I've read people's assessment on this game and i think it still stays the same. If all you had to do to win as matriarch was to notice missing npcs that can't even go missing, while the escapees has to do a mission so far and isolated that guarantees suspicion upon first glance, i don't think there is much to do in the game at all. Like no counterplay, no consequence for misplay from the more powerful side, the only deceit is gaslighting while you are not and cannot do the task, the game is really showing its stiffness.
hey hey, great points, as the dev of the game, you hit the nail on something I've been struggling with when creating it! I envisioned that Sinners could go up and down multiple times during the day, and would communicate the matriarch's position to each other, so the interesting bit would come from timing your actions properly & coordinating with other sinners to come back to your task area before the matriarch reaches it and sees that you're missing. It didn't work out in this version, for a few reasons, namely, I didn't make it obvious that the matriarch shouldn't communicate with sinners, and digging is too time-consuming to allow multiple back&forth per day. Since this video was recorded, I released a few updates to assess some of these points, in the new Monastery map, it's much faster to access & come back from the underground area, and the sinners have an explicit functionality to visually communicate the matriarch's position to other sinners. That doesn't solve the problem you raised completely, but I'm still working on it!
@@chewa3948 hey dev just wanna say I think your game is awesome and I really hope you continue to work on it, I'm in love with the concept and I super appreciate how communicative you are about it. Can't wait to see more!
@@chewa3948 I don't play the game personally but from watching videos of it, i feel like there needs to be some sort of punishment to the Matriarch for doing random guesses, like its fine n all but if thats the Default go to is just to call an emergency sacrifice and picking at random i think that is something that needs to be fixed, not sure how but maybe something that gives the nuns some sort of a boost in the next round, not saying remove it as an option just make the Matriarch have to do a bit more of an educated guess or atleast be willing take the debuff for a shot in the dark guess
The math you did was for the odds of any of the 5 sinners being killed on the first night, with nights 4 and 5 assuming that the previous kills were not sinners. If you want to odds of you specifically being killed, that's 1 out of the remaining group at the time you died at. Which, according to my math, is a 0.00023% chance of happening all in a row.
Doing the math for just a first round death chance, accounting the nights Rob did a triple sacrifice first round giving more chances I got 0.012%(rounded) odds.
@@absqrb The odds of hitting anything increases with being able to hit 3 times in a row. There is only 1 Kaif to be hit, meaning each calculation is done with just that 1 hit, and hitting anyone else in a Sudden Sacrifice increases the odds of everyone being hit the next time, not just Kaif. So while there are 3 chances to hit Kaif, there are also 3 chances for anyone and everyone else to be hit, so it wouldn't change the calculation in that way.
@@justinalicea1590 the triple chance cancels out... i.e. : 13/14 * 1/13 is still 1/14 and: 13/14 * 12/13 * 1/12 is still 1/14 right? Which would be (1/14)^5 coming to roughly 0.000186% for all 5 games?
@@justinalicea1590 I do believe it would change the chances, as every time someone gets picked out they leave one less person to pick from. If K is "kaif gets picked" And N is "kaif dosn't get picked" With 14 nuns, you then get : the prossibilities to get kaif would be : {K,N,N} {N,K,N} {N,N,K} and every time there is one less possibility. K1 = "kaif gets picked as first choice" K2= "kaif gets picked as second choice" K3= "kaif gets picked as third choice" The probabilities then are : P(K1) =1/14 P(K2)= 1/13 -P(K1) = 1/13 - 1/14 = 0.00549450549 (-P(K1) because if K1 true then K2 can't be true) P(K3)= 1/12 - P(K2) - P(K1) = 1/12 - (1/13 - 1/14) - 1/14 = 1/12 - 1/13 + 1/14 - 1/14 = 1/12- 1/13 = 0.00641025641 And or K to be true, you have to get either K1, K2, K3. And since you can't have K1, K2 or K3 at the same time you have : P(K) = P(K1) + P(K2) +P(K3) = 1/14 + 1/13- 1/14 + 1/12 -1/13 = 1/12 = 0.08333333333 On first game, he got picked out of 14 in the natural night. To get these events, you had to get : Kaif dies out of 14 on night one and then get gaif 4 times. You then have as a final probability : 1/14 * 1/12 * 1/12 * 1/12 * 1/12 = 0.00000344466 = 0.00034466%
Rob actually finished hellstuck on a different time and became the only member to do so. You can see his reaction in one of the salt raiders clips of the month.
So what stops the Matriarch from doing an emergency sacrifice and immediately getting rid of 3 possibilities right at the start of the game? She’d either kill off one or more players, making the future game much easier, or she’d get rid of 3 NPC’s which allows her to survey less total people in a given day
I mean this video shows both halves of that coin - Rob often starts off with the sudden sacrifice, doing what you say, and then during one of the Ebbz games it shows why you DON'T want to sudden sacrifice - because firing it too early means that you can't interrupt them at a later day.
I think the best way to expand the game is a few points which idk if it's possible. 1. Extend the day into three sections Morning- just as normal start Evening- switch tasks Night- voting 2. Every death slows the matriarch. Maybe innocents more slow. 3. 'Devil' stuff pops up the matriarch needs to clear if not cleared the dig speed increases. 4. NPCs will sometimes not go to there tasks, upon being caught they then get sent to there tasks. 5. Sinners can trick NPCs into misbehaving. Like placing graffiti or making a mess. (See 3) 6. If possible add four areas where NPCs can go 'hide' at. Make them further out than normal so the matriarch might not have enough time to check everywhere.
I know this is a late response, but I'd like to give a little input to these suggestions and how they might affect the game: 1 would be a double edged sword, as it both needs the sinners to move a lot more to keep blending in, but also needs the matriarch to pay more attention, making both have to do more 2 would be annoying more than anything, and would make people just start guessing at that point because it'd be unfun to keep playing the matriarch at that point. 3 would probably be the most interesting of the suggestions you have. Make it frequent enough to where it'll happen once, maybe twice a game, but infrequent enough to where they won't know when until it happens 4 & 5 can be pinned together, and would both be good individually, but combined would need to have more consideration in mind unless players are also incentivized to do thinks like graffiti and making a mess 6 would probably also be annoying as it means that, in a larger game, the sinners have at least one that can dig without too much worry every day. It gives them a better chance to win, and while the game is stacked against them, not so much so that, if they had the first day free they'd still have a challenge Overall, asides from the second suggestion, all of them have merit and are good ideas, although #6 is the one I'd be most wary of if I were one of the game devs, as it'd completely shift the power dynamic.
as someone with the name Emma....... i feel attacked by the amount of Emma's murdered just for having the name :'D my gawd, wonder if an Emma mugged him or something
the end of the video shows that there is a huge flaw in that you only need to find 2 of the codes, then you can just cycle the last one through all the numbers to get to open the exit and win
Hey Kiaf did you guys do a video of this game in the past on yours or the SR channel? I just have a vague memory of some of the parts in this video and I feel slightly insane because I'm 95% sure I didn't watch a stream of it. Either way I'd like to say thanks man, you're always making amazing content and whenever you upload it's certainly a highlight of my day. Anyway thank you again, and keep being your wonderful self man.
Every time i see that Kaif has created a new video, i stop what i am doing and watch it instantly. Thanks Kaif for making such great videos and i hope that the SR Group can grow stronger than every. Well in Doubt what do we do.. WE VOTE STAN OUT
"In the world of chance a low probability is still possible no matter how low it is, when you doubt that fact is when you learn this very idea because our universe has a sense of humor." Some guy 2012
I've learned a pattern to Rob's behaviour If he's in a good mood he'll end starting sentences with "right" If he's salty/tilted/being a big baby, he'll end the sentences with "by the way".
Just did the math assuming that each round is independent, and focusing specifically on the probability that he got Kaif out each sudden sacrifice/guess. The first round was a simple 1/14 since he had 1 guess, 1 was kaif, and there were 14 choices. That is an approximately 7.14% chance. The other 4 rounds are slightly more complicated, but you can figure out the probability by taking the opposite of the probability that rob did not guess Kaif any of the 3 chances he had. This equation comes out to be 1 - (13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12) = approximately 21.43% chance each sudden sacrifice. Since there were 4 sudden sacrifices and 1 normal guess, the full equation is: (1/14) * (1 - (13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12))^4 which is approximately a 0.015% chance. I did not take into account which specific guess in each sudden sacrifice he got Kaif, just that he got him at all, and this was for Kaif specifically. Looking at it from another angle, if you evaluate the probability that Rob got the same person each time, regardless of if it was Kaif or someone else, the question changes to be (5/14) * (1 - (13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12))^4, since the specific sinner he guesses on the first round doesn't matter, the only thing that does matter is if he did get a sinner the first round. This evaluates to around 0.075%, which isn't much better. TL;DR: Rob guessing Kaif specifically each time like he did was around 0.015% likely to happen. He had an approximately 0.075% chance of guessing the same person every time. However this chance cannot be considered statistically significant, since there isn't enough data. It is certainly possible that Rob cheated (though I personally find that unlikely), but the data we have cannot be used to conclude that.
Kaif I do believe that you unfortunatly did your math wrong as it would mean picking out a sinner not specifically you. Here is the math (result in the last line if you don't want the math) as every time someone gets picked out they leave one less person to pick from, we have to calculate the chances of that specific. If K is "kaif gets picked " And N is "kaif dosn't get picked " With 14 nuns, you then get : the prossibilities to get kaif would be : {K,N,N} {N,K,N} {N,N,K} and every time there is one less possibility. K1 = "kaif gets picked as first choice" K2= "kaif gets picked as second choice" K3= "kaif gets picked as third choice" The probabilities then are : P(K1) =1/14 P(K2)= 1/13*(1-P(K1))= 1/13*13/14 = 1/14 (1-P(K1)) because if K1 true then K2 can't be true) P(K3)= 1/12 *(1 - P(K2)) * (1- P(K1)) = 1/12 * (1 - 1/14) * 13/14 = 1/12 * 13/14 * 13/14 = 0,0718537414965 And or K to be true, you have to get either K1, K2, K3. And since you can't have K1, K2 or K3 at the same time you have : P(K) = P(K1) + P(K2) +P(K3) = 2/14 + 1/12 * 13/14 * 13/14 = 0,2147108843537 On first game, he got picked out of 14 in the natural night. To get these events, you had to get : Kaif dies out of 14 on night one and then get gaif 4 times. You then have as a final probability : 1/14 *( 2/14 + 1/12 * 13/14 * 13/14)^4 = 0,0001518057448 = 0,01518057448%
An easy way to tell if someone is cheating probability wise: if the odds require a number so small it has E-11 at the end, or some number like that, it's probably cheated. For example, 3.333E-14 is probably cheated. Not a full proof method, but the odds are stupid at that point
This game really needs to fix itself, it’s soooo heavily in favour of the matriarch. What can happen is that every time a nun dies, the timer goes longer, giving players more time to dig and get the code, so it’s actually beneficial to hold off on getting 3 at once, waiting to find everyone out and then pressing it. Just one of a few solutions
More time means the matriarch gets to check areas for a 2nd time to see who is missing This game needs AI to move from task to task across the map That would end up making it extremely difficult for the matriarch to keep note of everyone
I was thinking it was a new matriarch video. I then see some of the clips and here I was thinking “did Kaif upload the wrong matriarch video?” I look through the videos to realize nop. There’s never been a matriarch video on the Kiff channel… It was on the vod channel and the SR channel
I did the math and it’s actually a muuuuuuch lower percentage than that it would be a 0.00021564% chance or in fractions a 1/463,736 (Yeah don’t know why but when you add another fraction it multiplies instead so 1/14x1/14x1/14x1/13x1/13 so it will become 1/463,736 since multiplying 1 stays 1 and multiplying all those variables together for the second number gets that answer so 14 x 14 x 14 x 13 x 13)
Can I just say that Rob killed Kaif 5 games in a row! Kaif next game as the Matriarch: Flawless win. Damn! Rob is lucky and Kaif is observant. This is Luck vs Skill.
I like how Kaif was immediately shut down when he realises Rob is the Matriarch
Is this a upload?
@@watcher424 what do you mean?
@@themusicboy9766 I remember seeing this stuff like over one month ago.
@@watcher424 pretty sure it was just clips
@@watcher424you forgot the re
Ah yes, rob taking the concept of "Kaif man, we just hate you so much" to a whole nother level
if you watch i killed emma all the time as its my all time hated name tbh, i just picked names i hated the most
@@BigBoaby nah def hacks, no doubt
@@BigBoaby fair
@@BigBoaby you just have a good gaming chair
@@BigBoaby third time you killed Alex instead of Emma sus
I wouldn’t consider Rob a very lucky person or Kaif an unlucky person but sometimes you just use up your luck for the next 5 years.
God Gamer aint it
One for every time he got Kaif
@@BigBoaby just like that one time on Wolfy?
@@manwithabasicprofilepic exactly
both, the answer is both
I've read people's assessment on this game and i think it still stays the same. If all you had to do to win as matriarch was to notice missing npcs that can't even go missing, while the escapees has to do a mission so far and isolated that guarantees suspicion upon first glance, i don't think there is much to do in the game at all. Like no counterplay, no consequence for misplay from the more powerful side, the only deceit is gaslighting while you are not and cannot do the task, the game is really showing its stiffness.
hey hey, great points, as the dev of the game, you hit the nail on something I've been struggling with when creating it! I envisioned that Sinners could go up and down multiple times during the day, and would communicate the matriarch's position to each other, so the interesting bit would come from timing your actions properly & coordinating with other sinners to come back to your task area before the matriarch reaches it and sees that you're missing. It didn't work out in this version, for a few reasons, namely, I didn't make it obvious that the matriarch shouldn't communicate with sinners, and digging is too time-consuming to allow multiple back&forth per day. Since this video was recorded, I released a few updates to assess some of these points, in the new Monastery map, it's much faster to access & come back from the underground area, and the sinners have an explicit functionality to visually communicate the matriarch's position to other sinners. That doesn't solve the problem you raised completely, but I'm still working on it!
@@chewa3948 hey dev just wanna say I think your game is awesome and I really hope you continue to work on it, I'm in love with the concept and I super appreciate how communicative you are about it. Can't wait to see more!
@@eulesanroselynn121 thanks! will certainly do!
@@chewa3948 I don't play the game personally but from watching videos of it, i feel like there needs to be some sort of punishment to the Matriarch for doing random guesses, like its fine n all but if thats the Default go to is just to call an emergency sacrifice and picking at random i think that is something that needs to be fixed, not sure how but maybe something that gives the nuns some sort of a boost in the next round, not saying remove it as an option just make the Matriarch have to do a bit more of an educated guess or atleast be willing take the debuff for a shot in the dark guess
The math you did was for the odds of any of the 5 sinners being killed on the first night, with nights 4 and 5 assuming that the previous kills were not sinners.
If you want to odds of you specifically being killed, that's 1 out of the remaining group at the time you died at. Which, according to my math, is a 0.00023% chance of happening all in a row.
Doing the math for just a first round death chance, accounting the nights Rob did a triple sacrifice first round giving more chances I got 0.012%(rounded) odds.
@@absqrb The odds of hitting anything increases with being able to hit 3 times in a row. There is only 1 Kaif to be hit, meaning each calculation is done with just that 1 hit, and hitting anyone else in a Sudden Sacrifice increases the odds of everyone being hit the next time, not just Kaif. So while there are 3 chances to hit Kaif, there are also 3 chances for anyone and everyone else to be hit, so it wouldn't change the calculation in that way.
@@justinalicea1590 the triple chance cancels out...
i.e. : 13/14 * 1/13 is still 1/14
and: 13/14 * 12/13 * 1/12 is still 1/14
right? Which would be (1/14)^5 coming to roughly 0.000186% for all 5 games?
@@justinalicea1590 I do believe it would change the chances, as every time someone gets picked out they leave one less person to pick from.
If K is "kaif gets picked"
And N is "kaif dosn't get picked"
With 14 nuns, you then get :
the prossibilities to get kaif would be :
{K,N,N}
{N,K,N}
{N,N,K}
and every time there is one less possibility.
K1 = "kaif gets picked as first choice"
K2= "kaif gets picked as second choice"
K3= "kaif gets picked as third choice"
The probabilities then are :
P(K1) =1/14
P(K2)= 1/13 -P(K1) = 1/13 - 1/14 = 0.00549450549 (-P(K1) because if K1 true then K2 can't be true)
P(K3)= 1/12 - P(K2) - P(K1) = 1/12 - (1/13 - 1/14) - 1/14 = 1/12 - 1/13 + 1/14 - 1/14 = 1/12- 1/13 = 0.00641025641
And or K to be true, you have to get either K1, K2, K3.
And since you can't have K1, K2 or K3 at the same time you have :
P(K) = P(K1) + P(K2) +P(K3) = 1/14 + 1/13- 1/14 + 1/12 -1/13 = 1/12 = 0.08333333333
On first game, he got picked out of 14 in the natural night.
To get these events, you had to get :
Kaif dies out of 14 on night one
and then get gaif 4 times.
You then have as a final probability :
1/14 * 1/12 * 1/12 * 1/12 * 1/12 = 0.00000344466 = 0.00034466%
Well I don't have to do math this time so thanks my dude
Emma: *exists*
Rob: “And I took that personally”
The logic was sound. It'a sheit name.
I mean if Rob can get the highest out of everybody in Hellstuck you know his luck shines sometimes.
I don't think that was luck more so pure Scottish stubbornness.
@@jazzygrapes9614 I was genuinely impressed because I chose him to be the first to rage quit haha.
Rob actually finished hellstuck on a different time and became the only member to do so. You can see his reaction in one of the salt raiders clips of the month.
@@jazzygrapes9614 For a Scotsman he has the luck of the Irish on his side.
So what stops the Matriarch from doing an emergency sacrifice and immediately getting rid of 3 possibilities right at the start of the game? She’d either kill off one or more players, making the future game much easier, or she’d get rid of 3 NPC’s which allows her to survey less total people in a given day
I mean this video shows both halves of that coin - Rob often starts off with the sudden sacrifice, doing what you say, and then during one of the Ebbz games it shows why you DON'T want to sudden sacrifice - because firing it too early means that you can't interrupt them at a later day.
If the matriarch kills 2 or less people the remaining players can speedrun digging
They'd only need 2 more days to get all 3 codes and leave
I see, gotcha
For The record its just cause im a god gamer and was pure and utter skill haha
i somehow have a hard time believing that so many times in a row :)
Ball tingle OP when paired with Matriarch's wrinkled tits
That totally makes you clear of sus
TBH he was fairly consistent, Emma had to die.
it was Kaif with the bad luck to be Emma so many times
The question is, did you give Kaif his ice cream like you said?
Kaif: (Gets immediately killed 5 times in a row)
Sazar: “Yes! That’s how it feels!”
I think the best way to expand the game is a few points which idk if it's possible.
1. Extend the day into three sections
Morning- just as normal start
Evening- switch tasks
Night- voting
2. Every death slows the matriarch. Maybe innocents more slow.
3. 'Devil' stuff pops up the matriarch needs to clear if not cleared the dig speed increases.
4. NPCs will sometimes not go to there tasks, upon being caught they then get sent to there tasks.
5. Sinners can trick NPCs into misbehaving. Like placing graffiti or making a mess. (See 3)
6. If possible add four areas where NPCs can go 'hide' at. Make them further out than normal so the matriarch might not have enough time to check everywhere.
I know this is a late response, but I'd like to give a little input to these suggestions and how they might affect the game:
1 would be a double edged sword, as it both needs the sinners to move a lot more to keep blending in, but also needs the matriarch to pay more attention, making both have to do more
2 would be annoying more than anything, and would make people just start guessing at that point because it'd be unfun to keep playing the matriarch at that point.
3 would probably be the most interesting of the suggestions you have. Make it frequent enough to where it'll happen once, maybe twice a game, but infrequent enough to where they won't know when until it happens
4 & 5 can be pinned together, and would both be good individually, but combined would need to have more consideration in mind unless players are also incentivized to do thinks like graffiti and making a mess
6 would probably also be annoying as it means that, in a larger game, the sinners have at least one that can dig without too much worry every day. It gives them a better chance to win, and while the game is stacked against them, not so much so that, if they had the first day free they'd still have a challenge
Overall, asides from the second suggestion, all of them have merit and are good ideas, although #6 is the one I'd be most wary of if I were one of the game devs, as it'd completely shift the power dynamic.
Number 3 sounds cool, and number 2 could work for if it was only innocent deaths. Rest is kinda iffy.
This isn't nearly as lucky as Kaif catching three killers who were all seered together in Salem
I don’t even think he’s trying to kill kaif anymore.
Rob truly went "It's matriarchin' time!"
just dont be called emma and we are all good
@@BigBoaby rob has spoken dont be named emma lol
@diavolojaegar4363 not wrong
Kaif screaming reminds me of the Orks from 40k.
Kaif: NOOOOOOOO!
Orks: WAAAAAGGGGHHHHH!
Surprised nobody accused Rob of stream sniping. Even if they didn’t think he was, they could’ve trolled him.
9:53 I love how ebbz says the cOwS
You know its good stuff when Kaif has been working on the video since 27/09/22.
The editing is awesome, thanks again for playing it!
Every time rob is matriarch Kaif hears boss music
as someone with the name Emma....... i feel attacked by the amount of Emma's murdered just for having the name :'D my gawd, wonder if an Emma mugged him or something
I am so happy Kaif made a video of this from his Stream. This game was fun to watch
The thing about being subscribed to multiple SR channels, when this came up I was like "wait is this a re-upload?"
the end of the video shows that there is a huge flaw in that you only need to find 2 of the codes, then you can just cycle the last one through all the numbers to get to open the exit and win
Hey Kiaf did you guys do a video of this game in the past on yours or the SR channel? I just have a vague memory of some of the parts in this video and I feel slightly insane because I'm 95% sure I didn't watch a stream of it. Either way I'd like to say thanks man, you're always making amazing content and whenever you upload it's certainly a highlight of my day. Anyway thank you again, and keep being your wonderful self man.
there was a short about rob's luck
Rob just activated super detective mode XD
Just make sure to get your ice cream cause wow that was five games of just execution on you Kaif
Every time i see that Kaif has created a new video, i stop what i am doing and watch it instantly. Thanks Kaif for making such great videos and i hope that the SR Group can grow stronger than every. Well in Doubt what do we do.. WE VOTE STAN OUT
Same I even stop sleeping
Morals of this story? Don't be named Emma if you wanna be a part of Rob's Nunhood
Rob's method is just hilarious.
kaif if two people are digging the same dirt, it’d be way way faster cause u can just keep walking forward
I agree with Rob and Kate. Lemon drizzle cake is amazing.
I’ve always wondered, what is the song kaif uses at the end of his videos?
We need more matriarch. This game is so much fun to watch.
I've been waiting since the short finally it's here
3:02 I love how he just goes I'm so hard rn like what?! 😂
Rob over here saying Emma is a shit name while Bertha, Frances, and Irene are getting off scott free
Is this a repost?? Or was it just posted months ago by others/salt raider channel?
It's always nice to see Rob win a game, even if it's through sheer luck with RDM. Granted you guys could make a anti-RDM rule
You cant, you physically have to kill a nun each night haha
@@Kaiff While yeah, I'd atleast like to see a better reason given than "I don't like the name Emma"
@@chadsullivan3645sometimes, there's just nothing you can do
"I've never liked the name Emma."
Me neither, Rob.
Me neither.
"For potentially thursday" I'd not be able to understand what he said without these subtitles. like what the actual fuck
Eatin me chips and choking from kaifs death sounds😂
"In the world of chance a low probability is still possible no matter how low it is, when you doubt that fact is when you learn this very idea because our universe has a sense of humor." Some guy 2012
In this video kaif understood how stan felt
I've learned a pattern to Rob's behaviour
If he's in a good mood he'll end starting sentences with "right"
If he's salty/tilted/being a big baby, he'll end the sentences with "by the way".
Just did the math assuming that each round is independent, and focusing specifically on the probability that he got Kaif out each sudden sacrifice/guess. The first round was a simple 1/14 since he had 1 guess, 1 was kaif, and there were 14 choices. That is an approximately 7.14% chance. The other 4 rounds are slightly more complicated, but you can figure out the probability by taking the opposite of the probability that rob did not guess Kaif any of the 3 chances he had. This equation comes out to be 1 - (13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12) = approximately 21.43% chance each sudden sacrifice. Since there were 4 sudden sacrifices and 1 normal guess, the full equation is: (1/14) * (1 - (13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12))^4 which is approximately a 0.015% chance. I did not take into account which specific guess in each sudden sacrifice he got Kaif, just that he got him at all, and this was for Kaif specifically.
Looking at it from another angle, if you evaluate the probability that Rob got the same person each time, regardless of if it was Kaif or someone else, the question changes to be (5/14) * (1 - (13/14 * 12/13 * 11/12))^4, since the specific sinner he guesses on the first round doesn't matter, the only thing that does matter is if he did get a sinner the first round. This evaluates to around 0.075%, which isn't much better.
TL;DR:
Rob guessing Kaif specifically each time like he did was around 0.015% likely to happen.
He had an approximately 0.075% chance of guessing the same person every time.
However this chance cannot be considered statistically significant, since there isn't enough data. It is certainly possible that Rob cheated (though I personally find that unlikely), but the data we have cannot be used to conclude that.
Also this game is weighted incredibly heavily towards the Matriarch, even if they guess at complete random. Which they don't have to do, obviously.
Oh and for anyone wondering, the probability of Rob simply getting at least 1 sinner out per round was around 12.5%.
Kaif I do believe that you unfortunatly did your math wrong as it would mean picking out a sinner not specifically you. Here is the math (result in the last line if you don't want the math)
as every time someone gets picked out they leave one less person to pick from, we have to calculate the chances of that specific.
If K is "kaif gets picked "
And N is "kaif dosn't get picked "
With 14 nuns, you then get :
the prossibilities to get kaif would be :
{K,N,N}
{N,K,N}
{N,N,K}
and every time there is one less possibility.
K1 = "kaif gets picked as first choice"
K2= "kaif gets picked as second choice"
K3= "kaif gets picked as third choice"
The probabilities then are :
P(K1) =1/14
P(K2)= 1/13*(1-P(K1))= 1/13*13/14 = 1/14 (1-P(K1)) because if K1 true then K2 can't be true)
P(K3)= 1/12 *(1 - P(K2)) * (1- P(K1)) = 1/12 * (1 - 1/14) * 13/14 = 1/12 * 13/14 * 13/14 = 0,0718537414965
And or K to be true, you have to get either K1, K2, K3.
And since you can't have K1, K2 or K3 at the same time you have :
P(K) = P(K1) + P(K2) +P(K3) = 2/14 + 1/12 * 13/14 * 13/14 = 0,2147108843537
On first game, he got picked out of 14 in the natural night.
To get these events, you had to get :
Kaif dies out of 14 on night one
and then get gaif 4 times.
You then have as a final probability :
1/14 *( 2/14 + 1/12 * 13/14 * 13/14)^4 = 0,0001518057448 = 0,01518057448%
Based 🗿
What youre saying is that it was even more insane? Haha
@@Kaiff exactly
@@jpeg.. Thanks
An easy way to tell if someone is cheating probability wise: if the odds require a number so small it has E-11 at the end, or some number like that, it's probably cheated. For example, 3.333E-14 is probably cheated. Not a full proof method, but the odds are stupid at that point
another video on this? hasn’t there already been a video over Rob’s insane luck/Kaif’s terrible luck for this game
F in the chat for Kaif the Sinner
Is this reupload? Or the other one in salt raider channel?
Mosquitoes be like
7:50
ohh was this uploaded in salt raiders as well? i remember seeing this video before
This game really needs to fix itself, it’s soooo heavily in favour of the matriarch. What can happen is that every time a nun dies, the timer goes longer, giving players more time to dig and get the code, so it’s actually beneficial to hold off on getting 3 at once, waiting to find everyone out and then pressing it. Just one of a few solutions
More time means the matriarch gets to check areas for a 2nd time to see who is missing
This game needs AI to move from task to task across the map
That would end up making it extremely difficult for the matriarch to keep note of everyone
Wow that was a long time from the shorts to be the video 😂though i feel like the shorts is better since you put the goblin 🤔
Is that a re-upload ? I swear i've already seen this video before.
I am convinced he had snipers in his chat.
Thanks for the subtitles, I'm subscribing to your channel :)
2:53 27.09.2022 old wine even better
i have a dejavu feeling watching this
Rob was on fire there haha
Rob ascended into RNGesus
12:01 what is the outro music called! I gotta know
I just could'nt believe it, rob got kaif multiple times? I lost my word, rob do dirty to kaif this time
I was thinking it was a new matriarch video. I then see some of the clips and here I was thinking “did Kaif upload the wrong matriarch video?” I look through the videos to realize nop. There’s never been a matriarch video on the Kiff channel…
It was on the vod channel and the SR channel
this reminds me when he guessed ebbs was the hunter in agrou or whatever that game was called
4:43 perfect round
wasn’t this streamed like 3 months ago
That 100% chance guessing rate is a bit unlikely 😆
When you're so tilted that you become a god at the game.
Hey what is the music in the outro
I don’t think Rob’s cheating, I think it’s just a skill issue.
Yeah that was sus of rob even if he wants to use the name card as an excuse
one question. Hypothesis test?
Ok so my question is if it’s really easy to check where people are how can people fail at being the Matriarch?
I did the math and it’s actually a muuuuuuch lower percentage than that it would be a 0.00021564% chance or in fractions a 1/463,736
(Yeah don’t know why but when you add another fraction it multiplies instead so 1/14x1/14x1/14x1/13x1/13 so it will become 1/463,736 since multiplying 1 stays 1 and multiplying all those variables together for the second number gets that answer so 14 x 14 x 14 x 13 x 13)
that outro music though... what is it?
On paper, Matriarch works, but. It doesn't quite work in the end, honestly You can just do the rounds, see who's missing, and the game is easily over.
Kaif is the best ghost main in matriarch history
Matriarch hates Kaif so much!
at the last round he had guessed 141 like Task Force 141 XD
I am pretty sure, he was told which was Kaif.😂
Is it re upload ?
can we talk about how kaif uses light mode?
I love mafia but nuns
is this a re upload i really. i felt like i have watched this before
Did Rob buy ice-cream for our papa kaif?
Can I just say that Rob killed Kaif 5 games in a row!
Kaif next game as the Matriarch: Flawless win.
Damn! Rob is lucky and Kaif is observant. This is Luck vs Skill.
Wait what, new video??, wasnt this uploaded couple months ago???
Nope this is new to the channel
@@Kaiff Bruh*, watched the video thinking it was an old video...
What is the outroo song I like it
New year new rob luck
So kaif how was that ice cream
Is this a repost?
I am still looking for the outro music's name
im seeing a pattern in these deceit games they somehow find a way to break odds and get lucky
Did kaif get his ice cream?
Finally here it is
Is this reupload??
thered never been a matriarch video surprisingly
anyone knows what's the outro song is named
Big brain plays