As a Nigerian, i hope this eventually leads to Russia failing here in Africa. They helped overthrow democracy in the Sahel (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso) and now insecurity has gotten worse. They also control the gold mines there and the juntas are removing civil liberties and this insecurity is now spreading to the rest of west Africa.
@orboakin8074-- We never hear this sort of thing in the media. I think the media is very much controlled now to present a narrative. Thanks for the information.
@faisal0280 no, you are right. But then again, no country has a stellar record but let's just say there's more reasons why most of us in Africa (at least sub-Saharan) still prefer to have relations and diplomacy with the west, America etc than with places like Russia. We can at least trust Americans to be more honest in dealings and guarantee security for shipping and trade.
They had nowhere else to retreat in the Mediterranean Sea, so there was essentially no choice. In addition to all the inconveniences and lack of infrastructure in Libya, there are also Ukrainian special forces who may well have a couple of surprises for the new arrivals.
@@dylanbuchanan6511 Geez dad! I just asked if you want to order chinese food... Don´t want to hear about any "tamtam square massage" today or whatever you call it
To be fair their only options were to: 1. Take the fleet to Lybia where they'll rust in port because it lacks the facilities to maintain them... also Lybian ports have a history of spontaneously combusting, just saying. 2. Risk parking in a NATO country to refuel or worse expose their Shadow Fleet of tankers publicly which will inevitably lead to them being tracked and seized. 3. Park the fleet in the middle of the Mediterranean with nowhere to go and hope the Ukraine war ends before the ships rust and sink to become a new reef. 4. Gamble violating the Montreux agreement by forcing their way into the Black Sea in the hopes that Turkey doesn't respond or worse the rest of NATO doesn't respond. Caught between Rock and a Coral Reef
You literally cant “force your way through the Turkish straits.” The UK was a naval superpower when it tried that in WW1, they lost 200,000 men in the attempt and then gave up.
Stupid question. Don't they have oilers and support vessels that can refuel at sea? Not shadow fleet but actual russian navy flagged vessels? This is supposedly the "near peer" military power.
@@Sho-td8wg Well, they are. That's why they are "near peer" and not "peer". But when it comes to ultraviolence, the Russians are quite capable. They are more of a coastal power, not a power like the USA.
Russia and the high seas Is a tragic story. All this reminds me of 1905 when the baltic fleet had to sail around half the planet to get sunk at tsushima.
@@DanMasterBlaster There's been some good (and funny) YT videos on the whole debacle that was the Russian 2nd Pacific Squadron. Check out Drachinifels one
@@meteorknight999 The "Biggest Land Ever" has a GDP lower than Italy, Canada, and 6 individual US states. Maybe they should have looked for less land with something actually in it, besides permafrost and bears?
@@MetalBeastShred I don't see canada, italy with having solid rocket, metal industry, best nuclear powerplants in world, hypersonic rockets, lowest gas/electric prices ever so you need to update to true info of-- their gdp being better.
Honestly, this option isn’t worse than having their ships seized if they don’t stay put. If they refuel and cram extra fuel (insanely dangerous) in they could make it to Murmansk with the most important assets. This really shows how not having the ability to resupply at sea makes a navy functionally fail at being a true blue water navy though.
As a Libyan, I can say I’m looking forward to that, as a loss for Russia is a loss for the failed general Haftar. We’ve had enough of his autocratic ambitions and the destabilizing presence of foreign powers like Russia and Egypt meddling in our affairs, creating a parallel government (a dictatorship) in the eastern half of the country.
People in Africa should understand that Russia and Chine are way worse than the called colonizers, because they give you nothing, only take from you! And they are doing it now, not 100 years ago! You have to fight in your own countrie for what you want... The decolonazation movements happen almost 100 years backwards... You are free since 1950, 60, 70...and you gave your power and land again to the Russians and Chinese, because of the corruption of some people and the leaders... And you always blame the whites... It's time to blame your corrupted leaders and your poor choices!
Who is we? The Islamists in western Libya who want to create a morality police like the Taliban? The various western militias that have been fighting and killing each other all of 2024. One clash happened just two weeks ago. Or the Ministry of Interior forces who fought the Presidential Council forces last summer? Or one of the GNU generals who kidnapped the intel general Wahayshi in November, causing protests and a halt to oil production? The western part of Libya is at odds with itself as much as with Haftar. The graft and corruption and internal violence out of Tripoli includes an assassination of that uber corrupt coastguard commander who was a big human trafficker. (Dubaiba is PRAISING him! Seriously?!) All those corrupt officials that pocketed the money meant to maintain the damns near Derna that broke and killed thousands were all connected to Dubaiba. Is that the "We" you are talking about? People across the country, not just the east, know Dubaiba is just another Gaddafi era corrupt politician. And yes, Haftar has indeed turned into another Libyan strong man who puts his sons in power. But it seems autocratic rulers and corruption are national traits in common west and east. Unfortunately, there is no "we" in the west. There are multiple competing groups and corrupt figures and families, which is why they haven't been able to defeat Haftar and his sons militarily or politically.
I thought you were being sarcastic. But yeah, it's like 3 frigates, diesel Kilo submarine, and some support vessels. Not worth sinking and going to war over. The Russians just visited Cuba 6 months ago. I don't see why they can't just replenish these ships in the same way.
I'm impressed by that fact that you seem so knowledgeable, yet I'm more entranced by every place you find yourself. Was in Co- Boulder, Nederland, the National Parks. It's good to get around. I'm going back out, been static too long.
He's one of those man-bun guys who reads some Google Search results and becomes an instant expert on everything. People give him money. It's hilarious and tragic at the same time.
I think Benghazi will just be a chance to catch their breath and gather up supplies and fleet oilers for a run up north. I mean that would be the smart thing to do but then again when has the Russian navy ever done the smart thing.
@@ds6914 LOL! True. Dumb luck may be a bad thing for them - If it worked then the Russians will keep doing it, then keep canning the commanders of subsequent missions when dumb luck doesn't intervene to make them successful.
@@meteorknight999wait a minute... I thought Russia was fighting against imperialism. You mean they're just out to grab land here???? Hmmmmmm, that would make so much of the justification for invading Ukraine another lie...
@@meteorknight999 increasing their land??? Dude explain the collapse of the Soviet Union. I am 47 and I've watched Russia collapse twice so far and working on a 3rd.
Russia is a sitting duck in Libya, they will be exposed but I hope they choose to stay and ignore Peter because Putin knows best and each year one or two ships will sink mysteriously 😂!?!
Breaking News ! 2 weeks ago one of the Libyan governments said they are not welcome in Libya and the Libyan civil war may re ignite. Russian fleet may have to exit through the pillars of Hercules and hope for the best ... Seems skuttling in Libya will happen if Ukrainian/CIA special forces gain access
If the Russian ships take their chances and head into the Atlantic soon, they'll be doing it in the middle of winter with a better than average chance of a storm or two en route to Murmansk. Rather them than me!
It is not entirely clear where this information comes from, when just yesterday the leader of the HTS said that they do not want Russia to leave Syria and insist on maintaining bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. That they agreed to leave the bases in exchange for a number of services in the future.
they are just begging for scraps from the interested powers. as USA does not care about them, Turkey backs them just to get rid of the Kurds and just wanted Assad out, Iran is not welcomed, they do no have enough weapons to fight with the other groups, no real national army, tanks, planes, navy sank by the israelis, so they are turning to the russians to check for their views on this also.
For once I'm delighted to hear every one of Mr Zeihan's well-informed words and I couldn't possibly agree more with the glee evident in his closing sentence!👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻 Happy New Year to the Free World.🥳
Hi Peter. I think we actually met a few weeks ago in New Zealand, you were with your wife doing the Tongariro Alpine crossing, we kept walking past each other. I was the guy with the bright orange baseball cap. I really regret not finding the courage to speak to you I would have loved to have had a conversation with you.
It takes a lot of guts and chutzpah to address a total stranger like that out of the blue when passing each other during a hike. It would be easier if standing around looking at something. I can see why you did not do that. You can regret, but don't be ashamed or question your courage.
"The Russian ships don't have much range," okay, that's just sad. Russia is the only modern navy that has lost ships to a country with no navy at all. Even Turkey is listed as having an active aircraft carrier and Russia's is inactive because they won't decommission the big hunk of junk. Now the supposed third most powerful navy in the world (according to the Internet) has no range. Internet, I think you need to reevaluate those military power assessments.
> The Russian ships don't have much range," he did not check before talk. Gorshkov and Grigorovich classes would be at the max range when going from Tartus to Kaliningrad. Technically they won't be going to Kaliningrad port, but to Baltijsk. 20 nmi less. Refueling stop in Benghazi removes 600 nmi. That puts even St.Petersburg/Kronstadt within their range. Kilo class can go both to Baltics and North sea. Oilers probably got the range. Having extra fuel is their thing. Refueling at the sea is a thing. They can also stop in other neutral ports (Morocco) for refueling. NATO and Russia are not at war. Russian warships will be able to pass Gibraltar, British channel, Kattegat and Gulf of Finland unobstructed. They can even go to European ports without being seized. EU will only tell them to leave within three days as per Hague 1907 convention. They could even repeat second Baltic fleet voyage via Djibouti, India and China. Most dangerous Russian fleet in case of world war would be in the North. The only thing that would stop those ships from going back to Russian ports is Vovan's ego/pride.
"Lost ships to a country with no navy" is like saying "they lost aircraft to a country with no aircrafts" its as if SAMs dont exist and anti ship missiles dont exist
Yeah, but what was their other option? Try to strike a deal with Egypt? Morocco? Algeria? I wouldn't say that it's stupid, it's just that the options are actually very limited. Like the alternatives you mentioned would have those ships seized anyways, and possibly have their crews tried for warcrimes that happened in Syria. Like any way this goes down, getting those Russian ships back to Russian waters will be a tall order, and from the Russian point of view, if they can't get those ships back to Russia, having them rust in Benghazi or getting sunk by the French might actually be preferable to all those options you mentioned.
Would they use the Suez? There has been Denial of passage in the past -Ships have been denied passage in wartime, particularly during World War I and World War II and Egypt could also ask any price for RU to move thru.
that russian ship that sunk a couple weeks ago in the mediteranian had 2 large cranes on the deck that they were transporting likely the destination was benghazi in libyia to set up their port facilities for loading and unloading their ships.
Good point. That was how they managed to move their pre-coral-reef ships into the Black Sea when they first invaded Ukraine. I don't know if these ships count as part of the Black Sea Fleet though. If they did, you have to imagine the Russians would at least consider moving them in, to support ongoing operations in the Black Sea. Maybe they did the math and realized moving these ships into the Black Sea would just be giving Ukraine more targets to sink. It's not like the Black Sea Fleet has covered itself with glory these past couple of years.
Can you go to The Whakarewarewa Forest in Rotorua next time, New Zealand, is home to a 6-hectare stand of Californian redwoods, also known as sequoia trees. I like to see how they're growing. Thanks.
Malta has deep water dockyards and ship servicing facilities suitable for navy vessels. It's very close to Benghazi. Soviet ships used to sail into Valletta harbor during the 1970s and 80s. Do you think this is relevant today?
It's a three-day trek across three of the NZ North Island's central plateau volcanoes: Tongariro, Ngauruhoe and Ruapehu. Anyone who's reasonably fit can do it.
But the Brits are entirely law-abiding and would never ever (ever!) engage in dirty tricks against a potential enemy that they've despised since before the end of WW2.
So do the Americans since the last 2 years. Rumours say that they are developing a naval base and an airforce base on the island….. but don’t think that would have any impact on this situation.
The obvious answer is a tanker or are the called fleet oilers? Idk, but a fuel resupply ship. This is so obvious that i must be missing something as to why this is not being considered.
I can confidently say two things: 1) If NATO and Russia "spark", the Russian's Med surface fleet is bottom tier for concern. 2) The Syrian port the Russians had was within striking distance of the Turkish Air Force AND the British Air Force at RAF Akrotiri - Cyprus. Peter is chuckling at nothing.
When he talks about a "fleet" he is talking about 1 submarine, 3 or 4 frigates and 2 fleet oilers, they will probably just drift around the Med for a while
@DoBraveryFPS I think countries like Egypt, Algeria and to a lesser extent Libya can resupply and take the ships in but eventually they will need a more permanent option. Leaving and going back to Russia arctic bases is an absolute last resort as they would want those ships back in the black sea on principle of anything. Interesting to see what they have organised for themselves, nothing is secret nowadays so we will know 😂
Peter Zeihan is the Jim Cramer of geopolitics: blustering, bombastic, and almost always wrong. Like Cramer’s stock picks, Zeihan’s forecasts serve best as a reverse barometer for reality.
Ukrainian special,ops teams are monitoring the the where-do-we-go-now fleet movement for special operation pick-offs. I heard the Ukrainian teams are actually quite good . . .
You said the Russian navy ships whose home port is in the Black Sea cannot return. This seems to contradict the convention: "In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base."
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Never interrupt an enemy when they are making a mistake.
That's what some people are saying about the USA.
@@sOnIcBo0mBoY Ok, IvaN.
@@sOnIcBo0mBoY so what. there is not a single thing 100 percent of homo sapiens agree on. Have you not been paying attention to world events?
Russia isn’t our enemy.
@@AustrianPainter14 Fitting name. Fascists loving fascists.
As a Nigerian, i hope this eventually leads to Russia failing here in Africa. They helped overthrow democracy in the Sahel (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso) and now insecurity has gotten worse. They also control the gold mines there and the juntas are removing civil liberties and this insecurity is now spreading to the rest of west Africa.
@orboakin8074-- We never hear this sort of thing in the media. I think the media is very much controlled now to present a narrative. Thanks for the information.
As an Italian I am very glad that Africans like you make a lot of sense. I totally agree with you. Many more in Africa should listen to you.
Let’s be real here. We Americans don’t have a stellar record.
@faisal0280 no, you are right. But then again, no country has a stellar record but let's just say there's more reasons why most of us in Africa (at least sub-Saharan) still prefer to have relations and diplomacy with the west, America etc than with places like Russia. We can at least trust Americans to be more honest in dealings and guarantee security for shipping and trade.
You are a f00l because I am Nigerian too from kogi state and want the Russians to succeed.
They had nowhere else to retreat in the Mediterranean Sea, so there was essentially no choice. In addition to all the inconveniences and lack of infrastructure in Libya, there are also Ukrainian special forces who may well have a couple of surprises for the new arrivals.
EK ..........I see a good book in the future .......hope you write it !!!!
You spelled your wife’s name wong silly
At least they can help to flatten the ships a bit, respectively transform them to Underground boots
You can bet that Ukrainian special forces and military advisors will also move to Tripoli in Libya if Russian ships are in Benghazi.
@@-oysterthief4444 yup, suppose to be your mom name
Gotta admire Peter’s ability to hike a cliff side trail AND talk geopolitics simultaneously.
He is mainly talking American nationalism.
not bright imo
@@TheWunderbaardid posting that make you feel better?
You're surprised that he could walk and talk?
I bet he could chew gum too, but I’m glad he doesn’t.
His family really not want him near the house when he is talking about geopolitics
🤣🤣
😂
Why? Be more interesting than most conversations?
@@dylanbuchanan6511 Geez dad!
I just asked if you want chinese food...
I don´t want to listen about the tiananmen massacre again🙄
@@dylanbuchanan6511 Geez dad!
I just asked if you want to order chinese food...
Don´t want to hear about any "tamtam square massage" today or whatever you call it
To be fair their only options were to:
1. Take the fleet to Lybia where they'll rust in port because it lacks the facilities to maintain them... also Lybian ports have a history of spontaneously combusting, just saying.
2. Risk parking in a NATO country to refuel or worse expose their Shadow Fleet of tankers publicly which will inevitably lead to them being tracked and seized.
3. Park the fleet in the middle of the Mediterranean with nowhere to go and hope the Ukraine war ends before the ships rust and sink to become a new reef.
4. Gamble violating the Montreux agreement by forcing their way into the Black Sea in the hopes that Turkey doesn't respond or worse the rest of NATO doesn't respond.
Caught between Rock and a Coral Reef
Ireland is not NATO territory. Malta is outside NATO and EU. Marokko are Tunesia both non alligned options
You literally cant “force your way through the Turkish straits.”
The UK was a naval superpower when it tried that in WW1, they lost 200,000 men in the attempt and then gave up.
Stupid question. Don't they have oilers and support vessels that can refuel at sea? Not shadow fleet but actual russian navy flagged vessels?
This is supposedly the "near peer" military power.
I see many a submarine added to the already swelling Underwater Russian Navy .
@@Sho-td8wg Well, they are. That's why they are "near peer" and not "peer". But when it comes to ultraviolence, the Russians are quite capable. They are more of a coastal power, not a power like the USA.
Russia and the high seas Is a tragic story. All this reminds me of 1905 when the baltic fleet had to sail around half the planet to get sunk at tsushima.
Goodness, how old must you be?? /jk
@@dhalikias the correct question is how knowledgeable is he is on history?
@@DanMasterBlaster none he thinks it's 1905 and those wooden boats can go there but not the metal ships
@@DanMasterBlaster There's been some good (and funny) YT videos on the whole debacle that was the Russian 2nd Pacific Squadron. Check out Drachinifels one
@@gahane Seconded. Also Drach's recent video on Admiral Rozhestvensky. He was much better than the usual hot takes make him out to be.
Yep… that’s how Russkies operate…. They weigh the options, and then they choose the worst possible available. Keep up the good work!
Can't wait to see how Chump supports Putins bad decisions on January 20th.
Hey if it's not worked for them for the last 300 years, why change now? /s
@@Targe0 if it gets you biggest land ever then that very great non working solution
@@meteorknight999 The "Biggest Land Ever" has a GDP lower than Italy, Canada, and 6 individual US states.
Maybe they should have looked for less land with something actually in it, besides permafrost and bears?
@@MetalBeastShred I don't see canada, italy with having solid rocket, metal industry, best nuclear powerplants in world, hypersonic rockets, lowest gas/electric prices ever so you need to update to true info of-- their gdp being better.
I didn’t think the port infrastructure in Benghazi was anywhere near able to handle the Russian fleet. Glad to see you argue the same.
I think this is a temporary arrangement. Libya has already told Ruzzia it can’t have a permanent base there.
@@bluemarlin8138Libya is too weak to do anything about it
Cant be worse then Russian port Infrastructure, what with cranes falling, and random fires
Tells you alot about the russian “fleet”
Great minds
Honestly, this option isn’t worse than having their ships seized if they don’t stay put. If they refuel and cram extra fuel (insanely dangerous) in they could make it to Murmansk with the most important assets. This really shows how not having the ability to resupply at sea makes a navy functionally fail at being a true blue water navy though.
The Syrian bases were already well within range of the British air base in Cyprus and American air base in Türkiye.
And Iran's aerial warfare apparatus.
As a Libyan, I can say I’m looking forward to that, as a loss for Russia is a loss for the failed general Haftar. We’ve had enough of his autocratic ambitions and the destabilizing presence of foreign powers like Russia and Egypt meddling in our affairs, creating a parallel government (a dictatorship) in the eastern half of the country.
People in Africa should understand that Russia and Chine are way worse than the called colonizers, because they give you nothing, only take from you! And they are doing it now, not 100 years ago! You have to fight in your own countrie for what you want... The decolonazation movements happen almost 100 years backwards... You are free since 1950, 60, 70...and you gave your power and land again to the Russians and Chinese, because of the corruption of some people and the leaders... And you always blame the whites... It's time to blame your corrupted leaders and your poor choices!
So being a tool for Erdogan is better?
What are Lybians doing about it?
Didn't the US destroy your country a few years ago?
Who is we? The Islamists in western Libya who want to create a morality police like the Taliban? The various western militias that have been fighting and killing each other all of 2024. One clash happened just two weeks ago. Or the Ministry of Interior forces who fought the Presidential Council forces last summer? Or one of the GNU generals who kidnapped the intel general Wahayshi in November, causing protests and a halt to oil production?
The western part of Libya is at odds with itself as much as with Haftar. The graft and corruption and internal violence out of Tripoli includes an assassination of that uber corrupt coastguard commander who was a big human trafficker. (Dubaiba is PRAISING him! Seriously?!)
All those corrupt officials that pocketed the money meant to maintain the damns near Derna that broke and killed thousands were all connected to Dubaiba. Is that the "We" you are talking about?
People across the country, not just the east, know Dubaiba is just another Gaddafi era corrupt politician. And yes, Haftar has indeed turned into another Libyan strong man who puts his sons in power. But it seems autocratic rulers and corruption are national traits in common west and east.
Unfortunately, there is no "we" in the west. There are multiple competing groups and corrupt figures and families, which is why they haven't been able to defeat Haftar and his sons militarily or politically.
"The fleet"? - a couple of 1970's subs, a handful of 1980's frigates and a small force of more modern corvettes and patrol boats.
I thought you were being sarcastic. But yeah, it's like 3 frigates, diesel Kilo submarine, and some support vessels. Not worth sinking and going to war over. The Russians just visited Cuba 6 months ago. I don't see why they can't just replenish these ships in the same way.
Sounds more like a new style Mediterranean Cruise line for tourists.
I believe these are actually their modern frigates - two Gorschovs (2020s) and Grigorovich (2016). But yes, fleet is an exaggeration.
Didn’t Gary Kasparov predict this on fox like a decade ago.
“One thing Putin loves; deep water ports, and Chaos . Benghazi” -Kasparov 😂😂
He’s just a chess player.
He couldn’t possibly understand strategy.
I count 2 things
@@bevbevan6189
He became a politician as well. Lethal combination.
@@bevbevan6189 LOL!
That wide smirk near the end was priceless!
A week ago some port cranes got lost along with a russian ship heading that direction. Weird, hm?
Despite all the hype, I'm pretty sure that they were heading to somewhere near Vladivostok and that it sank because of good old Russian incompetence.
Bad luck that 😢.
1905 all over again.
@@ivancho5854incompetence? Like the finland estonian incompetence in maintaining cables ?
@@peterflohr7827 TORPEDO BOATS!!!! 🤣🎌
Hope you are enjoying our beautiful country.
❤❤
I'm impressed by that fact that you seem so knowledgeable, yet I'm more entranced by every place you find yourself.
Was in Co- Boulder, Nederland, the National Parks. It's good to get around. I'm going back out, been static too long.
He's one of those man-bun guys who reads some Google Search results and becomes an instant expert on everything. People give him money. It's hilarious and tragic at the same time.
Small correction: Russia has maintained a naval base there (in Syria) back to Cold War times, under the Soviet Union.
Loving the joy in Peter' voice!
People don't follow Peter for the joy in his voice. You are probably a bot.
I think Benghazi will just be a chance to catch their breath and gather up supplies and fleet oilers for a run up north. I mean that would be the smart thing to do but then again when has the Russian navy ever done the smart thing.
If it works then it is smart. If it isn't then everyone will talk about how dumb it was.
@@richardthomas5362 if it works it might be smart or it might be dumb luck
@@ds6914 LOL! True. Dumb luck may be a bad thing for them - If it worked then the Russians will keep doing it, then keep canning the commanders of subsequent missions when dumb luck doesn't intervene to make them successful.
No way this doesn’t lead to Russia being handed another L.
Taking L must be dream goal of every country then if historically they can keep increasing their land with all those L
@@meteorknight999wait a minute... I thought Russia was fighting against imperialism. You mean they're just out to grab land here????
Hmmmmmm, that would make so much of the justification for invading Ukraine another lie...
@@meteorknight999 increasing their land??? Dude explain the collapse of the Soviet Union. I am 47 and I've watched Russia collapse twice so far and working on a 3rd.
@@nicocrestmere9688 what's the third?
@@nicocrestmere9688soviet collapse was the first, if putin would fell tomorrow that would be the second, what did you mean by third?
😂"And I really hope they do it!"😂 I had to hear that a second time. Did he really say that?😂
Lol, nice summary at the end :D
budanov please this would be really funny if you went on a north african holiday
Russia is a sitting duck in Libya, they will be exposed but I hope they choose to stay and ignore Peter because Putin knows best and each year one or two ships will sink mysteriously 😂!?!
with a bunch of magura drones ...
Enjoy the Lybian scenery.
I suspect that it they end up in Benghazi they will just sit there and rust until they can't leave.
that way they can avoid news headlines, and pretend it never happened
They arent leaving syria.
@@Withnail1969 The satellite images show that they left port, which is in range of Artillery fire..
@@lonpfrb what images? where can i see those? as i said, the new Syrian regime does not seem hostile to them.
@@Withnail1969the images from the sentinel constellation aren’t super high res, but they’re decent and publicly available.
Not like Russia to do stupid things!!!!
Breaking News ! 2 weeks ago one of the Libyan governments said they are not welcome in Libya and the Libyan civil war may re ignite. Russian fleet may have to exit through the pillars of Hercules and hope for the best ... Seems skuttling in Libya will happen if Ukrainian/CIA special forces gain access
There aren't any assets in Libya and the country is too weak to do anything
If the Russian ships take their chances and head into the Atlantic soon, they'll be doing it in the middle of winter with a better than average chance of a storm or two en route to Murmansk.
Rather them than me!
@FranzBieberkopf Why isnt St. Peterburg an option? I mean, this port isnt frozen (yet) and it has large military facilities.
Peter, it's a hoot when you channel your inner John Bolton like this...😂😂😂
Thank you for sharing Peter Zeihan . 👍🏻
It is not entirely clear where this information comes from, when just yesterday the leader of the HTS said that they do not want Russia to leave Syria and insist on maintaining bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. That they agreed to leave the bases in exchange for a number of services in the future.
they are just begging for scraps from the interested powers. as USA does not care about them, Turkey backs them just to get rid of the Kurds and just wanted Assad out, Iran is not welcomed, they do no have enough weapons to fight with the other groups, no real national army, tanks, planes, navy sank by the israelis, so they are turning to the russians to check for their views on this also.
I love your funny reactions at the end 😄
Please keep up informing us 🙏
Whats to love ? He is ending the video with the most stupid thing I could think of …..
@@livangooday You poor soul
For once I'm delighted to hear every one of Mr Zeihan's well-informed words and I couldn't possibly agree more with the glee evident in his closing sentence!👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Happy New Year to the Free World.🥳
The final commentary 🤣🤣🤣
Exactly look at my comments 😂😂😂 last commentry 😂😂
Loved this one! Nice job and Happy New Year!
Hi Peter. I think we actually met a few weeks ago in New Zealand, you were with your wife doing the Tongariro Alpine crossing, we kept walking past each other. I was the guy with the bright orange baseball cap.
I really regret not finding the courage to speak to you I would have loved to have had a conversation with you.
It takes a lot of guts and chutzpah to address a total stranger like that out of the blue when passing each other during a hike. It would be easier if standing around looking at something. I can see why you did not do that. You can regret, but don't be ashamed or question your courage.
@@richardthomas5362 I strike up convos with people on trails all the time. it's pretty easy to do.
I would just wave and say "Hi Peter, like your videos"
"The Russian ships don't have much range," okay, that's just sad. Russia is the only modern navy that has lost ships to a country with no navy at all. Even Turkey is listed as having an active aircraft carrier and Russia's is inactive because they won't decommission the big hunk of junk. Now the supposed third most powerful navy in the world (according to the Internet) has no range. Internet, I think you need to reevaluate those military power assessments.
@kimwelch4652--- The internet will reevaluate if they are paid under the table to do so. It is difficult to know what to believe these days.
Russia loses ships even without an opponent: Fire, breakdown, friendly fire...
> The Russian ships don't have much range,"
he did not check before talk.
Gorshkov and Grigorovich classes would be at the max range when going from Tartus to Kaliningrad. Technically they won't be going to Kaliningrad port, but to Baltijsk. 20 nmi less. Refueling stop in Benghazi removes 600 nmi. That puts even St.Petersburg/Kronstadt within their range.
Kilo class can go both to Baltics and North sea.
Oilers probably got the range. Having extra fuel is their thing.
Refueling at the sea is a thing. They can also stop in other neutral ports (Morocco) for refueling.
NATO and Russia are not at war. Russian warships will be able to pass Gibraltar, British channel, Kattegat and Gulf of Finland unobstructed. They can even go to European ports without being seized. EU will only tell them to leave within three days as per Hague 1907 convention.
They could even repeat second Baltic fleet voyage via Djibouti, India and China.
Most dangerous Russian fleet in case of world war would be in the North.
The only thing that would stop those ships from going back to Russian ports is Vovan's ego/pride.
"Lost ships to a country with no navy" is like saying "they lost aircraft to a country with no aircrafts" its as if SAMs dont exist and anti ship missiles dont exist
@@u2beuser714 It's still funny and embarrassing for them especially from a Navy's point of view.
Welcome back on shore! Merry wet Christmas and a cloudy new year.
They should go around Asia to Russia and then write a book about it
Considering how well THAT went well the last time?
@@ashaide I men, I don't see how it could possibly get any worse than it did last time so why not.
@@ashaidewhat last time ? You are gonna pull out some history in a thick book aren't you ? that route got used for 50 times since 60s
@@meteorknight999 It is not history, it is comedy. Well, farce. The Ruso-Japanese war.
Look up 1905 Russian Navy Catastrophe
A very funny and enjoyable take :)
Loved your closing statement, Peter!
Yeah, but what was their other option? Try to strike a deal with Egypt? Morocco? Algeria? I wouldn't say that it's stupid, it's just that the options are actually very limited. Like the alternatives you mentioned would have those ships seized anyways, and possibly have their crews tried for warcrimes that happened in Syria. Like any way this goes down, getting those Russian ships back to Russian waters will be a tall order, and from the Russian point of view, if they can't get those ships back to Russia, having them rust in Benghazi or getting sunk by the French might actually be preferable to all those options you mentioned.
Did Peter really say, "Benghazi in Italy"?
Then again, Italy and Libia are separated by a few nautical miles....
I get that lybia used to be Italian a looong time ago tho right?
@@azmodanpc Something more than 400 sm from the southernmost italian island, I estimate.
@@MajikPPMan Yes, until 1947
It was Italy's fourth shore, once upon a time.
First place I go to for week old news ! Thanks Peter
"But it's new to ME!" ~Peter
That’s because this stuff gets posted on his Patreon first and then released here a week later
It's analysis, not news.
I don't think NATO & EU states will may a move against that Russian Fleet, but they can simply denie port access for any ship of the Russian Navy.
Your podcasts get more superb 👌
Happy New Year to you and your partner for the New Year!
What better options do they have?
Love this man and his input.
Would they use the Suez? There has been Denial of passage in the past -Ships have been denied passage in wartime, particularly during World War I and World War II and Egypt could also ask any price for RU to move thru.
Where would they go in that scenario? Dock in a Chinese port maaaaybe? Otherwise I think Vladivostok is further away than going through Europe.
Very good video and happy new 2025 year Peter
Libya is a mess. Two different govts in that "country"
I'm pretty sure that it can now be described as a Failed State.
I was under the impression they were 3, no? Not to mention the mess down south where no one governs.
@khalidalali186 More.
I have a feeling that one of them is going to get much favor from NATO very soon.
Yes, that's how civil wars tend to function.
that russian ship that sunk a couple weeks ago in the mediteranian had 2 large cranes on the deck that they were transporting likely the destination was benghazi in libyia to set up their port facilities for loading and unloading their ships.
2:16 the silent chuckle is priceless.
I didn't hear anything, was lookin at that stream behind you 🥰.
One correction. The Montreux treaty allows the russian ships to go back to their home port in the black sea, but they are not allowed to leave after.
Good point. That was how they managed to move their pre-coral-reef ships into the Black Sea when they first invaded Ukraine. I don't know if these ships count as part of the Black Sea Fleet though.
If they did, you have to imagine the Russians would at least consider moving them in, to support ongoing operations in the Black Sea. Maybe they did the math and realized moving these ships into the Black Sea would just be giving Ukraine more targets to sink. It's not like the Black Sea Fleet has covered itself with glory these past couple of years.
I believe that is during peacetime. During war the turks can close the straits and that's what they did.
Will that take thirteen hours, Peter?😮
Looks like a tough trek....or age... only kidding, your orations are always knowledgeable but easy to understand. Cheers 🍻 from Australia
Thanks Peter
It's been a minute since we saw Peter this elated about someone on the edge of "finding out."
In other words, they left Lebanon, where Syria had a single port, and went to Libya.
Can you go to The Whakarewarewa Forest in Rotorua next time, New Zealand, is home to a 6-hectare stand of Californian redwoods, also known as sequoia trees. I like to see how they're growing. Thanks.
I was there in 1999 and they were very big and tall then, so I think they're growing just fine.
Love Peter is sooo good at Ah, Schadenfreude 😁
Malta has deep water dockyards and ship servicing facilities suitable for navy vessels. It's very close to Benghazi. Soviet ships used to sail into Valletta harbor during the 1970s and 80s. Do you think this is relevant today?
I felt some Paply vibes coming off of that "Do it!" 🤣
Great video
THANKS FOR THE VIEW WHILE ALLOWING US TO TAG ALONG WITH YOUR CLIMB!
It's a three-day trek across three of the NZ North Island's central plateau volcanoes: Tongariro, Ngauruhoe and Ruapehu. Anyone who's reasonably fit can do it.
WHY ARE WE YELLING?
Mind your step, I quite enjoy your posts 😱
Wow m8 great back drop
Brilliant!!!
"That leaves Benghazi in Italy" (1:58) Ahhh, where again?
Loved the enthusiasm.
Brits have bases in Cyprus too.
And, of course, Gibraltar - which the Russians will have to pass if they want to get back a proper friendly port.
But the Brits are entirely law-abiding and would never ever (ever!) engage in dirty tricks against a potential enemy that they've despised since before the end of WW2.
Who knows what the Special Boat Service are up to...
England is a joke, what would be the threat?
So do the Americans since the last 2 years. Rumours say that they are developing a naval base and an airforce base on the island….. but don’t think that would have any impact on this situation.
The obvious answer is a tanker or are the called fleet oilers? Idk, but a fuel resupply ship. This is so obvious that i must be missing something as to why this is not being considered.
There's a couple of problems with his analysis today.
What would be the best option? Everything looks bad?
Lovely view 🎉
I don't think I've ever seen Peter giggle before!
Stop texting while driving. I mean, don't record videos while walking along a cliff.
I can confidently say two things:
1) If NATO and Russia "spark", the Russian's Med surface fleet is bottom tier for concern.
2) The Syrian port the Russians had was within striking distance of the Turkish Air Force AND the British Air Force at RAF Akrotiri - Cyprus.
Peter is chuckling at nothing.
Libya is proven in range of RAF Akrotiri as Gaddafi found out..
When he talks about a "fleet" he is talking about 1 submarine, 3 or 4 frigates and 2 fleet oilers, they will probably just drift around the Med for a while
I don't see any reason why they can't replenish these ships as well. The Russian Navy just visited Cuba this past June, doing the same.
@DoBraveryFPS I think countries like Egypt, Algeria and to a lesser extent Libya can resupply and take the ships in but eventually they will need a more permanent option. Leaving and going back to Russia arctic bases is an absolute last resort as they would want those ships back in the black sea on principle of anything. Interesting to see what they have organised for themselves, nothing is secret nowadays so we will know 😂
Why isnt St. Peterburg an option? I mean, this port isnt frozen (yet) and it has large military facilities.
Bengashi in Italy ?
Forget it; he’s rolling……..
Peter Zeihan is the Jim Cramer of geopolitics: blustering, bombastic, and almost always wrong. Like Cramer’s stock picks, Zeihan’s forecasts serve best as a reverse barometer for reality.
Ukrainian special,ops teams are monitoring the the where-do-we-go-now fleet movement for special operation pick-offs. I heard the Ukrainian teams are actually quite good . . .
Awesome!!
Excellent.
I wonder if anyone speaks Ukrainian in Benghazi?
How's the tongariro crossing going?
Are the bases really relocating?
No
Even worse for the Russians, they lost the ship bringing cranes to Benghazi to an engine room explosion off the Spanish coast.
Love that smile as you said that!😂
There is room enough for the fleet. No drydock. But they can bring in a floating drydock. I bet they made an oil deal.
Urea major was going to Libya. To get to Vladivostok: overland 🚂, wait till spring-> Arctic, or Panama.
Peter
What do you think of Prof Mearsheimers views on the war, RUS/UK.
They can dock in Iran or India... Can't they?
Not in the Mediterranean. That’s where the ships need to be to resupply their contractors/troops in Africa
Sri Lanka will allow anyone to dock.
How will they get there?
Sounds like Future Fish Condos...🐟👍✨
You said the Russian navy ships whose home port is in the Black Sea cannot return. This seems to contradict the convention: "In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base."
Always happy to see that BIG smile. Happy New Year Peter.
Show as the pretty waterfall, don't move away from it.
I ' ve said this two weeks ago, Tobruk, Benghazy ... it was obvious !