#18 Nine Months of Research on Tesla Battery Day // + Projections!
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- Опубликовано: 25 июл 2024
- This video is the culmination of 9 months of research on Tesla Battery Day and also includes projections, estimates, and insights as a result of that research. It's the eighteenth and final video of the Lithium Mine to Battery Line series to investigate what Tesla unveiled at Battery Day.
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Timeline
0:00 Intro
1:24 Lithium Clay + Salt Extraction
3:51 Timeframes for LiOH and Cathode Production
4:25 Nickel
6:04 Pure Nickel and Cathode Reactor
6:47 Interim Summary 1
8:31 Cathode Material
9:20 Tesla Silicon
11:26 Fast Charge Capability
12:55 Silicon + LFP
13:31 Interim Summary 2
16:29 Dry Battery Electrode (DBE)
17:40 4680 Copycats
21:02 The Tesla 4680
23:47 Alien Technology
25:25 Electrode Yield and Recycling
27:40 Structural Battery
29:38 Gigacasting
30:34 Implications
31:12 Energy Density
30:30 Predictions vs Reality
34:23 Range
36:16 Cost
38:14 Model 2 Production Cost
41:01 4680 Original Timeline
42:01 4680 New Timeline
43:34 "Volume Production"
44:34 Reliability Concerns
47:41 Kato Road is a Flywheel
53:37 100 GWh of Cells?!
55:28 Panasonic
58:44 2022 Cell Supply Forecast
59:13 Forecast to 2030
1:00:59 Materials Supply
1:03:32 Vehicle Production
1:05:47 Competing Tech
1:07:01 Tesla's Technological Advantages
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said 
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2:40 I always wanted to extract some clay from my lithium. Lol :D
Whoops! Reverse that 🤓
Was just about to post that lol XD
Just seeing if you were paying attention! LOL
@@thelimitingfactor wow this was truly superb viewing. Appreciate the huge amount of time and effort you have put in over the last 18 months.
It does however leave me with a few questions that i hope your answers will put me at rest.
Firstly Kato Rd was a simple factory with the only major alterations being the addition of a 2nd level for offices. At least that was what we were told. Nonetheless it is a but think that Elon has been taught how to sandbag these days and given that the battery day was back in September sort of tells me that there is a warehouse nearby with a shit ton of batteries stored even though they were saying they were having trouble producing at scale. Some sort of production would have taken place before the reveal of Kato Rd and they are supposedly working 24/7 at that plant.
Secondly I am struggling with the diffence between the believed areas for the battery manufacturing plants at Berlin and Texas. From the drone footage of Berlin it shows an enormous amount of seriously heavy duty footings or foundations.
Texas on the other hand has nothing like Berlin otherwise they would have built it the same way before they erected the 4 floors above To my recollection there were only 2 pits dug and lined before the structure started taking shape.
So here we have 3 different sites for the battery manufacturing and all 3 are vastly different from one another. I know Tesla are fast at changing direction but this is all very confusing to me anyhow.
Can you please shed any light on this from what you know cause there is something very mysterious about it and I'd love to know your thoughts.
Oh and one last thing. Elon has stated numerous times that Berlin would be the largest battery plant in the world. I know he doesn't mean footprint and is talking KWH but all things considered the area set aside for batteries at Texas is 4 x massive floors. Perhaps Berlin is currently building the cathode plant now and the battery plant comes later and Texas is still yet to build their cathode plant named Operation Bobcat. Rumour is that Bobcat stands for Build Our Battery CATode. Pretty clever hey.
We'll finally have an easy way to get our hands on all that valuable clay!
The holy grail of Tesla battery info!
Now, not just batteries!
Still… amazingly research from the sideline 🧐
Knowledge is new entertainment for me
Edu-tainment is the term I’ve heard for it. I’m right there with ya. 🤯 👍
@@737smartin I thought I was the first one to come up with this quote😅
Bingo you are right!!
I find it hard to watch normal TV as I am not learning
I love RUclips as I can learn about anything I want
Its addictive
Some: nothing new was announced on battery day, all boring
The Limiting Factor: talks about it for more than 6 hours
Nice work, i love this series.
The best praise that I can give to you..... Normally, on RUclips, I watch all videos, including yours, on 2X speed, because the fluff overwhelms the data. For this video, not only was I forced to downgrade the speed to 1X after the first few impressions, I, at multiple times, was forced to stop the video to absorb the images and data presented!
In effect, this video, in my professional and humble opinion, is worth a million bucks. And I am embarrassed and sorry to admit that I have not enough money to pay you for your work..... Truly, you can be proud of this video and the data produced. Your analysis, conclusions, and projections, right or wrong, was well presented, well researched, well documented and supported, and something I could only hope to ever achieve.. It drives me nuts when I see or read a scientific presentation that waffles in their conclusions and convictions.
Analysis is an artform and you have exceeded expectations.
Good Job, Sir!
Thank you.
Yeah, these videos take some chewing, lol All good, not everyone can support the channel financially, but I appreciate the kind words!
C'mon, now! It's only a few bucks/mo & think of how much this moderates downside FUD pressure on our investments (assuming you have a few shares).
I fast forwarded on your reply using x3.0 speed, as it was filled with enough fluff data i fell asleep 3x trying to read it.
@@garywilburn7384 lol Thanks!
Procrastination at work has never been more fun. Especially that this is "the last" episode on this series.
The Limiting Factor is university grade material. I've learned so much.
Thank you.
Boss looks across....
Sees puzzled look on your face...
Realises it's Monday...
"Are you watching TLF at work again!!??"
😁
@@rogerstarkey5390 🤣😂
The work that went into this video is amazing 🤯
Thank you for everything you’ve done on this series and all your other work. It should be required viewing for any serious investor.
Agreed!
Wow. Thanks, Jordan, for your clearly organized and thorough presentation. Your research amazes me. Your analysis may top that. What a wonderful future we can anticipate.
This has to be the most well-researched RUclips video I have ever seen. Remarkable and very helpful to Tesla investors. Well done! Thank you!
Everydayastonaut's documentary's on rockets are pretty deep down the rabit hole as well
@@Mr2winners As is Ticker Symbol U for ArkInvest. Brainiaks are awesome!
I never thought I'd sit through a 1:13:58 presentation on batteries, and yet, here I just did it. You did an awesome job at maintaining my interest. Very valuable info and in ways in which even someone marginally technical can understand. Kudos. And hope you get better from your cold quickly.
WOW.
Honestly, if just this episode was a 2-3 part mini series (with and breaks, of course) on Discovery, with Morgan Freeman narrating, it would be hailed as a triumph.
Well done indeed.
I'd say that with your cold lowering your voice, you sound just as about as good as Morgan.. Great narration!
Watched your entire series. What a wild ride. Thank you.
🤜🏻🤛🏻 Thanks for watching John! You're most welcome! Impressed. Some of it was pretty damned dense...most in fact, lol.
@@thelimitingfactor Take a breather, you've outdone yourself! Wash, rinse, repeat.
Btw, if Keto started over a year ago, then shouldn't they have ramped to full "mini-gun" chat by 2020Q4? That would mean another 4+ months ahead of your (understandably conservative) timeline to build stocks to allow the new factories to spit cars at near optimal rates from the git go. Possible on the optimistic side? (Ans. "If it has to happen, it will happen.")🤗🤗🤗
Hot Damn, you did it.
Wow, this was fantastic! Thank you.
Congratulations on a truly monumental effort. It's going to fun (and profitable) to benchmark your predictions vs the real world in the coming years!
Fingers crossed! 😀
You are a rockstar, my friend. This series has been erudite, edifying and fascinating - thank you so much!
This was really incredible work. Thank you.
And he came down from the mountain and carried with him 18 Lithium Mine to Battery Line episodes engraved in silicon! Congratulations Jordan on an epic work of biblical proportions.
🤣🤜🤛
I am blown away by the depth and attention to details this video contains. Your are an amazing for doing all this work and sharing your fruits of labor for free.
Thanks man! Kind of for free...it's the Patreon supporters that make it possible :D. But, for those who can't pay in some way, definitely free. This is why I don't put the information on a private site. I want to raise the level of discourse.
Nine month was a long time but up to the last seconds of this video, it was a gentle delivery. Call this baby Elongate....(tusk) ;)
Well done Jordan, well done. Thank you
Battery factory has started in Berlin btw, it's difficult as the locals are only allowed to fly drones Fri-Sun, whereas you get daily videos from Texas so there is a lot going on at Berlin we never see, equipment deliveries etc. So despite what some have claimed it's impossible to tell what stage the plant is at.
Wow, Jordon. This is truly impressive work!. It looks like I'll have to view it again to make adequate sense of it all.
Love the series, so nice to come across a stream with real content, real technology, real chemistry and real physics.
Phenomenal work, I've been binge watching your series and it is some of the more detailed and informative work on youtube.
Amazing work. Love this. Thanks for breaking everything down SO clearly and yet concisely. A++!!
So much to unpack. Impressive assembly of Tesla battery production information. At the next Tesla Battery Day presentation I expect to see Jordan on the stage.
This is stellar work and something to be very proud of. I am so glad I am subscribed to this channel! I hope you will continue to research things that interest you and share it with us, you make very dense subjects fun and interesting, because what is happening is VERY EXCITING!
Love that you reference so another great RUclipsrs work and give them credit. Great info! Keep it up
Congrats on making it to the end of the series; I can imagine it was an incredible amount of work and research! Thank you for your contribution!! 😊
Thanks for sticking in there! :D
Here have over 1h of “key points” 😅
I love your dedication!
This is the problem with some Tesla YT channels, they don’t see the battery raw materials shortage. Mines take 4-7 years to finally be fully permitted, the battery supply chain needs to be made aware to everyone. Especially graphite* anode material since it’s in every battery cell chemistry and it’s forecasted to have a supply shortage by 2023!
Top-level, ultra-professional and comprehensive analysis. Superb work that digs deep into the subject, yet remains compelling viewing. True - your audience needs a fair amount of knowledge in the first place, but that just means your audience is educated and intelligent. Thank you for all the very hard work in this project.
Amazing work and a great finale! Thank you for all your efforts shining light on all of these various factors. Fascinating stuff.
You've become to Tesla / Batteries what "Everyday Astronaut" is to SpaceX. Deeeeeep dive videos with fantastic understanding of the underlying tech. What an amazing series. Kudos!
Thank you for your hard work. this takes me more than an hour to understand(probably 50% of what you try to says) but still it 's really worthy. Great job man!
Fantastic info Jordan! Thank you for all of your hard work.
I *really* appreciate the amount of effort you've put into these videos' details and the amount of deep background knowledge you weave into the presentation.
Very good info and well worth the watch. Thanks for all your hard work in making this one !
Long time coming. Congratulations! Truly amazing work Jordon! Get your health back soon!
Thanks!
Wow! That is the most complete and comprehensive coverage of telsa cells I have ever seen. Well done seems like a trite understatement !!!
Thanks for your support Marvin!
Buddy, this video changed my mind. You got me to watch this complex maze of stuff in a sitting and sitll enjoy it. Thank you so much!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Again an AMAZING video from Jordan 👍👍👍😎🍺🍻
Please all of us : let's support the brilliant work of that man ! 🗽
I am truly impressed with the level of detail you have provided alongside your genuine insight and useful interpretation. Hats off to the brilliant work you done! Liked and sub`ed for sure.
This is just brilliant content. Thankyou for the immense amount of effort you’ve put into this series and even into this video.
Very information dense. Even as a casual observer I will come back to this for reference. Most pauses/min of any youtube video. Huge thanks.
LOL, yeah, it's an information firehose
very, very, very useful and valuable informations in such a clear, organized sentences! Even for non-English natives! It has been great ride with the channel and no doubt I`d be waiting with the time to come. Keep it up!
🤜🤛🤠
Jordan: This is one of the most comprehensive Analysis I have seen on Tesla so far. Thanks for sharing.
You're videos are absolutely top-tier, Jordan.
Goodness Jordan, this is your best video yet. And considering the massive trove of information, including detail blueprints, plans and battery manufacturing process descriptions for the Battery Factory in Berlin that was uncovered by Tobias Lindh on Twitter today, you will have material for the rest of the year (at least). Thank you!
Absolutely amazing content and research. I may become a Patreon simply based on the amount of research and value you provide. Much is still over my head, but I think I follow the major points. Super helpful as an informed investor. Keep up the great work!
🤜🤛🤠
Great job! I have a feeling I'll be rewatching this from time-to-time.
Great series! We are now relative experts on battery chemistry, production and analysis because of you. (Relative compared to most investors...)
Bravo! Absolutely brilliant series and summary. Thank you.
The battery building in Berlin is still working on foundations. The building in Austin is almost structurally complete. Steel is complete, roof decking is complete, concrete at the above floor levels is above 60% complete. The final roof is most likely a month away if the weather cooperates. Upper levels will finish concrete in the same or less. Plumbing is already being worked on at ground level. The Cathode building is still completing foundation work, rain has slowed down the dirt work.
This video is INSANE! Best video EVER on Tesla.
Very nice summary, hope you are well again!
Awesome, always top quality content Jordan! 😎👏
Jordan your Video's are always over and above, I can't believe all the info you have packed into this Video. Really appreciate all the effort you put in. 🙂
You're most welcome buddy!
The amount of work that went into this series is amazing. Great work.
Wow so in-depth. Congratulations the entire series. It's an Analytical work of art!
Watched this one twice and probably will revisit it shortly. What an achievement Jordan. Thank you. 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼
Nice work! Thank you! We live in an amazing time! Let’s hope it’s a peaceful time and we pull together to realize our potential.
Duuude, awesome video. And I'm not even that interested in batteries to begin with. That's why I'm all day in youtube because of quality content like this. Congratulations
Your work Is amazing. I did pick up one goodie on the model S reveal with Elvon voiced increased Super Charging rates up to 350 watts which is require to reach the faster charging rates. The reveal also didn’t elaborate on battery size. As a Tesla investor your presentations are number one.
Absolutely amazing research! Much love for sharing!
This type of dedication is amazing!!!!
That was excellent, thank you for this series
Replace the Plaid+ with Roadster. Elon wants to take the supercar crown.
The cold gas thrusters may push Roadster beyond supercar into hypercar territory. Plaid Model S will become the most affordable sub 2 second supercar ever produced. Will probably go on to become the largest production run of a sub 2 second car ever. While passengers play games in the back seat. It will truly live up to its own hype!
Amazing & insightful capstone to an excellent series. Thank you!
🤜🤛🤠
Well done! This was better than a movie.
Excellent video, bravo! Your info has the added advantage of documenting Tesla’s progress and step changes.
Such a great work. Thanks for the effort and job well done.
4:28
The one company in the Tesla supply chain no one is talking about in detail yet (and would love to get other's input) is Queensland Pacific Metals. They are solar powered and use nitric acid leaching at atmospheric pressure to extract all valuable metals from lateritic ore. It is a key reason the project is expected to be less capital intensive than other Australian nickel-cobalt developments based around high pressure acid leach (HPAL) processing technology.
Whereas HPAL plants require the use of complex, titanium-lined autoclaves that can withstand high pressure, the DNi Process (Direct Nickel) will allow the use of standard grade stainless steel at atmospheric pressure - much simpler processing equipment. What previously used to require 1.2 tonnes of tailings to 1 tonne of ore is also looking at being recycled. This company solves a lot of issues surrounding nickel in the battery sector as they are zero liquid discharge, zero solids discharge, low greenhouse gas intensive with the possibility to become a zero carbon nickel producer/processor. Their final product is battery grade nickel and cobalt sulfate produced from start to finish in an eco friendly way. From what i've seen this is a world first in the nickel industry, but would like to know more if anyone has researched or knows of any similar companies.
p.s. they provide their products to LG Chem who provide to Tesla and possibly also to Samsung (2 of the largest lithium ion battery manufacturers in the EV space globally)
interesting, i dont think there is anything similar to that from what i know
Reminiscing your rise from pre O'Reilly Auto parts intro ad to wiki-battery mainstay. You've (deservedly) come a long way. 💪🏼
This was fantastic! The best video ever about this theme. Thank you very much.
Thank you Jordan. You're an inspiration.
Keep that gravelly Maury Safer-like voice, Jordon. Love the extra gravitas.
9 months of research deserves lots of likes and comments. Well done in providing this information to everyone.
Wow. A massive amount of work must have gone into this. Thank you.
Yes, a new limiting-factor-video!
Amazing piece of work THANK YOU.
Wow! Wow! Did I say Wow! Thank you for thinking in 3 D it will take me a few weeks to process all of these info. Thanks Jordan!
Great series! Waiting the next ones
🏆👏👏👏 I'm only 20 minutes in and already feel like I'm getting briefed from the future. No clue how you get all that you do, congrats and kudos to you!!
May have missed this from previous videos, but at what point do you think Redwood Materials will be in a position to significantly provide Tesla with Li (or other materials)? Meaning to say how much Li has already been dug out and placed in products that are now at the end of their life cycle?
4680 cell blueprints will almost certainly give Tesla much needed leverage to maintain supply and their position in the industry. I imagine that the manufacturing software components are something that Tesla will supply for a fee and stymie efforts to replicate the physical components of the battery manufacturing process by other manufacturers; essentially Tesla will make them an offer they can't refuse - like saying you know you can't beat us, so join us.
Lol I only had to wait 7 minutes to get the answers from the video...
My man! Thanks for the support and the kind words!
Excellent review !!! Thank you for all your hard work !!!!
honestly, 300 miles is plenty of range for me. I'll take an improved LFP pack with better longevity, if they stick it in the Y
So many months following the battery day, excellent material.
Also looking forward to that Lithium-Sulfur series :)
Very well done, thank you for all your efforts, keep up the good work!
👌 so good, popcorn is included. Top notch researcher and jounalist. 😎👊
Thanks very much, this is fascinating, very complicated & complex info explained in plain language that is easy to understand. 🙂
Extra extra extraordinary. So so Good! Thank you very much!
Amazing stuff, wow! I'm mind blown 🤯. Very well done
Great video! Keep up the great and important work!
You are so blessed with the voice you have. You could go pro.
I really love this channel! Great work, will support on Paetron for sure. I own quite some Tesla shares, but when I seen your profound analysis I just want to buy more shares, lol. They will change the world. For me it‘s clear that Tesla will become the most valuable company on planet Earth. Just because they will solve a very important problem of the future.
This is a hell of a video. Wow. Great work!
Wow, what a pierce of work you ‘ve done there
Highly informational and educating👍👍👍
Really great video! Thanks for all your work! Brilliant summary for everyone, who's interested in Tesla / $TSLA.👍👍👍