Now do a timeline where the US develop the ASM-N-2 Bat earlier and managed to be delivered to frontline Airforce and Navy in Fall of 1942 during the later stages of Guadalcanal campaign
Fritz X wasn't used as much as you might expect, because jamming systems were issued soon after it was first used. Those systems were not initially very good and required an operator to determine control frequencies. Later ones were entirely automatic. Additionally, it required a very experienced crew to use and the aircraft had to fly straight & level for the entire deployment from firing until contact. Casualty rates for torpedo bombing runs should give an idea of just how deadly that can be. Now, a more interesting question from my point of view would be: What if the Allies had come up with and developed Project Pigeon secretly in time for the first half of WW2? Sure, it's a limited-supply weapon and difficult to transport, but a fully autonomous guided missile would have some serious .... impact.
Hmm... If they go for the Ju88 instead of the Ju87, we can count 1 Ju88 built for 2 Stuka's, but also moving earlier towards the gun-based attack craft. And then comes the question whether Germany messes up the Me-210 "pushed to production befor maturity" project.
i don't think the fritz would have dampened efforts towards strategic bombers. if anything it may actually help them. the germans were so obsessed with dive bombing that they damn near made it a requirement for all aircraft to have the feature. even the He-117 had dive brakes. i'm willing to be that they would have developed a bomber large enough to carry multiple bombs and control them all at the same time making it a terrifying aircraft to see. the eastern front would have been an interesting place to be if that were the case.
Maby im being too particular but: from what i understand The range 5km range is in my opinion is accurate but misleading. The range of fug 230 wire guidence system was 30km using 4 wire spools. The range of the bomb was dependent on the speed and altitude of the plane but going into a climb before release could lob it much further than 5km . so in this scenario from the video a plane could fly higher over the target higher than an altitude of 5km/16000ft. The 5km is not the line of sight range but the horizontal range that the bomb can displace if you draw line from the plane to the ground and from that point to the ship is 5km.
The original Fritz X guidance was by radio control, but the wired alternative was 12km of wire IIRC. Problem is that the further out it goes, the harder it gets to aim in anything but perfect weather conditions. So your crew have to be even more highly-trained. And it also needs the aircraft to fly straight-and-level for an even longer time.
The Fritz-X seems like a good example for understanding how high-tech wonder weapons so often couldn't live up to inflated expectations. On paper it's a devestating weapon against capital ships, a single 3-4 man twin-engined bomber could now sink a 1500 man battleship at range. In the mind of a politician with grand ambitions, that's a war-winning weapon which has just made rivals large surface feets obsolete. But to those who actually have to use the thing, it's turned their job from high-risk to suicidal. Now instead of running for home as soon as they release their bomb load, they now have to keep flying straight & level towards the target after release. (I wonder how late in the development programme it was before anyone thought about that?)
The bombers is attacked from 22,000 feet and were almost completely immune to effective allied anti aircraft fire. I’ve never heard of one bomber being shot down. Attacks were stopped by Fighters flying from carriers or the ground. The bombers did not fly straight and level. After release of the bomb the aircraft conducted a flaps down pull up from about 21,500 feet to 23,500 feet.. this Brought the bomb in line with the bomber and it also threw off the anti aircraft fire and aaa predictors.
It occurs that one issue with the possible small guided bomb is that some of the ground targets you might want to hit can be pretty hard to see with the naked eye from 5 km away -- even without throwing in mountainous fiords. Say a tank under camo net or hiding in a tree line, or a well sited and concealed pill box. So, while your ground forces won't have the kind of concentrated heavy AA that a ship would; being harder to see might force the attacking planes within range of lighter AA just to get eyes on target. Still, the whole hypothetical is an interesting one
It's interesting to think about the potential Allied response to earlier introduction of PGM's by Germany, not only for offensive weapons but also defense? If remotely controlled weapons are seen as viable, what prevents applying this thinking the other way? That is, might we have seen an earlier introduction of SAM's as a replacement for heavy gun based AA? A functional SAM would make life very sour for the Fritz-X launch aircraft.
I hadn't even thought about the Maginot Line and all of the land warfare applications. I did think for a minute when you mentioned that some British countermeasures might be more useful than they were historically that some of Cherwell's inventions might make an appearance. Thank you for making this while you're recovering.
Natch Taranto, what about Mers el Kebir? Does the device act as sufficient deterrent, after all the French will presumably know about its effectiveness (if any) that it makes Darlan much more pliable? That makes a massive difference to the balance of naval power in the Med, almost, but not quite, reducing the need for Taranto. Add Taranto as well and the Med becomes far more of a "British lake" and perhaps no North African campaign as it plays out. That means no blooded US troops from Torch, so very green ones go into Sicily, if indeed that even happens...
32:30 I object, given that the DD screen is having effective AAA fire, Heinkel crew might decide quite early to kill the escorts first, come back for the rest later, as Stuka's were historically.
A couple of thoughts: 1. Yes, British AA would probably be better equipped to deal with the attack profile of bombers employing Fritz X vs dive bombers (although pgm attacks from standoff range would still be substantially less exposed than traditional aerial torpedo attacks). On the other hand, Fritz X strikes would be far more likely to inflict lethal, crippling, or at least mission-kill damage to carriers and capital ships than early war dive bomber payloads could deliver, so i think the possibility that the Royal Navy experiences substantially more attrition of its heavy surface elements in 1940/41 is definitely there. 2. The potential impact on merchant convoys could have been absolutely devastating. A convoy screen is simply not going to be putting up anything like the layered AA density of a task force or task group centered on a carrier or a capital ship. To my mind, the money play with this system is to use it to punch holes in convoy screens to clear the path for submarines, torpedo bomber attacks, and surface raiders to get clean(er) shots at the merchies.
I could certainly sea the East Coast Convoys having issues, but the effect on capital ships will depend upon what aircraft replaces the Blackburn Skua in procurement position.
An interesting point about the early guided weapons is that the pilot would throttle back after bomb release so that the bomb-aimer could keep the bomb within their vision. This had the unintended but welcome effect of upsetting the calculations of the AA gunners. That's something that the gunners could overcome with training once this was known, but that would take experience and time - beyond your cut-off point. (Also bear in mind this period was before radar guided AA and proximity fuzes)
@@DrAlexClarke Out of interest, do you have any figures for how many level-flying bombers were hit by naval AA? The figure was surprisingly low for landbased AA in (say) the Battle of Britain.
@4thllamaofthealpacolypse712 sorry once it's a scuttlebutt question I don't respond till the video, but I will say RNs figures were better, than the land based AA, but that was primarily thanks to HACS & the Fuse Keeping Clocks
@@DrAlexClarke Ah I owe you an apology, Dr Clarke. As a newcomer to the channel, I thought you were just dismissing the comment as scuttlebutt. Having since perused your Videos section, I see the "scuttlebutt 5" has a deeper meaning, as part of a series. Once again, apologies for my misunderstanding.🥵
Once had a crazy alt-hist idea about Germany using Fritz-X-type ship killer bombs guided by pecking pigeons trained by Skinner's methods. Use them to blast the Royal Navy out of the channel long enough to get some version of Sealion going.
Something I thought of but you didn't bring up, probably because of the butterfly effects being too much, but if the RN and probably, by extension USN had adapted to face high level bombing threats, what impact, assuming the Pacific war also ends up with kamikazes, would that have had? Would there have been increased losses to the allied forces there?
BZ, get well Dr Clarke. Instead of Stuka: Yes, smaller guided weapons. Maybe "kanonenvogel", ie. heavy (auto)cannon attack planes? Cluster ammo ? 25:40 BRIDGES, factories, rail junctions...
So RN develop the LARYNX - i suspect someone will start eyeing up the Abdiel Class Minelayers either by conversion or by building half sisters -speedy , lots of storage space . lets say they revive some names from Historic Mortar ships because firing something long way and theyre an untapped pool of names . So lots of dash and fire missions . Operation Chariot probably butterflied away in favour of how many LARYNX can we put on a target with RAF support from the English equivalent Fritz X's , Dambusters Raid looks very different. Nice add on to shore bombardment . Maybe one of the Marshals gets rescued from being an accomdation ship for missile trial ship . Launched from a Catapult you say CAM ships might get a more sophisticated version for Condor hunting . Tallyho Condor Boom - Fast Forward Project Aphrodite a few years as tech develops - What have we got lieing about - Ah Avro Manchester - hello Uboat Pens etc meet my "Flying Bomb"
Which bomber is going to deploy the Fritz-X in mid-1940? The Do 217 didn't enter Luftwaffe bomber service until March 1941, but the Do 217 K-2, the model that KG 100 used to first drop the Fritz-X in combat, only entered production in September 1942. Presumably the He 111 would take the place...except the 111 ejected its munitions from its bomb bay end-over-end, which would render the Fritz-Xs guide vanes ineffective as it tumbled through the sky...
probably it would have to be adapted JU 88s, that would be the type most likely to benefit from the differential vis'a'vie the JU 87, and they do theoretically have the capacity for such carriage in terms of weight, even if they would need an adaptation in the positioning/form of the external hard points.
@@DrAlexClarke In that case, the Allies might have a much greater issue on their hands that early in the war--the National WWII Museum's website indicates the ideal altitude to drop the Fritz-X was from above 20,000 ft, as the PC 1400 would accelerate to terminal velocity between 600-700 mph from that altitude or above. The method of delivery seems designed to pull the Do 217 K-2 into a steep climb after dropping the weapon (one would assume a Ju-88 or its successor would be forced to do the same), pulling out of 40 mm Bofors range once the altitude exceeded 23,000 ft. Was heavy AAA accurate enough in 1940 to take out a high-flying German bomber alone, without medium AAA accompanying the 4, 4.5 and 5.25 inch shells? Moreover, are you certain the Luftwaffe would abandon dive bombing over this capability? The Do 217 K was classified as a heavy bomber by the Germans, unlike the Ju 87...and the Luftwaffe's belief in dive bombing was elevated so much by their experience over Spain the Ju 88 was also designed to perform dive bombing attacks and both the Do 217 and He 177 heavy bombers were designed with dive bombing in mind (which was a major reason for the delayed developmentfor both big bombers). With the Ju 88's demonstrated capability to drop torpedoes as well, why wouldn't 1940 feature Junkers units launching attacks simultaneously in three altitude regimes--torpedoes at low altitude, dive bombing from high to low altitude, and Fritz-Xs coming down from above medium AAA range? Wouldn't this require Allied air superiority/supremecy to counter? This was already in the cards in 1943 when Fritz-X was first employed, considering the volume of RAF and USAAF fighters earmarked for Operation Husky...but in 1940? With the Battle of Britain raging?
Something had to be cut, because they didn't have the spare resources to have another priority development to make it work - so if you don't cut dive bombing for this, and that is the logical thing as they over lap, you have to cut the fighter program? What is the other program you would cut to allocate the resources. You also have to remember this decision would have had to be taken before spain began, so again its going to be their capability. Also, on the Battle of Britain in 1940, again as I pointed out there British would have changed what they prioritised as the well, just as the Skua timeline equivalent is probably a fighter, not a dive bomber, there will be other changes in the British line up; the interesting thing was to me, that this weapon, and it's operating requirements, actually played far more into the official pre-war British pre-supositions.
@DrAlexClarke This concerns the German AIR FORCE, doesn't it? If R & D was insufficient for both dive bombing and developing PGM capability to horizontal bombing, wouldn't the likely target have been Kriegsmarine funding and/or procurement or taking these resources directly out of the German civilian economy after the January 1933 Chancellor appointment? But if the supposition is that the Germans can either only develop dive bombing or the technology that led to the Fritz-X and Hs 293, why would the latter have been chosen after Ernst Udet joined the Nazi Party on 1 May 1933 and became head of Luftwaffe R & D after the service was officially formed two weeks later? According to Air and Space Forces Magazine, dated 1 May 1987, Ernst Udet was at the Curtiss-Wright factory in Buffalo, NY on 27 September 1933 to supervise the disassembly of two new BFC-1 Hawk aircraft for transport to Germany...Udet having become enamored with dive bombing after personally witnessing Curtiss craft performing the technique at the 1931 Cleveland Air Show. Udet personally flew these Curtiss Hawks after they arrived and were reassembled in Europe to eventually win over the Luftwaffe brass (particularly one Hermann Goring) in prioritzing development that not only led to the Ju 87 but an insistence on incorporating dive bombing capability in ALL German attack aircraft and bombers (plus prioritzing dive performance in fighters in addition to an early focus on switching to monoplane designs). Given Udet's position in the Luftwaffe and Nazi hierarchy, which forces would sideline him in favor of early PGMs, especially considering that the PC 1400 was so huge there were precious few Luftwaffe that could even hoist the beast before 1941? ...or in an alternate timeline both are prioritzed starting in 1933, at the cost of naval development, or it comes out of resources for the civilian economy. This seems less far-fetched than a timeline where Udet dies in a 1930s plane crash instead of shooting himself in the head in 1941, especially considering other proponents of dive bombing could use the two purchased Curtiss Hawks to push for the technique while PGM development had no ability to demonstrate its accuracy until well into the Do 217's production cycle...
-He 111H2 and He 111P3 could carry the even heavier and physically thicker 2000kg SC2000 "Hermann" (British nickname) bomb. In fact they even carried a 2500kg "Satan" bomb externally. The He 111 can do the lift in 1940 though at lower altitude and initial development of Fritz-X assumed He 111. -The big problem for the Germans is their lack of long range fighter escorts. The range of a bomber in daylight during WW2 was the range of its escort fighters so the He 111 would be vulnerable to Fairy Fulmer and even RAF bombers and flying boats and land based fighters. The German Navy didn't have a fleet air arm like they did in WW1 (Marine Flieger) so the Luftwaffe tended to ignore the needs of the German Navy outside a few flying boats. Also understandable as the French coastline hadn't be conquered yet but Reichmarshall Goering is a problem as well. Even the Fw 200 started out as an airliner and was developed into maritime patrol bomber due to an order from the Japanese Navy. -The escort problem would limit the range to no more than a Ju 87R except in opportune circumstances where no escort carrier was allocated. The Ju 87R was a Ju 87B modified to take 2 x 300L/66 Imp Gallon drop tanks nearly doubling range. -The Germans did not even have drop tanks on Me 109 or Me 110 during the first phase of the battle of Britain. This is a very bad oversight since they had used 50 gallon drop tanks on the He 51 and He 112 during their intervention in the Spanish civil war. -Having Me 109 and Me 110 escorts for Ju 87R would be very deadly. --The Aircraft the Germans needed was the Fw 187 long range escort. It could have been in production in 1939 but it was denied the DB601 engines it needed since they were allocated to the Me 110 (which was not effective as an escort). The Fw 187 was a twin engine single seat fighter that had greater speed and similar maneuverability to a single engine fighter since it had a high power to weight ratio unlike the Me 110. -With the Fw 187 with DB601 engines the Germans could have projected sea power out to about 500 statute miles from shore by escorting Ju 88 and He 111. More would have been possible in latter versions. -With drop tanks a Me 109E7 or F2 could escort to maybe 200 miles radius (about the radius range of the Ju 87R). With the Fw 190A4 and twin drop tanks maybe 300 miles. -The Fw 190 wing could have fuel tanks added but this was not done till the Fw 190D12/D13 due to capacity issues so escort radius range could probably go to 400 miles.
A couple of WIKI style points. 1 The method of attack in 1943 was for the bomb to be initially aimed from around 21500ft by the Lotfe 7 computing bomb sight after a high speed run up. A specially modified Do 217 with extended wing span was used. After the release of the bomb the aircraft throttled back slightly, flaps down and a pull up of about 1500ft was conducted. This slowed the aircraft and brought it into line with the bomb. Bomb fall time was about 40 seconds. The bomb was only guided min the last 5.5 seconds of flight through the magnification optics of the sight which kept tracking the target. The Lotfe 7 was very effective and they proved deadly when Fw 200 attacked the merchant ships of Convoy Faith from 15,000ft with free fall bombs Merchant ships were easy targets for the bomb sight but warships could accelerate out of the way. Accuracy of the Friz-X was about 6m. (Probably CEP). The joystick simply used switches to nudgle the bomb using soloenoid activated tail fins as proportional control added no accuracy. 2 There was no Lotfe 7 in 1940 so a lessor sight such as the Lotfe 3 would be used (also stabilized but not computing ie tachymetric) 3 There were no Doriner Do 217 with 1700hp BMW801 in 1940. There were He 111H4 with 1100hp Jumo 211. There is no doubt the He 111 could lift the bomb. 4 Given the above I suggest attack attitude would be around 5000m/16500ft which gives a fall time of about 35 seconds though higher would be possible. 5 It would be quite a useful weapon against battleships, battle cruisers and cruisers though it tended to pass through the ship. A pure 1000kg High Explosive Version would be needed for other types of ship. 6 Much is often made of jamming of the Strasberg system but the reality is it wasn't that successful and had it been successful and detected by the Germans counter measures had been prepared. Initial allied attempts involved detecting the command signal and apply noise to it. This likely didn't work. Latter simultaneous noise jamming of all signals was tried. It wasn't until a Dornier Do 217 was shot down over Portsmouth and the transmitter analyzed as well as captured Fritz-X from Foggia Italy that the Allies were able to jam with sending spoof commands instead of noise. During the Portsmouth raid Fritz-X with electric torches in the tail were supposed to bomb the Royal Navy maked by Ju 88 Pathfinders drooping flare parachute. The Pathfinders turned up 20 minutes late allowing RAF night fighters to attack the Do 217. 7 In the event of jamming the Luftwaffe's plan was to change to a different Kehl-Strasberg frequency twice the wavelength that would be immune from the jammers. The Kits had been stocked but were never used because it was fighters that stopped the Fritz-X not jamming and the Luftwaffe never detected jamming. The would allow time for alternative guidance systems: a wire guidance and also a FM transmitter (and latter still a microwave link) 8 The range of the He 111 with a big bomb was limited. I would think 500 miles radius at most. The Fw 200 might be better if structurally it could carry the bomb. Unfortunately German fighters such as the Me 109E7B and Me 109F1 with drop tanks had a range of about 700 miles which means operational range was about 1/3rd ie 230 miles. Since Goering controlled the aircraft the Navy got there was no long range fighters etc and the bombers needed for long range bombing out to 1000 miles radius such as the Ju 89 and Do 19 were cancelled in 1938.
There was a variant of the Fritz-X with infrared homing intended for blast furnaces and likely could have achieved lock on a ship, also a TV homing optical contrast using spiral scan by Fernseh and Co. Source Fritz Trenkle "Die Deutsche Funklenlverfarhren 1038-1945. The Germans had FLAK radar called FuSE 64 that had track locking from 1943. The circuits for tracking a ship on the sea vesus an aircraft in the air are much the same. Needs about 100-140 vacuum tubes. From late 1943 the Germans started getting their microwave radars working but it probably could have been done with 20cm frequencies. Generally the Germans were heading towards TV guidance system called Tonne Seedorf. -The Fritz-X was fairly safe after it dropped its bomb as a/ it conducted a pull-up maneuver to line up the bomb with target that through of AAA b/ Most battleships and destroyers had limited elevation angle of 80 degrees as it was thought that no need to attack a bomber that had already dropped its bombs. -
For both the Friz X and the HS293 the Germans had 3 backup guidance methods. One used frequencies twice as low, hundreds of kits of which were stocked for Use in case of jamming, an FM version, a 27cm microwave version and a wire guided version. Nan will ever use because the Germans never detected the jamming they were expecting. The German guided weapons were stopped by carrier born fighters
A guided Tallboy or Grand Slam bomb is a very scary thought, if Britain has been working on guided bombs since the mid 30's.
Thanks for getting a video out even when you don't feel good
Now do a timeline where the US develop the ASM-N-2 Bat earlier and managed to be delivered to frontline Airforce and Navy in Fall of 1942 during the later stages of Guadalcanal campaign
Much more IJN wreckages for Paul Allen's team to find at The Slot.
Or Project Pigeon.
Take care of yourself first, Dr Clarke. We can wait, and you'll need all your energy for the move.
Glad your feeling a little better, hopefully you’ll be back to your normal self quickly. Enjoyed the video, thank you.
Fritz X wasn't used as much as you might expect, because jamming systems were issued soon after it was first used. Those systems were not initially very good and required an operator to determine control frequencies. Later ones were entirely automatic. Additionally, it required a very experienced crew to use and the aircraft had to fly straight & level for the entire deployment from firing until contact. Casualty rates for torpedo bombing runs should give an idea of just how deadly that can be.
Now, a more interesting question from my point of view would be: What if the Allies had come up with and developed Project Pigeon secretly in time for the first half of WW2? Sure, it's a limited-supply weapon and difficult to transport, but a fully autonomous guided missile would have some serious .... impact.
Hmm... If they go for the Ju88 instead of the Ju87, we can count 1 Ju88 built for 2 Stuka's, but also moving earlier towards the gun-based attack craft. And then comes the question whether Germany messes up the Me-210 "pushed to production befor maturity" project.
i don't think the fritz would have dampened efforts towards strategic bombers. if anything it may actually help them. the germans were so obsessed with dive bombing that they damn near made it a requirement for all aircraft to have the feature. even the He-117 had dive brakes. i'm willing to be that they would have developed a bomber large enough to carry multiple bombs and control them all at the same time making it a terrifying aircraft to see. the eastern front would have been an interesting place to be if that were the case.
Maby im being too particular but: from what i understand
The range 5km range is in my opinion is accurate but misleading.
The range of fug 230 wire guidence system was 30km using 4 wire spools.
The range of the bomb was dependent on the speed and altitude of the plane but going into a climb before release could lob it much further than 5km . so in this scenario from the video a plane could fly higher over the target higher than an altitude of 5km/16000ft. The 5km is not the line of sight range but the horizontal range that the bomb can displace if you draw line from the plane to the ground and from that point to the ship is 5km.
The original Fritz X guidance was by radio control, but the wired alternative was 12km of wire IIRC. Problem is that the further out it goes, the harder it gets to aim in anything but perfect weather conditions. So your crew have to be even more highly-trained. And it also needs the aircraft to fly straight-and-level for an even longer time.
The Fritz-X seems like a good example for understanding how high-tech wonder weapons so often couldn't live up to inflated expectations. On paper it's a devestating weapon against capital ships, a single 3-4 man twin-engined bomber could now sink a 1500 man battleship at range. In the mind of a politician with grand ambitions, that's a war-winning weapon which has just made rivals large surface feets obsolete. But to those who actually have to use the thing, it's turned their job from high-risk to suicidal. Now instead of running for home as soon as they release their bomb load, they now have to keep flying straight & level towards the target after release. (I wonder how late in the development programme it was before anyone thought about that?)
The bombers is attacked from 22,000 feet and were almost completely immune to effective allied anti aircraft fire. I’ve never heard of one bomber being shot down. Attacks were stopped by Fighters flying from carriers or the ground. The bombers did not fly straight and level. After release of the bomb the aircraft conducted a flaps down pull up from about 21,500 feet to 23,500 feet.. this Brought the bomb in line with the bomber and it also threw off the anti aircraft fire and aaa predictors.
Aside from Roma and a Cleveland class CL it was interesting to watch the electronic warfare game play out.
It occurs that one issue with the possible small guided bomb is that some of the ground targets you might want to hit can be pretty hard to see with the naked eye from 5 km away -- even without throwing in mountainous fiords. Say a tank under camo net or hiding in a tree line, or a well sited and concealed pill box.
So, while your ground forces won't have the kind of concentrated heavy AA that a ship would; being harder to see might force the attacking planes within range of lighter AA just to get eyes on target. Still, the whole hypothetical is an interesting one
Watching the thought of the logic behind the time line is as interesting as the subject itself… thanks Dr Clarke…,and strength to your arm……..BZ.
It's interesting to think about the potential Allied response to earlier introduction of PGM's by Germany, not only for offensive weapons but also defense?
If remotely controlled weapons are seen as viable, what prevents applying this thinking the other way? That is, might we have seen an earlier introduction of SAM's as a replacement for heavy gun based AA? A functional SAM would make life very sour for the Fritz-X launch aircraft.
I hadn't even thought about the Maginot Line and all of the land warfare applications. I did think for a minute when you mentioned that some British countermeasures might be more useful than they were historically that some of Cherwell's inventions might make an appearance. Thank you for making this while you're recovering.
Natch Taranto, what about Mers el Kebir? Does the device act as sufficient deterrent, after all the French will presumably know about its effectiveness (if any) that it makes Darlan much more pliable? That makes a massive difference to the balance of naval power in the Med, almost, but not quite, reducing the need for Taranto. Add Taranto as well and the Med becomes far more of a "British lake" and perhaps no North African campaign as it plays out. That means no blooded US troops from Torch, so very green ones go into Sicily, if indeed that even happens...
Yes, Larynx is a really big change if it came about...
Take care of yourself Dr Clarke, I would be interested in what the Fritz-X could do to soviet shipping in the Caspian sea and on the Volga River.
32:30 I object, given that the DD screen is having effective AAA fire, Heinkel crew might decide quite early to kill the escorts first, come back for the rest later, as Stuka's were historically.
Oh I'm sure they'll change eventually, but they will probably stick to doctrine longer through 1940 under this scenario
Get well soon Dr Clarke :)
A couple of thoughts:
1. Yes, British AA would probably be better equipped to deal with the attack profile of bombers employing Fritz X vs dive bombers (although pgm attacks from standoff range would still be substantially less exposed than traditional aerial torpedo attacks). On the other hand, Fritz X strikes would be far more likely to inflict lethal, crippling, or at least mission-kill damage to carriers and capital ships than early war dive bomber payloads could deliver, so i think the possibility that the Royal Navy experiences substantially more attrition of its heavy surface elements in 1940/41 is definitely there.
2. The potential impact on merchant convoys could have been absolutely devastating. A convoy screen is simply not going to be putting up anything like the layered AA density of a task force or task group centered on a carrier or a capital ship. To my mind, the money play with this system is to use it to punch holes in convoy screens to clear the path for submarines, torpedo bomber attacks, and surface raiders to get clean(er) shots at the merchies.
I could certainly sea the East Coast Convoys having issues, but the effect on capital ships will depend upon what aircraft replaces the Blackburn Skua in procurement position.
An interesting point about the early guided weapons is that the pilot would throttle back after bomb release so that the bomb-aimer could keep the bomb within their vision. This had the unintended but welcome effect of upsetting the calculations of the AA gunners.
That's something that the gunners could overcome with training once this was known, but that would take experience and time - beyond your cut-off point.
(Also bear in mind this period was before radar guided AA and proximity fuzes)
Scuttlebutt 5, there was a reason I didn't bring this into the discussion
@@DrAlexClarke Out of interest, do you have any figures for how many level-flying bombers were hit by naval AA?
The figure was surprisingly low for landbased AA in (say) the Battle of Britain.
@4thllamaofthealpacolypse712 sorry once it's a scuttlebutt question I don't respond till the video, but I will say RNs figures were better, than the land based AA, but that was primarily thanks to HACS & the Fuse Keeping Clocks
@@DrAlexClarke Ah - so it makes little difference whether scuttlebutt or not as they wouldn't be hit anyway. 😄
Thanks for your time. much appreciated.
@@DrAlexClarke Ah I owe you an apology, Dr Clarke. As a newcomer to the channel, I thought you were just dismissing the comment as scuttlebutt. Having since perused your Videos section, I see the "scuttlebutt 5" has a deeper meaning, as part of a series.
Once again, apologies for my misunderstanding.🥵
Once had a crazy alt-hist idea about Germany using Fritz-X-type ship killer bombs guided by pecking pigeons trained by Skinner's methods. Use them to blast the Royal Navy out of the channel long enough to get some version of Sealion going.
Something I thought of but you didn't bring up, probably because of the butterfly effects being too much, but if the RN and probably, by extension USN had adapted to face high level bombing threats, what impact, assuming the Pacific war also ends up with kamikazes, would that have had? Would there have been increased losses to the allied forces there?
Basically with the coughing there were only so many butterflies I could follow.... video length was to be 2.5hrs long originally...
BZ, get well Dr Clarke.
Instead of Stuka: Yes, smaller guided weapons. Maybe "kanonenvogel", ie. heavy (auto)cannon attack planes? Cluster ammo ?
25:40 BRIDGES, factories, rail junctions...
So RN develop the LARYNX - i suspect someone will start eyeing up the Abdiel Class Minelayers either by conversion or by building half sisters -speedy , lots of storage space . lets say they revive some names from Historic Mortar ships because firing something long way and theyre an untapped pool of names . So lots of dash and fire missions .
Operation Chariot probably butterflied away in favour of how many LARYNX can we put on a target with RAF support from the English equivalent Fritz X's , Dambusters Raid looks very different. Nice add on to shore bombardment . Maybe one of the Marshals gets rescued from being an accomdation ship for missile trial ship . Launched from a Catapult you say CAM ships might get a more sophisticated version for Condor hunting . Tallyho Condor Boom - Fast Forward Project Aphrodite a few years as tech develops - What have we got lieing about - Ah Avro Manchester - hello Uboat Pens etc meet my "Flying Bomb"
Good morning everyone. This topic should be interesting.
Which bomber is going to deploy the Fritz-X in mid-1940? The Do 217 didn't enter Luftwaffe bomber service until March 1941, but the Do 217 K-2, the model that KG 100 used to first drop the Fritz-X in combat, only entered production in September 1942.
Presumably the He 111 would take the place...except the 111 ejected its munitions from its bomb bay end-over-end, which would render the Fritz-Xs guide vanes ineffective as it tumbled through the sky...
probably it would have to be adapted JU 88s, that would be the type most likely to benefit from the differential vis'a'vie the JU 87, and they do theoretically have the capacity for such carriage in terms of weight, even if they would need an adaptation in the positioning/form of the external hard points.
@@DrAlexClarke In that case, the Allies might have a much greater issue on their hands that early in the war--the National WWII Museum's website indicates the ideal altitude to drop the Fritz-X was from above 20,000 ft, as the PC 1400 would accelerate to terminal velocity between 600-700 mph from that altitude or above. The method of delivery seems designed to pull the Do 217 K-2 into a steep climb after dropping the weapon (one would assume a Ju-88 or its successor would be forced to do the same), pulling out of 40 mm Bofors range once the altitude exceeded 23,000 ft. Was heavy AAA accurate enough in 1940 to take out a high-flying German bomber alone, without medium AAA accompanying the 4, 4.5 and 5.25 inch shells?
Moreover, are you certain the Luftwaffe would abandon dive bombing over this capability? The Do 217 K was classified as a heavy bomber by the Germans, unlike the Ju 87...and the Luftwaffe's belief in dive bombing was elevated so much by their experience over Spain the Ju 88 was also designed to perform dive bombing attacks and both the Do 217 and He 177 heavy bombers were designed with dive bombing in mind (which was a major reason for the delayed developmentfor both big bombers). With the Ju 88's demonstrated capability to drop torpedoes as well, why wouldn't 1940 feature Junkers units launching attacks simultaneously in three altitude regimes--torpedoes at low altitude, dive bombing from high to low altitude, and Fritz-Xs coming down from above medium AAA range?
Wouldn't this require Allied air superiority/supremecy to counter? This was already in the cards in 1943 when Fritz-X was first employed, considering the volume of RAF and USAAF fighters earmarked for Operation Husky...but in 1940? With the Battle of Britain raging?
Something had to be cut, because they didn't have the spare resources to have another priority development to make it work - so if you don't cut dive bombing for this, and that is the logical thing as they over lap, you have to cut the fighter program? What is the other program you would cut to allocate the resources. You also have to remember this decision would have had to be taken before spain began, so again its going to be their capability.
Also, on the Battle of Britain in 1940, again as I pointed out there British would have changed what they prioritised as the well, just as the Skua timeline equivalent is probably a fighter, not a dive bomber, there will be other changes in the British line up; the interesting thing was to me, that this weapon, and it's operating requirements, actually played far more into the official pre-war British pre-supositions.
@DrAlexClarke This concerns the German AIR FORCE, doesn't it? If R & D was insufficient for both dive bombing and developing PGM capability to horizontal bombing, wouldn't the likely target have been Kriegsmarine funding and/or procurement or taking these resources directly out of the German civilian economy after the January 1933 Chancellor appointment?
But if the supposition is that the Germans can either only develop dive bombing or the technology that led to the Fritz-X and Hs 293, why would the latter have been chosen after Ernst Udet joined the Nazi Party on 1 May 1933 and became head of Luftwaffe R & D after the service was officially formed two weeks later?
According to Air and Space Forces Magazine, dated 1 May 1987, Ernst Udet was at the Curtiss-Wright factory in Buffalo, NY on 27 September 1933 to supervise the disassembly of two new BFC-1 Hawk aircraft for transport to Germany...Udet having become enamored with dive bombing after personally witnessing Curtiss craft performing the technique at the 1931 Cleveland Air Show.
Udet personally flew these Curtiss Hawks after they arrived and were reassembled in Europe to eventually win over the Luftwaffe brass (particularly one Hermann Goring) in prioritzing development that not only led to the Ju 87 but an insistence on incorporating dive bombing capability in ALL German attack aircraft and bombers (plus prioritzing dive performance in fighters in addition to an early focus on switching to monoplane designs). Given Udet's position in the Luftwaffe and Nazi hierarchy, which forces would sideline him in favor of early PGMs, especially considering that the PC 1400 was so huge there were precious few Luftwaffe that could even hoist the beast before 1941?
...or in an alternate timeline both are prioritzed starting in 1933, at the cost of naval development, or it comes out of resources for the civilian economy. This seems less far-fetched than a timeline where Udet dies in a 1930s plane crash instead of shooting himself in the head in 1941, especially considering other proponents of dive bombing could use the two purchased Curtiss Hawks to push for the technique while PGM development had no ability to demonstrate its accuracy until well into the Do 217's production cycle...
-He 111H2 and He 111P3 could carry the even heavier and physically thicker 2000kg SC2000 "Hermann" (British nickname) bomb. In fact they even carried a 2500kg "Satan" bomb externally. The He 111 can do the lift in 1940 though at lower altitude and initial development of Fritz-X assumed He 111.
-The big problem for the Germans is their lack of long range fighter escorts. The range of a bomber in daylight during WW2 was the range of its escort fighters so the He 111 would be vulnerable to Fairy Fulmer and even RAF bombers and flying boats and land based fighters. The German Navy didn't have a fleet air arm like they did in WW1 (Marine Flieger) so the Luftwaffe tended to ignore the needs of the German Navy outside a few flying boats. Also understandable as the French coastline hadn't be conquered yet but Reichmarshall Goering is a problem as well. Even the Fw 200 started out as an airliner and was developed into maritime patrol bomber due to an order from the Japanese Navy.
-The escort problem would limit the range to no more than a Ju 87R except in opportune circumstances where no escort carrier was allocated. The Ju 87R was a Ju 87B modified to take 2 x 300L/66 Imp Gallon drop tanks nearly doubling range.
-The Germans did not even have drop tanks on Me 109 or Me 110 during the first phase of the battle of Britain. This is a very bad oversight since they had used 50 gallon drop tanks on the He 51 and He 112 during their intervention in the Spanish civil war.
-Having Me 109 and Me 110 escorts for Ju 87R would be very deadly.
--The Aircraft the Germans needed was the Fw 187 long range escort. It could have been in production in 1939 but it was denied the DB601 engines it needed since they were allocated to the Me 110 (which was not effective as an escort). The Fw 187 was a twin engine single seat fighter that had greater speed and similar maneuverability to a single engine fighter since it had a high power to weight ratio unlike the Me 110.
-With the Fw 187 with DB601 engines the Germans could have projected sea power out to about 500 statute miles from shore by escorting Ju 88 and He 111. More would have been possible in latter versions.
-With drop tanks a Me 109E7 or F2 could escort to maybe 200 miles radius (about the radius range of the Ju 87R). With the Fw 190A4 and twin drop tanks maybe 300 miles.
-The Fw 190 wing could have fuel tanks added but this was not done till the Fw 190D12/D13 due to capacity issues so escort radius range could probably go to 400 miles.
Even at you non best, you good. Look after your self and get better. No apology required
A couple of WIKI style points.
1 The method of attack in 1943 was for the bomb to be initially aimed from around 21500ft by the Lotfe 7 computing bomb sight after a high speed run up. A specially modified Do 217 with extended wing span was used. After the release of the bomb the aircraft throttled back slightly, flaps down and a pull up of about 1500ft was conducted. This slowed the aircraft and brought it into line with the bomb. Bomb fall time was about 40 seconds. The bomb was only guided min the last 5.5 seconds of flight through the magnification optics of the sight which kept tracking the target. The Lotfe 7 was very effective and they proved deadly when Fw 200 attacked the merchant ships of Convoy Faith from 15,000ft with free fall bombs Merchant ships were easy targets for the bomb sight but warships could accelerate out of the way. Accuracy of the Friz-X was about 6m. (Probably CEP). The joystick simply used switches to nudgle the bomb using soloenoid activated tail fins as proportional control added no accuracy.
2 There was no Lotfe 7 in 1940 so a lessor sight such as the Lotfe 3 would be used (also stabilized but not computing ie tachymetric)
3 There were no Doriner Do 217 with 1700hp BMW801 in 1940. There were He 111H4 with 1100hp Jumo 211. There is no doubt the He 111 could lift the bomb.
4 Given the above I suggest attack attitude would be around 5000m/16500ft which gives a fall time of about 35 seconds though higher would be possible.
5 It would be quite a useful weapon against battleships, battle cruisers and cruisers though it tended to pass through the ship. A pure 1000kg High Explosive Version would be needed for other types of ship.
6 Much is often made of jamming of the Strasberg system but the reality is it wasn't that successful and had it been successful and detected by the Germans counter measures had been prepared. Initial allied attempts involved detecting the command signal and apply noise to it. This likely didn't work. Latter simultaneous noise jamming of all signals was tried. It wasn't until a Dornier Do 217 was shot down over Portsmouth and the transmitter analyzed as well as captured Fritz-X from Foggia Italy that the Allies were able to jam with sending spoof commands instead of noise. During the Portsmouth raid Fritz-X with electric torches in the tail were supposed to bomb the Royal Navy maked by Ju 88 Pathfinders drooping flare parachute. The Pathfinders turned up 20 minutes late allowing RAF night fighters to attack the Do 217.
7 In the event of jamming the Luftwaffe's plan was to change to a different Kehl-Strasberg frequency twice the wavelength that would be immune from the jammers. The Kits had been stocked but were never used because it was fighters that stopped the Fritz-X not jamming and the Luftwaffe never detected jamming. The would allow time for alternative guidance systems: a wire guidance and also a FM transmitter (and latter still a microwave link)
8 The range of the He 111 with a big bomb was limited. I would think 500 miles radius at most. The Fw 200 might be better if structurally it could carry the bomb. Unfortunately German fighters such as the Me 109E7B and Me 109F1 with drop tanks had a range of about 700 miles which means operational range was about 1/3rd ie 230 miles. Since Goering controlled the aircraft the Navy got there was no long range fighters etc and the bombers needed for long range bombing out to 1000 miles radius such as the Ju 89 and Do 19 were cancelled in 1938.
BZ. Thanks Dr
Imagine if the Fritz-X was radar guided instead of MCLOS 🤔
Would have been easy to beat. Big cloud of Chaff!!!
There was a variant of the Fritz-X with infrared homing intended for blast furnaces and likely could have achieved lock on a ship, also a TV homing optical contrast using spiral scan by Fernseh and Co. Source Fritz Trenkle "Die Deutsche Funklenlverfarhren 1038-1945. The Germans had FLAK radar called FuSE 64 that had track locking from 1943. The circuits for tracking a ship on the sea vesus an aircraft in the air are much the same. Needs about 100-140 vacuum tubes. From late 1943 the Germans started getting their microwave radars working but it probably could have been done with 20cm frequencies. Generally the Germans were heading towards TV guidance system called Tonne Seedorf.
-The Fritz-X was fairly safe after it dropped its bomb as a/ it conducted a pull-up maneuver to line up the bomb with target that through of AAA b/ Most battleships and destroyers had limited elevation angle of 80 degrees as it was thought that no need to attack a bomber that had already dropped its bombs.
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Next 'alternative history' Mk 24 mine comes out in 1940 🤔
Bravo Zulu
The fritz-X was never viable in the long term as the British will counter it not long after
For both the Friz X and the HS293 the Germans had 3 backup guidance methods. One used frequencies twice as low, hundreds of kits of which were stocked for Use in case of jamming, an FM version, a 27cm microwave version and a wire guided version. Nan will ever use because the Germans never detected the jamming they were expecting. The German guided weapons were stopped by carrier born fighters