It's Here: The Fed has JUST Pivoted And RESTARTED QE (2024 Economic Recession Imminent)
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
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Believe it or not, the Fed has already Pivoted. They are now doing everything they can to prop up the markets for the election year by ending their QT program. What happens next is not going to be good for the Job Market and Main Street.
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I publish Investment Strategy on Substack Monday-Thursday: larrycheung.substack.com/
I want to make it perfectly clear that my Macro Views is only a part of our Investing/Trading positioning. Many people mistake my cautious view of the economy as us missing out on strong market returns. Folks who follow my work on Substack know that is not the case. Macro is an intellectual conversation topic for long-term investing. I do NOT use Macro for my intraday scalping decisions.
I do this for real. You make videos. I can give you advice but I'm not sure you could handle it.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
They raise interest rates, but then continue their obscene overspending and money printing. Such a mess
They stopped printing money when they started hiking interest rates. That's the literal meaning of quantitative tightening.
Despite the ups and downs in the stock market, you've managed to turn your investments into good profits. Could you share the name of your advisor? I have $300k saved up and ready to invest. Letting money sit idle isn’t my style as well, I’d rather put it to work and keep it growing.
I am on the look out for experts and after doing my research online will say she meets my requirements, Thank you for sharing with us. I already sent her a mail hoping she can make out time in her busy schedule to assist me.
@@michealpnoel I think The US government needs to get US out of all these senseless wars, & extract their fair share from billionaires, & Corporations. Then we could shore up Social Security, provide an education, & healthcare, AND begin to pay down the national debt. But this will never happen as long as Americans keep voting for 1 of the 2 Corporate Parties.
I agree with you there
I had initially planned to retire at 62, work part-time, and save money, but the impact of high prices on various goods and services has significantly disrupted my retirement plan. I'm worried about whether those who experienced the 2008 financial crisis had it easier than I currently am. The volatility of the stock market is a concern as my income has decreased, and I fear that I won't be able to contribute as much as before, potentially jeopardizing my retirement savings.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over $800,000.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach to you using their service?
Leticia Zavala Perkins, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The most significant lesson I gained from the stock market in 2023 is that uncertainty prevails, emphasizing the importance of humility. Adhering to a long-term strategy with a competitive edge is key
Certainty eludes everyone; thus, it's vital to establish your own methodology, handle risk, and adhere to your strategy unwaveringly. This commitment should endure challenges and successes, all while maintaining a commitment to ongoing learning and improvement.
Embracing uncertainty, I realized after five years that attempting to predict market outcomes through chart analysis was futile due to the unpredictable nature. My lack of a mentor led to six years of struggle. I transitioned to following the market's direction and adopting a straightforward, disciplined approach.
Who is the professional who is advising you, if you could perhaps tell us? As a novice investing in stocks without the correct direction of a professional, I have lost a lot of money.
Camille Anne Hector is the analyst that helps me. She has a large following and is easily found online. She has extensive understanding as I have made so much since following her.
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes. Thanks for sharing
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Thanks for keeping it light and real at the same time. Much needed for us traders in times like these!
The internet is filled with so many useful information about Francine Duguay crypto….
This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
It really helped trading with Francine Duguay analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..
many are not eating out, cancelled vacations, not going to Starbucks, staycations this summer........gas has also gone up!
It’s worse:
record credit card delinquencies,
property owners are late on their payments due to renters unable to pay,
even commercial real estate owners are struggling to pay causing regional banks to go bankrupt….
Add the Japanese Yen crisis,
with Japan owning 1/10th of the Federal Reserve’s treasury bonds,
and things could get really bad….
Makes me laugh that Starbucks is the im wealthy option 🤣🤣
Its lockdown all over again
Agree, many where already doing this for years already
Idk when I go out a lot of people are out still spending money, still going out to eat and I have a vacation in Florida in 2 months
Investors are extremely alarmed by the impending recession and the Fed's rhetoric of raising interest rates. My $600,000 stock portfolio has lost 25% of it’s value. Whats the best way to hedge my portfolio to make profit in this coming recession
Everyone is uneasy due to the continuous wars in the Middle East. To get assistance with your portfolio, you ought to speak with an FA.
True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advsors.
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Now is the time for new college grads to move home and live for free, save every penny and pay off all debt asap! Married people should pay off debt and live below their means. Retired people should live near their children so as they age someone will be able to check in on them to avoid hiring outside help and baby sit for free to help out.
Asian families already been doing this
@@AnNguyen-sj4in Smart!
Parents had the kid without consent. They should finance the kid for life
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Powell's dumb comment 'I don't see the stag, I don' see the flation' is going to be ridiculed next week, today we had the consumer sentiment report coming in at a level only seen in recessions, and next week economists are already forecasting a 4th month of continued increasing inflation.
Big crash incoming.
We don't need a freaking comedian. We need a Fed chairman who knows what the heck he's doing and doesn't blow smoke up our nether regions.
And let's not forget how the global economy plays into all of this. Economic instability, inflation, and market fluctuations can further complicate matters and add to people's financial worries.
With the ever-changing global economy, fiscal and tax laws and regulations can also vary, impacting how investments are taxed. It's essential to stay informed and adapt your tax planning strategies accordingly.
Honestly this cannot be overemphasized, helping people mitigate unforseen circumstances and mistakes .It's always good to have a financial plan,
the problem is that you don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high salary in these challenging conditions.
It's crucial for individuals to diversify their portfolios, seek professional financial advice, and stay informed about market trends to navigate these challenges effectively.
That's true. Changes in tax policies, both domestically and internationally, can have significant implications for investors. It's crucial to work with financial advisors who understand these complexities and can help navigate them effectively.
Good stuff. Only note, stagflation is far worse than recession.
From $7K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Larry, I did like this video. I like that you are trying to really help. The fed can't raise rates because it will look like their calculations are wrong. MIght cause a market panic. Also their credibility to manage things is hit hard. The Fed can't cut rates and won't because inflation is high. Inflation is more likely to go higher since they can't actually raise rates and stamp it out. They are praying that hopefully over time inflation goes down. Paul Volker stamped out inflation in the 70's. Raised rates as high as need to stamp out inflation. 20% interest rates on fed funds rates. Volker's methods worked. It is 45 years since then. The current fed is not following the Volker model. They can't because there is too much debt in the system. Debt to GDP is 130% probably is way higher because I think GDP is not accurate. During Vlolker debt to GDP was 30%. So raising rates will cause a market and economic crash. We have too much debt 35Trillion. We can't recover from that. Debt to GDP will explode. Inflation is like a cancer, it will cause a collapse of our economy also. It will happen slower than raising rates to 20% . The FED is trapped. They are just praying that inflation will go away on its own where they have rates now. In summary, Rate hikes will destroy us or Inflation will destroy us. We are trapped.
Great additional information. Thanks!
There is still no pivot. Any kind of increasing the money supply is inflationary. Cutting rates is inflationary. Not going to happen any time soon.
Good comment, but I think you're missing the possibility of a deflationary default event brought on by the higher debt costs of this raising cycle. Of course they will inflate even more after a deflationary event but first we may go into deep recession/depression if there is a cascade of defaults and debt destruction
You know what occurred to me the other day.. Paul Volcker might be gone but the owners of the FED are the same people... if they were okay with high rates to fight inflation back then, why change now? It makes sense that their goals have remained the same: protect the dollar. A "soft landing" is just an absurd pipe dream but when push comes to shove the FED will save the dollar over the economy IMO. The reality is the FED has no other choice.. if the USA has sustained high inflation investors aren't going to accept negative real yield. The Government will be not be able to fund buyers for its bonds otherwise.
@@dmoney7536 I thought I wrote too much. Yes You are correct. I keep thinking we had the housing bubble in 07-08. 5 years of low rates. Since 08 and Covid we have had will say 15 years of almost zero rates. Debt everywhere. Wonder how it ends and what financial hurricane we are not seeing.
This was a great video! 😮 thank you! ❤
i think we are being lied to. we are definitely in recession. i do not think we are in stagflation yet. people are still buying and shopping
Great breakdown Mr. Cheung!
Well done, Larry.
Just stumbled across your channel Larry. Great video and keep producing amazing content like this 🎉
Great one . Especially for the last 2 min
The communication in this video was 💯
Quality video. Thank you
Thank you for keeping it real man
Given that housing inflation is largely supply driven, do you believe that higher rates are going to solve supply-driven inflation in that sector?
Preach brother
You’ve just earned a new subscriber. Solid analysis!
I’m 40 and I am a switchboard operator. The job is full time and comfortable but pays terribly, so I am shifting to part time this fall and going for a blue collar certificate in building maintenance and management. It is a 1 year program and I won’t have very much debt after I finish… then I will embark in a new career somewhat better paying than what I do now. As a 40 year old man who makes $15 an hour now I am a sitting duck in the economy. But at night after work I either make strange music or I rest. Job too exhausting to work after work.
Don't forget about vacancies in your State gov't. Get in now before there's heavy competition for those positions.
I always ask “have we felt enough pain yet to change ?” I am am a married man with 2 children under 4. My wife stays home and I work. I make over 150k a year and life in a home that was under 200k when I bought it 10 years ago. My Mortgage is 2.11% . I have no idea how people are making ends meet. I thought I was doing well for myself but I can’t afford vacations. I could not dream of buying a bigger home right now because they are all over 500k in my area. It’s very depressing and I could only imagine what the kids out of college are facing. When will we change the policies we keep voting for? When will we realize they have effects and debt matters. I fear for my kids future and it’s heartbreaking to me as a parent
Get in the now and stop worrying about the future. This will cause you excessive health issues in the near future. Making 150k means nothing if you squander your health away worrying about things outside of your control.
The trajectory is troubling to me as well. I am over 50 so I have seen the ebb and flow of the economy in my lifetime. We are sliding downward and I see no potentials for rebound. Even if everyone was given a 50% raise all that would do is spike inflation more. The costs of goods and services are not going down. Improving efficiencies in production only mean the implementation of robotics which means fewer jobs. Higher education is becoming out of reach again for so many. Interest rates are the number 1 issue and our government in the United States failed to see the plight of the average citizen. Some think the when the boomers pass, that will help with the housing situation, but I don't see it. Costs went up to fast, and wages can't even begin to catch up. Foreign jobs are coming back home, but they will bring their wages with them. I know this country isn't thinking about that.
You are actually doign super well. Boomers created this mess.
@@monkeyloven I was raised by boomers, trust me they didn't spend money on unnecessary stuff like internet, smartphones, streaming, expensive cars and useless college degree debt. Most of the ones I knew couldn't afford to run the AC or heat most of the time. They saved money and spent it wisely. Most generations that blame boomers for everything waste their whole check.
This is all good and well but there is a problem, Atlanta FED GDPNOW is looking at 4.2% growth for Q2. Why should the FED do anything when that is on the horizon? Yes Q1 was on paper 1.6% but that can change it is only the first number out the gate, we shall see.
I don't understand the portion pertaining to 2:36 -- what are the assets they are reducing on their balance sheet. What does that mean? How does that effectively do QE?
The assets being held is usually bonds. So The fed is slowing the process of redeeming their bonds which helps keep money in the system rather than taking it out (cease to exist). QT and QE rely heavily on the purchase of bonds. Heresy Financial on RUclips does an amazing job explaining this concept. If the fed were to be buying bonds then they would be pumping money into the economy (QE), but they're taking money out of the economy (QT) but at a slower rate since they've been in QT for quite a while at an aggressive rate.
@@QuestWithJoey Actually, the FED is doing QE. In their version of QT, the FED allows their bonds to mature. When the bonds mature, the Treasury Department redeems the bonds and the Fed receives the face price of the bonds and then turns around and gives the funds back to the Treasury Department to use to redeem other bonds from other bond holders, increasing the money supply. Although this version of QT does reduce the Fed balance sheet, it does not actually involve selling any bonds and does not increase bond interest rates or reduce bond prices or reduce money supply. It is QT in name only. The real reason actual QT is going on is because the Treasury Dept is selling new bonds hand over foot and because most of the other central banks are unloading their holdings, too.
What the QT to QE pivot means is that after the Fed's bonds mature, the Fed will actually start purchasing bonds on the open market with the redeemed funds. This will not increase their balance sheet since they are just replacing matured bonds, but it will actually raise bond prices, reduce bond interest rates and still increase money supply. Unfortunately, this will encourage other central banks to unload even more Treasuries because the prices will be higher. And some private banks will also choose to unload more of their Treasuries because they know that, even though their assets will have recovered somewhat, they know that it is only temporary. Whether this level of QE will actually lead to more favorable market conditions for the Treasury Dept is a big question mark. I think long term interest rates will only go higher in the long term. US government spending is the actual problem that can never be solved by any Fed strategy or policy.
When you slow down the tapering on the Fed's Balance Sheet, liquidity conditions improve and that will make the lending environment easier for banks (and that eventually flows into consumers' borrowings ability/opportunity)
@@QuestWithJoey
hey thank you, that was very helpful -- that makes sense.
-If the FED buys bonds, they are sending money into the economy.
-If the FED redeems bonds, they are sucking the money out of the economy.
Stagflation is the spectre that the Fed has been trying to keep under wraps, but that’s mission impossible.
The only way to kill it is to increase production,, however under the current economic model that’s almost impossibility…. Private companies must take on huge risk to overproduce - employees are searching for higher wages wherever they can get them; they won’t hesitate to dump a job
True people with real skills is hard to find. I'm looking to hire a network security SME. Pays 200k... can't find find a candidate. Also I'm in cloud administration and there are many openings for those also.
Horrible job lol
in a depression, yes the main factor is whether you can hold on to your job or not
I've been milking the higher interest rates in term deposits here in Australia. If they're going to cut rates then now's the time to lock in a longer term 12 month offer, check your bank for offers because I got a good yield on a 11 month term deposit so 70% of my cash is in there and I put 20% into a 3 month and just keep the 10% liquid. I'm getting the monthly interest payments.
Afraid to lose your corporate job? Learn a real trade- blue-collar, so much demand with so little qualified people. I make over six figures and only work half the year.
For sure we also have a shortage of some 7 million homes that is going to take a lot of people and blue collar workers to build all of that.
six figures buys you nothing these days.
@@dlk3904 False. Budget correctly, and it will buy you much.
What six figure job do you do?
Thanks
Good video
Does this mean that gold and other precious metals will continue to go up?
Most likely yes
Sorry out of topic but what is ur glasses brand and make? Looks good & I wanna buy one 😅
I got this pair from China when I was there last year. It’s unbranded 😂
Oh Awh 🥲 thank you anyway !
So will the housing situation crash in the next few years? I'm asking because I am thinking of buying some land and a prefab (because it's unlikely that I'll be able to buy a traditional home in Washington state at this time).
This is so accurate....
“Quantitative tightening” is technically Long for QT
my opinion is most layoff are happening in tech sector, where their jobs are being replaced by generative AI. Blue collar workers are less affected.
Corporates will have better net margin after cost cutting and stock market will continue going up
Fed doesn’t have the legislative jurisdiction to “target” anything but qt or interest rates. This needs to be done by congress.
in order to keep printing more debt to support government spending, inflate to keep debt smaller and lie everything else.
I acknowledge that it’s a good analysis, but it’s a clickbait title that implies Fed pivoted rates which would produce different market results given that it’s a more public stance
I think pivoting from QT to QE is actually a bigger about face than a quarter percent reduction in fed funds rate, even if the public is unaware of it. QE is probably an attempt to counter the sales of Treasuries by all the other central banks in the world. This implies that it's starting to hurt. They certainly don't want to make that public. Unfortunately, this will encourage the other central banks to start selling faster for longer since QE will prop up the prices they get for their Treasuries and reduce their losses. Some shaky private banks may also start taking the opportunity to sell off their "assets," too.
QE -> QT is a more important pivot than lowering rates by 25BPs.
The only thing FED job is printing money money 💰 😂😂
The point IS to tank the economy so they can roll out their brand new, technocratic economic model… complete with no free-money and only a social credit system.
I guess if you predict the market crash every week eventually you're going to be correct.
I didn't talk about a market crash in the video.
@@LarryCheungCFAoh sorry you called recession on this video. Boy you really got me on that one
Everyone and their mother can see a market crash/recession coming. Only question is whether the Fed and Biden can postpone it until after the election this November.
@@Adrian-yi8fl I think you got dropped on your head... as an adult. Market crash does not equal recession since recessions can be caused by several things. Just look at the "pandemic."
@@Jester2415 tell you what go back through the past 4 years of videos on this channel and tell me what percentage contain the word crash, collapse, crisis, recession or some other synonym. It's like 90%.
In capitalist America banker’s paradise, market corrects YOU!
The economy is bad everywhere in the world and not just the US. We are all waiting for interest rates to drop and and grocery companies to stop being greedy and that is also everywhere including here in Canada. Our kids have been moving back home fr a long time now cause the rents have skyrocketed here and it is just pure greed and there is no need to double rents when someone moves.
im gonna die in the climate wars man...
Older people don't count.
I only eat food thats real food, but damn I love those McDonalds hash browns. Ide still pay $3 if i ate them. I will say, as a construction contractor, its been a damn good year. But its so obviuos that normal job people are royally screwed. Those of us who dont care if a jug of milk is $5 or $8 are fine but a 30% increase in food, rent, gas etc. is just un-sustainable for most people.
Glad I’m a paid subscriber. Would love to see more exclusive video. Spot on content as usual 😀
Thank you so much!
Thanks for your ahead of the game info!
*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*
Hello , I am very interested. As you know, there are tons of investments out there and without solid knowledge, I can't decide what is best. Can you explain further how you invest and earn?
Same, I operate a wide- range of Investments with help from My Financial Adviser. My advice is to get a professional who will help you, plan and enhance your management skills. For the record, working with Angela Christine Derle, has been an amazing experience.
YES!!! That's exactly her name (Angela Christine Derle) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her 😊from Brisbane Australia🇦🇺
Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦♀️of myself because of low finance but I still
believe in God
I'm favoured, $60K every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America,, all thanks to Ms Angela 😊🎉
I am essentially retired, with what I believe would have been adequate retirement income and savings a few decades ago. However, I believe that the impending collapse of this economic system built on cards will destroy the value of both the retirement income and savings. How can I diversify at least the savings portion to provide some level of insurance against the grievous and corrupt mismanagement that the possession of absolute power has inflicted on the Western capitalist system?
My best advice to young people for this coming collapse is to go West or South or East to regions of world, especially in the global majority, that are not under the control of the deluded leaders and media that we have here in the USA. The overvalued USD will enable you to live well for a time, but you should certainly start to diversify your assets.
Asia has the fastest growing economies right now and should remain so for some time despite global headwinds brewing. Mexico will continue to see investment from both the American continent and China, although a serious recession in the USA may slow that a bit. India will also continue to be one of the fastest, if not the fastest, growing economies in the world. Russia, because it has insulated itself very well from the West, should also continue to grow. The other BRICS members may also be better prepared for the approaching storm because they have seen it coming.
I believe that many of the Belt and Road members can continue to see growth as long as capital investment plans are not too severely affected by the recessions in the West. But that will depend on how quickly those countries can divest themselves of their reserves based on toxic Western assets.
Most countries will try to ramp up sovereign investments in order to protect against the downturn. Focus on those with the best governance and the best balance sheets. Avoid countries run by idiots and those with high levels of public and private debt.
Soooo...... are we still all voting based on social issues? Or can we grow up and have the big boy discussion on how a politicians job has very little to do with your social justice causes and everything to do with how we all live financially.
You have been warning for bad times for years now. Still the stock market has been booming! At some point you will be correct, but not so far. People who has invested in A.I stocks have been cashing it in big time.
Shut up keep working hard and pay off debt
Guess what all you "QUIET QUITTERS" out there, employers KNOW who you are. You THINK we can't see you, but nothing sticks out more than an employee with a bad attitude. High labor demand kept you in your job, not YOU. Now the tables are turning. You are now being "QUIETLY FIRED". Not getting the promotion/raise/vacation time you wanted? Coming in late, not meeting deadlines/quota's/incentives? Think you "work so hard", and "go above and beyond"? Those who actually do, never have to say it. The one's who scream, "I do so much for this company", are usually the WORST employees. Employers ALWAYS have a list of those they want to get rid of FIRST when times get hard, yes, the "quiet quitters".
Bro (Biden) said inflation was at 9%
The markets are uncertain about the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates until inflation stabilizes. What's the best strategy to capitalize on the current market conditions? I'm contemplating diversifying my $400k portfolio.
keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I was going solo, but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
@@mikegarvey17I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
My CFA “Gertrude Margaret Quinto” a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
2033
1:20 really misleading statement. GDP growth for Q1 was 1.6% real (already adjusted for inflation). I would expect a cfa to know that.
yeah came here to say that. nominal annualized for Q1 was +4.8%
Thanks, I was just about to make the same point.
What’s your take on the rest of the video?
Inflation is definitely higher than 3%. This "real" GDP of 1.6% isn't real.
You have misspoke regarding length of unemployment. While the number of unemployed people has risen, the unemployed are actually finding work faster.
1. The number of people unemployed > 27 weeks as a percentage of the total for both april 2023 and april 2024 is the same (it has held at around 19%. )
2. 1. The number of people unemployed < 5 weeks as a percentage of the total for both april 2023 and april 2024 has risen from 33% to 35%.
The net situation is worse because the number of unemployed people has risen. That larger base number makes the situation a net negative regardless of whether the >27 Weeks percentage is the same or the
@@LarryCheungCFA the unemployed are also going from 1 full time job to multiple part time jobs
UK just claimed to be out of recession , i wonder how that plays out...
humble and likeable? guess this generation is doomed then 🤣
lol - i'm working on being more likeable :]
Oh Snap world ending. Hurry get under da bed
A recession is coming, but being wrong about timing is wrong. Timing is very important when it comes to predicting a huge economic recession.
wrong, time, not timming is the key about investing
@@junal27 Yes, of course. People who attempt to time the market usually lose out. That being some big people are doing that, but only time will test.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
This is precisely why I like having a portfolio coach guide my day-to-day market decisions: with their extensive knowledge of going long and short at the same time, using risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying it off as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, their skillset makes it nearly impossible for them to underperform. I've been utilizing a portfolio coach for more than two years, and I've made over a million dollars.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like “JENNIFER LEIGH HICKMAN” who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
Home prices “higher for longer”
Paid for comments
1.6% GDP is already adjusted for inflation... can't deduct it again...
True it is REAL GDP so already adjusted for inflation
Inflation is definitely higher than 3%. Real GDP of 1.6% isn't that "real".
market will continue to rip higher, these bears will continue to keep you poor. While spx went on a 1,200 point run and these guys were calling for the end of the world
Macro is an intellectual conversation topic. Looking at the vulnerability behind the economy does not mean we haven't participated in market upside. Macro does not dictate positioning; it is purely a discussion point.
@@LarryCheungCFA you were wrong on the macro as well
You've discouraged people from getting involved in a bull market at a time when they could really have used the extra cash from investments.
No I haven’t. Read my Substack lol😂
you lost me at inflation = high prices
what happened to this channel, only doom and gloom in every video. only thing missing are flames in the thumbnail.
larry is seeing the recession since 2022, probably missing out on fat stacks of cash bc he is trying so hard to stick to his opinion without ever challenging it.
Listen carefully - this isn't doom and gloom. This is revealing the truth about what's going on. As for missing out, I'm not missing out on anything.
Was all good until you recommended a PhD or other knowledge working specialization. Really terrible advice. The knowledge worker pseudo royalty is coming to a - possibly violent - end.
You are hysterically better off learning a trade. Most of knowledge workers produce something between absolutely nothing and non essential services. Both of which lose all value in a depression.
Any of the skills required to keep a home or transportation vehicle running are recession proof. Electricians and plumbers are making more than some knowledge executives already. CPA is like an $80k/yr job. You need to live in Alabama for that to be good income.
Best advice heard so far, "keep you job!". With curves ahead, keep it and tighten the belt, we all normal people, paycheck to paycheck type, will need. Unload debt asap and save.
From $7K to $45K that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.