Long-Term Ownership Tesla Economics
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- Опубликовано: 25 июн 2024
- Which is cheaper, an old petrol car or new electric Tesla Model Y? When you add up depreciation and running costs and average it out over its life some really fascinaing data is revealed.
This question seems so simple but in fact it's really rather complex to answer and it's definitely not the same answer for everyone. Factors like if you can charge at home, how often you change cars, how much public charging you do and even when you charge all play a huge role in deciding the answer.
In this video I'm going to go through a fascinating spreadsheet that I made to get a real handle on the true cost of ownership of a petrol car vs an electric car.
Interestingly I actually even base my comparisons on an old petrol car compared to a new electric car to really see if the running costs can offset the initial purchase cost.
It seems as though there are a lot of videos coming out trying to get views just by claiming electric is now more expensive than petrol just because public charge costs have gone up. The reality if you can charge at home is very different.
You can download the spreadsheet here: benvallack.com/downloads/Car-c...
Contents:
0:00 Intro
0:44 The Banger
1:25 Depreciation
2:46 The Test Cars
3:38 Repair Costs
5:08 Running Costs
8:05 Cashflow Caveat
10:36 High Mile Economics
11:22 Bonus Number 1
12:43 Bonus Number 2
13:24 Bonus Number 3
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The difference for me is that all the EV manufactures want to have total control over your vehicle. Everything baked into software, not selling replacement parts, claiming its too "dangerous" for mechanics to work on them, locked out of superchargers etc. old cars you can usually buy new parts directly from the OEM, or get parts from the aftermarket. Nobody is making aftermarket replacement parts for a Tesla, and Tesla has a bad reputation of not selling anyone replacement parts. You get in a fender bender with a Tesla and you're screwed. get into a fender bender in a beater and pretty much any shop can fix it for you.
Yeah this is definitely something to consider - Engineering Explained did a video looking at his experience getting some bits sorted and part cost and availability was all pretty encouraging. I think though we are looking at quite a different way of thinking about these things - when the thing is this expensive you just hand it over to the insurer and let them figure it out with Tesla. In terms of actual mechanical breakdowns etc I think the way Tesla are going we can expect really good reliability so instances of repairs will be fewer.
@@BenVallack your whole argument is that in 10 years it will become a beater that you can continue to extract more value out of the initial investment by replacing/refurbing the battery pack. But when your door handle breaks in 10 years and Tesla won't sell you a new one and the aftermarket can't make them because they've cryptographically keyed the door handle to the car, you throw the car away. Just like an apple iphone keys the home button to the phone. Or maybe you can find an aftermarket handle, but Tesla blocks you from superchargers because you've used an "unlicensed" part. Now Tesla isn't keying door handles to cars yet, but this is the direction things are trending.
@@Cracked1ce I know there is some element of that kind of thing going on. But the reality is it's not there yet. Maybe I will have to go to tesla for all repairs and pay their prices, but I don't think that's really an issue. Running costs will still pan out. Most of the repairs I had done on our old Subaru were done at main dealers too.
@@BenVallack I'm not trying to argue the economics of the video. Even your calculations show the beater to be cheaper. But the real comparison is between an EV and another comparable new car. Which an EV wins out in the economics of that situation. I'm just giving the reasons why I personally would not switch to an EV over a comparable new car. Sadly a lot of those bad aspects are trickling over into ice cars. Like BMW with their heated seat subscription.
@@Cracked1ce For sure - I hear you, definitely valid points. I thinks it's something we need to keep a close eye on. Charging for hardware you've already got is particularly irksome!
Even better: live in a walk-able neighborhood, walk/run/bike/e-bike/electric micro mobility, take public transit and car share/rent on the circumstances you need to reach a spot that the former options can't reach. Better for the finances, better for health, better for developing community with neighbors, better for the environment and better for the municipality.
That's a great point. Electric cars will encourage people to live further away because of the lower energy cost and auto pilot features. Car Infrastructure is the real damage to the climate and society and EVs will make that sprawl much worse.
@@williamward9248 Yes, electric cars are better than gas, but they still have a huge environmental impact from lithium mining and damage to roads which need to be repaired.
Transit, walking and biking is what we need to switch to if we really want to save the planet. It's the only system made to move massive amounts of people in an efficient way.
Great video as always! Keep up the good work
Love the videos, always so well done
It would be really interesting to see a similar video from an environmental perspective. I’ve seen comments saying that the carbon cost of building a Tesla is much higher than a petrol car but how many miles do you need to do on electricity before that breaks even and how does the calculation change if your electricity is from a renewable source rather than than fossil fuels?
And does that include the cost of a solar set up, which is about the cost of a Tesla.
Typical EV pays back its carbon footprint of manufacturing within about 2 years.
@suede__ you don't need a solar set up to run an EV
Those people don't take into account how green modern electrical systems are and that being said, it's much easier to get an electrical grid to be green than to get millions of gas guzzling cars green.
In a fossil fuel based electrical system, both the ICE car and the electrical system pollutes as the internal combustion engine releases greenhouse gases as well as the electrical grid whereas the electrical car that is charged by the dirty electrical grid doesn't release pollution on its own, but is charged by the already existing electrical system.
It's still greener even in the worst case scenario and is much easier to make carbon neutral if you make your electrical grid carbon neutral.
@@tylersmith3139 Nuclear is NOT green.
EVs can never take the place of a common ICE vehicle until the price falls by like 60%+. A normal person can buy and use something like a KIA RIO for ~$15k, and that is with crappy credit. Drive like a granny, no wrecks, etc, and your over all monthly cost over 10-15 years is ~$100.00 a month. The number of people in the first world that can reasonably get a tesla even charging at home (you have to pay for that to be installed too) is like 10% of the population at best.
Wonderful video Ben!
The algorithm brought me here. Interesting take on the economics, and well presented. Thank you.
However, I couldn't help but smiling when you said that 18 years is a bit extreme for a banger. I own 3 banger cars, two of which are 26 years old.
One is in fact my first car ever, a VW passat from 1997 with over 360k km (over ~223k miles to you imperial folks) on the clock.
I am a DIY enthusiast, and by the end of the summer I will have owned the VW for 10 years, during which I kept a close eye on the cost of ownership.
I figured I would share some numbers of my, humbly speaking, not-so-extreme case:
Back in 2013 the car itself cost me 2400€, and total cost of ownership in terms of repairs (mostly DIY but also some in-shop work), annual car tax, insurance, MOT inspections, two sets of new tires (summer and winter), and a handful of *optional but useful performance improving mods* , has come to a total of 7828€ for the 10 years and ~80k km (~50k miles) that I have driven it. That's roughly 65€ or 57,38£ a month, not including the cost of petrol.
If you want to include the cost of petrol, we could assume an average price of 1.8€/L over 10 years, and a very generous high-estimate (the actual number is well below this) average consumption of 10L/100km (23,52 mpg), giving us 14400€ for the petrol, bringing the monthly cost up to 185€ or 163£, which is in the ballpark of your calculations.
Now granted, the car isn't pretty and it's seen its fair share of abuse. But it runs great, is fun to drive, and I know all the ins and outs of it. It has no more surprises.
I am sure that the view I present is somewhat of an exception in the grand scheme of things, but think it will take a lot of convincing for many DIY mechanics to put out over 70k € to buy a "proper" EV (the sub 300km wltp range cars aren't an option for me) and try to make economic sense of it. (As if buying any brand new car ever made economic sense 😏).
But even if the price of petrol were to increase from the current 2€/L to 3€/L, that 70k would buy me 23 333 liters of petrol, which at the previous mileage estimate would equal another 230k km, or 142k miles worth of driving. Not to mention that the insurance cost of a new car would be *triple* of what I pay annually. In addition, as Daniel Johnson pointed out in the comments section, most EVs seem to be not so DIY-repair-friendly, meaning any non-warranty repairs will cost you extra in terms of labour at the dealership.
Just my two cents on the matter.
Thanks for sharing - really interesting. How is the rust situation on the body and underneath? I had to deal with quite a few rust issues on that subaru!
@@BenVallack I'm glad you asked! Yeah rusting has been the plague of many a Japanese car, particularly those from the 90's era. Regarding the passat, the body iself is galvanized, which slows down the rotting process considerably. In my case there are only issues with paint bubbling and stripping in the traditional locations, such as wheel-arches, around the trunk hatch, and near the door trim sections. At least the inspection guy hasn't been able to stick his screwdriver through the floor 😁. The bigger issue is the corrosion of bolts and fasteners, making every repair begin with an insane 4-hour fight of sweat, blood, and tears.
This is yet another example of how the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. The rich have the money to spend up-front on an EV that saves them money in the long run, while the poor have to go with something less expensive up-front that costs more in the long run.
Yeah agree - a problem. Hopefully this will balance out when we actually get 10 year old EVs on the market though. I.e people who can’t afford the cash flow now can carry on and they’re still better off month to month. In 10 year’s time there’ll be plenty of cheap old EVs on the market so things will balance out. In fact I think when that happens the bangernomics will combine with the cheap charging economics and things will get really interesting!
@@BenVallack I have nothing against EVs--it's simply too early for them to flood the affordable second-hand marketplace.
@@kentslocum Yeah absolutely - this is a time issue due to transitioning to new technology.
Poor people don't buy cars.
It is always the same collage teacher get thousand students get no jobs after spending
You didn't account for the time-value of money which would swing the equation substantially against the tesla. This is very important concept for understanding the opportunity cost of such a large initial outlay.
Yeah I thinks a factor if you’re using actual capital. If you’re just using a loan from Tesla and that’s money you wouldn’t otherwise justify getting a loan for it’s a bit different. In fact if the interest rates are low enough it makes sense to secure a long-life asset at todays price to insulate you from inflation.
@@BenVallack a loan from tesla is actual upfront capital that you will pay back plus interest. A fair analysis would be to compare that with getting the $60,000 loan to buy the cheap car with the remainder making a yearly compounding 10% return (average s&p 500 return)
Any financial planner or analyst would apply a discount rate being what you could reasonably expect had the loan been used for low risk investing.
This Video is so useful!! It's started me doing calculations for buying an old Banger vs. Leasing (and then maybe buying) a brand new Toyota Hybrid. It's quite interesting. 😊
Commenting for the algorithm. Your content deserves more views and attention. Best of luck
Thanks so much!
There is a lot that could be said here, but the biggest thing Tesla proponents seem to forget is: There are other, MUCH cheaper EVs. If you want to make a calculation to justify buying a 60k New car, than that's fine, but there are new EVs for around 20k. Renault Zoe, Honda E and many others cost half of what the Tesla does. You Videos Title is still true, but if you actually cared about monthly cost, a Testla is probably the worst EV you could get.
Finally, a lot of the calculations change depending on where you live. If you own a house and can charge at home for cheap rates, than that's great. I live in a flat on the 4th floor. I'd have to calculate buying a House or moving into the equation. In Germany we also don't get cheaper electricity at night.
All of this is to say: EV's are great if you can make it work. And if you can, maybe don't look into a Tesla. They are still as expensive a Status Symbol as BMWs or Mercedeses are. If you want to make a sensible decision: Get a 1 year old Renault Zoe and a nice electric Bike. Use the car less and Rent a bigger car if you need to transport stuff.
Good comment but you hit the nail on the head in the last line. The Tesla is about the only option that is also a sensible practical family car that can handle long journeys. Renting a car would scupper the monthly savings almost immediately. That’s why it needs to be the Tesla that makes sense financially. Even the Long Range Model Y is on the fringe of acceptability in terms of range - really I’d like 100% of my miles to be home charged to avoid reliance on Supercharges at all. The idea of needing more public charging and then having to rely on non-Tesla chargers (which are still a joke) is so unappealing I’d much rather just get a nice 3 year old luxury petrol SUV. This is why the Tesla is actually the most significant EV out there because it’s the only one that really can answer the requirements of a family that does long trips without major practical headaches with charging infrastructure and frequency of charging. I agree totally that if you don’t have the family car requirements, do much fewer miles with much shorter journeys then the cheaper options will make much more sense. Also agree it’s all totally depended on ability to charge at home.
If a lease is £400 a month, I would rather pay that every month and get a new car every 3-4 years.
Great video Ben! Agree that things work out well if you’re privileged to be able to buy an EV in the first place. The game changer is being able to charge overnight at a cheaper rate and to adapt to the flow (btw this isn’t available in Germany where I live). Again, cost of Wallbox plus ancillary cost not doable for all either. Path forward for e-mobility at scale still tricky methinks.
Keep up the good work!
That's not true though. EV ownership is quite high in Germany.
Hello Ben, I am always pleased to be notified that you have published a new video. I paused this one at "Cash Flow Caveat" because you did not plug in the middle way of charging; at home on a variable 35p tariff. I have not been able to achieve a cheap overnight Tariff. I can't believe I am alone among Tesla drivers. So, if you ever have time to publish thet version, I would be forever grateful.
That’s about half way between supercharging and off peak charging. So the monthly cost would be about in the middle of my home charge calculation and the 100% supercharge calculation (which is after the bit you paused it hehe) Why can’t you switch to an EV tariff out of interest? Issue getting a smart meter?
Just to throw in a very different scenario. Bought my model 3 SR+ in Nov 2021. It came with 1500km free supercharging. I'm on an electricity plan that includes free power from 9pm to midnight every day so do my charging then. The latest version of the Tesla app gives a charging cost summary for the last year (which doesn't go fully back to when I got it) based on the actual cost of supercharging and the home rate. It appears to have a daylight saving time bug so over estimated the cost of home charging by a small amount. Total cost of charging for the last year is NZ$143 dollars. Travel in this time used some or the free supercharging. Total distance travelled was a bit over 9000km. NZ$143 is 75 pounds at today's exchange rate. The car cost approx. 31,500 pounds at the exchange rate at time of purchase. Supercharging rate varies slightly between charging centres but was around 39 pence per kilowatt hour. The car has incurred no service costs yet.
It would cost you more in replacement shoes to cover the same distance walking, excluding the cost of the car of course.
Excellent video, videos like this help to try and balance the arguments and counteract the silly stuff that is sometimes said about electric vehicles. Its hard to make a case for electric cars that will please the detractors, I have given up trying to convince people with numbers and I now try an concentrate of softer things like the driving experience, the power, the eco benefits, I also try and point out that its likely that in say 20 years there will be very few vehicles that are not powered by electricity. I currently drive a Mitsubishi PHEV hybrid but will go fully electric as soon as there is a clear path towards V2H or V2G, in the meantime for me, a hybrid and home storage batteries make sense.
Reminded me of an old geezer who had properties and relatives on the east coast, but resided in the great northwest. He would fly east and be gone for 2 or 3 or more months at a time. What this wealthy miser did was fly into a big city, like New York or Boston, and spend a couple days reading the want ads. He said the most common thing they needed was a new battery, so for $300 and the price of the cheapest new or reconditioned battery he could find, he'd drive all up and down the east coast. When he was done, he'd just leave the car in airport parking. Most of the time, he didn't even bother to get it registered in his name.
He said it was way cheaper renting a car.
Talking about fixing what was wrong with your Subaru and saving money reminded me of old Frank, and "history deserves to be remembered."
Really interesting video! Ofcourse there are many variables that can change to influence the financial outcome. I'd often consider buying a 2-3 year old car with ~
You do have to rent a house with an EV charger, as opposed to an assignment
I'd be interested in you taking a look at PEVs (personal electric vehicles) like an EUC. You can get 7.5x the wh/km going a usual intercity speed as compared to the tesla. With a 200 km range which is not horrible, especially considering it "charges it's range back up" at 7.5x the speed of a tesla since it is 7.5x as efficient so you can charge it at many more places then just a super charger.
200 km range can be seen on the 4800wh EUC's like the begode master pro.
Also worth noting that EUC's and other PEVs can go 90 km/h or more if high on battery, though of course that is not a normal city speed and will drain battery alot faster if done for the entire trip.
EUC's are technically the most efficient PEVs but you can get even larger ranges on for example electric mopeds without losing a ton of efficency.
There's also alot of other benefits to PEV's that are smaller especially EUC's because they are so tiny. You can take them in stores since they can be held and moved by a trolly handle like a suit case. And you can also take them on public transport, so you can literally take your 200km range vehicle with you on public transport.
EUC's themselves are different from other PEVs because they have more functionality since they can turn on a dime literally, go up 45 degree slopes, offroad easily, ride up or down stairs, can go at extremely slow speeds (slower then walking), Can be taken on sidewalks or in more public areas without getting in people's way, can be ridden both sitting or standing, and more.
Other PEVs don't have any of those features.
Yeah currently they're all illegal in the UK - I can't wait for legislation to catch up with them though. Very exciting things!
Hi Ben, thanks for all the content you’re producing. Truly stellar!
That being said, I believe in this instance you’ve vastly underestimated the cost of non-battery repairs and also the number of occurrence of battery failures (and also overestimated the depreciation of the banger over the last 4 years of its life, having had a few 10yo cars already, they never went from 8 to 2k in value, precisely because they had lost so much of their value already).
Battery failure: nothing says it’s only going to occur once over the 14 years lifetime. A simple look at any modern battery powered device shows that even 8 to 10 years is a ridiculous expectation. And that’s not even accounting human errors. Case in point the Smart F2 EV that my 80+ yo father forgot to put in charge before leaving it home for a 3 months stay at his partner’s which simply died and got scraped. That sort of issues would NEVER happen with an ICE.
Battery failures on Teslas will occur more than once in a decade, so it’s not a 20k cost over the 14 years and probably more like 40 or 60, which changes your spreadsheet quite massively.
Lastly: there’s a ton of feedback on how a 14yo banger behaves, and next to none for the equivalent EV. So really all we’re doing here is just guesswork.
Once again thank you for your amazing content!
Thanks! Yeah definitely all very valid points. A lot of my assumptions are certainly up for debate. I would definitely hope that a battery would not fail at all for the vast majority of Teslas - I do currently believe that to be a real worst case scenario. I’m also actually hoping that the £8k estimate for normal repairs might actually be an over estimate! There is so little to go wrong and the whole point is I’d have had the car from new so know it won’t be abused etc. It’s going to be super interesting seeing how this all pans out and I will keep sharing all my data too.
@@BenVallack time will definitely tell! Having literally never seen any battery, from small to large devices last that long I admit to be extremely skeptical re. battery life. Also there’s so much more to it than total battery failure, at 60% capacity the car starts to be utterly unusable already. Case in point the iPad Pro I have, stated to be 91% total cap by an APR last week that doesn’t stand a full day with barely any use.
Another point: there’s a lot of assumption that EV have a by-mile cost, which is simply untrue: while ICE actually don’t consume gas when they’re turned off, a battery will empty on its own (albeit at a much lower speed), meaning the car will actually cost you even if you don’t use it, which makes the comparison unfair.
And lastly, I would disagree that there’s “not much that can fail”. Electric motors can and do fail for a variety of reasons that just happen to not be the same ones as ICE’s. An Electrical Motor will fail for electrical reasons (such as the water pump from my forage that failed last month because one of the phases just burnt for some unknown reason). We can hope that EVs have better protection circuits, but truth is they will fail, and repairing then will be much less of a thing than for ICEs because Teslas et all will never release the full schematics of their circuits, rendering any attempt at changing a failed component moot.
As a ex-car enthousiaste that has had the chance to drive the first Tesla Roadster I actually love the idea of EVs and the driving experience that they offer. I’m just not sold on the financial, future proofing and practical matters (I can already imagine the queue for charging during massive summer transit, for instance)
They are nice looking cars though!
If you'd like to have some hope for EV batteries, head to a retro game store and see if they've got a Gameboy Advance SP.
I know mine was heavily used for a number of years - left on for a week straight once because I read some tip about unlocking something online, etc. - and the battery isn't much worse than when I got it. Same for my DS. I think for both of those, it's more common for other components to fail first.
I mean, those are tiny batteries. But it's something, you know?
@@SirReberal on the other end of the spectrum take a look at any smartphone after a couple year :-) Apple, I’m looking at you.
@@bricecarpentier5817 The difference there is that smartphones usually suffer from I would call 'bad charging hygiene' (frequent and very deep cycles). EVs are usually configured to have a quite a large capacity margin to avoid cycling the batteries too deeply, they are also made up of thousands of smaller cells and they have a battery management system which will load-balance the wear on those battery cells making them last much longer.
I don't think EVs such as they're making are the answer. People underestimate the environmental toll of building as many of these EVs as they're talking about. And if you're going on longer trips or driving as part of your job, the EV doesn't make sense, at least not as currently conceived.
I think the EV is awesome for running around town and charging back up at night. 4-wheelers, bikes and trikes make a lot of sense. You don't have to be limited to how much you can slow-charge the battery at night, if you have two or three batteries in rotation, if you can slow-charge, say, two batteries at a time at night when rates are cheap. Your only limitation is how far you can go on one battery before having to come back home. Commutes of a few miles a day in or to downtown would be totally practical.
My main issue with the EVs they're pushing is they're the wrong niche. They're status symbols for the wealthy, as currently conceived. What they SHOULD be doing is marketing small, zippy little vehicles that are priced for the common person. Vehicles that'll handle you and your groceries. But not something you're planning on taking from North Dakota to Arkansas on the Interstate at 80 miles an hour cruising speed.
With EVs, the fast-chargers are few and far between, especially where I like to go. And maybe in a few years, they decide that fast-charging is unsafe. Who knows? I'd feel a lot safer in an ICE vehicle than an EV vehicle away from town, any time of year, but especially in winter. Maybe my issues are all just cultural, and I'm incapable of seeing battery life as no more an issue than an empty tank, and maybe EV is BETTER for off-road and survival, because you can always make more fuel if you have solar panels with you. Not much and not very fast, but you could do it quicker than you could distill fuel out of the trees and rocks around you.*
Maybe my resistance to EVs is irrational. Maybe it's because I just don't trust the battery life or driving by wire.
*The truly hard-core would make a wood-gas-operated vehicle, so they could literally make their own fuel in an off-grid situation.
I'd love to give this a try in real life, but sadly that £900pcm is the killer for me. Also, no way in hell I'd buy a 10yo EV because of the impending battery replacement; so I'm not sure that EVs will ever become affordable to the mainstream sadly :(
They will. Be patient & optimistic mate :)
EV batteries last between 10-20 years and unless it's a super expensive model, it's going to be around $5000 dollars to replace so still relatively cheap compared to a full price gas car.
You have to include the opportunity cost you lose by constantly talking to strangers about your Tesla.
Lol
Great impartial video. Would you publish the spreadsheet?
Thanks! Yeah I’ll sort that soon.
Here you go: benvallack.com/downloads/Car-comparator-yt.xlsx
@@BenVallack Thanks!
The other thing to consider when buying an old car is appreciation (or non-depreciation may be more accurate) rather than depreciation, i have on old car, its a 2007 volvo XC70, I paid 4500 for it in 2019, i've put 65,000 miles on it, and it still sems to be holding its value at around 4500, i'm probably lucky i bought a sought after workhorse that people that tow, have horses, boats, farm, etc are finding increasingly difficult to find now that SUVs and pickups are a luxury item rather than a utility vehicle.
Another interesting calculation would be to compare 1|2 periods of leasing (4 years each) to wait until EVs get more affordable and charging experience gets better and then buying an EV that's 10/20/30% cheaper than today's EVs. Just curious 🤔 I'd like to look into it using your spreadsheet ☺️ would you make it available?
Here you go: benvallack.com/downloads/Car-comparator-yt.xlsx
Awesome ❤️ Thank you so much!
I noticed the title changed and I preferred the first non clickbait version ;-)
The CTR was dropping pretty fast so pulled out the big guns! I've changed it a few times now - which one did you see?
@@BenVallack The one that said the electric IS cheaper. Personally I dislike the use of the phrase 'mind blowing'.
@@timcx Got ya - yeah I kind of came to a similar conclusion. What do you think of this one: The TRUE COST Comparison NO ONE Is Talking About
could you make a video about your vim config?
Yep, outline in progress for that. That will go on my keyboard channel I think. www.RUclips.com/@BenVallacksKeyboards
Good video! Considering the running costs seem to have such a large impact, a more interesting comparison would be new Tesla vs 3-5 yr old petrol. Someone looking at new Tesla is not likely to also be considering a 10 yr old banger.
I noticed the mpg used was 30. In a 3 yr old petrol this number could be 50+.
One final point is that there is a cost to your EV tariff that is your day time electricity usage is more expensive I guess? With petrol vehicle this cost need not apply.
I feel its difficult to fully know until you’ve owned it for 14 years.
I recently went through something similar and also decided on the Tesla, but I can charge the car free at work and I still reckoned the per month cost was going to be slightly more than a 3 year old petrol, although based on 5 years ownership. But a premium I was happy to pay for a brand new car.
Yeah 3-5 year petrol could be good alternative, but it comes down to finding a good size awd family suv that does anything like 50mpg in real life. RAV4 maybe but then there’s this: ruclips.net/video/j3qrCNR4U9A/видео.html (Tesla 3 and Y was one of best they have ever tested) also Honest John RealMPG data is based on user submissions and I think people just enter the number on their dash. When I had a Toyota hybrid its actual mpg was about 10% lower than what it said on screen and I struggled to get anything that remarkable out of it all. There are useable patterns where a mild hybrid just doesn’t seem to work!
Also, 14 years of projected ownership seems unlikely for the stereotypical Tesla buyer.
The Yaris Cross would be an interesting calculation option. It did better at the moose test ruclips.net/video/QmO1Rtm9VaU/видео.html is available as (mild 😅) AWD, in the more expensive options it has all the security bells & whistles, and has awesome real MPG. I'll look into it.
@@GmailNexus Funny you say that actually - I was just thinking about plugging that into my spreadsheet for fun the other day! Interesting car.
@@chrisandrew_tv I think in general that's probably the case for most new cars. There are definitely long term buyers getting Teslas though.
After 10,000 miles on a Model Y Long Range, the $/mi has been around $0.05 the Toyota is around $0.15 per mile (Based on east coast US electric/gas prices)
I had a polestar 2 as a hire car for the first time to drive from Portsmouth to Liverpool with a few days of work up there. Loved the car. Hated the charging experience. Real world miles vs predicted needs to be ironed out. Get rid of manufacturers quoted range. Let the car tell you as you are driving. Some chargers were charging us 75p per kWH where we only pulling 35kW and some service stations only had one charger which resulted in a queue to use them. Some chargers you also have to pay for parking fees if they are in a hotel car park for example. To get there and back it cost on charging alone £156. With the experience I had I would say that EV cars for long distance business trip journeys is not yet a viable option.
Agree with all that for sure.
Really interesting video, I only wish I was paying £0.10/kWh for home electricity in 2024 😅
7.5p/kWh now overnight in the UK!
And who told you Tesla will let you run the car for so long ?
In the age of end of life OTA updates, non repairable Teslas will be driven by Tesla themselves to a leasing format... but i digress, point is, i can put my hand in fire that a Tesla our of warranty will not be getting any updates and will eventually just die, either by sftware or mechanical error, that you will not be able to repair yourself way before 14 years pass owning it
Well that hasn't happened with the current old ones out of warranty so I don't see there's any reason to assume new ones will be any different.
@@BenVallack I can only hope your wishfull thinking becomes reality
@@MrAdminaras I’d for more generally optimistic than wishful but time will tell if I’m off the mark!
I think you're really underestimating repair costs and the impact of insurance and parts availability.
I've heard many stories of tesla discontinuing parts and them being very difficult to find. In the us insuring a tesla costs almost 3 times as much as what I pay for my camry.
In fixed costs for isurance and maintenance i pay ~1100 dollars/year. With mileage based maintenance and gas included it adds up to~ $4800 including a $1000 budget for incidental repairs (alignments battery, tune ups etc)
Using the same budget (though repairs probably cost more on a tesla) and leaving out the oil changes, the tesla costs 4183+whatever you pay to charge it
I bought my 2010 car in 2013-2015 for 14-20k (it was 25k new) A 2010 tesla model s still costs 27k today (and was ~50k new).
It WILL pay for itself eventually, but buying new back in 2010 I would have to drive the tesla for 40 years for it to break even, not including charging
Buying either car used in 2023 the camry costs 12k and the tesla 27, it would take 24 years to break even.
Never forget that tesla is a luxury car. You're much better off making these comparisons with something like a Nissan leaf or other midrange vehicle.
Of course mass transit is much more economical (and environmentally friendly) than any car ever could be, even if you spend $40 on taxis every week.
Follow up, I did some checks and a car like a leaf or chevy bolt that costs $20-30k breaks even in like 11 years against a $12k used ICE car because on top of the power train maintenance savings the insurance is only a little above average. (Total cost ~$3000/year)
For a newer used ICE car, say 2017 at $20k, the crossover point where the ev is cheaper is like 5 years.
For any ICE car that costs the same as an ev, the ev is cheaper immediately.
EV here meaning fully electric.
You can reduce your ICE costs by raiding junkyards for parts but even then the ev is less money eventually.
Also this still applies if charging is the same cost per mile as gas (say if you do public charging only) because you're still not needing to change oil or filters or spark plugs etc. (And also not breathing the exhaust fumes) Though brakes and tires will forever be a cost.
Environmentally i dont know if either is better. I suspect it's about equal, but distributed differently. (The best car for environment is no car)
Also also because i forgot to mention it, depreciation doesn't matter because everyone in my income bracket drives till the car falls apart or they get totaled in an accident. Either way the max value is like 1-3k at end of life. Basically nothing. Cars are transportation, not investments. You are not ever getting any money back from it.
Anyway I'm glad you're enjoying your purchase, but to sway people to ev usage, start with less luxurious vehicles next time. The range and utility of a "budget" ev is comparable to base model teslas nowadays.
Even better, tell them to ditch the car entirely if they live in an area where that's feasible.
EVs are heavier aren't they? Does that impact road safety, for other vehicles?
Slightly heavier compared to another sedan or largest SUV. They're not 18 wheelers so they wouldn't cause the road to fall in.
Lets say your Banger enginge eats 9 litre/100 km with a price you've given us at 1,6 GBP / litre.
You drive 14.500 Miles in a year you say. 14.500 Miles is around 9000 km. You would need 810 litres of Fuel for driving 14.500 Miles.
810 Litres of fuel costs you 1296 GBP in a year. 1296 GBP divided by 14.500 is exactly 0,08 GBP/mile compared to the 0,24 you state in your excel sheet, which quite heavily lowers the cost of your subaru.
You’re massively over complicating the cost per mile calculation. £1.6 per litre is £7.28 per UK gallon. If the car does 30mpg it costs £0.24 per mile. (7.28/30).
@@BenVallack My calculation is definitly wrong, my bad. But man those units are confusing as hell. Theres US Gallons and UK Gallons. Then theres GBP/litre and not GBP/Gallons. Aaaah.
@@nikeboy995 yeah tell me about it!! I’m using all UK figures. So the mpg figure is also going to be different then cars over there. Takes for checking the figures though, I was terrified there’d be some kind of error somewhere!
Have you calculated the cost to the planet? Being mined all over the world, mostly in third-world countries, poisoning the lungs of the people who are mining it. Having to ship those rare materials to the US, because the EPA won't let you do it here. Then after they are put together, we have no way to recycle or dispose of them. The batteries are toxic. We can't do anything but store them or let them leach into the soil. Not to mention putting them together is creating gases that are not good for life, Because of all of those things simply building an EV is worse for the planet than the entire lifespan of a range rover before you consider what to do with the batteries after they're out of commission. (Please don't block me, I'm not trolling. This is a serious issue)
Certainly have no desire to block this! It's a very valid concern. For me I think fossil fuels are also pretty bad for the planet - extraction, spill, geopolitical conflicts, etc etc. My hope is that in time we will improve on the materials needed for battery manufacture as a result of the desire for the technology. We have to improve the local air quality on our streets where kids are walking to school and range rovers are very guilty there. (To be fair I actually quite like range rovers but I wouldn't get diesel for the local air quality issue).
What about investing the difference in downpayment and monthly cost with some average ROI. Also, going by this video it seems that some cheaper electric cars might be great value for money if you don't care about having insane range.
Definitely a good point if you have the cash in the bank. I actually didn’t include the interest on the loan scenario either. I’m generally of the mindset that if the APR is lower than inflation you’re doing ok! I actually got my Tesla loan at 3.99% and that was when it was £55k so not too bad considering the interest and current price.
Seriously, 40seconds of ads
Interesting! This vid has very high retention but low overall views so maybe RUclips is trying to deal with that somehow.
£900 Subaru all day long!!!
It was a fun car but wait till you try a Tesla!
I wish I had your commitment to quantify EV vs ICE. This is a good start, however there are many more variables. Also there's a cognitive bias (possibly groupthink?) on today's way of living with an ICE vehicle, which cannot be translated to an EV. E.g., depreciation is far less with ~40 moving parts and updates that improve the car.
Fuel costs to factor fuel increasing and electricity decreasing (in fact free with solar).
Yeah good points. It took me about 5 rewrites to come up with this outline. So many points I ended up taking out for the sake of being concise!
Electricity price decreasing? We might not live on the same planet (and solar is far from being free if you account for, once again, the life expectancy of solar panels as well as their decreasing efficiency). As EV use increases, electricity price will increase massively (and oil price will decrease or at least stop increasing because of offer and demand mechanics).
Truth is, there is no silver bullet, ever. EVs are amazing at a variety of things, ICE vehicles are amazing at other things, and they should coexist.
@@bricecarpentier5817 You may be surprised how sustainable living in a circular economy is for the individual. Don't knock it til you try...I'm talking from experience.
@@bricecarpentier5817 Yeah agree - although I do think we need phase out diesel for passenger cars. It's a disaster in winter walking around on the school run.
@@kotgc7987 I mean… I live almost mostly off the grid (water from a forage, solar panels on the roof, wood chopped in the forest 100m away) so I’d say I’m pretty much living it :-) but hiding the costs isn’t the good way to sell it. IE. I chop and split my wood and I save a lot of money that way but overall I’d say I spent about 100h splitting the wood last summer :) I get about 1 to 2k in electricity off my bill each year thx to the solar panels… but the efficiency is decreasing each year (noticeably) and they costed the previous owner about 20k to install…
What I’m saying is it’s not as clear cut as a lot people (and your post to some extent) makes it sound :)
You clearly ignored the two biggest factors of monthly charging costs in EVs... ( let alone the price of Kwh which is outside our control but definitely worrying ) which makes the whole second part of the video pointless on the premise you started with... the actual costs.
1. You lose miles from the battery when you dont use the car, every single day, you dont lose petrol from any conventional car
2. Depending on the temperature outside, you will also be spending a ton of battery power to heat up the battery and people inside the car ( cold outside ) or will not be able to charge at the speed or capacity you expected ( warm outside )
I'm sorry, but point 1 is almost always missed by everyone and i dont understand why... having millions of EVs vaporising Energy in for of 10-20 Miles per day is breathtakingly bad and should be said way more often by videos and youtubes like you
🙏
Price of petrol is out of our control too. So is how much tax we pay and the price of beer! Not sure what your point is there. Lets put a figure on phantom drain. I think it's 0.5% per day, if that, so that about £1.20/month. That's why no one is talking about it! 10-20 miles per day phantom loss is total nonsense I'm afraid, don't know who told you that! (unless you leave sentry mode but that's your choice) 2. Charging speed is not relevant when you're charging at home as it has plenty of time to get the job done. Yes range is lower in winter. So is a petrol car. At least the ev isn't wasting energy heating up the air behind the car as it drives along!
@@BenVallack "Let alone" means, lets ignore the costs of things we cannot control, is my point.
Vampire Drain, Bettery Drain, loss of Capacity per day, call it as you want is a reality of the physics of the Battery combined, those, even on the your perfect condition estimate of 0.5% per day accounts for losing milage, especially in a 14 year period ( Tesla manual sets the daily drain on 1% btw ).
The point is simple, when you make a video with a subject of comparing costs between a Tesla and a Conventional Car over 14 years, and at the introduction saying you will be focusing on the real costs, you cannot ignore the fact that a Lithium Battery will, as any Battery, lose a variable amount of power over the days you dont charge it, and that is my remark as comment, simple as that.
Getting it the more critical tone... Honestly i have to question your reasearch skills as literally all Tesla forums are full with Phantom Drain questions, aggression and clarifications asked, exactly because people can see more than the expected 1%. Not every person has the priviledge to not have sentry mode on, especially when you might be the new guy with a Tesla in the hood... but overall, 10 Miles a day is very possible and overnight a minimum of 2-3 will be lost even by Tesla's Standards, that accounts for a best case scenario of 10 thousand miles more in a period of 14 years - that were never driven.
@@MrAdminaras The point is though it is simply too small a portion to worry about. £1-2/month on a bill the best part of £500 just isn't an issue. It's a small inefficiency overhead that doesn't affect the outcome of my comparison at all. The larger point though is do you comment on petrol car videos asking what happens to 80-90% of the energy you burn (hint: it doesn't go on the miles you drive).
Mate, you haven't properly accounted for the time value of money. For example, the Banger is 47000 pounds cheaper than the Tesla. You could have earned almost 8000 pounds if you invested that at 4%. To do it properly, you need to assume you finance both cars at the same rate, or pay cash for both cars but then invest the surplus at the same rate.
Good point but most people are financing and don’t have that kind of cash kicking around to invest. Another way of doing it would be that you could invest the difference in outgoings month by month. If you’re financing the tesla your monthly outgoings are way higher until the loan is paid off. So the hanger route would leave you with surplus to invest instead. But once the tesla is paid off you then have lower outgoings with that route and can start investing that surplus instead of spending it on petrol. At the end of lifecycles you’ll have invested more with the tesla route than the banger route due to the banger costing more per month in real terms. Granted the banger route would have earned more due to it being invested earlier in the lifecycle.
Excellent and informative video as always. I still don't think I'll ever really consider owning a Tesla, due to reported build quality issues and issues with Elon Musk as a person, but other electric cars like the IONIQ 5 are very appealing. My dad owns a BMW i3 and aside from issues he has with the centre console and the app, as an electric car he really really likes it
Thanks! I've always thought the i3 was a really interesting car. Build quality is fixed in current Teslas by the way. Also I don't think Elon is so bad - mostly it's just mainstream media trying to take him down I think!
Tesla service is second to none.
I can't imagine the the batteries will hold 14 years. I would say after 10 they get so much degraded that you can throw them away.
Lots of old Model S examples out there with minimal degradation - even with high supercharger use.
@@BenVallack yup. I expect my LR3 to be at 85-90% after 10 years, mainly (PV) 5A-9A 240v AC charging and keeping between 55-75%.
@@BenVallack considering it was first introduced in 2012 and they had only ever produced 200k units worldwide in 2017 I’m interested where you get “a lot” from :-) I’m joking, slightly. I would actually love to get real data on MTBF for those batteries (across brands, as there’s not only Tesla around :-))
@@bricecarpentier5817 200k is enough to spot some trends I think think - have a look at this www.nimblefins.co.uk/study-real-life-tesla-battery-deterioration - Nissan Leafs are still going strong too but degradation seems quite a bit higher. Having said that there are factors like how full/empty they were charged - cars with smaller ranger will likely have pushed the batteries harder.
@@BenVallack thanks Ben for your responses.
Big mistake my friend, you forgot to account for the opportunity cost of buying a tesla and not investing that money in something that appreciates. Tsk tsk, i cant believe you are making the economic argument of spending more on a depreciating asset (even taking out a loan!!) when both vehicles can get job done.
What you’re saying doesn’t work in reality. If I had all the capital maybe. The fact that it’s a loan makes it work better because someone else is taking the risk. But given I’d be paying for petrol over the period of time, I wouldn’t have very much to invest. Whereas this way I’m actually saving in terms of real cost after the full period. So once the loan is paid off I then won’t be paying for petrol either so in the second half of the term I can invest more than I would in total over the whole term. I’d be missing on the first few years of growth but the size of the investment from first few years if I was paying petrol would be minimal compared to the chunk I’d be able to put in in that second half. I don’t think the growth from that small portion at the start would offset the savings made overall. I might have to do a spreadsheet to get to the real numbers though. But given the hassle involved with repairing an old car even if it’s close, the advantage of the huge warranty portion is worth it, not to mention safety snd contribution to local air quality.
Your absurdly optimistic estimates and assumptions are confirmation bias in the extreme. I wouldn't trade my 20 year old Jetta for any Tesla.
You don't need much confirmation bias to see that a 10 year depreciation cost on a Tesla equates to about the same as you spend on diesel in 10 years doing just a bit above average miles. Of course it's a good bit more overall but it's very close if you do the maths like this. The whole argument is pretty irrelevant now that you can get used EVs for even cheaper than equivalent used ICE cars though. If you want to save money that's how to do it!
@@BenVallack Keep telling yourself that.
Tell myself what? Can you clarify your argument?@@UguysRnuts
@@BenVallack Don't be obtuse. You'll find out soon enough.
@@UguysRnutsGive me some numbers!