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What Do Military Simulations Show About Taiwan?
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- Опубликовано: 15 авг 2024
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What would happen if Beijing ultimately decides to invade Taiwan? Would the island be able to withstand the attack by the People's Republic of China? What role could the United States play? Would the U.S. military be able to withstand the Chinese onslaught? In this video we tell you all the details.
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#Taiwan #Military #visualpolitik
Leaves out the fact that China is far more vulnerable to a blockade than Russia is, and Taiwan could easily be made unpalatable to invade.
A naval blockade against China will work only if Japan, the US, the Philippines and Vietnam will cooperate with each other to help Taiwan.
China is investing heavily into Pakistan, and want to build up their harbor. China have also started road construction from Pakistani harbor and all the way up to china. China is also gonna make a trump wall along the road to protect it from radical islam attack
entier Russia has almost the same GDP and industrial capacity as a Chinese province China,
China alone has higher GDP than Japan+India+South Korea+Russia all together,
but still so many people prentend that China is more vulnerable and easy to deal with,
to be honest, even the US can finally defeat China, it may takes several decennies and even more than one century, with enormous sacrifices and prices,
thr Anti-China alliamce is nothing new amd creative for the Chinezes, in 300-200 BC, the 6 Eastern States have already formed a Anti-Qin alliance, but unsuccessful,
China is not invincible, but not so vulnerable, it wil be the hardest, toughest opponent that the US have neve met before,
as the contemporary equal Of Roman empire, China survives, until today, rises again and again after each fall, when other empires are died definitely,
so who give us illusion that China is eay to deal with?
China is rerouting traffic through the BRI, although one wonders if it will be successful endeavor?
@@Emilechen China is dependent on raw material imports. All that GDP goes to almost nothing without the fuel, fertilizer, food, and ore they import.
A lot of simulation makes you look that Taiwan is completely defenseless and completely depends on the US. Everyone talks about the US sellling weapons like Harpoons to Taiwan, but Taiwan because of it's strong technology has developed really good missiles. Taiwan’s air-defense missile density (more than 6,000 missiles in stockpile) now ranks second only to Israel’s, with the intention of eventually surpassing that country. Its locally developed Hsiung Feng III and Hsiung Feng II missiles can now hit targets anywhere in the Taiwan Strait. They have more than 2,000 anti-ship missiles. Taiwan is also protected by the sea and natural fortifications such as mountain ranges, making the nation more difficult to penetrate than Ukraine. They would literally sink the whole PLA fleet even before they reach anywhere close to Taiwan. As much as Putin"s invasion of Ukraine was a stupid idea...invading Taiwan is actually 100 x more stupid.
Um, 2,000 missiles is not enough to sink a fleet, especially since that is compared between both anti-air and anti-ship missiles. Not to mention most of their anti-ship missiles are subsonic and not sea skimming, so they are easily shot down.
It looks like you forgot all military ships.have anti-air capabilities.
@@voidtempering8700I didn"t forget that ...but you forget we are dealing with China in this case. China better be careful not to use their military too much. Everything I've ever possessed from China breaks when used too much.
@@borisreljanovic7292 Why are you using an old stereotype that doesn't apply to their military equipment. Based on their export history, all their military gear works fine. It only breaks if you buy cheap items, which is not what their military does.
@@borisreljanovic7292like iphone or tesla?
@@voidtempering8700 I disagree. Despite all its tall claims, a lot of experts doubt the quality of the Chinese arms and weapons, given the overall fall in China’s global market share of arms exports. Besides the hidden costs, including the political ones, Chinese weapons are seemingly losing their charms as they remain largely untested in real combats, unlike the western systems that have proven their worth on battlefields.
Taiwan straddles trade routes for 90 percent of Japan's energy imports. Were it to invade Taiwan, China could put a stranglehold on Japan. So, I expect Japan to go "all in".
Fomer Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said," Taiwan`s crisis is Japan`s crisis." Japan cannot be a bystander if China starts to invade Taiwan.
If that is the case Japan will be no more.
Japan could build nukes overnight
So will China
Taiwan is already incorporated into China and is already a genuine province of China if you don’t believe me then look up KLT music video on the divisions of China. Nicaragua and Cuba because of its strong technology has developed really good missiles. Cuba’s air-defense missile density (more than 7k missiles in stockpile) now ranks second only to Israel’s, with the intention of eventually surpassing that country. Its locally SS-4 SANDAL and SS-5 SKEAN missiles can now hit targets anywhere in the Florida Strait. They have more than 2.3k anti-ship missiles. Big Cuba is also protected by the sea and natural fortifications such as mountain ranges, making the nation more difficult to penetrate than Ukraine and Taiwan. They would literally sink the whole USA fleet even before they reach anywhere close to Cuba. As much as Bush’s invasion & loss in Afghanistan was a stupid idea… invading Cuba & Central America is 10,000x more stupid.
Bot
What? WTF is this lmao
You copied Boris Reljanovic comments about Taiwan's missile and replaced with Cuba bot.
Where's the proof? At no point of history has Taiwan ever been ruled by a communist government. This goes to explain why Taiwan is prosperous and china is the most indebted country in the world I'd suggest
Who said anything about invading Cuba?
Never underestimate a soldier fighting to protect their homeland.
You are talking about the PLA, right. They are defending a Part of China called Taiwan.
@@bobcharles7716uh no. They would be invaders. Republic of china is the legitimate government of both Taiwan and mainland china.
Like bahmuk
@@bobcharles7716 Polylactic acid? This isn't the video on biodegradable plastics. Move along
@@thepeff Your wise crack (if you can call it that) is not nearly as good as mine.
Clarification: The CCP currently has 3 aircraft carriers but has plans to launch another 3 for a total of 6.
the catch is theyre made in china
@@chinesesparrows the catch is Taiwan is 100 miles from China. They need exactly 0 aircraft carriers.
@@chinesesparrowsthey have space station , they land rover on mars , they brought back dirt sample from dark side of the moon , whats your country have ? Balut or chicken masala?
@@M_Jono I’d trade the whole worthless CCP for a good chicken masala!!
All of those “achievements” you mentioned were stolen through dirty espionage, not true innovation. China-fascist slave labor camp.
The catch is the carriers are not far from WWII technology and they lacks a battle group to support it.
I work in the semiconductor industry. Taiwan’s technology is absolutely top of the top and I understand the US need to keep it secure. It’s the oil fields of the next generation.
so the US only cares about the semi conductors in other-words. they don't give a shit about the tiawanese. if they could simply replace them all with Americans they would.
Makes you wonder why the US would allow such strategically important technology to be that close to China.
Are they willing to die to protect Taiwan's semiconductor chips though?
@ssss8162 of course. That's why America does all this shit
@tommygun5038 go have extra justification to box in China
Never underestimate a soldier fighting for their homeland, way of life ,and their families
@PeteBooty-JuiceNazi Germany and Imperial Japan like “hold my beer”.
It would be pretty safe to assume that the UK and Australia would be dragged into such a conflict through the AUKUS treaties.
Not to mention NATO. At least if China fires back when we defend Taiwan, that would trigger article 5. China would be facing down the barrels of the entire worlds arsenal. In reality itll be a proxy between Vietnam and Beijiing though. Unless Xi has the mind if a pooh bear.
If you don't want to do anything, then break that treaty and sever all relations with the US.
There you go, I just solved your problem.
And Japan and South Korea and if a US base is attacked the rest of NATO
@@cashewnuttel9054 Sever with the worlds only global super power ... over a nation who hasn't fired a weapon since 1979 ... Keep making my phones
@@markmierzejewski9534Jameslewis2635 does not want either the UK or Australia dragged into the conflict. However, the treaty they have with the US will drag them into it, I gave him a very simple solution to save thousands of British and Australians from death.
And I don't live in China if that's what you are implying with "Keep making my phones".
CCP has never ruled over Taiwan while KMT (Taiwan) ruled over mainland China.
There is only one China, the elected Republic of China.
@@jeremyjackson7429 I hear the KMT recently rescinded their claim on Mongolia.
KMT is no longer the ruling party in Taiwan after Taiwanese were allowed to vote for their own president.
The current ruling party is DPP founded in Taiwan and is pro Taiwan independence.
The current leader of DPP and the president of Taiwan Tsai even has aboriginal Paiwan heritage.
KMT ruled over Taiwan for 50 years under dictatorship backed by the US. KMT and the Chinese refugees that lost civil war only count around 10% of Taiwan’s population. Most Taiwanese did not participate the founding of ROC and did not participate the Chinese civil war. Most Taiwanese were Japanese citizens and KMT’s ROC government even had a Chinese consulate in Taihoku:Taipei in 1930s.
KMT claims ROC to be China while DPP does not, so do most Taiwanese not.
A lot of videos talking about Taiwan ignore what Taiwanese think. They just mention about KMT’s old propaganda.
Btw, the Dutch and Spanish came to Taiwan before Qing. Qing only ruled over half of the island only. Japan was actually the first country to rule over the whole island. Before all those regimes came, Taiwan was inhibited by aborigines/Austronesian people. Most Chinese immigrants have nothing to do with Qing nor KMT anyways. They were like most Southeastern Chinese Asians that immigrated out of China centuries ago to find a better life overseas.
@@danielch6662 : They haven't. It is still in theri constitution
@@bctvanw That is true about the population not all being of Chinese descent. Around 5% are not chinese/han as Formosa was only handed over to the ROC in repearations for Japan's crimes in WW2. 95% though are Han Chinese refugees driven from the mainland. The CCP has never had control of Formosa.
I’ll say this much.
If such a war ever does break out Taiwans semi conductor industry will be lost forever. To both sides.
No matter who “wins”.
Yep.
Chip fabs are the ultimate "hothouse flower" technology.
And both China and USA are trying like mad to make ownshore replacement fabs as we type.
Interesting times....
Taiwan should increase the length of the military service and increase their ground forces to 200k. No one can defend Taiwan unless Taiwan is ready to defend itself.
為什麼😂台灣人也是中國人啊，目前只是為了撈點利益和美國合作而已，怎麼會為你美國利益去和自己人戰鬥呢？沒有人會像烏克蘭一樣蠢好嗎。
Amphibious invasions just don't seem possible anymore to land a large amount of of armour/troops. Take the area/air first and then roll in. A modern day d-day would be a "fish in a barrel" situation if Taiwan is halfway capable. I guess the latter is the question.
I suspect that the Taiwanese would use Erwin Rommel's plan for the defense of Normandy that Hitler rejected. The Taiwanese would make Bloody Omaha look like an elementary school slap-fight.
amphibious landing is possible when bombs flatten out the protection edges. Study the China and India war in 1962 and you will see how capable Chinese soldiers are.
@@anttycoon Pretty easy to defeat your enemy when your enemy is equipped with bolt action rifles.
@@anttycoonlol 1962 and today are not same with your logic Japan will conquer all of Asia like it did during world war 2. China failed in Vietnam
@@anttycoon Look at the 1979 conflict with Vietnam to find out as well.
There has never been a naval invasion on the scale needed to take Taiwan, ever. The closest is probably Inchoen and Normandy, but both are more than 70 years ago, and both are landing into sympathetic territory. It is hard to say whether 70 years of technological advancements made it easier or harder.
Therefore efforts should likely go towards prevention of a naval blockade, which means either a huge naval showdown, or Taiwan needs to have enough anti-ship missiles to sink anything coming its way.
Taiwan's building a fleet of modern small submarines which would be a strong deterrent against a Chinese naval blockade
Incheon
A couple Destroyers in the Straits of Malacca can shutdown Chinese shipping and bring China to their knees if they move on Taiwan.
Germany invaded Norway and won despite Norway getting help from France, UK and Poland. Even the railroad was build inland and still is to this day because they wanted to prevent German bombing. The British also had a bigger navy. Norway was actually among the most anti-German countries also. Now compare norway to Finland which actually was able to hold off for many months without any help. Germany was also buisy invading Denmark and invaded France, Netherlands and Belgium 1 month later. It is impossible to predict the outcome of a war between China and Taiwan just like almost every other war.
@@steffengustavsen9678 this is where Taiwan's small size is actually an advantage. There are so few possible landing spots that Taiwan knows exactly where China could land, meaning the defenders would be in place if and when they try, as opposed to trying to defend the huge Norwegian coastline. Not to mention that the presence of Penghu Island means that any supply lines from China would be cut off if they don't take Penghu first. So yeah, it is different than the Norwegian invasion by Germany.
Great video. You should do an updated one that includes the video on the Philippines. The Philippines would significantly increase logistical capabilities and support for Taiwan.
The Philippines also said they will not join in a war against China to protect Taiwan. The Philippines can't even protect themselves!
China has been digging an undersea tunnel towards Taiwan for years now
Someone needs to check this out
That would be one of the greatest civil engineering projects in human history even with multinational support and agreement. It would be like Hitler digging a channel tunnel from occupied France to Britain in World war 2.
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 prove it though
@@Truther00 You said they were doing it!
I would not be surprised 😮 if that is true, Chinese has demonstrated they can accomplish what they want and have the patience to doit. Now a tunnel can be a easy target 🎯 i presume?
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 Because China already have it.
Idk what you’re spouting about saying China has 6 aircraft carriers, they have 1 super carrier and 2 smaller class aircraft carriers
West Taiwan isn't going to like this video 😂.
You do realize that officially there is no such thing as Taiwan. They also call themselves ROC.
@@theoutsider7331 or Taiwanese
I don’t know how so many people still don’t get this. In war, no one wins.
Because Americans love war
6:44
*Biden:* we're not gonna step back
*Also Biden:* *immediately steps back
the simulations also said Russia would take Ukraine in like a bunch of a days.
The simulations were never wrong.
It's how you use that arsenal.
Give me Russian arsenal and I will easily make Ukraine fall in next few hours.
Putin never ordered to blow the power plants and railway network of Ukraine even now which is the very basic thing to do in a war.
Nobody knew Russia was that incompetent.
cough, cough Afghanistan!
Correct. These simulations are retarded.
Let's not forget China is also in a worse economic condition than the u.s. China may be spending lots of money on its military the truth is they actually don't have any money left to rebuild itself.
hahahahaha
that was funny
The last time I check it is US banks geeting collapse not China or Russia 😂😂😂😂
Explain this, I don't understand
@@M_Jono Forgetting the Evergrande default? This crisis destroyed real estate confident in China which is a big part of economic growth. We don't even need to talk about Russia, the 3 days military special operation is now a costly 1 year + war.
Yeah, the idea that China's industrial and production capacity would not be targeted in a war with the US is naive. The video's assumption of that point is not based on reality.
Not many people here seem to understand that reunification with Taiwan is a must for CCP to continue taking office. It doesn't matter what party is taking office, reunification with Taiwan is the number one politically correct thing to do. It's not something that any government in China can give up.
fun fact: if the USA says you are a "free or sovereign country" your about to be a warzone.
Even a succesful invasion would be catastrophic for Chinese economy, following inevitable decoupling from West due to sanctions.
The destruction that comes from nukes will be the biggest deterrent. When that shits land on an nation, the amount of destruction would be so large that Albert Einstein asserted that future wars beyond a nuclear war would be fought with stick and stones.
@João P K The west has many many more nukes than China. its 10 to 1 at least.
Like they have been catastrophic to Russia`s economy?? The west nolonger controls the worlds economy
Would be nice if the west pulled out of China before that even
How can China invade itself? Taiwan is apart of China. The US government even recognizes this. The US does not care about Taiwan or its people; it only cares about the semiconductor industry and gaining control of it.
9:02 "China launches the most advanced aircraft carrier on the planet outside the US...". Simply not true. France has nuclear powered carrier. China does not.
Nuclear power is the much of an advantage for a carrier anyway not when the rest of a battle group still needs fueling
Nuclear power is 1950s technology.
@@JA-pn4ji Diesel power is 1890 technology.
French carrier has jets from 1980s. Chinese carrier has 5th generation stealth jets.
@@forbeginnersandbeyond6089 Someone should tell the Brits that their new conventional powered twin aircraft carriers are less advanced than France's 22 year old nuclear aircraft carrier.
Surely if Taiwan had its own independent nuclear weapon capability, then this whole scenario would drastically change. Surely Taiwan must gain its own nuclear deterrence now, for survival, rather than relying on the USA.
Love for Taiwan 🇹🇼 ❤️❤️🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾 from America 🇺🇸 💯💯💯
I look forward to the American Civil War, when will Texas be independent, when will Alaska be independent? ? Isn't the United States the warmonger who loves war the most in the world?
Ok in that case my response would be down with the USA, maybe if USA collapsed like the Roman Empire would the world be better in the long run.
Considering the performance of China's equipment in Ukraine, it's a paper tiger. They'll find this out the hard way when they try to attack Taiwan.
Taiwan is using old obsolete US equipment 2 - 3 generations old.
@@danielch6662 Which is still vastly superior to Chinese equipment. Military hardware doesn't require the cutting edge process nodes that consumer electronics do. Material and systems design is more important than using the latest chip. Of course using actual consumer hardware (like China does) is a recipe for disaster.
@@danielch6662 And that 2-3 generation old US equipment being used in Ukraine is absolutely mauling the Russians and their Chinese made equipment. Cope harder.
What Chinese equipment in Taiwan? Can you give lists and sources for which equipment and how it performed poorly?
you mean us is a paper tiger right lol, hasn't fought a real near peer rival. only some barbarians in slippers riding camels.
The suggestion that the US would not be able to see an invasion coming is absurd. Even Taiwan will know it's coming because China has to drain the Three Gorges Dam before an invasion as they'd lose massive amount of military hardware downstream. Taiwan is well aware of this and has been designing missiles to strike all dams or other strategic targets in China for decades.
Downstream that dam is directly a city with a population of 1,3 million people. Shooting that dam could possibly kill more people that the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And has no military value whatsoever. It’s a bid the same as bombing a nuclear power plant.
No country will do this, not only because of ethical reasons, but also because they will risk losing their Allies and support, they will increase the support for China could perhaps gain new allies, and all this to kill civilians and gain no military advantage whatsoever….
I am sure anyone attacking that dam will have a high probability of getting nuclear response
@@alfeeman and getting a bigger nuclear response in return.
@@johnblaze1878 Lets all die together then.
@@pasta502the point is nobody is going to launch an atomic weapon because of the deturance of a retaliatory atomic strike. Mutually assured destruction, MAD.
To Narrator: You forget one thing. Taiwanese are NOT fighters at all. They FEAR confrontation and fighting and are obsessed with SAFETY. Every Taiwanese I get into a confrontation with runs away, for example. I'm Taiwanese American, so I know this about the people there. They are NOT fighters and are NOT fearless like Ukrainians are and hence are NOT willing to die for their country, even if they claim to. Anyone who knows the people there will tell you this if they are honest and aware.
What's been the track record of the U.S. since the 1960's?
Cut and run.
What do you think will happen if they ever fight China?
They will do nothing but lip services, sorry my honest opinion lol. And even sanctions wise, as if there’s any further sanctions we can possibly apply to china without hurting our economy too much, the US already done everything possible during the trade war, there’s no other options we have from the west, plus under the current global economic situation, the west needs China soooo much more then ever before, without the economic growth from China or Chinese market, who’s gonna buy these cars, bags, computers ets we produce? Definitely not Taiwan hahaha.
India could be an extremely valuable ally in containing China. However, India seems to have lost the trust of the US and west due to its timid stance against Russia.
What timid stance? Ukraine would have fallen by now had it not been for US support. Either way, I don’t see India getting involved.
India national interest is destruction of Pakistan, if China and US is going to war, even if India doesn't join that, I don't see how India won't try to finish Pakistan off while China is looking away.
Lol and u thin we trust the Indians too? 😂😂😂😂😂
@@banditonehundred Read it again. He is saying that Indias reponse has been timid... I.E they have not acted with any morals in the situation. Acting blind to those things means people will act blind if it ever happens to you.
@@pewpewpew9239 there are no morals in foreign policy, if anything India has been very assertive.
Radar and missile accuracy have improved 10 fold since the world's last major amphibious assault. The oceans would be red with Chinese blood. I seriously doubt Chinese mothers would be just fine with their only sons going splat without even a chance to raise their rifle.
by the time chinese troops land on taiwan, the island would be more or less fighting with infantry weapons. China totally dominates taiwan in air, sea and artillery.
@@hughmungus2760 India says hello.
@@johnmcgill3603 india has its hands full with pakistan and trying to get over the himalayas
The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.
An invasion of Taiwan is virtually impossible for Communist China. For a start, the build of forces is impossible to hide. The gap between mainland China and Taiwan is 100 miles, 160km, and takes about 9 hours to cross. The tides are known to be suitable for at certain times of year. There are only 14 beaches suitable for amphibious lodgement. Beaches Taiwan's army engineers have been building defensive works on for over 30 years now. CCP has about 40 large and 20 odd small landing vessels. All up, that is less than 100,000 troops. If they max out the soldier load, they minimise the armour load. Assuming all the vessels make it across the strait to unload their soldiers, (itself highly unlikely), they have to sit still whilst unloading. A process that will take a least two hours. That is a looooong time to be sitting still in full view of your enemy.
Speaking of which, as interesting as the video is, it makes little mention of Taiwanese defence efforts. For a start, they now build their own anti ship and cruise missiles. Most of which can easily strike mainland China. (What, you don't think Taiwan will throw missiles at Chinese port facilities in a war?) They have also started building their own UAV's. I don't know how many they have now, or what their build rate is. But, I can guarantee there will be a couple of hundred within 2 years. With numbers rising there after.
So, the real story is that China is unlikely to be able to successfully invade Taiwan. Not without losing tens of thousands of soldiers. At least. And most likely a lot of its amphibious landing ships.
It is possible Xi does not know this. Given his history of literally shooting those messengers carrying messages he does not like, it's not like PLA generals are going to be honest about any of this. So Xi might believe his own propaganda and think PLA CAN successfully invade Taiwan. OR, in the event Xi fears CCP rule is threatened, he might use an invasion of Taiwan as a unifying event.
One thing is for sure though. China, especially PLA, will suffer huge casualties in the event it tries to invade Taiwan. In that event, it's a relatively safe bet CCP rule of China is coming to a close.
An ex soldier from Taiwan (a real life friend of mine) told me once the Chinese military wipe off the airforce and navy of Taiwan, Taiwan will surrender, they can’t afford to loose 25 million lives of their citizens due to the super high population density.
Japan and the US must help in the defense of Taiwan.
What about Canada?
@@cashewnuttel9054 it goes without mentioning.
Canada doesn’t really have a military
Unless US lift the treaty, Japan can't attack China even if it's to help Taiwan.
@@cashewnuttel9054 wtf has Canada ever done
The real question should be if the US population are willing to go in a war with China and are willing to loose countless people in the war?
The US has become the most warlike country in the last century or so.
You really don't understand the American payche.
Many Americans are already calling for a war against China now..not even in some distant point in the future.
The real question is, Does the Chinese population at large (not the CCP) willing to lose tens of millions of their people in a war against the US?
Jorge the Chinese would get slaughtered in this hypothetical war.
Yes. Yes we are.
No more appeasement.
@@0816M3RC how?? why do people assume that us/nato have infinite supply of ammunitions lmao, bud ukraine is draining your supply reserve and bullets/shells dont grow on trees. dont forget us has a influx of military age male migrants.
The thing to note about direct military spending comparisons is they don't take into account what is being payed for. Taiwan only has to worry about preparing for a Chinese invasion for the most part while China has to make an army that can be useful for the various border disputes it has with its neighbours along with trying to secure the south china sea.
Granted Taiwan could probably do w/ focusing more on making any potential invasion painful via being able to continue an insurgency if an amphibious assault does succeed, but that's neither here nor there.
I think you'll find weapons designed to blow up one thing can also blow up other things.
And good luck running an insurgency on a small island with hundreds of drones overhead plus a dozen balloons running AI target tracking.
China does not "have to" secure the South Sea it is an aggressive choice. They can also be good neighbors to countries rather than conquering them like Tibet, Uzbeikistan, Mongolia, Manchuria, etc.
@@RonWagner They kinda can't though, nationalism is a crutch the government uses to deflect from internal issues.
Effectively a line of credit they can't simply choose to not pay back.
That being said they have been more buddy buddy with central Asia ever since Russia started the process of ritual disembowlment it refuses to cease
who the hell cares?
we are not gonna bleed if China takes back their property.
Taiwan is not ours.
n
As always, the easiest war to win is the one which doesn't happen; the one you prevent. So to prevent this one, the US and its allies must drive up the cost to China to such a degree that it will not even consider such a thing.
You do this three ways - 1) By building military capacity in the region to an unprecedented level, 2) de-coupling from China as much as possible, as quickly as possible and 3) carving away their allies, one by one.
You out-gun it militarily, starve it economically and isolate it diplomatically. Wars cost a lot of money and China's economic position is already precarious enough and it also has a well earned reputation as a regional and global diplomatic bully; two areas which the west can exploit. They've so far not been especially good at it; dear old Uncle Sam has not always been known for his own soft touch either but they can do it if they put the effort in.
You are right, but it may not be possible. China is probably going to need an external conflict in order to avoid an internal revolution, because their demographics indicate that their economy cannot sustain itself.
This plan cannot work. Imagine that you succeed. Taiwan declares independence, and China is so cowed, they do nothing. Victory !!! Then 5 years later an isolationist POTUS is elected. China attacks Taiwan, captures it in a month, because help doesn't come. The US does not respond. Next election cycle 3 years after that, he loses the election.
What are you gonna do? Start a new war to recapture the island? Remember that 90% of the population was lost in the first war. Dead, fled to other countries, or relocated by China to other parts of their country. The island now have a pro-PRC majority. Even if you could win back the island, it would be even more devastated after another war, and who are you going to settle there? The island is just 100 miles from China. You win it, they're just going to take it back in a couple of years. It isn't defensible in the long term.
A proper stable solution would be to relocate Taiwan to somewhere else. I suggest that they buy an island somewhere else and move the country there. Just let China have Taiwan. The purchase can be financed by selling land in Taiwan to people in the PRC. This would be a negotiated settlement to the Chinese civil war, with both sides working cooperatively to a final resolution.
We don't really know what China's Economic Position is, but we know ours. We're up to our ears in Debt. And China is successfully using Tik Tok to teach our Sons to have 7 second attention spans, and our Daughters that dancing like a stripper doesn't count if it's only for 7 seconds. Meanwhile they're using their own version of Tik Tok to teach their people that the CCP is Faultless, the West is Depraved and Evil, and whipping up Nationalist Fervour that Taiwan is rightfully theirs. Build our own Semi-Conductor Factories, and let them have Taiwan. Then let them get into as much Debt as we're all in trying to maintain that massive Military...
The best way to win a war is to do so without fighting
the ultimate victory
China has always said they want a peaceful unification with Taiwan. Meanwhile US has done nothing but talk about war.
China's other related vulnerabilities are numerous. Their energy and trade sea routes are vulnerable to India with whom they have border disputes. Straits of Malacca choke point. For a country so dependent on freedom of navigation, their intent to destabilize the current order seems to pander to domestic and conservative military emotions rather than hard logic. Perhaps China will find their hands full with trying to build a rail and road link to European markets through some of the most unstable countries on earth.
My inddian Navy is a j0ke. We d0nt have en0ugh warships to do bl0ckade. Our Soviet era ships are outdated and we d0nt want t0 get hammered by china fr0m the n0rth again.
Nope... China can directly enter Indian ocean through Pakistan occupied kashmir...
Pakistan doesn't have a border with China but pakistan occupied kashmir gives them direct access... People need to understand the significance of kashmir...
If India takes kashmir which is occupied by Pakistan, they get road transit to Russia which means India dominates Russian market which is currently controlled by China...
Strait of Malacca is only good for stopping oil but with Russia/iran having no buyers thanks to USA sanctions.. China is buying it at a majority... Blocking Chinese trade will effect usa and Europe more than China itself...
This is the reason apple moving significant portion of their production to India...
Joe Biden/democrats are not smart compared to a business man like trump in this area... Trump knows China controls trade because they are dependent but joe Biden thinks they can hit Chinese economy with that dependency by removing all American companies from china... Thankfully China has not attacked Taiwan yet...
China runs $1 trillion a year in trade surplus, that should give you a clue to which side will have a shortage without trade.... which raises the question: for a country that runs $1 trillion sea-going trade deficit and already suffers record inflation, the US certainly seem eager to bite the hand that feeds them.
And no Strait of Malacca isn't a choke point, it's not the 19th century anymore, Chinese medium range hypersonics can cover the entire Indian ocean to the south and half of France to the west, China can import Russian oil while cutting off North America from Euroasia.
Indian wants war with China are Indian tried of living always talk of war with China
@@vlhc4642 See you really don't have a clue do you. That surplus trade is only because of western countries and businesses and so without that China's surplus goes away. China is nothing more then cheap labor and if this becomes a problem then we will find the next cheap market to deal with. Your dealings with Australia have shown that when you try to do something like that it hurts China more then it hurt Australia. You put bans on our products and so we just went and found other markets while China suffered.
China would have to pull off an amphibious invasion bigger then d-day and there is only a small seasonal window where that could take place. So it would be pretty obvious when they were coming. If they made it across the straight, the terrain of taiwan would make every beach landing far more difficult then the omaha beach landing. Even if they did get off the beaches, they would then have to have a mountain/jungle war across all of Taiwan. Omaha was so deadly because of cliffs, in taiwan theyre mountains. After the allies took the beachs on d-day the biggest thing that then slowed them down was hedge rows, in taiwan its jungles and mountains.
in reality china would just pound taiwan into submission until they give into political demands. taiwan could be sent back to the stone age by mainland bombardment and disease/starvation would take out a large chunk of the island's population.
It might sound cruel but this is how medieval sieges typically ended.
@@hughmungus2760 One problem...China wants to capture Taiwan mostly 'intact' due to their industry and also, it would heavily publicize...which is kind of bad. So yea, if they decide to go with massive bombardment...they would realistically be shooting themselves in the foot both short and long term.
To my fellow Filipinos, we need to make a choice. I would rather give Taiwan and the U. S. A a hand than to vow to that greedy communist prow.
While direct support from Japan and South Korea might be slow, the US has a semi-permanent base agreement with the Philippines. The Philippines is playing a poker game, due to its relatively weak armed forces, the rotational bases agreement will definitely help deter Chinese invasion coming from the Kaoshiong straight, south of Taiwan. Although, president Marcos said that the Philippines will not allow use of the bases for offensive attacks by the US, it will allow the US to use the northern bases as staging points for defense.
I think Japan will support Taiwan as much as it will be able to. Japan is going to change its constitution to establish an army + it remilitarizes fast 🇯🇵
The Philippines are making a mistake. I wonder how many of you think that China is just going to get bombed by America and not do anything back. You know that China will send ICBMs to the US mainland right? They will also send some to the Philippines and any place that has US military soldiers. You guys are crazy thinking China is weak. Lmao
The Philippines has a decent military
@@rayray196 not really. Decent for land self defense, but not sea, nor air.
@@KenMikaze enough to defeat the shining path and abu sayad lol
Invading Taiwan would be very costly for China. It would be very difficult for China to get troops on Taiwan without massive losses. Ukraine managed to repel Russia with a poorly trained and equipped military. Taiwan on the other hand has a large, well trained, and well equipped military. Not to mention China would end up like Russia, isolated, and sanctioned by the West causing their economy to retract significantly.
Western commentators make the mistake of thinking that China has to take the entire Island. It doesn't, as long as it is able to land its troops and create a military presence on the island it would have won.
Taiwan isn't Ukraine, and China isn't Russia.
Taiwan is the Donbas. A separatist region of the country, operating effectively beyond the control of the central government, claiming to be a separate country, but without international support. The central government is prevented from reclaiming control by force, because the breakaway region is being supported by another stronger country.
China is Ukraine, the US is Russia.
@@danielch6662 You got that bass ackwards. Taiwan is NOT the Donbas. For one, the Donbas has a land border with Russia. Taiwan does not.
Secondly, the Chinese military's tussles with the Indian military have shown that they are just as unruly and unprofessional as the Russian military.
@@davidford3115in real war, china will fight two front war with India on eastern front and US military on the western front.
@@ROTHSTEIN01 I hope so. But I don't think the Indians have been convinced to join that fight just yet. They have their own priorities to worry about which I entirely understand. The trick is, can the West convince India that it is in their best interest to join the battle?
The war would be about more than just Taiwan, democracy, or semiconductors, it would be about control of the South China Sea and whether we get to trade with Asia in general. Moreover, the Phillipines would also be at stake if Taiwan fell and that situation was to be left as is. I think this would be the biggest war most of us have ever seen in our times, and it would be inescapable. While the fair point was made that we would probably win in the short run, but be behind on re-arming ourselves in the future, the possibility that the CCP could be toppled internally following a failed war would be the best news by far.
A war would be unlimited and short. Once TSMC etc is destroyed, USA has zero chips to replace a 1st strike and cannot defend. USA has no defence against hyper sonic, and has no hyper sonic. The Navy is floating ducks, easily sunk. The only real threat is the submarines, and these are trackable and can be countered before they launch. As the USA attempts a 1st strike, China will strike the US mainland. Once amurcunts see their cities vapourised, they may realise war means the world destruction. The majority of people on the planet want the planet to continue, so the amurcunts will revolt and sue for peace before they are too late.
copium
"If South Vietnam falls to communism, then its all over"
Guess what? Taiwan's democrazy is actually a good example to mainland Chinese that do not put public decisions to unprofessional uneducated votes.
菲律賓為什麼不歸還中華民國在南海的島嶼呢？
The US and its allies will defend Taiwan because it is in their interest to do so. However, the Taiwanese people needs to rely on themselves for their own defence. Ukraine shows what happens when its people will not give up, it is up to the people of Taiwan to decide if their freedom is valuable enough to fight for.
If Taiwan is unfortunately occupied by Red China then entire Pacific Ocean will be in great dangers for sure.
Russia wouldn't be able to take advantage of the US's weakened state in the aftermath of this war due to their failure in Ukraine. Plus, wouldn't an attack on US navy, or US navy bases be seen as an attack on NATO?
The US federal government cartel attacked a German pipe line, a article 5 attack and NATO went all ssssshhhh
NATO is nothing without the U.S. And the current CIC of the U.S. Armed Forces is quite incompetent.
17:00 this stuff about china's fleet size is always garbage, they are counting every llike little "maritime vessel" and canoe as a major military ship. the amount of ships in your flee it unimportant to what the ships can do. 300 ships made for smashing small filipino fishing vessels from their own territory, arent gonna like... overwhelm a carrier strike group.
many of these little boats carry half a dozen or more antiship missiles which are as deadly as a much larger vessel against any surface ship.
In littoral waters like around taiwan, smaller ships actually perform better because they can hide in the shallows and get closer to the shores.
What are the chances of going nuclear if the US bombs china's huge coastal cities?
Typical American attitude. Bigger is better. When in fact, more is better.
what did I just watch? bro you sure Taiwan is that weak?
Hey VisualPolitik team, protip: If there's any "x" in a Chinese name, if its before an "i" its pronounced as an "s", e.g. "Xi" or "Xin", if its before a "u" its pronounced like "sh", e.g. "Xue" or "Xu"
About the only thing I agree with this video is that it all starts with Taiwan being armed to the teeth and its people willing to resist for as long as it takes. Taiwan's survival depend on those things only and not so much American support or assistance in the opening hours, days and perhaps even weeks after opening hostilities. Under the best of circumstances, it's hard to believe that US military would be stationed in force on the island helping to actively defend. No, Taiwan in the beginning would have to be on its own operating defense systems, mobilizing and responding to attacks by the PLA.
Some of numerous things I disagree with this video...
The conclusions of the CSIS wargaming which I suspect was skewed to produce results for political gain. The only scenarios the US would suffer large numbers would be if the US rushed in recklessly to attack China without regard to its own health. The US military has never in its history (except cases in Vietnam) displayed poor military judgement. There are maybe individual incidents the US military has suffered losses like in Somalia and Afghanistan, but never for reasons of faulty doctrine which would result in the numbers the CSIS wargames suggest. And for good reason, the US has a number of battlefield advantages that would ensure success without extensive loss including China's inability to detect US strategic bombers, the inferiority of the J-20 vs the F-22, the superior investment of the US in training a volunteer military vs China's largely conscripted, untrained forces, China's lack of technology including fanjet engines.
In particular, the Chinese only a year ago started implementing its own indigenous fanjet engine in the J-10, and another a couple weeks ago in the J-20. As first generation engines, it's unlikely that those engines have anywhere close to the combination of performance and serviceability of American aircraft. Once could almost expect that after a week of wartime tempo, the PLAAF would be flying only 20% of their aircraft at a time while American aircraft should be flying up to 80% of the time in theater. That goes a long ways towards evening out any suggested inferiority of numbers of American aircraft, much less taking into account tech superiorities.
Speaking of aircraft, I think it's also telling that Taiwan is flying only F-16 tactical fighter aircraft and not the F-35 or even the F-15. Taiwan is expected to receive new deliveries of the latest version of the F-16 V late 2024 which should keep Taiwan's aircraft's technological edge over the PLAAF.
Air cover for both the PLA and Taiwan is important, but this video also does not clearly what kind of conflict Taiwan is supposed to defend itself against... Merely an attack inflicting destruction or an actual invasion? If an attack only, there's probably little Taiwan can do but survive the onslaught. Should China attack Taiwan, you'd think unlike Russia that China will be well stocked with missiles that can do enormous damage and hit targets accurately. But it's unlikely that China would ever be able to build an invading capability. It should be noted that if China attempted an amphibious landing by crossing the Taiwan Strait in surface ships, traversing the Strait under ideal weather conditions would still take about 3 hours. That's a long time to be vulnerable to fire and Taiwan could actually wait until the amphibious transport was barely off the beaches before sinking them. It makes little difference when amphibious transport is sunk, they just can't be allowed to make landfall. Any attempt by helicopter would require aircraft China doesn't have in quantity and doesn't know how to manufacture. An enormous helicopter fleet would have to be purchased from Russia and personnel trained to operate and support. An air drop would require air superiority or domination and extensive training. Additionally, any landing would require a large enough force to take an airfield or port to bring in heavier military equipment. Any successful invasion at first would be limited to what they can carry until a port or airfield can be captured and until then would be met with ground forces, artillery and Abrams.
Bottom line is that invading an island like Taiwan would never be an easy task even if highly skilled, trained and equipped, and the PLA isn't any of that today or for several years. If the PLA is seen to actually be doing things that threaten Taiwan or US military supremacy, then unless Taiwan and the US are asleep they will respond appropriately so that the PLA will always be disadvantaged.
為什麼美國不直接駐軍台灣並宣布納入核保護傘，如果中國入侵台灣就對中國核打擊
You raise a lot of fair points, and present them in a cogent way, but I will say one thing: Taiwan will not have long to wait for meaningful U.S. support .. because the U.S. is already there, and I'm not talking about just some ground forces (or anything else stationed on the island) either. The USA is a Pacific power, and whether Beijing likes it or not, it is there to stay.
@@rgohoo 戰略外交
2:30 Taiwan does not need to declare independance, here's why. Consider that the relationship between the US and the UK is analogous to that of China and Taiwan. In 1776, the United States declared its independence from the UK, marking the culmination of a revolutionary war. Similarly, in 1949, China declared its independence from Taiwan, ending their civil war. In both instances, the larger, younger country-China and the United States-separated from an older, already independent island nation-Taiwan and the UK, respectively.
The idea of a country already independent-such as the UK or Taiwan-declaring independence again is incongruous. Just as it is accepted that the UK doesn't need to declare independence from the USA, Taiwan should not need to declare independence from China, because both island nations were already recognized as independent entities when the younger countries separated. The scenario of the United States asserting that the UK belongs to it, or the idea of Taiwan "reunifying" with China, appears just as absurd to the Taiwanese. It's akin to the idea of the UK "reunifying" with the USA, a notion most would consider ridiculous.
This parallelism extends beyond just the political, with linguistic similarities further supporting the analogy. The differences between Taiwanese Mandarin and Chinese Mandarin are reminiscent of the variances between British English and American English. In each case, a local speaker can readily identify whether someone is Chinese or Taiwanese, or British or American, by the initial utterances made.
By examining these historical, political, and linguistic aspects, we gain a deeper truth, fostering a more comprehensive perspective.
then why does taiwan still call itself the ‘republic of china?’
@@user-uh5bx1zg7b If you actually read what I wrote, you would know It is the same answer as "then why does Britain still call itself the ‘UK?’", imagine if the USA named itself 'New UK' when it declared independence, should the original UK change its name?
I get what you’re saying but it’s not quite the same. The US declared independence from Britain but the CCP’s China didn’t declare independence from Taiwan’s China, they had a revolution to become the new ruling party of China and essentially succeeded. Essentially Taiwan is what’s left of the former ruling power in a civil war that basically had a cease fire and never really concluded. Only time will tell how it ends.
Jesus, look at your argument, you think it is logical?! everyone on earth acknowledges UK as an independent country, how many acknowledge Taiwan?!
@@tianxiabai1185 That means jack shit. If every nation in the world today stopped recognizing the US as a nation what would that mean? Nothing. The US would go on doing business as usual. Just like how Taiwan has been. As long as China can't physically take Taiwan, not a single nation has to recognize Taiwan. Taiwan just has to recognize its own government. Nothing stops them from being a nation. And if China starts a war, not only will it hurt because of Taiwan defending itself but even if it manages to win the powers of the world will economically f*** with China until it is desolate over however many years it takes. I'm just glad Russia kick started all this by invading Ukraine. LOL even Xi wasn't expecting this cause Putin lied to him about it.
If Taiwan faces China alone, they would likely lose the initial conflict while inflicting heavy losses on China making China's best-case scenario a pyhrric victory. Holding the island would be difficult for China given the local resistance they would face. And the combination of the initial and long-term conflicts would likely destroy anything of strategic value in Taiwan rendering such a "victory" purely symbolic.
Now add in the costs of economic sanctions, the political fall-out with China's neighbors, and it becomes clear that the US military involvement is not required to forge an adequate deterrent to war. Adding in US military support, as well as that of Japan, South Korea and likely one or more defense coalitions in the Pacific and SE Asia and it becomes clear that China cannot win such a war. Attempting to blockade the island without declaring war or taking direct military action against the island as a means of coercion is a far more likely scenario. It's a dangerous game of chicken, but it's one in which China might win concessions it could not get by peace or by war.
Never understood the whole independence thing.
We Taiwanese people are ROC citizens.
We have been independent since 1911.
So what’s all this independence rubbish? 😂
Always wanted to visit Taiwan
If this escalates, the trip might be free, but mandatory. 😅
Taiwan is a beautiful country, lovely friendly people & so much to see & do 🏞️🥟🍱🍜🌃🇹🇼🇹🇼
@@itinnyi Yeah sadly hopefully cooler heads will prevail.
Taiwan has two great assets. It is an island, it is extremely mountainous. It is effectively a fortress surrounded by a moat. Switzerland just has mountains, but it has effectively deterred invasions. In the 19th and 20th century, it has used the "stratégie du réduit national" (national redoubt) by turning it's mountains into a fortress to run to and fight from in case of invasion. In 1939, Switzerland fortified the Alps, trained it's troops to fight in the mountains, prepared to evacuate the plains (critical industry, population, military forces) towards the mountains in case of attack. Bridges and tunnels were rigged to explode cutting access to invaders (Nazi Germany).
Taiwan should take inspiration from Switzerland, use the hedgehog strategy of deterrence. You can try to invade, but the costs will be so high so as not to make it worthwhile.
Taiwan is way ahead of Switzerland
@@ROTHSTEIN01 Really? I disagree. Swits ahead of Taiwan in this defence terms
@@lapislazuli5451 what ?
@@ROTHSTEIN01 yes, I mean it
yeah the US said FUCK THAT during ww2 when they had complete sea and air domination. That island is giant fortress. They would need DDAY times 10 to take it.
Thank you. I think VP's analysis overlooks an important factor which every other analysis I've read overlooks: Taiwan is MUCH more useful to the Communist Party as a break-away province. Taiwan is the raison d'être for the existence of the Party. It is very similar to playing a high level chess game. The threat is often more useful than the attack. You heard it here first.
Absolutely agree. The CCP uses the situation to drum up mainland nationalism more than anything else; the threats and vows over Taiwan are the rhetoric that the CCP would prefer to use indefinitely if they have to...after all this has been the status quo for over half a century...why sabotage a valuable propaganda tool with a war?
CCP does not have competition lol.. They need no political drama like in the democrazy countries.
The political situations of Vietnam, Korea and China were basically the same back in the 50s to 60s. The difference though, is that in Vietnam, the north finally managed to unify the south despite resistance(with millions killed). In Korea a reunion wasn’t achieved(the US didn’t face much domestic backlash as in the Vietnam war). In China though, both Chinas are doing well now, but for the mainland a reunion is the ultimate goal, it’s about a nation’s pride. You can accuse that it’s brainwashing nationalism and democracy should be respected. But I guess that indict applies to the north Vietnam as well, nationalism is what these country survives on, after being teared up by colonial powers over and over in past centuries.
If i was Chinese, I'd probably feel the same way. However I'm not. The difference between Korea and Vietnam and China is that North Korea and North Vietnam were not striving with the USA for world domination and to impose their totalitarian form of government on the rest of the world. Their power was always just going to be regional at best. China is striving for nothing less than to overturn the the Western world order, led by the USA, and put their own system in place.
USA support the totalitarian form of government.
Godbless Petnam
We have learned a lot from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (1) Whatever your ammunition and supply levels, they are not enough, (2) Logistics is critical in modern warfare. Ukraine and the west are doing this well, Russia is not, (3) High tech weapons like HYMARS cannot be produced fast enough to replace those used in battle. Hopefully this is being addressed by our military leaders.
The military cost of an actual invasion on the US & Japan would be high, but if China actually tried to send ships filled with troops to invade Taiwan, the Chinese losses would be horrendous and potentially could cause the CCP huge problems at home, especially if they were unsuccessful. The world economy runs on Taiwanese computer chips, and a war would probably cause a global recession. If the chip production facilities were destroyed in Taiwan, either by Chinese attacks or deliberate Taiwanese destruction if it looked like China was going to win, China would be forced to buy these chips from the only other countries that can make them: US, South Korea and Japan, its three opponents in this invasion. An attack on US bases and military would result in a complete blockade of any ships going to China or leaving Chinese ports, something that geography makes ridiculously easy since shipping must pass through narrow gaps between the island chains surrounding China. The US and others (including Taiwan) are looking at increasing production outside of Taiwan to mitigate somewhat the disaster the loss of high-end chips would cause if China attempted an invasion or blockade.
This doesn't mean that there will not be an invasion. If the proper intelligence had been available to Putin and logic had been used, he would have either not invaded at all or used a much larger military force from the start, before Ukraine was armed like it is today by the west. Both China and Russia have dictators in charge who may be insulated from realities on the ground, surrounded by "yes" men who tell Putin/Xi what they want to hear.
I'm not an expert in anything, but I learned from reading your stuff that it's a great strength to live in reality, and a weakness to be delusional. I will take comfort in that.
While the map showing how close Ukraine's supporters to do contrast, one must also consider the fact that Ukraine has a flat land border and Taiwan has 100 miles of ocean. Another big factor is that landing and trying to make a beach head would be complicated, as there are only a few places on the island big enough for China to land such a force.
Oh, and the weather. Even for D-Day, Eisenhower and his team were watching the weather closely when trying to decide when to move. The English Channel is not only much smaller than the Taiwan Straight, but it also gets typhoons between May and October. Mother Nature could really screw up logistics, communications and cause China to dump a bunch of seasick, soaked soldiers on the island (if they were lucky enough to survive the trip).
I sincerely hope all of this is just speculation and hypothesis, as such an event would just be horrible. The "One China" policy agreed to by the US and most of the world recognizes "one China" but I hope that cooler heads prevail and we collectively push both sides to search for a diplomatic solution. It might seem impossible, but it's definitely better than the alternative.
I don't think you will see an invasion, more likely a blockade with consessions on sovereignity and trade demaded.
Your mistake is to assume that China will have to make a successful amphibious landing to win a war with Taiwan. They can just take a leaf from Israel's books and bombard Taiwan until they surrender. Taiwan's geography works against them. There is nowhere to hide. China could expend 50% of their accumulated munitions on the island, and at the end of it there would be nothing bigger than a grapefruit left on the island. Or they can bombard on alternate weeks, with every other week being a ceasefire to allow civilians and/or military personnel to evacuate. Once everybody leaves, they drop a flag from a plane and "reclaim" the island. Nobody need to step foot on the island. That would be a useful thing if it is a nuclear wasteland by that point.
During WWII, USA did not dare to land on Formosa and the Pescadores. Instead, the US fleets hopped onto Okinawa.
True enough. Furthermore as far as I understand it the west coast of Taiwan has very shallow waters leading to only a few places (big)ships can actually land their supplies. So tricky easy to hit logistics. Doing an amphibious landing, probably the most complex millitairy operation, with a de facto green army is rather optimistic. You can train all you like and have an army that looks great on parades but you only will see the 'real' army in combat. How much operational combat experience has china? Eeehm, zero? Furthermore China is extremely vulnerable to blockades as it imports a lot of stuff it really needs ( e.g. food, 60-70%). Now Xi is not the brightest light bulb on the eastern hemisphere so stupid actions are allways an option.
@bctvanw I didn't know that but it doesn't surprise me. I do know the Americans bombed the island a few times. A landing would have been tough.
No US war inversion have been successful and the Taiwan situation would be no different. US major concern is its interest in the semiconductor not Taiwan. Hope Taiwan reach consensus with China.
One things for sure, those who have profited on war and destruction will win. That’s why there won’t be a war. Brothers of the same family don’t need no bully to force them to fight each other.
I believe the key is to have enough missile systems (especially anti-ship) to make an invasion so costly that China will not be willing to pay that cost. Fighter jets and ground forces are great if they land but the point is not to let that happen. If enough ships and personnel are lost during the trip across the straight perhaps the Chinese people will pressure Ping and his cronies to call it quits. Then again, if the people are as radical as the Japanese in WW2, Taiwan may be screwed.
It’s not gonna end like how US withdrawal from Vietnam due to public outcry, it is not how china roll.
That's kind of what they're doing already, Taiwan has a ton of missile capacity already and is investing even more.
China hasn’t done anything rash to Taiwan in 70 years other than exchanging artillery fire with islands close to the Chinese mainland. This invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese is highly unlikely. China would more likely try a blockade of Taiwan which even then might not be successful.
US Navy would just bomb the hell out of close Chinese Cities and that would be that. China stands literally no chance against US Navy and Airforce if we decide to go total war on them. The CCP knows this. So they will probably never go so far. All their major cities right there on the coast. I think people don't realize how much stuff the US has in Asia. Two Biggest Straits in the World are Malacca and Sinai. The USA has military bases and fleets surrounding both. We owned Philippines. Took over Japan. Defended South Korea against the Communists. We have 30k troops SK. More in the latter countries. Our current force in Asia is likely stronger then China all ready. Beijing can literally be targeted from Japan. CCP won't do anything.
@@Dept246 I agree I doubt they attempt an invasion; a Taiwan invasion
would make what is happening in Ukraine look like a skirmish.
The shortsightedness of this video is the thought that this would be a direct conflict. It would not. The US would simply need to slow down any attempt to land on Taiwan while they get a blockade in place to starve China into compliance. That can be done from a safe distance with standoff weapons currently in their arsenal as well as those in development like the Rapid Dragon. Amphibious landings are not easy endeavors and simply hitting the key launching points and landing ships as they try to do this is all that is required to allow Taiwanese Forces to repel any remaining Chinese efforts. After that it is just a case of willpower and the ability of the USA and her Allies to hold the blockades that will be the real weapon in this conflict.
One huge strategic weakness China has that is often ignored is food and water. In addition to China's inability to provide fully for their energy needs, they are also not food independent. They even rely on having to buy farmland in the USA and other nations to secure crop harvests for their own market. This is why while many nations are concerned about an oil reserve, China has a huge grain reserve. Despite this they do not have more than 6 months on starvation rations in these reserves for their massive population if a blockade is put in place. The B&RI is not enough to compensate for this shortfall as most of the food markets they are developing are overseas routes. Even the land routes are roads and not rail, making the importation of oil and gas and even grains by road a vastly slower process than by sea. Within 6 months China would be in severe distress and there is no way it could last a year with this type of blockade in place. China's Navy is not a true Blue Water Navy. Her Diesel powered Carriers need too much logistical support to operate far from China's shores as is the case with most of China's ships. Their Navy would be vulnerable to all US military once it left the confines of China's heavily protected shores.
China is prepping for the food issue, but in a very short sighted and detrimental way. There are reports from China that farmlands of non-shelve stable crops are being converted to produce long term storable crops such as grains and rice. However, they are doing so without considering any agricultural science. Farmers are forced to destroy crops, nearly but not ready to harvest, to plant grains and rice immediately. The stupid thing is many of these farmlands can't support these types of crops. Some are too dry, some needs a season or two convert soil type. Even part of the Great Green Wall preventing desertification in the North is also being chopped down to turn into farmlands, but long term, it might make more land unusable for farming. Invasion or not, there could be sharp raise in food prices in the near future that would throw a wrench into long term plans.
@@ArchOfWinter Maybe this is part of the CCP's twisted plan to solve multiple issues at once if they fail to secure Taiwan and have to endure a long embargo/blockade. They get starve a large segment of their population - (mostly the poor, ill, and elderly who tend to suffer most in these types of man-made disasters) - reducing both current and future pressure on their social services. And they get to blame it all on the Evil Western society, specifically the Imperialist USA.
taiwan;s ability to withstand a protracted blockade is Far weaker than china. at least china has land routes to Russia and central asia for some of its energy needs and it does have enough food production at home to be self sufficient if it rationed the consumption of meat.
This is so wrong. China is importing more food yes in terms of value. This is expensive foods that dont give alot of calories. In terms of calories they produce more than enough to survive. This is 2023 and not 1914. It is true that they import oil but that is all the energy they need to import. They dont use natural gas. They have alot of coal and can import oil from Russia. They also produce more electricity then US, EU and India combined and 35% of car sales in china are now electric and will soon be 100%. in 10 years they dont need to import oil.
@@steffengustavsen9678 That makes so much sense...it costs more elsewhere so lets buy that? Be real. If they don't need to import grains then they wouldn't be doing it. Grains are easy to store unlike other agricultural products that are seasonal like fruits and vegetables. In the USA we import a lot of fruits and vegetables from South America in the fall and winter but not grains because we have more than enough in storage. Yet China has actually purchased farmland in the USA to secure grain crops for themselves and it is because they can't produce enough or they would have no reason to.
As far as oil consumption goes... for vehicles you may be right but not for the reasons you think. People will not be buying as many vehicles nor driving them.
People in China are losing their source of income as investments leave China and foreign manufacturing cuts back because of tech bans (look at the empty shipping containers stacked up at the docks). This economic shortfall will have a big impact as this was a huge driving force in China's growth. Even if you tried to say it was just 5% of the economy, the impact of losing that would be catastrophic as that loss would affect all the service industries and supported jobs that result from an employed population. That also reduces tax revenues and impacts other segments of society.
As for the ability of electric vehicles to simply replace gas vehicles, you may need to look at the source of electricity in China. They still rely on a lot of coal, 55% of their energy consumption is produced by it and they don't have enough and need to import it from every place they can. In fact their imports of coal from the USA went up when Australia put an embargo on coal exports to China.
So while it is possible they could live without the fuel for cars, it would not be because electricity is magically being produced. They still have to charge EV batteries. And since those cars would then need electricity to run - the electrical grid demands would increase dramatically. Where do you think that will come from?
As for the source of the rest of their energy, in 2021, in addition to the 55% from coal - 8% is from hydroelectric (and they have the largest hydro production in the world), 28% is from gas (9%) and oil (19%), wind and other renewables 7%, and nuclear being 2% Note: the exact figures vary likely because China's sources are inconsistent. I used Cleantechgrid .com's figures as they seemed to be an average.
China will be isolated. They will lose the war.
Asian nato will exist just as it does in Europe. The only difference is this time it’s china instead of Russia.
A: No-one would win, different sides might lose by differing amounts.
There are always winners in wars and the winners are the ones who didn't surrender.
@@cashewnuttel9054 you are incorrect, no war has ever had a winner.
What you think of as a winner is just the one deemed to have the lowest net loss.
@@Craznar The Allies won WW2. The European colonizers won their wars of conquest against the natives of their colonies. The natives of colonies won their war for independence. South Korea sort of won their war against the North. CCP won their war against the Nationalists. The USA won their war against Mexico. Vietnam won their war against the USA. The Romans won their wars of conquest for a time to able to build their empire.
There are a lot of instances where there are clear winners in war.
And if you don't like war then you might as well exterminate the human race or keep its population to an absolute possible minimum because for as long as humans are around or are around in large numbers, there will always be wars because of something called human nature.
@@cashewnuttel9054 WW2 : Allies 61 million dead, Axis 12 million dead, Russia 20 million dead.
SO yeah, The Allies didn't win ...
@@yuyoshida2076 I said they "sort of won". They won prosperity, a functioning government, and they are not suffering like many third world countries.
Isn't that "sort of a win"?
Am I the only one who worries about the fishes in the south china sea? I mean they are so innocent and yet will suffer the most in case of a military conflict..
China is already overfishing the area now, and they don't even have a solid claim of the area.
You're so wrong. Like Yu says, the fish industries will suffer. THAT will be GOOD for the 🐟🐠🐡
Over the last 70 years America has fought to a draw in Korea, started and lost wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan (none of whom had threatened America). They replaced elected governments with military dictatorships for commercial reasons in Iran (1953 - Mohammad Mosaddegh wanted to control Iran's oil), Guatemala (1954 - United Fruit didn't like Jacobo Árbenz land reforms), Vietnam (1956 - blocked elections mandated by the Geneva Accord after the defeat of the French because Ho Chi Minh was going to win), Chile (1973 - Salvador Allende threatened copper mining profit), Haiti (Jean-Bertrand Aristide deposed twice - 1991, 2004).
It can't be understated that China can't take those losses compared to the U.S. especially Taiwan. China has a problem with old people. A war where the young go and fight would be devastating for the long run. Also would most likely be the downfall of the CCP with or without a conquered Taiwan. But your point on other powers using the war to their benefit is extremely likely. 🤔 great vid
@0:57 The White House (whoever that is) later corrected the President on that answer.
😂😂
Yeah, kinda embarrassing when you are refuted and corrected, as a president, by your own staff eh?
All I'm going to say is supply chains. Atm the usa holds upper hand over china due to china's needs mainly coming through the sea. If Russia had pivoted over the last 8-9 years to do pipe lines for gas and crude to China instead China as we soak would be in a vastly different position and the supply lines issue would turn to the usa when talking about the ability to project power to forces at Taiwan. Yes I know oil and gas isn't the only supply issue for China but its the main one they would face in terms of sections or a embargo as you know the usa and their allies wouldn't be able to halt stuff coming from Russia or central Asia which could act as 3rd party buyers for China for certain goods
Do you even realize that US are pretty much import most of their stuff especially from china? So i dont think that US have the upper hand of supply chain.
Plays right into the hands of Western powers if China invades Taiwan. A bigger threat to the western powers would be for taiwan and China to coexist (albeit with different ideology) and collaborate for mutual benefits.
The US army has seen action all over the world since the first gulf war. They're experienced. The Chinese aren't - mockups and statistics don't shoot back. As Tyson said, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". I'd expect the birthplace of Sun Tzu to know this, but Mao wanted to do away with tradition, so...
yet they didnt gain anything. experienced "all over the world" yea only the weak military countries. Moreover, you decieved tyson's qoutes.
@@davesiu680 so countries like Iraq, which was trained and armed by the USSR at its prime, and whose quick defeat had the soviets saying that the Americans could only be stopped by nukes, are weak. Got it. As for the Chinese, a few years ago, Chinese UN peacekeeper troops in Sudan were attacked, suffered two fatalities and abandoned their posts, leaving being equipment, ammunition and aid workers to be raped by the attackers.
And please elaborate, how am I "deceiving" that Tyson quote?
@@VorkKnightOfGood first of since the WW2 US has been waging wars with so many countries or should I say pulling the string behind the scenes wanting to take other countries resources, gaining power with the dollars and the benefits so your country could sustain it's economy. Second, China nor Russia doesn't have the motive to wage war or invading other countries like the US. Thrid, you are underestimating your enemies . Therefore, I am implying from Tyson's quotes it's the other way around.
Future war will not be fought with bullets, nukes, artillery, tanks, jets etc. anymore. They are already fighting in enconmic. Look at how many homeless people in the US each day. The US itself has multi trillion national debt and already in inflation. You think US can afford to send their military to fight other side of globe? That's why they letting other countries doing their dirty work.
@@davesiu680 "first of since the WW2 US has been waging wars with so many countries or should I say pulling the string behind the scenes wanting to take other countries resources"
So, according to you, the US are, at the same time, a master schemer working behind the curtains to get the cloudy, undefined term of "resources" but a terrible schemer because they're unable to do so and wage wars where they don't get "resources". Got it.
"gaining power with the dollars"
There's a reason to why foreign entities trust dollar or Euro instead of the ruble, yuan, real or rupee. It's related to trust. A corporation in China, Venezuela, Russia, etc, is at the whims of the tyrant in power. In European nations or the US, corporations have the expectation of law protecting them from unfair government takeovers. Look at the oil industry in Venezuela.
"and the benefits so your country could sustain it's economy."
What, exactly, do you assume my nation to be?
"Second, China nor Russia doesn't have the motive to wage war or invading other countries like the US."
The same China who helped North Korea and Vietnam invading their neighbours and is involved in border skirmishes with India? The same Russia who invaded Georgia and Ukraine? Peaceful nations indeed...
"Thrid, you are underestimating your enemies . "
Nah, China is, that was the whole point of my post. The US military has been involved in conflicts all over the world. The Chinese military has been involved in battles with mockups of US equipment. Same with al-qaeda - they thought the Americans were fat, effeminate, lazy and stupid, and look how well that turned out for them...
"Therefore, I am implying from Tyson's quotes it's the other way around."
Huh, no. it isn't. "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" is just another way of saying "no plan of operations can with any certainty reach beyond the first encounter with the enemy", which is a military truism. China is the one struting around, thinking they're the biggest cock in the henhouse. No different, in nature, to Medveded and Putin who, before the invasion of Ukraine, threatened with high energy prices and nukes, respectively. How is that working out for them?
"Future war will not be fought with bullets, nukes, artillery, tanks, jets etc. anymore. They are already fighting in enconmic. "
Since you bring it up, how is China economy doing? Oh, yeah, not very well. And there's a whole lot of Chinese reaching retirement age in the next decade. Those state pensions are going to be a pain to pay...
"Look at how many homeless people in the US each day."
Compared to what, exactly? Or am I supposed to look at homelessness in the US in a vacuum? Your argument makes no sense. ALL countries have homeless people. Should we compare homelessness in the US with homelessness in China?
"The US itself has multi trillion national debt and already in inflation."
US debt is around 130% of its GDP. China debt is around 250% of its GDP. China is doing worse in the metric YOU chose...
" You think US can afford to send their military to fight other side of globe? That's why they letting other countries doing their dirty work."
What "dirty work"? China won't invade Taiwan because they're afraid of the US response. Russia invaded Ukraine because... well, not even Putin knows why, apparently. First it was "muh NATO expansion", then it became "denazification" and "desatanization", now it is a "struggle for the survival of Russia". You have yet to make a single case of where and why the US is having someone else "doing their dirty work". All you did was to vomit a bunch of anti-US talking points with NOTHING to back them. The sort of people who would buy into your rhetoric are morons who already detest the US to begin with. No sane human being will look at what you wrote and think "yes, great, cogent points, backed by watertight logic and sources to back it up".
P.S.: since you mention "string pulling", who, exactly, was pulling the strings, backing, arming and supporting all those communist-based "revolutionary" movements that started civil wars all around the globe?
6:11 Taiwan army ain’t Playing, never seen tank units training to shoot target on water getting ready to fight off an amphibious invasion.
I think that a PaTO patterned similar to NATO buy with improvements could work well to deter Chinese conquest.
PATO means duck (the bird) in Filipino. The Philippines will just laugh while battling China in case of a Taiwan invasion.
Who's gonna join? The US, Australia, Japan, South Korea? You're not adding anyone who would already follow wherever the US leads. And you'll have a hard time getting anybody else to join. The US today have this awful reputation where everybody would think they're only signing up to become pawns of the US.
they tried that in the 70s. SEATO but it fell apart because all of asia has alot of petty disputes with each other and nobody likes each other enough to want to respond to someone elses security issues.
Sure it's been tried before. Back when there was no real threat to everyone's security. Just like Europe in the early 2000's NATO started to fizzle out because the USSR no longer posed an existential threat to everyone.
But Russia suddenly starts acting aggressively towards weaker neighbors and ask if a sudden there's legitimate need for NATO again.
Currently China poses a pretty severe threat towards many smaller neighbors where no threat existed before. Whether through damming of rivers to the point where downriver countries are facing drought like conditions, or whether through territorial expansion in the south China Sea or whether through outright conquest as is threatened in Taiwan, or whether just through trade/economic predatory behavior. There's one specific and major threat that no one or even two nations in the area could hope to stand up to.
@@calebbearup4282 again outside of some disputes of islands in the south china seas there is no real military threat to countries in asia from china. China has not shown any interest in invading anyone other that Taiwan and it has so many economic ties to many of the countries in the region, that any defense alliance against china would quickly fall apart to chinese lobbying and economic leverage.
Not to mention many of these countries have overlapping territorial claims on the south china seas as well. Meaning allies could every bit as likely go to war with each other over some islands vs going to war with china over said islands.
Why is there never any mention of the US and India cooperating in the event Taiwan is attacked. I know India is usually only interested in India, but perhaps they will be willing to learn that working with the US to confront China is really in their best interest. While India is not known for its military prowess, they can be a formidable force if properly led and encouraged.
India can open another front, don't forget India actually has Tibetans in her army
An outbreak of war between China and Taiwan would see China sink several US aircraft carriers.. which are armed with nuclear weapons.
Would an aircraft carrier just head to the bottom of the ocean without firing its nuclear warheads?
Why can't the two superpowers put their energies in win-win outcomes, instead of win-lose stratagems?
One to Beijing and one reply back to LA? at least I'm far away down under...
Taiwan needs to do more to provide for its own defense. They only recently changed their conscription law to one year of service. It takes a year to train an infantryman. This means that they'll be discharging them just after they achieve proficiency. They need to retain them for at least 4 years and build their training pipeline for 800-1000 men per week. They will need every soldier they can get their hands on when the battle starts. Also, defense spending needs to be doubled. Begin asymmetrical warfare training and positioning. Covert operations capabilities should be established on the mainland because it will be a target rich environment and vital to interfering with the invasion. Also, Taiwan should begin undermining the CCPs moral authority to rule. The Chinese people already distrust their government. The political attacks on the CCPs incompetence, corruption and illegitimacy should be early and often.
see taiwan;s intelligence capabilities are abysmal because the current pro-independence party is actively in conflict with the KMT which historically makes up much of the military and police forces on the island. Half the senior military officers would sooner see the PLA take over than be replaced by some 'pan green' political appointee flagrantly disregards the constitution of the ROC. For them the only thing worse than a commie is a treasonous secessionist.
China is also the last place you want to try covert ops because of its survailance state and incredibly efficient counterintelligence ops. Even the CIA gets its face torn off when they try to go into china.
I often wonder why they don't engage in the discussion of why only the Chinese People are incapable of becoming a free people. Taiwan has been very successful and is an excellent model of what China could be if they become a free nation. They need a Radio Free China effort!!!!
There is no catching up with China's enormous leap in defense. The disparity is too great by the population and productivity levels. Even the US is afraid. And forget about offensive covert operation. They are all CHINESE and much more likely Taiwan have been infiltrated with China's sleeper agents. They all better off having a peaceful reunification because the main enemy are the western nations who always want to divide growing nations to maintain their old imperialistic hegemony.
@@dennishassler605 Because chinese people already believe they are free. Free from western imperialism and to determine their own national destiny.
Despite what you might think chinese people do get news from outside of china and they see the freakshows in so called 'free' countries. Nobody wants to see the chaos you have in the US or Europe on chinese streets or watch western backed puppets turn their countries into warzones.
The political attacks on the CCPs incompetence, corruption and illegitimacy should be early and often.
As a Chinese, I don't see that
Ah yes the kyiv for three days simulations.
I would like to see a war game where the US and its allies do not directly support Taiwan in an invasion, but simply systematically disrupt Chinese access to shipping. The large Chinese navy remains a coastal navy. I believe the most effective approach is unilateral assured economic destruction. Simply prevent raw materials and food from arriving and manufactured goods from departing by sea. China is absolutely dependent on international sea commerce. The US is not. By forcing the Chinese to come to them to prevent interruption of their shipping, the US can neutralize the logistic advantage of China in a Taiwan conflict. Simply starve them of resources until they give up Taiwan.
那就直接打美国，你不让你别人有活路，你还想活你以为你是你是？不能死？哈哈😆
Two points: 1) The Strait between Luzon and Taiwan is vital for World trade, making US/Japanese/UK/Australian/Philippine intervention mandatory, and 2) China imports the majority of its petroleum and food, so closing the Strait of Molucca would significantly cripple Chinese capabilities.
Those same think tanks said Ukraine will fall in days. They also said the USA can't win a ground war with Russia in Europe but it has been handily disproved. Until China proves itself on the battlefield all of this is just showmanship. Can China rally from losing a great battle against a peer power. They haven't done that in modern China. Almost all their rivals including Russia can say they have done that.
Anyone with even a passing knowledge of military strategy and operations would say that Russia should have conquered Ukraine in days.
Russia had all the advantages.
Russia could choose the time, place and method for initiating hostilities.
Russia could take its time collecting as much information and data before initiating hostilities, in fact from the Crimea "little green soldiers"" in 2014, Russia had 8 years to do practically anything it wanted to prepare for invading Ukraine.
From the beginning, Russia has had approx 10:1 advantage in numbers of everything... troops, artillery, tanks, aircraft. Some a little less than that but many including the artillery at least 15:1.
Putin's misadventure failed miserably because of incompetence and misunderstanding the people of Ukraine, that they wouldn't want to be a part of Mother Russia.
Joel... you don't make sense. Let me school you really quick. The weapons being used in Ukraine by Russia and Ukraine doesn't even compare to what China has. This war between China and Taiwan or China and America will be a modern war. This war will be a war which will be won by how many aircraft, ships, submarines, drones, rockets, ICBMs and satellites the two fighting will have. If America or Taiwan has more of these assets than China, they will win the war against China.
When America bomb's China, best believe China will send ICBMs to the US mainland, Guam, Philippines Japan and south Korea.
china pushed back the newly formed NATO and a host of other countries to the 38th parallel in Korea in the 50s using WW2 handmedowns because it believed the US and allies would eventually invade them.
Over an existential issue like taiwan, the result would be the same.
The problem with simulations is that it assumes that China isn't lying about its military capability as much as Russia was before it invaded Ukraine
As for the comments about fleet size, I always hate it when these videos talk about how many ships that China has
But they almost always fail to break down what China has
It has 3 aircraft carriers currently and they want 6 in total
However, all 3 carriers are diesel and not nuclear
Limiting their effective range, since China has pretty much no open sea resupply vessels
It isn't that hard to find an aircraft carrier if it has to return to port every 2 weeks to refuel
Most of the rest of China's fleet is smaller corvette's and the like
They have been working on increasing their amphibious landing craft
Mostly because an attacking army needs 3 times as many troops as the defenders and right now they can not land as many troops in Taiwan as Taiwan has in troops
Thus, any landing force would require massive naval and air support or risk being wiped out before a second round of landings could be initiated
Remember if you put a row boat into the ocean it does count a hull in the water when counting ships
That doesn't mean that it is going to be effective in a battle
I'd also point out that the reason that China got so upset with the United States selling nuclear submarines to Australia is because none of their subs are nuclear powered either
Then there is the matter of experience
The last time China took part in a naval battle ships still had sails
I don't think they have experienced air combat since WWII
Firebombing a village without any anti-aircraft capabilities doesn't count
Also, their 5th generation aircraft are garbage that they can't even get their allies to buy because it only has a stealth profile if you are facing it head on
Now, even with all that in mind
The simulations all end with China losing
They just differ on how much the United States would lose in such a conflict
Yeah china will lose because it can't fight two front war with India on eastern side and US military might on western. India can move 1 million troops into china and US will rekt all chinese facilities. China won't last a month
Thank you!
I am astounded by how much people mess this stuff up. It's almost like we didn't learn anything from Russia. Also somehow experience seems to not be a factor in anything. The US has had decades of experience, unlike China. Heck even Russia had experience and they suck.
China's navy doesn't have to invade the US to win. But the US basically has to completely defeat china on it's own turf to win. See the dilema? doesn't matter how many aircraft carriers the US has, the US can't land troops on mainland china and can't compete with china pound for pound in a war 100km off china's coast. The primary purpose of an aircraft carrier is to generate aircraft sorties. a handful of US carriers can't compete with the dozens of airbases all over china's mainland.
Also. If an airbase takes a hit from a missile, it can be fixed in a matter of hours to days. If a carrier takes a hit from a missile, its out of comission for months if not years.
The US would also have far less incentive to fight this war because Taiwan is not an existential issue for the US, whereas it is for china.
@@AizenIsKubo experience where?? fighting 3rd rate countries sure lol
VisualPolitik EN ...
you mentioned the PRC's problems with Taiwan, using the word invasion.
please explain what the word invasion means?
The Republic of China government in Taiwan represented Taiwan in the UN until the 1970s. Instead of bringing in China, when it was weak from the devastation caused by Mao, only if it agreed in the independence of Taiwan, it was allowed to replace Taiwan in the UN, with absolutely nothing gained. It would have been simple. Recognize Taiwan's independence, and you get Hong Kong, Macau, and a seat at the UN and its security council. That's a good deal. Instead of that, nothing. Taiwan was sold out for no benefit at all.
PS: It's sad that this has to be stated to the presenters of a video all about China, but "Qing" is pronounced "Ching", not "King".
I don't agree with this analysis at all. The Chinese military would have to fend off not just the U.S. military but also those of Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand in some way shape or form, in addition to that of the Taiwanese defensive forces. There is zero chance that the American government would allow China to take Taiwan which houses much of the production of advanced semiconductors, nor would they risk a loss that would displace the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. American and its allies would literally unleash industrial violence on a scale that would shock the world to protect it's status atop the global order (I haven't even considered what America's North American and European partners would contribute to make sure Asia and specifically China isn't the dominant power). This would be suicide for China, make no mistake about it.
Island state, Mountainous, high density of defensive equipment, strong cultural sense of independence.
Even with no help, China will not have fun invading.
Also US help will happen depending on how much of the advanced chips production was still in Taiwan. If China was to invade tomorrow, the US would 100% engage. Since losing Taiwan chokes the world of advanced chips atm.
6 chinese carriers? Dont think so. 3 so far
Do we have any idea how accurate these "simulations" are? Have the system been tested before wars to prove its reliability? Is it even possible to simulate a chaotic war where you don´t have a fraction of the information you need to predict anything and what you do know could change in a heartbeat. I just don´t see how you can simulate something like that with any meaningful degree of certainty.
I dont know how this software works, however i assume it will be similar to lets say weather forecast models. The software makes predictions on the basis of inputs you feed it with. The more data you feed it, the more "accurate" it is. That said, like with weather forecast models, one change or unpredicted scenario and your model can be very different from reality. Humans in this case are the "unpredictable scenario", unlike weather we dont follow easily predictable patterns. So if i should make guess, its usefull data, not something that will survive "first contact with the enemy" so to say. Its one of milions of possible scenarios that depends on the human inputs the software cant predict, or at least cant predict reliably.
VisualPolitic EN
you mentioned the PRC's problems with Taiwan, using the word invasion.
please explain what the word invasion means?
Question: Why don't the Taiwanese have some version of the 2nd Amendment? A rifle behind every blade of grass would greatly complicate an invasion. If not that, this at least allows the Taiwanese to feasibly form guerilla groups at a whim to buy their allies more time, ala Japanese island garrisons, and Filipino/American resistance during WW2. If the Taiwanese lose some or all of their depots and armories, or are forced to surrender, many of the population will still be able to fight and make any occupation a living hell. Why haven't they done this already?
Guns are banned in Taiwan, however, they've all been trained to use a gun and there are plenty of guns available to the population if a war happened.
cuz they know 2a leads to school shootings 🤣
it would open an easy path for pro-China terrorist attack, and possibly a civil war with one side supported by Chinese official.
I don’t understand why so many countries want to interfere with Chinese inner affairs
Note: PRC was not on the side of the Viet Namese during the Viet Nam war, as Viet Nam were (and still are) rivals. It was the USSR that supplied Viet Nam with arms and expertise. The US did however engage in armed conflict with the PRC during the Korean War.
Between 1950 and 1970, China supplied over $20B in military and economic aid to Vietnam. Their contribution was huge. it was only afterwards, in 1979, when Vietnam invaded China's ally, Cambodia, that relations soured and a war was fought.
@@alkers372 China support pol pot? Woah! Never knew 'bout that!
If there’s one thing us Americans are good at, it’s panicking about someone else getting near our level. Awareness of the issue in the US and abroad is too well known now. China wouldn’t be able to conduct a surprise invasion.
Epiphany Institute
Defending Taiwan
A formal Asian NATO-like military organization/treaty needs to be formed to counter Chinese aggression in the region. Imagine Ukraine's current fate without the presence of NATO.
Possible members could include:
USA, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Manila, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, and possibly India.
This would represent a formidable military coalition that China could not defeat in an all-out war.
This military force needs to be in place and ready before any hostilities begin. Only this way it is possible to prevent hostilities.
This treaty would include a Chapter 5 Clause, under which an attack on one would be considered an attack on all.
In an emerging multipolar world, coalitions are the only way to ensure peace and security for the global community.
Bernard Soberg
Is not malaya problem
Whatever the case, it's time to start making more chips in the good ol' U.S. of A., Mexico, Canada and so on.
Just a note, while they keep the label China is no longer a communist state. There aren't any left. China got real and became fascists.
Taiwan has the power to not become like Ukraine. Taiwan should choose life and peace. No one wins in a war. Winners are those who succeed in securing peace.