our Tony Awards predictions | which Broadway shows will win in 2024?
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- Опубликовано: 29 июн 2024
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OHMYGOD HEY!
Next weekend, the 2024 Tony Awards will take place in New York, celebrating the best of this year's new Broadway plays and musicals.
The nominated shows include Cabaret, Hell's Kitchen, Stereophonic, The Outsiders, Appropriate, Merrily we Roll Along, Mother Play, Suffs, The Notebook, and more.
Check out today's new video to find out which shows, performers and creatives @AeronJames and I think will be announced as winners next weekend!
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00:00 | introduction
01:28 | new musical
03:58 | new play
05:05 | play revival
05:58 | musical revival
07:50 | book of a musical
09:08 | original score
11:25 | scenic design of a play
13:08 | scenic design of a musical
14:50 | costume design of a play
16:53 | costume design of a musical
18:35 | lighting design of a play
20:15 | lighting design of a musical
21:34 | sound design of a play
22:51 | sound design of a musical
24:37 | direction of a play
26:35 | direction of a musical
27:41 | choreography
29:33 | orchestrations
31:22 | leading actor in a play
32:58 | leading actress in a play
33:53 | leading actor in a musical
35:56 | leading actress in a musical
37:39 | featured actor in a play
39:14 | featured actress in a play
40:50 | featured actor in a musical
42:00 | featured actress in a musical
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#broadway #theatre #awards 
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Friedman did an outstanding job of RESURRECTING a show that didn’t make it as an original. Cabaret has always been a winner. It’s MERRILY for sure.
I agree. The prior Cabaret revival in 1998 won Best Revival and the 1998 revival was nominated. Merrily is the ultimate redemption story.
Agree!!!
I hope The Outsiders wins best musical, easily the best of the nominees imo(and yes, I have seen them all)! It made me laugh, cry, and is a visual masterpiece ❤️
Just my opinion, but I figured i’d share it!
Pulling for Groff. He's phenomenal in Merrily we roll along
Jonathan Groff is absolutely a 100% should win for me! I am glad that Merrily has managed to keep the momentum up, saw it again last week and it is truly remarkable and for me so much hinges on Jonathan's performance of a such an unsympathetic on paper character.
If there’s competition at all for this category, it’s Groff versus Brian D’arcy James. Groff is going to take it though and I really want him to as well (as much as I love BDJ also).
I so wish Merrily would be recorded for PBS’s Great Performances!
The fact that Stereophonic just extended into next year shows that it’s likely gonna sweep! I actually would not be surprised if they pull off a shocker and win Best Score! Can you imagine a play beating a musical for score? People would lose their minds!
I know this isn't really on topic but I just want to say how much I admire you. Your tireless passion and promotion of the arts, your open mindedness and ability to discuss potentially difficult themes in such a calm and sensible way is really refreshing to me. I moved somewhere that is really barren in terms of the arts and my personal situation has made it difficult for me to travel. However your videos have really inspired me to start pushing myself more to see and do more. I know it's your job but I do love how you take a chance on so many unknown productions and it shows how much great art is out there. Thank you for all you do.
I've been waiting for this! A wild year. A Tony party snack suggestion- instead of cheese puffs, CHEESE SUFFS.Sorry, but that was irresistible.
I just tallied it, and y’all tied!! Haha
YOU ARE KIDDING ME
outsiders for best musical
You two are the cutest couple. I love how you get all excited about theater!! Bravo!
It's such an interesting year! Can't wait to see who wins, but in the meantime, I love these prediction videos! 😊
I think you might have underestimated The Outsiders' pull for Best Musical because of how entrenched it is in American culture (which I know you mentioned in your review). If anything, I think it comes down to Illinoise vs The Outsiders.
The issue the Outsiders have is that unless it comes back at Drama Desks, Hells Kitchen and Suffs have been the won winning the two other major awards at the 2 major precursors and while they don’t determine as much as most awards like the Oscars, they do tell us some stuff including best musical often. I think the outsiders could win but its momentum has kind of died. Illinoise momentum has also kind of died it seems like. HK and Suffs have been campaigning massively and we’ve seen with Wicked vs. Avenue Q, campaigning works.
Illinoise has the severe disadvantage of not only not being a traditional musical but also having a strict closing date. And I honestly think The Outsiders might be skewing too young for some voters.
I've been so confused this season about The Outsiders- I'm American and I can't remember hearing of it at all before the musical. We definitely did not read it at my school (late 2000s). I'm wondering how many other iconic American things I don't know about! Seems like this was a pretty big thing for me to miss?
I think saying the momentum for the Outsiders has died is kind of reaching. Especially considering so many young people are going to see it. @@rebeccakravitz7711
@@soothsayersourdough That's interesting because even when I substitute teach now it's something that middle schoolers are still reading! It's not necessarily standard curriculum everywhere, I'm sure it's been replaced by other more modern books over the years. And the movie is over 40 years old at this point so it's not really something you would have heard about unless it was introduced to you earlier. That being said, they're both worth checking out, for what they are the message still holds up well.
I’m looking at Kecia Lewis to win.
She was 18 when she went into “Dreamgirls” as a ‘Effie’ cover.
She has been giving great performances both on stage and on TV for 40 years.
She might not be a house hold name, but many producers, casting directors and down home theatre folks know her.
She’s already won the Lucille Lortel, and outer critics awards, for this role so there’s momentum.
I was lucky enough to see Kecia Lewis on for "Effie" in DREAMGIRLS just a few weeks before it closed at the Imperial summer of 1985. She was incredible. She brought down the house the way one knows she would. and she was like 19! amazing to walk into the theatre, have no idea who this person is, and she knocks it out of the park. plus I then saw her a few years later in the original cast of ONCE ON THIS ISLAND, where she was incredible. and she was also Nell Carter's understudy in AIN'T MISBEHAVIN' when it came back to the ambassador theatre in 1988. Yay Kecia Lewis!
Wow! You really know her work!
I believe, Mickey isn’t aware of this as he was making his prediction.
And, as I mentioned, she’s already won two major theatre awards for this role. She has momentum.
So, we will see what happens.
@@MWaits yay Kecia Lewis Tony winner! I saw her back in the day!!! what a talent!!!
Yes.
Both of these hosts are British.
And, because of that they might not know the subtleties of the New York theatre community.
They were off on this prediction, in my opinion.
I’m so happy for Kecia Lewis!
WILD TAKES as we get further in! The biases of Cabaret reviews in UK to US is so fascinating!!!
Also so excited for you to see my predictions with Kate and Ashley and stack against these 🙃✨
Based on everything I've read & heard, these are the sure-thing winners > Best Play: Stereophonic; Best Musical Revival: Merrily We Roll Along; Best Director of a Musical: Maria Friedman; Best Actor in a Musical: Jonathon Groff, & Best Actress in a Play: Sarah Paulson. Every other category will be close & up for grabs.
P.S. I have to know what themed snacks you have planned!
I am so torn on many of these categories.
I always enjoy your views and commentary. I also really enjoyed Aeron's breakdown on lighting and sound design.
Side note: I know you didn't film this tge sane day it came out but you posted this on Donald Duck day. So was that intentional? Seems like it would have to be but just curious :)
I actually did film this on the same day it came out, and the jumper choice was absolutely intentional! Love me some Donald Duck and had to celebrate his 90th birthday!
LUV your tshirt, Aeron!!!! ❤️👍👏🏼
Love these predictions! A part of me wishes they publish the results (percentages similar to gov't elections) so we can see how close these races really were but I also understand it may be embarrassing if a nominee found out he/she received 0% votes. Perhaps they can release them sometime in the future like in 5-10 years when emotions have already moved on. I'm excited for Sunday!
Thank you.
As the creators noted, the Tonys need three more awards.
1. Writer/book of a play.
2. Ensembles for both play and musical. The Oscars should add this category.
a) The SAGs already bestow this category.
b) One problem, so many actors would be included, which could make the individual awards lose prestige.
Agree there needs to be ensemble awards. SAG ensemble doesn’t take away from individual acting awards. Overdue for the Tonys and Oscars to have ensemble awards.
@yankee04 I agree. There could be one problem: who should be included?
1. In movies, the main and significant other roles are included.
2. In plays/musicals, there are so many roles, eight to nine shows a week, hopefully for months. More roles should be considered part of the ensemble. However, where do you cut off?
Honestly, ensemble awards could be kept in the theater where they performed on display or even smaller mini awards to everyone
Also the orchestra members should be included too!
The writer is who wins best play so best book of a play makes no sense. Ensemble, yes though.
@rebeccakravitz7711 that's why I brought it up.
1. Sometimes, the best written play is not the best overall.
2. In the Oscars, there are separate screenwriting awards.
3. For example, the Tony best play, the Harry Potter Lost Child one; many felt it was not the best written.
Illinoise, 100% a contemporary ballet, has already won by even being named a “new musical” on Broadway. Having seen Travis Wall do similar things with his dance company and Son Lux’s music, this one cracking into Broadway is beyond my wildest dreams. It has a closure date. It doesn’t need the trophy. Suffs NEEDS the win. I was there this past Saturday night and the amount of empty seats was surprising. Worse than when I saw Lempicka during previews at a matinee! This show deserves all the love and support Hamilton got and more.
The 1998 Cabaret won the Best Revival Tony. Do we think that might impact this year? My thinking is that the prior revivals have been both nominated (1988) and quite successful, so a push for Merrily as the ultimate redemption revival would mean even more.
Very possible! There are only around 5 shows in history that have ever won the best revival Tony for multiple productions including Company and The King and I.
Love your take on these. Agree with much of it. I do think Eden Espinosa has been on such a journey with Lempicka and should win Best Actress but it’s very unlikely. I think Kelli or Maleah will take it. I think Suffs will take best musical although HK wouldn’t shock me.
You will be watching and having midnight snacks, ill be watching and eating breakfast (yay Aus)
How are you watching the Tony Awards in the UK? I live in Ireland and I can't find out how to do it
I have a lot of will win and should win differences.
Hoping for good things for Merrily including in the acting categories. Fingers crossed for Suffs. Hoping Stereophonic does not win score, but many other Tonys. It was a win getting nominated in that category.
I don’t want Illinoise to win best musical. Cabaret revival is polarizing so will be interesting to see how it does.
A challenging year for voters.
I am rooting most for Merrily and Suffs. I saw nearly all of the nominees and they were the standouts to me.
Agreed on all points! I feel like those who think Stereophonic deserves to win Score either just like the novelty as was mentioned or think it's a big middle finger from those who don't like musicals. The nom was recognition, but you can't tell me Stereophonic has more going on musically (or more impactful music) than the other nominees with 15+ songs in their scores and instrumentals in between
@@mcbradlyn Same here!
I’m pulling for Merrily to win as much as possible!! As much as I adore Lindsay and think she should win (hers was my favorite performance out of the trio, even though I loved them all), I’ve heard others say that her poor attendance at the beginning of the run (before pregnancy related missed performances) could hurt her chances. I feel so lucky to have seen her incredible performance twice and would LOVE to see her win another Tony!
I hope Merrily takes it for musical revival; I didn't love Cabaret (and I like dark material, it's a fabulous score)
Nice touch including the Water For Elephants plush in the background 🙂
While watching this video, I finally broke down and bought a ticket to Stereophonic!
I hope you enjoy!
Get ready to witness a theatrical masterpiece!
I have many thoughts, as someone who saw every show this season (well the last 9 seasons humble brag) but Kelli O'Hara is doing the best stage work she has EVER done...no way she loses. A friend of mine is a Tony voter and I cannot wait to pick his brain this week.
I love this Here Lies Love love :)
Sorry guys....best score: Adam Guettel my pick ( as of today ). I am still absorbing the new musical CD"s but right now my pick is Adam for score. Not even gotton to Suffs yet.
Surprisingly almost all of my big predictions came true. I can't say I'm a huge fan Merrily We Roll Along but I was really happy to see Jonathan Groff win. I love Daniel Radcliffe and was happy for him but he wasn't my personal choice for that category so I can't honestly say I was overly thrilled either. The show winning Best Revival was a gimme and Cabaret already won the award back in '98 and that revival (imo) was a lot better. Yes the set design and the way they transformed the theatre for this new revival is cool but I still prefer the '98 revival.
Finally I'm beyond thrilled that The Outsiders won for Best Musical. I've seen the show twice now and love everything about it. I'll admit I'm biased on this one because I grew up in the 90s loving both the book and Coppola's movie version so I'm one incredibly happy theatre geek right now. ❤️
I think Illinoise is out of the race for best musical, it's closing in August and there are more conventional darlings nominated.
Here's hoping for Suffs to get some love!!
As a Brit who has never seen anything on Broadway (yet), am I right in thinking (certainly at the moment) the output there seems more sophisticated than the West End? There seems to be a lot of creativity there at the moment. I've noticed the websites and trailers for Broadway shows seems to be more creative than the West End.
I think it would be so cool to see all 3 of the actors in Merrily win their categories
I loved Outsiders with my whole heart and i really want it to win best musical but i didnt see hells kitchen suffs or illinoise so im not objective
Who gets to be a Tony voter and nominator?
Featured actress in a musical is a CATEGORY this year. Phew. Don't envy the Tony voters on that one.
Stereophonic is vastly overrated! The acting and singing is decent but if you have seen any band/album recording documentaries that’s exactly what this is but onstage. Also it definitely doesn’t need to be over 3 hours long! I don’t know why it’s the most Tony nominated play of all time? I fell asleep several times!
Theater is subjective. I didn't feel like Stereophonic was long at all. It was the perfect combination of sound design, interesting score, and strong actors.
@@origami_wasp I so wanted to love it and like I said I enjoyed the performances and music I just didn’t get why it needed to be over 3 hours or why it was the most Tony nominated play of all time when it’s a concept that has been done before.
Did you wear the Donald sweatshirt for his 90th birthday on 6/9? We share the day. Exciting stuff. 😬
I did! A belated Happy Birthday to you and Donald Duck!
@@MickeyJoTheatre Awe, that’s awesome. One more reason why you guys are great. The details. Sorry, if you mentioned it in the video. I haven’t watched the whole thing yet (operative word). Thanks for responding. :)
And thank you.🙏🏽
What are your thoughts on Stereophonics NOT being given a performance slot?
I'm personally sad about it AND I think it's a shortsighted decision, we should be celebrating and platforming all of the art, especially the new, innovative and exciting.
It’d be real odd if Stereophonic wins score but doesn’t perform…
I think I heard that Stereophonic decided they did not want to perform
I read somewhere that they said they applied to perform and were told no :\
You are forgetting that The Great Comet did many of those design tricks years before Cabaret so maybe the Tony voters won’t be as impressed.
The 2 Gatzbys....were they eleigible for this season ? Did JRB"s "The Connector" qualify for this season ? " Days of Wine and Roses" ?
Only the Jeremy Jordan Gatsby, DOWR yes, the connector wasn’t on bway.
@@ht-xs5ti Wasnt it at Lincoln Center ?
@@fairamir1 no
@@fairamir1 52nd and 10th / MCC
Once again I am on my knees begging for Brian D'Arcy James to win the tony and once again I'm (probably) going to be disappointed because the Tony voters are not the Tony nominators (god I wish they were).
I wish Groff and BDJ could tie and each get one. They were both incredible.
@@mcbradlyn I would be so down for that!
@@thesingingthing it’s just so hard that both of them had career-defining roles in the same year. they’re just both so good!
Still want a Tony for Conrad :(
I know the Oliviers could do with an extra category or two - but why do the Tonys separate plays and musicals for lighting, set design and costume? I can see that directing a play and musical might require different skill sets, but even then, the Oliviers don’t separate the category. Is it necessary for the scenic/design elements, other than simply to recognise more people? Genuinely would love to know the rationale here!
Hi! I'm from America, and while I do see where you're coming from, there are some good reasons for separating the categories.
1. While the variation between the two can, well, vary, musicals are 98% of the time going to be fantastical than plays, just from the medium alone. Because of this play set designs have to be more grounded in reality or they have to be the main focus of the show (like in Life of Pi). With musicals, on the other hand, the set has to match the level of fantasy as the show and also have room for dance (if there is any)
2. On Broadway musicals get A LOT more attention. Like, this is the first time a play has gotten just as much attention as Musical. This bias would probably spread into other categories, so shows that absolutely deserve praise for their costumes and set won't get it simply because they were a play. (from my understanding, this happens in reverse with the Oliviers, if Newsies not getting a set nom is any indication).
3. There are so many things that open on Broadway, and it's nice to give appreciation to 10 instead of 5.
Those are my reasons. The Oliviers have always seemed backwards to me. New music should in almost scenarios, in my opinion exclusively go to musicals simply because the music in a Musical is what separates it from a play. Standing at the Skies Edge winning as a jukebox musical last year is insane to me (it wouldn't even eligible at the Tonys), especially since it was up against Bonnie and Clyde and Newsies and neither of those got noms.
@@gretas39 thanks for replying - I can also see where you’re coming from on this. I still think I lie somewhere in the middle - the Oliviers need an extra category or two, the Tonys need to slim down. The musicals vs plays bias on both sides of the Atlantic is an interesting one isn’t it. I just think that stage design/lighting/costume is about meeting the challenges presented by the production , whatever they may be. Plays can have plenty of movement on stage requiring space, for instance - without needing to have dancing, or a huge variety of scenes requiring clever transition. A panel of designers should be able to work out who’s done impressive work and narrow it down to 5. There are no specialist courses entitled ‘lighting for musicals’ - it’s the same skill and designers work across the two. I don’t think these designers are sitting there saying ‘but wouldn’t it be nice if a *play* won?’ The Oliviers in the past have also recognised designers for their work across two or three productions (which might be a mixture of genres) and it’s come as a single nomination.
Is it ‘backwards’ to keep the nominations highly selective? Arguably it means more. Jamie Lloyd this year would have been a shoe-in for best director of a musical - but winning over the directors of plays at the National Theatre was a real feat. I feel similarly about the Oscars (Best Picture noms meant more when it was 5 not 10). As for the Golden Globes, it feels like everyone has one 😂 And of course recognition/appreciation doesn’t come only in the form of award nominations - a good review also counts.
Is it the case that Sky’s Edge would not be eligible at the Tonys? I’m sure jukebox musicals have been nominated (and won) before. Sky’s Edge has an absolutely superb book and the orchestrations really transform the dramatic power of the songs, if you listen to them alongside Hawley’s originals. I agree with you that new music should generally get the win - I don’t really like jukebox musicals as a rule - I think they’re a bit lazy - but I make an exception for this one!
I get where you’re coming from, and I’m probably just used the Tony’s format more, but I’ve always appreciated the separate categories.
I’m sorry if I wasn’t clear about standing at the skies edge - I’m sure the orchestrations were great. What I meant was that the score category at Tony’s is specifically original score, so jukebox musicals aren’t eligible. They are, however, eligible for the best orchestrations category.
@@gretas39 it’s great that the Tonys recognise original score. It’s a discussion about whether to add that to the Olivier categories (maybe it’s existed in the past? Not sure) - I’m just not sure if London gets enough (new) musicals each year to justify it… I need to get myself to Broadway!
Great picks.
When will the Tonys get rid of gendered based awards? They could replace them with two best lead and featured performers,
1. Same for the Oscars and Emmys.
2. Some Broadway awards have already eliminated gender, same with the Grammys.
If you remove gendered categories (i dont agree) do shows limit how many perfomers can qualify? Do you then have to have "performers in new show" and "performers in revival"?
And....what happens if you end up with all men nominated....there would be outrage over snubs
Which is what happens with the Brits, Sam Smith petitioned it to be "artist of the year" not gendered, and then was outraged that only men were nominated
So I actually agree that they should get rid of the gendered awards and split by new vs revival, creating a role and recreating one are very different things.
I also don't think it is likely to be male dominated, look at this year's nominations, with more women in the supporting category for musicals.
@@MickeyJoTheatre im glad you agree with that suggestion, esp given history. I mean look at 2016 Tonys.....
Hot take: there should only be one winner if that were ever to happen with the same number of nominees. it's unfair to put two winners in acting when all other categories only have one, unless there's a tie.
Hard to take y’all seriously when you think Best Revival of a Musical is going to be “close”…no dears it’s not. “Cabaret” might win costumes? But that’s it. Still ❤ the content though…
I agree that Cabaret is way overrepresented here.
My question: please explain what makes merrily we roll along unique? What is merrily doing that makes it stand out other then putting celebrities in the leads and using the “our composer died” card from the fans. This is genuine curiosity because everything I have seen from merrily looks so average. At least cabaret went bold.
I could see for supporting female musical to be a tie.
Who are the favourites to win in your opinion ?
The BEST play is either Jaja or Fr Rep. Saw both can’t decide. Saw Stereo and it needed better editing, and a better dialogue coach.
I just got back from seeing the best musical nominees, and it’s a absolute crime that The Notebook was shut out. It was superior to any of the five nominees.
DANYA! LESLIE NO CHANCE - JESSICA LANGE GROFF PLUNKETT CELIA OR SARAH DANIEL OR SKYE KECIA OR BEBE
After having my hopes so high for the outsiders, the only two wins it should receive are best featured actor (Joshua Boone as Dally) and *maybe* best choreography (due to the rumble only).
I was severely disappointed in the outsiders, however, Joshua Boone gave the best acting performance i have seen on Broadway DESPITE the fact they completely butchered his characters death.
I actually disagree. I went into it knowing nothing other than it was generally good, and was blown away. It's far better adaption than the movie in my opinion. Also, Dally's death in the book and movie never made sense to me. The death in the musical is not only more meaningful for Ponyboy, but also just makes more sense.
@gretas39 how many broadway shows have you seen?
@@JimboSlice_Yo Like 20 something. I don't live in the NYC area, but I try to go when I can and I see tours
If Daniel Radcliffe wins a Tony I will indeed cry 😂
Hope you had your tissues on hand. lol
Edit: I knew that I would get some stern (and frankly unconstructive) feedback for this opinion, so I'm clarifying that this is purely my opinion that is not intended to and should not offend.
While I haven't seen Suffs, I did listen to the soundtrack, and listening to it was, in a word... frustrating. It's a good idea as a show with a large and relevant message, but the score just sounded so samey and wooden. In fact, listening to "The March" sounded like listening to "My Shot" from you know what. Funny enough, Miranda himself congratulated this show that, for all I can tell, has a bootleg Hamilton score. There were moments that I sincerely wanted to connect to the character motivations through song, but the overly consistent tone of the score just wouldn't let me. Needless to say, I was shocked by how much of a rave review you gave it. If you ask me, the general appeal of Suffs is virtue signaling and pandering to the liberal political agenda, and these things do not a great musical make. Not that messaging encouraging audiences to participate in politics is bad, but such an important message as this cannot be properly realized with a score like this. I can't say anything about the book or the performances of course, but Suffs, from my vantage point, sounds significantly overrated.
By comparison, The Outsiders' score is sincerely affecting and just enough more memorable. Yes, it is not the strongest year for scores in general, but The Outsiders was one of the few that I could remember some melodies from and that affected me emotionally. Also, this score actually took me on a journey in tones, with plenty of heart and grit to enjoy. Therefore, The Outsiders is my easy bet as the frontrunner for the award for Best Original Score.
I agree with your criticism of the Suffs soundtrack. Haven’t listened to outsiders but suffs just seemed very samey and even as a “woke” liberal I found it to be kind of boring from the soundtrack.
@@rebeccakravitz7711 As more of a centrist in politics, I don't want to make the impression that wokeism is bad as a concept. Again, I sympathize and empathize with the story Taub is trying to get across, but it just doesn't sound unbiased with this score and the word of mouth I've heard.
@@rebeccakravitz7711 Also, I do suggest listening to The Outsiders album. I think people are hard pressed not to come away from this score unaffected.
I listened to some of the Outsiders music. It was fine, but didn’t excite me and it wasn’t memorable. Enjoyed Suffs a lot and I do remember some songs.
Virtue signaling? Seriously? It’s a piece of history that has been neglected for far too long. It’s overdue that these women get a voice to tell their story.
@@yankee04 Strawman fallacy. I mentioned I don’t think those qualities are necessarily bad, just not sufficiently realized in this score. If you had a better time with the Suffs soundtrack, all the power to you. Obviously, I only speak for myself, so I hope to clarify my point to avoid misunderstanding.
Illinoise is a limited run contemporary dance concert with a confusing book and very diction-challenged singers.
HELLS KITCHEN BEST MUSICAL
Anything but jukebox musical.
Any predictions for the ceremony broadcast itself???
Love these predictions! A part of me wishes they publish the results (percentages similar to gov't elections) so we can see how close these races really were but I also understand it may be embarrassing if a nominee found out he/she received 0% votes. Perhaps they can release them sometime in the future like in 5-10 years when emotions have already moved on. I'm excited for Sunday!