Hi Ali love the content, I always thought a complex breakout strategy while there's a simple strategy that works on the market. I'm curious though with the backtest chart on time 8:24, on the far left trade. According to your strategy a long position will close when close price is lower than close of 6 bars ago, but the far left trade is closing when previous close is still higher then all 6 bars ago. Am I missing something here?
some excellent pieces of advice and approach Ali. Hope those watching truly understand the message you are trying to get across here. You are a shining light in the darkness of trading youtubers.
good point, also a trailing stop will work here. Only testing can determine the conclusion ☺ In general I prefer a portfolio to smooth things over SL & PT
I've using easylanguage for the past 20 years off and on, but SQX solve the automation problem beautifully, but it can't replace a full development environment. So when videos require developing certain indicators or patterns then you need a full development environment to make sure that everything is working as it should.
Thank you for another good content. I have a question. During the process of creating a strategy or converting strategies to a portfolio and finally monitoring real transactions, do you use data analysis such as political news, economic news or any market index? And if yes, do you use business intelligence software? Do you think that automatic analysis of current data can help in managing the portfolio and improving its performance? For example, stopping and starting or replacing strategies in the portfolio automatically And according to the data that has been analyzed. Sorry, my question is long
news and political events are already built in if you tested correctly. Upcoming volatile events like BREXIT where you know when it is going to happen can be used to reduce position sizing (if you have big capital) but that is only psychological as long term those blips will barely even show on the equity curve. turning strategy ON/OFF, adding/removing are integral part of portfolio maintenance, but they are not dependent on news/political events, instead they are like the strategies have a quantified metrics with rules.
@@StatOasis Is it possible to give more guidance? I would like to know what is your process for portfolio management through quantified data? What kind of quantitative data and what do they include? And what is the interaction between portfolio strategies and quantified data for portfolio management?
Optimizing over long and short separately implies that you are sometimes BOTH long and short the same instrument simultaneously. And consequently in violation of NFA. Or am I missing something?
Thanks Ali! If I would’ve started this portfolio at the 50k loss year, what is the DD? Would it erase the capital? I mean - what is the needed capital for this and how would the bad year impact on the capital?
I understand your point about smoothing out equity curves by trading a portfolio, but I'm not sure I agree on the principle of choosing a strategy based on its overall metrics, rather than it's equity curve. You could have a strategy that has a horrible equity curve, but which happens to end on a high so the overall metrics are good. However, if your test period ended earlier the overall metrics could be bad. My point is that the overall metrics are a snapshot of a particular point in time that is essentially random, so I don't think it's a good idea to evaluate strategies mostly on the basis of their overall metrics - I think you must look for a decent equity curve as well, and not just rely on the portfolio to smooth it out. Any comments @Ali?
For sure, you are always shooting for good metrics and good equity curve, but the more strategies you add the higher priority goes to correlation with other returns and less to look of equity curve. Of course if you get both then its even better. Also please keep in mind that this is not final and a monte carlo run will give a more realistic future expectations
not all competitions are the same, for example world cup trading championship look for highest return without regards to drawdown, which is completely unrealistic. for the top 3 winners every year that are making more than 100%, there are thousands of completely wiped out account, as you have to add huge leverage and take huge risks (like risk of wiped out) and lots of luck to come up on top that year. The only reason people do it is get famous in the industry (which has its benefits), but keep in mind in real life that kind of return does not exist. there are other competition that do take risk in to the winning equation but they are not popular. So all are beneficial, but they do require time, money and energy to compete, as they don't allow automation, and I should be doing them. I do know a couple of really good traders who made all the right decisions, but are not even on the top 20 every year and been doing this for the last 10 years, as luck didn't show up for them so far.
![BLACK BAG - Official Trailer [HD] - Only in Theaters March 14](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Du0Xp8WX_7I/mqdefault.jpg)
Thank you good man 🙏🙏🙏
Hi Ali love the content, I always thought a complex breakout strategy while there's a simple strategy that works on the market. I'm curious though with the backtest chart on time 8:24, on the far left trade. According to your strategy a long position will close when close price is lower than close of 6 bars ago, but the far left trade is closing when previous close is still higher then all 6 bars ago. Am I missing something here?
there is a different lookback for entry and exit, you can check the code in the community go.statoasis.com/community
some excellent pieces of advice and approach Ali. Hope those watching truly understand the message you are trying to get across here. You are a shining light in the darkness of trading youtubers.
I appreciate that!
Great how you tested all filters in MC with optimization. Looking forward to the new course!!!
Me too!
the 3d "water level" graph reminds me an old PC game called SimCity 2000. I love it.
👌😂
If incorporating target profit into a trading system, it may smooth up the performance curve and reduce Drawdown?
good point, also a trailing stop will work here.
Only testing can determine the conclusion ☺
In general I prefer a portfolio to smooth things over SL & PT
What software are you using?
Software is go.statoasis.com/mc
love the content Ali, i have noticed in recent videos you are using different software, have you moved on from SQX?
I've using easylanguage for the past 20 years off and on, but SQX solve the automation problem beautifully, but it can't replace a full development environment. So when videos require developing certain indicators or patterns then you need a full development environment to make sure that everything is working as it should.
@@StatOasis Ah thanks Ali, that makes sense. I am learning a lot from your content and the discord. keep up the good work!
i love the content. More intraday strategies are needed due to not many having the capital to trade daily charts
More on the way
What session times are you trading here? The entire session or only a more liquid subset of hours? Awesome content BTW!
day session which is usually New York time
What software are you using to conduct this analysis? How accurate is the data?
Software is go.statoasis.com/mc
Data is from tradestation, it is one of the high quality providers
Thank you for another good content. I have a question. During the process of creating a strategy or converting strategies to a portfolio and finally monitoring real transactions, do you use data analysis such as political news, economic news or any market index? And if yes, do you use business intelligence software? Do you think that automatic analysis of current data can help in managing the portfolio and improving its performance? For example, stopping and starting or replacing strategies in the portfolio automatically And according to the data that has been analyzed.
Sorry, my question is long
news and political events are already built in if you tested correctly. Upcoming volatile events like BREXIT where you know when it is going to happen can be used to reduce position sizing (if you have big capital) but that is only psychological as long term those blips will barely even show on the equity curve.
turning strategy ON/OFF, adding/removing are integral part of portfolio maintenance, but they are not dependent on news/political events, instead they are like the strategies have a quantified metrics with rules.
@@StatOasis Is it possible to give more guidance? I would like to know what is your process for portfolio management through quantified data? What kind of quantitative data and what do they include? And what is the interaction between portfolio strategies and quantified data for portfolio management?
Optimizing over long and short separately implies that you are sometimes BOTH long and short the same instrument simultaneously. And consequently in violation of NFA. Or am I missing something?
Depending on your account type
Thanks Ali!
If I would’ve started this portfolio at the 50k loss year, what is the DD? Would it erase the capital?
I mean - what is the needed capital for this and how would the bad year impact on the capital?
Required capital depends on how much dd you can tolerate. U need to run a montecarlo to find those levels
@@StatOasis you are right. Thanks.
I understand your point about smoothing out equity curves by trading a portfolio, but I'm not sure I agree on the principle of choosing a strategy based on its overall metrics, rather than it's equity curve. You could have a strategy that has a horrible equity curve, but which happens to end on a high so the overall metrics are good. However, if your test period ended earlier the overall metrics could be bad. My point is that the overall metrics are a snapshot of a particular point in time that is essentially random, so I don't think it's a good idea to evaluate strategies mostly on the basis of their overall metrics - I think you must look for a decent equity curve as well, and not just rely on the portfolio to smooth it out. Any comments @Ali?
For sure, you are always shooting for good metrics and good equity curve, but the more strategies you add the higher priority goes to correlation with other returns and less to look of equity curve.
Of course if you get both then its even better.
Also please keep in mind that this is not final and a monte carlo run will give a more realistic future expectations
Have you ever thought about competing in the world trading championship?
not all competitions are the same, for example world cup trading championship look for highest return without regards to drawdown, which is completely unrealistic. for the top 3 winners every year that are making more than 100%, there are thousands of completely wiped out account, as you have to add huge leverage and take huge risks (like risk of wiped out) and lots of luck to come up on top that year. The only reason people do it is get famous in the industry (which has its benefits), but keep in mind in real life that kind of return does not exist.
there are other competition that do take risk in to the winning equation but they are not popular.
So all are beneficial, but they do require time, money and energy to compete, as they don't allow automation, and I should be doing them.
I do know a couple of really good traders who made all the right decisions, but are not even on the top 20 every year and been doing this for the last 10 years, as luck didn't show up for them so far.