"Line Goes Up!" - The problem with trends
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
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And "line go up" can very well be an illusion when there are strong incentives to lie.
It can also just be inflation.
It was really funny seeing everyone around 2023 saying “AI images have just become so powerful, in 6 months we’ll be unable to distinguish anything anymore!!”
We always like to think that trends will always continue. The prediction of world-dominating AIs seems to always be unrealistically predicted to be right around the corner.
Skynet is always 5 years away.
Enjoyed the video. One of the musicians in the mid 1990's who saw what the internet could turn into for music sales was David Bowie. He financially securitized his back catalog in 1997 of his first 25 albums for $55 million, they became known as Bowie Bonds and were a big story in business media. People wondered why he would do that when he was still youngish and making music, but he totally understood what file sharing would do and he got out a couple of years before the Napsters of the world popped up. I'm not a huge Bowie fan but anyone that combines musicianship with business acumen gets my respect.
It's also probably wise as you get older since you can't collect royalties yourself when you are dead dead.
Even if you have kids, better to leverage that money in the present where you can put it in a diversified trust. No guarantee your catalogue will be valuable in 30 years. A lot of artists have sold a percentage, not the full value, as well (so the estate keeps some creative control).
I would have fundamentally disagreed with this video about 10 years ago but Moore's law is in fact plateauing-nay cratering for technology
Great great video. I am not a first adopter of new things as they are usually overpriced and way too volatile. Crypto is an excellent example. Now that the craziness of that market has cooled I'm taking a second look at NFTs and what application they could have for writing. It's better to aim for consistency than hedge your bets on the next "jackpot" trend.
Knowing what the "next thing" is going to be is much harder than people make it out to be.
"If only I had bought bitcoin in 2010!" I was there in 2010 and people mostly wanted bitcoins to buy drugs online. The people who made a killing probably cashed out at 5k, not 50k.
C S Lewis in The Screwtape Letters referenced the 'Law of Undulation' in relation to moods and interests, from that point of view it is a natural human phenomenon for our tastes/interests to wax and wane which of course is one of the drivers for product 'enhancement' (rarely improvement) and advertising.
I treat computers like cars. I buy/build them with the intention that I'll be using it for the next ten years. My current PC is a laptop I bought in 2015. And this is why I hate the smart phone market.
Prior the my first smart phone I owned two regular cell phones, and that's because I dropped one in a pool. In 2015 I reluctantly got my first smart phone because I needed it for work and my old phone was 2G which was discontinued. It was a cheap pay as you go phone that had a bad network, So I went with a different cell company and got a another cheap pay as you go phone.
I went over seas in 2018 and got my first real smart phone, a Samsung, and that lasted about three years before I found out that it only had 3G tech and 3G was being discontinued. That phone had the right amount of power that I would ever need in a phone ever. And it irritated me that there wasn't a way to just upgrade it to a 4 or 5G phone. So I have a new phone that I've owned since 2020. On that phone I have a racing game that looks like an Xbox 360 game. I don't need anymore power. But recently my current cell company had a system update that made my Android not compatible with their network. And their only answer was to either buy a new phone that's compatible or change to a new network.
My current phone cost as much as my current computer but my computer lasted me ten years and my phone only lasted three.
What is the worst about phones is that all that extra money to put in better camera sensors just amounts to people taking the same boring pictures of their food and filtered selfies. It has made nothing more beautiful.
Man tell me about it. I bought a bunch of Nvidia stock before the earnings report Wednesday. The stock beat earnings, but because the expectations were so high the stock actually dropped after earnings because they didn't beat expectations by as much as it had in the past.
I don't know if Nvidia was printing money before, but there sure was A LOT of demand that cooled off with the depression+bitcoin crash.
Bloatware can force you into hardware upgrades just to make your software perform at the same level.
The BAR was used in WW1
Great video. 100% agreed with everything that you've said. Cheers.
Thank you!
You can use the same principle for macro evolution.
This message goes up!
I'd day you could probably do 95% of your computer-related work on a machine from the late 80's. In fact, till about 10 years ago, there were large retro computing communities who used old DOS & Atari machines for every day tasks, even web surfing. JavaScript & Encrypted websites kinda seem to have stopped that scene.
Apparently, the AIs have absorbed almost everything there is to absorb. Without new data, they can't improve. On the plus side, this means they can be a tool instead of a replacement.
The _Back to the Future_ 2015 reference is a good point. Marty may have thought Jaws still looked fake, but at least he didn't get to see how bad movie screenplays had become by the 2010s. 😂 Weren't laserdiscs viewed as the media of the future in sci-fi films at one time? I think _Akira_ used them in its version of 2019. Maybe it was CDs; it's been awhile since I've seen the movie. I've wondered if their video games could still be played from hard copies without installing them from the internet. That's one of the dirtier tricks the consoles have pulled on us for over a decade now. You can buy the game disc, but are forced to download the game from the network just to play it. That makes the disc useless. Might as well go for the digital copy. Cunning way of disincentivizing purchase of physical media.
Great video as always! I think that the mindset of the "line always goes up" just follows the general Normie mindset of not being able to follow trends.
My husband and I have a family friend that always asks him if she should buy XYZ stock or Bitcoin whenever it's been rallying, and we always use that as the indicator that it's basically peaked in time to sell lol. She sees it doing well for a week or two and then thinks to herself that its time to buy bc "surely it'll keep going up"
So if technology has pretty much plateaued maybe the original Star Trek had it right and all the holodecks and replicators of the newer series are the ridiculous fiction they appear to be 😉
This is very intriguing.
I’m very glad for audiobooks, I’m currently buying the light novel Mushoku Tensei on audiobook. I only read manga, I haven’t time to read novels, so having it on audiobook that I can listen to at work is great.
Audiobooks are great. The point is that it is not an expanding market, most of its expansion was the back catalogue of already popular books, and even if it was going up, being in the market doesn't guarantee sales.
Some examples I thought of:
US voting: after 2012 articles claimed democrats would win big for a while due to changing demographics. Then four years later we got Donald Trump
Self driving cars: they were supposed to be here by now, but seems like something stopped the progress
Work from home: Covid didn’t kill the office, many companies if anything are pushing back on this now
Divorce rates:
People seem to assume they are worse and worse but in reality it’s gotten better the past few decades.
3DTVs; these weren’t a thing for long
Metaverse: hasn’t come yet
Ew, 4k gaming. Keep your 500gb video game away from me.
Your point around the 15:00 mark reminds me of a point Jonathan Blow was making about software limitations actually being felt much more dramatically in the modern hardware architecture. His basic point was that as hardware limitations seemingly vanished and devs had so much overhead, they were able to get sloppy in how they develop. And now we're using (by his notably pedantic standard) trash software everywhere that should be at least 10x more efficient than it is. And I'm certainly inclined to agree, considering the rig I'm currently using is probably 1000x as potent as the rig I used in the late 90's, and the software outside of gaming isn't dramatically different. It's more so the fact that back in the 90s and prior, senior developers had to be actual wizards when it came to software efficiencies to save on computing time and power. Now, you can actively choose the worse option a hundred consecutive times and only then feel its impact due to how much raw power our modern hardware has. Kind of wild to think about.
"western game dev has been here"
"How do you know?"
"490GB"
What you said about graphics is my current gripe with games. Many developers have been pushing realism too much in my opinion to the detriment of the games being developed. I think this is one of the main reasons so many games are released broken - because they prioritize the fancy realistic graphics over optimizing the actual gameplay and engines.
Even then, more details ≠ more beauty. Just look at the character models they use in the west
I didn't notice a big leap between the PS1:& 2. I know now that's because Crash Bandicoot relied on a fixed camera to pull extra detail from the PS1's graphic chip, but, at the time, a slightly more dynamic camera didn't impress me.
I always buy a t shirt, CD and live tickets from my favourite bands' store when they release an album. Gotta support artists you like!
In the 80's Atari was working on a system which was supposed to develop interactive stories on the fly. An LLM could be good for that, if they can get the LLMs to stop forgetting details after a few pages.
Obviously, we need to find the Monolith. It will show us the way forward. ;)
There are some technologies which we got right a long time ago and any "improvements" made for the sake of it make the product worse.
I think about the decision of companies to remove earphone jacks when people were still using earphones.
The only trend in human history that began and never ended is rap music.
E-book and audiobook are (more or less) the same thing? In this recent bombardment on our u-tube feed page of classic works in film and audiobook form, many of which must be in the public domain, I have found enough books which are barely discernible due to the narrator's off paced, mechanical delivery. AI? They must be, and also very inexpensive to do. Hence also why they are being permitted, under the pretense of "we take them down but some repeatedly keep kacking them back up". What a discrace..and ought be illegal.
Yeah Amazon has an AI narrator thing. I really wanted to do it for the demonic AI book but it won't let me do it on that one for some reason.