Calculating The Odds of Intelligent Alien Life - Jill Tarter
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- Опубликовано: 1 июл 2012
- View full lesson: ed.ted.com/lessons/calculating...
Could there be intelligent life on other planets? This question has piqued imagination and curiosity for decades. Explore the answer with the Drake Equation -- a mathematical formula that calculates the possibility of undiscovered life.
Lesson by Jill Tarter; Animation by TED-Ed
Does anyone else find her voice incredibly calming?
+Morgan Noble too calming. I was almost annoyed and bored at the same time.
Enter a name here Haha :) I get that
Probs ASMR
I was thinking about writing she sounded like a mom reading to her child/children. But then I feared that being construed as sexist.
Swagster Bastard www
I want this woman's voice to read me a bed time story every night
***** Judging by your understanding of the English language you might as well be a "baby".
***** That's even worse! :P
Calm the fuck down it's an English guy to French guy joke :P (Pass the weed around)
+AlchemistOfNirnroot pass the smokeweed around m8.
LJ Germain Few more draws, then I let you kill it...
me too
I come for the science, I stay for the voice
ASMRWhisperLight. Right!
The voice gives me the creeps
+×÷=?@
I really liked this narrator's voice. It's a very calm voice for a very serious matter. Thanks Ted-Ed for another amazing video!
I think many here are missing the point. We must first clearly define what we consider intelligent life first. Many people think that the conditions we live in are suitable for other intelligent life, but this is a complete guess. Even very extreme conditions may be able to support life forms.
bassdewd That's just part of the equation as any attempts to catagorize intelligent life would also be guessing. While extremophiles have been known for a long time and while they do open the possibilities for life existing in different circumstances, most known examples exist in the microscopic form and so no signs of intelligence. Life could exist in ways we haven't thought of, certainly but to assume they do is just a speculative as assuming they don't.
The simple thought is that when trying to find life you have to start with a known quantity, namely what conditions do we know allow life to perpetuate; which we only have one example of, Earth. Looking for something like us is realistically the highest likelihood of finding intelligence.
Extreme conditions may well be able to support life, but intelligent life, with the ability to become technologically advanced, may well be limited to more moderate (as we would understand it) conditions.
Other life forms may also be less suited to our conditions and more suited to their own, for example they may not need as much oxygen as us or any oxygen at all or they may need more oxygen than us. They may also be more suited to less gravity than us or more. Planets that can inhabit intelligent life could reasonably be any because in reality it would depend on the species. Also, what is intelligent life? How can we categorize it? Is it life big enough for us to say? Is it life that thinks? Is it life that produces it's own energy? Is it life that can make noises and walk around on it's own? I think that it can't really be defined into a category because it's just too broad
Lyuiop Qwert
ASMR: science edition
I forgot the topic. instead I fell in love.
Holy shit! I know right?!
I know I'm late but she's 70+ years old, lads. Unless you're into gilfs I'd recommend not judging a book by it's cover lmao
The answer is 6.
*7
66. 6666. 666?
illuminati the answer is 42
Salvete
the answer is gamma
Best voice I've heard so far in TED-Ed. :)
Are you secretly in love?
No way, Andy Anderson's is way better
Best voice I've heard so far in .... my whole life.
Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying. - Arthur C. Clarke
How the case 1 is terrifying?
@@user-bj4un6tp4cbecause that means that once civilization dies, then no one will find us
@@Stardust_Jack Then lets keep it going!
The softness of her voice makes this sound like ASMR.
I strongly believe there is life out there, no matter how unlikely life is. Remember that the universe is so unimaginably big that it is bound more this once, even if we never find or hear them.
yes, but the distances are so vast, that it's best to completely rule out life in other galaxies, as we will never be able to communicate with them anyhow. so we are limited to our galaxy alone. life in low metallicity stars may not even be possible, so that excludes a huge chunk of the galaxy, high metallicity has only become available within the last few billion years, so that may exclude any life older than a few billion years- meaning we may very well be among the first intelligent life to form, and within these small narrow and recent pockets of the galaxy where life is possible, only those way more advanced, or super close to us would be detected.
@@stephenmartinez1 This is fair, but I’m saying that even if we never meet them, or detect them, that I believe they are still out there
@@shinnyii Alien life is definitely out there. Life itself is probably even common- but intelligent technological life must have so many things go right for it to happen. There could even be countless planets full of complex life where intelligent life simply never evolves: either they aren't capable of evolving the proper biology such as hands or the like to manipulate the environment. Our planet would have remained an oasis of complex life for billions of years without ever hosting intelligent life had the dinosaur asteroid not came.
@@stephenmartinez1 Even if Intelligent life is exeptionally rare it exists out those billions of galaxies im sure
Even if we don't take distance into account, you might agree that there _might_ be a good number _more_ than 52 different factors that is needed to for a solar system to harbor intelligent life. You might also agree that it could happen that at least 52 of those factors have a chance of less than 1/52 of being fulfilled. Now look at this video: ruclips.net/video/hoeIllSxpEU/видео.html it's about 52! but we are not excluding any options for the second factor based on the first, so we're dealing with a chance of 1/(52^52). According to ESA the number of stars in the universe might be in the order of 10^24, so if the above guesstimate would be correct, the odds of _any_ intelligent life in the universe would be in the order of 1/(10^65). So we might just be the closest thing to intelligent life the universe ever gets.
The drake equation:
🎵you used to contact me on my satellite, everyday till’ you're discovered🎵
+Mohammed Hamza Could've done it better, but have your like good sir. (Y)
Aleman López Orta *Tips fedora*
No
here hold this L
L not funny didn’t laugh
It's a damn shame that only half a million people watched this.
Why? Because of that equation?
Now there are 3/4 million people watched this.
I watched it and I count for 10.
Ah, well. At least I tried to be comforting.
EDIT: And hey, maybe I'm an alien.
Ah, I guess that didn't work too. Right?
Why? It's completely irrelevant to our existence. We are trapped in our little solar system and we will always be.
yea its a real shame that 3 years ago only half a million people watched this
well if there are billions of galaxies and billions of planets why would we be the olny intelligent ones
Finally a decent comment
Maybe, just maybe, life is extremely rare.
@@JorgeGomez-um9qb yeah, conditions have to be almost perfect to hold life
Ther must be life look how many lifeforms evolved on earth
Millions of life form on earth but Humans are only intellectual. Also earth is protected from millions of years from Asteroids and comets thanks to Jupitar and Saturn and perfect place in Solar system also Thanks to SINGLE moon we have.. This Is perfect conditions. This perfect conditions can be Anywhere is very very Rare indeed.
Two words." Prime Directive. " . That's why we haven't met any yet.
+Danie van der Westhuizen Two words - you're dumb
rustytool100 a Troll that can structure two words in a sentence. I am impressed.
+Danie van der Westhuizen Thank you.
+Danie van der Westhuizen we are still a pre warp civilization.But...maybe they are among us watching closely how we progress ! ;-)
That's what I was thinking!
could you whisper louder please?
Perfect voice for a video of this nature
Drake Disapproval: Drake Memes
Drake Approval: Drake Equation
Asking for "intelligent life" is jumping ahead in my opinion; finding any form of life even the most basic microorganism would be historic.
Probably the biggest discovery since fire
Ok
There must be intelligent creatures out there only a quadrillion planets out there
The Drake Equation needs a many more additions:
Size of Star - a large star burns out quickly,
a small star has to have its planets very close and this causes many different problems in order for it to be in the location where it is warm enough to have liquid
- It would be tidally locked
- It would be so close to the star that solar flares would regularly bath the planet with radiation
- There would be a much small bandwidth of light for photosynthesis
Mass of planet - More Mass = more atmosphere = warmer planet (and the inverse is also true)
Atmospheric composition - what the atmosphere is made of affects life
Those are very important and rarely added
Then there are less important but still have significant impacts:
Tilt of Planet
Length of rotation
Size of moon
Metallic make up.
And those are just the ones I would add as an amateur.
It seems to me that a lot, it not all, of these are just factors that would be considered when determining the values for each of the elements of the equation.
Not really all thouse things are inputs into existing parameters. What the Drake equation actually needs is an L value for each parameter and for planets not to be treated as a 1 and done event but rather as a time-series stocastic walk up and down the complexity heirachy that can then be put through a proper Monte Carlo.
I actually got ASMR tingles from this. love this
I greatly appreciate Ted-Ed videos and their endeavor to replace boring online studies to this kind of thrilling videos.
Drake Equation : Meek Mill + Back to back beat + Twitter fingers = Grammy!
Priceless
I knew there was gonna be a comment like this as soon as I heard drizzy name lmao
When you factor in how unique humans are(a planet that allowed multicellular evolution,
a brain capable of high cognitive functioning,
lifespans long enough to advance knowledge,
a voicebox capable of communicating and transmitting knowledge,
hands capable of writing, giving us a written language capable of recording knowledge and passing it on for future generations,
eyes capable of reading a written language, etc etc etc) its highly unlikely that even earthlike planets would have advanced civilizations like ours.
What a limited perspective.
@@forrestbaer billions of galaxies and we are the only intelligent lifeform
No chance
@@forrestbaer go now
@@Swanchatterjee96 I doubt we are the only 1 in the universe. But they're is a high chance we are the only one in the galaxy
I've never watched a science video that made me cry… until now. I got pretty teared up when I realized that unless we detect other life with which we are able to make contact, that likely means that our own longevity is very short due to our own destructive propensity.
? We haven't destroyed outselves yet. Were in arguably the most peaceful age weve ever been in since we formed societies 10,000 short years ago. You should worry more about cosmic events.
Thank you. This was really helpful.
Her voice is so calming and comforting🥰
This narrator has the PERFECT voice for ASMR
I remember playing around with the Drake Equation a number of years back and playing with the numbers I got everything from 1,000,000+ civilizations per galaxy all the way down to
very informative and to the point
Jill, Your voice is outrageously soothing
"인류의 동행자(alliesofhumanity 닷 오알지 (.org)", "우주의 삶(새매세지 닷 컴 (.com)" 저자 Marshall Vian Summers ,
를 읽어보시기를 추천합니다. 알지 못하는 지금 지구의 상황, 우주에 대해서 알려주는 책입니다. 저는 이 책들을 읽고 ufo나 외계인, 우주에 대해서 1도 관심이 없다가 이런 저런 정보를 찾아보게 되었습니다.
지구 방문의 역사 cafe.naver.com/newmessagefromgod/1511 팩트 체크였습니다. 여기 홈에서 글을 보면 우주에 6천5백억종의 지적 생명체가 살고 있습니다.
It would be funny if intelligent life is hiding itself and all other life from us.
so if intelligent life is hiding life then does that make us the intelligent life? for an example the voyager spacecraft contains human evolution history but it doesnt showcase the other species on earth
Humans are AN intelligent lifeform. In your example, you are practically correct. It lacks intention, which actually provides an accurate contrast to the intelligent life I was referring to.
Hm Darshan false. they are vinyl attached on both Voyager spacecraft who show different species of our planet.
And also a common resolution of the Fermi paradox - could be that civilizations which announce their prescence meet the same fate as an antelope walking up and identifying themselves to a hungry lion.
i loved all the concepts here and the oration
Narrator's voice was so soothing and calming i couldn't make it without being asleep to the end of the video.
Frank Drake:
“ E.T do you love me, are you out there.”
To all the ppl that think "There has to be intelligent life out there, the universe is so big": You have to also take the other side of the equation into account.
You might agree that there _might_ be a good number _more_ than 52 different factors (distance to sun, angle to sun, gas giants in the right position to catch incoming meteors, moon, the right composition to develop the right atmosphere, no massive nuclear wars, gulf stream, invention of the sail at the right time, theory of electromagnetism... you might disagree with some of these, but agree that they might be many) that is needed for a solar system to harbor intelligent life. You might also agree that it could happen that at least 52 of those factors have a chance of less than 1/52 of being fulfilled. Now look at this video: ... or maybe don't because RUclips is messing with me, anyway it was about 52! but we are not excluding any options for the second factor based on the first, so _we're_ dealing with a chance of 1/(52^52). If you think I'm way out of line, think about why our planet didn't develop intelligent life for hundreds of millions of years of "nearly" the same circumstances as today.
According to ESA the number of stars in the universe might be in the order of 10^24, so of the above guesstimate would be correct, the odds of _any_ intelligent life in the universe would be in the order of 1/(10^65). ... _We_ might just be the closest thing to intelligent life the universe _ever_ gets.
I watch Ted Ed videos just because I find the narrator's voice so relaxing . I finally found the best voice...
I feel more relaxed after listening to thisJill Tarter - the ultimate narrator
Her voice is so conforming
지능을 가진 외계생물체가 존재할 확률을 알기위한 재미있는 드레이크의 정확한 답이없는 방정식에 대하여 배워보는 시간이 되었니다. 정말 재미있는 시간이었습니다. 감사합니다.
저도 같은 생각이에요.
What a sweet and beautiful voice! I was able to go through the entire video because of it.
Jill Tarter has such a soothing voice! Can someone please get her to do audiobooks?
I remember my physics teacher (awesome teacher) gave us an entire test on drake and how to estimate ridiculous things using drakes method. One was to find out how many atoms were in your body..... He gave us a test on this :((( I was completely off but i had the right train of thought so he gave me an A-. Pretty awesome physics teacher.
why is she whispering
scientist ASMR shawty
Because we're ignorant infants, and she's telling us a bedtime story.
ZAcrackedgamer,GG 12 because aliens might hear u..
Jill Tarter might speak at my college next year! So excited!
Such a beautiful soothing voice.
What if one of the variables is zero.
They can't be. We know for certain that all of these factors are more than 0 because we know of at least 1 place in the universe where life has developed, and become intelligent, and has tried to make contact, and that intelligent life has survived for a couple of X0.000 years (might be short in universal terms, but more than 0 nontheless).
GiaIsTheBest
Which planet in the universe has been known to have tried to make contact with Earth?
Earth.
GiaIsTheBest
Earth contacted itself?
It did and does, in fact. We are a highly interconnected species at this point.
Back to the main point in my original comment; The Drake equation estimates the number of technologically advanced civilisations in the Milky Way galaxy, and we know that there is at least 1, ours. Therefore we know that neither the answer to nor any of the factors of the Drake Equation can be 0.
There is also the factor of using radio before internet. Cables are much faster than radio, given the option, maybe they would never find a reason to use radio in the first place.
what
+Valken thats very smart
That's F_c?
Great video!!!Great narrator!!!Great animation!!!
Wow, Jill is amazing! Did you see the way she handled Avi's remarks in Feb 2021? I trust this scientist whole heartedly. Her tone is perfect!
The speaker sounds like a quieter version of Leela from futurama.
Why do all videos on aliens assume that aliens need the same or similar conditions of living as we do?
Because we only have one data point - ourselves!
I'm just going to play this on a loop all night long... her voice... its so nice.........
Max Zeltser, the probability of the simplest self replicating cell we know of randomly forming is 10 to the 40000th power. 10 with 40000 zeros. The number of atoms in the universe is 10 to the 80th power. Do you have an answer to this?
Hi y'all. I am an alien. And I gots somethin' to say (in American English, of course).
We are NOT visiting your planet. So relax. Or be filled with despair - i don't care. Either way - it is not happening. Look, there are countless of species in the universe - though you are rare and interesting, you are not _that_ special. We do like learning about you, but we are perfectly happy where we live. Your planet is well suited for you, but not that well suited for us. The gravity on your world is a bit off. The light is a little too bright for our taste. And then you've got "days"... our world is tidally locked, so, meh, not thrilled. Oh and as you probably already know your water is not that precious - plenty of it in the Universe (in far more accessible forms). Your women - OK, there you have a point. Helen of Troy was a total babe. But these days traversing light years of dangerous debris for Kim Kardashian is not really worth the risk.. We are just too far apart. Besides, to meddle in your affairs would mess up our studies. So, instead, we have like a dozen powerful (yet tiny) telescopes parked in your Oort cloud - good luck finding them btw - and a few bots pretending to be insects. And one fish. But that's it, really. No flying saucers, no abductions. So quit making shit up.
Your planet is beautiful, but I hate to break it you - they are all beautiful. Space is very very big and Life in the Galaxy is very very old. Oh, and everyone calls their planet "ground" (i.e. "Earth"), even many generations after they'd figured out they are not the center of their star system - geocentric mentality runs deep. Except for dolphinoids - the names of their worlds usually means "water", but... you get the idea. Anyway, I digress. My point is - you are a lot like everyone else and not some rare and coveted jewel of the Galaxy, to be had at any expense. So rest assured - we are not about to invade.
And, no, we are not going to save you either. Sorry. Whatever fate awaits you - I am afraid you and you alone are its architects. We have seen many, just like you, unable to find a way to coexist with yourselves and your environment in the long run. We have seen them go. How hopeful they were to colonize the Universe, not realizing that _in that very need_ lay the seeds of their own undoing. Their sci-fi movies described their species as important or even dominant (wtf?) in the Galaxy. Fighting, blowing shit up. Yeah... not a good sign. Oh sure, there were plenty of individuals that called for reforms and coming to senses, to see the "big" picture. Sometimes it helped. But usually those guys were done in a few centuries after transmitting their wonders and hopes of contact to some distant star.
And yet we have also seen many succeed and live long lives. Those of us who did, gave each other high-fives and shared some knowledge/perspective on the Cosmos (due to our unique vantage points). One time even invited neighbors for tea and biscuits.
I'll give it to y'all straight - the odds of you making it right now do not look good. Maybe 50/50. Tops. Personally, I remain hopeful that you will make it, but my good friend Bob - he is like, "nah, they are fucked". The inhabitants of HL-AF-8903-C agree. And they are usually right about this stuff. So it doesn't look good, although ultimately only time will tell.
Look, we can't tell you how to get it right. Besides, each case is different. If your solution will last (as it must) it needs to come from you, it needs to be rooted in your very nature. If you won't make it, well, it will be a sad day, no doubt about that. But we have seen this time and time again, so you know, we will raise a glass to those of you who had some sense, and tried to do the right thing, despite your fucked up genetic and cultural baggage. We'll say a few nice words, and move on.
But to be perfectly honest, we would reeeeally like you to get your shit straight. The more outlets for Awareness in the Universe, the more chances for self-reflection for the Cosmos - the better. Besides, there is little else as far as intelligent life is concerned in your neck of the woods, and we would either have to wait for the squirrels to evolve and take over (which could take millions of years) or we would have to move our telescopes to another star system, and that takes a while too. We'd rather avoid either option. So, like, please. Try not to fuck it up. Best of luck!
Bob (we are all Bob).
vovka-morkovka oh my word! Guys! one of them spoke to us. this is mins blowing! are there any life in our galaxy? just point us in the right direction. please? oh and what's your name?
vovka-morkovka I know I'm a bit late, but that was amazing. Made my day in fact. Thanks for taking the time to write something that long.
Luke and His Tardis any time dude! You are welcome, and thank you for reading something this long - it ain't too common these days. Take care! 😉
+vovka-morkovka This was brilliant. Well done!
+vovka-morkovka I suppose going to a foreign place and picking up on the swear words isn't just an Earth thing.
Nice work there!
First of all, we know that for many of us living in 2016: Life = Scary
I agree with the three fs getting smaller after each, and that longevity is a HUGE factor. I need to add that light can also be used as a communication form.
First Contact is probably my most looked forward to day i can imagine, whether they call out in peace or simple recognition, or if they come down in huge ships to wipe us all out, either way all im really looking for is a simple "we're here, you're not alone". damn near brings we to tears thinking about it, i can't frickin' wait
I doubt a lot that L is large
Technology did not create our problems (it amplified them), nor will it solve them. The problems that threaten our future existence are due to the flawed assumptions and resulting vision of our civilization. We cannot grow indefinitely since the planet is finite, and at our current doubling rate, we would need to colonize the entire galaxy in a relatively short period of time -- something technology could never hope to achieve.
Our only hope to increase our "L" is to move beyond civilization by abandoning our flawed assumptions and finding new ways to live. If that means we have to put our exploration of the cosmos on the back burner for a bit, then so be it.
I stand corrected. I saw a picture of them too after I already posted my comment on online. One picture I saw shows 3 of them, they get rid of as much light from the star to capture EM radiation from the planets-- not much detail but dots, but still pretty cool!
I found myself leaning into the screen because of Jill's voice not once but twice. I felt she was telling me something personally. Anyway, I think people need to remember than intelligent life would most likely be, well, alien. I mean, for all our sophistication we are still working with a set of terrestrially specific senses, impulses and brains all evolved for life on this planet. Another intelligent species would have another set of all of those things. They may even have emotions we don't.
Is it just me, or does she kinda sound like a female Carl Sagan?
WOW!
The presentation was outstanding madam.
Jill Tarter was an actual character in my favorite science fiction book, the swarm by Frank Schätzing
Calculating The Odds of Intelligent Alien Life.
Doesn't actually calculate anything -.-
It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them to be in. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination.
-hgttg
+Jack Drewitt you realise that if not every one of the infite worlds is inhabited, that the number of worlds that IS inhabited is also infinite?
Wouter Kant tell Douglas Adams not me lol
+Wouter Kant so: ∞ - 1 = ∞ ?
+Squall Leonhart I don't know the exact mathematical rules for infinity, but i do know that infinite minus one is not a finite number
and neither is inifinite divided by a finite number
Wouter Kant the first mathematical rule of infinity is that you dont talk about infinity, the second mathematical rule of infinity is that you DONT talk about infinity, lol
Sagan's estimate of the Drake equation was something like a dozen or so advanced civs in our galaxy, but his estimates of number of stars with planets around them was very very low. Given what we've learned about exoplanets, we can raise the estimate of that variable a lot, and you get something in the neighborhood of a few thousand advanced civilizations, even with all the other variables being extreme long shots. Cool.
This video is out of this world
The answer is obviously 42
wrong it's 7!
No, no no. It's 42. End of story!
its doge (epilogue)
Does anyone here know what each variable is?
DocterCool LotsaCool no... but please tell me when yo do find them out
The vieo has interesting info, but it gets boring, because there is no ambient music & the voice of the narrator sounds like it wants to put you to sleep
I fell asleep lmao
Im sorry you have such a short attention span
ShietEverywhere Attention span has nothing to do with it. If you knew how peoples brain work, you would know that an animation with bright colors won't do it. You have to put auditory stimulation aswell. Im sorry you have such a boring brain.
Lmao nice one man! My boring brain salutes you! Its an educational video not a Michael Bay movie...did your professors colour code all your lecture notes for you while providing interesting dialect too?
ShietEverywhere No, but a track from Stellardrone or _Algol_ Would have been better than just her voice
Any outside intelligent life will for the most part in structure, similar.
Similar ways of feeling pain, similar way of absorbing nutrients. Uhh, some other things. Emotion, neural cells, cells in genral. Maybe not an oxygen breather though
So fascinating
Good message.
Now we have to teach them about how such Undeniable Grace ought to reflect in their lives.
Excellent video
thanks for your contribution to society.
Please search for Jill Tarter and watch her other videos on RUclips. Her studies are very interesting.
Wonderfully clear explanation. Yes our uncertain longevity is the beast in the paradox ! Will we tame it ? OR will it silence us? The universe does not care. And we must care enough to change what needs changing to secure humanity,s future. ‘the answer, dear friend, lies not in our stars, but in ourselves ‘ !
I've heard some interesting counter-arguments on whether or not we will ever be able to make contact with another intelligent species. The biggest one being that thumbs are actually an evolutionary dead end as it appears that once a species develops thumbs, it learns to build things before it learns to ask whether or not it should build them.
We're a species so obsessed with whether or not "we could", we rarely stop to ask "if we should".
I love her voice. I'm going to watch it again
This equation is genius! I love it!
carl sagan first taught me this with the cosmos series
that's fc (3:36). It's a specific probability with the restriction that the civilization develops communication through manipulation of electromagnetic waves.
@Saudade Duende That's interesting. Is that what you think from personal analysis, or do others agree?
É divertido procurar vida inteligente fora da Terra. O problema é saber como lidar com ela depois de encontrar.
probably the most soothing voice ive heard
How you going to make an equation that you can't fill in any of the variables
Although the drake equation would accurately predict the probability of an intelligent civilization existing and being able to make contact the f factors and L factor are almost impossible to model given the amount of information we have. Fl in particular would be hugely important but kind of redundant because if we found organic life elsewhere it would already be such a massive discovery. Also there's the consideration that these factors probably drastically differ based on the time and spatial orientation of the planets within the galaxies they inhabit. For example it would be hard to comprehend how stable planetary formations could occur to support life very early in the development of the galaxies and the spatial orientation is important when considering radiation effects from supernovae and other phenomena. Interesting subject for sure, the fermi paradox is another topic of interest related to this if anyone is interested.
Also I'm not sure how N could be approximated by L, given the fact that the f factors are going to almost surely be infinitesimally small that L would literally have to be on the order of trillions to outweigh those small factors. Obviously this is orders of magnitude larger than the age of the universe. Thought provoking video nonetheless.
I agree with you, the probability of us being the only ones is very remote given the amount of space and the different ways that life is able to form. But how crazy would it be if this really is the first planet the have life capable of exploring in other places?
Today, Drakes equation has added one more part to this equation at the front end-- which is the probability that the universe will start out with physical constants which may yield to every subsequent possible calculation ultimately resulting in life.
Dr. Hugh Ross, P.H.D. in astronomy, speaks to this point extremely well. Worth a look.
i love this animation
I swear I fell asleep half way through. I liked it!
It says go to the website for the full lesson... but that is the full clip???
That would not change the equation, or the outcome. It would only change the time factor in them detecting us, or us detecting them. See 4:50 to 6:00 - variability.
I think the point still stands that its an interesting perspective to look at with this equation in regards to biological advances adjusting that equation, otherwise it might seem a bit useless to some. only a couple of years ago the common ancestor question was a bit more open too. the contradicting study against mono lake was not fully conclusive although yes close enough and is not widely publicised so i guess i missed it!
I am not involved in science other than appreciation from outside.
There is only one planet with life on it and the astounding balance of nature up on it. And considering that we have a limited time of life, fulfil every given minute with happiness, kindness and love. And most of all, say thank you, to the One that has created us and all the majesty that surrounds us ☺
It's an estimating formula. As long as we don't have good data, all we can do is guess.
You'd be surprised, how many results have been found by educatedly guessing (using little hints of data, then guess what the result might be) and then checking that guess.
It's a relatively common method in mathematics and it's partially why that's actually quite a creative subject.
However, in this case we can make an educated guess but we can't check (yet) wether it fits. Only time (data) will tell.