What You Need to Know about Lumber Prices: What is Coming Next and When Prices Will Jump
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- Опубликовано: 14 окт 2023
- Lumber prices have been on a roller coaster ride in recent years, and it's time for an update on where they're heading. In this video, I explain the reasons behind the fluctuations in lumber prices and what to expect in the near future. I'll break down the current state of lumber prices, from the ups and downs to what's on the horizon and discuss the factors affecting both framing lumber and sheet goods, and discover how pent-up demand in the housing market may influence future price trends.
If you find this information valuable, don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more insightful content. And for those interested in contributing real-time lumber price data to my ongoing research, visit DIYwithDave.com to participate in our lumber price tracker project. Thank you for being a part of this conversation!
#Lumber #lumberprices #economics
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Contact: dave@diywithdave.com
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Not only have the prices gone up but the quality has gone down.
Lots of knots and cranges. In the past it would not have made it to be sold.
Absolutely!
Dude, you are an investigative economist for carpenters! Never occurred to me to inform people. Wow you have blown me away.
You must be an INTJ.
The companies in this country have pulled this approach for decades now. They boost the prices radically high and then slowly drop the prices until a comfortable sale rate is hit for them. But the prices will never come back down to what they were before they intially jacked up the prices. So, maybe we will get lucky and these businesses will go out of business. When we start shopping at the sawmills again, maybe these gougers will be out of business.
Got news for you. Demand is going to decrease in everything for the near future. With a falling population combined with the aging boomers, demand is going to stay low for quiet some time.
That may be true in the long-term, but in the short term, there is a lot of pent-up demand for housing and unless baby boomers start selling their homes then that pent-up demand will not be met.
There is some truth to that. As I mentioned in the video, there are only a handfull of sheet good producers and when there are only a few, they have more power in the marketplace.
Inflation is another cause. The part of the price increase caused by inflation will never go back down as it represents a real increase in cost.
Yep, sounds like you're describing Capitalism--functioning properly. That's exactly what I was taught in Business School: raise prices to find Market Threshold and hold there.
My wife and I have been priced out of buying a "starter home" as our mortgage would be unto death and we would be house broke, even with a small house in our area. We resulted in buying raw land and have been steadily putting in infrastructure out of pocket. Our plans are for a 2400sf house that I am personally building for less than if I bought a POS fixer upper. The caveat is that I am milling all my own framing and finish lumber, and building everything I possibly can (cabinets, trusses, plumbing, electrical) myself. It can be done, but you have to be creative and willing to put in some sweat. I pity the men of my generation (millennial) and later who have no building skills
Do you live in an area where you can build with non-graded lumber? Most jurisdictions in the USA require you to build with graded lumber.
Unfortunately, we have an epidemic of fatherless homes and need mentors desperately!
@@GarySmythe if I upsize to dimensional 2x I can.
@@simon359 I'm in that camp too. I sought out mentors from a young age.
You know this is possible by soo few people, and its not a character flaw with millennial's. I'm employing some millennials right now to help do some concrete work on a house I've been working on since 1980. I just tore down the old deck and with additions to the foundation, at 75, I'll probably employ some millennials to help me rebuild it. You have to have so much that has to go right, from land, having a job to support what your doing, water, power, just to name a few. There was no "patreon", and although I was suppose to be building in the "wilds of Oregon" it was really the suburbs, at least that's what it is now. I did it all by myself first time around, thanks to "fine home building magazine", and Norm on "This old house" I don't think I did anything other guys aren't doing today. Getting up and going to work for their families or whatever, I just did all the crafts.
I bought 7/16" 4x8 OSB for $18.88 on Sept 25 (that was down from a $22 peak earlier in Sept and up from a low of about $12 in mid-summer). A month later in October it has declined back to $12.98. I was able to get a price adjustment credit from Home Depot for the new price (they will do this within 30 days of purchase). So be sure to take advantage of the pricing policies of the various home centers when you purchase sheet goods with volatile pricing. It really is a scam run by the mills, who raise/lower prices on a whim. I am sure the August-September bump was in anticipation of hurricane season, but we really only had one major storm in the eastern US, which mainly affected Florida. Demand did not materialize for the rest of the east coast and prices came back down.
The local yard more than doubled the prices on cabinet grade plywood, and MDO plywood. The part that torques my jaw, is they are still pulling off the same bunk of MDO, they had pre-covid, and haven’t dropped the price. They bought it and were selling it at $65/sheet. The Covid hit, and they took it upto $175/sheet. Where it still is. Wanted to build some shop cabinets. It was less expensive to buy metal cabinets from Home Desperate.
enjoy your break downs!!!! u r right on point!!!!
Thanks again for a comprehensive update, Dave. I've been considering lumber purchases for repairs and remodel. I should probably go and purchase fairly soon.
That is my impression. I think that we are at or very near the bottom. Things will only go up from here... when is the question that no one has the answer to.
I built a beautiful very well built house (our first) in 1992 for $65,000. Built our current one in 2014 for 500k, recently appraised for 1.2m. The world has gone crazy.
Great video, thank you. I have been in construction since around 1982. I love looking at the economic side of the game. I agree with most of your assessment. I bought a sawmill during the pandemic. A funny thing about that. I can saw up clear yellow pine 2by lumber all day long, dry it in my kiln down to 15% moisture level, and can not use it for faming unless I pay someone to inspect it and stamp it. Explain to me why the building inspector cant look at it during the framing inspection? I think it has something to do with the lumber lobby in Washington keeping a nice tight reign on their monopoly. But back to what you may have left out.... the fed rates have been at emergency low levels since 2008. Rates have exploded in an attempt to get inflation back down to 2%. It is very likely the wheels are about to come off the bus. Between hedgfunds owning upwards of 20% of housing inventory and the airbnb craze.... if things start to break in housing, these entities wont be selling homes, they will be dumping portfolios.
Nice work on intrinsic and pent up demand
I appreciate your commentary. I find it valuable as I need to do some building in the immediate future
Thanks for watching. I'm glad you find it useful!
My current house was built in 2020. Supplies bought in March and OSB cost contractor $8+ per sheet. When house was finished in Oct 2020, OSB was $24 per sheet. Hasn't come anywhere close since.
Really incitefull analysis. Thank you very much.
Thanks for watching!
Agreed in everything your said . Look forward to your next report.
Thanks for watching!
I don't know where you are getting this information, but the lumber prices have never came down in south Texas in the past 3 years.
It all depends upon when you are looking. I have tracked prices very closely for the past 4 years, and I can tell you that they have definitely fluctuated up and down and are currently the lowest that have been for years.
Just went to Lowe's yesterday and noticed plywood going back up again and yes it never lowered as fast as dimensional lumber and didn't get back to down to pre covid prices. As of 11/2/23 Lowe's Pueblo Colorado, KD DF 2x4x8' 3.38 each and 19/32 4x8 OSB 19.72 a sheat. I'm pretty sure the 15/32 was 15.98.
I needed some 1x6x6 cedar planks. At the big box store I had purchased 4 1x6x8 cedar planks. Paid over 76.96 plus tax and had 2 ft of waste on each board. This is 3.20 per lf. I purchased 17 1x6x6 cedar from a local small mill and paid 120 cash and had no waste and it cost .85 per lf.
Thanks probably right on!
I think so, but we'll see!
I'd be interested to know what the inventory at the lumber mills is. A few months ago, a friend who is a truck driver told me that they were holding massive amounts of lumber at the mills - and now they're laying people off? Seems like there could be some supply-side manipulation to keep prices high.
Diseased wood splits and warps laying around too long, so Demand side rules in milling ops. Wood decks and fencing are fire stupid out west. Hoarding would add $$ forklift cost and delay.
After COVID Companies raised prices so high on building materials & supplies that it scared my customers away. No more decks, patio's, fencing or remodels jobs which is sad because I've been in the home repair & remodeling business since 88.
The only way we stayed afloat was lowering our prices or laying off staff. Now I rely on my rentals properties to keep us going but home repair has gone to the dogs.
Great information. What's your outlook on treaded lumber ( decking ). I'm about to kick off our deck-building season with the weather getting cooler and better working conditions.
I think that decking and treated lumber will follow a similar pattern. Prices are near their lowest. Once building starts picking up, that will change. No one knows exactly when that will happen, but I think that next summer will be a busy building season, especially if rates come down.
Corporate takeover with the lumber in my opinion. My local lumber yard is having trouble keeping up with home depot and lowes. We are thinking about a icf concrete home to avoid these crazy lumber price fluctuations
I bought 2 boards last week. They were 8’ long, 3/4x8”. They were $38!!!!!!!
As a landlord of upper mid-range long-term rental homes, I currently see high demand here in Charlotte, NC. My 3 & 4 bedroom homes rent for ~$4-6k/mo. When I post a listing, I almost immediately get 100+ applications from prospective tenants with income 3-8x monthly rent. To me, this supports your point that buyers are putting off home purchases.
That is a very interesting data point. Thanks for sharing!
People making *_32,000+ per month_* are renting???
@@priestesslucy3299 There are renters for various reasons at every income level. (Example: We rented while we built our house.)
you missed at looking at the terms being offered by builders. my understanding the loans are short term adjustable mortgages due to reset at higher rates which mean the monthly mortgage will double creating a flow of forclosures coming.
Thanks for the update! I've noticed that the price on sheetrock has come down a bit. Any chance of that continuing?
Great question. I have been following Sheetrock and have seen something similar. I am planning on making a video on sheetrock as well. The challenge is similar to OSB in that there are only a few manufacturers and so prices tend to be pretty sticky. I was worried a while back because it seemed like there was a shortage, but it seems like that has been worked out.
6 in. x 6 in. x 8 ft. Pressure-Treated Pine Round Agriculture Fence Post are $21 at Home Depot. The price was $10 pre-pandemic. I wonder why farmers stopped buying fence posts!
I built a house in the late seventies with interest rate at 16 / 17%. But lumber and labor was reasonable for the times. Put in 70,000 and sold it for 96. Probably worth 400k now. Sure wish I had kept it.
Don't beat yourself up too much. I sold a house for $200k in 2015, which is now worth $400. I wish I could have held on to it, but in reality, it would have been a huge headache and stressful. I was moving across the country, and managing maintenance, mortgage, taxes, HOA rentors, etc., from a distance would have been challenging. Also, we never know where prices are headed. In the long term, they always go up, but there have been periods where things are down.
I'll take note of the lumber prices the next time I go to Hell Depot and send them along to your site. I'm interested to see the output.
Thanks!
As a builder I used to buy a lot of plywood. Since 2020 I have not bought a single sheet because the prices are still crazy.
So what do you use instead?
Osb is down $13 now in Columbia sc. was $19 a few weeks ago
We are wanting to build on land I own but are waiting for prices to build new lower. We own our home by the golf course and have the money but are still waiting it out.
Awesome!
Thanks!
Gloves doubled/tripled in price, cant find a pair of gloves for less than $15 dollars at lowes or home depot for like 6 months now and normal pairs are 30-40 dollars
What's the best lumber for a new subfloor for a mobile home from Home Depot?
You are missing the over-building of the multi-family in many markets like Tampa metro area. Somthing like 1.2Million units will come online in 2023 and 2024. This will push rents down which will push home prices down which will put downward pressure on component costs for building materials.
With building materials high here in NC l won't be doing a master bath add on to my home. Corporate greed is the biggest factor . The materials can stay on the shelf and in the storage yards and turn into sawdust
Dave, I am hoping to start building a home on our property next spring. Would you recommend I purchase as much of the lumber and sheet goods as possible now and store it. Or would you say I would be safe to wait.
Buy while it's cheap, but make sure you can store it where it can stay dry over the winter because warpage will ruin it.
Do you think lumber prices might continue to drop, or have they hit their low point? Thanks so much for sharing your insight.
Why are 2x4s coming down? Because they started to cut them even smaller - good luck trying to find one at 1.5 x 3.5" any more.
Rates will come down when something breaks in the financial system or there is a recession and the fed can pivot. Will the housing demand out weigh people losing their jobs or a slowing economy? Always hard to take all variables into account with the macro view
Great content (as usual Dave). Do not work in mills but also seeing what another said in decreased mills / orders in PNW..., I only disagree on building next year, I am convinced that the economic depression will be upon us by next year..., lots of people will be laid off (which is the stated goal of the fed chairman J. Powell), banks will be in chaos, and much more (CCP will invade Taiwan, etc before next years election).
That depends largely on Nasa's, unknown! Like a Hurt, voice of truth! Sing!
I do know the price of copper pipe and wire is very high right now. I was looking at prices a few days ago.
Interesting. I haven't followed that in a while, but I just checked a chart and it looks like raw copper prices have come down recently. It will probably take a bit for pipe and wire prices to reflect that - or there could be somehting else going on. I'll have to look into it.
I have to agree. Wire prices are high. From what I have found the only way to get a decent price for wire is you have to buy a high number of feet. A 25 foot roll is only half the price of 100 feet. But I don't need 100 feet to add one outlet (receptacle).
@@a9ball1 I've been buying wire at garage sales lately
Going up %
Less competition, layoffs, and price gouging.
We need some worker and consumer protection. Maybe some antitrust.
Not likely. I made a video about this a while back if you want to check it out: ruclips.net/video/mpDCmTQ3C-Q/видео.html
While there are few big suppliers, there are enough in the eyes of the government that antitrust is not likely to be pursued. In that video, I use the example of meat packers/producers. The DOJ has tried to go after them with limited success. In that case, around 85% of the market is controlled by the top 4 producers.
@DIYwithDave I don't know how I missed that video. Thanks!
Limited success in going after collusion is upsetting. It makes me wonder if we can't get big time cheats, the little gouging will not be called out in other industries.
How you call OSB plywood is beyond me. It's glue and wood scrap waste from the mills. It fails all the time. Spend the extra for real plywood. Thanx for this episode. 👍
Great point, OSB is decidedly not "plywood," but there are so many different types of sheet goods that it is just sometimes easier just to say plywood.
I make the joke that OSB is short for old sh**y bits for that exact reason. Also, to me it feels like ~1/6 OSB sheets has a fly laminated close enough to the surface to leave a visible bulge.
@@DIYwithDave Easier and worse for your viewers that don't come to the comment section for clarification. Then proceed to call OSB Plywood when they go to Home Depot. It's not like it makes or breaks your video - just a slippery slope that you should be careful of. (at least if you care about your content)
@@Luke_Groundwalker Seriously? If you are unable to differentiate between OSB and Plywood you have no business buying either.
@@AbominalBos you DO realize that normal people without experience in woodworking use the internet, correct? Do you think they care about your negative opinion of them or do you think they care more about the correct wood that they need to buy for their project they're working on? Rhetorical because the answer is obvious. Its the responsibility of the creator of the video to clarify information because you should assume that the person watching the video knows nothing.
We bought our first 3/2 house in 1991. It costs $36K! And our interest rate was around 12% Today that same house (we sold in 94) is valued at around $200 K!!!
Crazy! Do you remember what your mortgage payment was? At current rates, a $200k home would cost about $1,400/mo. and that doesn't include taxes, insurance, etc.
It was less than $300 a month if I remember right.
Wow... we will never see that ever again!
Nope. I retired a few years back and bought a couple acres and put a new 2015 SqFt Mobile home on it. Costs about 114K. With a fixed 2.50% interest rate the payments ended up a little over $500 a month with Insurance. No homeowner Taxes cause I'm 100% with the VA. Less than what my truck payment was! But it was the simplest way to go and I'm glad we did what we did. Supposedly the property is now valued at around $228K! I didn't figure the Home would appreciate, at least not much, but in this environment I guess having something is better than living under a bridge. And I've been using my retirement time to strip the inside of all that "Mobile Home" stuff. Batten strips and cheap cabinetry, etc. Replaced all the appliances with high end stuff, added a 450 SqFt Sunroom, landscaping, etc so it doesn't look like a Mobile at all anymore. And the balance is below $100k now. @@DIYwithDave
I know of a new build that is about 4 miles away, when it was built it was 300k, and now it's 420k
It's crazy how prices have jumped.
Getting rough in the mills, layoffs and closing down shifts. Orders scarce.
Do you work at a mill? What are you seeing? I have been reading a lot of articles about mill closures recently.
@@DIYwithDave I work for a large lumber mill that deals with softwood, we have shut down 2nd shift because orders are scarce and inventory high.
Very interesting. Thanks for sharing! One last question... are you located in Canada, the Pacific Northwest or the South?
@@DIYwithDave Northwest, few hours from Canada. I've been working in the Lumber industry for 20 years and seen the exact pattern in 2008, hopefully it doesn't come down to that again and we make it through this.
Higher interest rates mean less new construction, that is the only thing keeping prices down.
I’m glad I just bought a Mobile Dimension sawmill
Each state should have its own lumber yard or states with trees
Plywood ¾” for not even Baltic is $65-70. Insane.
The Fed said there not planning to low rates so I don’t understand why people keep said when interest rate go down. If inflation is this crazy and they low rates it will be a mess.
Mortgage rates aren't tied directly to the Fed funds rate, and there are a number of factors involved and so it is possible for mortgage rates to ease even if the fed keeps rates the same, but not by a lot. I think that is what people may be talking about.
Most people agree that mortgage rates will come down eventually, but the question is when and by how much. It won't happen anytime soon if the fed raises rates again.
I was a contractor, and after visiting home Depot many times out-of-state I began to find interest in a female checkout lady so I decided to buy flowers and ask her out, she wasn't up front when I got there so they said they would get them to her.
Following that I walked back into the store a week later and was confronted by a manager that told me to never come back.
Confused over this it bothered me to think I may have be put in a category I didn't belong in I did some research and found they have face recognition security and that's how they knew to stop me .
I don't know if the manager was dating her and got jealous or what the real problem was but I do know that since that time frame in 2005 they have never gotten $1 from me since and that would total well over millions today 2024 .
Something so innocent and sweet was handled wrong .
But most of those fires are not even accessible to foresters, so I'm not buying that one, I've done some fly in fishing trips and not to close to any mills
Never paid anymore than what i paid before covid. 3/4 oak plywood for $35.
I can’t find lumber price tracker in apps
Sorry, it's not an app (at least not yet). You can go to my website www.diywithdave.com to check it out.
Thanks to rubber.
what's the price trend for non-electrical wire?
Great question. I'll have to look into that.
Builders and their lenders are offering loans with interest rate buy downs. A buyer can bring in cash, pay to buy the interest rate down for a couple of years. After two years the interest rate returns to the rate at the time the mortgage was taken out. The real story is housing prices. Because of the environmental movement, communities across the country have restricted building to the extent that demand has outstripped supply since the late 1970's. I built my first home in 1980, had a 90k mortgage at 16%. That home today is worth $900k.
Sounds like a way for builders to convince people to take out loans they cannot afford.
What you are missing in terms of home demand is a continued softening of the labor market and general economic conditions. The elephant in the living room remains black rock..... Do they continue buying ???
All great points. I think that home purchases by institutional investors have slowed. Prices rose too high too fast, and I don't think that they see the same value proposition. Definitely something to watch for.
Lumber mills shutting down in OR. This will increse the Price
New housing permits are tanking and there will be zero demand created by hurricanes this year. They'll have no choice but to lower costs if they want to sell lumber.
The lumber mills are the solution to Canadian fires.
They should be exporting wood like crazy.
the demand dose not get better when we are in a depression deeper and deeper!
I don’t care if the prices go up we don’t need any new houses anyway, we can always build tents lot. More fun to go camping
Nothing out there that works. Find land and build that would. Before construction material prices go up again
Rasing prices does nothing for the bottom line in the short term. Steady prices make more money.
Georgia Pacific is the only game in town now that Kirby lumber and Lousiana Pacific has merged with Merged with GP. They have a monopoly now.
I like your videos. I don’t think you really see the shit show society is become.
Interest rates will continue to climb.
There will continue to be a pullback in building and lumber prices into 2024 and 2025.
The need for lumber will always be there housing will never go anywhere it’s the motor behind the American economy
I have it on good authority direct from the federal government that prices are only up 15.6% since the end of 2019. I know because as one of your 100% disabled vets that is the COLAs we and social security have gotten. Every price that is more than 15.6% above the end of 2019 prices are gouging. So basically everything in the economy. Anyway, I no longer need to know about DIY or wood products, hardware, tools, because in 2024 I will be homeless, not fun when turning 66 in the spring. But that is the way it goes. High school drop outs tending the fries machine in California now make more than your disabled vets, so this what it is like to be on the absolute bottom of the economic dog pile.
If we go into a deep recession lumber should keep crashing right
I was planning on building a house before the plandemic hit. I still haven't built yet but I was planning on getting started next year. Hopefully the price crashes!
For your sake, I hope it does too, but unfortunately, I think that isn't likely.
Start lumber hoarding?
I think the only part that you're missing is geopolitical politics and the push to move out of the cities. At the same time as the pandemic, you had a bunch Black lives matter protesting which became violent. Then everybody was remodeling their home office or building a home office. Many businesses at that time were remodeling as well. People were so desperate to move out of the city that they bought anything that they could including fixer uppers. Now what's happening is unprecedented for all people under the age of 50. We are going into a major wartime. This is going to affect oil prices. Sending everything ever made through the roof in price. Plus minimum wage has gone up to the point where everything is more expensive. So in short, I don't think the lumber price is going to recover.
Lumber ( logs)are being shipped to China
Interest rates are higher but you cannot put off housing just because of that, eventually the rates drop and you refi. All I know is if I cannot afford to pay the $945 P/I on my mortgage at 2.25% interest I sure cannot pay the $2,100 per month rent for the bottom of the barrel rental back in Oregon. So this is why I am planning to go homeless. As long as rents are this high and going higher house prices are not going to drop. My house is on the market and getting lots of foot traffic but no offers. There are a few cosmetic condition issues which the buyer will either live with or will fix, but having raises well less than half of real inflation and no options to earn more means I cannot fix them. But I also cannot stay in the house because month after month the pay no longer stretches to even covering the basics. All the while wealthy republicans are actually demanding we slash social security and other entitlements. I guess it never occurred to them that the other option is we raise his taxes eh? They already pay less in taxes than we do. Time to ream those guys a new set of holes.
You have it backwards...it's Democrats who want to raise taxes and cut social security. 😅
nobody is buying now if it goes up even less buying
I believe you will see a huge decline in new construction next year. America's banks are insolvent. Corporate bankruptcies are rising. And most consumers are out of money. Sorry to have to put a damper on all your optimism. It is going to be a tough time for those who swing a hammer for a living.
yes rates will go down middle of next year due to election.......
Interesting... you may be right.
907 they raise the price unbelievable and then they lowered a little bit but they're all Crooks
Its time to switch to Hemp engineered lumber...and put American Farmers back to work...........we are running out of Timber
Thanks for your comment! There are some very interesting alternatives to lumber by using Hemp. In fact, I have been in touch with a hemp wood producer and am working on a video now! To be clear, though, I don't agree that we are running out of timber. It is a renewable resource, and most of the lumber harvested in the past 20 years has been from farms or stands planted with the purpose of harvesting later. That said, lumber quality has dropped significantly (another video I am working on).
Again?!
Yup!
yes you miss one important point EXCESS DEATH due to recent medical mandates !!! at 15% it will have a MAJOR impact on all aspects of our lives and housing demand is no exception. Demand will be driven down by a lack of customers, period. Do you think people buy homes when they loose their loved ones ? So do expect a blood bath in construction in the years to come regardless of mortgage rates because we are building way too mjuch for the reduced demand coming
New Plywood crap.
Thinner.
Dave, you have no clue about the future just like the majority of Americans. The growing national debt is sustaining our fragile economy! As the debt grows it will consume government spending on SSI and other social programs. Our infrastructure will continue to crumble and taxes will only go up! Debt is NOT a good thing it is a cancer that will eventually kill us! Basically, Dave our economy is just like your physical health, in poor shape and will end in an early death. Also, every generation alive today is poorer than the older generation because the rich people are sucking the money out everyone! THERE WILL NOT BE A REBOUND IN THE HOUSING MARKET, WAKE UP TO REALITY!
Disagree, recession on the horizon. Distressed investor sellers will hit the market and lower housing prices
Biden said inflation is down? and the economy is doing good?
Inflation definitely is down, but whether the economy is good depends upon whether it is good for you and I think that most people would agree that it is tough out there.
so the prices i pay for food or gas is good? im slill trying to replace my front porch just cant justify the price yet ya democrats.@@DIYwithDave
Everything is sunshine and unicorns
Lol... you're one of the lucky ones, I guess! 🌞🦄
Biden is an idiot. Without oil, we are screwed. The price of EVERYTHING is going to skyrocket because of the "GREEN NEW DEAL". But oh well, people are so stupid they get what they vote for.