So if we put into account here that he was correct in 9 of 10 elections over dekades... and every time the side he didn't pick tryd so hard to disregard what he predicted because they didn't liked it... the chance to be correct in 9 of 10 cases is 0.0098 good luck gambling.
The 13 Keys make sense only if you're being honest and don't have a bias towards or against one candidate. This dude literally said the economy is roaring right now - that alone killed his cred.
Exactly, they just adhere to whatever the party line is no matter what and then just passive aggressively push past it to the next thing if they're wrong.
How could he possibly know that the democrats would get scared? There are always mitigating factors. And people are so sick of Trump that Biden probably would have won anyway. Let's face it, Trump hasn't won an election since 2016. 2018 was a disaster for Trump Repbulicans and so were 2020 and 2022.
@@tylerk4641 way too early to predict that. Kamala hasn’t even opened her mouth yet to remind everyone why she isn’t liked. Don’t be shocked when you find out.
Yeah that was due to his keys though that he stays loyal to. Whether you or I agree with them, he does tend to be right. And in this case I thought he was going to be wrong on this one( before he dropped out), but we don't even get a chance to see that now. Him saying his model is wrong now seems silly. Just my opinion.
Totally agree with you about Lichtman's subjective keys. I think he has been a lucky SOB in the past and these keys will soon turn into cards as his house of cards collapses.
No prediction system could ever be completely perfect. Dems realized Biden was hurting the party image... that's all that mattered. Fear set in amongst other candidates that need the party to be strong in order for them to win their next election so the party freaked out.
@laurymc1977it’s not illegal, candidates are not forced to continue serving. It was super dishonest and underhanded though, especially the way they continue to lie and say it’s not because of his dementia
@@adanalyst6925based on the fact about 18 hours prior to them organizing this coup, he stated only if GOD comes down and tells me to or for some medical reason is the only way I would drop out of the race, he also stated yesterday as well that they forced him out, it wasn’t a matter of him not wanting to serve it was them FORCING him to be replaced because he would probably lose and someone else might not which is I believe must be illegal and if it’s not that would suck if the laws are that loose.
Lichtman is a fraud bc his “model” doesn’t require he quantify his predictions. He simply predicts who wins. His record is “accurate” since the ‘84 election, when Reagan won 525 EVs lmfao. I’m sure there are a few hundred thousand Americans that have the same record as Lichtman having made their predictions from an arm chair. It’s a lot more impressive when a poll aggregator calls 49/50 states correct based on their polling models, which a number of them have.
As far as Charisma Lichtman explicitly lays out what examples of that are, Ike, Roosevelt, Kennedy, Reagan, Obama, those once in a lifetime time talent figures or national war heroes like Eisenhower (Ike). Trump doesn’t fit that category as Trump is contrastive and appeals to a narrow base. Trump doesn’t unite the nation.
It doesn't matter if Allan Lichtman hates Trump or whatever -- his track records shows his analysis is correct. You can both hate or dislike something, and be able to have an objective view on things. I know it's a difficult concept to grasp, but it's entirely possible.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 PLEASE! That toupee belongs in the Nixon era, where he should’ve left it, if he wasn’t such a horrible person I wouldn’t have brought it up, but he IS, trying to influence people that are uninformed, and will deserve what happens to his floppy-flop reputation and career after this cycle.
@@Emm325 Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
Well, as a Trump supporter who has listened to him a lot, here's why I kinda disagree, but also agree. Disagree with you: Lichtman always says that the keys are often set incorrectly, because the keys require you to be 100% objective. For example, Major policy change (7) is not based on if you like the policy, but rather on if the candidate does a lot of things, good or bad. I'd say Obama did a lot of things, despite the fact that I didn't love it. Regarding something like social unrest, it needs to be significant, like 2020. Campus protests don't count. The scandal key can only be turned if it's a legit scandal, like Watergate, or Clinton. The charisma keys require a candidate to be as widely charismatic as Reagan, or Kennedy, which is why Trump doesn't qualify. He also wrote a book on how to judge each key. Point is, it's not just his random opinions. He's actually USUALLY incredibly objective. Agree with you: I do believe that the keys might be outdated, or they might just not work sometimes. The keys don't account for the border, inflation or other economic problem like cost of housing, age, etc. I think the keys might be broken this time because of the nature of the transition between Biden and Harris. I'd argue that the second key goes to trump, because there was a primary contest - to such an extent that they replaced their candidate. Look, he might end up being correct in this election, because it's going to be close, but the keys would've absolutely failed had Biden stayed in the race.
how can you say the keys might be outdated when they have yet to be wrong. And why should the keys account to for the border, inflation, housing, etc. when they have correctly predicted all previous elections without looking at these factors. also you could look at any election in history, cherry pick one or two unique issues to that election, and then say "the keys might be broken because of this or that reason" so I don't think that's a very compelling reason to reject the keys
His model predicts whether the party in power retains the White House. So the fact his keys are predicting the Democrats will win doesn't change just because the candidate changes from Biden to Harris unless other factors change the keys
@@TinaLy-gf3bhKamala Harris is going to lose big time in November. Her supporters think they got it going on with her campaign, but they really don't, it's all fake and those ratings are fake as well. Remember in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was beating Donald Trump in the ratings and all the sudden he beat her in the election. Don't believe those fake ratings it's just the energize her base and try to make her supporters constituents think she have a chance! Stop looking back 2020!!!!
@@Joshua-ch2ijKamala Harris is going to lose big time in November. Her supporters think they got it going on with her campaign, but they really don't, it's all fake and those ratings are fake as well. Remember in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was beating Donald Trump in the ratings and all the sudden he beat her in the election. Don't believe those fake ratings it's just the energize her base and try to make her supporters constituents think she have a chance! Stop looking back 2020!!!!
I have Trump Wins. 7 to 1 - I negated Key 2, 3, 11, 12, 13 because most of those are zippo. The only key - No Third Party - I actually gifted that leans to the Dems.
Yet those “objective keys” predicted 10 presidents correctly! And those “objective keys” predicted Trump in 2016. Yall hating bc it doesn’t help your lord and savior trump.
@@Valerielopez2002 Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
You clearly don't know anything about the keys and how they are measured. The fact that you have taken Key 13 from Harris shows your own internal bias. Trump is not Reagan. He is one of the most unpopular politicians in US history. He appeals to his base; he by no means is moving nations with the spoken word. Independents are not flocking to him in mass for that reason.
He was wrong in 2000 when he predicted Gore, and he also predicted Trump to win the popular vote in 2016. And anyone with half a brain knew Reagan and Obama would win.
7:34 He's polling worse than Gary Johnson did on average(GJ was 8% on average, peaking briefly at 13 in August, got 3.8%) and way worse than Ross Perot(35% polling, got 19%). RFK Jr is set to get Ralph Nader 2000 margins at best.
(5% is for final outcome, 10% is what Allan goes off in August for the prediction. It's the only key that can be predicted correctly and end up wrong due to this inherent error. Polling 5% means a final actual score quite a bit lower. Nader was polling around 4-5% and got 2.7%, I expect RFK to be just ahead of him, but behind Gary, assuming he stays in)
Has nothing to do with the Vice President, the key is true, because all is required is a policy change, doesn’t even have to be a popular one, it could be one that everyone hates
@@4me2knowu2findout3 HEY ALAN! Aw, did CNN stop calling after the Biden thing?!? Stick to your little show with your son, your bias is more obvious than your toupee…and NEITHER ARE A GOOD LOOK. End of story!!!!!!
@@Emm325 The key is based on major policy, FDR new deal and Obama the Affordable Care Act. Trumps major achievement was the Covid vaccine but republicans dislike vaccines so it doesnt really apply to him.
Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI inflation reports were just posted today that we are on the brink of a recession and yeah.. no social unrest, you gotta be crazy. This election is provoking social unrest and our country has been through some crazy things the past 4 years. The keys are opinionated and he claims 4 keys have fallen but you could argue 2-3 more of the keys either way.
You need to understand the keys before writing such comments. As he says, if you want to develop your own system to predict the results, go right ahead, but if you're going to use his system, you can't change the definitions. He explains ose keys as follows: "Strong short-term economy - No recession in the election year. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the organisation of experts who decide whether there is a recession. An independent definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth." "Strong long-term economy - Purely mathematical. It asks whether, per capita, real economic growth in the term at least equals or exceeds the average of the previous two terms. Real growth means it’s adjusted for inflation." "No social unrest - This can’t be sporadic protests. It has to be massive protests or unrest like we saw in the 1960s or during the Black Lives Matter movement, where millions of people were out on the streets. There’s a lot of violence, deaths. One of the hallmarks of social unrest in the 1960s was the explosion of violence and protest at the Democratic Convention in Chicago."
@@erikzoe1 I understand the economy, to say we haven’t had social unrest is ridiculous, as there has been scandals at the White House as well, missing cocaine, Joe Biden has Alzheimer’s or has obviously been in mental decline. And how we left Afghanistan and all the unrest with have with foreign countries. I just think it’s a lot closer than a lot of people make it seem. These 13 keys may favor Kamela but not by much and in my opinion, it’s still based on one key.. I hope Trump wins personally, Kamela and the democrats are crazy and how they choose to spend our tax money is disgraceful.
@@sherbearpatson884 it takes an intelligent person to identify a greater intelligent person, are you certain you see a lack there of or a lack of your own capability to detect greater intelligence
Personally, I think Lichtman should do the smart thing and not apply his model to this election because of the unprecedented situation. The primary winner (Biden) dropped out and was replaced with a totally unknown commodity. If he makes a prediction and he's wrong, he's going to regret it. I would love to see him be wrong just because Im sick of hearing about him.
He has mentioned in other videos that there have been a few other unprecedented elections yet his keys stood the test of time. He said the keys work in all situations. Also, Harris is not totally Unknown. She is VP.
@@Valerielopez2002 Strongly disagree. Lichtman's model has only been applied "in real time" to elections since Reagan, none of those had any remarkable situations, like the swapping of a nominee AFTER the primaries. When Lichtman applies his model "retroactively" to elections that predate his model, he is interpreting the keys with all the benefits of history's hindsights. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
@@underwaterlevelz1947 Oh I see your perspective. I also her that, after 2016, he changed his model from popular vote to electorate vote (or vice versa, i cant remember). Plus this guys views of trump, harris and biden are greatly distorted.
@Valerielopez2002 This is the most stressful election of my life. I'm only 22 bro. I hope Trump wins but if he doesnt? Well im still gonna have to go to work in the morning.😂😂😂😂
I will say this again and again maybe some will learn There are 3 types of voters 1) Straight voters: will vote one way no matter what either Republican or Democrat there is no chance in Hell they will change their mind 2) The IT/Hipster/Cool voter: This voter is basically like high schooler voting for class president Basically they are going to vote on who think is cool Examples Lincoln grows a beard, got him votes ( research it) Bill Clinton was young and hip, & play the Saxophone so the image was he was laid back cool dude Obama we finally get black man president yay That would describe voter 2 Last and the hardest voter to win over 3) How have I’ve been doing in the last 4 yrs If this voter is struggling to make ends meet the current political party will generally not receive a vote from this voter/ However if they are doing find, they are not struggling to make end meets the current political party in White House will generally receive the voter vote
Yeah I don't trust the guy. I think a lot of these guys got some of kind of insider information. Just like he said biden would win 2020 but everyone knows (who pays attention) that he did not win. "Oh but look at his track record" yeah if the elections rigged and you know that of course you'll get it right.
Make sure you do your research on every key. The Long-Term key isn't subjective, it's only math. Real GDP per capita has equaled or gone up compared to the two previous terms. That is the only criteria, so it would be true.
@@owen_mania Even if that's the case, speak to anyone on the street and they'll tell you that they're struggling to buy groceries and pay their bills. My wife and I both have great jobs and we're still having to cut back on any unnecessary expenses. I'm not sure if the GDP growth will favor Democrats in this case.
@@sergeantkitty I mean there is the argument for perception of the economy over tangible results, but Lichtman has always crusaded against it in all the elections he has covered, and he has turned out to be correct.
Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
@@Salty_Knuckles Yep, it shows a healthy and active party that is able to adapt. It was also the vast will of the people, with people generally believing both Biden and Trump are too old.
I agree a lot of these are subjective, but with Charismatic Candidate he specifically said it was people viewed as charismatic and special by EVERYONE on both sides. (Specifically citing FDR and Reagan who won in massive record sized landslides and were basically the foundation of an entire era of the party system and dominated their own parties dogma for decades). So Harris and Trump can't qualify, neither of them. The right doesn't view Harris as charismatic and awesome and the left doesn't view Trump as charismatic and awesome. This one is a rare key to flip and it tends to result in landslides or at least near-landslides(Obama 2008 was the last to flip it, Obama 2012 failed it as by that point he had too much hate from the right and too much doubt within)
@@Guy-cb1oh Americans wanted out, but not in the manner that the Biden administration pulled out the troops. Highly disorganized, made America look weak and we lost 12 soldiers.
Trump isn't charismatic. By definition, charisma is the ability to inspire devotion. How is demanding loyalty through fear tactics and gaslighting charismatic? Would love for someone to tell me why I'm wrong, because I despise Harris.
@@barrywagoner5191 that is such a biased take. Do you know how much he’s impacting millions of people when you don’t look at it from the lens of opposition?
@@Rodkicks88 the key is about charisma for both sides. Reagan is an example of an extremely charismatic president so was FDR and Roosevelt. Obama kinda is close put nowhere near those 2 trump is very charismatic to his own voter base not to the other side
I'm starting to wonder if guys like him got a little inside baseball. Just like he predicted Joe would win but we all know Joe cheated just with how the numbers make no logical sense and that's just on the surface.
the keys are mostly subjective as you state. easy for Lichtman to turn if his keys arent correct. i would say #1, #3,#4,#6,#8,#10,#11 and #13 are false. 8 for Trump. I could easily debate Lichtman on his positions.
According to Lichtman, to properly forcast with the 13 keys, you have to leave your own politics out of it. The social unrest key has a very high threshold to turn, which has only recently happened in 2020 with the George Floyd protests. There was massive social unrest that disrupted the social order. The Israel and Palestine protests have not (at least not yet) gotten to the level of turning the key false. The no scandal key involves no direct scandal involving the president. The president having a bad debate and being pressured to step aside is not a scandal. A scandal, for example, is something like impeachment. For those arguing that the Hunter Biden case counts as scandal, it does not since it does not directly attack the president. Lastly, in terms of charisma, think about it this way. Reagan and FDR were considered charismatic in this model. One thing that one would see was a great deal of Reagan democrats. Are there a great deal of Trump democrats? Trump, while exciting and entertaining only really appeals to his narrow base of voters. In 2016 when Lichtman predicted Trump would win, he kept his own politics out of it. While the bias is always there, using the guidelines Lichtman set up is how one can use this model. While it may not seem perfect, it did predict all elections it was implemented on, except for one. One may not like it, but this method has demonstrated more forecasting merit than anything else I have seen so far.
@@jeffreym2361 The one that was off. Granted the election was extremely close and controversial, but other than that, the model has predicted the president correctly. Only time will tell what could break the keys more and how Lichtman could improve him model, but for now, it is the best we have.
He said he was on track to win. According to the model, with Biden they were down four keys, but with Harris in as nominee they’re down five. So the fact that the dens forced him out they decreased the margin to win
@@KrunkDiddelyUmptiousbro. No. He has been so over the top making sure people realize he has not made a prediction yet. I made a comment to a girl a few comments up, you should read it. It's basically about wanting to believe things and dieing with it because you WANT to believe it, instead of when you find out you're wrong, you say "Oh shit, I guess I was mistaken". It's not the end ofnthe world. The only problem is, people used to adjust their opinions given new information. That doesn't really happen anymore. People now feel like they have to hold their opinions no matter what they find out because they are so attached to them.
Is that a thing? Being a trump supporter and not liking the 13 keys? If so, I didn't even know that and it's pretty interesting. I'll admit part of this comment is a reaction to the guy that responded to your thread.
@Guy-cb1oh This is the thing. People like you are so predetermined to hate him that no matter what is said about him, no matter what comparison is made, it has to be negative on some way for you to feel vindicated. God forbid you make an impartial assessment or go 5 seconds without showing your bias. Turn off the phone once in a while, read a book. It's nice.
@@Guy-cb1oh No, you're just buying into whatever you were told to think. There isn't substance behind your opinion. If there were, you wouldn't go around with stupid ass quips like that reflects an actual opinion.
So what Lichtmans list is saying is he got down to point 13 and decided “Trumps not charismatic because if I say he is then he’ll reach 6 points and win with my model” lol shameless
In order to win that key, you must appeal to both parties. I don't see any Democrats for Trump. Trump only appeals to a very slim slice of the electorate.
@@LorrinOfficial There's nothing in that key that says they need to appeal to both parties. He's obviously charismatic and a national hero. This entire key is a joke.
@@Tony-hn8qyits in his book, he's also been explaining his system since he wrote the original paper in 1981 when he predicted reagan's win 3 years ahead of the election. it's not exactly hidden knowledge
Not to mention “HIS” keys are ripped off of another, prior study, I went into a rabbit hole of research a week ago after seeing his INSANELY LIB BIAS, he’s as crooked as a four dollar bill (and a toupee from the 70’s)
@@Tony-hn8qy So you're criticizing the keys for being "opinionated" yet you believe the man with a ~35% approval rating during the final months of his presidency is a national hero? What a joke. Also, Lichtman has stated multiple times on his livestreams that you must be broadly liked by both sides of the electorate in order to flip the key.
Wtf lol. The idea of the keys is guessing how people will vote. Good Lord I will be so happy when Trump is gone, he has dumb down our society so much these past 9 years
@@saschagrusche8449 The only evidence they have that they are valid is they predicted the presidential election correctly in 9 out of the last 10 elections. The only one they missed was Gore and that was decided by the Supreme Court not allowing another recount in Florida that Bush won by 500 votes (remember hanging chads?)
My guess is he’s leaning left based of emotions right now. But once his final decision is made he’ll try to be more unbiased and he might pick trump then.
I predict👆As the election nears, Lichtman will bite the bullet and predict a Trump win because even if he personally wants a Harris win, he doesn’t want to be wrong!
Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
He favors the democrat party and clearly shows it. That right there is bias and a red flag. If he were credible, he wouldn't be for any one candidate. Instead, he chooses to be partisan. Not a good look.
@@dustinsindledecker154 yes he was. While I don’t disrespect the model, Allan is biased and is an anti-Trump guy, you cannot deny that. How can we trust a partisan guy who said Biden would win by a mile? He was correct in the past because he wasn’t against a candidate. Now he is, and it’s against Trump, so imo, it would be hard to believe him.
Biden left classified documents out when he was a senator and an appointed prosecutor found him guilty but said he was too braindead to stand trial. That’s a scandal.
hahaha yeah we should definitely use your system, just give it to the guy who looks the most "badass" at a particular moment in time. Im sure that would work flawlessly over the history of all presidential elections 😂
Joe, is Discount Divorce Photography a real company? I can believe that stressed out and depressed people would want photographs that make them look better, maybe feel better about the future. Hot photos for dating websites?
I have a theory that every election, at least since JFK, has boiled down to who was the most charismatic candidate. With one exception and that is 2020. I think that was just because of COVID and how everyone was unhappy.
I don’t think Lichtman’s system is entirely accurate but he has predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections with this system. I believe he understands these keys the best.
If you watch the prof’s interview he goes in depth with multiple facts and resources where he gets the answers from. None of it is opinion. He chose trump in 2016 also
Do you have Facebook or instagram? I would love to touch base with you after the election and see if she is still right. I'm going to guess now. God forbid your mamaw is wrong 🤷♂️
So it's a thing to dislike someone because they disagree with who you think will be president? I'm quickly learning Trump people don't like this guy, it's super weird bro
@@3227phoenix and he still got a prediction wrong. His prediction will not determine the election, and he's clearly gonna pick Kamala because he's pandered his content to leftists
By my count, and I'm trying to be as unbiased as humanly possible, I count 9 keys for Trump, 2 for Harris and 2 that are undecided. K4 - 3rd and 4th party candidates are definitely effecting the race - in Trumps favor. K5 & K6 go to Trump as everyone has doubt about the current and future economy. Thanks, I can sleep a little better now.
You dont have a good understanding of how the keys are issued. Theres too much misunderstandings here to comment kn all of them. Maybe do more research first. Also remember, Lichtman predicted Trump in 2016. Hes a democrat but his track record has been spot on
I agree. The lack of research and lack of academic understanding of Lichtman's methodology here is embarrassing. I'm going to take a wild guess that the depressed ginger doesn't even have a research masters.
7 elections, with half of them being easy to predict (we all knew Clinton was winning in '96 and Obama in '08). He was wrong about the closest election (2000). Not a huge sample size to call the predictive power of these keys impressive
@@ricky129rl4263 He was not wrong about 2000. It has been proven that 2000 was a stolen election due to voter suppression in Florida, and Al Gore was the rightful winner of Florida which would have given him the electoral vote. ruclips.net/video/D57mZejswkI/видео.html Also, the keys were developed by studying the history of elections right the way back to the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860, so they have been right for 160 years of elections. That is a huge sample. Obviously it is a prediction, not a guarantee, but the keys have been right since 1860.
Have you actually listened to lichman talk? It's easy to always get a prediction "right" when your prediction is so unclear and ambitious that you actually are predicting both sides to win...also many of the keys are subjective and up to opinion
Just for starts, Lichtman never predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 🤡 He simply predicted a Trump victory Also, you mispronounced his name
Here's how....Dont mail your mail in ballots. Bring it the poll center unopened. Fill it in there n drop it yourself in the election box. Guard your votes...TRUMP47 ! Lets do this !!!
I would say 1-2 true keys: 13 (not an exceptionally charismatic challenger), and assuming no contest at the convention, 2. A useful way to think of the keys: Will it shift 1% of voters from incumbency to challenger party? Or, will it shift 2% of voters from incumbency party to 3rd party or not vote? Here's my explanation for the keys that differ from the video: 7 Major policy- do independents largely know what this would be? Have voters experienced this change firsthand. Think: Is there any policy change that could motivate 1-2% to vote for the incumbent party? 5&6 Economy- I prefer to think in terms of what voters care and feel the most on: real income (vs. economic productivity). Would 2-4% of swingable voters turn against the incumbent party based on the economy? 4 Third party- Let's say about 50% of third party votes take away from a party, and 50% are new voters who otherwise wouldn't have voted. Would it seem plausible that 2% (not 1% because these people wouldn't go from D to R or vice versa, but from D/R to neither) of main party voters feel dissatisfied enough to vote 3rd party? If you assume each key = 2% shift in vote total between the two parties and 6 false keys = Dem +2 national popular vote, then 11 false keys = Trump +8 nationally.
Lichtman has been EXTREMELY biased this election cycle. He didn’t show such an insane bias in 2020 or 2016.
How can you say that? I think you are the bias one.
So if we put into account here that he was correct in 9 of 10 elections over dekades... and every time the side he didn't pick tryd so hard to disregard what he predicted because they didn't liked it... the chance to be correct in 9 of 10 cases is 0.0098 good luck gambling.
Yes...he suffers from severe TDS
The 13 Keys make sense only if you're being honest and don't have a bias towards or against one candidate. This dude literally said the economy is roaring right now - that alone killed his cred.
Exactly, they just adhere to whatever the party line is no matter what and then just passive aggressively push past it to the next thing if they're wrong.
Yeah, but a recession has not been declared. And Lichtman did in fact predict a Trump win in 2016
@@technoloverish bruh, we've been in a recession for months now. just because it wasn't declared by the lying msm doesn't mean we aren't in one rn
@@technoloverish 2024 is a different election due to the extended usage of media, so misinformation is much more prevalent now than 2016
He also said Trump was uncharismatic.
The guy who did the predictions also said that Biden was going to be a two term president.
He's not smart
@@JigSaw-m4s no he didn't... He never even gave his prediction yet.
How could he possibly know that the democrats would get scared? There are always mitigating factors. And people are so sick of Trump that Biden probably would have won anyway. Let's face it, Trump hasn't won an election since 2016. 2018 was a disaster for Trump Repbulicans and so were 2020 and 2022.
Remember he was picking Biden to beat Trump before he bowed out
That’s because with Biden they were down four keys. With Biden out they are now down five keys.
That doesn’t invalidate his keys though.
He's also picking Harris rn. Trump wont win
@@tylerk4641 way too early to predict that. Kamala hasn’t even opened her mouth yet to remind everyone why she isn’t liked. Don’t be shocked when you find out.
Yeah that was due to his keys though that he stays loyal to. Whether you or I agree with them, he does tend to be right.
And in this case I thought he was going to be wrong on this one( before he dropped out), but we don't even get a chance to see that now. Him saying his model is wrong now seems silly. Just my opinion.
Totally agree with you about Lichtman's subjective keys. I think he has been a lucky SOB in the past and these keys will soon turn into cards as his house of cards collapses.
That’s what I was saying, if the keys were so good, why did they take out Biden,,, Biden had the incumbent key now Harris doesn’t have that
No prediction system could ever be completely perfect. Dems realized Biden was hurting the party image... that's all that mattered. Fear set in amongst other candidates that need the party to be strong in order for them to win their next election so the party freaked out.
@laurymc1977it’s not illegal, candidates are not forced to continue serving. It was super dishonest and underhanded though, especially the way they continue to lie and say it’s not because of his dementia
@@adanalyst6925based on the fact about 18 hours prior to them organizing this coup, he stated only if GOD comes down and tells me to or for some medical reason is the only way I would drop out of the race, he also stated yesterday as well that they forced him out, it wasn’t a matter of him not wanting to serve it was them FORCING him to be replaced because he would probably lose and someone else might not which is I believe must be illegal and if it’s not that would suck if the laws are that loose.
For the simple reason that they don’t need the incumbency key.
The Dems are still winning.
Lichtman is a fraud bc his “model” doesn’t require he quantify his predictions. He simply predicts who wins. His record is “accurate” since the ‘84 election, when Reagan won 525 EVs lmfao. I’m sure there are a few hundred thousand Americans that have the same record as Lichtman having made their predictions from an arm chair.
It’s a lot more impressive when a poll aggregator calls 49/50 states correct based on their polling models, which a number of them have.
As far as Charisma Lichtman explicitly lays out what examples of that are, Ike, Roosevelt, Kennedy, Reagan, Obama, those once in a lifetime time talent figures or national war heroes like Eisenhower (Ike). Trump doesn’t fit that category as Trump is contrastive and appeals to a narrow base. Trump doesn’t unite the nation.
He's getting paid off like the rest of them. His track record is bout to take a hit lol
Well he's about right for it seeing as how he's been right every single time so far
@@joey_rogers doesn’t matter nowadays. You can’t trust shit like this with all the liberal lies/silence to generate buzz.
It doesn't matter if Allan Lichtman hates Trump or whatever -- his track records shows his analysis is correct. You can both hate or dislike something, and be able to have an objective view on things. I know it's a difficult concept to grasp, but it's entirely possible.
Somebody ought to give Lichtman the 13 Keys to finding a better Wig.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 PLEASE! That toupee belongs in the Nixon era, where he should’ve left it, if he wasn’t such a horrible person I wouldn’t have brought it up, but he IS, trying to influence people that are uninformed, and will deserve what happens to his floppy-flop reputation and career after this cycle.
Being rude to an esteemed university professor who's correctly predicted all the elections. You're hard.
Why all the hatred ?
@@Emm325 Why all the hatred ?
@@Emm325 Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
It’s pretty scary because he’s been on point with every election prediction… he also predicted Trump in 2016
He was wrong in 2000
@@garyelder4610 soon 2024 🤞
This guy obviously doesnt know how to interpret the keys. He should first watch some of Lichtmans streams to understand the keys better.
He's never wrong keep coping.
The problem with them is some of them are subjective and not quantifible
If you think that you haven't read his book
@@guymankowski3358 so quantify “foreign policy” success
wrong, some of em are
Love him or hate him, Trump is certainly charismatic
He only appeals to one part of the country
@@AllStarPoliticsOfficial kamala to no part of the country, so what
No he isn't.
@@dustinsindledecker154if Trump doesn’t have charisma then nobody does.
I don’t know how you can claim Trump isn’t charismatic. You don’t host a reality TV show for years if you don’t have an effective screen presence.
Well, as a Trump supporter who has listened to him a lot, here's why I kinda disagree, but also agree.
Disagree with you:
Lichtman always says that the keys are often set incorrectly, because the keys require you to be 100% objective.
For example, Major policy change (7) is not based on if you like the policy, but rather on if the candidate does a lot of things, good or bad. I'd say Obama did a lot of things, despite the fact that I didn't love it.
Regarding something like social unrest, it needs to be significant, like 2020. Campus protests don't count.
The scandal key can only be turned if it's a legit scandal, like Watergate, or Clinton.
The charisma keys require a candidate to be as widely charismatic as Reagan, or Kennedy, which is why Trump doesn't qualify.
He also wrote a book on how to judge each key.
Point is, it's not just his random opinions. He's actually USUALLY incredibly objective.
Agree with you:
I do believe that the keys might be outdated, or they might just not work sometimes.
The keys don't account for the border, inflation or other economic problem like cost of housing, age, etc.
I think the keys might be broken this time because of the nature of the transition between Biden and Harris.
I'd argue that the second key goes to trump, because there was a primary contest - to such an extent that they replaced their candidate.
Look, he might end up being correct in this election, because it's going to be close, but the keys would've absolutely failed had Biden stayed in the race.
Well said. The keys can be confusing if one isn't familiar with Mr. Lichtman's work.
how can you say the keys might be outdated when they have yet to be wrong. And why should the keys account to for the border, inflation, housing, etc. when they have correctly predicted all previous elections without looking at these factors.
also you could look at any election in history, cherry pick one or two unique issues to that election, and then say "the keys might be broken because of this or that reason" so I don't think that's a very compelling reason to reject the keys
His model predicts whether the party in power retains the White House. So the fact his keys are predicting the Democrats will win doesn't change just because the candidate changes from Biden to Harris unless other factors change the keys
Glad to see you're covering this key's dude.
I know Trump is going to win.
For that vote for him.
I pray so. God save. America.
Don’t get complacent go out and vote and make sure everyone you know does as well
@@TinaLy-gf3bhKamala Harris is going to lose big time in November. Her supporters think they got it going on with her campaign, but they really don't, it's all fake and those ratings are fake as well. Remember in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was beating Donald Trump in the ratings and all the sudden he beat her in the election. Don't believe those fake ratings it's just the energize her base and try to make her supporters constituents think she have a chance!
Stop looking back 2020!!!!
@@Joshua-ch2ijKamala Harris is going to lose big time in November. Her supporters think they got it going on with her campaign, but they really don't, it's all fake and those ratings are fake as well. Remember in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was beating Donald Trump in the ratings and all the sudden he beat her in the election. Don't believe those fake ratings it's just the energize her base and try to make her supporters constituents think she have a chance!
Stop looking back 2020!!!!
I have Trump Wins. 7 to 1 - I negated Key 2, 3, 11, 12, 13 because most of those are zippo. The only key - No Third Party - I actually gifted that leans to the Dems.
@@theodoreboosalis congratulations on using your subjective opinion to make a prediction
Several of the 13 keys are based on Leichtman’s opinions opposed to being objective.
Totally
Yet those “objective keys” predicted 10 presidents correctly! And those “objective keys” predicted Trump in 2016.
Yall hating bc it doesn’t help your lord and savior trump.
Exactly!!!! his views on Harris, Biden and Trump are totally distorted.
They are based on history dude not his own bias.
@@Valerielopez2002 Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
They are not a complete joke!
True for Harris: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9 (5 keys)
False for Harris: 1, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13 (8 keys) so trump wins.
You could argue that 3 is false but I gave it to her.
No, that how the keys work
More of those keys are false!!!
You clearly don't know anything about the keys and how they are measured. The fact that you have taken Key 13 from Harris shows your own internal bias. Trump is not Reagan. He is one of the most unpopular politicians in US history. He appeals to his base; he by no means is moving nations with the spoken word. Independents are not flocking to him in mass for that reason.
I disagree.
True for Harris: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13.
False for Trump: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12.
Trump wins.
Joke? Then explain why he hasn't been wrong yet.
He's been right since 1984. Y'all are smoking.
DUUUUUUVAAAALLLLLLL.
He was wrong in 2000 when he predicted Gore, and he also predicted Trump to win the popular vote in 2016. And anyone with half a brain knew Reagan and Obama would win.
Nah, he got the 2000 election wrong.
Yeah but in years past he didnt let his own personal bias cloud his judgement.
@@jbmasongator nope he was wrong in 2000
7:34 He's polling worse than Gary Johnson did on average(GJ was 8% on average, peaking briefly at 13 in August, got 3.8%) and way worse than Ross Perot(35% polling, got 19%). RFK Jr is set to get Ralph Nader 2000 margins at best.
(5% is for final outcome, 10% is what Allan goes off in August for the prediction. It's the only key that can be predicted correctly and end up wrong due to this inherent error. Polling 5% means a final actual score quite a bit lower. Nader was polling around 4-5% and got 2.7%, I expect RFK to be just ahead of him, but behind Gary, assuming he stays in)
Major policy change? We dont even know what her policies are. She flip flops
Has nothing to do with the Vice President, the key is true, because all is required is a policy change, doesn’t even have to be a popular one, it could be one that everyone hates
@@4me2knowu2findout3 HEY ALAN! Aw, did CNN stop calling after the Biden thing?!?
Stick to your little show with your son, your bias is more obvious than your toupee…and NEITHER ARE A GOOD LOOK. End of story!!!!!!
@@Emm325
You are displaying cognitive dissonance
@@007MJFan Trump flip flops all the fricken time too. For example on Kamala herself. He had no problem donating to her California campaign.
@@Emm325 The key is based on major policy, FDR new deal and Obama the Affordable Care Act. Trumps major achievement was the Covid vaccine but republicans dislike vaccines so it doesnt really apply to him.
Short term/long term economy is good?? No.
Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
Some of the keys are opinionated. The economy isn’t good and hasn’t been good. There is social unrest, the candidate had an attempted assassination.
The economy isn’t in a recession and an attempted assassination isn’t social unrest like the likes of 1968 or 2020
@@PremierCCGuyMMXVI inflation reports were just posted today that we are on the brink of a recession and yeah.. no social unrest, you gotta be crazy. This election is provoking social unrest and our country has been through some crazy things the past 4 years. The keys are opinionated and he claims 4 keys have fallen but you could argue 2-3 more of the keys either way.
You need to understand the keys before writing such comments. As he says, if you want to develop your own system to predict the results, go right ahead, but if you're going to use his system, you can't change the definitions. He explains ose keys as follows:
"Strong short-term economy - No recession in the election year. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the organisation of experts who decide whether there is a recession. An independent definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth."
"Strong long-term economy - Purely mathematical. It asks whether, per capita, real economic growth in the term at least equals or exceeds the average of the previous two terms. Real growth means it’s adjusted for inflation."
"No social unrest - This can’t be sporadic protests. It has to be massive protests or unrest like we saw in the 1960s or during the Black Lives Matter movement, where millions of people were out on the streets. There’s a lot of violence, deaths. One of the hallmarks of social unrest in the 1960s was the explosion of violence and protest at the Democratic Convention in Chicago."
@@erikzoe1 I understand the economy, to say we haven’t had social unrest is ridiculous, as there has been scandals at the White House as well, missing cocaine, Joe Biden has Alzheimer’s or has obviously been in mental decline.
And how we left Afghanistan and all the unrest with have with foreign countries. I just think it’s a lot closer than a lot of people make it seem. These 13 keys may favor Kamela but not by much and in my opinion, it’s still based on one key.. I hope Trump wins personally, Kamela and the democrats are crazy and how they choose to spend our tax money is disgraceful.
Trump will lose. In fact, he’s very likely dropping out before the race ends. I’d wager cash on that bet👏💙💙💙💙
I doubt very much that he'll drop out, but I agree that he'll probably lose. I certainly hope so.
TRUMP 2024
Not going to happen dream on
@@sherbearpatson884 hehe a never trumper lingering on enemy grounds
@@icecycles859 I like intelligent people , trump lacks that unfortunately
@@sherbearpatson884 it takes an intelligent person to identify a greater intelligent person, are you certain you see a lack there of or a lack of your own capability to detect greater intelligence
@@icecycles859 trick question you sound smart , I just go with common sense I like deep intellect
Personally, I think Lichtman should do the smart thing and not apply his model to this election because of the unprecedented situation. The primary winner (Biden) dropped out and was replaced with a totally unknown commodity. If he makes a prediction and he's wrong, he's going to regret it. I would love to see him be wrong just because Im sick of hearing about him.
He has mentioned in other videos that there have been a few other unprecedented elections yet his keys stood the test of time. He said the keys work in all situations. Also, Harris is not totally Unknown. She is VP.
@@Valerielopez2002 Strongly disagree. Lichtman's model has only been applied "in real time" to elections since Reagan, none of those had any remarkable situations, like the swapping of a nominee AFTER the primaries. When Lichtman applies his model "retroactively" to elections that predate his model, he is interpreting the keys with all the benefits of history's hindsights. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
@@underwaterlevelz1947 Oh I see your perspective. I also her that, after 2016, he changed his model from popular vote to electorate vote (or vice versa, i cant remember). Plus this guys views of trump, harris and biden are greatly distorted.
@Valerielopez2002 This is the most stressful election of my life. I'm only 22 bro. I hope Trump wins but if he doesnt? Well im still gonna have to go to work in the morning.😂😂😂😂
@@underwaterlevelz1947 Thats a great point.
This definitely will not age well, coming from a pro Trump supporter.
I will say this again and again maybe some will learn
There are 3 types of voters
1) Straight voters: will vote one way no matter what either Republican or Democrat there is no chance in Hell they will change their mind
2) The IT/Hipster/Cool voter: This voter is basically like high schooler voting for class president
Basically they are going to vote on who think is cool
Examples Lincoln grows a beard, got him votes ( research it)
Bill Clinton was young and hip, & play the Saxophone so the image was he was laid back cool dude
Obama we finally get black man president yay
That would describe voter 2
Last and the hardest voter to win over
3) How have I’ve been doing in the last 4 yrs
If this voter is struggling to make ends meet the current political party will generally not receive a vote from this voter/ However if they are doing find, they are not struggling to make end meets the current political party in White House will generally receive the voter vote
As much as I don't like the guy, his track record speaks for itself.
Yeah I don't trust the guy. I think a lot of these guys got some of kind of insider information. Just like he said biden would win 2020 but everyone knows (who pays attention) that he did not win. "Oh but look at his track record" yeah if the elections rigged and you know that of course you'll get it right.
I pray Trump will win. If we loose. Trump. Our country become communist. 😢😢
You don't even know what communism is
@@dustinsindledecker154 i lived in communist country. I know what it is like.
tell me, how will USA become a communist country if Kamala gets elected?
@@TinaLy-gf3bh then tell me what communism is
@@TinaLy-gf3bhWhere did you live before?
You think there's a strong long-term economy? Our economy is weak and heading for serious trouble.
Make sure you do your research on every key. The Long-Term key isn't subjective, it's only math. Real GDP per capita has equaled or gone up compared to the two previous terms. That is the only criteria, so it would be true.
@@owen_mania Even if that's the case, speak to anyone on the street and they'll tell you that they're struggling to buy groceries and pay their bills. My wife and I both have great jobs and we're still having to cut back on any unnecessary expenses. I'm not sure if the GDP growth will favor Democrats in this case.
@@sergeantkitty I mean there is the argument for perception of the economy over tangible results, but Lichtman has always crusaded against it in all the elections he has covered, and he has turned out to be correct.
@@owen_maniahe's been wrong several times
@@jayrittel5231 Which elections? Only one was 2000, where Gore won the popular vote and the Supreme Court stopped counting ballots prematurely.
incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal ..." they had to replace FJB bc he looked sooo slow on that june debate" LOOOOL
That's what a good team does, replace their downed man. We have a bench. Y'all don't. The real question is: what's Y'ALL next move?
Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
@@Salty_Knuckles Yep, it shows a healthy and active party that is able to adapt. It was also the vast will of the people, with people generally believing both Biden and Trump are too old.
He is biased andgives the keys for his pick.
There are four third party candidates and RFK is the most "right" leaning of them, i wouldn't give it to the dems
I agree a lot of these are subjective, but with Charismatic Candidate he specifically said it was people viewed as charismatic and special by EVERYONE on both sides. (Specifically citing FDR and Reagan who won in massive record sized landslides and were basically the foundation of an entire era of the party system and dominated their own parties dogma for decades).
So Harris and Trump can't qualify, neither of them. The right doesn't view Harris as charismatic and awesome and the left doesn't view Trump as charismatic and awesome. This one is a rare key to flip and it tends to result in landslides or at least near-landslides(Obama 2008 was the last to flip it, Obama 2012 failed it as by that point he had too much hate from the right and too much doubt within)
Holy shit. This was a good comment.
I'm not surprised no one commented on this
Read his book. He's saying to turn the charisma key you need once in a generation unifying charisma like Kennedy.
@@guymankowski3358That’s not Kamala.
He lost me when he said the Afghanistan withdrawal was not a major foreign policy failure
It was too long ago
@@kbkilla360 It was the turning point where Joe Biden's approval sank
It wasn't. Most Americans wanted out of Afghanistan.
@@Guy-cb1oh tell that to Joe's approval rating right after
@@Guy-cb1oh Americans wanted out, but not in the manner that the Biden administration pulled out the troops. Highly disorganized, made America look weak and we lost 12 soldiers.
How the hell can you think Trump isn’t charismatic?? An extremely biased question like that voids all credibility. 😂
If Trump isn't charismatic then what is Harris?
@@EaglePickinghe doesn't give Harris the charismatic incumbent key tho, he's just saying trump doesn't get it either 😂
Trump isn't charismatic. By definition, charisma is the ability to inspire devotion. How is demanding loyalty through fear tactics and gaslighting charismatic? Would love for someone to tell me why I'm wrong, because I despise Harris.
@@barrywagoner5191 that is such a biased take. Do you know how much he’s impacting millions of people when you don’t look at it from the lens of opposition?
@@Rodkicks88 the key is about charisma for both sides. Reagan is an example of an extremely charismatic president so was FDR and Roosevelt. Obama kinda is close put nowhere near those 2 trump is very charismatic to his own voter base not to the other side
I believe in the keys. He said Trump would win in 2016.
I'm starting to wonder if guys like him got a little inside baseball. Just like he predicted Joe would win but we all know Joe cheated just with how the numbers make no logical sense and that's just on the surface.
He didnt say that trump would win the popular vote. Please fact check yourself
Republicans have won the popular vote once out of the last 10 elections
the keys are mostly subjective as you state. easy for Lichtman to turn if his keys arent correct. i would say #1, #3,#4,#6,#8,#10,#11 and #13 are false. 8 for Trump. I could easily debate Lichtman on his positions.
According to Lichtman, to properly forcast with the 13 keys, you have to leave your own politics out of it.
The social unrest key has a very high threshold to turn, which has only recently happened in 2020 with the George Floyd protests. There was massive social unrest that disrupted the social order. The Israel and Palestine protests have not (at least not yet) gotten to the level of turning the key false.
The no scandal key involves no direct scandal involving the president. The president having a bad debate and being pressured to step aside is not a scandal. A scandal, for example, is something like impeachment. For those arguing that the Hunter Biden case counts as scandal, it does not since it does not directly attack the president.
Lastly, in terms of charisma, think about it this way. Reagan and FDR were considered charismatic in this model. One thing that one would see was a great deal of Reagan democrats. Are there a great deal of Trump democrats? Trump, while exciting and entertaining only really appeals to his narrow base of voters.
In 2016 when Lichtman predicted Trump would win, he kept his own politics out of it.
While the bias is always there, using the guidelines Lichtman set up is how one can use this model. While it may not seem perfect, it did predict all elections it was implemented on, except for one. One may not like it, but this method has demonstrated more forecasting merit than anything else I have seen so far.
@@jeffreym2361 The one that was off. Granted the election was extremely close and controversial, but other than that, the model has predicted the president correctly. Only time will tell what could break the keys more and how Lichtman could improve him model, but for now, it is the best we have.
Social Unrest has to be daily and for months at a time with violence involved. Read the book.
This dude isn’t coping well with the Keys being in Kamala’s favor 😂
This dude was on TYT like 2 days before Biden was forced out of the race saying Biden was sure to win 🤣
He never said those words.
@@dustinsindledecker154 absolutely he did
He said he always makes his predictions after the DNC convention. But he did say that and gets a key because he’s an incumbent.
He said he was on track to win. According to the model, with Biden they were down four keys, but with Harris in as nominee they’re down five. So the fact that the dens forced him out they decreased the margin to win
@@KrunkDiddelyUmptiousbro. No.
He has been so over the top making sure people realize he has not made a prediction yet.
I made a comment to a girl a few comments up, you should read it. It's basically about wanting to believe things and dieing with it because you WANT to believe it, instead of when you find out you're wrong, you say "Oh shit, I guess I was mistaken". It's not the end ofnthe world.
The only problem is, people used to adjust their opinions given new information. That doesn't really happen anymore. People now feel like they have to hold their opinions no matter what they find out because they are so attached to them.
His 13 keys are as believable as his hairpiece
@@cheneree what are you talking about trump is the one with the hair piece
Is that a thing? Being a trump supporter and not liking the 13 keys?
If so, I didn't even know that and it's pretty interesting.
I'll admit part of this comment is a reaction to the guy that responded to your thread.
Have some respect. He's an esteemed professor who correctly predicted all outcomes in modern history.
Arguing Trump isn't charismatic is wild. You don't have to like him to know he is.
He's charismatic in the way a used car salesman is.
@Guy-cb1oh This is the thing. People like you are so predetermined to hate him that no matter what is said about him, no matter what comparison is made, it has to be negative on some way for you to feel vindicated. God forbid you make an impartial assessment or go 5 seconds without showing your bias. Turn off the phone once in a while, read a book. It's nice.
@@T-Sharp I'm not giving Trump hell. I'm telling the Truth about him and you think it's hell.
@@Guy-cb1oh No, you're just buying into whatever you were told to think. There isn't substance behind your opinion. If there were, you wouldn't go around with stupid ass quips like that reflects an actual opinion.
@@T-Sharp you are buying into whatever Trump tells you to think.
So what Lichtmans list is saying is he got down to point 13 and decided “Trumps not charismatic because if I say he is then he’ll reach 6 points and win with my model” lol shameless
In order to win that key, you must appeal to both parties. I don't see any Democrats for Trump. Trump only appeals to a very slim slice of the electorate.
@@LorrinOfficial There's nothing in that key that says they need to appeal to both parties. He's obviously charismatic and a national hero. This entire key is a joke.
@@Tony-hn8qyits in his book, he's also been explaining his system since he wrote the original paper in 1981 when he predicted reagan's win 3 years ahead of the election. it's not exactly hidden knowledge
Not to mention “HIS” keys are ripped off of another, prior study, I went into a rabbit hole of research a week ago after seeing his INSANELY LIB BIAS, he’s as crooked as a four dollar bill (and a toupee from the 70’s)
@@Tony-hn8qy So you're criticizing the keys for being "opinionated" yet you believe the man with a ~35% approval rating during the final months of his presidency is a national hero? What a joke.
Also, Lichtman has stated multiple times on his livestreams that you must be broadly liked by both sides of the electorate in order to flip the key.
If these keys were valid, there would be no necessity to vote.
Wtf lol.
The idea of the keys is guessing how people will vote.
Good Lord I will be so happy when Trump is gone, he has dumb down our society so much these past 9 years
What ? You want to throw out the Constitution ?
@@dionysus2006 No, I want to question the validity of the 13 keys.
@@saschagrusche8449 The only evidence they have that they are valid is they predicted the presidential election correctly in 9 out of the last 10 elections. The only one they missed was Gore and that was decided by the Supreme Court not allowing another recount in Florida that Bush won by 500 votes (remember hanging chads?)
@@saschagrusche8449 And how does a comment like that question the validity of the 13 keys?
You really don't understand the keys
The 13 Keys have worked for years, and he won't make his final call till after the Democratic Convention.
His keys will not fit the lock.
Can you prove this?
@@dustinsindledecker154 Yes because most are bogus anyway.
@@roybell8470can you prove they are bogus?
My guess is he’s leaning left based of emotions right now. But once his final decision is made he’ll try to be more unbiased and he might pick trump then.
I predict👆As the election nears, Lichtman will bite the bullet and predict a Trump win because even if he personally wants a Harris win, he doesn’t want to be wrong!
That dudes toupee is ridiculous. Hard for me to take him serious when he thinks like no one notices the dead animal on his head.
Why all the hatred? He is a 77 year old man. My advice to you is to not grow old.
Fortunately, enough secretaries of state are Democrats in the swing states -- AZ, WI, MI, PA, NV. They'll be able to give it to Harris if trump tries to steal.
Blah blah blah…Kamala/Walz is going to win! 💙
Yup, his official prediction is soon.
He favors the democrat party and clearly shows it. That right there is bias and a red flag. If he were credible, he wouldn't be for any one candidate. Instead, he chooses to be partisan. Not a good look.
Well Ginger is biased and he still keeps on predicting Trump will win. Not a good look.
@@dustinsindledecker154he was fair in this video. Did you even see it?
@@bg_d6921 no, he wasnt
@@dustinsindledecker154 yes he was. While I don’t disrespect the model, Allan is biased and is an anti-Trump guy, you cannot deny that. How can we trust a partisan guy who said Biden would win by a mile? He was correct in the past because he wasn’t against a candidate. Now he is, and it’s against Trump, so imo, it would be hard to believe him.
He was one of the few to predict Trump’s victory in 2016. He puts his bias aside when he makes these predictions.
No scandal key: A financial scandal counts which connects directly to the incumbent president. Not his son. His dementia is not considered as scandal.
Are you talking about Trump?
Biden left classified documents out when he was a senator and an appointed prosecutor found him guilty but said he was too braindead to stand trial. That’s a scandal.
@@dustinsindledecker154 This is the scandal key. This is about the WH incumbent, in this case Biden.
@@dustinsindledecker154 🤡
Bro, more of those keys are false!!!
None of this guy’s (with a wig on) TARA CARDS have anything to do with putting food on the table issues 🙄
Now south FL tv stations are saying Florida starting to go blue. LOL. The media is trying to elect her themselves.
The media is not electing her. Trump is electing her by continuing to self destruct
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Florida will go Trump +10.
if Florida goes blue they need to state a revolution in their own state
Florida going blue?! HA! HA! HA! The media will be going blue, holding their breath, waiting on that to happen.
He got 2016 right when everyone said Clinton would win. Edit you have not done your research.
You break his record of accuracy, unti then you can be quiet!💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙💙
Wahaha you’re spreading misinformation and using Allan Licthman name. You are far different to the Professor
Desperate for views huh? Pity
He was supposed to make a finale prediction after the DNC, but still hasn’t yet. 😂
That’s because the DNC has not started yet.
Because the DNC hasn't happened yet...
He said after Labor Day which I am pretty sure is after the DNC
He is waiting to see if Ukraine's invasion of Russia flips the major military accomplishment key
Many of his Keys are subjective.
Where’s the Key for surviving an assassination attempt in the most badass way in history? 😅
Such a crappy system😅
But still he was always right
hahaha yeah we should definitely use your system, just give it to the guy who looks the most "badass" at a particular moment in time. Im sure that would work flawlessly over the history of all presidential elections 😂
Are you high. Professor Lichtman is remarkable. You obviously have zero understanding of the keys.
You need to read the book. You’re analyzing it incorrectly and must be more objective.
Well, It is baste on opinions,
but unfortunately on the opinions of the media…
According to my count: Trump holds 10 keys
Joe, is Discount Divorce Photography a real company? I can believe that stressed out and depressed people would want photographs that make them look better, maybe feel better about the future. Hot photos for dating websites?
How if he is back in the White house Iran will pay the price
Economy - inflation, debased fiat currency, car companies in trouble, banks in trouble. huge out of control debt.
This guy obviously didn’t read Allan Lichtman’s book, The Keys to the White House.
It's the most reliable method of predictions of elections I've ever seen
The guys "keys" are as legit as the hair on his head! 😂
I have a theory that every election, at least since JFK, has boiled down to who was the most charismatic candidate. With one exception and that is 2020. I think that was just because of COVID and how everyone was unhappy.
Whats more ridiculous? The "13 keys" or the guy's Justin Bieber hair?
Why do you have so much hatred in your heart ?
@@dionysus2006 "hatred" lol. Paper is thicker than your skin. Eff your feelings.
I don’t think Lichtman’s system is entirely accurate but he has predicted 9 out of the last 10 elections with this system. I believe he understands these keys the best.
The Beatles called.. they want there hair back 😅
I hadn’t thought of it but that guy definitely has a toupee
Wow! MAGA jokes are so lame.
@adanalyst6925 lol is it? Probably eh? It's a beauty for sure. Rugsly
@@dustinsindledecker154Wow, you have over 100+ comments on this guy's channel. How sad you must be.
If you watch the prof’s interview he goes in depth with multiple facts and resources where he gets the answers from. None of it is opinion. He chose trump in 2016 also
It’s like the folks saying if the Chicago bears win a certain game that means this presidential candidate will win
Allan Lichtman DID NOT make his prediction yet- get your facts straight.
A friend of mine, grandmother has chosen who would win for the past 70 yrs, and hasn’t been wrong. She is saying that Trump will win
Do you have Facebook or instagram? I would love to touch base with you after the election and see if she is still right.
I'm going to guess now. God forbid your mamaw is wrong 🤷♂️
How does she determine this?
Your grandmother?? Lol
@@3227phoenix I have no idea but when we all thought that Trump would win the last time, she told us that he would not
@@sjhbartlet nope both of my grandmothers has past
Litchman holds the clown key
So it's a thing to dislike someone because they disagree with who you think will be president?
I'm quickly learning Trump people don't like this guy, it's super weird bro
@joey_rogers because he's clearly biased towards the left and many of these keys are opinionated. It's not that deep
What all the hatred ?
@@bglassman08 really cause he predicted bush and trump would win.
@@3227phoenix and he still got a prediction wrong. His prediction will not determine the election, and he's clearly gonna pick Kamala because he's pandered his content to leftists
Trump ❤🎉2024
By my count, and I'm trying to be as unbiased as humanly possible, I count 9 keys for Trump, 2 for Harris and 2 that are undecided.
K4 - 3rd and 4th party candidates are definitely effecting the race - in Trumps favor.
K5 & K6 go to Trump as everyone has doubt about the current and future economy.
Thanks, I can sleep a little better now.
You dont have a good understanding of how the keys are issued. Theres too much misunderstandings here to comment kn all of them. Maybe do more research first. Also remember, Lichtman predicted Trump in 2016. Hes a democrat but his track record has been spot on
I agree. The lack of research and lack of academic understanding of Lichtman's methodology here is embarrassing. I'm going to take a wild guess that the depressed ginger doesn't even have a research masters.
Yes. He is a Democrat and pro-Harris (i.m.o. rightly so), but his prediction system is completely non-partisan.
7 elections, with half of them being easy to predict (we all knew Clinton was winning in '96 and Obama in '08). He was wrong about the closest election (2000). Not a huge sample size to call the predictive power of these keys impressive
@@ricky129rl4263 He was not wrong about 2000. It has been proven that 2000 was a stolen election due to voter suppression in Florida, and Al Gore was the rightful winner of Florida which would have given him the electoral vote.
ruclips.net/video/D57mZejswkI/видео.html
Also, the keys were developed by studying the history of elections right the way back to the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860, so they have been right for 160 years of elections. That is a huge sample.
Obviously it is a prediction, not a guarantee, but the keys have been right since 1860.
Alan record is coming to a END
Unless he actually predicts Trump as the victor.
Have you actually listened to lichman talk? It's easy to always get a prediction "right" when your prediction is so unclear and ambitious that you actually are predicting both sides to win...also many of the keys are subjective and up to opinion
We’ll see. I wonder if Allan’s bias against trump flaws the keys in any way this year
Yet you guys are biased too
@@dustinsindledecker154Allan predicted Trump for 2016. He tried to be very neutral with this stuff
Just for starts, Lichtman never predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 🤡
He simply predicted a Trump victory
Also, you mispronounced his name
I can't stand that guy, God help us we need Trump to win.
Here's how....Dont mail your mail in ballots. Bring it the poll center unopened. Fill it in there n drop it yourself in the election box. Guard your votes...TRUMP47 ! Lets do this !!!
I would say 1-2 true keys: 13 (not an exceptionally charismatic challenger), and assuming no contest at the convention, 2.
A useful way to think of the keys: Will it shift 1% of voters from incumbency to challenger party? Or, will it shift 2% of voters from incumbency party to 3rd party or not vote?
Here's my explanation for the keys that differ from the video:
7 Major policy- do independents largely know what this would be? Have voters experienced this change firsthand. Think: Is there any policy change that could motivate 1-2% to vote for the incumbent party?
5&6 Economy- I prefer to think in terms of what voters care and feel the most on: real income (vs. economic productivity). Would 2-4% of swingable voters turn against the incumbent party based on the economy?
4 Third party- Let's say about 50% of third party votes take away from a party, and 50% are new voters who otherwise wouldn't have voted. Would it seem plausible that 2% (not 1% because these people wouldn't go from D to R or vice versa, but from D/R to neither) of main party voters feel dissatisfied enough to vote 3rd party?
If you assume each key = 2% shift in vote total between the two parties and 6 false keys = Dem +2 national popular vote, then 11 false keys = Trump +8 nationally.
Can't wait to come back to this video when Harris wins. 😄😄😄
He hasn't made his prediction yet