He's at the top level of play? He's just a whale with a lot of money. Anyone with the buyin can play. And his play in this hand is an excellent demonstration of what a fraud he is in the world of statistics.
Poker is the only game where one is either fulsomely praised or wildly condemned for exactly the same action, depending on how one's opponent reacts. (IOW, if his opponent had called Nate's shove, he would've looked like a moron, kicked himself for the rest of his life, and the commentators would have denounced his bluff as reckless. Instead, he's now a genius forever.)
fantastic spot to bluff since he knows that check raise on the flop puts him on a set/2 pair that turns Full House or even AJ with the Ace of Spades great bluff and Nate Silver deserves credit for knowing how to work his opponent this time
It’s only an excellent play because the 2 most incredible and lucky cards came on the turn and river. The Jack comes and now suddenly, he can have J2/J8/22…then the spade comes lol…comically lucky run out that Silver capitalized on.
Yes but it's rational and well played at every step. He obviously didn't think his opponent had a flush to begin with and thought he could get some easy chips. Then when the other cards appeared, he realized he could make a credible story for betting the turn and the river so that's what he did.
How can you fold there? His line doesn't make sense. Check raises flop then when the board pairs on the turn keep betting again? another spade comes he bets again? I'm sure he could have a full house but would a set check raise flop? Hand is way too strong to fold.
Yeah, I am calling... Maybe I am a donk but bb don't have enough Kx and Ax of spades there. People are going to talk about J2o and J8o but I know how I would play and the guy in the river is trying to represent a full house but I thing Q high flush is too strong in this situation.
@@ThePodgeiscool But you cannot fold, you can obviously raise, but checking could be tricky also ... But about range. In heads up, there is everything he could have. It was actually really bad play from guy with second nut flush on the flop. That's it
@@misantrophymaster1006 no he can't have anything, he has a raising range of mostly very strong hands and some weak hands and he has checking raise of mostly weak hands medium strength hand and some strong hands. Every maneuver in poker narrows down your range. Tough call by the SB vs a player who underbluffs
So you are telling me that 32o is not just a random hand in this spot, it could be also raise preflop which means his hand is weaker? Lol. Like you didn't play FT HU at all .
@@misantrophymaster1006 yes correct. Bb bluff raising range preflop are hands that don't mind getting 3 bet off their equity like 84o or 32o and hands that want to play for stacks. So when he checks preflop he doesn't have many suited broadways or AA-55. Thus his checking range is mostly weak hands that didn't bluff, and hands like K2s or J8s that don't want to raise/fold and be blown off their equity. He will have 82o,82s,J8o,J8s,J2s,J2o so he actually has a lot of full houses in range and very little nut flushes bc he checked back the button preflop. Hope that makes sense 👍🏼
I was just in a similar situation in my 2-5 game I had pocket queens with queen of diamonds then 4 diamonds hit on the river which was also a paired board on the turn and guy shoved for a huge bet I was leaving fold pretty hard the king and ace of diamonds were not on board. Went into the tank and just decided I’d be sick if I was getting bluffed and called…he only had a missed straight but put my particular hand in a very tough spot
How he Come to headsup if he fold flush in headsup. Wtf When I paly ukrainian players call me with Jack only. Never fold in this situation. Even if he had A of spade or duces or J8. Its FINAL hand lets go to sleeep. Did he even won this?
So if a statistician were to say X has a 70% probability of happening, and then it doesn't happen, does that mean they are wrong? Or does that mean that the 30% occurrence instead happened?
@@snex000 I guess when there's been a large enough sample size and then you see how many standard deviations or whatnot there are between the predicted outcomes and actual outcomes. I don't know, I'm not a statistician. But picking one prediction as an example isn't proof.
this is so foolish, the only hands possible AS PLAYED are pocket 2s, or 8s or a bluff or bluff catcher. And even then he most likely woulda raised with those holdings. Kings aren't a possibility at all cuz he woulda put it all in the middle pre. the king came on the river so theres exclusively left with the ace of spades, or he could have quad jacks, the percentage of that is so low you HAVE the take it. This was the definition of a punt.
Anyone here from On The Edge?
Yes
🖐
Nate's new book "On the Edge" sent me here!
Not sure where all this hate is coming from... He found a spot and made a sick bluff, well done indeed
Poker leans right wing and most silver fans are left wing
@@calabiyau9269 interesting that you haven't met a single Silver fan
@@dessertfirstgateau i have? What are you even trying to say
I love how the first 4 comments are all hate on him when he’s at the top level of play..
He's at the top level of play? He's just a whale with a lot of money. Anyone with the buyin can play. And his play in this hand is an excellent demonstration of what a fraud he is in the world of statistics.
You HAVE to show the bluff there!!! Excellent play.
Poker is the only game where one is either fulsomely praised or wildly condemned for exactly the same action, depending on how one's opponent reacts. (IOW, if his opponent had called Nate's shove, he would've looked like a moron, kicked himself for the rest of his life, and the commentators would have denounced his bluff as reckless. Instead, he's now a genius forever.)
fantastic spot to bluff since he knows that check raise on the flop puts him on a set/2 pair that turns Full House or even AJ with the Ace of Spades
great bluff and Nate Silver deserves credit for knowing how to work his opponent this time
Love the play. Excellent bluff.
What's up with that Full Tilt jersey? I almost thought this is a video back in the old days 🤣🤣🤣
Yeah agreed. What a chump.
4 comments of unwarranted silver hate. Great bluff
It’s only an excellent play because the 2 most incredible and lucky cards came on the turn and river. The Jack comes and now suddenly, he can have J2/J8/22…then the spade comes lol…comically lucky run out that Silver capitalized on.
BlablaBla Its not a Jokerstars.
Headsup of FINAL table.
Lets finish the saga.
Yes but it's rational and well played at every step. He obviously didn't think his opponent had a flush to begin with and thought he could get some easy chips. Then when the other cards appeared, he realized he could make a credible story for betting the turn and the river so that's what he did.
How do you wear a Full Tilt Jersey?
With flush and a big bet. Dang. I'm not calling the bet. I'll push All in..💯💯💯
Ofc.
He must allin him in Turn
Or call him on river.
Headsup of FINAL table.
aaaand thats why youre not at the final table buddy
Lol at the full tilt jersey
Wtf
He’s looking at the cards, prolly should have been checking out the villain, he was bricking it. 😂
How can you fold there?
His line doesn't make sense.
Check raises flop then when the board pairs on the turn keep betting again?
another spade comes he bets again?
I'm sure he could have a full house but would a set check raise flop?
Hand is way too strong to fold.
Jacks up is the only hand that defeats your sound analysis.
I’m calling all day
OK
Ballsy lol. Love it.
Yeah, I am calling... Maybe I am a donk but bb don't have enough Kx and Ax of spades there. People are going to talk about J2o and J8o but I know how I would play and the guy in the river is trying to represent a full house but I thing Q high flush is too strong in this situation.
i love to hear experts speaking of someone's range when he is sitting on BB and just checked back a call from D/SB...
any understanding of poker?
The check preflop develops a range for the Bb
@@ThePodgeiscool
But you cannot fold, you can obviously raise, but checking could be tricky also ... But about range. In heads up, there is everything he could have. It was actually really bad play from guy with second nut flush on the flop. That's it
@@misantrophymaster1006 no he can't have anything, he has a raising range of mostly very strong hands and some weak hands and he has checking raise of mostly weak hands medium strength hand and some strong hands. Every maneuver in poker narrows down your range. Tough call by the SB vs a player who underbluffs
So you are telling me that 32o is not just a random hand in this spot, it could be also raise preflop which means his hand is weaker? Lol. Like you didn't play FT HU at all .
@@misantrophymaster1006 yes correct. Bb bluff raising range preflop are hands that don't mind getting 3 bet off their equity like 84o or 32o and hands that want to play for stacks. So when he checks preflop he doesn't have many suited broadways or AA-55. Thus his checking range is mostly weak hands that didn't bluff, and hands like K2s or J8s that don't want to raise/fold and be blown off their equity. He will have 82o,82s,J8o,J8s,J2s,J2o so he actually has a lot of full houses in range and very little nut flushes bc he checked back the button preflop. Hope that makes sense 👍🏼
I was just in a similar situation in my 2-5 game I had pocket queens with queen of diamonds then 4 diamonds hit on the river which was also a paired board on the turn and guy shoved for a huge bet
I was leaving fold pretty hard the king and ace of diamonds were not on board. Went into the tank and just decided I’d be sick if I was getting bluffed and called…he only had a missed straight but put my particular hand in a very tough spot
Man, this Is headsup of MTT.
If he hit full house give him a hand.
If no I win.
Its not 5of9 of FINAL table..
Cant fold this bluff
on the edge 打卡
hahaha no courageous call from a courageous bet
May or-else
I would fold
How he Come to headsup if he fold flush in headsup. Wtf
When I paly ukrainian players call me with Jack only.
Never fold in this situation.
Even if he had A of spade or duces or J8.
Its FINAL hand lets go to sleeep.
Did he even won this?
The Skinny is on trend
Top statistician In what
Statistics
in getting things wrong
I’m pretty sure he works for NASA so all the stats he makes up are just fabricated
What a stupid fold . It upsets me to watch this video
I don’t play but I would’ve played that flush.
Are you sure you wouldn't have preferred to split?
Top Statistician? How many times has he been wrong?
At this point, he's doing worse than random chance. Literally a monkey flipping a coin has better results.
So if a statistician were to say X has a 70% probability of happening, and then it doesn't happen, does that mean they are wrong? Or does that mean that the 30% occurrence instead happened?
@@MackeyDeeez How many times in a row does the 30 have to happen before you think the statistician is wrong?
@@snex000 I guess when there's been a large enough sample size and then you see how many standard deviations or whatnot there are between the predicted outcomes and actual outcomes. I don't know, I'm not a statistician. But picking one prediction as an example isn't proof.
@@MackeyDeeez Nate Silver has been consistently wrong for about a decade now. He stopped doing serious work and started shilling for democrats.
this is so foolish, the only hands possible AS PLAYED are pocket 2s, or 8s or a bluff or bluff catcher. And even then he most likely woulda raised with those holdings. Kings aren't a possibility at all cuz he woulda put it all in the middle pre. the king came on the river so theres exclusively left with the ace of spades, or he could have quad jacks, the percentage of that is so low you HAVE the take it. This was the definition of a punt.
Bad play
Bad play by both😅
Silver chek with hand.
LIVE Tell.
Where I am in this story.
Can someone stake me.
I am pro with no money.
Stake me
This is the worst commentary possible. 👎🏻
I downvoted just because of the title
I like his substack