAN warships have world-class missile defence capability as well. What makes you think that Taiwan has the capacity to wipe out the PLA landing fleet? The ROC military is lacking in both quanity and quality compared to the PLA, it can't defend Taiwan without American help. The only way Taiwan can defend itself is with the direct help of the US or Japaneses military. Otherwise China will win.
@@CrasusC yes but the goal is to make it as costly as possible for china to invade so that they would be forced to sabre rattling only but not to the point of invasion
The US will stand by Taiwan just as it stood by the puppet Afghan regime, and now the Ukrainians. They are abandoning Ukraine as we speak and evacuating their own embassy staff and citizens while preventing Ukrainians from leaving to the US for safety, locking them into killzones and sacrificed in the hopes it can contain the Russians.. The US too hopes to see the Chinese on Taiwan (Republic of China 中华民国） kill each other - aiding their goals of eradicating all Chinese threats. The Taiwanese are also viewed as racially inferior in the US and in reality no different from the Chinese with the same eyes, faces, hair color, culture, history and language and surnames.)
I can provide another prospective here, conscripts working with professional soldiers is actually a very competitive idea IMO. As a very high ratio (like 40%) of lieutenants and corporals are actually drafted conscripts from top schools, those top talents bring the newest ideas and technics from the campus into the military and makes the military system stay creative and the military becomes the ultimate societal forge. It's like you graduate from an university and join an one year summer camp, we actually did draft battle plan and participated in simulations and drills. And it is this co-operative environment that have hatched the spirit and confidence the we can defend ourselves.
Doesnt mean anything. We saw it here in europe. When we atacked russia, they just spammed tanks and aircraft until our army want capable to cope it anymore. This will happen again with China and taiwan and china will outproduce the USSR by a large margin due to their insane economy.
Actually he said, "Which _hopefully_ may not be unavoidable" Which is worse. And I'm going to assume it's lost in translation, because he's not a psychopath.
@@MostlyPennyCat Fair, I did miss the 'hopefully'... But I'm betting it was one of those "probably, kinda, sorta, possibly' type rambling structures that English really needs a name for.
I wish you talked more about sea mines, as I've heard that being a potential critical tool for defending Taiwan. I can imagine this become an even more useful strategy going forward with drone technology. Just flood the strait with drone torpedoes/mines denying almost any vessel from crossing successfully.
A great video overall. However, I did notice a couple of errors regarding the ROC Army's CM-11 and CM-12 tanks. The CM-11 tank is actually a modified M48A3 turret with an M1A1 tank's fire control system attached to an M60 chassis. The CM-12 tank was made with the retrofitting of the remaining 100 M-1A1 tank's fire control systems with the M48 tanks.
The Taiwan armed forces dont have to prevail. They only have to inflict losses on the attacking forces and on mainline China. China only wins if they win quickly with few losses and sieze Taiwan largely intact.
We British do but only in the context of those responsible for a ship talking about the souls onboard. I've never given much thought as to where that came from.
I listened to Lee Hsi-min, he is the retired Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Armed Forces, and he says that Taiwan needs more asymmetrical weapons to deal with a Chinese invasion. Anyone that is interested in this guy's ideas should watch "Taiwan Project Conference Keynotes | Hoover Institution" on youtube, the man has got some badass thoughts on warfare between Taiwan and China.
I believe Lee and Huang (another former Chief of Defence Staff, ROC) have very different understanding on what "asymmetrical" stands for. While both are admirals the latter is a submariner who later became the master mind behind ROC Navy Indigenous Defence Submarine (IDS) project. Huang sees a stealthy, lithium (or AIP) battery equipped submarine the trump card against the PLAN landing ships and logistic train, while Lee seemed very much focused on (relatively) low-tech missile-boat swarms, something IMO would become very vulnerable against the rapidly modernising PLA naval aviation.
Lee would be one of the first officiers who surrendered to CCP, since we know that KMT had a long tradition of surrendering without fight, ruclips.net/video/5c3jLDdDuD0/видео.html
@@Emilechen Can you be anymore transparent? But let me point out the UBER OBVIOUS, o.k? If the KMT had such a long tradition of surrender, why hasn't the CCP been occupying the island of Taiwan for the last 70 years? The Chinese communists aren't just the worst communists, (sorry Venezuela, you are second.) but they are the most obtuse communists as well.
Taiwan is pretty modern and liberal and sadly that comes with a false sense of security and an unwillingness to commit to warfare. Let's hope they get to their senses.
Thanks for the analysis; there are going to be conflicting opinions on the topic on a range of points but it’s important to have the discussions. I would urge you to update or put out a video on this once a year as this is situation is changing. Also, for Taiwan I would urge them to play the hand they are given to the utmost; encourage support for increased spending on military capabilities and urge leaders to concentrate on asymmetric systems and national strategies that focus on presenting the mainland with a cost analysis that causes them to think things over. Prioritize mobile air defense in layers, man-portable anti-tank and anti-air system purchases, concentrate on electronic warfare capabilities and ESPECIALLY cyber warfare (have teams prepared to operate outside Taiwan to aggressively attack continuously) be prepared to mine on land and sea, and train, train, train your armed forces and grow them.
Taiwan needs to put less emphasis on conventional methods of survival like its air force, and focus more on irregular systems to stop the inevitable rain of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles as well as delay any invasion force to the mainland. More Patriot and Sky Bow launchers and missiles. AEGIS Ashore and other BMD shields. Modern diesel subs and fast mine deploying ships. A grounded air force is not a useful one.
@@hominmundus Just look the Ukraine, you have to defend your country till kingdom come, look at the geology. US Will come, Japan is there, and if there's a spoiler, India with bad blood might try to pressure China. Look at it, Russian army isn't really that strong except for nuclear provocations. Who's to help China, N Korea also Nuclear bullshit. This is going to be interesting. With just a Button, we're all going to be Kentucky fried chicken, my friend
those mountain are useless because it isn't protect the big city, Most of taiwan big city are in the western side of formosa island and at the coast. Make it easy to conquer once china is land their troop
China would need D-day like preparations in order to invade. Naval invasions by experienced nations are not easy. During d-day the allies had surprise, experience, numbers, and overwhelming air and sea supremacy(not just superiority) . An invasion would be extremely difficult if Taiwan decided to fight hard
not only that, but the amount of ground troops and vehicles for the landing, the ships for said landing and the entire supplies and logistics chain would mean a massive buildup on the chinese coasts near Taiwan that would be difficult to hide, so unless the chinese do a masterful cover up and deception plan they would be noticed way before the invasion began
Who knew that Taiwan is as powerful as Nazi Germany? Get real, Taiwan is a extremely small country in terms of Geography with a weak military. The war will be over in a week.
@@thetruthhurts9750 Germany had to cover thousands of miles of shore line...From the artic to Italy and Greece. It was fighting 6+ million Soviets in the east and the allies in Italy. When D-day occurred Not to mention all its anti partisan operations throughout Europe. So, as you say Taiwan is small, so they can cover the landing areas much easier than Germany could. When you look at amphibious invasions through out history what you realize is that they are rare and difficult in the extreme. Overwhelming force and Logistics are the keys. If China got 50,000(Not enough) troops on the shore(I don't see how) they would have to supply them. And. Logistics is what separates arm chair warriors from real military leaders. How are they going to supply them? By sea or air... Not easy if Japan, Australia, the USA and their allies help defend Taiwan. Maybe Taiwan rolls over and gives up. But if they hang tough they will win. My guess is China is talking tough for domestic consumption(get people's minds off of problems) and for diplomatic (weak US leadership)reasons. I also think if they want to take Taiwan, it will be through subversive measures. An invasion is not likely.......more likely now than 3 years ago or 10 years ago but still unlikely. I will also add that I hope it doesn't happen. I hate the idea of war between nuclear powers. Rumor has it Taiwan might be a nuclear power and China and the USA definitely are.
@@elrond3737 On January 12, 1988, Zhang Xianyi of the Taiwan Institute of Nuclear Energy carried classified information on Taiwan's nuclear weapons research and development, and his family fled to the United States under the arrangement of the United States. He was a spy set up by the US Central Intelligence Agency. On January 13, 1988, Taiwanese President Chiang Ching-kuo died of illness in Taipei. After Chiang Ching-kuo's death, Lee Teng-hui took over. Lee Teng-hui proposed Taiwan independence during his tenure in 1990 and 1996, which led to the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. The United States sent an aircraft carrier to the Taiwan Strait to interfere in China's internal affairs. On January 15, 1988, the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a surprise inspection of the Taiwan Nuclear Research Institute, dismantling equipment and taking away a large number of instruments and equipment. Under the control of the United States, Taiwan has no nuclear weapons. Chiang Ching-kuo was the son of Chiang Kai-shek. From 1948 to 1949, Chiang Kai-shek felt that his defeat in the civil war between the Chinese mainland and the Communist Party had been decided, and he was ready to evacuate to Taiwan Island, which was blocked by the strait. Before the evacuation, he took the central bank's dollar reserves, transported 2.775 million taels of gold and 15.2 million yuan of silver dollars. , as well as transporting various precious resources and cultural relics from mainland China to Taiwan, the banknotes and gold-yuan coupons left in the hands of 541.67 million people in mainland China are worthless, Chiang Kai-shek failed in the civil war, and Chiang Kai-shek did not take away his more than 500 million citizens, Everything else of value has been brought to Taiwan, so the people who stay on the mainland are not human? The civil war between Taiwan and China across the Taiwan Strait has continued to this day due to the obstruction of the United States and the fact that China is an agricultural country without its own industry.
That 40 day refresher courses per year in Finland is wrong information. Depends on the position but its usually something from none to 10 days in a year/2 years.
Taiwan is a floating air carrier. It needs multiple C-Rams all over the island along with C-arrow missiles including concrete Forts built in the waters around the island like the Philippines.
When talking about the reserved force of Taiwan, the equipment bury in the backyard of barrack must be considered. It could easily equip an armor brigade if digging hard enough! (Meme)
Ok, it is a joke among Taiwanese that the hidden equipment in backyard of barrack. Background : Taiwan Army have a higher level equipment check regularly, your platoon must have the exact number of equipment as you are entitled or you will be in trouble. if you accidentally taken any from other platoon, the quickest way out is to bury it backyard. Joke: On the night before the equipment check, the technician yelling “OMG our truck's engine was stolen!”. The old sergeant remained calm and just grabbed a shovel and walked into the woods behind the barrack and then comeback with an engine with him. The variants of this joke from a firing pin to a frigate could be found on internet. After those jokes, another joke about the hidden treasures under the backyard of barrack started.
@@adammartin2846 Yep, ironically Napoleon's army was at its greatest strength after 5 years of peace time. His new Grande Armée was reorganized into corps, deadwood generals were replaced and the army was intensely drilled for years. Then after 10 years of warfare the Grande Armée was a shadow of its former self.
Agreed. Or not just an equipment, force unit breakdown but a terrain understanding for that will be key. Is it all beach? Are weapons hidden in hill caves, etc?
@@seandelaney1700 Maybe factor in too that China has the infrastructure to rebuild replicas of key locations or equipment for training such as the Taiwanese capital building and American carriers
@@thelieutenant7732 Yes, I've seen video of those in Mongolia. They can train excessively for years for a blitzkrieg like shock attack, which is a significant strength, surprise and being well trained.
Good job to tell the truth especially the last sentence to express the real situation in Taiwan. People always say they will fight but only know when it happens
As Ukraine shows: People who are defending their homes and families trump people who are invading because their tyrant says to do so. What Taiwan lacks compared to Ukraine is, size and numbers.
@Marou S The Russians are going to have one hell of an insurgency on their hands. What Finland & Ukraine historically have in common is, their respective partisans love nothing more than to kill invaders, especially Ruskies. The country has been invaded by everyone and their grandmothers since the 12th century when the Kyven Russ Nation disintegrated. The only reason the Soviets managed to quell uprisings is, Stalin starved an estimated 3 to 8 million something Putin can't do. That is the one thing that would force 'Western Powers' to intervene.
Being surrounded by water and with limited accessible coastline will do a lot for you though. It takes less people to effectively defend an island than a place like Ukraine.
I would increase conscription to at least 8 months with an incentive to join to Reserve Forces. Reserve Forces should get weekend training for at least 26 weeks of the year. Taiwan's biggest focus overall should be on guerilla warfare. Less focus on vehicles and more on AT rockets, AA missiles and Anti-Ship missiles. Trucks should be used to get troops quickly to the shore. Taiwan could even consider making Technicals.
Look whatever you think about Taiwanese is they're no Taliban who living in and out of their caves by jihad. They're modern liberal urbanite who wants nothing but keeping themselves comfortable. They'll tolerate changes of government and some stricter laws as long as they can keep their livelihood mostly unchanged.
@Drew Peacock The neologism "technical" describing such a vehicle is believed to have originated in Somalia during the Somali Civil War in the early 1990s. Barred from bringing in private security, non-governmental organizations hired local gunmen to protect their personnel, using money defined as "technical assistance grants". Eventually the term broadened to include any vehicle carrying armed men. However, an alternative account is given by Michael Maren, who says the term was first used in Somalia in the 1980s, after engineers from Soviet arms manufacturer Tekniko mounted weapons on vehicles for the Somali National Movement during the Somaliland War of Independence. "Technicals" have also been referred to as "battlewagons" and "guntrucks".
@Drew Peacock I don't see how this is a difficult concept to grasp. If the vehicle was made from the ground up with military intentions and weapons, it's one of many military vehicles. If the vehicle was made from the ground up with civilian intentions and no innate weapon features, but then later has a machinegun bolted to it, it's a Technical. What is this argument? Is a go-cart with a mortar strapped to it, a tank to you? What's your definition of a dump truck with a 105mm Recoilless Rifle attached to it?
Something that I don’t think is fully appreciated is China’s dependence on maritime commerce for raw materials. A fight in that sea would disrupt shipping and there’s no way they could reliably defend against raiding on the open ocean. Their navy would be too busy defending the landing force and subsequent occupation force’s supplies
@@qarmatianwarhorse6028 B&R I has a great many applications for China and is really a brilliant policy to transition them into a post industrial economy. However it depends on underdeveloped nations being 1) stable enough to maintain the infrastructure and 2) their ability to enforce their ownership/repossession of assets which is unlikely if they’re penned into the South China Sea
@@justinokraski3796 Haven't they been leasing ports through debt traps/promises of investment throughout the indian ocean? Sri Lanka is the most prominent one that comes to mind, as does Pakistan (albeit this is Arabian Sea, mind you).
На Украине: не проводится мобилизация населения, украинских войск на всей границе с РФ и РБ, готовых к войне - тоже нет, госпитали/пожарные к войне не готовятся, президент Украины именно сейчас покинул страну и в столь трудное время, делает это регулярно )) ВОЙНЫ НЕ БУДЕТ, Россия не собирается оккупировать никчёмную Укр!
*Simple answer is No.* Their Compulsory Military enlistment isn't like those of South Korea or Israel. Taiwans Compulsory enlistment only last under 3 months, and most of it (training) is behind a desk, and not in and on the field (excercise). There's a youtube video floating around of a Taiwanese Artillery squad manning a howizter (fire practice) and it took them almost 10 minutes from firing, reloading, and firing again, in that time where minutes count, the chinese army already taken the Beaches.
About a decade ago, one Taiwanese senator questioned the defense minister at a congress hearing about how long Taiwan could resist an attack by mainland China. The defense minister's answer was "one week". Another unfortunate fact is that, China's military power has grown much faster than Taiwan's in the last decade.
mate, it's fine, that´s around the same time that we have an official estimate of how long Finland could withstand against Russia. that's just how small vs. big always is. at least you have not banned mines, strategically gimping yourself, as we did in 2011. as per the Ottawa treaty. even when opposed by the ministry of defense. just for short-term international brownie points. the will to defend is the most critical, however. Afghanistan eventually got rid of the USA. Taiwan and China are not comparable to Russia and Finland in this regard. Taiwan and China have the same culture, people, language. everything about Russia and its people and its customs is alien to us, the Finns. in polls willingness to fight for our country has been steady 70-75% for all the decades it has been recorded. in comparison, in Germany, it's 18%. that´s average in eu. maybe regarding the training, you might want to copy our model? even when it's 6months for normal conscripts and 12months for conscript officers, people still like it. It's full of activity and people go home every weekend, mostly. the well-being of conscripts is quite high in priority. our system has very few professional officers, its kids leading kids, essentially. 90% of the time you are led by the last batch´s conscripts. high in personal responsibility and independence, but also higher in service satisfaction.
Yeah today it's gotta be 3 days tops given how the Chinese economy has exploded in the past 10 years and became the largest domestic economy in the world. In 5 years I doubt Taiwan would resist more than a day. Sucks for Taiwan such an awesome country, being played by superpower rivalries.
@@kjrom Looking at recent events a 3 day estimate is laughable. It would take months at the very least. If the Taiwanese are highly motivated it will be impossible for the CCP to win.
I think some of you severely underestimate the difficulty of a full scale invasion across the sea. The only way of that happening is if Taiwan surrender before even trying.
@@PintheElfKingdom 1 The Chinese Navy is the second largest in the world. 2 The equipment level of the Chinese military is basically a full generation ahead of the Taiwanese. 3 The Taiwan Strait is 160 kilometers wide, while the Chinese army's long-range precision-guided rockets have a range of 400 kilometers.
Personally I feel like Taiwan should focus on fortifying the island, turning the whole thing into a gigantic fortress if possible, with underground bunker like systems running across the entire island.
They have done a lot of that already. Lots of airbases are dug into mountains etc. Their command centers are deep underground as well. But you still have to fight on the surface and against air superiority
They really should follow the Israelis model with a bit of Swiss, where everyone serves 1 to 2 years and everyone that does is in reserves until they are 35 or whatever age would be necessary. I would treat the reserve like the continuing education system for professional people. A set standard of minimum training per time alloted to meet their military qualifications need. Everyone would be issued Equipment which they would be expected to maintain. This way each reserve unit has equipment at their rally location and is well trained, and every citizen is capable of resistance in the case of invasion. They will need large numbers to hold even those few beaches that can support landings, and they will need them equipped and to post quickly.
Emma and her two moms will be wiped out immediately, but luckily there are replacements. Every active duty member that is discharged from the US Armed Forces, is required to be on inactive reserves for another 4 years or so.
My comments were deleted , but just a reminder , Taiwans a free independent country, backed by the U.S, india, Australia, japan, the Philippines , and South Korea.. Chinas quantity over quality half ass navy and air-force dont stand a chance. And they're armies moral would quickly fall. Free hong kong ✊
@CuriousAboutTheWild lost?? 🤣 "a ReBeLlIoUs cHinEsE pRoViNcE" ?? lmfao How long has Taiwan been governing themselves? Sit down CCP Bot. And we never lost lol we still have boots on the ground everywhere.. In your backyard, Pointing guns at you 💀😂 We never lost anything, its known as a 20yr "conflict" Congress never declared a war on any country or province.. Just saddam Hussein, and Osama bin laden.. We then got caught up in snuffing out other insurgencies, and fighting terrorism. While trying to arm and train their countrymen to fight for themselves. Which finally recently the Pentagon realized that they wont fight for themselves, that they surrender like woman, and so there's no point wasting our resources on them anynore. We didnt loose shit, lol we pulled out with so many spoils matter of fact, we left some there for their woman to use lol the gods know they would probably put up a better fight 🤣 We are now directing most of our attention to the real threat . And that is authoritarian communism. Free hong kong, Boycott Beijing winter Olympics 2022. Fuck China
Taiwanese don't like war. They like entertainment like party, food, drink, travel. However, unless they want to end up like Hong Kong, lost all the freedom and everything were administered by China, all Taiwanese must stand up and fight hard. Freedom is not free but require lots of sacrification.
The main question is does china truly have the capability to achieve such a large amphibious invasion ... Kinda like a Operation sea lion situation with the Germans and English the Germans just didn't have the capability
Oh, the Germans certainly had the capability, you forgot though that Australia and NZ sent heaps of reinforcement to "Mother England", suffering huge casualties so that the English could hold their line.
@@crs9796 not so fast, by deploying man-portable anti air systems, truck anti air and well concealed stationary systems taiwan could stiffle chinas air superiority. Also keep in mind they have underground airstrips buried in the mountains. You also need to keep in mind the monsoon seasons, China can't afford to get bogged down in a quagmire or else the weather will cut off their forces for most of the year. Given the limited beach heads available for an amphibious assault making even getting a beach head a big if, not to mention the mountainous easy to defend terrain. Basically odds are unless taiwan surrender and don't have the will to fight China will be stuck in a quagmire with limited windows of time to keep their massive force supplied adequately.
Military with actual experience vs civilians with firearms.. wow, what a recipe for disaster. For the civilians. Sure, more military will die but waaaay more civilians than military. It actually is a recipe for genocide. Why keep the civilians alive at all if all they are is trouble? You should not forget what china did at tinanmen square.
@@HenryElfin Allowing concealed carry as a deterrent and/or stationing armed guards would significantly reduce the amount of school shootings in the US as well as stricter entrance checks, akin to airport security. Schools being gun free is what makes them so widely targetable by people. The only people who can stop illegals with guns without high risk of losing their own lives are other armed people.
There are several questions that need to be answered. First, how badly does China want Taiwan, because that's the primary factor. Second, how badly does Taiwan not want to be taken ? Everything follows those two questions. If Taiwan absolutely positively doesn't want to be taken, then China will probably not want to pay the price. All Taiwan needs to do is hold out for six months (or more) and China will regret ever trying to take it. But if Taiwan isn't "all out" in its defense then its over fairly quickly.
Ukraine has had extensive militisation and sweeping improvements to its military since 2014 including training by nato countries extending not just to its active military but to the training of large numbers of high readiness reservists. Add to this military experience gained in loss of the Crimea and the following endless skrimishs in the donbass region, and you have a realitively well trained and experienced fighting force going into the current conflict.
@@deathtdow Exactly. if Russia had launched the current invasion in 2014, Ukraine would have lost. Going in piecemeal trying to make a new Munich Agreement with the Minsk Accords was Russia's failure.
M60 was outdated even 30 years ago, not to mention M48 and M41. I am surprised they still didnt replaced it. Maybe relatively small nation just has not enough money for all aspects of its military.
They don't expect a tank battle. And indeed, how would China land a large tank army in the first wave? Tanks are planned to be used for close fire support for the infantry. Prevent beachheads from expanding. Should China be able to create a large enough beachhead to land some tank battalions the war would be already lost.
not really the new m60 upgrade makes it equal to the t90 in many ways. you do know the t90 is just an upgraded t72 a tank with a terrible real world reputation. The US fire control and range finder has always been better than russian and chinese tanks. in fact the m60 upgrade by Israel with a 120mm turrent makes the m60 equal to any other main battle tank out there. When all chinese tanks and even the m1a2 tank have weak spots everywhere it makes little difference. The ability of the m60 to fire first is the most important
why would they need to replace it when the m60 is already equal or better than most chinese tanks. china still uses copies of t54,t62 t 72 not exactly high tech at all , still very primitive
@@taiwanno1wan126 Lol wat? M60 has almost no armor, it cant take a punch at all. New turret with 120mm gun makes it self-propelled anti-tank gun, not a tank because tank should be able to withstand some damage.
92% of cutting-edge (below 10 nm)chips are manufactured in Taiwan, 63% of all foundry chips are made in Taiwan from several chipmakers. So when Taiwan stops producing them, China will go to hell first, as SMIC produces mostly low-end 65 nm shown on their financial report.
No, Táiwān's chip production prowess relies on its human capital: the ability to get its most specialized engineers experienced and quickly redeployed to the fab station that needs the most attention as they start deviating from their subatomically tight tolerances -- this is why their biggest competitor is South Korea and not a more spread-out Mainland China, Japan, or US. A PRC seizure would see the irreplaceable loss of these critical Taiwanese brains, not to mention those fab stations that were knocked completely out of alignment in the process. Even if China manages to redevelop a native production level equal to that of today's Táiwān, it would already have been surpassed by the nimbler South Korea, maybe Japan, and probably even Singapore.
@@genuinennessbefitting4734 BS, Korea and America also make chips under 10nm. Chip production will be affected in short term but soon there will be other firms from other countries take Taiwans' place, Samsung for one, will be very happy to do that.
"hopefully may not be unavoidable" is weird English. It means hopefully will happen, which I bet you didn't intend. Double negative with flair? IDK.. my brain is having a hard time with it.
I like this variation of the Binkov format. The usual format: "Malaysia attacks Singapore, but nobody else gets involved - and no nukes" is a bit of artificial. Obviously other people would get involved, and a realistic scenario would be heavily about who they are and what they could do. But of course Binkov is still worth watching because of his comparison of the forces two potential belligerents have under their own direct control. In this format that's exactly what you are promised and get.
Okay but Taiwan should rent out some space on some USAF bases I mean we're just letting them use our real estate it would be suicide for china to go for it
the modern soldier, Taiwanese of Chinese is not the same zealot of the Chinese civl war, they both have different priorities in life from those 75 years ago. I believe that even if China will somehow manage to conquer Taiwain, they will suffer so many casualties that it will shake the very foundation of Chinese society, with all the might of the aparatus of the Chinese government to supress dissent- the cries of thousands of widowers and mothers will not be silenced. there still is a social contract between the Chinese government and it's people, and the last thing the Chinese people want is to be return in coffins from a terrible war, and not even the idealized reunification of Taiwan will make up for how many losses such a war will create. it will simply not be worth it to lose so many sailors, soldiers and marines and than be isolated from the world even further just to take over Taiwan. I think China won't genuinely risk it, they gamble on the long run game, and the military threats today are simply a show of force for the Americans, and the rest of the world. I'm not sure China will be able to reunify with Taiwain "peacefully" either, the world will slowly but surely manage to recognize Taiwan and China will find out that it won't be able to contain this sentiment internationally. there won't be a grand war, there won't be reunification, I expect the CCP to abandon reunification and focus inward. the old guard of the CCP, the "Wolf Warriors" are the ones who push for reunification the most, but I'm pretty sure the more pragmatic leaders in the CCP see it as a lost cause better left for the pages of history.
Truism: the best defence is a potent offence. You can defend all you like, but the best way to handle China is to inflict pain. Invasion of China or victory is out of the question for Taiwan, so the goal must be to make any attack on Tawain by the CCP a very painful exercise. So, where is China vulnerable? What are the pressure points? Shipping. Infrastructure (power stations, fuel). Also: domestic politics. The CCP is always fearing for its own safety, and greatly fears any military loss for the impact it will have internally.
@Drew Peacock The problem is that it would greatly harm Australia. Unfortunately, Australia is highly reliant on China for both resources exports, and imports, which is why China's bullying and economic warfare is so dangerous.
taiwan would win easy, when china tries that landing and 70 percent of its forces are dead on the first day at what point do you think the generals will just give up. On top of that you have some attacks from outside countries on the china mainland and huge sanctions. that 70 percent figure only gets bigger with more reinforcements. The only way china can win is land 1 million plus in one hit and thats impossible. All those so called fishing boats will be wiped out very quickly. you underestimate what a home advantage can do. The US had a similiar fight once in the 70s i think with Cebu, if the enermy knows your coming the beach invasion just doesnt work
@Drew Peacock Fortunately, the Australian government has seen the light, and has been trying to decouple for the last few years. There are some recalcitrants (e.g. the Victorian Labor government, which still wants a Belt and Road deal with China), and business voices who'd rather see us appease China, but most Australians seem to understand that China is not a friend, but an aggressor. Even New Zealand is finally changing its fence-sitting routine. Mostly, this all comes down to how badly Xi and is minions have handled relations. They sought to kill the chicken (Australia) to scare the monkeys, but it hasn't worked.
@Drew Peacock Yes, really. Exports only tell one part of the story. There's gross sales of ore to China, but then there's Australia's defence posture and relationships with neighbours. Look at the re-emergence of the QUAD as an alliance against China. The CCP is super-pissed about it. And then improving ties with South Korea. And getting (maybe, one day) nuclear subs. And the crackdown on CCP influencers in Australia.
Hahhahah , if that so was the case (which it isnt) china would have never provoked half the world at this point , idk china knows something we dont , maybe china hosts a monopoly due to its huge size of market or maybe other factors, but there is definitely something ,otherwise they wouldnt have provoked india and us the 2 worlds largest market
@@t69shabir20 "idk china knows something we dont" Sometimes leaders and bureaucrats really are just that incompetent. China having a coal shortage for insulting Australia is proof that the CCP isn't playing 4D-chess.
Once the BRI really takes off, I think they could weather the storm...perhaps growth would take a beating in the short-term but it would still be sufficient enough.
@@MK_ULTRA420 that's not the main reason why there was a power outage because Australian coal wasn't taken off yet. The power companies in the northern provinces decided to "idle" their power generation for factories because the global energy prices were so high at the time and they didn't want to operate at a loss. Now they went on a transition to more natural gas, as well as coal from the US, rather than Australia, essentially making allies eat each other's lunches
One aspect I didn’t hear you discuss was the terrain, in particular the beaches. An article I read some years ago claimed that Taiwan’s beaches are difficult to invade. The article said that the Taiwanese shore is covered by long mudflats, that are very difficult for a landing craft to cross, forcing soldiers to wade ashore very slowly across mudflats hundreds of yards deep. This gives shore defenses a big opportunity to destroy them. I don’t know if there are technological solutions to this problem (maybe hovercraft?). I would be interested to hear a discussion of this aspect.
This isn't WW2. Modern militaries won't attempt a landing until they have complete fire superiority over the landing zone. Even in WW2, brutal amphibious landings under fire from the defenders only happened because something had gone very, very wrong. Omaha beach was the result of a cascade of errors and bad weather leaving the landing divisions without their fire support - the original plan was that all of those bunkers and gun emplacements along the cliffs would've been turned into craters by the time the first landing boat got to the beach.
@@dark7element The PRC doesn't have the luxury of time. Taiwan has truck-mounted missiles that can hit moving ships anywhere from Hong Kong to Shanghai. Those missiles will shut down China's ability to import oil. No one is going to sail a tanker through an active war zone, especially not when anyone is actively targeting commercial tankers. China's strategic oil reserve is three weeks worth. To win, China needs to have enough boots on the ground across the entire island to convince risk-averse shipping companies and their insurance-issuing backers that it is completely safe before that oil runs out.
@@jntiger1981 Wrong question. Need to look at the overall picture. Taiwan: Two months of a collapsed economy and half normal caloric intake to defeat the PRC and earn universal international recognition of Taiwanese sovereignty. In the aftermath, the US, Japan, the EU, etc. provide huge support with rebuilding. PRC: One month of a collapsed economy and half normal caloric intake to end up losing to Taiwan. In the aftermath, the US, Japan, the EU, etc. place crippling sanctions on the PRC for the next several decades.
@@yopyop3241 China is a poor communist country so people has nothing to lose. They survived the 10 -year culture revolution, 3-year great famine caused by the Great Leap Forward. Shortages caused by a few month of war against Taiwan cannot get worse than that. Taiwan, on the other hand, is a prosperous market economy with people spoiled and no past experience of dealing famine. Remember Taiwanese is people who were out on street protesting the government merely for a day or two blackout.
Watched your whole vid, but it was all equipment related, you did not mention anything about Taiwan insurgent groups that might be created behind enemy lines when China invaded by land. They should take a leaf from the Middle East and Afghanistan, IEDs, Snipers, Ambushes, booby traps in buildings, use the terrain ( Forests, Mountains)!!!
Mr Binkov, my favourite internet puppet, question for you: why do you use imperial instead of metric for distances? Are the majority of your viewers in the US?
@Pupil0fGod I smiled at "handy" :-) Yes, it's easier to say an inch than two point five centimetres! And miles and leagues are part of legacy literature. On the other hand people use imperial units and derivatives in ridiculous ways, such as high rocket thrust and large amounts of water.
China has to balance its territorial and military ambitions against the economic sanctions it would inevitably receive from its wealthy trading partners. Russia is facing the same dilemma with its ambitions in Ukraine. It is obvious that China could successfully invade Taiwan (or any of its neighbours), but at what economic cost in future trade.
@@aburetik4866 really, you think china can keep its economy running when the world stops buying their crap? I dont think so, sounds more like you're a bot.
@@RYTG You can't stop buying from China, bcz you don't have a choice. Only China has the capacity to supply the whole world. Without China, your money will be worth less than toilet paper and many of u will have to clean *ss by hand.
@@RYTG Whatever you call it, you are buying it and using it all the time. Your ppl's action speaks louder than your words. And you have no choice but pay money to the Chinese everday. It's you that is angry, bcz you hate it but can do nothing about it. 😂
What benefit would any Asian country get by supporting Taiwanese independence? Taiwanese seeking independence would result in a war between Taiwan, China, and seems like the US and all of its Allies as well. Would Asian counties enjoy the radiation clouds possibly flying into your own country? And would they enjoy losing a major economic trade partner as well, that is if they survive the nuclear fallout? Asian people need to think things through.
@@npc2480 china claims senkaku islands, claims bhutan, have border disputes with India, have border disputes with at least 5 SEA countries over south china seas. How are they "western"?
The number of Chinese troops is irrelevant if they can't get them across an ocean. I'd imagine most of the Taiwan troops would hide in bunkers while the bombs drop, then pop up once the Chinese storm the beaches. There would probably be mines and all sorts of traps setup as well. It would be a suicide mission for most of the Chinese infantry. They will also have to deal with US navy and air force, along with Japan, Australia etc. And assuming they can overcome all of that, i highly doubt the Taiwanese people will lay down and accept Chinese rule.
@@brodiethebuilder8496 honestly it's pretty much guaranteed that if China invaded Taiwan the USA will join the war on Taiwan's side this has been basically guaranteed so China won't just be fighting the small island but the whole USA and most of NATO
Capable subs are not easy to build. Those countries that could supply the need do not want the antagonize the CCP. They won't sell to Taiwan. The US only builds nuclear.
Yes, they would be useful, and that is exactly why China's been putting pressure on any country that could sell Taiwan subs. The recent development is that Taiwan is building its own subs with helps from other countries, with Taiwanese officials claiming the construction's going well.
@@scorpiontdalpha9799 oh lordy, you know a f35 costs less than f16v(aka garbage that USA sells to Taiwan), right? Doing a little googling and stop embarrassing yourself
It's actually quite emotional to hear a western medium covering the actual details about the conscription here, including the 4 months term and the actual lack of training plus how the military is planning to tackle it. As someone who's just finished his service on the offshore island of Kinmen, I resonate and echo these statements very much.
Kinmen really ? Thats must be like the worst assignment lol
@@Kaxcer I volunteered for it actually. Both my dad and grandad served there, so I thought I should be a part of the heritage. Plus, I also went to my Dad's old barracks; turned out it's being used by cost guard now. It's a shame but the thought itself is worth-cherishing already :>
@@nelsoncheng2674 nice, but must be dangerous being so close to mainland. So in your opinion will taiwanese fight if needed ?
Better to work on your career in other field. If war breaks out the PRC will conquer Taiwan within weeks and your death would be in vain, leaving many people hurt.
@@m3c4nyku43 god, please just leave. You can cash in on your 50 cents elsewhere.
I’ve played conflict of nations before. It’s 100% pay to win.
not really i play for a while only 1 golder
Of course all most all mobile games are. The few exceptions are usually the ones which started off as browser games. Pay to win and grind to win.
Learn to Hack/Mod it. Problem solved😉
Not if your active 😂
Real life war is literally pay to win too
Used to watch this channel just as entertainment but due to the recent events, I now use this as a source of trustable information.
Agreed
Once served in Taiwan army years ago, I have some mixed feeling seeing a well-introductory video like this describing the issue Taiwanese army is facing. I sincerely hope that the authority can recognize and improve the situation more proactively...
As an American I fully support your independence, and if push comes to shove and they invade I plan on joining my marines to help defend your country
Failure to reinforce you is failure of other nations to defend their rights too......
Whatever happens you can thank Xi Jinping and the Peoples Liberation Army for that
The issue is the Taiwanese people themselves. A well trained 2 million man reserve forces can easily repel any PLA landing force. The key is a well trained reserve force with plenty of man portable guided missiles and access to drones.
The ultimate key is for the Taiwanese people to believe in themselves and to be active in their defense. They need to make gun clubs and gun ownership a priority like the Swiss. They need to take active part in the defense of their own country. It's easy to do if they only believe in themselves.
If anything, its Taiwan's own fault for not keeping up their trainning and equipment.
Yes, conscription is so called "slave labour". I've also been a concription, Singapore.
The thing is, it's like Israel and Palestine situation.
Yes, Palestine is morally right but they are wrong in a sense their own failure to defend themselves in times of crisis.
The world is grey.
You just have to love how half of the comment section have zero idea of what they are talking about.
Overall a really realistic overview of the Taiwanese military. Thank you for covering this.
For someone living in Taiwan and served in Taiwan's Marine corps for nearly two years, this is most objective coverage I have watched so far.👍👍👍
As a American I stand behind you! Respects
We all stand behind you guys, you have a Ton of Friends.
@@markmilam3152 I stand behind you too
Take my gun and defend Taiwan while I sip my tea
Leaks from you side were saying they won't take arms against the PLA, and would surrender as soon as the PLA show up. Or are you guys ready for a Stalingrad / Grozny style street fight?
中華民國萬歲！
I think that is always the wrong question. The question is: Can Taiwan make the cost of invasion so high that it prevents China from doing it? Because if it was for pure muzzle, Taiwan can’t stand a chance .
It is probably hard because most of Taiwan concript soldier have very short mandatory training (only 3 month). So the morale are not pretty high
If an invasion is attempted, there is no turning back for the CCP. It’s a matter of political legitimacy and show of strength, to such a high degree that abandoning the operation would mean political suicide. If you’re going to reply to this, please keep the discussion at a respectful and conducted level. I’m pretty sure neither of us wants this comment section to be a shitshow.
@@elsauce4873 its a military video they always have shitshow comment sections I just turn off my brain and laugh from the backrow seats.
@@NineSeptims Well, your name is comment section expert
That's right my friend and the NATO allies are that
The question is not "Can China take over?", the question is "Are they willing to pay the cost?".
Yes they do
Most people commenting do not understand how much transport and supplies you would need for an amphibious assault. Most rational Chinese sources suggest to force Taiwan into surrender through missile bombardment and possibly a special operation to capture/assassinate its leaders. You could only send in a few divisions with all ships and planes combined. There are 200,000 ROC soldiers.
A landing would be extremely costly even if it is successful. Taiwan has hundreds of modern mobile ASM capable of wiping out over half of the invasion fleet in the first hours. The SAM system is comparable to Israel's and the air force can hold its own.
You are assuming that China will attempt an contested landing. Considering the vast gap between the PLAAF, PLARF and ROC military, China will most likely attempt landing only after they have degraded Taiwan's defences to a degree that landings would not be resisted in great strenghth. And also PLAN warships have world-class missile defence capability as well. What makes you think that Taiwan has the capacity to wipe out the PLA landing fleet? The ROC military is lacking in both quanity and quality compared to the PLA, it can't defend Taiwan without American help.
The only way Taiwan can defend itself is with the direct help of the US or Japaneses military. Otherwise China will win.
@@CrasusC and you believe Taiwan has not prepared for that eventuality?
@@CrasusC yes but the goal is to make it as costly as possible for china to invade so that they would be forced to sabre rattling only but not to the point of invasion
taiwan only have 40 mobile anti ship launcher. while china can fire 160000 370mm rockets in a week
@@exurgemars preparation as limits when you are facing a superior foe.
Being in Taiwan while watching a puppet explain the military situation is a trip and a half.
The US will stand by Taiwan just as it stood by the puppet Afghan regime, and now the Ukrainians.
They are abandoning Ukraine as we speak and evacuating their own embassy staff and citizens while preventing Ukrainians from leaving to the US for safety, locking them into killzones and sacrificed in the hopes it can contain the Russians..
The US too hopes to see the Chinese on Taiwan (Republic of China 中华民国） kill each other - aiding their goals of eradicating all Chinese threats. The Taiwanese are also viewed as racially inferior in the US and in reality no different from the Chinese with the same eyes, faces, hair color, culture, history and language and surnames.)
@@slslbbn4096 tell that to the chinese senators we r electing doofus
@@rbsingh7906 you make laugh
@@slslbbn4096 what r u on about
@@slslbbn4096 this aged so poorly, my god
I can provide another prospective here, conscripts working with professional soldiers is actually a very competitive idea IMO. As a very high ratio (like 40%) of lieutenants and corporals are actually drafted conscripts from top schools, those top talents bring the newest ideas and technics from the campus into the military and makes the military system stay creative and the military becomes the ultimate societal forge. It's like you graduate from an university and join an one year summer camp, we actually did draft battle plan and participated in simulations and drills. And it is this co-operative environment that have hatched the spirit and confidence the we can defend ourselves.
It's how prussia worked too, and prussia is famous for its military eliteness
Doesnt mean anything. We saw it here in europe. When we atacked russia, they just spammed tanks and aircraft until our army want capable to cope it anymore. This will happen again with China and taiwan and china will outproduce the USSR by a large margin due to their insane economy.
@@semiramisubw4864 When we attacked Russia????? Talking about Nazi Germany?
"Which may not be unavoidable..."
Damn. Binkov's an optimist.
Actually he said, "Which _hopefully_ may not be unavoidable"
Which is worse.
And I'm going to assume it's lost in translation, because he's not a psychopath.
@@MostlyPennyCat Fair, I did miss the 'hopefully'... But I'm betting it was one of those "probably, kinda, sorta, possibly' type rambling structures that English really needs a name for.
I wish you talked more about sea mines, as I've heard that being a potential critical tool for defending Taiwan.
I can imagine this become an even more useful strategy going forward with drone technology. Just flood the strait with drone torpedoes/mines denying almost any vessel from crossing successfully.
You should do one of these for Ukraine too given current events.
I have been soooo looking forward to this 💪🥳🙏 thanks Binkov!
I love the videos from Binkov’s Battlegrounds! The subjects are relevant and or entertaining. Keep up the great work. 👍
A great video overall. However, I did notice a couple of errors regarding the ROC Army's CM-11 and CM-12 tanks. The CM-11 tank is actually a modified M48A3 turret with an M1A1 tank's fire control system attached to an M60 chassis. The CM-12 tank was made with the retrofitting of the remaining 100 M-1A1 tank's fire control systems with the M48 tanks.
Nnneeeeeeerrrddd
The Taiwan armed forces dont have to prevail. They only have to inflict losses on the attacking forces and on mainline China. China only wins if they win quickly with few losses and sieze Taiwan largely intact.
Occupation is another problem for PRC. Since they are of same ethnicity underground movements will be difficult to quashed.
如果大陆老百姓有了伤亡。台湾只会变成废墟。本身大陆的老百姓对台湾武统的声浪很高。而且对于台湾动不动就造谣抹黑大陆怨念特别深。
@@朱弘宇-j2n Nice Korea flag Mr. China
@@朱弘宇-j2n 你的中文好奇妙。好Kaiwaii.
@@81Earthangel 他犯了國安法,不夠愛國。要做前線兵做弟一個去死先。
West Taiwan would be wise not to attack Taiwan
23 milion souls, you can hear that only from Slavic people and that is so nice, no one else uses word soul when we talk about lots of people. 🙂
We British do but only in the context of those responsible for a ship talking about the souls onboard.
I've never given much thought as to where that came from.
@@eps200well, Taiwan is like a large, stationary aircraft carrier
I listened to Lee Hsi-min, he is the retired Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Armed Forces, and he says that Taiwan needs more asymmetrical weapons to deal with a Chinese invasion. Anyone that is interested in this guy's ideas should watch "Taiwan Project Conference Keynotes | Hoover Institution" on youtube, the man has got some badass thoughts on warfare between Taiwan and China.
I believe Lee and Huang (another former Chief of Defence Staff, ROC) have very different understanding on what "asymmetrical" stands for. While both are admirals the latter is a submariner who later became the master mind behind ROC Navy Indigenous Defence Submarine (IDS) project. Huang sees a stealthy, lithium (or AIP) battery equipped submarine the trump card against the PLAN landing ships and logistic train, while Lee seemed very much focused on (relatively) low-tech missile-boat swarms, something IMO would become very vulnerable against the rapidly modernising PLA naval aviation.
Lee would be one of the first officiers who surrendered to CCP, since we know that KMT had a long tradition of surrendering without fight,
ruclips.net/video/5c3jLDdDuD0/видео.html
@Drew Peacock That is what Lee Hsi-min is trying to convey.
@@llamaalpaca5563 yes he talks about unmanned attack boat swarms but that is only a fraction of his ideas.
@@Emilechen Can you be anymore transparent? But let me point out the UBER OBVIOUS, o.k? If the KMT had such a long tradition of surrender, why hasn't the CCP been occupying the island of Taiwan for the last 70 years? The Chinese communists aren't just the worst communists, (sorry Venezuela, you are second.) but they are the most obtuse communists as well.
Very informative, thank you. I had no idea. I always thought that Taiwan was well prepared. This was an eye opener.
Taiwan is pretty modern and liberal and sadly that comes with a false sense of security and an unwillingness to commit to warfare.
Let's hope they get to their senses.
Just put your anti ship missile batteries on the roofs of the chip fabs. Hell of a dilemma.
Even if China takes the chip fabs they can't use them.
Thanks for the analysis; there are going to be conflicting opinions on the topic on a range of points but it’s important to have the discussions. I would urge you to update or put out a video on this once a year as this is situation is changing. Also, for Taiwan I would urge them to play the hand they are given to the utmost; encourage support for increased spending on military capabilities and urge leaders to concentrate on asymmetric systems and national strategies that focus on presenting the mainland with a cost analysis that causes them to think things over. Prioritize mobile air defense in layers, man-portable anti-tank and anti-air system purchases, concentrate on electronic warfare capabilities and ESPECIALLY cyber warfare (have teams prepared to operate outside Taiwan to aggressively attack continuously) be prepared to mine on land and sea, and train, train, train your armed forces and grow them.
The Ukraine video came true, I hope for humanity Binkovs success rate does not need to be tested again
Taiwan needs to put less emphasis on conventional methods of survival like its air force, and focus more on irregular systems to stop the inevitable rain of Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles as well as delay any invasion force to the mainland.
More Patriot and Sky Bow launchers and missiles.
AEGIS Ashore and other BMD shields.
Modern diesel subs and fast mine deploying ships.
A grounded air force is not a useful one.
Anytime there's a video about Taiwan and China, the comment sections turns into a dumpster fire.
Lmao same thing happens on basically any other similair content, Ukraine-Russia, Turkey-Greece, Israel-any arab nation etc.
true XD
Chinese bots
Binkov: Time for a refresher on Ukraine vs. Russia!
Did you guys ever noticed the mountains all around Taiwan. It's going to be a long time War
I m not sure about taiwanese's will to fight
@@hominmundus Just look the Ukraine, you have to defend your country till kingdom come, look at the geology. US Will come, Japan is there, and if there's a spoiler, India with bad blood might try to pressure China. Look at it, Russian army isn't really that strong except for nuclear provocations. Who's to help China, N Korea also Nuclear bullshit. This is going to be interesting. With just a Button, we're all going to be Kentucky fried chicken, my friend
those mountain are useless because it isn't protect the big city, Most of taiwan big city are in the western side of formosa island and at the coast. Make it easy to conquer once china is land their troop
Short answer: no
Long answer: Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
China would need D-day like preparations in order to invade. Naval invasions by experienced nations are not easy. During d-day the allies had surprise, experience, numbers, and overwhelming air and sea supremacy(not just superiority) . An invasion would be extremely difficult if Taiwan decided to fight hard
not only that, but the amount of ground troops and vehicles for the landing, the ships for said landing and the entire supplies and logistics chain would mean a massive buildup on the chinese coasts near Taiwan that would be difficult to hide, so unless the chinese do a masterful cover up and deception plan they would be noticed way before the invasion began
Who knew that Taiwan is as powerful as Nazi Germany? Get real, Taiwan is a extremely small country in terms of Geography with a weak military. The war will be over in a week.
@@thetruthhurts9750 Germany had to cover thousands of miles of shore line...From the artic to Italy and Greece. It was fighting 6+ million Soviets in the east and the allies in Italy. When D-day occurred Not to mention all its anti partisan operations throughout Europe. So, as you say Taiwan is small, so they can cover the landing areas much easier than Germany could. When you look at amphibious invasions through out history what you realize is that they are rare and difficult in the extreme. Overwhelming force and Logistics are the keys. If China got 50,000(Not enough) troops on the shore(I don't see how) they would have to supply them. And. Logistics is what separates arm chair warriors from real military leaders. How are they going to supply them? By sea or air... Not easy if Japan, Australia, the USA and their allies help defend Taiwan. Maybe Taiwan rolls over and gives up. But if they hang tough they will win. My guess is China is talking tough for domestic consumption(get people's minds off of problems) and for diplomatic (weak US leadership)reasons. I also think if they want to take Taiwan, it will be through subversive measures. An invasion is not likely.......more likely now than 3 years ago or 10 years ago but still unlikely. I will also add that I hope it doesn't happen. I hate the idea of war between nuclear powers. Rumor has it Taiwan might be a nuclear power and China and the USA definitely are.
@@elrond3737 On January 12, 1988, Zhang Xianyi of the Taiwan Institute of Nuclear Energy carried classified information on Taiwan's nuclear weapons research and development, and his family fled to the United States under the arrangement of the United States. He was a spy set up by the US Central Intelligence Agency. On January 13, 1988, Taiwanese President Chiang Ching-kuo died of illness in Taipei. After Chiang Ching-kuo's death, Lee Teng-hui took over. Lee Teng-hui proposed Taiwan independence during his tenure in 1990 and 1996, which led to the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. The United States sent an aircraft carrier to the Taiwan Strait to interfere in China's internal affairs. On January 15, 1988, the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency conducted a surprise inspection of the Taiwan Nuclear Research Institute, dismantling equipment and taking away a large number of instruments and equipment. Under the control of the United States, Taiwan has no nuclear weapons. Chiang Ching-kuo was the son of Chiang Kai-shek. From 1948 to 1949, Chiang Kai-shek felt that his defeat in the civil war between the Chinese mainland and the Communist Party had been decided, and he was ready to evacuate to Taiwan Island, which was blocked by the strait. Before the evacuation, he took the central bank's dollar reserves, transported 2.775 million taels of gold and 15.2 million yuan of silver dollars. , as well as transporting various precious resources and cultural relics from mainland China to Taiwan, the banknotes and gold-yuan coupons left in the hands of 541.67 million people in mainland China are worthless, Chiang Kai-shek failed in the civil war, and Chiang Kai-shek did not take away his more than 500 million citizens, Everything else of value has been brought to Taiwan, so the people who stay on the mainland are not human? The civil war between Taiwan and China across the Taiwan Strait has continued to this day due to the obstruction of the United States and the fact that China is an agricultural country without its own industry.
That 40 day refresher courses per year in Finland is wrong information. Depends on the position but its usually something from none to 10 days in a year/2 years.
Are you going to make an update on Ukraine?
Ожидается празднование Нового Года и Рождества Хр. - ранее февраля 2022, война исключена!
Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face.
~ Mike Tyson
“Don’t believe everything you read on the internet”
~ Abraham Lincoln
@@hashtagunderscore3173 “Don’t write fake quotes.”
~ me
@@yulp1 I don't know what you're taking about. I saw that Abraham Lincoln said that in an announcement in a secret area of GTA V.
It seems like the war has already begun here in the comments
Training the citizens now would be key to it all and asks them to do it on free time
Taiwan is a floating air carrier. It needs multiple C-Rams all over the island along with C-arrow missiles including concrete Forts built in the waters around the island like the Philippines.
When talking about the reserved force of Taiwan, the equipment bury in the backyard of barrack must be considered. It could easily equip an armor brigade if digging hard enough! (Meme)
what.
Context please
Kindly explain the meme please!
Ok, it is a joke among Taiwanese that the hidden equipment in backyard of barrack. Background : Taiwan Army have a higher level equipment check regularly, your platoon must have the exact number of equipment as you are entitled or you will be in trouble. if you accidentally taken any from other platoon, the quickest way out is to bury it backyard.
Joke: On the night before the equipment check, the technician yelling “OMG our truck's engine was stolen!”. The old sergeant remained calm and just grabbed a shovel and walked into the woods behind the barrack and then comeback with an engine with him.
The variants of this joke from a firing pin to a frigate could be found on internet.
After those jokes, another joke about the hidden treasures under the backyard of barrack started.
@@jameschan6345 thank you
To have good soldiers, a nation must always be at war. - Napoleon Bonaparte
Didn't work out for Napoleon or France though did it now?
@@adammartin2846 Yep, ironically Napoleon's army was at its greatest strength after 5 years of peace time. His new Grande Armée was reorganized into corps, deadwood generals were replaced and the army was intensely drilled for years. Then after 10 years of warfare the Grande Armée was a shadow of its former self.
It would be interesting to compare more in depth things like ammunition reserves, oil, maintenance, etc.
Agreed. Or not just an equipment, force unit breakdown but a terrain understanding for that will be key. Is it all beach? Are weapons hidden in hill caves, etc?
@@seandelaney1700 Maybe factor in too that China has the infrastructure to rebuild replicas of key locations or equipment for training such as the Taiwanese capital building and American carriers
@@thelieutenant7732 Yes, I've seen video of those in Mongolia. They can train excessively for years for a blitzkrieg like shock attack, which is a significant strength, surprise and being well trained.
you know what they say,
TAIWAN no. 1!
Good job to tell the truth especially the last sentence to express the real situation in Taiwan. People always say they will fight but only know when it happens
Taiwan needs Emma and her two moms to defend them.
😂
Indeed
Supplying an army large enough to defeat the Taiwanese military across the straits would be a monumental logistical challenge.
As Ukraine shows:
People who are defending their homes and families trump people who are invading because their tyrant says to do so.
What Taiwan lacks compared to Ukraine is, size and numbers.
@Marou S The Russians are going to have one hell of an insurgency on their hands. What Finland & Ukraine historically have in common is, their respective partisans love nothing more than to kill invaders, especially Ruskies.
The country has been invaded by everyone and their grandmothers since the 12th century when the Kyven Russ Nation disintegrated.
The only reason the Soviets managed to quell uprisings is, Stalin starved an estimated 3 to 8 million something Putin can't do. That is the one thing that would force 'Western Powers' to intervene.
Being surrounded by water and with limited accessible coastline will do a lot for you though. It takes less people to effectively defend an island than a place like Ukraine.
Title: Can Taiwan defend itself?
0:15: but this video isn't about if Taiwan can defend itself.
literally not the title
How would they fare if they adopted the Swiss doctrine?
A rifle in every house.
Sounds like a LOT of civilian casualties if practically every taiwanese is an enemy.
One aspect of war you did not include here was Jamming. China has one of he largest reserves of jamming equipment.
I would increase conscription to at least 8 months with an incentive to join to Reserve Forces. Reserve Forces should get weekend training for at least 26 weeks of the year. Taiwan's biggest focus overall should be on guerilla warfare. Less focus on vehicles and more on AT rockets, AA missiles and Anti-Ship missiles. Trucks should be used to get troops quickly to the shore. Taiwan could even consider making Technicals.
you really so idealist to think Taiwan strawberry soldiers will fight to the end by guerrilla warfare, lol?
@Drew Peacock like trucks with an anti air cannon on the back???
Look whatever you think about Taiwanese is they're no Taliban who living in and out of their caves by jihad. They're modern liberal urbanite who wants nothing but keeping themselves comfortable. They'll tolerate changes of government and some stricter laws as long as they can keep their livelihood mostly unchanged.
@Drew Peacock The neologism "technical" describing such a vehicle is believed to have originated in Somalia during the Somali Civil War in the early 1990s. Barred from bringing in private security, non-governmental organizations hired local gunmen to protect their personnel, using money defined as "technical assistance grants". Eventually the term broadened to include any vehicle carrying armed men. However, an alternative account is given by Michael Maren, who says the term was first used in Somalia in the 1980s, after engineers from Soviet arms manufacturer Tekniko mounted weapons on vehicles for the Somali National Movement during the Somaliland War of Independence. "Technicals" have also been referred to as "battlewagons" and "guntrucks".
@Drew Peacock I don't see how this is a difficult concept to grasp. If the vehicle was made from the ground up with military intentions and weapons, it's one of many military vehicles. If the vehicle was made from the ground up with civilian intentions and no innate weapon features, but then later has a machinegun bolted to it, it's a Technical.
What is this argument?
Is a go-cart with a mortar strapped to it, a tank to you? What's your definition of a dump truck with a 105mm Recoilless Rifle attached to it?
Something that I don’t think is fully appreciated is China’s dependence on maritime commerce for raw materials. A fight in that sea would disrupt shipping and there’s no way they could reliably defend against raiding on the open ocean. Their navy would be too busy defending the landing force and subsequent occupation force’s supplies
Maybe that's why they're building all those subs
That's why they are banking so heavily on the Belt and Road Initiative, so that they reduce dependence on shipping for commerce.
@@qarmatianwarhorse6028 B&R I has a great many applications for China and is really a brilliant policy to transition them into a post industrial economy. However it depends on underdeveloped nations being 1) stable enough to maintain the infrastructure and 2) their ability to enforce their ownership/repossession of assets which is unlikely if they’re penned into the South China Sea
@@justinokraski3796 Haven't they been leasing ports through debt traps/promises of investment throughout the indian ocean?
Sri Lanka is the most prominent one that comes to mind, as does Pakistan (albeit this is Arabian Sea, mind you).
Hope you discuss Ukrainian military capabilities 2021 against Russia
На Украине: не проводится мобилизация населения, украинских войск на всей границе с РФ и РБ, готовых к войне - тоже нет, госпитали/пожарные к войне не готовятся, президент Украины именно сейчас покинул страну и в столь трудное время, делает это регулярно )) ВОЙНЫ НЕ БУДЕТ, Россия не собирается оккупировать никчёмную Укр!
Let's hope this video isn't put to the test in reality any time soon.
The “F-ck-1“: you really have to wonder if that's coincidence or a double entendre.
The F-CK-1?...
Ok, who wants to fill in the blank?
Apparently they have at least 129 to give.
The F-CK-1 or Indigenous Defense Fighter (IDF) was named after the late President Chiang Ching-Kuo. Yes, the abbreviation is pretty funny.
-1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 social credit score
*Simple answer is No.* Their Compulsory Military enlistment isn't like those of South Korea or Israel. Taiwans Compulsory enlistment only last under 3 months, and most of it (training) is behind a desk, and not in and on the field (excercise). There's a youtube video floating around of a Taiwanese Artillery squad manning a howizter (fire practice) and it took them almost 10 minutes from firing, reloading, and firing again, in that time where minutes count, the chinese army already taken the Beaches.
I think if we learned anything from afghanastan the question is, will they fight?
Yes Taiwan will fight🇹🇼💪🏻
About a decade ago, one Taiwanese senator questioned the defense minister at a congress hearing about how long Taiwan could resist an attack by mainland China. The defense minister's answer was "one week".
Another unfortunate fact is that, China's military power has grown much faster than Taiwan's in the last decade.
mate, it's fine, that´s around the same time that we have an official estimate of how long Finland could withstand against Russia. that's just how small vs. big always is.
at least you have not banned mines, strategically gimping yourself, as we did in 2011. as per the Ottawa treaty. even when opposed by the ministry of defense. just for short-term international brownie points.
the will to defend is the most critical, however. Afghanistan eventually got rid of the USA. Taiwan and China are not comparable to Russia and Finland in this regard. Taiwan and China have the same culture, people, language. everything about Russia and its people and its customs is alien to us, the Finns. in polls willingness to fight for our country has been steady 70-75% for all the decades it has been recorded. in comparison, in Germany, it's 18%. that´s average in eu.
maybe regarding the training, you might want to copy our model? even when it's 6months for normal conscripts and 12months for conscript officers, people still like it. It's full of activity and people go home every weekend, mostly. the well-being of conscripts is quite high in priority. our system has very few professional officers, its kids leading kids, essentially. 90% of the time you are led by the last batch´s conscripts. high in personal responsibility and independence, but also higher in service satisfaction.
Yeah today it's gotta be 3 days tops given how the Chinese economy has exploded in the past 10 years and became the largest domestic economy in the world. In 5 years I doubt Taiwan would resist more than a day. Sucks for Taiwan such an awesome country, being played by superpower rivalries.
@@kjrom Looking at recent events a 3 day estimate is laughable. It would take months at the very least. If the Taiwanese are highly motivated it will be impossible for the CCP to win.
I think some of you severely underestimate the difficulty of a full scale invasion across the sea. The only way of that happening is if Taiwan surrender before even trying.
@@PintheElfKingdom 1 The Chinese Navy is the second largest in the world. 2 The equipment level of the Chinese military is basically a full generation ahead of the Taiwanese. 3 The Taiwan Strait is 160 kilometers wide, while the Chinese army's long-range precision-guided rockets have a range of 400 kilometers.
Personally I feel like Taiwan should focus on fortifying the island, turning the whole thing into a gigantic fortress if possible, with underground bunker like systems running across the entire island.
They have done a lot of that already. Lots of airbases are dug into mountains etc. Their command centers are deep underground as well.
But you still have to fight on the surface and against air superiority
We love you so much Binkov !!!
They really should follow the Israelis model with a bit of Swiss, where everyone serves 1 to 2 years and everyone that does is in reserves until they are 35 or whatever age would be necessary. I would treat the reserve like the continuing education system for professional people. A set standard of minimum training per time alloted to meet their military qualifications need. Everyone would be issued Equipment which they would be expected to maintain. This way each reserve unit has equipment at their rally location and is well trained, and every citizen is capable of resistance in the case of invasion. They will need large numbers to hold even those few beaches that can support landings, and they will need them equipped and to post quickly.
Don't worry Emma and her two moms will protect you Taiwan.
we are fucked
Emma and her two moms will be wiped out immediately, but luckily there are replacements. Every active duty member that is discharged from the US Armed Forces, is required to be on inactive reserves for another 4 years or so.
@@Vod_MacDuff China: Lets w8 4 more yrs till everyone have two moms
My comments were deleted , but just a reminder , Taiwans a free independent country, backed by the U.S, india, Australia, japan, the Philippines , and South Korea..
Chinas quantity over quality half ass navy and air-force dont stand a chance.
And they're armies moral would quickly fall.
Free hong kong ✊
Because China threatens America’s world hegemony, the Americans vilify China
@CuriousAboutTheWild lost?? 🤣 "a ReBeLlIoUs cHinEsE pRoViNcE" ?? lmfao
How long has Taiwan been governing themselves? Sit down CCP Bot.
And we never lost lol we still have boots on the ground everywhere.. In your backyard, Pointing guns at you 💀😂
We never lost anything, its known as a 20yr "conflict"
Congress never declared a war on any country or province.. Just saddam Hussein, and Osama bin laden..
We then got caught up in snuffing out other insurgencies, and fighting terrorism. While trying to arm and train their countrymen to fight for themselves. Which finally recently the Pentagon realized that they wont fight for themselves, that they surrender like woman, and so there's no point wasting our resources on them anynore.
We didnt loose shit, lol we pulled out with so many spoils matter of fact, we left some there for their woman to use lol the gods know they would probably put up a better fight 🤣
We are now directing most of our attention to the real threat . And that is authoritarian communism.
Free hong kong, Boycott Beijing winter Olympics 2022. Fuck China
@CuriousAboutTheWild China keeps their shit up, and their gonna look like the middle east 😂
@CuriousAboutTheWild "irrelevant countries" lol Yeah because just mine could take your's overnight 💀
Taiwan however has neither the quality and quantity to defend themself. All they can do is drag the world into a mutually assured destruction.
Update, people born after the 98th year of the republic (2009) would be subject to 1 year of mandatory military service.
Why does binka refer to himself in the third person?
Taiwanese don't like war. They like entertainment like party, food, drink, travel. However, unless they want to end up like Hong Kong, lost all the freedom and everything were administered by China, all Taiwanese must stand up and fight hard. Freedom is not free but require lots of sacrification.
You outside opoin is sure noticed
weak men create hard times...
It will turn out like m*cau in the short term. After that, impossible to tell.
First line of attack with be cyber, followed by financial and economy strangling and cutting off water and electricity supply.
Excellent detail info
These comments sound like a playground fight. Are all of them still in highschool? No citation, assumption built on top of assumption etc.
The main question is does china truly have the capability to achieve such a large amphibious invasion ... Kinda like a Operation sea lion situation with the Germans and English the Germans just didn't have the capability
Oh, the Germans certainly had the capability, you forgot though that Australia and NZ sent heaps of reinforcement to "Mother England", suffering huge casualties so that the English could hold their line.
@@crs9796 not so fast, by deploying man-portable anti air systems, truck anti air and well concealed stationary systems taiwan could stiffle chinas air superiority. Also keep in mind they have underground airstrips buried in the mountains. You also need to keep in mind the monsoon seasons, China can't afford to get bogged down in a quagmire or else the weather will cut off their forces for most of the year. Given the limited beach heads available for an amphibious assault making even getting a beach head a big if, not to mention the mountainous easy to defend terrain. Basically odds are unless taiwan surrender and don't have the will to fight China will be stuck in a quagmire with limited windows of time to keep their massive force supplied adequately.
@@joebloggs830 ??? The uk was there main trading partner and the uk had been help them alot
Taiwan should just allow private ownership of firearms. Occupying such a nation is very difficult
Military with actual experience vs civilians with firearms.. wow, what a recipe for disaster. For the civilians. Sure, more military will die but waaaay more civilians than military. It actually is a recipe for genocide. Why keep the civilians alive at all if all they are is trouble? You should not forget what china did at tinanmen square.
@@reinerheiner1148 I'm not saying it would be pretty, but it does tend to be effective in the long run. Look at Afghanistan.
Obtaining an illegal firearm is fairly easy in Taiwan btw, and not too expensive at all……
Oh God no, we need to contain the school shootings within the US, not spread it
@@HenryElfin Allowing concealed carry as a deterrent and/or stationing armed guards would significantly reduce the amount of school shootings in the US as well as stricter entrance checks, akin to airport security. Schools being gun free is what makes them so widely targetable by people. The only people who can stop illegals with guns without high risk of losing their own lives are other armed people.
There are several questions that need to be answered. First, how badly does China want Taiwan, because that's the primary factor. Second, how badly does Taiwan not want to be taken ? Everything follows those two questions. If Taiwan absolutely positively doesn't want to be taken, then China will probably not want to pay the price. All Taiwan needs to do is hold out for six months (or more) and China will regret ever trying to take it. But if Taiwan isn't "all out" in its defense then its over fairly quickly.
all i know is that they have better MREs
Slightly on the dry side , but unlikely to give you food poisoning like the Chinese ones.
Nice!
@@MsZsc A Steve fan I assume
Nice hiss
Think Ukraine have prove, the will of fight is equally if not more important than training
Ukraine has been preparing since 2014 training is the most important part besides actual suppljes
Ukraine has had extensive militisation and sweeping improvements to its military since 2014 including training by nato countries extending not just to its active military but to the training of large numbers of high readiness reservists. Add to this military experience gained in loss of the Crimea and the following endless skrimishs in the donbass region, and you have a realitively well trained and experienced fighting force going into the current conflict.
Huh? Proper training is the main reason why Ukraine's military has been performing well against Russia.
@@deathtdow Exactly. if Russia had launched the current invasion in 2014, Ukraine would have lost. Going in piecemeal trying to make a new Munich Agreement with the Minsk Accords was Russia's failure.
M60 was outdated even 30 years ago, not to mention M48 and M41. I am surprised they still didnt replaced it. Maybe relatively small nation just has not enough money for all aspects of its military.
They don't expect a tank battle. And indeed, how would China land a large tank army in the first wave?
Tanks are planned to be used for close fire support for the infantry. Prevent beachheads from expanding.
Should China be able to create a large enough beachhead to land some tank battalions the war would be already lost.
not really the new m60 upgrade makes it equal to the t90 in many ways. you do know the t90 is just an upgraded t72 a tank with a terrible real world reputation. The US fire control and range finder has always been better than russian and chinese tanks. in fact the m60 upgrade by Israel with a 120mm turrent makes the m60 equal to any other main battle tank out there. When all chinese tanks and even the m1a2 tank have weak spots everywhere it makes little difference. The ability of the m60 to fire first is the most important
why would they need to replace it when the m60 is already equal or better than most chinese tanks. china still uses copies of t54,t62 t 72 not exactly high tech at all , still very primitive
@@taiwanno1wan126 Lol wat? M60 has almost no armor, it cant take a punch at all. New turret with 120mm gun makes it self-propelled anti-tank gun, not a tank because tank should be able to withstand some damage.
@@taiwanno1wan126 What "most" tanks? Better than Type 59-of course, but not than Type 96 or 99.
Watching this in mid 24 shows how different the battlefield has become via drones.
He who controls Taiwan controls semi conductor chip supply.
Not true
sad, Taiwan is just a small section of chips which is a small part of semi-conductor. Taiwan is not irreplaceable
92% of cutting-edge (below 10 nm)chips are manufactured in Taiwan, 63% of all foundry chips are made in Taiwan from several chipmakers. So when Taiwan stops producing them, China will go to hell first, as SMIC produces mostly low-end 65 nm shown on their financial report.
No, Táiwān's chip production prowess relies on its human capital: the ability to get its most specialized engineers experienced and quickly redeployed to the fab station that needs the most attention as they start deviating from their subatomically tight tolerances -- this is why their biggest competitor is South Korea and not a more spread-out Mainland China, Japan, or US.
A PRC seizure would see the irreplaceable loss of these critical Taiwanese brains, not to mention those fab stations that were knocked completely out of alignment in the process. Even if China manages to redevelop a native production level equal to that of today's Táiwān, it would already have been surpassed by the nimbler South Korea, maybe Japan, and probably even Singapore.
@@genuinennessbefitting4734 BS, Korea and America also make chips under 10nm.
Chip production will be affected in short term but soon there will be other firms from other countries take Taiwans' place, Samsung for one, will be very happy to do that.
"hopefully may not be unavoidable" is weird English. It means hopefully will happen, which I bet you didn't intend. Double negative with flair? IDK.. my brain is having a hard time with it.
I don't think he made a mistake.
Avoidable = Might not happen.
Unavoidable = 100% will happen.
Not Unavoidable = Might not happen.
All the military hardware will not help them they need to have Stalingrad tactics cities and countryside full of lone Wolf snipers
It will be urban warfare ☠️
There was no drone in WW2. In modern days, if you lose air control, you get swarmed by drones.
Really good content as usual sir.
I don't think the presenter is fully considering the stopping power of about 100 miles of water.
Probably Taiwan's greatest asset since except for a month in Spring and Autumn, the waters are too choppy for an invasion fleet.
Wait, _"hopefully may not be avoidable"?_
You... What???
You hope it's NOT avoidable?
I'm going to assume that was lost in translation
No. There needs to be more conflicts to analyze afterwards to have fresh content. You can't generate ad revenue without breaking a few eggs.
"hopefully may not be UNavoidable"
No we want the world war trilogy completed
I like this variation of the Binkov format. The usual format: "Malaysia attacks Singapore, but nobody else gets involved - and no nukes" is a bit of artificial. Obviously other people would get involved, and a realistic scenario would be heavily about who they are and what they could do.
But of course Binkov is still worth watching because of his comparison of the forces two potential belligerents have under their own direct control. In this format that's exactly what you are promised and get.
Okay but Taiwan should rent out some space on some USAF bases I mean we're just letting them use our real estate it would be suicide for china to go for it
American is weak AF. Got a base in Afghanistan ended up running
16:08 Named a plane F-CK-1 lol
the modern soldier, Taiwanese of Chinese is not the same zealot of the Chinese civl war, they both have different priorities in life from those 75 years ago. I believe that even if China will somehow manage to conquer Taiwain, they will suffer so many casualties that it will shake the very foundation of Chinese society, with all the might of the aparatus of the Chinese government to supress dissent- the cries of thousands of widowers and mothers will not be silenced.
there still is a social contract between the Chinese government and it's people, and the last thing the Chinese people want is to be return in coffins from a terrible war, and not even the idealized reunification of Taiwan will make up for how many losses such a war will create. it will simply not be worth it to lose so many sailors, soldiers and marines and than be isolated from the world even further just to take over Taiwan.
I think China won't genuinely risk it, they gamble on the long run game, and the military threats today are simply a show of force for the Americans, and the rest of the world. I'm not sure China will be able to reunify with Taiwain "peacefully" either, the world will slowly but surely manage to recognize Taiwan and China will find out that it won't be able to contain this sentiment internationally. there won't be a grand war, there won't be reunification, I expect the CCP to abandon reunification and focus inward. the old guard of the CCP, the "Wolf Warriors" are the ones who push for reunification the most, but I'm pretty sure the more pragmatic leaders in the CCP see it as a lost cause better left for the pages of history.
I love your comment. I hope it comes out this way.
That's why the whole defense relies heavily on not letting PLA to land on the Taiwan coastal area.
Truism: the best defence is a potent offence.
You can defend all you like, but the best way to handle China is to inflict pain.
Invasion of China or victory is out of the question for Taiwan, so the goal must be to make any attack on Tawain by the CCP a very painful exercise.
So, where is China vulnerable? What are the pressure points?
Shipping. Infrastructure (power stations, fuel).
Also: domestic politics. The CCP is always fearing for its own safety, and greatly fears any military loss for the impact it will have internally.
@Drew Peacock The problem is that it would greatly harm Australia. Unfortunately, Australia is highly reliant on China for both resources exports, and imports, which is why China's bullying and economic warfare is so dangerous.
taiwan would win easy, when china tries that landing and 70 percent of its forces are dead on the first day at what point do you think the generals will just give up. On top of that you have some attacks from outside countries on the china mainland and huge sanctions. that 70 percent figure only gets bigger with more reinforcements. The only way china can win is land 1 million plus in one hit and thats impossible. All those so called fishing boats will be wiped out very quickly. you underestimate what a home advantage can do. The US had a similiar fight once in the 70s i think with Cebu, if the enermy knows your coming the beach invasion just doesnt work
@Drew Peacock Fortunately, the Australian government has seen the light, and has been trying to decouple for the last few years. There are some recalcitrants (e.g. the Victorian Labor government, which still wants a Belt and Road deal with China), and business voices who'd rather see us appease China, but most Australians seem to understand that China is not a friend, but an aggressor.
Even New Zealand is finally changing its fence-sitting routine.
Mostly, this all comes down to how badly Xi and is minions have handled relations.
They sought to kill the chicken (Australia) to scare the monkeys, but it hasn't worked.
@Drew Peacock Yes, really.
Exports only tell one part of the story.
There's gross sales of ore to China, but then there's Australia's defence posture and relationships with neighbours.
Look at the re-emergence of the QUAD as an alliance against China. The CCP is super-pissed about it.
And then improving ties with South Korea.
And getting (maybe, one day) nuclear subs.
And the crackdown on CCP influencers in Australia.
@Drew Peacock Sorry, I'm not interested in dumbing down the conversation to make it easier for you to understand.
You'll have to do your own thinking.
A more important question “ is China strong enough to weather the economic consequences of invading Taiwan “ ? My thought is NO !
Hahhahah , if that so was the case (which it isnt) china would have never provoked half the world at this point , idk china knows something we dont , maybe china hosts a monopoly due to its huge size of market or maybe other factors, but there is definitely something ,otherwise they wouldnt have provoked india and us the 2 worlds largest market
@@t69shabir20 Belt and road initiative.. look it up. China has huge plans.
@@t69shabir20 "idk china knows something we dont"
Sometimes leaders and bureaucrats really are just that incompetent. China having a coal shortage for insulting Australia is proof that the CCP isn't playing 4D-chess.
Once the BRI really takes off, I think they could weather the storm...perhaps growth would take a beating in the short-term but it would still be sufficient enough.
@@MK_ULTRA420 that's not the main reason why there was a power outage because Australian coal wasn't taken off yet. The power companies in the northern provinces decided to "idle" their power generation for factories because the global energy prices were so high at the time and they didn't want to operate at a loss. Now they went on a transition to more natural gas, as well as coal from the US, rather than Australia, essentially making allies eat each other's lunches
One aspect I didn’t hear you discuss was the terrain, in particular the beaches. An article I read some years ago claimed that Taiwan’s beaches are difficult to invade. The article said that the Taiwanese shore is covered by long mudflats, that are very difficult for a landing craft to cross, forcing soldiers to wade ashore very slowly across mudflats hundreds of yards deep. This gives shore defenses a big opportunity to destroy them.
I don’t know if there are technological solutions to this problem (maybe hovercraft?). I would be interested to hear a discussion of this aspect.
This isn't WW2. Modern militaries won't attempt a landing until they have complete fire superiority over the landing zone. Even in WW2, brutal amphibious landings under fire from the defenders only happened because something had gone very, very wrong. Omaha beach was the result of a cascade of errors and bad weather leaving the landing divisions without their fire support - the original plan was that all of those bunkers and gun emplacements along the cliffs would've been turned into craters by the time the first landing boat got to the beach.
@@dark7element The PRC doesn't have the luxury of time. Taiwan has truck-mounted missiles that can hit moving ships anywhere from Hong Kong to Shanghai. Those missiles will shut down China's ability to import oil. No one is going to sail a tanker through an active war zone, especially not when anyone is actively targeting commercial tankers. China's strategic oil reserve is three weeks worth. To win, China needs to have enough boots on the ground across the entire island to convince risk-averse shipping companies and their insurance-issuing backers that it is completely safe before that oil runs out.
@@yopyop3241 China is still world’s 7th largest oil producer. How many days can Taiwan survive without oil import?
@@jntiger1981 Wrong question. Need to look at the overall picture.
Taiwan: Two months of a collapsed economy and half normal caloric intake to defeat the PRC and earn universal international recognition of Taiwanese sovereignty. In the aftermath, the US, Japan, the EU, etc. provide huge support with rebuilding.
PRC: One month of a collapsed economy and half normal caloric intake to end up losing to Taiwan. In the aftermath, the US, Japan, the EU, etc. place crippling sanctions on the PRC for the next several decades.
@@yopyop3241 China is a poor communist country so people has nothing to lose. They survived the 10 -year culture revolution, 3-year great famine caused by the Great Leap Forward. Shortages caused by a few month of war against Taiwan cannot get worse than that.
Taiwan, on the other hand, is a prosperous market economy with people spoiled and no past experience of dealing famine. Remember Taiwanese is people who were out on street protesting the government merely for a day or two blackout.
In a vacuum? No. But Taiwan has a lot of allies in the area
Watched your whole vid, but it was all equipment related, you did not mention anything about Taiwan insurgent groups that might be created behind enemy lines when China invaded by land. They should take a leaf from the Middle East and Afghanistan, IEDs, Snipers, Ambushes, booby traps in buildings, use the terrain ( Forests, Mountains)!!!
He covered those before. Plus, if it comes to that, techniquely China would have successfully invaded.
then you realise Afghan and Iraqi insurgents were dying at 10-20 times the rate of coalition troops.
Mr Binkov, my favourite internet puppet, question for you: why do you use imperial instead of metric for distances? Are the majority of your viewers in the US?
Freedom units are superior.
Hes preparing for the inevitable American Empire. You will be an anglo democracy, willingly or not!
@@florianthomas7852 Correct. So stop measuring distances in the length of a king's foot.
@@AndrewBlucher The foot and inch are handy, pretty much everything else is easier in metric
@Pupil0fGod I smiled at "handy" :-)
Yes, it's easier to say an inch than two point five centimetres!
And miles and leagues are part of legacy literature.
On the other hand people use imperial units and derivatives in ridiculous ways, such as high rocket thrust and large amounts of water.
Imagine the chip shortage if China invades
@B J yeah I'm not talking exclusively about military chips.
A weak point must be lack of modern submarines, 10 of those would make a bit differance
China has to balance its territorial and military ambitions against the economic sanctions it would inevitably receive from its wealthy trading partners. Russia is facing the same dilemma with its ambitions in Ukraine. It is obvious that China could successfully invade Taiwan (or any of its neighbours), but at what economic cost in future trade.
China is very self-sufficient and in control of world supply chain. It is YOU, not Chinese, should worry about the economic cost of a war with China.
@@aburetik4866 really, you think china can keep its economy running when the world stops buying their crap? I dont think so, sounds more like you're a bot.
@@RYTG You can't stop buying from China, bcz you don't have a choice. Only China has the capacity to supply the whole world. Without China, your money will be worth less than toilet paper and many of u will have to clean *ss by hand.
@@aburetik4866 what china sells is mostly copied junk anyway :p you should try not to get angry so easily over youtubecomments, have a good one
@@RYTG Whatever you call it, you are buying it and using it all the time. Your ppl's action speaks louder than your words. And you have no choice but pay money to the Chinese everday.
It's you that is angry, bcz you hate it but can do nothing about it. 😂
As Indonesian, I recognize taiwan as a Nation
What benefit would any Asian country get by supporting Taiwanese independence? Taiwanese seeking independence would result in a war between Taiwan, China, and seems like the US and all of its Allies as well. Would Asian counties enjoy the radiation clouds possibly flying into your own country? And would they enjoy losing a major economic trade partner as well, that is if they survive the nuclear fallout? Asian people need to think things through.
@@npc2480 maybe we will rethink when Chna stopped picking fight with every country it borders
@@MrRazer94 the only ones picking fights are all the western countries against one country and that is China but somehow China is the aggressor.
@@npc2480 china claims senkaku islands, claims bhutan, have border disputes with India, have border disputes with at least 5 SEA countries over south china seas. How are they "western"?
sayang sekali anda hanya warga biasa yasallam
The number of Chinese troops is irrelevant if they can't get them across an ocean. I'd imagine most of the Taiwan troops would hide in bunkers while the bombs drop, then pop up once the Chinese storm the beaches. There would probably be mines and all sorts of traps setup as well. It would be a suicide mission for most of the Chinese infantry. They will also have to deal with US navy and air force, along with Japan, Australia etc. And assuming they can overcome all of that, i highly doubt the Taiwanese people will lay down and accept Chinese rule.
You think this is WW2?
@@brodiethebuilder8496 honestly it's pretty much guaranteed that if China invaded Taiwan the USA will join the war on Taiwan's side this has been basically guaranteed so China won't just be fighting the small island but the whole USA and most of NATO
@@michaelf.2449 .
@@brodiethebuilder8496 the Russians r getting stomp for such big military
The US won't fight for Taiwan. Sleepy Joe will back down when the Communists attack.
i dont get why they have so few subs, it would be very useful in a war!
Capable subs are not easy to build. Those countries that could supply the need do not want the antagonize the CCP. They won't sell to Taiwan. The US only builds nuclear.
@@mmiller4569 Actually..USA sees Taiwan as a lost cause. That's why it's only selling Taiwan outdated junk.
Yes, they would be useful, and that is exactly why China's been putting pressure on any country that could sell Taiwan subs.
The recent development is that Taiwan is building its own subs with helps from other countries, with Taiwanese officials claiming the construction's going well.
@@awesomechen US only has nuke subs which Taiwan can't buy and Taiwan also does not have enough money yo buy anything too good like F35
@@scorpiontdalpha9799 oh lordy, you know a f35 costs less than f16v(aka garbage that USA sells to Taiwan), right? Doing a little googling and stop embarrassing yourself
The real war is in the comments section