Hi everyone, Small update, since I recorded the video, the Danube River ports have been targetted, further isolating Ukraine economically. This is line withngs that would happen that I mention in the 3rd scenario. Cheers, Hugo
Hilarious how you blame "Soviet Bureaucracy" while ignoring the fact that Ukraine was and still is the most corrupt country in Europe. Zelensky is in fact the center piece of the Pandora Papers. Zelensky is the living embodiment of a corrupt politician, but somehow you forgot to mention that.
@@JelMainBS. The ports targeted are in Ukraine controlled territory. Only response will be further security beefup in MD & RO. Same as when the missile hit Polish territory and 2 farmers died as a result in Poland.
@@linkme2dnet Nonsense. It's piracy, plain pure and simple, as is Russia's attempt to monopolise the entire Black Sea, itself an attack on the territorial waters of three NATO members. Ukraine is free to ship its wheat where it will, overland to Poland, if you like: the problem is that it massively increases the shipping expense to Africa. The missile was Ukrainian, an accident Poland has tolerated. But at the same time, one cannot forget Russia's attack on an American drone, and the three GRU attacks in the UK, the organised interference with democracy (which involved me personally, I should add, although it's simply more of a lifetime's focus on that pitiful excuse for a nation) and decades of enmity and abuse of many other nations. Pressure is building inside NATO for a less passive response.
The Black Sea does not belong to Russia, so Moscow has no rights over any it anyway. Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine (which includes Crimea and the Azov region), and Georgia have their rights to their parts of the Black Sea. Russia's Black Sea naval fleet has so got to go. Liquidate it if we must.
this is the only 'silver lining' to the war frankly speaking. Yes there was widespread corruption in Ukraine before the war but what people dont realise is that this was *because* oligarchs had very close ties to the Kremlin / Siloviki etc. putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter for F-sake! The Yanukovich government had to go. It's extremely difficult for Ukraine to modernise with such insidious Kremlin / russian influence in everything
Dude, Ukraine and corruption are synonymous words, at best they would have introduced "lobbying" instead of corruption, which would not have changed the picture much
bra, your comment lacks significant context. Yes there was widespread corruption in Ukraine before the war but you need to realise that this was because oligarchs had very close ties to the Kremlin / Siloviki etc or were russian themselves. putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter for F-sake! The Yanukovich government had to go. Ukraine had 80 years of Communism/ Stalinism / Leninism and before 1917 (the year there was a Ukrainian attempt at independence - btw the map of Ukraine pre-1917 includes part of russia and was drawn and recognised by Dutch traders in the 17th Century. Can tell this next time a russian tries to come up with some BS about border changes by Lenin), they had two centuries of russian empire expansion and brutal aggression. Then consider the complete banning of Ukrainian language and culture throughout the entire 18th and 19th centuries, the active washing of Ukrainian history by Catherine the Great & Alexander II, and the execution of 100,000 Ukrainian intelligencia during the cold war. Oh, and the death of 10.5m Ukrainians from 3 famines deliberated caused by the Soviets - see Hoover Institute lecture on the subject - ruclips.net/video/3E9IrWqWewU/видео.html Now, you try to overhaul a country with such constant, long running, and insidious influence and adversity see how easy it is! People really need to give the Ukrainians credit where credit is due! They will accomplish the task but its painful, involves a lot of suffering, and it deserves everyone's support!
I think people really underestimate what an aging, declining population means for an economy, life expectancy and future outcomes. Without more young people to work/pay the pensions/healthcare of an ever increasing older population, fill increasing job vacancies, consume, and increase demand in the economy, you face socio-economic collapse. Russia, China and even large parts of western europe face a similar outcome. All the best to Ukraine.
Ukrainians should have concentrated on making babies. But in the modern world child-bearing and child-rearing are considered boring, old-fashioned and bad for the Planet.
@@MrToradragon Yeah, hopefully Ukraine would experience a baby boom with 2 children or 3 children per Ukrainian woman ideally like Israel's fertility rate. A booming, young Ukrainian population would be great overall.
The trend is the same everywhere but Africa, but it happens at different speeds in different places. The west may be declining soon but only slow, and it's easily the richest region of the world and thus will be best positioned to deal with it. Just how it is. Literally everyone else will get it much, much worse.
China is different because of their huge investments in AI and robotics. Their government predicted that the population will fall in the future because of lifestyle changing of the Chinese and onechild policy.
As a Ukrainian, I would say government incompetence (corruption) and demographics are the two greatest challenges in the Ukrainian post-war recovery. So far, I don't feel any optimistic about neither of those.
@@JelMain The EU is not perfect, it has all sorts of flaws. But it's one of the least corrupt parts of the world. Most of the top countries in the world for tackling corruption are in the EU.
Once the war is over, hopefully the demographic problems will be helped by immigration to Ukraine. The corruption is a huge issue but I think Ukraine as a country is more united than ever before as a people and there is the political will to tackle corruption. The war will provide the shock to the system that will allow corruption to be tackled.
@@ster2600 I've spent twenty years in Brussels face to face with the real thing. It's not presented a clean set of accounts since soon after it was formed - I was Head of Finance of WEU for half that time. It is loathed by the locals, and renowned for its sloth - they tell the tale of a local admiring the huge buildings and asking how many people work there - the reply's about ten. When they took on the Foreign and Security Policy Portfolio from us, they gave themselves three years to accomplish what took us three months to set up, a functional Military HQ, but hadn't accomplished it in ten. Eventually Cameron pulled the plug. The problem's that our Council focused on the job of keeping Europe safe. Theirs has taken on too much, and the defence portfolio is way down the list behind rabbit-farming in San Remo. The essence of good soldiering is speed, a word missing from their vocabulary. Indeed, their President, Ursula van der Leyen, was nominated to get rid of her from German politics after she fouled up her role of Defence Minister so seriously she left the army without boots for five years. When Ukraine blew up, it was discovered that was simply the tip of the iceberg, where everyone else has given Ukraine kit which would otherwise have gone to the scrap yard (but was still far better than what the Russians have, so it was adequate for the purpose) Germany's sent it's 50 year old Leopard 2s, with nothing better to replace them with. This is why they have no voice in the matter, they simply don't know their subject.
As a Ukrainian born in currently occupied territory I can confirm it is one of the most detailed and well thought through videos on this topic I have seen so far. The major challenges Ukrainian post-war economy will face are described in a pretty realistic and balanced manner. Not too much optimism nor pessimism. One can see a lot of open-source research has been done before making this video. Thank you so much for your work and keep it up!
@@RandomGuy-qg9xf absolutely agree. Demographically, both for Ukraine and Russia, it is the worst time ever to throw the little amount of young people we have into the furnace of war.
One of the sad things for me as an architect is realising that a lot of the reconstruction will be fast and chaotic, prioritising fast growth, bulk and making Investors and politicians happy- this will mean that quality, traditional methods of construction and new urbanism will be set aside- even though so much soviet architecture has been destroyed, it will be replaced by contemporary project which are not that different.
@@daydays12 convincing the people in power that it is worth it to create good quality urban spaces. Educating the public and see if people rally or not around this issue.
There is another factor to consider: who will rebuild Ukraine an for who will it be rebuilt? The country was already among those in a very bad place demographically, having inherited nearly off the same issues as russia has through the ussr. Add in the economic hit from the war discussed here to the tendency for a portion of refugees to end up putting down roots wherever they went to and to not come back, and how those refugees tend to be younger and women increasing the relative demographic hit from whatever number don't come back compared to if it were a more even distribution, and you have quite a hard situation for a country to recover from.
Demographically Ukraine not so bad. Ukraine mean age of first birth was 22 years in 1993, now it 27 years, so real fertility rate was 1,5 children per women not 1,2 (from 1993 to 2023). As mean age of first birth growing and will be 32 years old in 2050, so real fertility rate will be 1,5 before 2050, but per year fertility rate will be 1,2. So population decline will be fast but family structure will be not so bad. Real fertliity rate in Ukraine now for women who is 40 years old. Childless-7%, 1 child-50%, 2 children-37%, 3 and more children - 7%.
98% of houses belongs to families so majority of young couples inherited houses from grandparents in age about 30 years old. As they have no need in buying or renting house, they use money on local services. Typical Ukranian person in age 33 years old married with 1 or 2 children and inherited flat in city and house in village.
@@KennyNGABiggest reason for lower life expectancy is that older Ukrainians is overweight. So in Ukraine there are much lower number of people 70 and more years old compared with West Europe or East Asia. So for person of age 33 years old it very uncommon have grandparents.
@@KennyNGABefore war mortality rate for person younger than 40 years old was almost at the same level with West Europe. So Ukraine population decline fast and will be about 17 millions in 2100, but the proportion of childless lonely old people in Ukraine will be much lower compared with West Europe or East Asia.
I am from Ukraine, and I have been following your videos since the creation of your channel. Thank you, Hugo, for delving into this particular topic. I firmly believe it holds as much significance as the results on the battlefield itself. Here's hoping for the most optimistic scenario to come to life! 🤞
Greetings from Croatia! Our last war ended 28 years ago, we've been a member of the EU for 10 years, NATO for 15 years, we are even in the Schengen area... Croatia took less damage in four years of fighting than Ukraine did in two and we're still not done with rebuilding! There are minefields and people still die (or get injured). Hatred towards other ethnic groups is still present. There are missing war victims whose graves are not known. Ex-soldiers still recieve pensions and benefits draining the budget funds. Society never fully mentally recovered from war (us vs them) mentality. However most people do believe it was worth it since we didn't have much choice and had to defend our independence. Ukraine has massive support of the West so I hope your recovery will be much faster
Still, I believe that the recovery of Croatia is a success story. You're a respected member of the EU, and your economy is growing despite the tourism crash during the pandemic. Recovery is an ongoing process, but if Ukraine is on the same trajectory as Croatia it would definitely not be the worst case scenario. Though of course I hope Ukraine gets a total victory that includes lots of war reparations and border recognition.
@@MeeesterBond17 Don't worry Dalmatian coast is clear of mines, problematic areas are in the interior along the border with Bosnia. I hope you have a great holiday :)
@@zeNoldor If only you had a President that actually LOVED his country instead of complaining he wasn't allowed at the grammys!!!! He is responsable for this mess and unless and until Ukrainians have the honesty within themselves to admit they were duped by Zelensky and tricked in fighting a war NO UKRAINIAN want, this conflict can go for quite a while! How many young men were sent to the battlefield that didn't even want to fight?!
The main resource Ukraine has lost that will never come back is all the people who have moved to the rest of Europe. When the war is over, the men will join their families in the EU countries. The war has lasted so long that the children have gotten used to the new countries they live in. They have a better life there, and they will not move back.
True. The kids will have been in school for years and the parents (mothers) will have jobs that earn a multiple of what they could get in Ukraine which, moreover, is largely destroyed... Old people may or may not return, but the young will stay in EU, for sure.
@@der110 This is true. It is uncomfortable to admit that most of the immigration from Ukraine is mostly beneficial to the host-countries, but detrimental to Ukraine long-term. On the other hand, forcing children from immigrants to move back can be as world-shattering for the individual families as the forced evacuation caused by the war. European countries should lay a path for families to transition back to Ukraine if they wish. But this will not be an easy issue.
No one did it to japan. Japan is the nation that in 30 40went to be closed to becoming modernized and defeating Russia and becoming a great power. Same for Germany. Even then some things can’t be rebuilt nazis destroyed german(prussian) university’s 70 year later still german university’s have not recovered to global rankings.
Very interesting analysis, People in Ukraine hope that the worst is over only for things to get worse, just like Odesa which has been hit very very hard lately, destroying ukraines remaining port infrastructure.
Hi, I think more significant still is the strikes on Reni, in the Romanian border. Odessa was already virtually useless since the war broke out. Those Danube River ports essentially were a lifeline to Ukraine, since they still had access to their trains (which have different gauges than in the West). Thanks for the kind words :) Cheers, Hugo
This brings us to the 4th scenario, the one signalled by col Macgregor, if the war is prolonged: Russia reaching the border with Romania and Ukraine becomes a landlocked country.
@@mike42356yep. Nightmare situation for Erdoğan as much as him and Putin have been pragmatic in their various conflicts across the world this would be the straw that breaks the camels back.
@@joeylopez7978No one is saying anything about that. Ofcourse that Russians are gonna payback. Original comment just said that Odessa has been hit hard, not finding any excuses.....
Somehow Germany survived after WW2, somehow Poland rose from the ashes, somehow all of Europe was rebuilt, stay strong Dear Ukraine, we all pray for you
Germany was rebuilt by US, Poland was rebuilt by USSR (now they hate us), any other devastated country was rebuilt by some major power. No one needs strong Ukraine, the West only wants to destroy Russia
@@fitgirl8812 Russia is nice country before it got captured but the dictators putin/stalin/lenin since then this country is a 3 d world shit that terrorizes its own people and invades countries, weak country which wanna be USA but can't reach it and will never reach it cause weak as fuck and all it can do just threat smaller countries 😂
Unlike Korea or Japan, Ukraine's on a land border next to Western Europe. A lot of talented people in tech who speaks english. I believe Ukraine can bounce back. If Successive governments can shake the corruption that plagues post soviet states.
Those talented people would be hired abroad and leave. To not have EU visas was a major point of getting into the trap that they are in now. Also, that's the power of money printing that only a few countries have - to buy most of the talent. People from Ukraine will live in another country, pay taxes there, provide to the economies there, all while telling stories of how they love their homeland.
The corruption level is horrific in Ukraine, they need the media to sweat blood to mask it up with next to no success. Anyone who gets the slightest idea of f makeing a change would end up bad....
Some will emigrate and resettle. But most will gain skills and come home. And create good jobs in Ukraine. Ukraine 🇺🇦 is slaying the corruption pattern as fast as possible. It’s a lovely country and rebuilding at peace ✌️
@@davidcpugh8743 tell me you've never been to Ukraine without telling me you've been to Ukraine lol. The whole shtick of that country for the last 30+ years was trying to find someone to pay for them. The plan now is to be on West's allowance, playing the victim card for the next 40 years or something. Hell, all that their president is doing is going on tours asking for money, while making an effort to convince people abroad that the people of Ukraine are "just like them". Damn, they have even legalised weed in Ukraine, what a progressive country lol, now give them some more of that sweet cash. Set some more biolabs, let Blackrock buy some more land, anything goes so that they don't have to work by themselves. "Slaying corruption" lol, I remember when the oligarchs were killing each other in plain daylight in their power struggle just 5 years ago, good luck with that.
The problem with the investment route to rebuilding is that foreign investment is extremely good at creating wealth and then extracting most of it. It’s just replicating the problem of the oligarchs but with foreign oligarchs joining the party.
Yeah exactly that's why post soviet countries who joined EU are unlivable, those germans and americans are extracting every penny out of those economies and most people resort to begging on the street in rags, heartbreaking really But seriously, have you ever seen a chart of GDP per capita for like Poland or Czechia in the last 30 years
@@freddekl1102 Poland didn't privatize as quickly or with as few protectionist policies as Russia and Ukraine did. It was also given near immediate access to the European market and forgiven the lion's share of its past debts. This never happened for Ukraine and Russia, which dissolved into oligarchies.
It requires a very steady hand by the government. Nationalise or regulate core exports f.ex. and not let "cowboy entrepreneurs" go free by corrupting politicians and administration. Not easy, but possible if openess (press freedom) and democracy is maintained.
@@CrackCatWantsPat They were also heavily industrialized as a major port area and part of Baltic trade, and so started off in 1991 exporting refined oil and electronics rather than just agricultural products. It was never going to be a major source of cheap labor and raw goods... which is all the EU and its investors seem ready to see Ukraine as.
in terms of rebuilding estimate - it already has been lowered since they started to "curl up" the country - cutting services to smaller settlements since they lost so may people and forecast for the future are also grim. It will likely end up with a country model similar to Argentina or Brazil - with few huge cities and enormous farms
The issue with dependence on private money for the purposes of rebuilding like you said is that Ukraine will need to highly "liberalize" its economy. The dependence on private money will simply reform the oligarchy they've already been having difficulties with (just different management), and the stripping of worker's rights and protections will only rob the Ukrainian people and land for all their resources. I'd highly recommend they minimize their requirement/future dependency on private investment as much as possible.
@@pedropalotes7638 I'm assuming you meant where do you expect. I'd argue the three following I think would be the most justified. 1.) Selling of all seized Russian assets 2.) Direct loans from the US & EU (United States did this after WWII, it was called the Marshal plan, worked out decently) 3.) Russian Reparations (keep it just under the amount the Russian economy is losing from sanctions, so a payment of reparations means the removal of sanctions) Personally I think these are the best avenues for long term prosperity. We've seen aid before, during and after a war in Europe help to keep out Russian influence while not inherently stripping worker's rights, or democratic practices through the means of over privatization. Privatization is always a dangerous move for workers rights and democratic practices.
@@angelahornung8488 the three following have lots of problems. 1.- The russian assets are mainly in EU banks and EU laws only let you seize them (now they are frozen) if EU is at war against Russia, do you see the french or german government (the main of the assets are in their banks) declaring war against Russia? I dont 2.- EU economy has enough problems to make new loans, EU Comission told Spain to cut government's budget in 22.000 million euro, what do you think will happen in countries that have to make cuts in the budget when is published they are loaning money to Ukraine? In Germany AfD has grown a lot, since this war begun. 3.- Sanctions arent really hurting so much as our media and our politicians says as Russia has hadnt problems to find other markets and as EU countries continue to buy from Russia, France and Spain were last years'main buyers from russian LNG
5:42 Lol, are you serious here? The total population of Siberia is only 33 million, how do you imagine squeezing 3% more in a matter of several months into it without causing a massive unrest?
The captions need some work (Nova Scotia Dam 💀), but overall, great video! I truly hope that Ukraine can rebuild itself soon. Even before the war, they were already the poorest country in Europe, which is sad considering their massive potential.
Most realistic scenario: Russia gets to occupy almost half of Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine becomes the home of thousands of refugees. Kiev becomes a major modern city but a very unequal one as well. The rest remains the same
@@toyotaprius79 I didnt omitt anything, i dont think you comprehend how badly the climate and enviroment was screwed up in Europe after the war either.
@@alexanderrose1556 Question is not in can or cannot, but rather what for? Ofc european banks can print out trillions of euros and entice european business to build Ukraine up, but whether it wants to or not will depend on their interests, not Ukraines. Let me repeat - Ukraine's bright(!) future is no matter of interest to anyone beside the ukrainians. Other powers are taking part in this conflict with their personal interests in mind.
The population of Europe after WW2 did not practically halve along with the fertility rate being significantly below replacement. Key difference and problem to tackle, I feel.
I think there's certainly scope for some large marshall plan esque recovery loans from the EU and further afield. It would be more politically palatable than grants, and it would give the EU an interest in growing the Ukrainian economy since then they would be able to pay them back, even if it took until 2100.
@@toyotaprius79 There's no need for conditionality. Very low interest rates mean they could take their time paying them off, much like western Europe did with their marshall loans. It's not supposed to be a debt trap. In fact the low interest rates are kind of indirect grant since they'll likely trail inflation. And with that attitude the marshall plan shouldn't have been done because some people thought we'd all perish in nuclear hellfire before 1980.
I was reluctant to explore the bad news affecting Ukraine (initially resistant based upon your title). But I'm glad I did. This is a very thoughtful analysis I could not have gotten elsewhere, and now I've found a new relevant and trustworthy channel to watch. Your rational, yet emotional, delivery is engaging. Thanks for all your hard work!
Thank you for the video. We face numerous existential problems in Ukraine, but I hold an optimistic view on demographics. From my experience living abroad for three years, I predict a strong desire among Ukrainians to return. I believe around 60-70% of those who left will come back after the war ends. The outcome will depend on the format of the war's resolution, but Ukraine has succeeded in cultivating internal soft power and a sense of belonging to something greater than oneself and one's family over the past 30 years.
Most of the millions who left the country since february 2022 won't come back in Ukraine to live. MOst of themm were already dreaming about leaving the country enven before the war started. After this war the most economically viable part of Ukraine will be under the russian side. The country will be spiritually broken as it's economy.
I would not be that hopefull.. We had few migration waves in Poland, many people left and have never came back, even if we are currently safe and have strong economy. People just settled somewhere else and are happy with their life. Who would come back to completly devastated city?? Without work, schools and so on... Only old stubborn folks.
Mostly women left and many of them since the war started settled, found boyfriends and surely some married. Many women lost husbands, what they have to come back for? Also many came back from Poland. 5 million Ukrainians also live in Russia. Likelihood is more will go to Russia. The thing is, many people speak only Russian. If they are engineers or teachers, lawyers, they do not want to go to Romania or UK in their 50s and start earning new language. Would you? It takes your career back and some people hate speaking another language. Russian language is also very specific. It is very hard for them to speak without an accent and they know they are being mocked for it. Maybe but easier for Ukrainian speakers.
Ukrainians are bilingual. no normal Ukrainian wants to go to Russia. many people were forcibly taken there, children for example. Someone was able to get out of there @@olivka7560
Without youth, wealth generation becomes an unproven hypothesis. You can not project wealth without people who will work, consume, sustain a country and, in time, have more children. Europe is ageing and its main source of youth is people who has increasing difficulty integrating, let alone many don't have the required skills (as millions are refugees without special qualifications).
Russia will never allow that Ukraine will join eu/nato which is Russia's biggest enemy sitting right on its border. If Ukraine is in eu/nato, then you will have neverending wars forever.
Of courrse I know, my country is a member of both. but do you know why NATO was formed and by who? Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore, but NATO stayed, plus instead of Soviet Union, you now have European Union which if you look at it closely it is a hidden communism under 'democracy' umbrella.
Reconstruction of Ukraine 🇺🇦, if it is completed, will take years, as the country's infrastructure is in shambles. And let's not kid ourselves, the best piece of the Ukrainian pie will go to American companies. On the other hand, until Ukraine can join the EU 🇪🇺 it will also take years, since it has to make many legal and economic reforms; in addition, the EU will have to make a huge outlay of money in cohesion funds, which will surely be a problem for the EU coffers.
Americans will focus on selling arms (+ probably permanent military base) and probably gas/oil in the black sea, maybe even a nuclear power plant .... There is a reason it was french companies who built the sarcophagus around Chernobyl a few years ago, the US is just too far (not to mention they don't even use the metric system)
@@trthib US based Agrotech and big agri-business companies are buying land in Ukraine for decades now, when prices were stable. Now just imagine the cost of land which is ridden with mines and explosives and will be unproductive till decades more ! Energy & Electricity, Mineral & hydrocarbon, food and farming, IT & Services sectors already have huge US based companies present. It's the Iraq-Cargill-Haliburton saga all over again. UK as usual will get to lick the bones and chew on the crumbs. EU based companies will have some subcontract at best but simply will not have enough political capital in Kyiv to win anything more substantial. Bigger worry should be the EU's capacity to finance long term reconstruction considering the mountain of debt due to the COVID and Energy crisis. Slow growth and borderline recession on some countries like Germany will only add to the woe.
Why won't we rebuild Europe first. Eastern and some middle European countries still look like 1960. If we would take care of our problems first than taking care of other's problems wouldn't be a debate.
@@zeNoldor I'm begging for help? What about Ukraine your home country BEGGING for our BILLIONS of our money and BEGGING for F-16. Btw my friend couldnt go to the dormatory because you dirty Ukrainians are living there. Start making peace you warmongers.
This whole war is such a depressing story man, and Im not even affected by like the people of Ukraine. Sure Im in the EU and total victory would benefit all of us, but Im not the one fighting a much larger country who invaded and basically crippled an already stagnant economy with a declining population whose rate has been significantly accelerated....
You left out the 4th scenario: Russia either directly or indirectly controls all of Ukraine. Somehow, most people in the West (I am an American just to be clear) can't grasp that Russia is a superpower and it is not going away. Ukraine is a third rate power, and only still exists because 30 NATO countries have sent an almost unlimited amount of weapons to it. (and the US pays its bills to run its government). Ukraine has gotten nothing out of its current offensive, except probably 30,000 more dead soldiers and a battlefield littered with burnt hunks of twisted metal that were supposedly NATO game changing weapons (there are videos of this all over RUclips for anyone who wants to see them). Moreover, NATO is running out of shells to send Ukraine. What happens then?
It's probably cause Russia isn't a superpower. Not unless you completely change the definition of superpower. And since I don't live under "Russian reality", I use the sane definition. Moreover, NATO's entire reserve was exausted by the hundred or so artillery systems we sent Ukraine, you say? And to make it worse, Russia destroyed ALL of them almost immediately, they barelly got a chance to fire! Damn, I had no idea our reserves were down to the last two dozen shells. Our evil American overlords really screwed the pooch on that one.
More then that the conflict in Niger may approach, it is more improtant country for EU, then Ukraine, because it gives up to 30% of uranium for nuclear power stations, and france depends on that energy for 70%. I wonder if ukraine will get the same support when resources will be needed in Africa?
That is no longer anywhere near a scenario. No matter how hard Russia tries, it will not be accepted by ukrainians. Russia is a superimpotentpower, that only grows weker day by day. As for offensive, you clearly have no clue as to what is going on there... Just you wait, and you will see Russian collapse. There is no way for Russia to become any stronger then it is. Mobilisation? Main russian problems are logistics, intelligence, comand, morale, training and technical degradation. None of those problems are solved by mobilisation and most are made worse. Now think about all the thing ukraine didn't get yet, form F-16 to ATACMS. There is a way to grow. And USA found a simple solution to shells problem. They simply sent cluster municions, those are not close to running out.
As a Irish person, I would love to see Ukraine as part of the EU. However, I don't like the prospect of having less representation when we're actively paying towards Ukraine's rejuvenation. I just don't think that EU representation should be based off of population because that weakens richer countries like Ireland who pay more but receive less.
I think between the drive of the people and the help they are getting they will rebuild faster then many think, war is terrable in a lot of ways but as we have seen it pulls a society together the people that are still there want to be there and want to see there country flourish again
@@rob6927 I’d say before Moscow tried to suck it dry? In the Soviet Union it was full of factories producing a large about of ships tanks etc, if it was already free it would have been rich but Moscow took it for potato’s and now that they are somewhat free, they have huge grain exports, huge gas and oil deposits in its territory, and still have a large manufacturing infrastructure
I get the feeling that Ukraine could be a real economic regional power if the post-war period is managed well. All the building blocks are there, it'll just take massive western investment akin to Germany after WW2
@@Bille994 they won’t be. The US state department has no intentions of actually honoring the promises made. The goal of the US in particular in supplying Ukraine is pretty much exclusively to weaken Russia in a cheaper fashion than a direct conflict with them. I actually don’t believe the US government even wants the war to end at all, with the way supplies have been drip fed instead of merely opening the floodgates at the outset.
The Ukraine has many issues which will take decades to resolve. But yeah, granting them candidate status, cooperating and working together to eventually have them in the EU would be the best way forward. They need a real perspective (a future) and we could make use of their multiple dormant Ressources. Biggest issue is the general aging and demographic issues in the west meaning no to low growth economies. Frankly, theres a real probability that there just won't be enough (money) to go around.
Na Ukrainie jest taki poziom korupcji, że to się nie zdarzy. U mnie na polu dziś pracowało dorywczo dwóch Ukraińców. Powinni być w okopach na Zaporożu. Śmieją się z tych co walczą na Ukrainie. Kupili sobie po aucie - BMW i jeżdżą po okolicznych dyskotekach wkurwiając miejscowych.
It ain’t going to happen, it’s taken 70 years to get Poland in a decent state with huge German and EU investment. We are not that rich anymore and sadly corporations will take advantage of all the sectors (resources) where money can be easily made.
Greetings from Ukraine! Really grateful for your thoughtful coverage of this topic, just wanted to flag a couple factual errors that immediately stuck out to me, for the sake of future improvement. You display Rinat Akhmetov's name incorrectly, using just his surname and patronymic, which is never practised in Ukraine. Also, the Lugano conference happened during the fifth month of the full-scale war.
You are correct unfortunately. Even before war Ukraine was losing people due to net migration. Now with so many men lost to war, we will probably see something like post war Germany where a lot of foreign males will move in and settle in whatever will be post war Ukraine. My guess is a lot of immigration from the middle east(poorer regions) and South Asia.
@@linkme2dnet thats a bit... dramatic, Italy in WW2 was facing a migration net loss prior to WW2, and after WW2, with a decently middle aged population, Italy did eventually see millions of Italians eventually returning in Net numbers by the 1960s. SO its a tough situation but wars have a unique affect on people, especially in regard to Migrations.
@@FOLIPE as an Tuscan myself, I partially do yes mean that, I'm not gonna get into immigration matters of the last 35 years but , my point is people do come back home
Awesome video! Very insightful, albeit slightly worrisome. It teaches me to think in scenarios rather than just jumping to conclusions. I feel very very sorry for all those Ukrainian people of good will who just want to live their lives in a stable, free prosperous country. (which actually goes for their prosecuted Russian and Belorussian counterparts as well) These are strange times, war times, ominous times. Administrations like Putin's do not help making the world a better place.
Russia can hold its new borders for a very long time, it's just banal that it has more army and resources. If there is no agreement, there will simply be the same shelling of Donetsk as in 2014
I think the best option for Ukraine would be peace on Russia's terms. Russia is only interested in territories with a large Russian-speaking population. Thus, Russia may be interested only in Transnistria, the situation with which can be solved much easier diplomatically, by returning the inhabitants to Russia or giving up the entire territory of Transnistria.
@@sptrco Well, if you judge like that, then the goals of the war were not Transnistria, it seems that no one is pressing on them, just a small piece of the micro country of Transnistria
@@landate1 I follow the situation in Transnistria and Moldova. Transnistria rebelled because it did not support the pro-Western orientation of the Moldovan authorities. And now the situation is getting worse due to the reduction in the number of Russian diplomats and the pumping of Moldova with American weapons. So I consider it important for Russia to reach the borders of Transnistria to deter Moldova or Ukraine from possible encroachments on the territory with Russian peacekeepers and Russian people
Nice video, thank you! The only thing to add, as a Ukrainian: we had an illusion in 2014, after the Crimea occupation, that it may be possible to negotiate with Russia to come up with some agreement or a status quo at least. Now, in 2023, it's obviously that Russia don't want that and never wanted. Therefore, "peace in a current lines" = "give Russia a time to recover and to continue its invasion in an upcoming years". So mid term it'd be more similar to an "endless war" scenario
Detachement from the reality of this video is mind boggling. US exported their Industries to Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea to build a bulwark towards Russia and China. There is nothing more to export. The social conditions in the US are such that they are bringing it back from the clients. Ukraine is intended to be a wasteland between two centers of surplus production thus preventing a greater Eurasian prosperity and a challenge to the hegemony.
Great video. The war needs to be won first but the EU should have a comprehensive strategy strategy for rebuilding (including membership) in place for when the day finally comes
I have a question. Who is subsidizing Belarus? Belarus is under sanctions since 90es. No mentioning that Ukraine achieved to be one of the most corrupt states in the world LATELY after a lot supposedly helping to perform ukranian economy better europe inspired reforms. Extremely poorly researched material, dislike.
Hi, Russia is subsidizing Belarus :) All that raw petroleum that Belarus magically gets to process is its own form of subsidy. Plus many loans. I do mention corruption in Ukraine multiple times. Bye, Hugo
Interestion how everything went downwards after the Sovjet Union 1:13 and decades later it still lives on what the Sovjet Union left behind 3:10 Yet the USSR is always depicted as a faliure and capitalism the supposed way out of misery...
Sadly for Ukraine, it's easy for Russia to engage in the war for many years (also at a low-level intensity) to inhibit accession for the EU and NATO effectively. In some way, the EU and NATO must find an innovative solution to solve the expected deadlock situation and enable Ukraine to develop into a prosperous country despite its aggressive neighbor.
Noticed several things that are wrong here - the easy one is in the names of the Ukraine oligarchs, AKHMETOV LEONIDOVICH is quite wrong, the persons name is Rinat Akhmetov, Leonidovych being his surname. And the second one that kinda ticked off for being factually wrong - Russia never shelled Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, it was taken without much hassle in March 2022 and only military that did shell it was Ukraine. Unless you go into rigid propaganda that Russia shells itself, which is just ridiculous. Same level of idiocy as Ukrainian mainstream media in 2014-2022 that claimed that explosions in Donetsk were "air conditioners exploding" or russians shelling themselves, but definitely not ukrainian army shelling civilians.
It is interesting that as a Soviet republic Ukraine accumulated a huge economic potential - it was perhaps the best developed Soviet republic - but as soon as it became independent it began to lose that potential. Huge numbers of Ukrainians had to go to Russian to earn money. And, of course, to Poland and other Western countries. I wonder why independence lead to a degradation of Ukraine's economy? Belarus, fared much better.
There is one quite simple answer: oil and gas, which I think explains a large part of this phenomenon. Russia's budget is based off petroleum exports, while Belarus is for a large part subsidized by Russian oil and gas exports as well (it is bascially a refining station for Russian petroleum goods). Ukraine's own gas fields have yet to be exploited. Cheers, Hugo
Because in Ukraine there are too many populists of politicians, corrupt officials. People in Ukraine are too gullible and do not have critical thinking. Who will talk to the Western standard of living is popular until there is someone who lies even more beautiful. First prizident of Ukraine Kravchuk: Ukraine will be the new Switzerland- 90e President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko: Our place in the European Union.- early 2000s Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk: new Marshal's plan - 2014 ..the story continues
@@IntoEurope It still doesn't really explain how they missed out on so much potential. Russia, along with gas and oil, took over all the debt obligations of the Soviet Union. Ukraine had nothing of the sort. Even the Baltic countries, which had no resources at all, did better and preserved part of the industrial heritage.
@@NordskaDude, he is delusional. Ukranian state is very bad governed and is extremly corrupt. Also the country has suffered a brutal depopulation decline, in 1991 there was like 50M, before war there was no much more than 35M, and now much much better. Add the 6 million Ukranians that moved to EU, the 5 million that moved to Russia, all the ones that live in the current Russian occuppied territories (Donetsk was the rich part of the country btw). And all the young men killed and wounded incapable of work, who will surpass easy the one million combined. I am pessimistic with Spain, Italy or France, imagine Ukranie... (Long term).
If this thing will go no for a bit longer the Europe will go bust itself with little chance helping Ukraine in the future. The hope of Russia paying the bill is wishful and the more time is passing is delusional.
So many things wrong with this video: 1. The has been no confirmation Russia destroyed the Nova kakhova dam. All you have is Kiev's words 2. Why would Russia shell the Zaporyhze nuclear power plant? They control it 3. Ukraine's pre war GDP per capita is lower than Iraq's. Actual, literal war-torn, Iraq had a higher GDP per capita than Ukraine 4. Also Demographic collapse is Ukraine's greatest risk. They entered this war with a lower GDP per capita than an actual war-torn hell hole, their economy's been devastated, millions have fled the country. this means Ukraine's most probable future is: fucked.
Fun Fact: It was Ukraine and Russia who saved The Union during the American Civil War as they sent their Navy to San Francisco and New York when England and France were just about to enter the war on the side of the Confederates since London created the Confederates. France was already in Mexico making a spear head movement to resupply the Confederates and to open up a Pacific Theatre and create a port in California. England already amassed 11,000 troops stationed at their Northern Confederacies border now called Canada ready to open a Northern Theatre then to attack The Unions naval blockade. The Union would have been completely destroyed and annexed by those two great powers leaving the Confederates to exist as a puppet state of London. Tsar Alexander wrote a letter to Queen Victoria saying “If you enter in this war it will be a casus belli for all out war with the Russian Empire”. The stage was set for the 1st World War and Russia stopped it.
Believe me, it can. The dynamics during the last few years is very positive and now during the war it's 3x, society wants to get rid of it very much, the problem is the corrupt judges. It's very hard to reform those, cause they are independent and basically outlawed. Once that's settled corruption will be nulled. Each case of corruption is widely discussed through public and makes people very angry. Ukraine now and 10 years ago are two different countries.
@@ОлекСандр-у7о1ж Indeed. In other hand is veterans who fighting not for corrupted shit in suits. I believe soldiers will make them afraid to steal money. There's many questions to politicans right now, but there's an bigger enemy in the frontline so we can't do anything.
How specifically do you envision the most optimistic scenario? Even if it is possible to return the territories to the borders of 91, the war will not end, Russia will withdraw, accumulate forces and the war will continue until it runs out of human resources. What could motivate Russia to sign a peace treaty? I have no idea.
Sanctions had to destroy Russian economics and its ability to wage this war. So far ukrainians do better on battlefield than western economists on their front. maybe just invest in long range weapons for Ukraine instead and it will be over much sooner with less damage
You don't know what you're talking about 😂 Ukraine before the war was safer than streets of Bengal. Now the West is semi-calm and a year or two after the war the East will be as well.
@@ohajohaha nobody’s got the money in abundance for a hopeless nation please understand, Ukraine failed to deliver what west wanted besides Ukraine’s top leadership is corrupted. Ukraine is not any better than Pakistan Ukraine’s fate lies with RUSSIA
Thanks for such a detailed and unbiased video about my country. All my family has stayed in Ukraine: we work, donate as much as we can, husbands and brothers defend against "zombies". It's hard, especially morally - but we have no other choice but to fight the biggest evil.
History shows how reconstructing after a war creates gigantic economic opportunities. We called it "postwar economic boom" for a reason. Althogh is very basic, it's important to understand that money circulates, so "spending money" doesn't mean you burn it. That money goes into another person's pockets. Reconstructing a city mean having money flowing to companies, workers, taxes and back to the State in a fast cycle, which is very good for economy itself.
@@SA2004YG They don't need any charity. They have all the resources and the partners to make good deals. Also, one thing is when you borrow money and you spend it as you wish, another thing is when you plan something and there is a control from the entity who is lending money. Let me translate this. If the EU will send money there won't be oligarchs making it disappear. Trust me, I know, I'm italian and every cent that comes from the EU is scrutinized, every project approved and followed. This could be a unique opportunity to get rid of oligarchs in Ukraine, because we all know there are.
The ""spending money" doesn't mean you burn it" is a flawed way of looking at it, this is how inflation happens. Money actualy represents something, and that is human labour. If you spend money you buy labour that can not be bought by anoyone else ever again. So if you spend 300 mil on a stupid yacht, that is 300 milion worth of production that won't go to education, food, or any other basic human need. That being said, rebuilding Ukraine is obviously worth it because it is an investment in a significant increase in future production.
Yes, but Japan was a major superpower before its surrender in 1945-colonizing many Asian nations such as Korea and China. The fall of Japan was overshadowed by the emergence of communism and the onset of the Korean War. I personally don't think Ukraine has that kind of luck.
@@tenshimx2163 except the russians were there at the time and they mined the dam. Not hard to look for proof. You don't have to tell me as a ukrainian what to believe in, either
I hope people realize that having Ukraine in the Common Market will be extremely beneficial in the coming decades, so should be of high priority. As climate change continues to get worse, adding a large food producer like Ukraine will grant us an extra level of security as food will become an actual issue that Europeans have to deal with. So even from an egoistic perspective it's good, I would almost say vital, for us to help Ukraine and add them to the fold. 1 trillion euros over the course of a decade or so is not even really a huge deal for let's say OECD, or EU+US, or whatever coalition of rich countries you want to think of. I mean yes, it's a lot, but it's not impossible by any means. If I counted right it would be about 1-2% of US federal budget if they do it alone, which they won't, others will help as well. It's expensive but doable, and that's using the pessimistic number for the total cost.
How did you do your calculations? It's quite doubtful that the way our economies are going there is going to be a trillion+ spare to give out, also keep in mind the amount is just getting higher the longer the war continues.
@@rob6927 I mean 2% is still quite a large amount, you'd have to deprioritize something else, but my point is that it's possible. Basically, the calculation was: The US federal budget (expenditure, they're deficit spending) is about $6 trillion per year (according to Wikipedia). (These days 1$=1€ more or less.) So in 10 years (arbitrary time period) that's 60 trillion. 1 trillion is somewhere between 1-2% of that. For comparison the German federal budget is about €300 billion per year. So if we take for example all of the OECD, you see what I mean that it wouldn't be a massive problem.
@@xway2 As if it was that easy. Good luck with finding a trillion dollars in the current economy. And also the longer the war keeps going, the amount needed rises as well... I don't see how any of this could end well for Ukraine. Most likely the "help" they will get will only be getting some kind of visa program to work in the West.
@@rob6927 I mean I agree, I don't think it will happen. It's just that I think it would be good to help them fully, even from an egoistic perspective (at least for the EU), and it would theoretically be possible if there is the political will to do it. Just like a lot of countries (mine included) are now finding the money to start spending 2% GDP (which is like ~6-10%+ budget) on military. Large reassignments of the budget are possible if we just decide to do it.
1) There's far more than 8 million refugees right now. About 10-14 million, 2 of which are in Russia. No one knows the exact number left within occupied regions (except for Crimea, but Ukraine itself doesn't recognize it's people as Ukrainian). I have a friend in Donbass and he says that he doesn't want to leave the city, simple as that, despite Russia providing an open corridor to migrate anywhere you want trough Russia or stay in Russia. And the number of refugees grows by this day 2) Demographic collapse was there ever since the fall of USSR, losing 250--400k people a year 3) Unless you forcefully make refugees go back after the war, only 25% will return at best. Moving to western countries is, pretty much, an "American dream" for many within Russia and Ukraine 4) The reason why the numbers needed for reconstruction are so much different on the sides of West and Ukraine is because it's in no one's interest to have a "strong" Ukraine. Extracting resources and agriculture? - yeah. Being a competitor to Germany, France, UK, US and Poland? - no 5) South Korea is a kind of country you wouldn't like to live in. It's pretty much Cyberpunk dystopia without futuristic elements 6) If Ukraine is forced to give up the land it would mean even higher price for restoring the economy due to Zaporoaksjdhaskjhd nuclear power plant and the occupied land being the industrial base of Ukraine 7) At the moment demands for peace by both Russia and Ukraine are basically admitting "complete defeat" for the other side. Due to that, it's cheaper for Russia to actually nuke Ukraine and achieve a "bitter victory" and would pretty much admit that they've lost on the ground, destroy their reputation. Unless either side becomes realistic (or hopefully both), it won't end until one side will get decimated 8) Ukraine's GDP wouldn't be able to sustain the price of restoration project, it would quite literally mean giving up sovereignty if it's given as a loan 9) Corruption isn't something that can be eliminated just because you want to do so, especially on the level of Russia or Ukraine. Unless EU is willing to close eyes on that corruption, Ukraine will have to wait for decades for it to vanish since it was built on top of it, once again, like Russia. However, if Ukraine would be forced to wait, the accumulation of damage could potentially cripple the state. The other way is to disregard the human rights and use far right groups to fight the oligarchs, but you know where it goes and how welcoming EU will be afterwards 10) This conflict was originally born from the conflict between Ukrainian and Russian oligarchs. Ukrainian side was forcing Russian one to give up businesses within the Ukraine for dirt-cheap (like Russia does to western ones from time to time right now) and security concerns. Ukraine was paranoid because of Russian influence and having a large Russian diaspora within it's east and south (like, even people in Kyiv would speak Russian at least 50% of all times) and that Russian diaspora is, well, pro-Russian. There's a saying that "the further away from Russia a Russian is, the more pro-Russia they are" and that was absolutely the case for Ukraine, so pro-western part would do quite unpopular policies in the Eastern and South parts to go further away from Russia, including a goal to join NATO. Meanwhile, while Russia could give up Ukraine to EU and even use it as a doorway to EU's markets/goods due to Ukrainian corruption, they cannot allow NATO to completely block them from the West and with the pro-western Ukraine parties being the leaders, Germany would've ended up as the only somehow reliable partner but even that would have it's limits. Due to that Russia had tried to pull of soft (for example, Nordstream 2 - a project Ukraine was complaining A LOT because it would render their route as pointless) threats and then a hard one, the results of which we see now P.S. I honestly have no idea why exactly did Putin break his promise of just conducting training on Ukraine's border (because he's knows as the guy who never breaks his promises in the international field (he does it like breathing in the internal one)) and even mocking the West for false accusations of the upcoming invasion afterwards. No one really believes into biolab reason he gave because, well, even Russians won't trust a Russian state TVs. Nazi problem, while it exist and is, in fact, severe in Ukraine, in a nice side-reason to have, but it can't be the actual reason for an invasion and Russia never even demanded renaming Bandera streets, demolishing nazi memorials or naming OUN into a extremist organisation. While even my grandfather and his father were affected by Bandera's mobs and I feel quite uneasy about Ukraine treating him as a hero, no way I... or anyone with a brain would buy that reason for an invasion. Which leaves us with a question what exactly happened on the day of the invasion. Hopefully, soon we'll know and the culprits will be punished, no matter who they are. But of course, it's just a wishful thinking and the truth might end up buried in the achieves.
Russian speakers and russians are not the same. Ukrainian russian speakers mostly pro-ukrainian. Even not all ukrainian russians are pro-russia or fans of putin.
This has become a war against dollar at this point, on multiple fronts. And Russia, since Georgia 2008 doesnt trust the West (USA and UK, because the other has no voice).
There is little doubt that the US which has a rich experience in rebuilding war-torn countries like Iraq and Afghanistan will rebuid Ukraine as successfully. Or even more so.
Yeah, the sad truth is that private corporations flock to wherever they can exploit workers the hardest. I think this might backfire and turn more workers to leave or stay in the EU though. The most positive thing could be a temporary worker export like Poland have done for the last decades. Where workers work abroad, but use their money back home until the quality and pay for work in their home country becomes comparable. This will force corporations to pay decent wages and give freedom for their workforce as well.
Sueing Russia doesn't sound like a bad idea. Having Russia pay for all the damages and the rebuilding would not only relieve EU countries and *its* citizens, it would also dissuade Russia from making any attempts of invasion in the future.
You may try, but there is no chance they will ever pay. They rather put up another iron curtain and blame europe for their own faults. Take it to the bank - russia will never pay willingly and there is no power in this world that can force them. On the other hand, Iron Curtain v.2.0 doesn't sound too bad. In the end, we learned to live without them, so what's the point in keeping our markets open to them in the future?
I mean, Ukraine isn't joining the EU any time soon even if they win the war tomorrow. It'll take many years for them to meet the requirements even with plenty of foreign aid. By that time the EU's redistribution mechanisms will look different anyway, so I don't think it's much use speculating on how they'd apply to Ukraine.
The EU could also consider making a special offer/emergency case. For example, the Balkan states in the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars. The circumstances are really unprecedented. Especially since the EU knows that if Ukraine doesn't have a safety net, it would be invaded again by Russia
@basiledex2164 The US is in a recession like 50% of the time and yet they still manage to be a world power. Why would the EU have any reason to dissolve anyways?
Hi everyone,
Small update, since I recorded the video, the Danube River ports have been targetted, further isolating Ukraine economically. This is line withngs that would happen that I mention in the 3rd scenario.
Cheers,
Hugo
Hilarious how you blame "Soviet Bureaucracy" while ignoring the fact that Ukraine was and still is the most corrupt country in Europe. Zelensky is in fact the center piece of the Pandora Papers. Zelensky is the living embodiment of a corrupt politician, but somehow you forgot to mention that.
That has effectively declared war on Moldova, and if Romania were to insist on its claims, them too.
@@JelMainBS. The ports targeted are in Ukraine controlled territory. Only response will be further security beefup in MD & RO.
Same as when the missile hit Polish territory and 2 farmers died as a result in Poland.
@@linkme2dnet Nonsense. It's piracy, plain pure and simple, as is Russia's attempt to monopolise the entire Black Sea, itself an attack on the territorial waters of three NATO members. Ukraine is free to ship its wheat where it will, overland to Poland, if you like: the problem is that it massively increases the shipping expense to Africa.
The missile was Ukrainian, an accident Poland has tolerated. But at the same time, one cannot forget Russia's attack on an American drone, and the three GRU attacks in the UK, the organised interference with democracy (which involved me personally, I should add, although it's simply more of a lifetime's focus on that pitiful excuse for a nation) and decades of enmity and abuse of many other nations. Pressure is building inside NATO for a less passive response.
The Black Sea does not belong to Russia, so Moscow has no rights over any it anyway. Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine (which includes Crimea and the Azov region), and Georgia have their rights to their parts of the Black Sea. Russia's Black Sea naval fleet has so got to go. Liquidate it if we must.
Could be an incredible opportunity for Ukraine to rid itself of corruption and build itself into a prosperous country.
Ukraine will turn into obsidian and tektite by 2025.
this is the only 'silver lining' to the war frankly speaking. Yes there was widespread corruption in Ukraine before the war but what people dont realise is that this was *because* oligarchs had very close ties to the Kremlin / Siloviki etc. putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter for F-sake! The Yanukovich government had to go.
It's extremely difficult for Ukraine to modernise with such insidious Kremlin / russian influence in everything
Dude, Ukraine and corruption are synonymous words, at best they would have introduced "lobbying" instead of corruption, which would not have changed the picture much
bra, your comment lacks significant context.
Yes there was widespread corruption in Ukraine before the war but you need to realise that this was because oligarchs had very close ties to the Kremlin / Siloviki etc or were russian themselves.
putin is the godfather of Medvechuk's daughter for F-sake! The Yanukovich government had to go.
Ukraine had 80 years of Communism/ Stalinism / Leninism and before 1917 (the year there was a Ukrainian attempt at independence - btw the map of Ukraine pre-1917 includes part of russia and was drawn and recognised by Dutch traders in the 17th Century. Can tell this next time a russian tries to come up with some BS about border changes by Lenin), they had two centuries of russian empire expansion and brutal aggression.
Then consider the complete banning of Ukrainian language and culture throughout the entire 18th and 19th centuries, the active washing of Ukrainian history by Catherine the Great & Alexander II, and the execution of 100,000 Ukrainian intelligencia during the cold war.
Oh, and the death of 10.5m Ukrainians from 3 famines deliberated caused by the Soviets - see Hoover Institute lecture on the subject - ruclips.net/video/3E9IrWqWewU/видео.html
Now, you try to overhaul a country with such constant, long running, and insidious influence and adversity see how easy it is!
People really need to give the Ukrainians credit where credit is due! They will accomplish the task but its painful, involves a lot of suffering, and it deserves everyone's support!
@@anneslot7013 Laughs in German
I think people really underestimate what an aging, declining population means for an economy, life expectancy and future outcomes. Without more young people to work/pay the pensions/healthcare of an ever increasing older population, fill increasing job vacancies, consume, and increase demand in the economy, you face socio-economic collapse. Russia, China and even large parts of western europe face a similar outcome. All the best to Ukraine.
But Ukraine today has founding myth and once war is over even prospect of better days coming, so I would expect baby boom after the war.
Ukrainians should have concentrated on making babies. But in the modern world child-bearing and child-rearing are considered boring, old-fashioned and bad for the Planet.
@@MrToradragon Yeah, hopefully Ukraine would experience a baby boom with 2 children or 3 children per Ukrainian woman ideally like Israel's fertility rate. A booming, young Ukrainian population would be great overall.
The trend is the same everywhere but Africa, but it happens at different speeds in different places. The west may be declining soon but only slow, and it's easily the richest region of the world and thus will be best positioned to deal with it. Just how it is. Literally everyone else will get it much, much worse.
China is different because of their huge investments in AI and robotics. Their government predicted that the population will fall in the future because of lifestyle changing of the Chinese and onechild policy.
As a Ukrainian, I would say government incompetence (corruption) and demographics are the two greatest challenges in the Ukrainian post-war recovery. So far, I don't feel any optimistic about neither of those.
Particularly if the EU's involved.
@@JelMain The EU is not perfect, it has all sorts of flaws. But it's one of the least corrupt parts of the world. Most of the top countries in the world for tackling corruption are in the EU.
Once the war is over, hopefully the demographic problems will be helped by immigration to Ukraine. The corruption is a huge issue but I think Ukraine as a country is more united than ever before as a people and there is the political will to tackle corruption. The war will provide the shock to the system that will allow corruption to be tackled.
@@ster2600 I've spent twenty years in Brussels face to face with the real thing. It's not presented a clean set of accounts since soon after it was formed - I was Head of Finance of WEU for half that time. It is loathed by the locals, and renowned for its sloth - they tell the tale of a local admiring the huge buildings and asking how many people work there - the reply's about ten. When they took on the Foreign and Security Policy Portfolio from us, they gave themselves three years to accomplish what took us three months to set up, a functional Military HQ, but hadn't accomplished it in ten. Eventually Cameron pulled the plug.
The problem's that our Council focused on the job of keeping Europe safe. Theirs has taken on too much, and the defence portfolio is way down the list behind rabbit-farming in San Remo. The essence of good soldiering is speed, a word missing from their vocabulary. Indeed, their President, Ursula van der Leyen, was nominated to get rid of her from German politics after she fouled up her role of Defence Minister so seriously she left the army without boots for five years. When Ukraine blew up, it was discovered that was simply the tip of the iceberg, where everyone else has given Ukraine kit which would otherwise have gone to the scrap yard (but was still far better than what the Russians have, so it was adequate for the purpose) Germany's sent it's 50 year old Leopard 2s, with nothing better to replace them with.
This is why they have no voice in the matter, they simply don't know their subject.
@patagonianpaintsome people would say there was a plan
As a Ukrainian born in currently occupied territory I can confirm it is one of the most detailed and well thought through videos on this topic I have seen so far. The major challenges Ukrainian post-war economy will face are described in a pretty realistic and balanced manner. Not too much optimism nor pessimism.
One can see a lot of open-source research has been done before making this video. Thank you so much for your work and keep it up!
So, you're less than two years old?
Currently occupied territory. I was born there when it wasn’t, silly
Russia is a country of killers
@@maxibardi Yes, silly me.
@@RandomGuy-qg9xf absolutely agree. Demographically, both for Ukraine and Russia, it is the worst time ever to throw the little amount of young people we have into the furnace of war.
One of the sad things for me as an architect is realising that a lot of the reconstruction will be fast and chaotic, prioritising fast growth, bulk and making Investors and politicians happy- this will mean that quality, traditional methods of construction and new urbanism will be set aside- even though so much soviet architecture has been destroyed, it will be replaced by contemporary project which are not that different.
Yes. I do hope not. Is there any way of preventing that kind of disaster?
@@daydays12 convincing the people in power that it is worth it to create good quality urban spaces. Educating the public and see if people rally or not around this issue.
@@Abcflc nah that's not possible. Especially knowing that Ukraine is poor af and corrupt.
The reconstruction process already going on in Mariupol for example. Quality of the buildings is OKAY I guess...
they should give up all the territories so Russia has to rebuild everything💀
There is another factor to consider: who will rebuild Ukraine an for who will it be rebuilt? The country was already among those in a very bad place demographically, having inherited nearly off the same issues as russia has through the ussr. Add in the economic hit from the war discussed here to the tendency for a portion of refugees to end up putting down roots wherever they went to and to not come back, and how those refugees tend to be younger and women increasing the relative demographic hit from whatever number don't come back compared to if it were a more even distribution, and you have quite a hard situation for a country to recover from.
Demographically Ukraine not so bad. Ukraine mean age of first birth was 22 years in 1993, now it 27 years, so real fertility rate was 1,5 children per women not 1,2 (from 1993 to 2023). As mean age of first birth growing and will be 32 years old in 2050, so real fertility rate will be 1,5 before 2050, but per year fertility rate will be 1,2.
So population decline will be fast but family structure will be not so bad. Real fertliity rate in Ukraine now for women who is 40 years old. Childless-7%,
1 child-50%, 2 children-37%, 3 and more children - 7%.
98% of houses belongs to families so majority of young couples inherited houses from grandparents in age about 30 years old. As they have no need in buying or renting house, they use money on local services. Typical Ukranian person in age 33 years old married with 1 or 2 children and inherited flat in city and house in village.
@@rohj4825 probably because theyre dying young
@@KennyNGABiggest reason for lower life expectancy is that older Ukrainians is overweight. So in Ukraine there are much lower number of people 70 and more years old compared with West Europe or East Asia.
So for person of age 33 years old it very uncommon have grandparents.
@@KennyNGABefore war mortality rate for person younger than 40 years old was almost at the same level with West Europe.
So Ukraine population decline fast and will be about 17 millions in 2100, but the proportion of childless lonely old people in Ukraine will be much lower compared with West Europe or East Asia.
I am from Ukraine, and I have been following your videos since the creation of your channel. Thank you, Hugo, for delving into this particular topic. I firmly believe it holds as much significance as the results on the battlefield itself. Here's hoping for the most optimistic scenario to come to life! 🤞
💪🏽
Sending my luck to you guys aswell
And thank you for your support! :)
@@bannerjay3347 Thank you very much!
Cant reach first defense line.
Greetings from Croatia! Our last war ended 28 years ago, we've been a member of the EU for 10 years, NATO for 15 years, we are even in the Schengen area...
Croatia took less damage in four years of fighting than Ukraine did in two and we're still not done with rebuilding!
There are minefields and people still die (or get injured). Hatred towards other ethnic groups is still present. There are missing war victims whose graves are not known. Ex-soldiers still recieve pensions and benefits draining the budget funds. Society never fully mentally recovered from war (us vs them) mentality.
However most people do believe it was worth it since we didn't have much choice and had to defend our independence.
Ukraine has massive support of the West so I hope your recovery will be much faster
Still, I believe that the recovery of Croatia is a success story. You're a respected member of the EU, and your economy is growing despite the tourism crash during the pandemic. Recovery is an ongoing process, but if Ukraine is on the same trajectory as Croatia it would definitely not be the worst case scenario.
Though of course I hope Ukraine gets a total victory that includes lots of war reparations and border recognition.
Despite the mines you mentioned, I still want to drive along the Dalmatian coast with my fiancée one day soon. 😊
@@MeeesterBond17 Don't worry Dalmatian coast is clear of mines, problematic areas are in the interior along the border with Bosnia. I hope you have a great holiday :)
greetings from Zaporozhye, Ukraine. Thank you and your wonderful people, wonderful and beautiful country for the support you give us!
@@zeNoldor If only you had a President that actually LOVED his country instead of complaining he wasn't allowed at the grammys!!!! He is responsable for this mess and unless and until Ukrainians have the honesty within themselves to admit they were duped by Zelensky and tricked in fighting a war NO UKRAINIAN want, this conflict can go for quite a while! How many young men were sent to the battlefield that didn't even want to fight?!
The main resource Ukraine has lost that will never come back is all the people who have moved to the rest of Europe. When the war is over, the men will join their families in the EU countries. The war has lasted so long that the children have gotten used to the new countries they live in. They have a better life there, and they will not move back.
True this is rarely talked about in Europe. Probably because these nations themselves benefit from this growth. 🤐
That is a terrible thing. Almost as if the monster has won 😥
True. The kids will have been in school for years and the parents (mothers) will have jobs that earn a multiple of what they could get in Ukraine which, moreover, is largely destroyed... Old people may or may not return, but the young will stay in EU, for sure.
@@der110 This is true. It is uncomfortable to admit that most of the immigration from Ukraine is mostly beneficial to the host-countries, but detrimental to Ukraine long-term.
On the other hand, forcing children from immigrants to move back can be as world-shattering for the individual families as the forced evacuation caused by the war.
European countries should lay a path for families to transition back to Ukraine if they wish. But this will not be an easy issue.
Lol why not just to move аll people to Europe and give the territory to Russia?)
I think that Ukraine cutting labor protections in order to be more enticing for private investment is very much not a good thing.
Good for the USA used to the "you're fired" culture
Lol like Blackrock care
And the selling off of Public assets
@@KayGornallsWordMagicthey have to keep expanding their markets or they'll cease up
It isn't. But it's the least bad option.
If it could be done to western Europe after two world wars and Japan, it can be done again
Edit: thank you Mhjy, yes south Korea too!
No one did it to japan. Japan is the nation that in 30 40went to be closed to becoming modernized and defeating Russia and becoming a great power. Same for Germany. Even then some things can’t be rebuilt nazis destroyed german(prussian) university’s 70 year later still german university’s have not recovered to global rankings.
@@Myanmartiger921 true but Germany is still an industrial power house.
Exactly this!
@@thomastakesatollforthedark2231it was a powerhouse before ww2 same as Japan ....Ukraine was poor and horribly corrupt
@@thomastakesatollforthedark2231 Can't say if its still the truth.
Very interesting analysis, People in Ukraine hope that the worst is over only for things to get worse, just like Odesa which has been hit very very hard lately, destroying ukraines remaining port infrastructure.
Hi,
I think more significant still is the strikes on Reni, in the Romanian border. Odessa was already virtually useless since the war broke out. Those Danube River ports essentially were a lifeline to Ukraine, since they still had access to their trains (which have different gauges than in the West).
Thanks for the kind words :)
Cheers,
Hugo
This brings us to the 4th scenario, the one signalled by col Macgregor, if the war is prolonged: Russia reaching the border with Romania and Ukraine becomes a landlocked country.
@@mike42356yep. Nightmare situation for Erdoğan as much as him and Putin have been pragmatic in their various conflicts across the world this would be the straw that breaks the camels back.
@@joeylopez7978No one is saying anything about that. Ofcourse that Russians are gonna payback. Original comment just said that Odessa has been hit hard, not finding any excuses.....
@@joeylopez7978 What sick logic...
Somehow Germany survived after WW2, somehow Poland rose from the ashes, somehow all of Europe was rebuilt, stay strong Dear Ukraine, we all pray for you
We all? Nah 😂 Russia!!! 🤍💙❤💪
Germany was rebuilt by US, Poland was rebuilt by USSR (now they hate us), any other devastated country was rebuilt by some major power. No one needs strong Ukraine, the West only wants to destroy Russia
@@fitgirl8812 Russia is nice country before it got captured but the dictators putin/stalin/lenin since then this country is a 3 d world shit that terrorizes its own people and invades countries, weak country which wanna be USA but can't reach it and will never reach it cause weak as fuck and all it can do just threat smaller countries 😂
@@dimkuch9519 Nice piece of of western official propaganda )) Do more CNN and BBC )))
@@fitgirl8812seeing you support russia. I want to ask. Why? And dont try giving me the nazi stuff bs. Just a straight up. Honest answer
Unlike Korea or Japan, Ukraine's on a land border next to Western Europe. A lot of talented people in tech who speaks english. I believe Ukraine can bounce back. If Successive governments can shake the corruption that plagues post soviet states.
Yes, good luck with that.
Those talented people would be hired abroad and leave. To not have EU visas was a major point of getting into the trap that they are in now. Also, that's the power of money printing that only a few countries have - to buy most of the talent. People from Ukraine will live in another country, pay taxes there, provide to the economies there, all while telling stories of how they love their homeland.
The corruption level is horrific in Ukraine, they need the media to sweat blood to mask it up with next to no success. Anyone who gets the slightest idea of f makeing a change would end up bad....
Some will emigrate and resettle. But most will gain skills and come home. And create good jobs in Ukraine. Ukraine 🇺🇦 is slaying the corruption pattern as fast as possible. It’s a lovely country and rebuilding at peace ✌️
@@davidcpugh8743 tell me you've never been to Ukraine without telling me you've been to Ukraine lol. The whole shtick of that country for the last 30+ years was trying to find someone to pay for them. The plan now is to be on West's allowance, playing the victim card for the next 40 years or something. Hell, all that their president is doing is going on tours asking for money, while making an effort to convince people abroad that the people of Ukraine are "just like them". Damn, they have even legalised weed in Ukraine, what a progressive country lol, now give them some more of that sweet cash. Set some more biolabs, let Blackrock buy some more land, anything goes so that they don't have to work by themselves.
"Slaying corruption" lol, I remember when the oligarchs were killing each other in plain daylight in their power struggle just 5 years ago, good luck with that.
Really appreciate the topics you cover - I don't hear much on these outside of your channel!
More to come!
@@IntoEurope shame on you for spreading Russified EU propaganda
raymoo
@@siltdoctor3478 die-sækku queze?
Something everyone who can, would prefer not to think about, but it must be thought about, so thanks!
The problem with the investment route to rebuilding is that foreign investment is extremely good at creating wealth and then extracting most of it. It’s just replicating the problem of the oligarchs but with foreign oligarchs joining the party.
Yeah exactly that's why post soviet countries who joined EU are unlivable, those germans and americans are extracting every penny out of those economies and most people resort to begging on the street in rags, heartbreaking really
But seriously, have you ever seen a chart of GDP per capita for like Poland or Czechia in the last 30 years
@@freddekl1102 Poland didn't privatize as quickly or with as few protectionist policies as Russia and Ukraine did. It was also given near immediate access to the European market and forgiven the lion's share of its past debts.
This never happened for Ukraine and Russia, which dissolved into oligarchies.
Yes.....Ukraine will have to be very careful....there are many sharks about.
It requires a very steady hand by the government. Nationalise or regulate core exports f.ex. and not let "cowboy entrepreneurs" go free by corrupting politicians and administration.
Not easy, but possible if openess (press freedom) and democracy is maintained.
@@CrackCatWantsPat They were also heavily industrialized as a major port area and part of Baltic trade, and so started off in 1991 exporting refined oil and electronics rather than just agricultural products. It was never going to be a major source of cheap labor and raw goods... which is all the EU and its investors seem ready to see Ukraine as.
Love Ukraine from USA 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦
Love USA from Ukraine 🇺🇦 ❤🇺🇸
thank you 😘
Glory to USA🇺🇦🇺🇸
G-d bless our Countries!
God bless USA! Warm greetings from Ukraine ❤
Thank you for all your rupport and help!
in terms of rebuilding estimate - it already has been lowered since they started to "curl up" the country - cutting services to smaller settlements since they lost so may people and forecast for the future are also grim. It will likely end up with a country model similar to Argentina or Brazil - with few huge cities and enormous farms
The issue with dependence on private money for the purposes of rebuilding like you said is that Ukraine will need to highly "liberalize" its economy. The dependence on private money will simply reform the oligarchy they've already been having difficulties with (just different management), and the stripping of worker's rights and protections will only rob the Ukrainian people and land for all their resources. I'd highly recommend they minimize their requirement/future dependency on private investment as much as possible.
And when do expect get the money?
@@pedropalotes7638 I'm assuming you meant where do you expect. I'd argue the three following I think would be the most justified.
1.) Selling of all seized Russian assets
2.) Direct loans from the US & EU (United States did this after WWII, it was called the Marshal plan, worked out decently)
3.) Russian Reparations (keep it just under the amount the Russian economy is losing from sanctions, so a payment of reparations means the removal of sanctions)
Personally I think these are the best avenues for long term prosperity. We've seen aid before, during and after a war in Europe help to keep out Russian influence while not inherently stripping worker's rights, or democratic practices through the means of over privatization. Privatization is always a dangerous move for workers rights and democratic practices.
@@angelahornung8488 the three following have lots of problems.
1.- The russian assets are mainly in EU banks and EU laws only let you seize them (now they are frozen) if EU is at war against Russia, do you see the french or german government (the main of the assets are in their banks) declaring war against Russia? I dont
2.- EU economy has enough problems to make new loans, EU Comission told Spain to cut government's budget in 22.000 million euro, what do you think will happen in countries that have to make cuts in the budget when is published they are loaning money to Ukraine? In Germany AfD has grown a lot, since this war begun.
3.- Sanctions arent really hurting so much as our media and our politicians says as Russia has hadnt problems to find other markets and as EU countries continue to buy from Russia, France and Spain were last years'main buyers from russian LNG
5:42 Lol, are you serious here? The total population of Siberia is only 33 million, how do you imagine squeezing 3% more in a matter of several months into it without causing a massive unrest?
I really hope for a war economic miracle for Ukraine. 🤗
wirtschaftswunder
Pray for the Ukraine's existence , instead.
Lol, they might not even exist after this.
@@eliasziad7864 Same could happen to Russia. What's your point exactly.
@@adlerzwei Same could happen to U.S.A and E.U.
The captions need some work (Nova Scotia Dam 💀), but overall, great video! I truly hope that Ukraine can rebuild itself soon. Even before the war, they were already the poorest country in Europe, which is sad considering their massive potential.
Most realistic scenario: Russia gets to occupy almost half of Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine becomes the home of thousands of refugees. Kiev becomes a major modern city but a very unequal one as well. The rest remains the same
Kyiv is already a large modern city. No one will give Russia further to occupy anything.
Is rebuilding europe after ww2 even possible? yes ofc and if thats possible, this certainly is aswell..
😂
You omitted the ongoing climate collapse.
Not so easy
@@toyotaprius79 I didnt omitt anything, i dont think you comprehend how badly the climate and enviroment was screwed up in Europe after the war either.
@@alexanderrose1556 Question is not in can or cannot, but rather what for? Ofc european banks can print out trillions of euros and entice european business to build Ukraine up, but whether it wants to or not will depend on their interests, not Ukraines.
Let me repeat - Ukraine's bright(!) future is no matter of interest to anyone beside the ukrainians. Other powers are taking part in this conflict with their personal interests in mind.
The population of Europe after WW2 did not practically halve along with the fertility rate being significantly below replacement. Key difference and problem to tackle, I feel.
I think there's certainly scope for some large marshall plan esque recovery loans from the EU and further afield. It would be more politically palatable than grants, and it would give the EU an interest in growing the Ukrainian economy since then they would be able to pay them back, even if it took until 2100.
Fuck that. Everyone is suffering it is not politically palatable.
Far better for the UN to tackle it.
You forgot the conditionality of those loans where Ukraine is already selling off public assets.
That kind of growing economy?
And be honest to yourself, with this current climate collapse and systemic oil/profit driven inaction toward demise, there would not be a 2100
@@toyotaprius79 There's no need for conditionality. Very low interest rates mean they could take their time paying them off, much like western Europe did with their marshall loans. It's not supposed to be a debt trap. In fact the low interest rates are kind of indirect grant since they'll likely trail inflation.
And with that attitude the marshall plan shouldn't have been done because some people thought we'd all perish in nuclear hellfire before 1980.
I was reluctant to explore the bad news affecting Ukraine (initially resistant based upon your title). But I'm glad I did. This is a very thoughtful analysis I could not have gotten elsewhere, and now I've found a new relevant and trustworthy channel to watch. Your rational, yet emotional, delivery is engaging. Thanks for all your hard work!
Thank you for the video. We face numerous existential problems in Ukraine, but I hold an optimistic view on demographics. From my experience living abroad for three years, I predict a strong desire among Ukrainians to return. I believe around 60-70% of those who left will come back after the war ends. The outcome will depend on the format of the war's resolution, but Ukraine has succeeded in cultivating internal soft power and a sense of belonging to something greater than oneself and one's family over the past 30 years.
The main issue is the level at which the west helps Urkaine. With this current "keep Ukraine alive" levels we pay huge cost in human lives
Most of the millions who left the country since february 2022 won't come back in Ukraine to live. MOst of themm were already dreaming about leaving the country enven before the war started. After this war the most economically viable part of Ukraine will be under the russian side. The country will be spiritually broken as it's economy.
I would not be that hopefull.. We had few migration waves in Poland, many people left and have never came back, even if we are currently safe and have strong economy.
People just settled somewhere else and are happy with their life. Who would come back to completly devastated city?? Without work, schools and so on... Only old stubborn folks.
Mostly women left and many of them since the war started settled, found boyfriends and surely some married. Many women lost husbands, what they have to come back for? Also many came back from Poland. 5 million Ukrainians also live in Russia. Likelihood is more will go to Russia. The thing is, many people speak only Russian. If they are engineers or teachers, lawyers, they do not want to go to Romania or UK in their 50s and start earning new language. Would you? It takes your career back and some people hate speaking another language. Russian language is also very specific. It is very hard for them to speak without an accent and they know they are being mocked for it. Maybe but easier for Ukrainian speakers.
Ukrainians are bilingual. no normal Ukrainian wants to go to Russia. many people were forcibly taken there, children for example. Someone was able to get out of there @@olivka7560
All is possible, when people want it to be possible.
Emm Russia doesn't occupy 50% of Ukraine... it is even visible on the map. It is at max I think 20-25%.
the subtitles were likely simply generated, in the video I think the guy says 15%
Yes but the most important parts are under russian controll. Crimea has Oil and a port while donbass has also Oil and good soil
Name me any country that was massivelly rebuilt by the West after 2001?
Based on fertility rates, Ukraine might just become the next South Korea, but not in the way it wants...
Without youth, wealth generation becomes an unproven hypothesis. You can not project wealth without people who will work, consume, sustain a country and, in time, have more children. Europe is ageing and its main source of youth is people who has increasing difficulty integrating, let alone many don't have the required skills (as millions are refugees without special qualifications).
Ukraine may be repopulated by African migrants who will be all too glad and proud to rebuild a real European country!
@@Slavianophile Lol, they will instantly leave to Germany my friend, like thousands already did from Poland Slovakia, Hungary etc.
@@Slavianophileтак не зрозумів
@@Slavianophile 😂Oh they will alright, unless they're gonna turn it into a third world shithole like they have back home
@@Slavianophile Ось же зрада
Russia will never allow that Ukraine will join eu/nato which is Russia's biggest enemy sitting right on its border. If Ukraine is in eu/nato, then you will have neverending wars forever.
EU and NATO are different things.
Of courrse I know, my country is a member of both. but do you know why NATO was formed and by who?
Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore, but NATO stayed, plus instead of Soviet Union, you now have European Union which if you look at it closely it is a hidden communism under 'democracy' umbrella.
@@fastertoveu stupid? OP means the EU or NATO
@@papierbak Yeah, you are right, my language was too harsh.
@@nightcitymusic1 Not sure you understand what communism is, if you think that.
Reconstruction of Ukraine 🇺🇦, if it is completed, will take years, as the country's infrastructure is in shambles. And let's not kid ourselves, the best piece of the Ukrainian pie will go to American companies. On the other hand, until Ukraine can join the EU 🇪🇺 it will also take years, since it has to make many legal and economic reforms; in addition, the EU will have to make a huge outlay of money in cohesion funds, which will surely be a problem for the EU coffers.
Americans will focus on selling arms (+ probably permanent military base) and probably gas/oil in the black sea, maybe even a nuclear power plant .... There is a reason it was french companies who built the sarcophagus around Chernobyl a few years ago, the US is just too far (not to mention they don't even use the metric system)
@@trthib US based Agrotech and big agri-business companies are buying land in Ukraine for decades now, when prices were stable. Now just imagine the cost of land which is ridden with mines and explosives and will be unproductive till decades more !
Energy & Electricity, Mineral & hydrocarbon, food and farming, IT & Services sectors already have huge US based companies present. It's the Iraq-Cargill-Haliburton saga all over again. UK as usual will get to lick the bones and chew on the crumbs. EU based companies will have some subcontract at best but simply will not have enough political capital in Kyiv to win anything more substantial.
Bigger worry should be the EU's capacity to finance long term reconstruction considering the mountain of debt due to the COVID and Energy crisis. Slow growth and borderline recession on some countries like Germany will only add to the woe.
@@trthib only US has the money to actually fund a reconstruction just as it is American military aid keeping Ukraine fighting.
Assuming Russia doesnt defeat ukraine and turn it into a rump state.
So Ukraine will become a US protectorate. So much for inependence.
Why won't we rebuild Europe first. Eastern and some middle European countries still look like 1960. If we would take care of our problems first than taking care of other's problems wouldn't be a debate.
You continue to support Russia further in order to continue to beg for help instead of becoming a European country.
hello from Ukraine
@@zeNoldor I'm begging for help? What about Ukraine your home country BEGGING for our BILLIONS of our money and BEGGING for F-16. Btw my friend couldnt go to the dormatory because you dirty Ukrainians are living there. Start making peace you warmongers.
This whole war is such a depressing story man, and Im not even affected by like the people of Ukraine. Sure Im in the EU and total victory would benefit all of us, but Im not the one fighting a much larger country who invaded and basically crippled an already stagnant economy with a declining population whose rate has been significantly accelerated....
You left out the 4th scenario: Russia either directly or indirectly controls all of Ukraine. Somehow, most people in the West (I am an American just to be clear) can't grasp that Russia is a superpower and it is not going away. Ukraine is a third rate power, and only still exists because 30 NATO countries have sent an almost unlimited amount of weapons to it. (and the US pays its bills to run its government). Ukraine has gotten nothing out of its current offensive, except probably 30,000 more dead soldiers and a battlefield littered with burnt hunks of twisted metal that were supposedly NATO game changing weapons (there are videos of this all over RUclips for anyone who wants to see them). Moreover, NATO is running out of shells to send Ukraine. What happens then?
It's probably cause Russia isn't a superpower. Not unless you completely change the definition of superpower. And since I don't live under "Russian reality", I use the sane definition.
Moreover, NATO's entire reserve was exausted by the hundred or so artillery systems we sent Ukraine, you say? And to make it worse, Russia destroyed ALL of them almost immediately, they barelly got a chance to fire!
Damn, I had no idea our reserves were down to the last two dozen shells. Our evil American overlords really screwed the pooch on that one.
More then that the conflict in Niger may approach, it is more improtant country for EU, then Ukraine, because it gives up to 30% of uranium for nuclear power stations, and france depends on that energy for 70%. I wonder if ukraine will get the same support when resources will be needed in Africa?
That is no longer anywhere near a scenario. No matter how hard Russia tries, it will not be accepted by ukrainians. Russia is a superimpotentpower, that only grows weker day by day. As for offensive, you clearly have no clue as to what is going on there... Just you wait, and you will see Russian collapse.
There is no way for Russia to become any stronger then it is. Mobilisation? Main russian problems are logistics, intelligence, comand, morale, training and technical degradation. None of those problems are solved by mobilisation and most are made worse.
Now think about all the thing ukraine didn't get yet, form F-16 to ATACMS. There is a way to grow.
And USA found a simple solution to shells problem. They simply sent cluster municions, those are not close to running out.
@basiledex2164 Ah yes... but "reality" is alternative... The same, where it was promised Ukraine would fall in three days 🤣
@basiledex2164 ruclips.net/video/p5AO7OvIDsM/видео.html Here, all the Russian propaganda promising victory in 3 days.
As a Irish person, I would love to see Ukraine as part of the EU. However, I don't like the prospect of having less representation when we're actively paying towards Ukraine's rejuvenation. I just don't think that EU representation should be based off of population because that weakens richer countries like Ireland who pay more but receive less.
@@xunqianbaidu6917 I’m talking about EU finances, Ireland gives more than it receives
Thank you dear Ireland
One thing to remember is that the400-500 billion number would be spread out over many years, probably decades. They wouldn't need it all at once.
2-3 years . The /day The war IS over construcción Will begin
THE OLIGARCHS ARE SALIVATING
I'm really curious how many Europeans knew where Ukraine is before 2022. And how the statistics would be before 2014.
I think between the drive of the people and the help they are getting they will rebuild faster then many think, war is terrable in a lot of ways but as we have seen it pulls a society together the people that are still there want to be there and want to see there country flourish again
Flourish again? And when exactly did it "flourish" before?
@@rob6927 I’d say before Moscow tried to suck it dry? In the Soviet Union it was full of factories producing a large about of ships tanks etc, if it was already free it would have been rich but Moscow took it for potato’s and now that they are somewhat free, they have huge grain exports, huge gas and oil deposits in its territory, and still have a large manufacturing infrastructure
@@codyponto8403 What? 😂
So then you are basically saying that it was "flourishing" when it was actually under Moscow's rule?😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂
@@rob6927 wow Someone can’t read
@@codyponto8403 Well, only a 🤡 can say "in the Soviet union it was full of factories etc..." and who was in charge of the SU?
I get the feeling that Ukraine could be a real economic regional power if the post-war period is managed well. All the building blocks are there, it'll just take massive western investment akin to Germany after WW2
It won’t be managed well. It’ll turn out very similarly to Iraq in my opinion.
@@slimdiddyd But if they're an EU and potentially a NATO member I think it'll be an entirely different story
@@Bille994 they won’t be. The US state department has no intentions of actually honoring the promises made. The goal of the US in particular in supplying Ukraine is pretty much exclusively to weaken Russia in a cheaper fashion than a direct conflict with them. I actually don’t believe the US government even wants the war to end at all, with the way supplies have been drip fed instead of merely opening the floodgates at the outset.
agreed! an impressive, resourceful and resilient people
The Ukraine has many issues which will take decades to resolve. But yeah, granting them candidate status, cooperating and working together to eventually have them in the EU would be the best way forward. They need a real perspective (a future) and we could make use of their multiple dormant Ressources.
Biggest issue is the general aging and demographic issues in the west meaning no to low growth economies. Frankly, theres a real probability that there just won't be enough (money) to go around.
Very interesting.
This topic is rarely talked about but is critical
At 8:58 I believe map with recipient states is incorrect, spain, belgium and luxemburg are all recipients as well
Na Ukrainie jest taki poziom korupcji, że to się nie zdarzy. U mnie na polu dziś pracowało dorywczo dwóch Ukraińców. Powinni być w okopach na Zaporożu. Śmieją się z tych co walczą na Ukrainie. Kupili sobie po aucie - BMW i jeżdżą po okolicznych dyskotekach wkurwiając miejscowych.
It ain’t going to happen, it’s taken 70 years to get Poland in a decent state with huge German and EU investment. We are not that rich anymore and sadly corporations will take advantage of all the sectors (resources) where money can be easily made.
But Poland is receiving investments only for 30 years?
my new favorite geopolitical creator
To be rebuilt, Ukraine should be in NATO. Without it almost nobody would be eager to invest in it
Yes. Keep sending the billions.
Exactly
But in weapons... 💀
14 minutes of water
Ukraine is one of the few countries in the world that can live without fossil resources.
Greetings from Ukraine! Really grateful for your thoughtful coverage of this topic, just wanted to flag a couple factual errors that immediately stuck out to me, for the sake of future improvement. You display Rinat Akhmetov's name incorrectly, using just his surname and patronymic, which is never practised in Ukraine. Also, the Lugano conference happened during the fifth month of the full-scale war.
всю незалежноссть запад выводил деньги из украины и рассказывал что это олигархи, а теперь папуасы дякуют ему за то что он их на мясо отправляет ))
@@asd99579Het Ivan! I thought you were English! Speak English, Spanish, French or Ukrainian on our damn technology. And shut up no one asked you bot.
And we thank you my brave friend
Where have large number of war refugees accepted into rich countries ever "come back" to their post-war destroyed homelands?
You are correct unfortunately. Even before war Ukraine was losing people due to net migration. Now with so many men lost to war, we will probably see something like post war Germany where a lot of foreign males will move in and settle in whatever will be post war Ukraine. My guess is a lot of immigration from the middle east(poorer regions) and South Asia.
@@linkme2dnet thats a bit... dramatic, Italy in WW2 was facing a migration net loss prior to WW2, and after WW2, with a decently middle aged population, Italy did eventually see millions of Italians eventually returning in Net numbers by the 1960s. SO its a tough situation but wars have a unique affect on people, especially in regard to Migrations.
@@linkme2dnet apologies tagged the wrong guy
@@commiemeth Italy continued suffering negative net migration, up to today, in fact, if you are talking of ethnic Italians...
@@FOLIPE as an Tuscan myself, I partially do yes mean that, I'm not gonna get into immigration matters of the last 35 years but , my point is people do come back home
Awesome video! Very insightful, albeit slightly worrisome. It teaches me to think in scenarios rather than just jumping to conclusions. I feel very very sorry for all those Ukrainian people of good will who just want to live their lives in a stable, free prosperous country. (which actually goes for their prosecuted Russian and Belorussian counterparts as well) These are strange times, war times, ominous times. Administrations like Putin's do not help making the world a better place.
Russia can hold its new borders for a very long time, it's just banal that it has more army and resources. If there is no agreement, there will simply be the same shelling of Donetsk as in 2014
I think the best option for Ukraine would be peace on Russia's terms. Russia is only interested in territories with a large Russian-speaking population. Thus, Russia may be interested only in Transnistria, the situation with which can be solved much easier diplomatically, by returning the inhabitants to Russia or giving up the entire territory of Transnistria.
@@sptrco Well, if you judge like that, then the goals of the war were not Transnistria, it seems that no one is pressing on them, just a small piece of the micro country of Transnistria
@@landate1 I follow the situation in Transnistria and Moldova. Transnistria rebelled because it did not support the pro-Western orientation of the Moldovan authorities. And now the situation is getting worse due to the reduction in the number of Russian diplomats and the pumping of Moldova with American weapons.
So I consider it important for Russia to reach the borders of Transnistria to deter Moldova or Ukraine from possible encroachments on the territory with Russian peacekeepers and Russian people
what encroachments, fascist creature, are you talking about?!!!@@sptrco
I love your channel, man. Keep up with the good work
Nice video, thank you!
The only thing to add, as a Ukrainian: we had an illusion in 2014, after the Crimea occupation, that it may be possible to negotiate with Russia to come up with some agreement or a status quo at least. Now, in 2023, it's obviously that Russia don't want that and never wanted. Therefore, "peace in a current lines" = "give Russia a time to recover and to continue its invasion in an upcoming years". So mid term it'd be more similar to an "endless war" scenario
Yeah only downside is that ukraine would only have the manpower to continue this war for 2 more years at maximum...
The one that never wanted a peaceful agreement were Ukranie. Even fucking Merkel admitted Minsk agreements were a fake to bait Russia.
There was an agreement. Minsk agreements. Ukraine violated it.
@@daniser87 russia violated it first but go on i guess
@@pumpknight8539 which clause?
Detachement from the reality of this video is mind boggling. US exported their Industries to Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea to build a bulwark towards Russia and China. There is nothing more to export. The social conditions in the US are such that they are bringing it back from the clients. Ukraine is intended to be a wasteland between two centers of surplus production thus preventing a greater Eurasian prosperity and a challenge to the hegemony.
Great video.
The war needs to be won first but the EU should have a comprehensive strategy strategy for rebuilding (including membership) in place for when the day finally comes
@marksimpson4215 you mean just be a Russian puppet state. NEUTRALITY IS THE PIPE DREAM NOTION since 2014.
You lost me at 'Ukraine would cease territories' suggestion. Ridiculous.
I have a question. Who is subsidizing Belarus? Belarus is under sanctions since 90es.
No mentioning that Ukraine achieved to be one of the most corrupt states in the world LATELY after a lot supposedly helping to perform ukranian economy better europe inspired reforms.
Extremely poorly researched material, dislike.
Hi,
Russia is subsidizing Belarus :) All that raw petroleum that Belarus magically gets to process is its own form of subsidy. Plus many loans.
I do mention corruption in Ukraine multiple times.
Bye,
Hugo
Good summary 👍
Thank you 😊
Glad you liked it!
They had to comply with the Minsk agreements, that's all.
If a country violates a peace treaty, what can happen other than war?
Interestion how everything went downwards after the Sovjet Union 1:13 and decades later it still lives on what the Sovjet Union left behind 3:10
Yet the USSR is always depicted as a faliure and capitalism the supposed way out of misery...
Suddenly we act like Ukrainian isn’t corrupt
Sadly for Ukraine, it's easy for Russia to engage in the war for many years (also at a low-level intensity) to inhibit accession for the EU and NATO effectively. In some way, the EU and NATO must find an innovative solution to solve the expected deadlock situation and enable Ukraine to develop into a prosperous country despite its aggressive neighbor.
Noticed several things that are wrong here - the easy one is in the names of the Ukraine oligarchs, AKHMETOV LEONIDOVICH is quite wrong, the persons name is Rinat Akhmetov, Leonidovych being his surname. And the second one that kinda ticked off for being factually wrong - Russia never shelled Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, it was taken without much hassle in March 2022 and only military that did shell it was Ukraine. Unless you go into rigid propaganda that Russia shells itself, which is just ridiculous. Same level of idiocy as Ukrainian mainstream media in 2014-2022 that claimed that explosions in Donetsk were "air conditioners exploding" or russians shelling themselves, but definitely not ukrainian army shelling civilians.
I'm sorry Ukrainians but for these next election I'm voting for whoever promises to stop dumping money to Ukraine. We have to focus on our problems.
If you’re American that means republicans.. but I can promise you unless you’re a billionaire the democrats are the better option…
see you in a bunker when it'll become a world war then. when they say Ukraine is a living shield they mean it
It is interesting that as a Soviet republic Ukraine accumulated a huge economic potential - it was perhaps the best developed Soviet republic - but as soon as it became independent it began to lose that potential. Huge numbers of Ukrainians had to go to Russian to earn money. And, of course, to Poland and other Western countries. I wonder why independence lead to a degradation of Ukraine's economy? Belarus, fared much better.
There is one quite simple answer: oil and gas, which I think explains a large part of this phenomenon. Russia's budget is based off petroleum exports, while Belarus is for a large part subsidized by Russian oil and gas exports as well (it is bascially a refining station for Russian petroleum goods).
Ukraine's own gas fields have yet to be exploited.
Cheers,
Hugo
It wasnt its gdp was a fraction to that of the rfsr
Because in Ukraine there are too many populists of politicians, corrupt officials. People in Ukraine are too gullible and do not have critical thinking. Who will talk to the Western standard of living is popular until there is someone who lies even more beautiful.
First prizident of Ukraine Kravchuk: Ukraine will be the new Switzerland- 90e
President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko: Our place in the European Union.- early 2000s
Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk: new Marshal's plan - 2014
..the story continues
@@IntoEurope It still doesn't really explain how they missed out on so much potential. Russia, along with gas and oil, took over all the debt obligations of the Soviet Union. Ukraine had nothing of the sort. Even the Baltic countries, which had no resources at all, did better and preserved part of the industrial heritage.
@@NordskaDude, he is delusional. Ukranian state is very bad governed and is extremly corrupt.
Also the country has suffered a brutal depopulation decline, in 1991 there was like 50M, before war there was no much more than 35M, and now much much better. Add the 6 million Ukranians that moved to EU, the 5 million that moved to Russia, all the ones that live in the current Russian occuppied territories (Donetsk was the rich part of the country btw). And all the young men killed and wounded incapable of work, who will surpass easy the one million combined.
I am pessimistic with Spain, Italy or France, imagine Ukranie... (Long term).
If this thing will go no for a bit longer the Europe will go bust itself with little chance helping Ukraine in the future. The hope of Russia paying the bill is wishful and the more time is passing is delusional.
So many things wrong with this video:
1. The has been no confirmation Russia destroyed the Nova kakhova dam. All you have is Kiev's words
2. Why would Russia shell the Zaporyhze nuclear power plant? They control it
3. Ukraine's pre war GDP per capita is lower than Iraq's. Actual, literal war-torn, Iraq had a higher GDP per capita than Ukraine
4. Also Demographic collapse is Ukraine's greatest risk. They entered this war with a lower GDP per capita than an actual war-torn hell hole, their economy's been devastated, millions have fled the country. this means Ukraine's most probable future is: fucked.
Western Backed Ukraine is more like North Korea than South Korea. And Norh Koea is probably a better place at the moment.
Speaking as an economist and manager of an investment fund, this gentleman is well worth heeding.
Thank you very much!
Fun Fact: It was Ukraine and Russia who saved The Union during the American Civil War as they sent their Navy to San Francisco and New York when England and France were just about to enter the war on the side of the Confederates since London created the Confederates. France was already in Mexico making a spear head movement to resupply the Confederates and to open up a Pacific Theatre and create a port in California. England already amassed 11,000 troops stationed at their Northern Confederacies border now called Canada ready to open a Northern Theatre then to attack The Unions naval blockade. The Union would have been completely destroyed and annexed by those two great powers leaving the Confederates to exist as a puppet state of London.
Tsar Alexander wrote a letter to Queen Victoria saying “If you enter in this war it will be a casus belli for all out war with the Russian Empire”. The stage was set for the 1st World War and Russia stopped it.
Fun Fact: there was no Ukraine before Soviets))
Ukraine did not exist then as a nation...
originally it was kievian Rus that was
The most important question is if Ukraine can beat its corruption.
Believe me, it can. The dynamics during the last few years is very positive and now during the war it's 3x, society wants to get rid of it very much, the problem is the corrupt judges. It's very hard to reform those, cause they are independent and basically outlawed. Once that's settled corruption will be nulled. Each case of corruption is widely discussed through public and makes people very angry. Ukraine now and 10 years ago are two different countries.
@@ОлекСандр-у7о1ж Indeed. In other hand is veterans who fighting not for corrupted shit in suits. I believe soldiers will make them afraid to steal money. There's many questions to politicans right now, but there's an bigger enemy in the frontline so we can't do anything.
@basiledex2164 check your sources, it's russian propaganda, you dambass
How specifically do you envision the most optimistic scenario? Even if it is possible to return the territories to the borders of 91, the war will not end, Russia will withdraw, accumulate forces and the war will continue until it runs out of human resources.
What could motivate Russia to sign a peace treaty? I have no idea.
Sanctions had to destroy Russian economics and its ability to wage this war. So far ukrainians do better on battlefield than western economists on their front. maybe just invest in long range weapons for Ukraine instead and it will be over much sooner with less damage
No ! Because Ukraine has become like Afghanistan of Europe
You don't know what you're talking about 😂 Ukraine before the war was safer than streets of Bengal.
Now the West is semi-calm and a year or two after the war the East will be as well.
@@ohajohaha nobody’s got the money in abundance for a hopeless nation please understand, Ukraine failed to deliver what west wanted besides Ukraine’s top leadership is corrupted.
Ukraine is not any better than Pakistan
Ukraine’s fate lies with RUSSIA
I mean hell I would invest in Ukraine post the war. Its a lifetime opportunity to help finance growth but also profit from its success.
Thanks for such a detailed and unbiased video about my country. All my family has stayed in Ukraine: we work, donate as much as we can, husbands and brothers defend against "zombies". It's hard, especially morally - but we have no other choice but to fight the biggest evil.
“Fight the biggest evil”
*Soldiers use actual Nazi simbols to fight “evil”*
@basiledex2164 HAHAHAHAHHA why so pathetic “bandy whiner”. got anything else to say?
@basiledex2164 are you Ruzzian? Only they are so stupid.
Reality lost you, bandy something. Well, bandy nothing actually.
@basiledex2164 goofy ass comment
@basiledex2164 based
History shows how reconstructing after a war creates gigantic economic opportunities.
We called it "postwar economic boom" for a reason.
Althogh is very basic, it's important to understand that money circulates, so "spending money" doesn't mean you burn it.
That money goes into another person's pockets.
Reconstructing a city mean having money flowing to companies, workers, taxes and back to the State in a fast cycle, which is very good for economy itself.
That's only if you're spending your own money. Ukraine will be borrowing heavily and those debts will be an extreme burden
@@SA2004YG
They don't need any charity.
They have all the resources and the partners to make good deals.
Also, one thing is when you borrow money and you spend it as you wish, another thing is when you plan something and there is a control from the entity who is lending money.
Let me translate this.
If the EU will send money there won't be oligarchs making it disappear.
Trust me, I know, I'm italian and every cent that comes from the EU is scrutinized, every project approved and followed.
This could be a unique opportunity to get rid of oligarchs in Ukraine, because we all know there are.
Italy is one of the most corrupt countrys in the world!
The ""spending money" doesn't mean you burn it" is a flawed way of looking at it, this is how inflation happens. Money actualy represents something, and that is human labour. If you spend money you buy labour that can not be bought by anoyone else ever again. So if you spend 300 mil on a stupid yacht, that is 300 milion worth of production that won't go to education, food, or any other basic human need.
That being said, rebuilding Ukraine is obviously worth it because it is an investment in a significant increase in future production.
I mean why wouldn't it be possible? Rebuilding wartorn countries isn't a new concept in the west.
The US flattened Japan's cities during WW2, it is surprising just how much can be rebuilt with the right motivations.
Yes, but Japan was a major superpower before its surrender in 1945-colonizing many Asian nations such as Korea and China. The fall of Japan was overshadowed by the emergence of communism and the onset of the Korean War. I personally don't think Ukraine has that kind of luck.
the next money farm for blackrock
Bro is actually saying that Russia blew up the dam lmao
Yeah, because they did?
@@h2643 Own dam like own Nord Streams, huh?)
@@h2643The Ukrainians did it as a defense measure
@@tenshimx2163 except the russians were there at the time and they mined the dam. Not hard to look for proof. You don't have to tell me as a ukrainian what to believe in, either
@@h2643 It was Ukraine themselves who did that
Russia won't allow that. Ukraine will not be Ukraine.
I hope people realize that having Ukraine in the Common Market will be extremely beneficial in the coming decades, so should be of high priority. As climate change continues to get worse, adding a large food producer like Ukraine will grant us an extra level of security as food will become an actual issue that Europeans have to deal with. So even from an egoistic perspective it's good, I would almost say vital, for us to help Ukraine and add them to the fold.
1 trillion euros over the course of a decade or so is not even really a huge deal for let's say OECD, or EU+US, or whatever coalition of rich countries you want to think of. I mean yes, it's a lot, but it's not impossible by any means. If I counted right it would be about 1-2% of US federal budget if they do it alone, which they won't, others will help as well. It's expensive but doable, and that's using the pessimistic number for the total cost.
How did you do your calculations?
It's quite doubtful that the way our economies are going there is going to be a trillion+ spare to give out, also keep in mind the amount is just getting higher the longer the war continues.
@@rob6927 I mean 2% is still quite a large amount, you'd have to deprioritize something else, but my point is that it's possible.
Basically, the calculation was:
The US federal budget (expenditure, they're deficit spending) is about $6 trillion per year (according to Wikipedia). (These days 1$=1€ more or less.) So in 10 years (arbitrary time period) that's 60 trillion. 1 trillion is somewhere between 1-2% of that.
For comparison the German federal budget is about €300 billion per year. So if we take for example all of the OECD, you see what I mean that it wouldn't be a massive problem.
@@xway2 As if it was that easy. Good luck with finding a trillion dollars in the current economy. And also the longer the war keeps going, the amount needed rises as well...
I don't see how any of this could end well for Ukraine.
Most likely the "help" they will get will only be getting some kind of visa program to work in the West.
@@rob6927 I mean I agree, I don't think it will happen. It's just that I think it would be good to help them fully, even from an egoistic perspective (at least for the EU), and it would theoretically be possible if there is the political will to do it. Just like a lot of countries (mine included) are now finding the money to start spending 2% GDP (which is like ~6-10%+ budget) on military. Large reassignments of the budget are possible if we just decide to do it.
@@xway2 Well, after the "help" they got so far they probably won't exist after this is finished 🤷🏻
I enjoy your style, thank you!
I appreciate that!
Blackrock, Vanguard are happy with this war. ❤️❤️❤️
1) There's far more than 8 million refugees right now. About 10-14 million, 2 of which are in Russia. No one knows the exact number left within occupied regions (except for Crimea, but Ukraine itself doesn't recognize it's people as Ukrainian). I have a friend in Donbass and he says that he doesn't want to leave the city, simple as that, despite Russia providing an open corridor to migrate anywhere you want trough Russia or stay in Russia. And the number of refugees grows by this day
2) Demographic collapse was there ever since the fall of USSR, losing 250--400k people a year
3) Unless you forcefully make refugees go back after the war, only 25% will return at best. Moving to western countries is, pretty much, an "American dream" for many within Russia and Ukraine
4) The reason why the numbers needed for reconstruction are so much different on the sides of West and Ukraine is because it's in no one's interest to have a "strong" Ukraine. Extracting resources and agriculture? - yeah. Being a competitor to Germany, France, UK, US and Poland? - no
5) South Korea is a kind of country you wouldn't like to live in. It's pretty much Cyberpunk dystopia without futuristic elements
6) If Ukraine is forced to give up the land it would mean even higher price for restoring the economy due to Zaporoaksjdhaskjhd nuclear power plant and the occupied land being the industrial base of Ukraine
7) At the moment demands for peace by both Russia and Ukraine are basically admitting "complete defeat" for the other side. Due to that, it's cheaper for Russia to actually nuke Ukraine and achieve a "bitter victory" and would pretty much admit that they've lost on the ground, destroy their reputation. Unless either side becomes realistic (or hopefully both), it won't end until one side will get decimated
8) Ukraine's GDP wouldn't be able to sustain the price of restoration project, it would quite literally mean giving up sovereignty if it's given as a loan
9) Corruption isn't something that can be eliminated just because you want to do so, especially on the level of Russia or Ukraine. Unless EU is willing to close eyes on that corruption, Ukraine will have to wait for decades for it to vanish since it was built on top of it, once again, like Russia. However, if Ukraine would be forced to wait, the accumulation of damage could potentially cripple the state. The other way is to disregard the human rights and use far right groups to fight the oligarchs, but you know where it goes and how welcoming EU will be afterwards
10) This conflict was originally born from the conflict between Ukrainian and Russian oligarchs. Ukrainian side was forcing Russian one to give up businesses within the Ukraine for dirt-cheap (like Russia does to western ones from time to time right now) and security concerns. Ukraine was paranoid because of Russian influence and having a large Russian diaspora within it's east and south (like, even people in Kyiv would speak Russian at least 50% of all times) and that Russian diaspora is, well, pro-Russian. There's a saying that "the further away from Russia a Russian is, the more pro-Russia they are" and that was absolutely the case for Ukraine, so pro-western part would do quite unpopular policies in the Eastern and South parts to go further away from Russia, including a goal to join NATO. Meanwhile, while Russia could give up Ukraine to EU and even use it as a doorway to EU's markets/goods due to Ukrainian corruption, they cannot allow NATO to completely block them from the West and with the pro-western Ukraine parties being the leaders, Germany would've ended up as the only somehow reliable partner but even that would have it's limits. Due to that Russia had tried to pull of soft (for example, Nordstream 2 - a project Ukraine was complaining A LOT because it would render their route as pointless) threats and then a hard one, the results of which we see now
P.S. I honestly have no idea why exactly did Putin break his promise of just conducting training on Ukraine's border (because he's knows as the guy who never breaks his promises in the international field (he does it like breathing in the internal one)) and even mocking the West for false accusations of the upcoming invasion afterwards. No one really believes into biolab reason he gave because, well, even Russians won't trust a Russian state TVs. Nazi problem, while it exist and is, in fact, severe in Ukraine, in a nice side-reason to have, but it can't be the actual reason for an invasion and Russia never even demanded renaming Bandera streets, demolishing nazi memorials or naming OUN into a extremist organisation. While even my grandfather and his father were affected by Bandera's mobs and I feel quite uneasy about Ukraine treating him as a hero, no way I... or anyone with a brain would buy that reason for an invasion. Which leaves us with a question what exactly happened on the day of the invasion. Hopefully, soon we'll know and the culprits will be punished, no matter who they are. But of course, it's just a wishful thinking and the truth might end up buried in the achieves.
Russian speakers and russians are not the same. Ukrainian russian speakers mostly pro-ukrainian. Even not all ukrainian russians are pro-russia or fans of putin.
This has become a war against dollar at this point, on multiple fronts. And Russia, since Georgia 2008 doesnt trust the West (USA and UK, because the other has no voice).
yes it is, it will need a good planning, workplaces generation reconstruction has to provide jobs for that
Instant *_UNDERRATED CHANNEL_* warning. ;-)
There is little doubt that the US which has a rich experience in rebuilding war-torn countries like Iraq and Afghanistan will rebuid Ukraine as successfully. Or even more so.
Oh the Irony.
they hurt trade unions to be better for investors? I hate this world sometimes.
The longer they choose to continue this hopeless fight against Russia, the more of the country Blackrock will own.
Yeah, the sad truth is that private corporations flock to wherever they can exploit workers the hardest. I think this might backfire and turn more workers to leave or stay in the EU though.
The most positive thing could be a temporary worker export like Poland have done for the last decades. Where workers work abroad, but use their money back home until the quality and pay for work in their home country becomes comparable.
This will force corporations to pay decent wages and give freedom for their workforce as well.
Sueing Russia doesn't sound like a bad idea. Having Russia pay for all the damages and the rebuilding would not only relieve EU countries and *its* citizens, it would also dissuade Russia from making any attempts of invasion in the future.
They wouldn't pay. They didn't even apologize for warcrimes in ww2
Why would the winners ha e to pay anything to the losers ohhh wait dont tell you seriously they xan win against the russians
Grow up, there is ZERO chance of anything other than a total Russian victory. The west is pulling out.
You may try, but there is no chance they will ever pay. They rather put up another iron curtain and blame europe for their own faults.
Take it to the bank - russia will never pay willingly and there is no power in this world that can force them.
On the other hand, Iron Curtain v.2.0 doesn't sound too bad. In the end, we learned to live without them, so what's the point in keeping our markets open to them in the future?
@@MrDead00 WTF the warcrimes you are talking about. Freeing Europe from the Nazis was a warcrime in your opinion, m0r0n?
I mean, Ukraine isn't joining the EU any time soon even if they win the war tomorrow. It'll take many years for them to meet the requirements even with plenty of foreign aid. By that time the EU's redistribution mechanisms will look different anyway, so I don't think it's much use speculating on how they'd apply to Ukraine.
The EU could also consider making a special offer/emergency case. For example, the Balkan states in the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars. The circumstances are really unprecedented. Especially since the EU knows that if Ukraine doesn't have a safety net, it would be invaded again by Russia
@basiledex2164 Keep dreaming putlerbot
France and Germany carry EU. And France is a country that handle well crisis because of it's socialist economic. (Mostly Keynesianist)@basiledex2164
@basiledex2164 The US is in a recession like 50% of the time and yet they still manage to be a world power. Why would the EU have any reason to dissolve anyways?
@basiledex2164 continue dreaming
We rebuilt entire Europe basically from scratch after WW2. What kind of challenged question is that?