It is only awesome if it inspires us to get involved. Simon's not saying Biden has it in the bag. He says the race is essentially tied - so what are we going to do to tip it towards Biden? Signing up to write letters with Vote Forward is one place to start.
In Florida 2022, due to bad polls and inept, defeatist Dem campaigning, only HALF of registered Dems bothered to vote, thus giving MAGA/GOP the U.S. House and giving Rubio another 6 years in the Senate. And, oh yeah, fascist Desanctimonious. We Dems should OWN diverse Florida's 30 electoral votes.
As a floridian, I was sick about how DNC let that wonderful woman just blow in the wind. She was a main person in the impeachment, very high profile. Hated it so much I signed Marijuana petition and abortion rights petition @ walgreens, now? They are both on our ballot. I helped do that, if you think you're vote doesn't count? I just wish both rubio forked tongued and skelator and desatan were on this years ballot together. I am so angry how magats have followed that heavyweight turd down here. I grew up here i want them to move.
If u look at the underlying numbers, while they are tied in the top numbers, it shows, that Biden has lost 15-20% of his black and latino support. Yet theyre still tied. Meaning that Biden has gotten a lot of that white/suburban support, who are repelled at the thought of another Trump term. Those white suburbanites arent going back to Trump. Meaning Biden doesnt need to win back all of the black and latino support, hes lost, if he gets just 5% back, its a blowout victory. And he will likely get most, if not all, of it back. Every1 still needs to do the work tho!
True, but if you’re a columnist or commentator, it’s *not* OK not to speculate or talk about who is going to win, or what so and so needs to do to win….
@@MattLewisWhy is it NOT ok? Every single columnist weighs in to the point at which it’s all just noise. IMO the over analyzing of these numbers only motivates the opposition to prove wrong the analysis. In other words, if every single columnist laid off and stopped speculating, I think the result would shake out better but even still NOBODY KNOWS we never do. If you HAVE to commentate on the polls, and I’m no expert but I’d say just examine how the polls have changed over the last year. Look at the trends. These are different samples every time right so do some kind of aggregate research over the last year and add it all up and that probably tells a compelling story. What gets me is Hilary lead all the way in 2016, I didn’t see so much poll obsession then and she lost so I guess the thinking is to overdo the poll speculation, but we now know that those polls were off because the maga people don’t talk to pollsters AT ALL. So perhaps you should consider that the polling is only reflective of people who answer and then factor in an extra wave of maga to push those numbers up 5 points or so.
I am a centrist Democrat. I feel Joe Biden has been a good president. I will never vote for Trump. President Biden has had almost 4 years to make Americans believe he has had a successful presidency and has not done so. He should bow out gracefully along with the Vice President. At the Democratic convention Gavin Newsom should be nominated with Pete Buttegieg as running mate. They should run on: 1. Big middle class tax cut 2. Tariffs on China 3. Re-shoring American Manufacturing 4. Save Social Security 5. Codify Roe 6. College Tuition tax credits Run against: 1. High taxes on middle class 2. High Inflation 3. High Gas prices 4. High College tuition 5. Donald Trump is a freaking crook. Period. America was built
Yea,You Stick with Fox and Newsmax where you can be more at home with those 'Alternative Facts ' Hmm How much did fox shell out for knowingly lying to their Viewers? Oh Well!😊@torchedearth8547
Voters had a sense that a Clinton victory was inevitable and weren't motivated to vote. That lack of enthusiasm is why she lost, not Comey. Trump also tapped into a set of voters who had never considered offering their input.
Agree and she also took the states that were in the bag ?? for granted and didn’t campaign as hard there as she should every vote counted then and every vote counts now
And now we have seen what kind of input that set of voters contributes. The sooner they go back to their Ozark porches, the better. (I have had connections to the Ozarks, so that is not an uninformed cheap shot - it IS an informed cheap shot.)
That's fair....My perspective which I acknowledge isn't everyone's is I don't need to like him... I just need him to get most of his job right...which makes him by far the better option
That’s the problem, and how we ended up with pigpen instead of Hillary. Vote the qualifications Biden has been a public servant his entire adult life, and takes it seriously. Biden is pliable, and will listen and make changes when challenged. Trump is for himself and will let his criminal buddies run over us.
Yeah, that’s all the libs have! Obviously can’t talk about their accomplishments. There are none! So it’s “Orange Man bad!” Hate to tell you this, but no one is buying that nonsense any more!
When was the last time a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate won Nevada by 13 points? Of course that's not accurate. It is laughably inaccurate.
@@jamestepera3356 Actually there were two polls done in each swing state (same pollster) one with likely voters and one with registered voters. That large number is registered voters and the number with likely voters was much smaller. Here's the thing the headlines were written to the larger number while the likely voters number which was smaller (but is considered a more accurate measure) was ignored.
@@basketballsteve54 yes that was discussed in the interview. However, Matts guest is missing a more obvious point (which is curious for a supposed math guy).... if a repuable pollster is saying Biden is down 13, and the Realclearpolitics aggregate says he's down in excess of 5, then the takeaway isnt "there's stress in the polls" so throw them all out. Rather it should be " Wow, every poll has us down at least 5. We're losing right now!"
@jamestepera3356 My overall point is there is fundamental dishonesty in the polls because they are used as the basis for clicks. I think in the 43 (or maybe now it's 44) special elections and ballot measures since the 2022 midterms, democrats consistently, in virtually every one of those real votes that count, are overperforming both the polls and the previous (22) election results in districts by significant results. They have clean swept measures that involve women's reproductive rights even in very red states and there are 10 more such state measures on the ballot for the 24 cycle. So there is lots of other data that has the arrows pointing in the direction of democrats.
There is no one smarter than Simon Rosenberg about polls, data, trends and likelihoods when it comes to election outcomes. He is the gold standard for understanding what’s really happening in the electoral landscape across the country.
Thanks for this discussion. Learned a lot. Which ever way the election goes it’s nice to hear calm and rational analysis instead of profit driven doom and gloom.
Additionally, was wondering if you could do an episode about how Ai might impact the election and jobs this year or after. So far many artist and tech workers have been impacted especially on the west coast. There’s an artist named Karla Ortiz who’s suing tech for illegal use of her work to train Ai. Hoping either candidate will address this without the standard retaining answer. Not everyone can be a coder or prompter. Thanks again for your time and videos. Will definitely subscribe!
I wonder if this math person takes into acct the polls consistently underrepresented Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 and 2020. He said it himself...if he projects that Biden is losing then volunteers become harder to motivate and money dries up..... He knows Trump is winning.
The open border will hurt Biden. This late in the game he's damned if he does or doesnt close the border. The issues that these campaign strategists DON'T talk about is what you need to worry about.
The border isn't open. That is the first lie you have to acknowledge. Second, many regions of the US are desperate for more migrant labor. The Republicans lie about the entire situation.
Do these idiots not realize that the so called partisan border bill allows 8000 illegals a day!!! That's why the intelligent Republicans voted NAY!!!!!
@@Sharonjones1981-yxtrue. But the voters will blame Biden. Everyone knows illegal immigration slowed during the Trump years because he didn't mess around. He enforced existing legislation....didnt need new laws. Biden ignored it for 3+ years and its too late to ask for forgiveness
Media is not paying adequate attention to Trump's accelerating senile dementia. That's no joke and would be tragic except for the harm he's done to the country.
Biden is not communicating well. His message is not resonating because he is a poor communicator which has only gotten worse and my get worse as campaigning and governing ramps up. He comes across as old without a fight. His voice is monotone His gaffes during the NAACP speech saying he was VP during the pandemic does not help He needs several effective communicators in key states. Polls should not be close!!
I disagree. Biden wrangled R’s at both SOTU. He did it over border bill. He did it with debate rules. If you ACTUALLY watch Biden’s speeches ( yes he stutters from his youth) vs. tRumps side snake oil selling slurring ramblings of speeches. There is no contest! Hard working Statesman vs Cringy disastrous con-man literally taking away freedoms! (And if you are a gun lover, tfg will certainly take those away to protect his reign at some point in the fascist future if we allow that path by returning him in Jan) I’d ask if you are so concerned about Biden’s messaging, how are YOU helping Biden win in your circles? Unless you don’t want him to win??!! Everyone needs to decide R’s included, do you want to be part of the solution (Cheney Kinsinger Geoff Duncan Bulwark) or do you want to complain? Will you feel good about yourself on Nov 6, if a fascist gets elected, by how much you complained? Check out rvat .org and YT and see other R’s bailing on tRump and speaking their minds. Share it liberally! Pun totally intended! Volunteer Donate Register Vote Blue☮️
So you want a late-night TV comedian? I think Biden has plenty of fight. Best Pres since Franklin Roosevelt, and facing similarly dangerous threats to the country.
Biden's very infrequent "gaffes" consist of getting a single word wrong. Trump's constant incoherent, irrelevant "Hannibal Lecter" rants show his deep, irreversible, later-stage senile dementia.
Yesterday I was at my optometrist's office and she, point blank, said that trump will win the election. All the news media with pieces that state how far ahead trump is against Biden and how this is influencing everyone to feel discouraged and even giving up. I thought: "maybe I shouldn't even give money to the Biden campaign." so this points out Simon's argument about the influence this negative polling reporting.
True , but that is what is so disturbing . Media outlets that typically support Biden are reporting dismal results . I’m concerned they are not accurate, but for entirely different reasons historically Trump has Greatly overperformed his polling numbers on election day
@@hgservices5572 lol No. The NYT hates Biden. The fact is that Trump has never won the popular vote. All of these polls showing he will should be tossed out for that alone.
Great messaging. Great communicator. Totally full of it lol. Your facial expressions mirrored my thoughts while listening to him talk. Thanks for the great interview!
How do you determine that? There are polls that show trump way ahead and some show Bidden way ahead and some show them tied. But of course let's stick to the hand wringing
I genuinely don’t understand how Matt can so clearly see the dire situation we’re in, yet is going to throw his vote away to some write-in or third party candidate
Farms are being closed. Chicken. Farms.burn. and now wanting ranches. Do you remember when the gov Chickens were on strike and not laying eggs. Farm chickens came to the rescue because they were laying eggs.
🤔 Putin and Russia contributed very little and effect d the 2016 minimally according to investigators . Many nations every election cycle try to influence IS elections, not just Russia . Hillary was a terrible candidate that’s why she lost . Mueller investigation proved no evidence of russian collusion and subsequent investigations found it to be fabrications from the opposition party to hinder Trumps presidency.
Furthermore , Trump underperforms his polling ? This is generally not true , just look at the polling data by state on the 2020 election and you will see that Trump greatly outperformed those polls losing by a very narrow Margin to win the electoral college. State rule changes, mass mail in ballots and dark money ( Zuck bucks / see ballot box placement in Wisconsin etc ) and media blackouts of the Hunter Biden laptop ( falsely claimed to be Russian disinformation ) , damning claims in bidens daughters diary ( also now proven to be true ) and relentless negative media coverage contributed to Biden winning the electoral college in 2020 in the early hours of the next morning . Trump received the most votes for a sitting president in history with over 75,000,000 votes. Biden “received” the most votes in history period with mass mail in ballots with over 81,000,000
Simon, can you please explain how national polling matters? In the context of EC inanity, I find it hard to appreciate how anything but the swing states are worthy of emphhasis.
Yours is not a dumb comment. No state outside of a 4% difference in 2020 is going to flip. Biden will win ALL the swing states, plus FL and NC. And, perhaps, TX. WOMEN ARE TOTALLY PISSED OFF. And they have an 11:10 ratio in voters. The RNC is broke. Trump has no ground game. Those CNN numbers - what did they do, find the most MAGA sampling possible? Who needds Rasmussen polling, when CNN is out there?
I look at the numbers and try to get a sense of them with my engineering mind. Hillary's 3 million popular vote win lost the Electoral College. Biden got a 7 million win, and he won the Electoral College. Since all but 5 or 7 states are solid for one side or the other, the popular vote IN the Swing states combined means more than overall. Hillary won California by 2 million and only won the rest of the country by 1 million. Her 2 million overvotes in CA didn't help her around the country. That is too close. Biden won CA by 5 million and the rest of the country by 3 million. Better. But those 5 million overvotes in CA were useless votes. No matter what NYT is saying, Biden is going to win the popular vote nationally by at least 10 million, but I am figuring on 15 million, in good part because of the abortion issue. The polls are not allowing anything for that. That issue will tilt all the close states (including NC and FL) toward Biden. Every election is different, but popular vote nationally does indicate the general energy in the country. It is not going to swing Kansas or Rhode Island to flip. But in the 2% states it WILL matter. I figure a 6% swing. Biden won by 4.65% nationally and he got 306 EVs. If abortion swings millions of pissed off women, it is in the bag. And I think it will and Biden will get more EVs this time.
Go look at Ruy Teixeira. He carefully unwinds new data points representing new topological voter boundaries and realignment. Working class voters are now Republicans and the educational and economic elite including the top 500k and over voter category are democrats. Working class and working poor against the bourgeoisie. Check it out. I'm an urban nurse and work with the homeless. Yes, Trump in the bronx tomorrow.
I'm in urban Minneapolis as a nurse with homeless. I spent my life as an activist and last year I left democrats. Urban MAGA is a grassroots coalition of working class voters. The marriage of corporatism and big government does not work for me. Billionaire lobbyists are in my way of bringing reasonably priced healthcare anyone can afford out of an average paycheck. Republicans have been successful in their ground campaign in teaching urban independent black media about the foundational Republican party. Urban Minneapolis nurse activist for Trump 2024. Topological voter boundaries have realigned. Wake up.
Joyce, I have Biden getting 55-58% in November, winning FL and NC and MAYBE even TX, plus holding all the swing states. Dems get the House and Senate, too. Abortion is not being allowed for in these.
I needed this regular dose of hopium, awesome stuff!
Thanks. Simon always delivers!
Copium
It is only awesome if it inspires us to get involved. Simon's not saying Biden has it in the bag. He says the race is essentially tied - so what are we going to do to tip it towards Biden? Signing up to write letters with Vote Forward is one place to start.
@MattLewis thanks I enjoyed this and I am not on the left per say lol
In Florida 2022, due to bad polls and inept, defeatist Dem campaigning, only HALF of registered Dems bothered to vote, thus giving MAGA/GOP the U.S. House and giving Rubio another 6 years in the Senate. And, oh yeah, fascist Desanctimonious. We Dems should OWN diverse Florida's 30 electoral votes.
You will. Yeah, we came close in 2020 - only 3.6% down - and now abortion and Trump's failings will give FL to Biden. And Scott is going down, too.
As a floridian, I was sick about how DNC let that wonderful woman just blow in the wind. She was a main person in the impeachment, very high profile. Hated it so much I signed Marijuana petition and abortion rights petition @ walgreens, now? They are both on our ballot. I helped do that, if you think you're vote doesn't count? I just wish both rubio forked tongued and skelator and desatan were on this years ballot together. I am so angry how magats have followed that heavyweight turd down here. I grew up here i want them to move.
and yet its your socialist democRATic party that follows the fascist agenda....🤔
I guess Biden being down in every poll in over a year (some as much as 10pts) doesn't mean anything...
@@jamestepera3356 dont you worry. Biden will still get the illegal alien vote and the dead in the cemetery voting for him
If the polls state that Biden and Trump are tied, Biden is leading by 5 points...🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
If u look at the underlying numbers, while they are tied in the top numbers, it shows, that Biden has lost 15-20% of his black and latino support. Yet theyre still tied. Meaning that Biden has gotten a lot of that white/suburban support, who are repelled at the thought of another Trump term. Those white suburbanites arent going back to Trump. Meaning Biden doesnt need to win back all of the black and latino support, hes lost, if he gets just 5% back, its a blowout victory. And he will likely get most, if not all, of it back.
Every1 still needs to do the work tho!
You’re RIGHT!!!🇺🇸
I hope you’re right about that.
AMEN!!🇺🇸🙏
It's okay to not know the results of an election 5 months beforehand.
True, but if you’re a columnist or commentator, it’s *not* OK not to speculate or talk about who is going to win, or what so and so needs to do to win….
@@MattLewisWhy is it NOT ok? Every single columnist weighs in to the point at which it’s all just noise. IMO the over analyzing of these numbers only motivates the opposition to prove wrong the analysis. In other words, if every single columnist laid off and stopped speculating, I think the result would shake out better but even still NOBODY KNOWS we never do. If you HAVE to commentate on the polls, and I’m no expert but I’d say just examine how the polls have changed over the last year. Look at the trends. These are different samples every time right so do some kind of aggregate research over the last year and add it all up and that probably tells a compelling story. What gets me is Hilary lead all the way in 2016, I didn’t see so much poll obsession then and she lost so I guess the thinking is to overdo the poll speculation, but we now know that those polls were off because the maga people don’t talk to pollsters AT ALL. So perhaps you should consider that the polling is only reflective of people who answer and then factor in an extra wave of maga to push those numbers up 5 points or so.
Thank you Simon.
It's great to hear some Hopium every day to dispel these jackass polls and show some optimism within the MAGA insanity.
My poll shows Biden winning with 58% - even with RFK Jr getting votes.
WOMEN WILL ROCK🎶💙WAVE 2024 ELECTION 💙🇺🇸✌️❣️
The reason our blood pressures are so high is because so much is at stake.
I Seriously, DOUBT IT!!!!!!!!!!!! People Are Playing Games, With The Polls!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Watch the loudest voice in the room and how Fox controls the narrative if you think that
Thats why I decided today never to watch CNN. Their polling is pathetic. Thats why MAGA thinks Democrats cheat because of their poor polling. 😢😢😢
A really tacky outfit! Cannot stand CNN
Don't be as ridiculous on the left as MAGA is on the right..
I am a centrist Democrat.
I feel Joe Biden has been a good president.
I will never vote for Trump.
President Biden has had almost 4 years to make Americans believe he has had a successful presidency and has not done so.
He should bow out gracefully along with the Vice President.
At the Democratic convention Gavin Newsom should be nominated with Pete Buttegieg as running mate.
They should run on:
1. Big middle class tax cut
2. Tariffs on China
3. Re-shoring American Manufacturing
4. Save Social Security
5. Codify Roe
6. College Tuition tax credits
Run against:
1. High taxes on middle class
2. High Inflation
3. High Gas prices
4. High College tuition
5. Donald Trump is a freaking crook.
Period.
America was built
Yea,You Stick with Fox and Newsmax where you can be more at home with those 'Alternative Facts ' Hmm How much did fox shell out for knowingly lying to their Viewers? Oh Well!😊@torchedearth8547
This guy cited the Harvard poll as being legit ….. latest one out has Trump up massive 😐
I could listen to Simon 24/7 until the election.
Voters had a sense that a Clinton victory was inevitable and weren't motivated to vote. That lack of enthusiasm is why she lost, not Comey. Trump also tapped into a set of voters who had never considered offering their input.
Agree and she also took the states that were in the bag ?? for granted and didn’t campaign as hard there as she should every vote counted then and every vote counts now
And now we have seen what kind of input that set of voters contributes. The sooner they go back to their Ozark porches, the better. (I have had connections to the Ozarks, so that is not an uninformed cheap shot - it IS an informed cheap shot.)
@@Dublinblade1 And she paid Debbie Dingell no attention when the congresswoman BEGGED her to come to Michigan to campaign.
@@stevenmaginnis1965
Exactly , the rust belt if campaigned in would have won it for her
Taking the voters for granted instead of doing the hard yards
Plus it's very hard to win three straight presidential elections, it's only been done once in 80 yrs,
Always love hearing from Simon. I am never bored. Democrats Abroad volunteer here heading off to make calls in the UK. I am getting a good response
It seems most people don’t even like Biden where I live
That's fair....My perspective which I acknowledge isn't everyone's is I don't need to like him...
I just need him to get most of his job right...which makes him by far the better option
That’s the problem, and how we ended up with pigpen instead of Hillary. Vote the qualifications Biden has been a public servant his entire adult life, and takes it seriously. Biden is pliable, and will listen and make changes when challenged. Trump is for himself and will let his criminal buddies run over us.
Ignore the polls. Work like you're15 pts behind. Talk about abortion, abortion, competence, abortion, democracy, abortion...
Yeah, that’s all the libs have! Obviously can’t talk about their accomplishments. There are none! So it’s “Orange Man bad!”
Hate to tell you this, but no one is buying that nonsense any more!
When was the last time a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate won Nevada by 13 points? Of course that's not accurate. It is laughably inaccurate.
Of course it is....but he's likely down 5 or 6....which lines up with other polls.
@@jamestepera3356 Actually there were two polls done in each swing state (same pollster) one with likely voters and one with registered voters. That large number is registered voters and the number with likely voters was much smaller. Here's the thing the headlines were written to the larger number while the likely voters number which was smaller (but is considered a more accurate measure) was ignored.
@@basketballsteve54 yes that was discussed in the interview. However, Matts guest is missing a more obvious point (which is curious for a supposed math guy).... if a repuable pollster is saying Biden is down 13, and the Realclearpolitics aggregate says he's down in excess of 5, then the takeaway isnt "there's stress in the polls" so throw them all out. Rather it should be " Wow, every poll has us down at least 5. We're losing right now!"
@jamestepera3356 My overall point is there is fundamental dishonesty in the polls because they are used as the basis for clicks.
I think in the 43 (or maybe now it's 44) special elections and ballot measures since the 2022 midterms, democrats consistently, in virtually every one of those real votes that count, are overperforming both the polls and the previous (22) election results in districts by significant results. They have clean swept measures that involve women's reproductive rights even in very red states and there are 10 more such state measures on the ballot for the 24 cycle. So there is lots of other data that has the arrows pointing in the direction of democrats.
There is no one smarter than Simon Rosenberg about polls, data, trends and likelihoods when it comes to election outcomes. He is the gold standard for understanding what’s really happening in the electoral landscape across the country.
I wouldn’t trust CNN to poll my own family what sounds good for dinner.
Joe Biden!😁
Thanks for this discussion. Learned a lot. Which ever way the election goes it’s nice to hear calm and rational analysis instead of profit driven doom and gloom.
Additionally, was wondering if you could do an episode about how Ai might impact the election and jobs this year or after. So far many artist and tech workers have been impacted especially on the west coast. There’s an artist named Karla Ortiz who’s suing tech for illegal use of her work to train Ai. Hoping either candidate will address this without the standard retaining answer. Not everyone can be a coder or prompter. Thanks again for your time and videos. Will definitely subscribe!
Matt, thank you so much for your work!
Thanks!
Smart guy.
Well done, Simon!!!!
Always enjoy your content, Matt.
Thanks, Robert!
Rosenberg is pretty much the best in the business on polling and statistics. 🤷♂️👏
Matt is a good listener.
I’m a math person and i love this interview. It’s so frustrating when non math people don’t understand how polling works.
I wonder if this math person takes into acct the polls consistently underrepresented Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 and 2020. He said it himself...if he projects that Biden is losing then volunteers become harder to motivate and money dries up.....
He knows Trump is winning.
Sorry Simon, we elected Biden to take care of Covid AND remove the threat of Trump and MAGA.
The open border will hurt Biden. This late in the game he's damned if he does or doesnt close the border. The issues that these campaign strategists DON'T talk about is what you need to worry about.
Republican’s stopped the border bill
The border isn't open. That is the first lie you have to acknowledge. Second, many regions of the US are desperate for more migrant labor. The Republicans lie about the entire situation.
Do these idiots not realize that the so called partisan border bill allows 8000 illegals a day!!! That's why the intelligent Republicans voted NAY!!!!!
@@Sharonjones1981-yxtrue. But the voters will blame Biden. Everyone knows illegal immigration slowed during the Trump years because he didn't mess around. He enforced existing legislation....didnt need new laws. Biden ignored it for 3+ years and its too late to ask for forgiveness
There's no "open border"
Media is not paying adequate attention to Trump's accelerating senile dementia. That's no joke and would be tragic except for the harm he's done to the country.
so what does biden have then?
delusional dem
Biden is not communicating well. His message is not resonating because he is a poor communicator which has only gotten worse and my get worse as campaigning and governing ramps up. He comes across as old without a fight. His voice is monotone His gaffes during the NAACP speech saying he was VP during the pandemic does not help He needs several effective communicators in key states. Polls should not be close!!
Agree! As I told Simon, Dems would be better off if he were the one debating Trump.
I disagree. Biden wrangled R’s at both SOTU. He did it over border bill. He did it with debate rules. If you ACTUALLY watch Biden’s speeches ( yes he stutters from his youth) vs. tRumps side snake oil selling slurring ramblings of speeches. There is no contest! Hard working Statesman vs Cringy disastrous con-man literally taking away freedoms! (And if you are a gun lover, tfg will certainly take those away to protect his reign at some point in the fascist future if we allow that path by returning him in Jan)
I’d ask if you are so concerned about Biden’s messaging, how are YOU helping Biden win in your circles? Unless you don’t want him to win??!! Everyone needs to decide R’s included, do you want to be part of the solution (Cheney Kinsinger Geoff Duncan Bulwark) or do you want to complain? Will you feel good about yourself on Nov 6, if a fascist gets elected, by how much you complained?
Check out rvat .org and YT and see other R’s bailing on tRump and speaking their minds. Share it liberally! Pun totally intended! Volunteer Donate Register Vote Blue☮️
So you want a late-night TV comedian? I think Biden has plenty of fight. Best Pres since Franklin Roosevelt, and facing similarly dangerous threats to the country.
Biden's very infrequent "gaffes" consist of getting a single word wrong. Trump's constant incoherent, irrelevant "Hannibal Lecter" rants show his deep, irreversible, later-stage senile dementia.
All the more reason togetmany good surrogates !!!
Yesterday I was at my optometrist's office and she, point blank, said that trump will win the election. All the news media with pieces that state how far ahead trump is against Biden and how this is influencing everyone to feel discouraged and even giving up. I thought: "maybe I shouldn't even give money to the Biden campaign." so this points out Simon's argument about the influence this negative polling reporting.
Yep!
True , but that is what is so disturbing . Media outlets that typically support Biden are reporting dismal results . I’m concerned they are not accurate, but for entirely different reasons historically Trump has Greatly overperformed his polling numbers on election day
Point being these posters, know what you know and more, and without a doubt would attempt to skew the numbers towards Biden and perhaps already have
CNN has been godawful this year. Shame on them. NYT, too. Neither one factors in abortion and angry women.
@@hgservices5572 lol No. The NYT hates Biden. The fact is that Trump has never won the popular vote. All of these polls showing he will should be tossed out for that alone.
Today's Republicans are so far gone. What a sad mess of a party. And at the helm, #criminaldefendantdonald
Vote BLUE 🗳
Sorry guys, but this sounds like copium. 😂
Don’t know why they even bother with polls 🙄
A huge group of Americans are sleeping thru this slow-moving MAGA coup. What will it take to wake them by November?
November
A huge number of people support Trump's policies and not Biden's. That needs to be understood by the democrats
I've been listening to Simon and I am very disappointed
Great messaging. Great communicator. Totally full of it lol. Your facial expressions mirrored my thoughts while listening to him talk. Thanks for the great interview!
The freaking lies this guy is spewing!! lol
Dude, did you see the Bronx rally the other day?!
Yeah, explain that!
Cope harder
Trump 24!!!!!
Everything is NOT OK.
How do you determine that? There are polls that show trump way ahead and some show Bidden way ahead and some show them tied.
But of course let's stick to the hand wringing
He's an EXPERT, that's HOW!
Harry Enten.. What a hack
If Matt is really a “conservative” but dislikes Trump, then why is he so passionate about Biden winning reelection?
❤ NOTICE THEY ARE NOT SAYING THE INFLATION WORD - SHOWS YOU WHAT PROPAGANDIST THEY ARE❤
Same headline in October 2023
I genuinely don’t understand how Matt can so clearly see the dire situation we’re in, yet is going to throw his vote away to some write-in or third party candidate
Farms are being closed. Chicken. Farms.burn. and now wanting ranches. Do you remember when the gov Chickens were on strike and not laying eggs. Farm chickens came to the rescue because they were laying eggs.
Trump typically overperforms his polling , I think it’s going to be a landslide for Trump .
Dang, are you gonna be disappointed. And Trump always UNDERperforms. Without Putin's help on 2016, Trump would have lost badly.
Yes always under performs.
But of course he told you the opposite
🤔 Putin and Russia contributed very little and effect d the 2016 minimally according to investigators . Many nations every election cycle try to influence IS elections, not just Russia .
Hillary was a terrible candidate that’s why she lost . Mueller investigation proved no evidence of russian collusion and subsequent investigations found it to be fabrications from the opposition party to hinder Trumps presidency.
Furthermore , Trump underperforms his polling ? This is generally not true , just look at the polling data by state on the 2020 election and you will see that Trump greatly outperformed those polls losing by a very narrow
Margin to win the electoral college. State rule changes, mass mail in ballots and dark money ( Zuck bucks / see ballot box placement in Wisconsin etc ) and media blackouts of the Hunter Biden laptop ( falsely claimed to be Russian disinformation ) , damning claims in bidens daughters diary ( also now proven to be true ) and relentless negative media coverage contributed to Biden winning the electoral college in 2020 in the early hours of the next morning . Trump received the most votes for a sitting president in history with over 75,000,000 votes. Biden “received” the most votes in history period with mass mail in ballots with over 81,000,000
That's ALL he does, PEFORM. He's an evil man!
That intro music is great
Welcome Welcome Mr Donald Trump you r a next president USA 🇺🇸 well done 100%Mr Benny Johnson vp welcome 🇺🇸 ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤,
Simon, can you please explain how national polling matters? In the context of EC inanity, I find it hard to appreciate how anything but the swing states are worthy of emphhasis.
Yours is not a dumb comment. No state outside of a 4% difference in 2020 is going to flip.
Biden will win ALL the swing states, plus FL and NC. And, perhaps, TX. WOMEN ARE TOTALLY PISSED OFF. And they have an 11:10 ratio in voters. The RNC is broke. Trump has no ground game.
Those CNN numbers - what did they do, find the most MAGA sampling possible? Who needds Rasmussen polling, when CNN is out there?
Oh, trust me, they are useless. I'm waiting for Allan Lichtman's prediction. Right now, it's looking good for Biden.
I look at the numbers and try to get a sense of them with my engineering mind. Hillary's 3 million popular vote win lost the Electoral College. Biden got a 7 million win, and he won the Electoral College. Since all but 5 or 7 states are solid for one side or the other, the popular vote IN the Swing states combined means more than overall. Hillary won California by 2 million and only won the rest of the country by 1 million. Her 2 million overvotes in CA didn't help her around the country. That is too close. Biden won CA by 5 million and the rest of the country by 3 million. Better. But those 5 million overvotes in CA were useless votes.
No matter what NYT is saying, Biden is going to win the popular vote nationally by at least 10 million, but I am figuring on 15 million, in good part because of the abortion issue. The polls are not allowing anything for that. That issue will tilt all the close states (including NC and FL) toward Biden.
Every election is different, but popular vote nationally does indicate the general energy in the country. It is not going to swing Kansas or Rhode Island to flip. But in the 2% states it WILL matter. I figure a 6% swing. Biden won by 4.65% nationally and he got 306 EVs. If abortion swings millions of pissed off women, it is in the bag. And I think it will and Biden will get more EVs this time.
🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾👍🏽
If creature trump wins, we can thank his 100s of millionaire billionaire backers.
Go look at Ruy Teixeira. He carefully unwinds new data points representing new topological voter boundaries and realignment. Working class voters are now Republicans and the educational and economic elite including the top 500k and over voter category are democrats. Working class and working poor against the bourgeoisie. Check it out. I'm an urban nurse and work with the homeless. Yes, Trump in the bronx tomorrow.
The guy in the blue coping hard!
Vote Biden!
I'm in urban Minneapolis as a nurse with homeless. I spent my life as an activist and last year I left democrats. Urban MAGA is a grassroots coalition of working class voters. The marriage of corporatism and big government does not work for me. Billionaire lobbyists are in my way of bringing reasonably priced healthcare anyone can afford out of an average paycheck. Republicans have been successful in their ground campaign in teaching urban independent black media about the foundational Republican party. Urban Minneapolis nurse activist for Trump 2024. Topological voter boundaries have realigned. Wake up.
You were never a Dem
lol clown. thank you.
I fear for any of your patients as you support an insurrectionist, pathological liar, wanna be dictator. Shame on you!
These polls are bonkers…. Biden is way ahead of Trump
Let's hope so. Everyone who supports Biden should still act like he's behind. We need urgency here.
No. I left the dems last year so did my family. In Minneapolis.
Joyce, I have Biden getting 55-58% in November, winning FL and NC and MAYBE even TX, plus holding all the swing states. Dems get the House and Senate, too. Abortion is not being allowed for in these.
Trump will win. I changed parties last year. MAGA
You fuc**ked up last year.
Don't lie. You were always MAGA
More maggot lies!
Trump 2024
Why hate America?
Maggot!
Is that an action figure?
It’s what you get when you tell AI to make a “panic button.”