Thanks for the video. Made it easy to calculate. For probability, should we use the books odds or is it more accurate to take out the vig/juice first to get true odds?
Simpler way is just knowing your percentages off by heart. If believing a horse / team has a 25% chance of winning then it is a fair 3/1 (4.0) chance. Therefore if getting better than those odds (plus a small margin for error) then it is a good bet, So in this case 4/1 (5.0) 20% is a good bet. I can also see how much value is believed in the bet by subtracting 20 from 25.
The extra percent over 100 is the percent your being charged to place the bet. The book keeps that no matter what. Need to get a no vig calculator from plastered to show you the true odds. Or learn to convert them on your own
Is Ev supposed to always be equal for both bets? Also, how is there supposed to be value in a bet, if you are using the odds themselves to calculate the probability ? Isn’t Ev as simple as positive comparison between a projected probability vs the books implied probability?
You need to find bets where the books have essentially got the price incorrect so that there is + ev. If you only bet on these positive ev bets you will beat the books over time due to mathematics but online books will catch on quickly and close your account so it’s best used at different bookies on site.
yeah this isn't right, you can't base the ev off the books odds. you need to base it off your own system and compare your odds to the books to find the ev.
First time someone easily explained! Good vid
Thanks for the video. Made it easy to calculate. For probability, should we use the books odds or is it more accurate to take out the vig/juice first to get true odds?
Simpler way is just knowing your percentages off by heart. If believing a horse / team has a 25% chance of winning then it is a fair 3/1 (4.0) chance. Therefore if getting better than those odds (plus a small margin for error) then it is a good bet, So in this case 4/1 (5.0) 20% is a good bet. I can also see how much value is believed in the bet by subtracting 20 from 25.
Nice video, thanks for the info.
question: you picked to bet on Ravens. is there a chance that if you bet Browns it would turn out positive?
You can use the formula from the video to find out :)
how can the ravens and browns both have over 50% probability of winning?
yeah wait what?
ruclips.net/video/KgHBIybAdKc/видео.html&ab_channel=MatchbookBettingExchange
The bookies don't put the actual odds. That's why it happens.
@@JP_Jellybeans The bookies sell you the odds at a higher price than the fair odds, thats how they make money.
The extra percent over 100 is the percent your being charged to place the bet. The book keeps that no matter what. Need to get a no vig calculator from plastered to show you the true odds. Or learn to convert them on your own
I tried to calculate the EV on some matches and I just can't find any bet with positive EV...
It is pretty rare to find. That’s why sports books do so well
Doing it manually is insanity. You need a website to send you EV bets.
That's where making sure you get CLV comes into the equation, gives the edge to you rather than the books
You won't find one, need to develop your own.
@@robertriebel8064 how can this be done? what kind of software do i need to program
Can't use the book lines, you need to develop your own model.
exactly
Why can’t someone create a calculator for ev because this shit is annoying
Oddsjam already did
How did you get -4.71 not -471?
471 pennies is $4.71
Because of the % sign, which means one hundredth
Is Ev supposed to always be equal for both bets? Also, how is there supposed to be value in a bet, if you are using the odds themselves to calculate the probability ? Isn’t Ev as simple as positive comparison between a projected probability vs the books implied probability?
You need to find bets where the books have essentially got the price incorrect so that there is + ev. If you only bet on these positive ev bets you will beat the books over time due to mathematics but online books will catch on quickly and close your account so it’s best used at different bookies on site.
yeah this isn't right, you can't base the ev off the books odds. you need to base it off your own system and compare your odds to the books to find the ev.
@@ptropica1000this would be assuming that your model is more accurate than all of the sports books models
@@rlillard913yeah that’s the point, you are trying to find an edge over the sportsbook
@@ptropica1000 No, you would compare soft bookie to sharp bookies like Pinnacle to find +EV opportunities on the soft books.
KEEP IT UP