2025 January MDAS General Meeting Aliens and the Drake Equation Speaker: Jeff Adkins

An interactive exploration of the famous equation used to estimate the number of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, highlighting the uncertainties and fun possibilities of each variable, from the "Goldilocks Zone" to the potential for self-destructive alien species, all while pondering the implications of finding a cosmic neighbor.
N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L
N, the number of civilizations currently transmitting signals, depends on seven factors:
R* is the yearly formation rate of stars hospitable to planets where life could develop.
fp is the fraction of those stars with planets.
ne is the number of planets per solar system with conditions suitable for life.
fl is the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually appears.
fi is the fraction of planets with life on which intelligent life emerges.
fc is the fraction of planets with intelligent life that develops technologies that we could detect.
L is the average length of time in years that civilizations produce such signs.
Jeff Adkins is a high school and community college astronomy teacher from Antioch. He has been teaching astronomy for about 37 years, 26 years at Deer Valley HS in Antioch, and 18 years at Los Medanos College. He is the author of his own high school astronomy book called Conceptual Astronomy, and the author of various other works including a novel, a play, and several articles. He is a former NASA Education Ambassador and is currently the Lead Teacher for ACE Academy at Deer Valley High, and long time member of MDAS. He was the recipient of the Joe Disch award in 2022 and he remembers arguing with Joe (our resident “Big Bang Basher”) just like many of you. He joined MDAS because of a public service ad on cable television in the 1990s.