You’re Being Lied to (Again) About the Housing Market Crash

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  • Опубликовано: 2 фев 2025

Комментарии • 62

  • @talbaugh77
    @talbaugh77 23 дня назад +5

    Came for the steaks video, stayed for the real estate market breakdown. Appreciate your thoughts on home values right now, thanks.

    • @Katieyoutubes
      @Katieyoutubes 23 дня назад

      Same. Thanks for all the insight. We appreciate your perspective!

  • @marcparker7858
    @marcparker7858 18 дней назад +1

    My advice for first time home buyers; the lower the interest rates the more mortgage they are going to convince you, you can afford. So home prices increase when interest rates lower. When the rates go back up the market will adjust and so will the value of your new home. Youll be underwater on your investment. The only ones that win in this scenario are bankers and agents. If you wait untill the rates climb youll get in at a lower price and wait for the rates to go back down and refinance. In that scenario the market will be increasing adding value to your home while you actually lower your mortgage payment to a lower interest rate. So if your first time i would suggest waiting it out if you can

  • @forkpuncher
    @forkpuncher 23 дня назад +4

    I think it's in next 4 years, but I'm not going to be saying it will happen.
    There is one thing I disagree with you on the supply and demand issue, but it's more of a definition issue.
    We have enough housing supply, what we don't have is inventory.
    That is, there is enough houses to house everyone in America, but the availability of inventory is low because a lot are not willing to sell without a housing solution for themselves in place, or it's dependent on region where AirBnB still won't sell their investment properties due to hoping the market goes up again.
    Other than that you have insurance skyrocketing, costs high rocketing... and the economy and jobs growth data (according to my wealth manager who encouraged me to invest) is not factoring the posibilty of ghost jobs that companies use to signal growth to investors or harvest information from those who apply.
    I agree with you on not knowing where we are exactly on the crash, but with the amount of people I'm seeing not be able to find jobs despite applying to all these openings that they're qualified for, I think the signs are coming for recession and possible collapse, it's just a little closer every year but we won't know when it'll happen.

    • @FrankFaulkner-qf8cb
      @FrankFaulkner-qf8cb 15 дней назад

      It will crash in 3 to 6 months, its inevitable, property is just a sponsored get rich quick scheme for investors, who are now selling

    • @brianoleson9224
      @brianoleson9224 10 дней назад

      @@FrankFaulkner-qf8cb its not that simple when housing tanks it wont be a housing news event it will be larger stock market crash, bank failures etc. i think bleeding headlines are a little further then 3-6 months i think july,october,december around there

    • @brianoleson9224
      @brianoleson9224 10 дней назад

      @@FrankFaulkner-qf8cb theres already millions of people in america that are underwater on there homes its quiet and not being said but you know 10s of thousands of people in austin texas are in a depression seeing there homes depreciate 22% while food went up

  • @Azxnrjsle
    @Azxnrjsle 18 дней назад +2

    Sam, for part where you mention hypersupply part of the cycle - how does this get reconciled with the massive lack of housing starts now that the Covid boom for houses/apartments are finally coming online? It doesn’t seem like the US is going to have any significant NEW supply based on current and short term planned housing starts.
    I think the US will always have housing shortages and prices will be propped up from the short supply/increased demand so long as the US treats houses as a financial asset vs a use asset.
    When the vast majority of Americans don’t invest for the future outside of their home and instead rely only on their home as a nest egg, housing prices won’t crash as a result of supply/demand, it’ll always be some external shock.

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  17 дней назад +1

      These are all great points, and my honest answer is I don't know. As you say, the U.S. has built too few houses basically since 2007 and housing starts were dismal in 2024. This is definitely a factor that has kept prices high and perhaps it will for a long time. Maybe, as some have opined, the 18-year cycle is broken.
      There is the reality that housing costs require a much greater percentage of median incomes right now than they typically do, and it would seem this would be due for a reckoning at some point. Home prices coming down would help, as would significantly lower interest rates (good luck on that one). The other factor that would help is significant wage growth, which is above my pay grade but I do wonder if at some point wages will be forced to keep up with inflation. It's a fascinating frustrating time.

    • @Azxnrjsle
      @Azxnrjsle 17 дней назад

      @ Thanks for the reply. Agreed that something has to break one way or another, whether that’s real wages increasing or some factor reducing housing cost (price or interest rates).
      It will be interesting to see over the coming years how many people will be forced to give up their 2-4% mortgage due to life events (moving/etc) and how many will be able to keep it as a rental in addition to a new mortgage.
      The former seems good for housing supply although it’s not new housing. The latter seems bad if only for the reason that it’s keeping homes locked up as rentals.
      I’m also curious if we’ll begin to see Americans reject the idea of ownership as the sole path to wealth building. There’s a lot of merit to renting and putting the amount you’d spend in mortgage interest towards a brokerage account.
      You are already starting to see people turn toward renting in cities that have legalized by right “missing middle” type housing. Portland OR and Minneapolis MN have been able to maintain rents at close to 2018 levels because of the flexibility of their supply. Even in the face of increasing ownership costs. Very interesting stuff…

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 15 дней назад

      @@Azxnrjsle A third possibility of something breaking (going down) is the average American's lifestyle. Americans have enjoyed a much higher level of living than the rest of the world, in large because of our reserve currency status. (Sidenote, our inflation rate would be significantly higher without that status, and our lives would likely be very different.)
      The historical average American's lifestyle of being able to afford their in own home may be changing.
      People might think that's crazy, but if you consider Europe, Canada, and Australia, we are the oddball.
      Canada and Australia have significantly higher housing prices than the U.S., and there are more renters there.
      My guess is U.S. home prices remain relatively stable but continue ticking up from here. Also, there will be more renters in the future. Obviously that is not ideal, but if you know it's coming, you can adjust to take advantage of it.
      There will likely be more multi-generational living in the future, waiting until later to buy a home, and more lifetime renters. Those are my guesses.

  • @ababababeebababa
    @ababababeebababa 23 дня назад +2

    Good video. So many good points! One thing I personally noticed since 2000 is that those annual pay increases STOPPED, while yearly inflation never stops and the price of everything rises annually. So without that pay increase, I had less and less buying power each year. Prior to 2000 I was having regular 2.5-3.5 annual pay raises and bonuses ... so you could keep up over time. So I think explaining that prices of homes has gone up is only a small piece of the equation. The lack of pay increases over time vs. everything else (homes includes) going up annually == lack of affordability. In addition, the lack of flexible mortgages ... think of how car sales would have plummeted if we stay had a max auto load of 2 or 3 years. As car prices went up, they added 4, 5, 6, 7 and even 8 year loans. RV loans started at 10 years. But for homes, 15 or 30 year mortgages only ... where is the mortgage marking adapting to change of financial affordability? They have no innovated much, it appears.

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  23 дня назад +1

      This is a really good point. If you look at the chart of wages vs inflation, or wages vs housing prices, wages simply have not kept up over the last 20 years or so. People often look to home prices or interest rates falling as the only paths back to affordability, but wage growth is another way to get us there. We'll see.
      Recently, there have been some 40-year mortgages rolled out but they've been slow to catch on. I think people struggle psychologically to lock themselves in for another 10 years (despite the fact that very few homeowners see the end of a 30-year mortgage without selling or refinancing).

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 21 день назад

      If you haven't been getting annual wage increases since 2000, it is time to look for a new job. You can probably double your pay by changing jobs if you haven't received an increase since 2000.
      Employers have greatly improved pay the past few years because they had to to keep employees.
      There is an argument to be made these increases haven't kept pace with inflation (real growth), but it doesn't sound like that's what you were talking about.

    • @ababababeebababa
      @ababababeebababa 21 день назад

      @ I hear you .. I was in telco ... raises were uncommon outside of sr management

  • @jeffleischner2870
    @jeffleischner2870 23 дня назад

    I like how you explained the different phases of the housing market.

  • @jamesedwards.1069
    @jamesedwards.1069 20 дней назад

    People always think the real estate market is about to crash because the real estate market is always inflated with massive amounts of credit pumping it up. As your chart shows, real estate does crash, but then credit pumps it back up again. The real problem is that even after real estate crashes it's still never a good bargain, it only drops to a reasonable level before it begins to defy gravity again. Investing in real estate can bring massive profits, but, it's a dangerous game only for those who enjoy flying around in hot air balloons.

  • @nickyb-ff6me
    @nickyb-ff6me 19 дней назад +2

    So Austin TX and other markets aren’t down over 20%? Must just be my imagination

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  18 дней назад

      What I understand about markets like Austin and Phoenix (because I'm certainly not an expert in those) is that their COVID run-up was even bigger than ours (and most in the country), and yes, the subsequent drop was bigger as well. So the net jump over time is still similar; imagine 45% up and 20% down, vs. 35% up and 10% down. The latter was the case in Denver, with the drop happening in the second half of 2022, with incremental raises in 23 and 24.

    • @brianoleson9224
      @brianoleson9224 10 дней назад

      @@DenverLivingwithSam what happened in the years following the last pandemic of this scale in america 1918 - 1930?

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  10 дней назад

      @brianoleson9224 World War 2.

    • @brianoleson9224
      @brianoleson9224 10 дней назад

      @ depression 1920 depression 1929 , stock market crash, housing crash record unemployment

  • @user-xm9ft7ks7y
    @user-xm9ft7ks7y 23 дня назад +4

    Don’t you have an incentive to say there is no crash?

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  23 дня назад

      Yes, and I addressed this in the video.

    • @rudolfeskimo4281
      @rudolfeskimo4281 21 день назад

      Can’t wait to look back on this video Ina year.

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 21 день назад

      ​@@rudolfeskimo4281 Please do. And if you're wrong, admit it.
      Crash bros have continued their narrative for the past five years while being horribly wrong.

  • @joelong2787
    @joelong2787 22 дня назад

    What is the difference from Inventory and Supply . It’s the same is it ?

  • @john39272
    @john39272 23 дня назад

    Where do I go to read more about the 18 year real estate cycle?

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  23 дня назад +1

      It's an old theory, so there are a bunch of articles written about it over time. Like this one: realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics/

  • @mikopaq
    @mikopaq 21 день назад +1

    It's presently crashing my child. Doesn't happen overnight but when it goes hard the bottom is deep. Patience child, interest rates are going to crush it.

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 21 день назад

      Interest rates nearly tripled in 2022, my child. Where is your crash?
      How many years away is it? One year, three years, ten years?

    • @brianoleson9224
      @brianoleson9224 10 дней назад

      @@user-zk6fc3dw9e there hasnt been a historic meltdown yet ... so why would you ask where is your crash? the last one was 17 years ago alot of complacent people out there scalping pokemon cards thinking we can cheat death of a pandemic and bubbles in stocks,bonds, real estate

  • @williewill1237
    @williewill1237 22 дня назад +1

    Liquidity is slowing down ya Mo- Ran

  • @brianoleson9224
    @brianoleson9224 10 дней назад

    because i held 450,000 dollars in cash from 2022-2025 i can now buy a home in like 7 states for between $50,000 and 150,000$ off (5-15%) its already paid off. Theres alot of reasons to think the 5 th u.s housing crash is here.... we saw a pandemic not seen since 1918 your great grandma wasnt even an adult back in 1918

  • @markclippendara
    @markclippendara 22 дня назад +1

    Doesn't he have incentives to tell the truth and keep his viewers?

  • @danielnussbaum6300
    @danielnussbaum6300 20 дней назад

    2024 was the worst year for the housing market since ww2 on a transaction and per capita basis. Home prices have been dropping slowly over the last year. I expect a capitulation on prices to happen this year to bring valuations down to trending. 2021 to 2022 was a classic bubble mania.

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  20 дней назад

      Home prices went up over the last year in Denver. Prices will fall at some point but it hasn’t happened yet (except for a ~6 month period over the second half of 2022).

  • @level1life79
    @level1life79 20 дней назад

    Because of prices being high? No it's because of inventory at the highest in a decade while there's no demand for those houses. It's about prices being high while interest rates are so much higher than 3 years ago. You really show how little you understand about the market in this video I feel bad for people who use people like you as their agents you literally admitted to trying to convince people to buy homes in the past thats sick.

  • @brownph99
    @brownph99 22 дня назад

    Is there a predicted effect similar to the 'great wealth transfer'; as Boomer generation folks eventually either pass away or eventually move into senior living or whatever they need to downsize. Sources usually cite 38% single-family owned by boomer generation, so that supply seemingly has to start affecting the marked over the next 10-15 years.

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  20 дней назад

      Yes actually, great observation. It's one of the things that has kept inventory low, as boomers taking longer to move/downsize than previous generations (Covid was a big part of this). They've been stubborn, but a few very smart people expect this to dramatically loosen up inventory as you said...Google "silver tsunami" to read about the theory.

  • @GreenMountain565
    @GreenMountain565 23 дня назад

    For perspective my wife and I bought an early 70’s house in west Lakewood in 2008 for 240k. We were both in our 20’s and it was our first house. At the time we thought the payment was high but we were able to manage it on a 75k yearly household income. This same house now sells for 800-875k. There is no way 99% of new home owners could afford this neighborhood like we could only 16 years ago. I still have no idea how all of this happened? Basically at the onsite of Covid prices started to climb and they never came down. For Denver to become affordable like it once was it’s going to need a serious collapse and I just don’t see that happening.

    • @CHRISTOPHERPAULPETERS
      @CHRISTOPHERPAULPETERS 22 дня назад

      Over appraisals of property all over this country, so government could raise more taxes to spend, & collapse things as they have with our oil based economy. Some people are getting closed out of a living wage on their professions, & robotics & drones taking over, so wealthy keep getting rich. Every time oil went up, goods & services rose also, and either slow parachute effect or business keeps higher prices, waiting for next oil price hike. They do this controlled act, 2-3 times a year, & we already are paying 25%-30% add on, on many products because rich making money off of commodities markets. They have made laws, to make money on every direction & transaction that a product goes thru, to maximize profits for shareholders. Basically GREED is killing the American Dream, & just look at consumer price index of 1963 for example, & know every american should be making at least $100,000 per year, just to keep up with inflation(Greed)

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 21 день назад

      For perspective, prices were starting to come down in 2008.
      Some might argue Denver was still an undiscovered gem back then too. That is no longer the case, similar to several other popular cities (Nashville, Austin, etc.).

  • @pete23234
    @pete23234 19 дней назад

    Home prices just crashed and burned in LA lol

  • @brettrosenbauer3299
    @brettrosenbauer3299 23 дня назад +1

    But unfortunately Nick has data to support.

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 21 день назад

      Nick has been horribly wrong for the past five years. If you read comments on his videos, you'll find many people angry they listened to him because now they can't qualify to buy, whereas they could have a few years ago.
      Don't believe me? Where is your house for 40-60% off like Nick has been promising? Is rent 50% less than a few years ago?
      How many years away is this crash? Is it 1, 3, 10 years away? State your number and stand by it.
      If you're wrong, admit it, and stop pretending like you know what you're talking about.

    • @billnunez4887
      @billnunez4887 20 дней назад

      Lol never listen to nobody. Only people "mad" at hims are people who bought in high and cant sell. Lol or a realtor who says buy his house. Only a odiota will buy a house in these times ​@@user-zk6fc3dw9e

  • @daydream605
    @daydream605 16 дней назад

    I honestly think this time, it'll be jobs that collapse first, then economy, food, and then houses will crash.
    I have no experience in life, I'm uneducated and an idiot
    But I firmly believe, within the next 4 years, we're gonna see some crazy stuff..
    And it's all to do with these little tiny computer chips made of silicone.
    Oh and quantum computing.
    Let's hope fusion works out ( next joke )
    Maybe batteries will save us (, laughs in planned obsolescence)
    Okay but robots could farm for us ( that's not allowed, it's now brown belt )
    Interest rates have remained good I'm fine ( what about your job lol )
    I know nothing.

  • @ChristopherGardner-x7h
    @ChristopherGardner-x7h 18 дней назад

    Since gold has been detached from the dollar, we have Nixon to thank for our "fiat currency" that has been a bull market for 50 years, yeah, just keep denying what is really happening, only someone that lives with their parents can say what this guy is

    • @DenverLivingwithSam
      @DenverLivingwithSam  18 дней назад

      I own two homes but yes, occasionally my parents do come to visit.

  • @billnunez4887
    @billnunez4887 20 дней назад

    Moon boy again. Will my comment get deleted like most moon boys do?

  • @billnunez4887
    @billnunez4887 20 дней назад

    ruclips.net/video/NM5DWmMZrwY/видео.htmlsi=gIssQIKzPjSvi4_z

  • @billnunez4887
    @billnunez4887 20 дней назад

    ruclips.net/video/A8p-dKypyKE/видео.htmlsi=ZM_UeYKwI_W2PKbE

  • @billnunez4887
    @billnunez4887 19 дней назад

    Im.amazed this moon boy doesnt delete my post. Wow respect to you moon boy. You the only 1. ruclips.net/video/tAMAdLtzvzo/видео.htmlsi=VdC4_pJyGv7ErXNy

    • @user-zk6fc3dw9e
      @user-zk6fc3dw9e 17 дней назад

      @@billnunez4887 It sounds like you got the crash bro playlist on lock.
      Quick question for you, how much money have the crash bros help you make the last few years with their predictions?
      Look at the median net worth of a home owner vs renter.