I see UAE involved in both offensive and defensive moves in order to control the stage. And yes, Carapaz might find that extra energy to latch on and follow leading wheels.
Considering it's a downhill and not a summit finish, I don't see Pog going all out for the win unless he can put significant distance into Jonas on the Galibier, which I am sure he will try to do. However, he will surely go for the bonus seconds at the summit.
Agree with almost everything you stated. My wild cards are Adam Yates and Matteo Jorgenson. That said, Pogi and Jonas would probably sacrifice them, i.e. Adam to pull like crazy to prepare a vicious attack for Pogi and Matteo not being able to follow.
A. Yates is looking scary ey, probably has the form to drop everybody but POG and JVG - I'd love to see a strategic race though where Jumbo and UAE have their main lieutenants attacking
If only Yates wasn't Pogacars right hand man, the stage would be suited to him. Team duties will mean he doesn't get the chance, unfortunately. Another Brit Pidcock, will almost certainly be going for the win, yet I doubt he's got the legs to stay with the best climbers, when attacks go on the Galibier. Pogacar & Jonas for me over the summit, both pulling on the decent & with Pogacar getting it on the line.
Check, we're more or less on the same page - I expect Remco to hang on as well - I think Pidcock will try to get into the breakaway, it will be interesting to see whether the other teams will allow that or not - A. Yates looking the deal ey, pity he's not on another team ;-)
Agree but Jonas won't pull with Pogacar on the descent, unless there's a breakaway in front of the race. Jonas won't beat Tadej in a sprint so it would be free seconds for him.
@@greniermatteo2905That depends on who is still there atm. If it’s just Pogi and Jonas, it would be foolish of Jonas to not help with the push. It will make it a 2-horse race early in the Tour and therefore limit the exposure of Visma
Another thing to add. Vinge looks better than we expected. Galibier is a hard climb don't let the numbers fool you(not you guy). Galibier was used just two years ago twice in stage 11 and 12. Over and reverse direction. Pogacar was in yellow and attacked on the Galibier, Vinge was the only one to follow. Pogacar climbed watching over his shoulder for Vinge the whole way. By the time Vinge attacked Pogacar could not follow. Pogacar not only lost yellow but lost almost 3 minutes! even Quintana who was farer back over took him. He blew up and lost massive time. My thought is Vinge is better on extremely long climbs. I predict Vinge for the win. Not on the decent but he will have big lead on the Galibier.
My heart would love Remco to climb with Pogacar & Jonas...but I think 70kms of climbing will be just too much for him to be able to hang on up the Galibier, unfortunately.
Vamos Carapaz! Need another highlight reel of him attacking Pogi and Jonas like a few years back. Carapaz needs a Tour stage to complete the trifecta of Vuelta, Giro and Tour!
Ey buddy, by the profile, I fully agree with you, yet usually these stages fall later on, when GC is already 'established'. Pre-race, I also had this down for the break, yet I changed opinion, because those I see winning this from the break are still close on GC and I expect them to trigger a reaction of others also sitting at 21 seconds, eventually triggering the big shots and destroying their chances - UAE also has the team to blow the Galibier to pieces - and when they do, I don't think lots of those currently sitting at 21 secs will be able to follow, so they're in a bit of a pickle - whichever way, it should be a banger ey - ENJOY
@@CyclingGuy yea normally I would agree with, but I feel like UAE are racing a bit smarter than usual... with such a backloaded Tour it would be wise to hold back this early on. At the moment (16:00) though, it does like like a GC day.
@@tacituskilgore8379 that was insane riding by UAE, I don't think I've ever seen this team time trial stile of pulling in the front group (usually it's one after the other, to drop and never come back) - crazy stuff
I slightly disagree with your assessment for the break here. It is a short stage, riders had a rest today. This means lots of energy. The stage is not long enough for the break to get substantial lead like 8mins.. therefore they will be reeled back in on the Galibier. GC favourites I expect to win here. With all of them staying together on the line.
@@timliscum2861 4000m of climbing in 120k is a lot ey + the Galibier is deceiving - the length allows for draining people's energy and then the final 8k, from the Lautaret upwards, will hurt, even though it's not double digits
@@timliscum2861 It isn't steep enough but don't underastimate the Galibier : very long climb in altitude/4°C on top which means cold and different temperatures during the stage (20°C diff). I don't say Pogacar will arrive alone or with only Vingy but everything can happen on a stage like this, lets just enjoy anyway !
I agree, yet IMO only in a scenario where he makes it into a breakaway before the Gallibier - I expect it to be very unlikely that UAE / Visma LAB don't put the hammer down on the Galibier
I personally don't get why they do it, let's hope they all stay safe. They ware quite matched, yet used to ride better lines IMO than , let's hope the Basque Country crash hasn't affected Jonas' confidence, ...
i lean towards the inneos duo of bernhal and rodriguez trying something. have no idea if they can descend tho.. a descent after the peak is just daft imo
yep, would be nicer if they'd end it atop the Galibier. Ineos not excluded ey - Bernal is an ex MTB'er so he's good in the descents, as is C Rod (check Stage 14 of last year's Tour, descent attack on POG and JVG)
@@PazLeBon I think it will be hard ey, they'll both be marked and UAE has the firepower to control - if you make me choose though, I'd pick actually pick Bernal, he thrives at altitude
Hi Adriaan, I wouldn't say he's been underperforming, or at least I find it a bit too early to draw that conclusion. Stage 1 was absolutely bonkers and I guess it came as a shock to his body, can happen - he wasn't in the decisive break on Stage 2 and Stage 3 was always going to be for Groenewegen, ... I'm not counting him out yet ;-)
@@adriaanjordaan4292 could be, yet usually there’s changes - based on what I see in the stages (riders who clearly have the speed, yet who got boxed in) and the trends from stage to stage (some improve, some are stable, some’s form will drop)
@@jiggyab I must have, but I guess we're all different, I chose to do my research first & 'only' if I don't find my answer, I'll reach out & ask others. Most stuff these days is found just a click away in seconds.
Cheers ey, my main man crashed, which is impossible to predict, and 8 of my 10 picks for the stage did actually end up in the top 10, if you call that zero, I suggest you start your own channel, happy to hear your predictions
I see UAE involved in both offensive and defensive moves in order to control the stage. And yes, Carapaz might find that extra energy to latch on and follow leading wheels.
cheers ey, thanks for sharing your thoughts on this stage
Considering it's a downhill and not a summit finish, I don't see Pog going all out for the win unless he can put significant distance into Jonas on the Galibier, which I am sure he will try to do. However, he will surely go for the bonus seconds at the summit.
All ready for a banger
Agree with almost everything you stated. My wild cards are Adam Yates and Matteo Jorgenson. That said, Pogi and Jonas would probably sacrifice them, i.e. Adam to pull like crazy to prepare a vicious attack for Pogi and Matteo not being able to follow.
A. Yates is looking scary ey, probably has the form to drop everybody but POG and JVG - I'd love to see a strategic race though where Jumbo and UAE have their main lieutenants attacking
If only Yates wasn't Pogacars right hand man, the stage would be suited to him. Team duties will mean he doesn't get the chance, unfortunately.
Another Brit Pidcock, will almost certainly be going for the win, yet I doubt he's got the legs to stay with the best climbers, when attacks go on the Galibier.
Pogacar & Jonas for me over the summit, both pulling on the decent & with Pogacar getting it on the line.
Check, we're more or less on the same page - I expect Remco to hang on as well - I think Pidcock will try to get into the breakaway, it will be interesting to see whether the other teams will allow that or not - A. Yates looking the deal ey, pity he's not on another team ;-)
Agree but Jonas won't pull with Pogacar on the descent, unless there's a breakaway in front of the race. Jonas won't beat Tadej in a sprint so it would be free seconds for him.
@@CyclingGuyI don’t see the GC favorites letting a break go that has Pidcock in it - as you called it out, too
@@greniermatteo2905That depends on who is still there atm. If it’s just Pogi and Jonas, it would be foolish of Jonas to not help with the push. It will make it a 2-horse race early in the Tour and therefore limit the exposure of Visma
@@erichgerber251 my thinking as well
Another thing to add. Vinge looks better than we expected. Galibier is a hard climb don't let the numbers fool you(not you guy). Galibier was used just two years ago twice in stage 11 and 12. Over and reverse direction. Pogacar was in yellow and attacked on the Galibier, Vinge was the only one to follow. Pogacar climbed watching over his shoulder for Vinge the whole way. By the time Vinge attacked Pogacar could not follow. Pogacar not only lost yellow but lost almost 3 minutes! even Quintana who was farer back over took him. He blew up and lost massive time. My thought is Vinge is better on extremely long climbs. I predict Vinge for the win. Not on the decent but he will have big lead on the Galibier.
Let's hope we get to see a banger
Evenepoel , Vin & Pog
My heart would love Remco to climb with Pogacar & Jonas...but I think 70kms of climbing will be just too much for him to be able to hang on up the Galibier, unfortunately.
Could be, yet it's relatively steady climbing, so I'm hoping ;-)
Vamos Carapaz! Need another highlight reel of him attacking Pogi and Jonas like a few years back. Carapaz needs a Tour stage to complete the trifecta of Vuelta, Giro and Tour!
💪
I root for Pogi, but while Vinge looked unsure on climb he will cling on
Enjoy the stage!
This has break written all over it. I’m going Bilbao, Bardet, great descenders… also Kwiato as an outsider.
Ey buddy, by the profile, I fully agree with you, yet usually these stages fall later on, when GC is already 'established'. Pre-race, I also had this down for the break, yet I changed opinion, because those I see winning this from the break are still close on GC and I expect them to trigger a reaction of others also sitting at 21 seconds, eventually triggering the big shots and destroying their chances - UAE also has the team to blow the Galibier to pieces - and when they do, I don't think lots of those currently sitting at 21 secs will be able to follow, so they're in a bit of a pickle - whichever way, it should be a banger ey - ENJOY
and I must say I like that Kwiato call of yours as well
@@CyclingGuy yea normally I would agree with, but I feel like UAE are racing a bit smarter than usual... with such a backloaded Tour it would be wise to hold back this early on. At the moment (16:00) though, it does like like a GC day.
@@tacituskilgore8379 that was insane riding by UAE, I don't think I've ever seen this team time trial stile of pulling in the front group (usually it's one after the other, to drop and never come back) - crazy stuff
Go Jonas 🏆🏆🏆
pogi winning with 1:30
Noted 😉
I think sneakily wout will be up in the front at the very least
He's one of those riders who can force the break, he's not showing interest though
not steep enough to make separation of favorites.. stalemate unless the downhill decides
I slightly disagree with your assessment for the break here. It is a short stage, riders had a rest today. This means lots of energy. The stage is not long enough for the break to get substantial lead like 8mins.. therefore they will be reeled back in on the Galibier. GC favourites I expect to win here. With all of them staying together on the line.
agree plus its not steep enough.. too easy to draft
check my podium prediction, I'm also calling GC for the win ;-) I don't expect it to stay together though
@@timliscum2861 4000m of climbing in 120k is a lot ey + the Galibier is deceiving - the length allows for draining people's energy and then the final 8k, from the Lautaret upwards, will hurt, even though it's not double digits
@@timliscum2861 It isn't steep enough but don't underastimate the Galibier : very long climb in altitude/4°C on top which means cold and different temperatures during the stage (20°C diff).
I don't say Pogacar will arrive alone or with only Vingy but everything can happen on a stage like this, lets just enjoy anyway !
@@CyclingGuyyou're faster than me haha
Pidcock could light it up on the decent…
I agree, yet IMO only in a scenario where he makes it into a breakaway before the Gallibier - I expect it to be very unlikely that UAE / Visma LAB don't put the hammer down on the Galibier
The downhill into the finish will be wild! Hard to beat Pog I think.
I personally don't get why they do it, let's hope they all stay safe. They ware quite matched, yet used to ride better lines IMO than , let's hope the Basque Country crash hasn't affected Jonas' confidence, ...
i lean towards the inneos duo of bernhal and rodriguez trying something. have no idea if they can descend tho.. a descent after the peak is just daft imo
yep, would be nicer if they'd end it atop the Galibier. Ineos not excluded ey - Bernal is an ex MTB'er so he's good in the descents, as is C Rod (check Stage 14 of last year's Tour, descent attack on POG and JVG)
@@CyclingGuy cool. nice one. soo whicj one? haha
@@PazLeBon I think it will be hard ey, they'll both be marked and UAE has the firepower to control - if you make me choose though, I'd pick actually pick Bernal, he thrives at altitude
@@CyclingGuy 🚲
Tak!
Thank you sir, much much appreciated, I never take these contributions for granted 🙏
hope we can see some more carapaz magic
Looking good in yellow!!! Tomorrow will be a nice test for the longer climbs
Why do you think has Michael Matthews been under-performing?
Hi Adriaan, I wouldn't say he's been underperforming, or at least I find it a bit too early to draw that conclusion. Stage 1 was absolutely bonkers and I guess it came as a shock to his body, can happen - he wasn't in the decisive break on Stage 2 and Stage 3 was always going to be for Groenewegen, ... I'm not counting him out yet ;-)
@@CyclingGuy thank you, really enjoying your videos. Will your recomendation for tomorrow's stage be valid for the next few "flat" stages?
@@adriaanjordaan4292 could be, yet usually there’s changes - based on what I see in the stages (riders who clearly have the speed, yet who got boxed in) and the trends from stage to stage (some improve, some are stable, some’s form will drop)
How many Stage are there in Total
On Tour de france?😮
Rather than ask such a lame question, Google will give you the answer in the time you wrote your comment.
21 stages. Some guy in the replies forgot his morning coffee.
All 3 grand tours (Giro, Tour and Vuelta) are made up of 21 stages
42
@@jiggyab
I must have, but I guess we're all different, I chose to do my research first & 'only' if I don't find my answer, I'll reach out & ask others.
Most stuff these days is found just a click away in seconds.
Als gij gene belg zijt ....ge probeert toch 😂
Steenkolen engels is my trademark 😄
Your prediction was zero yesterday.
Cheers ey, my main man crashed, which is impossible to predict, and 8 of my 10 picks for the stage did actually end up in the top 10, if you call that zero, I suggest you start your own channel, happy to hear your predictions