Chance of Eruption In Or Near Grindavik Increased? Probable Scenarios Explained By Geologist
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- Опубликовано: 6 сен 2024
- Geology professor Shawn Willsey provides an update on the latest geologic developments near Grindavik, Iceland as an eruption or magma intrusion appear likely in the coming days or weeks.
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@@shawnwillsey I did !! I was thrilled when your vid came across my suggested watch list- straight and clean science ! No fuss - no muss and well delivered. Thanks 🙏🏼 ☺️
Thanks Shawn. Let's wait and see what happens. 🙂👍
Hi shawn, please don't apologize so much, you can't cover every day the whole volcano-related events or expected events. I apreciate really your posts, all of them, thank you very much for that. From southern germany....
@@kerstinwill …..I ditto that!
Genauso aus der Hessischen Rhön 👍
Many thanks for all your work and efforts. Much appreciated. NZ
Great and sane coverage. No hype, no hysteria, just presentation of the data and how it can be interpreted. The satellite coverage of the uplift area is especially striking. You also get a lot of bonus points for the t-shirt. "Reunite Pangea!" is great, especially on a geologist. I wonder how many of your viewers understand what it is about,
Reunite Pangea, yeah, from The Hunger Games. Lol. Thx ✌🏻🙂
Thanks Shawn. Don't apologise, you have a busy life beyond the channel, and we trust you to keep us apprised of developments when it's needed.
Enjoying catching up now 😊Thanks so much and we are all happy whenever you get chance to do an update. x
I always appreciate you taking time to do these updates!❤ Have a great river trip! 🌊
Thanks for this update Shawn: and so we wait! Enjoy your river trip.
Still appalled by the people who were exclaiming after the end of the last eruption that "things will die down" without having any evidence at all to present. I honestly think there's nothing worse than giving a damaged community false hopes in such an unpredictable situation.
You have had a lot on your plate recently. Don't worry about it. Congratulations on achieving 116K.
Thank you so much 😀
Thank you for this update, Shawn! Very interesting and thorough as usual :) And I agree with what you said about the people of Grindavík: they're doing the best they can... Thanks also to Amanda Jo! I hope she's fully recovered now? ... Love your t-shirt, by the way! ;))
Thank you Sandrine. Amanda Jo is feeling much better.
@@shawnwillsey Well, that's good news :) Have a great river trip!
Thank you Shawn and Mandie Jo 😊 great content update and breakdown 😊 I look forward to your next instalment ❤
Iceland is the Hawaii of Europe❤️
Icelandic people are pretty bright handeling this topic!
Building lava Walls - When lava eat a Road - They fix a passage thru days after..
Remember the 70 ish eruption, they found out how to save an very important harbour, by spraying sea water on the lava🥰 Controlling its path and letting the lava build its own Walls 💪🏻
Thermal powerplants provide the people with Co2 free cheap power and district heating…
The thing is : That much volcanic and tectonic activity, they learn fast and use the flow of data to perfection💪🏻😎👍🏻
Keeping Grindavik in heart and mind. Hope nothing happens while Shawn is off on his weekend trip!
Thanks Shawn for the update. It is greatly appreciated. Hope you have a good time on your river trip. Enjoy!! Wait to hear from you next week.
I love your t-shirt! Also, thanks for the excellent update as always
An exciting river trip! Go for it. Thanks for the update.
Thank you for the update professor! Please don't apologize for taking time for yourself, I know too many people who over the last few days have broken down under the stress of life. Take care of yourself, and we will still be here for an update when you get back.
Aloha from Makaha...it's been a busy week for you....Kilauea, Iceland and Yellowstone....morning updates are awesome
Indeed. Thanks for watching.
Thank you, all updates appreciated. ❤
Thanks for the update. Good consise (but with sufficient detail) summary without any sensationalism. Nice to see these!
AFAIK, no improvements have been made to the berms around Grindavik itself. All of the work seen has been to the berms near the Svartsengi PP. They look to have added another 5m or so to much of the berm to the north of the PP, where the lava overflowed towards the end of the most recent eruption. This week, there has also been a little work done to increase the height of the berm in the saddle to the east of the PP.
Finally, for the GPS graphs, these are all automatically scaled to fit the data being plotted. If you look at the SENG plot, you'll see a couple of erroneous datapoints from a couple of months ago. These are the cause of the unhelpful scaling of these plots following the restoration of service on this server. The gap in the data towards to right side of the graph mostly corresponds to the 2-3 day period when the server was down due to hardware problems.
Thanks for the update.. hope it doesn’t erupt in Grindavik 😊
Thanks for the update. The time and effort you and Amanda Jo put into these updates is greatly appreciated. 🙂
Enjoy your trip.
Thank you. I appreciate your efforts and the updates 🏆
Thanks for the update. Have fun on your trip.
Thank you Shawn. Excellent review, as per usual. Enjoy your trip.
Thank you for all the updates lately 😊😊
Hi all from New York
Thank you for the update
Thanks Amanda for helping Shawn and thanks to you Shawn for sharing this video. 😊 Great video. Full of interesting info.
Thanks for all the hard work on these videos!
Very nice and informative
Shawn, your loyal viewers are busy with summer activities, too! Lately I am having trouble staying current on your Geology 101, volcano/geyser and travel videos, but certainly not because of a lack of interest. Just time. So maybe if you have an uninterrupted river journey with no computers in sight, people like me can catch up! lol. 😂. Have a good trip and thanks as always from Minnesota.
Ha. Good point. Catch up when you can and enjoy your summer fun. FYI-I’ve queued up two new videos to drop while I am gone. 😉
Shawn, flying to Iceland right now. Thank you for keeping us up to date with all that is going on. You are making this almost a full time job! Enjoy your river trip!
Thank you for the update, Shawn. 8 eruptions, and with each eruption, it seems like it just keeps pushing towards Grindavik, and Blue Lagoon. No doubt, none of us want to see that come to fruition, but the probabilities are just too darn high. Have a good river trip, I'm guessing it's Colorado River or Cataract Canyon? Both in my backyard, Canyon Land, and the gateway to the great Grand Canyon. No winds, and temp has stayed below 90's. Both geological wonderland, looking forward to your exploration content of your river trip. Take care Shawn, and please stay safe!
Thanks. Trip is on Salmon River in Idaho.
@@shawnwillsey Heyyyy, upper and lower are some good fly-fishing areas, rugged but beautiful mountainous regions. Same with Montana, again, have an enjoyable safe river trip.
15:16 Considering this "glitch" started around July 20th, I wonder if this is due to the "CrowdStrike incident"?
15:55 Their "change of scale" seems to be due to two bad data points, rather than a deliberate change. Hopefully they'll get those removed, from this one chart in particular, but also from some of the others. The bad data points are in the other stations as well. Notably those two points do not have error bars.
Came here to say both of those things. 😉
Glad amanda jo is able to help you. I hope she is feeling better.
Thanks Professor Willsey for the information. ❤
@shawnwillsey great video, nice that it's a clock volcano with a repeating scenario from intrusion or Eruption
This guy "walking us through it" reminds me of my chemistry teacher. When there was some complicated bit of chemistry, he used to say "Look at the blackboard (it was a long time ago) and I will walk through it once again. We had clearly missed him walking through the blackboard before so we watched intently but never ever saw him walk through the board.
Thank you for the update... So much earth news. We live on a living planet. We are living in a little window in geological time. Volcanos takes and it also gives 🌋
Iceland is never boring & it’s magnificence is enthralling 😊
Thank you for the update.
Great video. Thank you for fixing the audio level ❤️
Great summary, thank you so much! Very clear and understandable.
Thank you for a great update.
Love the shirt. Thanks for the update!
Nothing to apologize for dude! Thanks for what you do
Thanks for this update ! It’s concerning to see that the town is so close to the volcano 🌋 👀
Thanks 🙏🏼 again 🌼🌟☺️✨🦋🌟✨🪻
“The town so close to the volcano” ?
The whole mass of Iceland is a volcano.
@@edwardlulofs444 Well !! Nice point … here’s a cookie 🍪
@@Stormy7573 I am a scientist and I pray for the people of Iceland.
@@edwardlulofs444 That’s wonderful - but your message struck an unkind tone.
My apologies 😊
@@Stormy7573 yes. I apologize. I’m having a bad week. Thanks for your comment.
For the life of me, I can't see why they have spent money on repairs in town with all this still going on
Grindavik is home to fishing; roads were needed for shipping catch. Not sure what other repairs are going on as they're keeping people generally out of town until all of this is settled out. iirc daylight hours only
Hope springs eternal.
It’s their home.
I understand what you are getting at. Infrastructure to keep the industries going is understandable but homes is another issue. It is a delicate balancing act. if people want to stay, it is up to them, not the authorities.
@@reekoreeko1857 delicate balancing act alright. One needs a signed statement from people in danger or it might be considered mismanagement.
Tough problem.
Happy holiday 🥳🥳 Thanks, just what I wanted to know. 🕊🥳💜
In the case of an eruption that threatened to cut Grindavik off, especially if it happened at night, helicopter rescue might prove difficult. Stationing a coastguard cutter in/near the harbour as a precaution might be wise.
If you’ve seen footage of previous eruptions, helicopter rescue would be entirely viable - more so than rescue by boat.
I love these updates especially the shorter ones when there's no eruption.
Hi Shawn I leave Iceland tomorrow after 3 wonderful weeks. This morning I've been at the place where the lava ran over the road and at the berm that protects the Nothern Light Inn. In fact they are raising the berms you were pointing at north of the Blue Lagoon. There were lorries an excavators on top of the berm.
Thank you for the update! I love your T-shirt 😂
Have fun on your trip!
Thank you!
Thanks a bunch🎉
It's interesting that the center of the uplift is under Svartsengi plant. Is there a possibility that the plant operations and water leakage is reducing the viscosity of the magma and contributing to the erupting of lava?
The magma is several kilometers below the depth that the plant operates at.
While the chamber is about 5km down I have been wondering if the upping and downing of that land area is weakening?
Thank you for the update. Enjoy your trip!!
Thanks
Uplift suggests Grindavik area has huge flat rock plates subsurface that allow magma to lift and spread out large distances.
Thanks!!
Hi Shawn, thanks for sharing. For Svatrtsengi GPS I think they have some stray measurements that automatically zoom out the scale. I hope they address this to remove these measurements to get back into a reasonable scale. My upcoming tripo to Iceland is now very soon and I hope to see a 'warm welcome'...
Thanks for the update. I am in a state of constant suspense, hoping that the eruption happens while I am there. 3 weeks to go until I leave NZ for Iceland! Sooooo excited! 🎉
Hello everyone!
Thank you Shawn (liked and subscribed). So interesting, as always. I have learned so much about geology from these posts!
Awesome, thank you!
Thanks shawn, concise and clear as ever. Gotta say I am confused as to why so much money is being spent already for grindavik, I don't mean that in a disrespectful or disparaging way, it just that the signs are clear. The where is not. The work to protect the town is absolutely understandable and the proof has also been justified. I would hateto see it all for nothing. The anomalous intrusion that hit grindavik, on Google maps, does show an old line I thought was a path going into town in line with the subsequent eruptions. I wonder if that is what the met office have concerns about? Enyhoo, thanks and to Amanda jo too for her great participation in helping you to deliver fantastic content. All the best 😊
Love your t-shirt!
thanks for explaining the change in the GPS graph....I was wondering about the change in the slope of the data...
Great. Shirt. Thanks for the update, Shawn!👍
So, I guess Willsey an eruption soon...?
Sorry, I know, bad pun... but I couldn't resist. Anyway, just wanted to say I really appreciate these updates, thank you for all you do!
Enjoy your trip maximally. Stay amazing!
Just wondering if the protection berms are being upgraded during the lulls? Watched till the end and my question was answered.
I wonder if the Met Office highlighting the possibility of an eruption inside the berms is partly a reaction to the increased number of people working in Grindavik and talk of repairing infrastructure.
Love the "Reunite Pangea" tee shirt!
Shawn, where do you get your geology related T-shirts. I've got a geologist friend who could use a few of them!!
Enjoy the river trip…a way to stay cool 👍🏻.
Sadness I missed you at the old penitentiary presentation. something something medical interference. Thank you for the digital content!!!
Great analysis Shawn. Is Amanda Jo better?
Yes. Thanks for asking.
Thanks!
Many thanks for your support.
Could you do an update on Campi Flegrei please? I'm headed to Naples in September, haha
He said he doesn't do updates on Campi Flegrei some time ago. You can get good videos on CF by Italian scientists they usually have automatic English subtitles
My SWAG is September 15th based on the increased elasticity (decreased pressure) in the 4KM deep magma pool. This is based on the "reinflated balloon" model of geology. ;-)
That hill just north of town where the lava and water had mixed is a new threat for this coming eruption (My Thoughts only )
Was the GPS data gap caused by the CrowdStrike outage?
Hello there, wonderful videos and updates. Question. With all these millions of cubic meters of larva flowing over the land. Dose the extra weight of the rock on the land affect how and when it will erupts?
?
No. The channels formed through the ground have a far greater bearing than the surface being “sealed” by a layer of hardened lava. This is obvious from the fact that most of the latter eruptions have occurred near previous eruptions, not at the edge of the new lava. field
Could the past quakes have done enough damage to the rock layers around the previous eruptions that the lava is just filling in the small voids and there isn't enough solid rock in the area that can provide the pressure needed to cause an eruption.
That shouldn't be an issue. The recurring scenario that is playing out is the magma chamber expands a little each time the magma refills it. Once it reaches a certain pressure the eruption is likely to occur. It may be delayed as happened with 2 previous intrusions.
The other question is how long will the process of refill, erupt, refill, erupt continue? No one can say for sure.
Is it me or is there a lot more volcanic activity right now? Or is there just more data therefore more news? also curious if you think all the extra water in the oceans from melting glaciers could be gravitationally squeezing lava chambers under the oceans?
The number of volcanic eruptions has been consistent at 40-50 on a given day. Keep in mind that most of those are low level eruptions and last a short time. I would say no to your second question.
this is my dream.. i want to study volcanos. hopefully i could shift my field after I finish my masters.
ive been watching some documentary's on PBS NOVA here on RUclips. some great volcano videos for anybody interested.
This is a dumb question. Can they statistically predict where the magma would hit the surface? If they could could they not place snapped charges to weaken an area and somehow control the direction of the flow? 🇨🇦
There is too much uncertainty in when an eruption will occur. But so far in almost every eruption in this region has been north of Hagafell. But exactly when it begins is hard to say.
Explosive charges would probably have little effect on an eruption. I can't say why, but I'm sure geologists have considered it.
@@michaeldeierhoi4096 Thank You for the insight!
Why don't they remove the structures in Grindavik and build up a new village in another area? Why wait for the obvious outcome eventually?
Grindavik is especially positioned as a fishing town.
Establishing a new fishing town may depend on limited options. Not being a fisherman I can't say what criteria would come into play in that circumstance.
Lastly, starting a new town is expensive. Iceland is not a wealthy country.
There is no given that Grindavik will be destroyed by an eruption in the near future so by coping the best way they can the people there can forestall making such a dramatic change. imo
Safe travels on the river
more earthquakes are showing up in the near Grindavik/Svartsengi area
my question is what are the chances that the fault that this eruption follows ends up in the bay that the town sits on?
An eruption a couple months back almost made it to the ocean on the east side of Grindavik so if the eruption is far enough south that could happen again. And of course a major eruption in the town would likely reach the ocean, but that is considered less likely. Time will tell.
@@michaeldeierhoi4096 not the lava, the fault. splitting the town in two
@@DAYBROK3 There is already a fault running north to south through the eastern side of Grindavik which is the western edge of a graben. The graben is maybe a few hundred meters wide and at least a km in length and does continue to the ocean if memory serves.
This is due to the upwelling of magma in the last 4 years which is stretching the southwest part of the Reykanes Peninsula and has led to the volcanic activity to the north.
If this hits the city they need to have their boats ready to evaluate people
There are roads to the east and west that would be more effective evaluation points. But who can say for true. I'm sure they considered the possibility.
Many events to juggle
there are two anomalous data points in the GPS that are skewing the scale.
❤❤❤❤
Unfortunately Shaw you will likely have to live for the next 250,000 years to keep us all updated, the profession you have chosen seems to take forever to complete it’s task.
Pun intended… but for real, thank you and be safe.
🤞🤞🤞Di…Cumbria.