Economic Decoupling US - China | AIM Summit London 2023
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- Опубликовано: 6 окт 2024
- "Economic Decoupling US - China"
Speakers
Stephen Roach - Senior Fellow, Paul Tsai China Center of the
Yale Law School, Former Chief Economist and Asia Chairman,
Morgan Stanley
Charles Myers - Chairman and Founder, Signum Global
Advisors
Moderator
Dani Burger - TV Anchor, Bloomberg
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May China and the rest of us on this planet continue to prosper. The world does not have to be a zero sum game. The future belongs to the cooperation of all mankind.
Too bad the US doesn't see it that way. All they know is the zero sum game. Probably true to 4 or the 5 eyes also. New Zealand government is more practical.
What a delightful prayer! Not mentioning the names of aggregious, malicious, mendacious culprits of ANTI-prosperity, is a very wise noble choice. The old saying: "If you have nothing nice to say about someone, dont say anything at all".
Power to the peaceful! May the UNhumble few of this world move to Mars asap, before there is nothing left for the rest of us to "inherit".
☝️😊✌
Thanks Theo. I just wrote a reply, but i may have sent it as a comment by mistake.
Lol
Absolutely.
When the guys said that " China is absolutely on the wrong side of the Ukraine war" everything else he said about China become irrelevant to the subject in the conversation.
Truth 🙌
@@accountantthe3394 no war, peace talks please, peacekeepers needed
When he said china is on the wrong side of the Ukraine war, we know that he is living in fantasy land. The US does not even want a negotiated peace or cease fire at the moment. They prefer the thousands of Ukrainian people dying for no purpose other than to keep trying to weaken Russia. Those who are following the actual events know the truth. This guy is only in the discussion to shape the opinions of those who are not following what is actually happening.
🤣 Couldnt agree more
There is a very serious problem with your logic! Politics is an extension of people's livelihood and economy, and war is an extension of politics. No one will go to war to kill people. How do you feel that there is no connection between them?
Funny quote. People in china can't change their political party but they can change policy.
People in America can change political party but can't change policy.
So true !!!
Such a sharp quote! Mind if I quote this line later?
@@mochen9282 of course. I heard it from someone else as well and I thought it is brilliant and captures the current global dynamic.
Excellent statement!
Right on 💯 👌
US is trying to do to China the same thing they did to rising Japan economic power on the 80's , but China is different now from Japan then , because China holds the key important sectors in economic independence and growth such as Supply , Market demand ,technology and production which Japan has little had because Japan relied on export for consumers while China can literally sell on their own country with 1.4bn consumers not to mention its largest allies in brics .
The difference is China doesn't have US military bases
@@DukeLM totally agree. Japan doesn't have political independence.
@@suryaprasanth9105 many Vietnamese factories are actually owned and operated by Chinese business. Because a lot of the low tech low value added sectors are no longer profitable in China. However Vietnam still struggles to rise in high sectors at a large scale
@@suryaprasanth9105 How much you've written best describe the purposes of BRICS+
@@DukeLM do you know how much money it takes to run an average size military base? although the colonies and vassals pay the bulk of the upkeep, but it's unsustainable.
US started the decoupling, and I believe China will complete the process.
Looks like US is stopping Chinese from spending money on US ... LoL
The US was forced to. China just does not want to share its goodness. They want to keep it in China.
It will peak at 15% with 85% of manufacturing still reliant on China.
it's ironic that Charles said the beltn road items are failed and Chinese government could lose billions of money, don't he recall that the US government spent trillions US dollars to provoke wars everywhere in the world? not to mention that millions of lives were lost via their hands.
one builds, but another one destructs
Decoupling with China is a lot cheaper than a war. Time for the 'west to decouple trade with China, China will continue to be paranoid and feel threatened by the 'west' and it's neighbors.
The threat to Russia and China is democracy....This ideology is a serious threat to their authoritarian rule.
Glasnost (“openness” opened the way for democratic reform movements) started the collapse of the USSR....the very same thing that Putin and Xi fears.
No repressive regime is stable, it is always on guard from the inside and externally for any perceived threat to its dictators.
The guy in the middle is a joke. To say the B&R is an unmitigated failure is so blatantly ignorant of what each of the participating countries' needs. And to advocate for war is so 'unthinkable' to put it in his words. He obviously has never really thought it out.
@@suryaprasanth9105 india is low IQ nation.. doesnt had much hope..
to the second speaker. it is the us on the wrong side of the ukraine-rusian war. not china. us runs into all its troubles it's because of spending extremely high %age of budget on wars, and set up hundreds of military bases all around the world. all the american's saving have gone to all these military bases. wasted.
that speaker seems ignorant in every aspect. just a warmed over salesman.
@@siamcharm7904 Some one just looks intellectual but not from inside. He fully embraced the neocon ideas and has no critical question whether what the US does is insane.
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There is a distinct difference between US and China. China sells products to the world while the US sells debts to the world. I think the Chinese model is more sustainable.
@@oneviwatara9384 But the USA don't.
@@cristinaximera9663
US military industrial complex are the most profitable companies in the world and oils and LNG and 🤣
If China sell products to other counties, then other countries will be in debt.
@@oneviwatara9384 As long as the the military complex doesn't have to fight with pension for funds. Have you seen the violence of pension reforms in France ? Does the military stand a chance ?
@@bobmorane4926
Nukes vs people, who do you think going to win? 😂🤣😂
in the last 8 weeks or so presidents from france, brazil, malaysia, spain and so on with their bus load of business leader going to china,what does that tell us?
Obviously that Charles guy didn't see it.
congratulations to China , leader of the free world, peacemaker and to the Yuan the real reserve currency
ok wumao
Wow, first time to hear someone say it out loud that the U.S will go to war with China, for a place that they have admitted as part of the Chinese territory. Well let’s see then😂
That's all talks. The US wouldn't even dare to take on North Korea.
President Biden has publicly stated four times that the United States would defend Taiwan if China invades Taiwan. I believe that Xi and the CCP understand the message.
Israel is a COUNTRY per the UN. Taiwan is NOT. I don't understand how this guy can run the joint he runs. He speaks from both sides of his mouth.
What the genocide American Indians said “WHITE MAN SPEAKS WITH FORKED TONGUE”.
They knew from experience what the American colonisers are all about, lie and steal for their own ends.
Huawei lost 5G phones but it is still dominating player in 5G business. 5G basestation installations in China is likely surpassing over 50% of world total.
I just came back after Huawei 7nm breakthrough, its just the beginning, this video is gonna be hilarious to watch in 10 years.
Mr Roach was tolerating but finally lost it with the other guy when the latter started commenting about Taiwan at 36.15, typical Neo cons. Mr Roach is a wise and learned man. It's good for Mr Myers he founded Signum.
US competes by eliminating the competition. It's the Tanya Harding syndrome.
In the end, both Tonya Harding and Nancy Kerrigan didn't ended well... They both didn't accomplished what they were setup to do.
America: “China’s doing well, let’s get the crowbar out! I hear China goes to ice skating practice at 3pm…”
I very much agree with Stephen Roach that it seems that in recent years the US policy makers are losing the basic skill --- think.
Because they are too corrupt and selfish!It ruins everything....
@passers-by jealousy and selfishness killed themselves.
@@laichuonkui69 says the bully China.
Not the US policy makers, but US American voters under Democracy.
The vanity seems to be incredibly cheapened made cannabis:)
This guy said, “China is on the wrong side in the Ukraine war”, when the US and it’s western allies (puppets) keeps calling china the enemy, why would China be on the side of the “enemy”?
Common sense isn't so common in the US.
ruclips.net/video/4B3UmwZKQ58/видео.html
Would you be rather on the side of Putin, who invaded Ukraine and continue to shoot missiles into its cities, killing civilians and destroying cities....there are now more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees.
Yes, China supports another authoritarian regime.
The threat to Russia and China is democracy....This ideology is a serious threat to their authoritarian rule. Glasnost (“openness” opened the way for democratic reform movements) started the collapse of the USSR....the very same thing that Putin and Xi now fears.
US reporters would automatically add the words like dictatorship on story in China even though the story has nothing to do with politics. These people are trained to just recite these words like parrots.
He is calling China that because he is defending USA hegemony.
Hello Charles, you believe that China will NOT use their nukes, but I can tell you that: when China is about losing Taiwan, when the main land of China is under severe attack by the US, during the War of Liberating TW (Note that the TW issue is unfinished China's civil war, called "the National Liberation War" since 1946, that is reason the Chinese military is named as "People's Liberation Army", the PLA, after TW is liberated their will change the name). Of course, they will use whatever the power they have, which includes their nuclear capacity for sure. Because none of Chinese political leads, even citizens will accept Taiwan being independent country.
Reason??? If Taiwan become an independent country, they will invite US military and US nukes staying in Taiwan for sure (the US nukes were in TW before 1972), otherwise TW will never felt safe and will never be safe while neighboring with China. If so, China will become an inland country. Okay, when you don't want to see China having power to control Taiwan Strait, do you think China will allow Americans holding nukes, staying TW to look after China's front gate???
BTW, If I were you, I would totally support China's plan for peaceful unification and to make some deals out of it that you may get some benefits for the US and good for the world too.
It seemed to me the US seriously underestimating China's determination to take back Taiwan at all cost. The fact that they think China will not go to nuclear war to take back Taiwan showed what is wrong with the US China policy. No wonder they keep doing provoking things, like what Nancy Pelosi did by visiting Taiwan for no apparent good reason. Taiwan isn't just a sovereignty issue, that alone is worthy enough for China to go to the death and life battle, but Taiwan is also a national security issue for China. Just like the official said, without controlling Taiwan strait, will put China at risk. Foreign hostile navies can always pass through that straits unless China take control of it. The Chinese are generally rational indeed, but when the issue of their sovereignty and security at risk, they will fight to the death. Where do you think the Japanese learn their kamikaze from? The Chinese are also generally avoiding conflict, but when they decided to jump into conflict, you will find how capable of violent they are. They will make ISIS look like a nice guy.
Nuclear war mean prc die out too not just the world only ! 😂
@@nickng241 Of course!!
When did Taiwan belong to China? When did China Taiwan before?
@@Justsaying-cg2nz ??? Go read the ROC's aka Taiwan's own constitution, old kidd!! It's stated very clearly there, that Taiwan is part of China!!
The threat to Russia and China is democracy....This ideology is a serious threat to their authoritarian rule.
Glasnost (“openness” opened the way for democratic reform movements) started the collapse of the USSR....the very same thing that Putin and Xi fears.
China will continue to be paranoid and feel threatened by the 'west' and it's neighbors.
No repressive regime is stable, it is always on guard from the inside and externally for any perceived threat to its dictators.
This is the reason they they will always be belligerent to the world.
Love Stephen Roach, his practical, non-idealogical views are most refreshing!
The old man had best line in the end 🤣
Never going to happen for US American voted Joe Biden for US President. Were they "thinking" then.
Why contain China? Why not spend your resources (instead of the military) to build the US more competitive and grow its own economy faster? Containment is similar to trying to disrupt your colleague from getting smarter & better than you. This is truly a shameful act, instead of improving yourself.
There is a syndrome called loser mentality. White supremacists already lost their confidence in competing with the hardworking Asians , which absolutely devastating to their racist belief. What an arrogant loser!
The best statement is at 43:00 when Mr. Roach telling the Charles Myers guy it is time e to start to think. That is priceless! Charles is the kind of dangerous empty barrels not just good for making noise. I like to see Charles send his sons and daughters to go fight, if he has any.
Charles probably didn't realised UK's inflation had reached 10% while US is better at around 6%, but with a looming banking collapse hanging around both US & Europe. Maybe privileged people like Charles can't feel pain that the average folks in US or UK feels, just like how disconnected both the US & UK governments were from the people on the ground!
@@marvinfok65 it seems like everyone is responsible for this shitty situation; the elites out of touch with reality, and regular Joes keep voting them back in power again and again. As the result, there isn't any incentive for the ruling class to make changes and improve anything. We are in the vicious cycle, while the elites busy trying to figure out how to send our tax money for other ppl to fight war and send our sons and daughters to battle field. How about spend our money to focus on improving our school system to educate the next generations.... ??
Some one forgot to tell Charles the Western exceptionalism has left the room ...
Charles said US would go to war w China over Taiwan. 😂
Like how? Using hypersonic missiles..which it doesn't yet have but China has in abundance, or what?
BTW..does Americans have d will to do that? I know d Chinese has a lot when it comes to their sovereignty.
strange? I presumed this guy think Taiwan belongs to USA and not a province of China
Chinese don't invade chinese own territory what a joke
The westerners needs a paradigm shift in their thinking and not to this perpetual brainwashing
have you ever wondered why after a decade of "Pivot" US only managed to enlist India to form Quad? US lost the standoff with 2 carrier battle groups at South China Sea in 2016 and that's not lost on ASEAN countries.
nobody wants to be cannon fodders to keep the empire of lies alive.
Charles going to war comment is a dream but not in reality.
According to the recent documents leak, the US defense department dertermine that most likely they won't be able to intercept the Chinese DF-27 hyper sonic missiles.
They love to rise tension but afraid of war especially with other superpowers. They are coward
As a Chinese, I can tell the United States that the Taiwan issue is definitely the bottom line that China cannot tolerate. You can't imagine that China can make any sacrifices to keep Taiwan from breaking up. This is a scar that has not healed from China's century-old history of humiliation. It is deeply rooted in the heart and blood of every Chinese. It is no exaggeration to say that China will do everything possible to prevent Taiwan from being separated when it knows that it will lose.
@@suryaprasanth9105 Then give it try to see who will get hurt!
@@suryaprasanth9105You as a geopolitical enthusiast, do you believe it's possible to make the Taiwan govt towards China side? You're not a qualified geopolitical enthusiast.
@@suryaprasanth9105 I give you a clue to understand, a Taiwanese guy gave a street interview in Taiwan, ask them what relationship is the Taiwan and ROC(Republic of China), half of them forgot the ROC is the exact name of their country, they only remember Taiwan. That's a sign how brainwashed they are. Pls ask yourself, it's possible in your country?
I can understand why they're against reunification. The old dynasty always don't want to be eliminated, the people fears to a uncertain future, especially if you were brainwashed since you born.
PRC had proposed "One country, Two systems" to coexist the current Taiwan system, I think it's best solution for mainland and Taiwan people.
And actually the world didn't accept the fact of Taiwan as part of China. They want the Taiwan govt as a weapon towards China. Why do you expect those colonists wish the rest of world to be peaceful? Never happened. They're just claiming on lips. Ask yourself a question. do you trust the WEST, or did they worth your trust, especially after Ukraine-Russia war, Chip sanction on China, their greedy, their hypocrisy, their shameless.
@@suryaprasanth9105 Do you know when Taiwan started electing government officers aka President, VP, etc...
1990's. From 1945 to 1989, Taiwan was also under one party control aka KMT. Understand Taiwan history before making judgement. Like China, Taiwan government also declare they are the sol Chinese government since 30's.
Just remember, if US acted on Taiwan island, China will invade. China just want the island, if US military is use, China does not need the 23 millions, just the island. And if one shot onto the mainland, China's ICBM will be launch with US address on it's guided warhead. US call this tech, "take it to the enemy"
@@suryaprasanth9105 China does not want to use force. Itll be like killing their own. But if US keeps pushing and provoking, they will have no other choice. At this point, I think some powerful hawks in the US are truly pushing for a war. Insanity.
fully agree with the senior gentleman, to have a constructive relationship benefits both the us and china, as well as the whole world
Only when both side treat each other as equal. Can US ever treat China as equal.
china can f right off, hope to go to war with them...
The West never has condemned Israel for what it has been doing in Palestine. What side is the US or Europe on? Right or wrong? Hypocrisy.
Companies and productions on the lower totem pole of value chain will continue and accelerate their move out of China. This is due to the Chinese competitors increasingly climbing the value chain. Many of the productions moved out actually belong to Chinese companies. As they continue to advance their 4th industrial revolution this off shoring will only accelerate.
1. The US will not defend Taiwan because it doesn’t have the capability if it’s not using nuclear weapons. China has developed its military capabilities to self defense in navy and air forces, the US navy and air forces have to travel across the Pacific Ocean to reach Taiwan, that won’t bring much power and its not sustainable because the war will be at China”a door place and military supply is much much more sustainable than the US. And Japan, South Korea and the Philippines don’t have much military power except the US bases, which is still not sustainable enough because China”s production capacity can continue the war, not to say China will most probably have the support from North Korea, Russia and Iran, all of these countries have great military production capabilities!
2. The US has forced high end chips productions out of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to the US, so it has absolutely no interests to protect any of these province or countries! The US goes to or support wars only when it’s beneficial.
3. If there’s a war in Taiwan, and the US meddle in, you”d better wish China wins over Taiwan and finish! If not it will definitely escalate into a year between two nuclear power, or maybe more nuclear power s will join, cannot imagine the result. Maybe we can just nuke each other, and destroy all human beings, on then the world can be quiet!
You are absolutely right. But unfortunately, according to servey, more than half of the Taiwan's population especially the younger generation believe that the US will come defend them militarily if China comes to liberate Taiwan. Thanks to the DPP brainwashing ability.
@@suryaprasanth9105 How one forgot past US allies left behind, South Vietnam, Cuban, Iraq and most resent Afghan and soon Ukrainians. Make note, USA also announced, if China invade, US too will bomb the living hell out of Taiwan major cities into the dark age. Google it, it's posted everywhere "USA attack TSMC Taiwan planets". US bomb German's Nord Stream Pipelines.
Poor Charles has a poor worldview. I was laughing when Charles ask China to continue to loan when borrowers default on the debt.
Just go on with decoupling as no one in the world needs the US economic mess.
especially the debt US exports
China leads the world in 37 out of 44 critical technologies and America only leads in 7, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
Aspi is a warmonger. If it serves to provoke conflict Aspi will say china leads in 99 out of 100 just to move the world towards more conflict.
China steals Nations Technologies!
ASPI is funded by US defense contractors, you have to take everything with a heavy dose of salt.
@@willengel2458 Yes it is, which makes this report something to look at. It possibly couldnt be Chinese propaganda.
If that’s the cases then why China needed foreign direct investments in the first place?
I salute this senior man.very wise thinking.
agreed, the other speaker is actually an AI
Totally agreed, the wise old man have travel a lot mixing with corporate figures in China and know what is he is talking. There is no such thing as security threat, the minute your country are widely open. Countries have to manage this so call security threat simple as that. You have to compete but don't be sore loser and complain these as security threat.
Agree
I agree
Chinese agreeing with each other. 😂 Hail to the ccp 😂NOT!
In comparison, the Chinese system of government is holistic, super efficient, very organized, competent and focus.
Its leaders are dedicated, very well educated, trained, and experienced in governing a huge pro-business, hard-working, fast learning and innovative population!
Hence the leaders can work and plan with the people to effectively implement and execute national plan targets every 5 years in short terms, and in long terms of 50 to 100 years!
However the unique and effective Chinese ways of governance cannot be exported to or copied by any other Governments the world over! 😊
Correct, because thete is a long history of meritocracy in China versus so call elected representative government in the contemporary West.
China busy figuring how to do business, west busy figuring how many genders we have😂
You can understand that before being able to become the leader of China, it has managed more than 500 million people. In other words, to become the chairman of China, you must have come from the grassroots. Generally, they will struggle at the grassroots level for 20 years. During this process, if the leadership is not effective, they will be eliminated.
Saying that Bri is a failure comes out as a testament to the abject failure of the american efforts to counter BRI since nobody has heard about the american counter offer to the Chinese BRI. What's the acronym again ? B3W , what is that ?
Containment is simply trying to destroy your neighbor when you find your neighbor getting richer than you. This is a negative action.
It will not matter whatever USA does or doesn't do. USA has demonstrated that it will not shed any blood for non-anglo Saxons, in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, and in Iraq.
US will not shed blood for anyone except for US (US first), that includes Anglo Saxon
Decoupling will suffer both but US will suffer more.
Have to love Steven Roach! He is not here to try sell a few books, he is here to try to bring sanity back to people, in order to save the world.
'bring sanity back to people', wow I love how you put it straight out like that!
Stephen is unfortunately unbelievably naive. They aren't our friends, and their behaviour since being integrated into the economic world order has been everything against the spirit of a free and open market.
Wow, from Steven Roach point of view, without Taiwan & USA brain power, China can't survive and will return back to the backward time, the time Western & Japan States invaded & try to destroy China. Steven Roach just look up, from 2011 of the US Wolf Amendment act, banning China from ISS. China's Tiangong will soon be only space station available and guess who is in charge, thanks to Obama, Trump and Biden China support. View, since 2022, view (youtube) China break thru into manufacturing machines for Chip and Chip of....
I suspect that the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily, but remember, Taiwan is a Chinese province. Jimmy Carter even admitted that in a televized speech in 1978. So it's fair to assume that the Chinese government has set up Taiwan as a herring, a huge and of course red one.
The young guy is Totally Wrong about the War in Taiwan. IF for whatever reason PRC starts the war, US will not directly involve militarily because it could not conclude This War, or PRC will not yield this War, even if US wins it. Taiwan is so important to CCP/PRC there is no end-strategy for US except the occupation of Chinese Mainland, which is impossible. This will be 10 times worse than Vietnam War for US.
@@qingzhou9983unless the US replace the rules of physics with something magical, like walking on the water of drain the Pacific Ocean, there is no chance for the US to get any kind of military win.
If you are talking about the same model as Ukraine = NO military forces from US to defend Taiwan. Taiwan vs Ukraine is a very different model, bringing in aid to Taiwan is very limited compared to Ukraine. US navy will get a very heavy beating with at least 1 to 2 carriers being sunk. And when that happen, the wind for war will be taken out from US. Errr, China and Taiwan is de facto still in conflict ever since the KMT government retreated from Mainland China to Taiwan taking. Charles is sadly quite clueless ... if Japan are to be involved in any conflict with Taiwan, China will NOT hold back, that will even spur the nationalism of Chinese all over the world.
The late global statesman Lee Kuan Yew said, "The US will not go to war over Taiwan". Margaret Thatcher puts it "Harry Lee is never wrong!". More importantly, the Taiwanese are not stupid enough to be used by the hawks in America to achieve its political agenda. America desperately needs a war with China to set back China's rise. If the drumbeat of war with China gets any louder, the Taiwanese will vote in the KMT, and go for a one country two system political settlement just to shut up all the racists' war mongers in the US.
The last closing statement from Stephen is totally correct
That is not a possible thing for America to do, noted American voted Joe Biden as US President, finger on the nuke
The USA will not defend Taiwan five years from now as it is moving high end chip manufacturing on shore into the USA m. With this area covered it has little strategic return for a conflict.
It doesn’t matter what Asian countries may be on side very few have any military capacity for anything other than local defence as they lack navel forces. South Korea has no land boarder to China and knows from the 1859’s the cost of fighting in mountainous terrain. The USA will be trying to fight a war across the Pacific ocean as Chinese short and medium range rockets and missiles will destroy any airfield or port that can support navel operations within 3,000 km
You are wrong and right. Tsmc production in usa is not going very well because the costs are doubling and subsidies for foreign companies are few . So that is a nightmare for tsmc. It may not happen in the usa .
China destroying the usa in the pacific is obvious . Doesn’t matter how many bases usa builds as it is chinas back yard . The other thjng is the economic choke points that usa can do to china in terms of trade ( strait of malacca). Once china diversifies enough, no real war can be won . Of course , the nuclear option always meant both countries will be destroyed so that is not discussed.
But it's Not going well for the Taiwan. high end chips in the USA 😂😂😂
@@rogerburn5132 Errr ... with inadequate power and water that is required for mass chip production in Arizona... I guess not
@@wf645 Not only that there is program that explains How much more expensive it is to build factory in the USA ( Taiwan TSMC.) and there is No supply chain and the US government want the secrets of the Taiwan companies for microchips So they are going back to China again. Nice
@@wf645 also the fab they are setting up in Arizona is only producing last gen chips, and heavily reilant on support from Taiwan's main facility. The most advanced chips will still be produced on the island and it's not moving anywhere any time soon
charles underestimated China's resovle about taiwan reunification, this is very dangerous.
I think Charles Myers wishes he had not participated in this discussion. He made a fool of himselfe. His afforts to join the "manifucturing consent " failed misrabaly.
Totally true. Cannot believe he is senior in the management group. He is so self centered and his way of working is to unthink.
Decoupling - US will lose one of the world's most complete, efficient, economical and technological advanced manufacturing Hub with modern infrastructures. Well, US could try to rebuild another elsewhere, which also meant more cost, more capital needed, time and potential high inflation period. Successfulness of the ventures is another story. At the same, US is going to lose its biggest customer and market.
Moreover, according to ASPI studies, China is leading in 37 out of 44 critical emerging technologies currently. So, US is forcing and expediting China to be self sufficient than cooperating in a win-win cooperation. National security concern is another tool/excuse that US is abusing nowadays....Just like the dollar. Even Chinese factories r moving out of China not just bcoz of US but others. US is just doing them for a short term gain and a long term lost without a clear strategy.
With current trend of depolarization trend, China is also not stopping in its growth and technological advancement too. So you bet - who will come out as a winner. Just look at the world leaders visiting China one after another since the beginning of this year till now. On the other hand, US is on a warmongering path and weapon sale for "peace".
The world (not G7) is watching closely.
sure wumao, keep dreaming. usa is going to war with china, china will be wrecked in less than a week
china doeznt innovate, it copies poorly..everything china builds breaks..your military is no different.. a massive joke... lol
WHERE one door closes another door in fact many doors open ! LOVE CHINA PRC ! ❤❤❤❤❤
Charles seemed of the view that Washington agreed on a war with China will not be nuclear. Can anyone be sure this stuff can really be agreed upon once a war breaks out? (goodness forbid)
This means US thinks PRC will not use Nuke first. This is true because PRC nuke force is very small.
However PRC realizes now the potential of US fighting PRC, so it has a plan to increase its nuke force to above 1,000.
@@qingzhou9983 The size does not matter. US's nuclear arsenal is enough of wiping out China ten times, whereas China is only capable of wiping out US one time. What difference does it make.
Once China can make sure there is mutually assured destruction by getting its nuke subs out in the open ocean, the risk of nuclear war will be lessened.
China has the no first use policy, so as long as US does not use nuke first, it will be relatively safe. China may only have 400ish nukes, but most people do not know that all of the nukes they have are strategic nukes - aka thermal nuclear bombs aka hydrogen bombs. These have crazy yield compared to tactical nukes. 400 is more than enough to flatten US and guarantee MAD
Amurika..
China will take Taiwan like that: One day the authorities of Taiwan will announce that they decided to finish the unification and China will go in and occupy the island without any incident.
In one year Taiwan will have elections and the parties pro-China will win the elections.
Why should the same Chinese fight Chinese to put on a show entertaining the
US and Allies?
Empires always have their ups and downs, and no one can escape this fate, including the United States. Continuing to maintain U.S. dominance by limiting China is ultimately futile.
Strategically, China is transforming the assembly type of jobs into a hi-tech type of work force. It is inevitable for China to become an industrial country in the next ten years. Chinese will make this dream come true whether US politicians or scholars like it or not. US knows it can't protect Taiwan both economically, politically once China starts military actions against Taiwan. US thinks it can use its financial power to strangle China. But China has incredible endurance on hardship over that last 100 years. I can assure the West that China will defend their territory sovereignty at any cost. It may take another 100 years for China to recover from the taiwan war, but China will ABSOLUTELY make the reunification happen even a war with US.
In the process of containment, are we forcing china to become self reliant?
Of course.
Your very statement provides the answer. If you and I do business and I continually treat and call you an enemy, wouldn't you eventually distance yourself? I don't understand the lack of common sense in the question and most Americans.
America imperialism . Won’t work anymore .
@@ap5672 The threat is not from China alone.
The apparent challenge to supremacy,
that Capitalists present,
is the coming appearance of BRICS Bucks.
The US propaganda avoids mention of BRICS.
If you examine who wants in,
then you begin to notice that Durban, in August will host representatives of Nations that provide over half of the output of resources on the planet.
Those Nations were at one time Colonies.
The Colonial Empires that were actually taking advantage of the Colonies, now find they have to deal with those colonial sources of cheap shit,
as a group.....
Just keep calling them out and challenging their beliefs. Maybe they’ll eventually do some research for the facts
this middle guy speakers ideologically, that is it, no reasoning, no logic.
Decoupling from China will go against American economic interests.
Companies that can't compete with the locals, have no choice but to leave! Sound n strong companies expand and invest more!
Companies that moved to Vietnam or India, only moved the assembly, with all parts coming from China! I'm from TW, so I know!
FoxConn, TW company for Apple having many problems in India n have plans to move some or most assemblies back to China!
US asks it's allies to stop selling high end chips to China, and Intel goes to China to discuss how they can work together to evade the US chip sanctions! What a hypocrite!
With recent added new rules, I doubt high end chip manufacturing will be realized in the US by Samsung or TSMC! Please note that China has not retaliated yet so far!
Einar Tangan, Martin Jacques, Lijinjing, Cyrus Janssen, Daniel Dumbrill. Excellent journalists from CGTN The Point-Heat-Hub.
Mr Stephen Roach is the only adult in the room.
Decoupling China? They can't do without china.
"We will defend Taiwan militarily." What a joke!🤣🤣🤣🤣
Stephen, I love your concluding remark against the warmonger Charles that we truly need to "think" against the unthinkable impact of a full blown war on mankind.
Glad to see US decoupling China, better early than late, and see who will be the greater loser 😉
Too late
The true democracy is each country has its right to choose its own political system. Not forced by usa. America political system is a joke.
that guy is pure evil. He even prepared for the question, he was reading the notes!
China will not use force to engage with Taiwan. The Chinese are too smart for such an idea. They will not stop pestering Taiwan !
Reality, America simply has difficulty w/ accepting, countries around the world, coming out of the pandemic, want to welcome the entire world to trade w/ them. Our PM, Rishi, is not the " old poodle boy " type leader of the past...he sees the economic reality of getting rid of all this hatred, and bullsXit attached to trading...developing currency equal to the trading partners involved i.e. euro, BRICS developing their own currency trade....I'm NY Toms very British future wife MD, returning home to Britain this Spring, & America can't do a damn thing about it!!
China and Russia should form miltary alliance to counter hegemony of the US, and should explicitly declare first strike on US military bases as well as US mainland if US intervene in China unification with its renegaded province.
China & Russia never have "first strike" but finish the job. Good sample, Moscow waited Kyiv strike on the Russian speaking in the Donbas first in October 2021. Chinese Mainlanders have been on Taiwan island since the 1990's, there is not one inch of ground PLA does not know. They even know the housing block US intel are at on the island.
Charles has knowledge but is blinded by an imperial America world view. Stephen is wise. The chick is hot.
Anyone that is being blinded by a wrong view cannot be knowledgeable, dude😂
what will it cost american companies if chinese people boycott all american goods. gm, tesla. applle, etc.
What American goods, GM? their sales in China are evaporating, Apple? Chinese buy Iphones made in India? Really?, Tesla? Yes because Tesla is earning a lot of money for China and many Chinese are employed by Tesla.
what American goods? they are all cloned and faked in China...and sold as cheap imitations.
As soon as US decouples some things, it get filled up by other countries right away. So, decoupling is pointless, essentially.
How funny, when USA right now wishes to part take BRICS+ this August 2023. note, they were rejected.
That Charles guy is really unthinkable, must be smoking something.
Charles Myers is still living in the 80’ and sitting in a conference today.
每次看歐美國家指責中國要侵略佔領哪裡，都深深感覺好笑，這些歐美國家曾侵略殖民多少國家？到現在仍是，卻大言不慚指著中國說什麼擔憂，什麼要遏止，真的很噁心！
This Charles Myers is a financial advisor??? Apple moving out of China??? Yup, moving the lower end labour intensive assembly lines to India & Vietnam, that I agreed. Even Chinese businesses are moving their lower end production to Vietnam or India, but where does the many of the main components comes from? Still from China!!! The Main components makes up a major part of the cost of the phones! As a financial advisor, he is giving a very wrong picture to the potential clients! Maybe he playing to the crowd, I mean a hostile and anti-China audience, but he is not demonstrating any professionalism at all!
Maybe he is paid by the US to paint a doom picture of China so that businesses will move to the US? But don't think big corporations are that dumb! Major businesses in Europe and US were swarming to increase their investments in China after China ended their zero-covid policy.
Brilliant ending rebuttal from Stephen Roach.
I wish that Americans, irrespective of the academic credentials, would stop describing virtually everything China does, as "aggressive". If it was possible for them to be honest with themselves, they would be describing the very unethical tactics the US has been using to "contain" China as aggressive. In the group-think group-speak West, aggression is never applied to the US behavior despite its war record, regime change record, and economic blackmail record. The US is without question, the most aggressive belligerent country on earth and it past time for Americans to indulge in some honest self-reflection and to stop ascribing their own unflattering qualities. to others.
Hurry up we want see America go down too.......!!!!!!!!!!!!
The unintended consequences can be serious. It is not good to slay the goose that lays golden eggs at a time when the people have stones on their hands to throw at the glass house.
If the island was not taken from 1945 , why should it happen now, in a hurry?
Can't they wait another 50,100years?
China did not take Taiwan in 1945 cuz they were weak (coming out of 2 wars - WW2 and civil war) and poor as the KMT had retreated to Taiwan with all the gold reserves plus China had NO navy back then. Fast forward to 2023, China is rich and prosperous with the largest Navy fleet in the world, with military technology as advanced as US ... and hypersonic missiles that US carriers dare not close in. And not when Taiwan DPP government leads Taiwan on a dangerous path of independence ... China will act when the time comes
Why don't America admits failure and copy the Chinese model?
It is copying the China model. Industrial policy, protection of its market, common prosperity…..and talking on both sides of its mouth especially in regard to Taiwan….what the hell does it means about America recognizing and upholding the one China policy and also arming Taiwan and defending Taiwan? I guess they call it strategic ambiguity.
每个国家都有自己的政治特色，我们不需要强迫别的国家改成我的模式。相互尊重和理解
Will United States defend Taiwan militarily? Maybe yes now.
China will very likely expand it nuclear weapons very rapidly and improving its missiles and air defence system to such an extent that there is no incentive for any nation to attack?
US defend Taiwan？ Seriously? Just a question. What does the US gain to make up for what it loses in the conflict? Especially in a conflict where the US can barely win along the coast of China.
US defending Taiwan = Not Happening. Will most likely push their lackeys (Japan, Korea & Philippines) to intervene. The 3 stooges will get a beating that will set them back to stone ages - especially Japan, it will be NO holds barred
Lots of countries. Want to join brics. Who owns most of companies in Vietnam China
What's yours is mine and what's mine is my own.
James Joyce
It’s about the market to be specific the giant Chinese market..ask the semicon and boeing whether decoupling is a good idea
India is not an alternative market because of protectionist tendency
That's right. I heard the India government always find ways(excuses) to penalize the foreign companies. And the fines are relatively heavy too.
and India will not be as rich as Chinese market. despite having more that are younger
China has the longest border with Russia, a country with largest amount of nuclear weapon. For this reason alone, China would not want to make Russia an enemy unless Russia becomes a directly threat to China.
China had border war with Russia/USSR in 1969 when they were dirt poor and had no nukes (while Russia did), that did not stop them from fighting their more powerful neighbor when it comes to national sovereignty. China also fought US in the Korean war when they were poorly equiped. China and Russia had very sour relationship thanks to the US, and now they are reunited as strategic partners also thanks to the US
Bye bye anglo saxons
Huewei is finished in 5G? What is the guy charles smoking?
Charles clearly have no idea and Huawei is developing 6G as we speak
The young guy is Totally Wrong about the War in Taiwan. IF for whatever reason PRC starts the war, US will not directly involve militarily because it could not conclude This War, or PRC will not yield this War, even if US wins it. Taiwan is so important to CCP/PRC there is no end-strategy for US except the occupation of Chinese Mainland, which is impossible. This will be 10 times worse than Vietnam War for US.
thinking unthinkable is a strategy to win, and free thinking doesn’t physically hurt anybody. Really need to pay attention to something else because other people are also thinking unthinkable!!!
Just decouple them. Let's see who is getting hurt. Yeah!
Brics getting big
US need to reassesses their strategies, tripping others does not make you win the race, you may hurt yourself more.
Taiwan is different from Israel because it is part of China. PRC fought US in Korea. It will definitely fight US to the last man for Taiwan. US better has learned the lesson in Korean War and not get into someone else Civil War again.
Sleepwalking into self-destruction for profit and power of the few! Trade, not war, is the rule for peaceful coexistence!
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I don't have to be a genius...If a US company decided to move out and relocate to India or Vietnam...Shipping from Vietnam or India to US...Look at the map, infrastructure, and skill sets. I think China will win. If oil goes up to $100 per barrel...Shipping cost can be quite a bit.
What is the end game? A major war with China?
That likely but the US will be destroy that for sure......!!!!!!!!!!
West will lose with America ending like Roman Empire 😅😅😅 China can nuke mainland US in seconds 😂😂🤣🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺RUSSIA+CHINA 🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇷🇺🇨🇳🇨🇳🇷🇺
lose the competition and then start a war...? wow it turns out that US culture is very backward
I really don't think the US wants to experience its karma from those nukes they dropped on Japan, they know best what were the consequences as they had been studying the corspes of the dead victimes for years. Lets see if they have such courage…
China will lose the rich market of the 'west', where most of its exports go.
The younger gentleman has not contributed anything meaningful. He's no more than a US news headline announcer.
@42:48 Wow, what a great response and punch line from Stephen Roach: "maybe the lesson from what you just said Charles is that we can count on the unthinkable and as a result we need to do something we haven't done in a long time and that is THINK!"
That's ludicrous to hear that China is in the wrong side in Ukraine war. China didn't support Russia about the war and is unrevalant to the cause of the war. As a Chinese, I am just not so stupid that think NATO can stand for justice. Russia always strongly opposes NATO enlargement which causes Russia concerns about security. America and other NATO members know that but still try to let Ukraine join NATO. It's right that Russia lauched the war, but who pushed the button? Who was expectting war? Chinese are very sad about Ukrainians because we suffered a lot from wars in the last centuries and try to help the two countries to ceasefire.
Astonishing how lightly some talk about a war with China. Haven't you fought enough of them??
And btw: 1) everybody has recognized Taiwan as a part of China for decades (the importance of respecting national bounderies as everybody tells Putin since over a year) 2) how will you sustain a war thousands of miles away from home against the worlds 2nd of 3th biggest army just at their doorstep? You really think you're gonna win that one after losing in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and not even able to win over Cuba?
And for the record: still almost 50% of the Taiwanese population wants a reunification with China...
Great listening to arguments from both sides
Stephen Roach is a man with wisdom and common sense.
Yes, still think China is a backward Country with out USA.