Don't freeze forecasts!

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  • Опубликовано: 12 сен 2024
  • Never freeze forecasts!
    It's not because you have a frozen production plan that you should freeze your forecasts.
    In short, forecasts are just pieces of information.
    Freezing them is like refusing to take your temperature today because your doctor's appointment is tomorrow.
    It makes no sense.
    Let's say your production plan is frozen for the next three weeks.
    Is there any value in updating your week +1 or +2 forecast?
    Yes!
    Because if you change your w+1 or w+2 forecast, this will impact how much you should plan to produce in w+3 to reach your stock targets. (As your expected stock in w+3 is impacted by your w+1/+2 forecast).
    The same is true if you need to make supply orders 4 months in advance to an overseas supplier.
    In short, there is no reason to freeze forecasts.
    ---
    If you like this type of content, I think you might enjoy 4 free chapters of my latest book: 'Demand Forecasting Best Practices.'
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Комментарии • 1

  • @Terracotta-warriors_Sea
    @Terracotta-warriors_Sea Месяц назад

    Nicholas that’s a good advice! I saw that you wrote an article on How to Forecast Intermediate Demand on medium but it’s behind the paywall! 😢