How to Beat the 3-Fund Portfolio (Maybe)

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  • Опубликовано: 29 дек 2024

Комментарии • 73

  • @alphamale2363
    @alphamale2363 2 года назад +67

    John Bogle : "There may be better investment strategies than owning just three broad-based index funds but the number of strategies that are worse is infinite."

  • @ajrobbins368
    @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +5

    If buying "winning funds" or excluding "losing funds" beat the market, we would all chase that strategy until it provided little/no return. AKA efficient market hypothesis.
    Because of competition, there are no long-term strategies that beat the market without accepting additional risk.

  • @joeburns3302
    @joeburns3302 2 года назад +3

    Thanks Rob another thought provoking video. Your videos are by far the best on RUclips.

  • @adenmall7596
    @adenmall7596 2 года назад +3

    Solid Video Rob...With the way the market is moving, we'll mostly hold for longer than 2030 to realize profit gain.

  • @michaelevans5328
    @michaelevans5328 2 года назад +7

    Great stuff, as usual, Rob. I’m following your 6-fund portfolio minus the REITs. But I have 15% of my portfolio in real estate investments (class B apartment complexes) through private equity (similar to Open Door Capital but a less flashy operation). I’ll let you know in 20 years whether it all worked out ;). You’re looking younger every day!

    • @rob_berger
      @rob_berger  2 года назад +13

      Everybody should read and learn from this comment, particularly the last sentence. Nicely done!

    • @fabiGBOtown
      @fabiGBOtown 2 года назад

      Michael, i have a question about where to put those investments. I have 3 accounts, roth, 401k and brokerage, I think reits goes on a roth hands down but how do you spread the other investments? Thank you

    • @michaelevans5328
      @michaelevans5328 2 года назад +1

      @@fabiGBOtown you should ask Rob! Most ppl would put REITs in a tax advantaged account for tax reasons; I might favor a traditional IRA/401(k) over a Roth for my REITs. I don’t own REITs. Good luck!

    • @fabiGBOtown
      @fabiGBOtown 2 года назад

      @@michaelevans5328 hi Michael, thanks. Hopefully on Tuesday I'll get a chance to on his live.

  • @KhinMNwe
    @KhinMNwe 2 года назад +1

    Rob - Thanks for all the thought provking & informative videos... I learn more from your videos than my financial advisor...

  • @brfulcher
    @brfulcher 2 года назад +3

    The thing I found amusing about personal capitals advisory service (who I left this year) is that they preach a sector diversified fund approach. Yet, when I would look at the sector breakdown of their fund, it was always tech heavy. I'm guessing this is because without that, they would not have been making returns that were close to the market.

    • @HB-yq8gy
      @HB-yq8gy 2 года назад

      Thanks for info glad we skipped the free check-up!

  • @markgenest6206
    @markgenest6206 2 года назад +1

    Rob: super helpful as always. Please keep these videos coming. You are doing a great job!

  • @natefleck2132
    @natefleck2132 2 года назад +2

    Hi Rob. In supplementing the 3-fund portfolio, why do you prefer the small-cap value as opposed to small-cap? I have been looking at both VB and VBR to add to my portfolio and am having a hard time deciding between the two.

  • @alex182618
    @alex182618 2 года назад +1

    Every portfolio is included in total US market. It is easier to stick to through thick or thin.

    • @geoffgordon9569
      @geoffgordon9569 2 года назад

      That's why I chose a U.S. total stock market fund over a S&P 500 fund.

  • @DavidMontgomery1
    @DavidMontgomery1 2 года назад +1

    @rob Berger Do you have a preferred fund to use for small cap value exposure? Thanks!

  • @CalKidWilly
    @CalKidWilly 2 года назад

    Thank you Rob, helpful analysis. Your pithy summaries are a helpful antidote to the obfuscation of the typical financial industry claptrap. - Bill

  • @krisskogs2532
    @krisskogs2532 2 года назад +1

    @Rob Berger When you say you have 10% weighting to small cap value, does that include the weighting of all your investments (based on the Morningstar 9 category matrix since total market index funds have some exposure to small cap value) or are you referring to you have a small cap value fund that comprises 10% of your portfolio (which are not weighted completely small cap value on the Morningstar matrix and also includes some midcap and blend/growth exposure)?

  • @kokalti
    @kokalti 2 года назад +2

    I think investing is more of an art than a science. It takes independent thinking and looking at things at an absolute logical way. An example of it being more of an art and not a science is that if a surgeon made as many mistakes as Warren buffet then you probably wouldn’t go to that surgeon. Warren Buffett considered to be an absolute best investor made a lot of mistakes in his days, most recent one is purchasing four major airlines and then selling them at a huge loss. After which the airlines did recover. This is an interesting industry where following the best does not necessarily will mean great returns. Everyone is ultimately left to think for themselves.

    • @vikramkaushik
      @vikramkaushik 8 месяцев назад

      For dummies like, investing is just a science. Invest in VTI, hold it for long term for 20years , get 8% compounding interest, retire happily 😅

  • @jeffreyspecht7343
    @jeffreyspecht7343 2 года назад

    Thanks Rob. Appreciate the perspective you gave.

  • @ezpz88
    @ezpz88 2 года назад

    Rob, always appreciate your videos. I hadn't watched any in a few months and was surprised you didn't have anything analyzing the current market. But maybe you don't do that. I thought it was interesting you mentioned small cap and Emerging Markets. I remember when everyone was supposed to have those in their portfolios, but it appears to me that in the last 10 or 15 years Whenever there is a major Market correction it favors large caps and there's a massive flight to them, so small and mid caps and emerging markets and international are all languishing in relative terms

  • @DavidMontgomery1
    @DavidMontgomery1 2 года назад

    Good video! Thank you for sharing the information and running the portfolio simulations.

  • @Steve_SEC
    @Steve_SEC Месяц назад

    My concern is that you have no protection against a repeat of 2020. Maybe instead of bonds you can use Treasuries such as VUSXX?

  • @nickdoyle-achievefinancial2464
    @nickdoyle-achievefinancial2464 2 года назад

    IMO, the TFP has enough exposure to the alternatives. SCV supposedly gives extra risk factors, but I'm not convinced it will continue (hasn't in ~15-20 years). I think it's mostly splitting hairs and the extra complexity doesn't justify it in my mind.

  • @luisoncpp
    @luisoncpp 2 года назад +1

    I like the idea of adding small cap value for having extra diversification; there have been times when the stock market is down but small cap value is up, however what bugs me is that I'm not sure about how much to allocate to small cap value. I know there is no _right_ answer, however, I want to have a good reason to choose one allocation in order to stick with it.

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +2

      The Paul Merriman Foundation is a non-profit organization that works to educate Do-It-Yourself investors. They have research on small cap value and several life strategies to suit different levels of risk tolerance.
      I highly recommend their website and RUclips channel to you.

  • @francismcginn1630
    @francismcginn1630 2 года назад +3

    It seems that anytime you want to diversify further you take from the broad US stock market fund and never from the international fund. For years, I had 15% in international and it very rarely compared to US stock. Would you ever consider a three fund portfolio of only: S&P 500, US small cap value and US bonds?

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад

      NO ONE can buy past performance.
      If buying past winners was a profitable long-term strategy, no one would lose money investing.
      Example: The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) substantially beat the market in 2020 and 2021. This year it has dropped by more than 50%.

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +1

      "For years, I had 15% in international and it very rarely compared to US stock."
      So what? International stocks have beat US for decades at a time if you look back.
      Poor performance last decade does not predict future performance.

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +1

      If one country was a "sure bet" and always provided higher returns, everyone everywhere would invest and exhaust the higher returns.
      It's called market efficiency.
      The US has been on a winning streak for more than a decade, so investors have flocked to US companies, adding to the winning streak. Now US stocks are valued based on profits expected many years in the future, so companies must beat high expectations for a decade to provide decent returns. (Possible, but far from a "sure bet.")
      International stocks are looking cheap by comparison. Expectations of growth/profit are much more reasonable. Emerging markets are particularly cheap, partially because they are exposed to more risk.

  • @daveh3988
    @daveh3988 2 года назад +1

    Rob - you mentioned before you have invested in SCHD. If that is still the case, does that mean you are tilting to both large cap value and small cap value? I do that and was wondering if that was still your position. Thanks for all the great videos and go Buckeyes!!

  • @robreighter2851
    @robreighter2851 2 года назад

    Excellent, as always! Very helpful.

  • @ajrobbins368
    @ajrobbins368 2 года назад

    RISK = REWARD over the long-term (meaning 15+ years)
    Another name for risk is "uncertainty."
    Uncertainty has infected the US stock market in 2022. Expectations of growth are declining for the 1st time since the pandemic started. Prices have fallen to match the new environment of uncertainty.
    Investors now see the future as more risky, not the "sure bet" the US market previously appeared.
    Accepting that risk and embracing uncertainty has paid off over ever 20-year period in stock market history. (Unless the market is ended by war and/or revolution.)

  • @Lukionest
    @Lukionest 2 года назад +2

    One thing I've found in my own experience is that if I pay a fee to an advisor, I am more likely to stick with their recommended allocation and stay invested in the long term. If I do all my own investing, I am more likely to change my mind about what I'm invested in. I hate paying an advisory fee and I think I can do a better job by myself with index investing, but when I look at my history, that isn't the case. In effect, the fee may be buying me more than just the advisor's expertise. It may be buying peace of mind and a long-term approach that I think I should be able to achieve all by myself, but in practice find it hard to actually do.

  • @HuwJones
    @HuwJones 2 года назад

    I think all the pushback you get on the simple index fund approach is because most people are thinking short-term. They just can't get past it. I think we simply need to swamp/saturate RUclips with deferred gratification videos (marshmallow tests, etc) along with the explanation of the long term approach. Heck it's for this reason alone that many people don't do a 401k...long term is just not in the picture. That's also why there's a movement to make people auto-enroll in a 401k

  • @Bananamaltastic
    @Bananamaltastic 2 года назад +20

    Hey Rob, could you do a video on what happens if a brokerage shuts down? For example, imagine M1 suddenly closed their doors. What would happen to our holdings on M1?

    • @HuwJones
      @HuwJones 2 года назад +3

      Your assets would be transferred to another brokerage...someone would be appointed or would pay for those accounts (take them over)....or you'd get the option to transfer your stuff elsewhere or cash out.

    • @theotherview1716
      @theotherview1716 2 года назад

      Whether you use Vanguard or M1 you actually own the ETF that you invested in so that if M1 goes under, you still own your shares.

  • @christopherguarnieri7439
    @christopherguarnieri7439 2 года назад +2

    You can always use the Yale etf portfolio if you want a portfolio that is more diversified. You can diversify even more and do the S&P 500 and add the Russell 2000.

  • @happytravels2480
    @happytravels2480 2 года назад +2

    Good analysis Rob. The fact that this advisor recommended adding commodities and gold,and said that it would help him get better results, makes me feel a lot better about not using an advisor. I know you always recommend small cap value, but every time I run it through portfolio visualizer, it seems do worse and doesn’t outperform the S & P 500. I don’t think I’m a fan of small caps. There are so many of them, they are extremely volatile, they don’t pay dividends, and they are often the stocks that fare the worst during a downturn. I’m ok with sticking to the small cap allocation in my total market funds.

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад

      Your reasons for sticking with the total market index make sense. The part about portfolio visualizer is misleading though.
      Small cap value (SCV) has consistently outperformed large growth (S&P 500) across the historical data.
      The issue seems to be time scale. Yes, the S&P 500 has outperformed SCV over the last decade or two. But we have more than a hundred years of data in the US, and even more international data showing the opposite. You're missing the forest for the tree.
      You are right that smaller companies are more risky (and volatile) because they have an uncertain future value. For this reason, their prices are "cheap" relative to big, popular companies. Across 30-year periods and international stock markets, this portion of the market has historically produced higher returns.

    • @happytravels2480
      @happytravels2480 2 года назад +1

      @@ajrobbins368 That all sounds reasonable and I don’t doubt those facts. I guess my analysis of VTSAX, VOO and VBR didn’t go back that far. I only have 15 years left until retirement though. Not sure I want to roll the dice on small companies that haven’t proven themselves. At this stage, I’m all about large, boring, value stocks that have been around forever and pay healthy dividends.

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +1

      @@happytravels2480 You seem like a very reasonable person with a solid plan. As Rob said at the end of this video, whatever plan you can follow for the long-term will produce the best outcome.
      *Why take unnecessary risk?*
      Only if you need the money.
      Sometimes people don't invest or even save until later in life, so they may need a small cap value "boost" to have enough money for retirement.

    • @happytravels2480
      @happytravels2480 2 года назад +1

      @@ajrobbins368 That’s a great way to put it. “Only take the risk if you need to”. I have reached the point where I don’t need to take added risk anymore. I’m definitely more conservative and falling into the preservation/income phase vs risk/growth as of late.

    • @davidredding7694
      @davidredding7694 Год назад +1

      @@happytravels2480 I’m also conservative about risk now at 65. But somewhat changed my mind when I saw my in-laws kept a 60/40 portfolio until there death in their 90’s. They left there children nice inheritance.

  • @CryptoAshkn
    @CryptoAshkn Год назад

    i have 5 etfs, but i cant have certain stocks for a few reasons so i have to. otherwise i would go with 3

  • @sprattmann4541
    @sprattmann4541 2 года назад

    Try it with the best 1 fund portfolio. IJS the S&P Value 600.

  • @Bananamaltastic
    @Bananamaltastic 2 года назад

    Hi Rob, for me, gold is an alternative to fixed income rather than equity. I prefer to compare its performance to bonds than US or Intl stock market. In my portfolio (25 y/o), I'm currently 90% equity, 5% bonds, 5% gold. If it slightly underperforms, oh welll

    • @rob_berger
      @rob_berger  2 года назад

      Interesting. I've not considered that approach. Don't you have concerns though given that gold is more volatile than short to intermediate term bonds?

    • @Bananamaltastic
      @Bananamaltastic 2 года назад

      @@rob_berger I'm not bothered by it's volatility for long-term investing. An important consideration is it's extremely low correlation to equity. According to the asset correlations page on Portfolio Visualizer, GLD has 0.07 cor to VTI and 0.42 to BND. BND has a 0.12 cor to VTI.

    • @rocksez5101
      @rocksez5101 2 года назад

      5 percent tilt is inconsequential. Demo it, you will see.

  • @richardm.441
    @richardm.441 2 года назад

    Which Small cap value mutual fund or etf has a strong long term track record with very low expenses?

  • @djscra89
    @djscra89 2 года назад

    I am 80% in cash right now due to a job change, and my question is: Do i get back in the market all at once today, or dollar cost average over the next weeks?, months? This is for bucket 2 or 3 depending how you look at it.

    • @vikramkaushik
      @vikramkaushik 8 месяцев назад

      Do lump sum and get into market quickly.

  • @rocksez5101
    @rocksez5101 2 года назад

    Just a guess, but would assume Personal Capital is presenting portfolio complication to imply benefit from their AUM services. Their free tools are good, but as soon as they see the $ amount you link to the models, they are like bears on honey. Want to find out how many ways you can say “no”?

  • @CallsignEskimo-l3o
    @CallsignEskimo-l3o 2 года назад

    I enjoy running scenarios in Portfolio Visualizer and have found two interesting points:
    1. International Developed Markets have a higher CAGR and lower Standard Deviation than Global Markets, and
    2. Having 20% Mid Cap Value has a higher CAGR and a lower Standard Deviation than Small Cap Value.
    So my take on the four fund portfolio is: 30% Total US Market, 20% International Developed Markets ex US, 30% Total Bond Market and 20% Mid Cap Value,

    • @theotherview1716
      @theotherview1716 2 года назад

      Huh? How’d you get such a high international investment?

  • @vinyl1Earthlink
    @vinyl1Earthlink 2 года назад

    Say, Rob, you scheduled the video with Michael Kitces for 8/5 - is that really the date you intended?

  • @ajrobbins368
    @ajrobbins368 2 года назад

    RISK = REWARD over the long-term (meaning 15+ years)
    Know how much risk you will need to reach financial freedom. Check the academic research for well documented risk-reward factors.

  • @fabiGBOtown
    @fabiGBOtown 2 года назад

    I wonder if putting 10% in high dividends etfs 4 or 5 would give enough dividends to supercharge a roth account. What do you think? Jepi, divo, schd etc. Is what I'm talking about

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +1

      Dividends are NO different from selling shares, except the company decides the amount and timing.
      If you choose to reinvest them, congratulations, you now own the same $ amount as you started with.
      ALL long-term price appreciation depends on the accumulation of company assets.
      Dividends actually reduce company assets because the shareholders receive cash directly from the company balance sheet.

    • @fabiGBOtown
      @fabiGBOtown 2 года назад

      @@ajrobbins368 thank you. Is it the same with Reits? In the example used for growing a roth with dividends?

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад

      @@fabiGBOtown Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are structured a bit differently than most companies. They are legally mandated to distribute profits to shareholders as periodic cash dividends. They also make-up a tiny portion of the total stock market.
      As I understand it, these companies specialize in specific real estate niches (such as infrastructure, industrial, commercial, or residential properties) and use low interest loans to collect rent/lease payments and turn a profit for shareholders.
      That's most of what I know about REITs. I imagine acquiring more rental properties/lease agreements is what drives asset growth. And when property values rise.

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад

      @@fabiGBOtown I'm not sure which example of "growing Roth with dividends" you mean. One of Rob Berger's videos mentions holding assets that are expected to grow the most in a Roth IRA. That means ETFs and stocks, including REITs. He said bonds can go in the traditional IRA instead.
      No one is sure exactly what the tax laws will look like 20 years from now, so I have heard differing recommendations about tax-advantaged accounts. I highly recommend researching it or, if you have enough money at stake, meeting with a real tax advisor.

  • @freedomlife3623
    @freedomlife3623 2 года назад +1

    If we can base our retirement investment outcome on 5% return, why anyone should take on more risk and spending more time to fussy about it? We need more time to enjoy the life instead worrying & playing with the market.

    • @kimappreciateslife
      @kimappreciateslife 2 года назад

      I’m beginning to feel that way after 2020-2022. I feel like I’m ready to have a life besides stressing about the market and my portfolio

    • @ajrobbins368
      @ajrobbins368 2 года назад +1

      Some investors don't have enough money for a comfortable retirement. The extra risk could help them achieve their financial goal of not running out of money in old age.

  • @theotherview1716
    @theotherview1716 2 года назад

    VTI 75%
    ESS 10%
    VTIA 5%
    BND 10%