Will Bitcoin Capitulate?
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- Is #Bitcoin preparing for a capitulation event in the coming weeks/months? In this video we talk about a few reasons why this potential outcome is something worth considering and planning for. Of course no one knows exactly which way these markets will pan out, but it is important to remain objective!
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Stay objective!
Possible but the amount of money printed in the past 3 years have been unprecedented, might happen but it doesn't have to happen. Pretty much everyone I know who got the stimulus checks bought crypto with it lol but hey...
I'm learning to be objective along with you mate! It's certainly a journey! Cheers mate.
Your buddy James needs to watch your videos
Good advice 😎
Save cash , cold shower before buy alts🚿 ,
Ben you are the best ! Thanks for all this knowledges , the best channel !
Idk the problem is in 2018 nobody saw the capitulation coming as you said. This year everyone and their aunt is calling for a death wick. Seems odd as the market usually does the opposite of what majority think
@@juliat50 people who are so convinced of an impending death wick that they sell now hoping to buy back in when it does lower?
Plenty of people think that we have hit bottom already.
Many people think, crypto will be dead due to regulations...
For me it was extremely obvious back then, it was making lower highs for 9 months and banging the support level for 9 months.
We have bottomed! When will you guys get that in your heads. I see a capitulation coming for the DXY-- have a look on the monthly for both BTC & DXY then tell me what you see 👀
I remember 2017 - 2018 well, the difference this time is in 2018 more people were bullish at 6k, few people I watched or that were on reddit were bearish. I got all kinds of nasty replies in response to thinking 6k would break. You would have got buried in downvotes for daring to suggest that bitcoin has not bottomed. It's the future, the institutions are in. Now it seems like everyone is bearish waiting for a lower bottom that may never come. Or we might rally, lose momentum and double bottom. Hard to say, but it's never what most people think it's gonna do.
Very true i remember those times, I am ready to embrace both, if it dips, i will buy more, if it goes up i make some. As I am already holding.
@@ivanguzman7999 Me too, it's low enough. ADA at 36 cents is a good DCA price to me. Even if it hits 20 cents I'm just buying.
@@thecrypt5823 Yeah, Bitcoin went on a serious tear in the fall of 2017. The Coinbase app was the catalyst I think. Anyone could now buy Bitcoin, Eth, Litecoin and BCash easily right from their smartphone. The crypto hype on social media was insane and it seemed like Bitcoin had no top and we would all be instant millionaires! lol It's easy to see now in hindsight how it had to crash really hard from that wild party before starting anew. Another thing I've noticed lately is people in the media are starting to trash talk bitcoin again as a scam and a ponzi scheme so don't buy it or you'll lose all your money like all these fools. That stuff makes me bullish lol. When the TV people and people on the street are talking about bitcoin and saying buy, that's always when to start thinking about selling.
"As an Investor, it is your duty to consider all possibel outsomes, not only the ones you want." Another gem from Benjamin Cowen, the Warren Buffet of crypto.
I think it's hilarious how Ben has to constantly cater to people sad about the bear market by saying it's not what they'd want to hear or they might not be pleased. However if BTC capitulates similar to in 2018, that is the best case scenario for all of us. We buy in heavy while prices are low. Not complicated. Ben has been saying cash is king for ages. I'm happily waiting for BTC to fall meteorically. Will put tons of cash in while it's ultra-low. Can't wait.
I hope it goes down to 12 k even just for a day
I would get to be a whole coiner that day
Ben is literally the best youtuber to watch, wish i would found this guy earlier! Good Job mate keep doing what you doing you helping a lot of people 🙂
Best channel on bitcoin, every episode is golden information
100% agree !. My indicator bottomed 18 DEC 2018 and the same indicator bottomed 18 Jun2022 ( also using on chain data), but it is always a chance to go lower and no body knows what the market will do. Having a Algo strategy, i buy always with a deviation of 50-60% and therefore it is ok for me to have my bots running and buying the crash ( i do not DCA). Everything depends on your strategy and the bottom discussion seems to me not so important because of my strategy that i have developed to buy near the bottom no matter where it is .Have a strategy everybody and stay safe. I appreciate your analysis and work Ben. Keep it up!
@@Tyler-Wiley It is a BSI indicator ( Pine Script and Java Script) that i have mostly developed my self .
This is just not what bottoms look like, it's too flat, too calm, for too long. We never spend this much time this close to the bottom.
It will be interesting to see Steve saying the bottom is in, and Ben saying that it's more likely that the bottom is not in. i know both are going for their hones analysis, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the end 😁
Your comments fly all the way to Robertson . NSW
Australia . Tough times
Another day, another "The Bottom Isn't In" video
Hi Ben, great videos. Can you please tell me why one of the doors behind you is so narrow? I realise this is a ridiculous question, but its driving me nuts! :-)
The monthly structure looks similar but technically speaking the oct 2018 monthly btc price is at the 20DMA and the at middle of BB. This time BTC price is already below the 20DMA and at the lower band of BB. The bear market drawdown of btc is around 80%. We already have a 75% drawdown at 17,600. TA and OCA of BTC tells we are already near if not the bottom. But macro-wise we are not. Hope it doesn't play out but if plays out hoping it's only a daily wick or weekly wick. Be ready with your limit orders at 16k to 14k levels.
If I remember correctly the bear market drawdowns of BTC from ‘11, ‘13, and ‘17 peaks were actually around 93%, 87%, 84%, not 80%. The argument could absolutely be made that we’re getting diminishing downside percentage moves with our diminishing upside percentage moves, so I think 80% is a realistic drawdown we could see. But given the macro factor, 93, 87, 84, and the 75% we’ve seen so far is definitely optimistic. 93, 87, 84, 80 falls in line much more smoothly with the data.
And an 80% drawdown takes us right down to 14k.
Yes i would agree it would follow the structure smoothly but as we know about any market, things are not smooth or “normal” so i would also be prepared for a new bull market instead of lower prices as well. I wouldn’t stop buying just because you think it’s going lower.
Sorry to break it to you, but Bitcoin bear market bottoms never occur with a fat wick right underneath another previous bottom (17.5K), if we were to have a large wick it'd most likely go to say 11 or 12K.
I think it all depends on what the stock market does tbh, if the S&P puts in a good bounce from here then BTC will pump and make it less likely it will set a lower low. But if the S&P were to rip back to the downside and hit a 40% recession pullback mark or something then BTC goes lower for sure.
28k to 17k was the capitulation imo
We're going lower
In normal macro conditions, but BTC could go to 10k in these conditions. The FED won’t stop raising rates.
Never said we wasn’t going lower but I doubt we see another capitulation
@@GrayWallMedia could say the same about the volume on the rally from 28k-69k
@@GrayWallMedia volume profile relative to volume at the ATHs matches that of 2018, albeit lower total volume overall. Everyone has their spin on things. Best to be prepared for both scenarios imo.
Been sharing this perspective since August, and even briefly considered it earlier in the year. The decline in volatility was starting to remind me of the timeframe you mentioned. The more price knocks on a support level, the more stress the structure receives and can eventually crack through! Hedged for both directions, but definitely hedging more for a bearish climax.
Don’t worry Ben…we still love you!
Thank you for your TA!! Make us ready for a possible capitulation scenario! 🙏🏼
Bottom definitely not in, general trend is down, and it will break down, it is clear like day and night for me. I went through 2018 break down to 3k, it was BAD.
most useful channel in all Crypto.
honestly, I take a non-conservative approach:
NOTHING at the (stock or crypto) markets repeats itself, just as it had behaved before.
Otherwise, the financ. markets wouldn't be that *in-predictable.*
So, I open small positions, when I think it is a good sign that a run upwards could happen.
But, I place the SL very close.
If price goes near 18k, I won't open any pos.
If it breaks 18k, I will think about small pos. for shorting.
HOWEVER, Nov. seems to get a good month to look out for great ROI price levels - on a long scale.
If you get in at sth like 15k - imagine that - and price drops furthermore, on a long scale you are in a winning position.
Don'T grab a falling knive, better wait for confirmation, but that's the whole story...
Thanks Ben
great work as always.
To paraphrase Goku: "Crypto traders, SELL ME YOUR CRYPTO!!!!!"
Let's capitulate upwards for a change 👍👍
😂
little upwards capitulation is all we need fellas
There is no way too prepare for it. Most people are already underwater. You CAN prepare mentally by buying in when it happens.
Ben, I love your videos. Very informative. You've helped me make all the correct decisions in this 2022 bear market
@@lb2791 he hasn’t been bullish since earlier in the year. You clearly haven’t been watching anything. Go back and watch the videos before you decide to be ignorant and post ignorance on someone’s post
@@lb2791 idk what you’re talking about. Ben’s been bearish since we closed below the bull market support band and then he started calling it the bear market resistance band.
@@lb2791 he said a lengthening cycle is a possibility just like everything else in crypto but he’s been bearish since we’ve closed below the bear market resistance band, as he would call it.
Benjamin is my favorite crypto RUclips channel
The triangle's target in 2018 was around 3.5k. We hit it.
Current triangle's target is around 14k. Perfectly colliding with June's 2019 support. (11k target depending where you draw the lines)
The range of the current triangle is expected to last at the maximum, until 7-8 November.
Again, indicating the capitulation theory in November.
I do believe we will get a capitulation except if by a miracle, we manage breaking the triangle to the upside, therefore invalidating the pattern
There’s no way Bitcoin has bottomed.
So much macro economic pain ahead with no relief in sight.
I have no doubt that the price will go up next year so I will keep buying sats with usdt.
I thoughts and did exactly the same thing in 2018!
Thanks in large part to this great perspective I’m prepared for both scenarios and urge others to plan accordingly. If the bottom is in that’s good and if it’s not that’s even better assuming you have limit orders set down the risk levels. What an opportunity we have
The candlesticks more closely resemble the capitulation zone of 2015, not the bear market bounce line of 2018. The 6K bounce line region was tested immediately after the all-time high in that cycle.
I don't think I've been so scared of numbers since math class..
As Ben once said, alt coins are black holes in bear markets
Thank you for this video. That descending triangle repeating in 2019 and again now in 2022 has really made me reconsider things.
If one is trying to time the bottom, that will require a leap of faith (buying when things seem the worst). If one is protecting their capital, buy when the trend reversal is confirmed (paying a premium why you’re at it).
Spot on. Always buy at a premium after everyone else has done the hard work
What about everybody that’s waiting for lower prices?
The 2018 capitulation was the Hash Wars though, perhaps the recession will have the same effect though.
Well found Ben, but this seems very unlikely. The reference point that you take from 2018 had a way higher RSI level than we currently do. Heck, even the bottom in 2018 was higher than our current RSI.
This was really helpful. Thank you Ben!
Oh man, I really hope this drops to 6k! That would be suuuuch a blessing!
Member from Brazil here, love your videos.
Would be awesome to see you talking about portfolio management
Btc is safe i recon, stocks might keep dropping but the penny has dropped on btc, here comes the decoupling. Heard it here first
Damn dude that was spot on
critique is highly appreciated, but this is why i think it'll capitulate to the 400W
The state of the world and macroeconomic factors are completely different then the previous cycles. I think that these current factors are to big to not ensure a further downfall in price.
I think you're killing it with your videos lately. Seems to me, herd mentality won't take full effect until at least 9/10 indicators are showing a bottom. Until then we bleed slow. Right now we're probably at 8/10. If we hit 10/10 I think we start seeing BTC decouple from macro and finally get used as a hedge, then it's gloves off and current models will be obsolete.
Thanks BEN.
JUNE LOOKS LIKE THE CAPITULATION COMPARED TO 2018.
Thanks Benjamin!
If this bearish scenario that you showed would play out, when the bottom would be? 2023 Summer?
7k here we come
holding cash increases your purchasing power atm
the last bull run cycle 20/21 was weaker than the previous bull run cycles why not also this Bear market ... it can be weaker than previous bear market cycles !!!
so for me im in the first phase of accumilation ... 30% Btc 70% Cash.
Bitcoin followed the stock market tapper tantrum sell in December 2018. Fed is nearing and end to raising rates at the end of the year. Stock market is down and priced it in. We are in a different market to me.
Great perspective. 👌
I'm sticking with the Benjamin Cowen - paraphrased: "BTC doesnt do well against strong dollar" The US Dollar is at all time highs right now. Capitulation to $15k is completely reasonable. Keep an ear open for quarterly earnings mention a Strong Dollars impact on earnings and future projections.
Thank you for your objectivity, Ben! It may prevent a disaster.
Your level-headedness is always much appreciated. Past performance is not indicative of future results, so we could be in for a quite a ride.
I - for one , appreciate buying Sats on discount.
I think the bottom is near. Felt like $17k was the lowest but I might be wrong. I’m slowly inching into it nonetheless. DCA has done me well. Buy Bitcoin!
Gimme dat Capitulate baby! I'm waiting in line like it's Black Friday 2012.
YES! I agree! Im watching the structure as well!
hi , draw a line from ath 69K Nov. 2021 and 48k in mark/april 2022. //// 1 year resistance broken to upside
Thnx Ben. 🥰
It's hilarious someone can say they are a risk averse investor and be investing in Bitcoin. That is exactly how I feel as well though.
I enjoyed this video!
I would say the last top wasn't typical, may we see not a typical bottom this time
thanks BEn
...yes lower low coming, but bear market rally first (in line with stocks).
🎉time to buy at dca and accumulate for next two years. Ethereum is very cheap and Ada can do 10x until 2024.
Ben trying his best to warn us about upcoming capitulation while trying not to reveal that he's a time traveler and causing the current timeline fold in on itself, destroying the universe as we know it
No chance of a capitulation from here whatsoever. That has already happened. We are moving higher from current levels and we are not coming back. Your opportunity to get in is fast disappearing.
Thanx Benjamin
If things get really bad I can see Bitcoin coming up a substantial amount forsure.
Ben, why nobody is talking about QNT?
It is a possibility. But also if we just consider the may-21 as the "real top" that was frontrunned so would be higher than the 69 top hypothetically...
Then we could draw a big descending triangle like in 2018 with the bottom of the triangle being around 30K as opposed to 6 k in 2018. Meaning we have already had our capitulation from 6 k to 3k. Another possibility...
but why did it capitulate in 2018? Was anything happening at the time? Any bad news?
NOW BTC WILL GO TO 30K. Then go down to 18k. Then bull market will start.
Question:What about all the money printed during covid crash?Can this influence the bitcoin bottom?
That was a well thought out presentation. It helped me a great deal. Thank you.
Can we get one TA opinion on DOT,its been long time you spoke about it and I love your content,love from india.🙏
Question is:
Should we measure our current level from the last top ... or should we rather measure from the top logarithmic regression band?
On the rainbow chart we are already very low.
I find it interesting that no one is considering the fact that there are a lot fewer Bitcoins in circulation than in the past bear markets. Also, there are rich hands holding on to Bitcoin for dear life. This did not exist in 2018. Why would they sell now?
You need a lot of down volume to see capitulation now. It's not happening. There aren't enough Bitcoins in circulation to cause a big capitulation.
The bottom was in at $17k.
I mean we're kinda waiting for a blow off bottom like we were waiting for a blow off top
Ben, thank you ever so much!
Think we've had that already, i still think the 69k peak is not the counting top
As usual, the best source of objective analysis from the clearest head in crypto! I thank the Bitcoin Gods everyday for finding the Walter Cronkite of Bitcoin.
Still growing my bag of cash and waiting.
Makes sense.
I appreciate the fact your asking us to at least have an open mind when considering what camp you're in, I remember awhile back you did a video of around 20 indicators and they were split almost down the middle bearish and bullish. One thing different whether or not it means much but the 200wk ma was not above the bull market support band like now, any thoughts on that ? Thanks again
Man, this channel is consistently good. Kudos Ben!
however it goes, as always, thank you for sharing your insights Ben.
Looking at the DOW in Dec 2018 it fell from bull market support band to the 200 week. We are MUCH lower already on all indices. Barring a complete wash out in indices, I think they likely touch 300-week and head up...a 300-week tap for btc would essentially be a double bottom for btc...more likely imo.
Love your analysis and breakdowns but this setup seems so simple it doesn't seem likely. Rarely is an exact pattern going to play out the same. We will know in the next 2-3 months.
MACD on the monthly chart is quite encouraging, what do you think about it?
If the price goes back to $30k before any lower price, will you feel guilty telling people the bottom is not in. Would $30k confirm a trend reversal? I personally think the bottom is in, but who knows really. DCA, have an emergency fund and save bigger chunks of cash on the side to invest in case of dips and you’ll be just fine. Much love y’all.
He’s not telling us whether the bottom is in, he’s telling us to consider the facts based on the past and make a decision ourselves so no I don’t think he needs to feel guilty :) if you’re coming here for definitive advice in what to do, then don’t, he’s a statistician NOT a fortune teller
@@myth3516 Yeah, I know. I shoulda have said “bottom may not be in”.
I mean, literally no one knows(which he's said a million times). Everyone should know by now that its impossible to time the bottom and you should have price-staggered DCA buys.
Seems like we are miles away from turning bullish. I would want it to break 25-26k which isn't going to happen anytime soon. I have been thinking for months we need a big capitulation but now pretty much everyone is saying the same thing.
Don't forget bitcoin/crypto always goes lower than you think it will, so I guess we will find out in this quarter!
@@faisalleeds Maybe capitulation isn't some crazy wick down but 2 years of slow bleeding down to 12k.
Issnt, objectively, the whole market is waiting for lower right now? Wouldnt it be the biggest dick-move to stay at that level, put in the occasional wicks to the downside, then rise up, take advantage of FOMO, then tank it?
But previously we were violently banging that support level for 9 months.
Now not that violent, the up and down swings aren't that harsh and we're only going 5 months going sideways on this low.
Don’t forget, Dec 2018 was the bitcoin cash debacle so would not necessarily do the same again. But the macro is very bad atm so I expect it to drop a bit more yet!
Hi Ben, you mentioned if we capitulate, then all indicators will have bottomed. Did all indicators bottom in the last 2 prior market cycle bottom? This would be a fantastic analysis video. Thank you!