The Razzle Dazzle Scam - James Grime from Numberphile
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 2 авг 2024
- Thanks to our friends at Domain.com for sponsoring this video. Make us look good (and take a sweet 15% off domains) by using promocode SCAMSCHOOL at checkout only at Domain.com
* Correction: the "actual count" at 11:41 should be 29, the bet doubling score.
"Razzle Dazzle," also known as "Play Football," "Auto Races," "Double-Up," or "Bolero" is a complete scam disguised as a game of chance. Not only is it illegal in the United States, it's virtually impossible to win. Dr. James Grime from Numberphile and SingingBanana demonstrates this carnival scam as well as a slightly-more-fair version you can play with just dice.
Thanks to Dr. James Grime for joining us! Check him out at:
/ singingbanana
/ numberphile
/ jamesgrime
Want to print the Razzle Dazzle scoreboard from this episode? Download it here: i.imgur.com/MTeyAL5.jpg
Data and information sources for this video:
"Probabilities of Winning a Certain Carnival Game" - Donald A. Berry and Ronald R. Regal (The American Statistician, November 1978)
"Razzle Dazzle and Related Gambling Games" (FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, February 1969) - leb.fbi.gov/file-repository/a...
Got a question or trick? Email it in at ScamNationShow@gmail.com
Join the Discord: / discord
Find us on Twitter: / scamnationshow
And Facebook: / scam-nation-2279995262...
Or Instagram: / scamnationshow
Follow Brian online!
/ shwood
/ shwood
/ scamschoolbrian
This video made by:
Brian Brushwood
Brandt Hughes
Bryce Castillo
John Rael
Annaliese Martin
Includes an edit of "Makie Elkino" by William Ross Chernoff's Nomads freemusicarchive.org/music/Wil...
#CarnivalScams #RazzleDazzle #ScamNation 
Хобби
Think counting is all there is to this illegal scam? Watch the second half to see why even a fair game is nearly impossible!
Did the count fool you?
Poker? Blackjack? Slot machines? Celo? Yatzee? Backgammon?
Closest quarter to wall wins?
A few things I've noticed, some of which has been mentioned. There may be some bad math, either intentional or unintentional (you guys don't even have the "from earlier..." count right, the correct total is 29), but a lot of it is just picking one number or the other. They're clearly on top of the holes, but when doing it fast, it's hard to notice. The second thing is the distribution. You have: 11 ones, 17 twos, 39 threes, 44 fours, 21 fives, 11 sixes; choose 8. The math for that actually sounds pretty complicated, but the slightly easier case of 1 marble at a time gives you an expected total of ~28.4755
@@Tahgtahv Good catch! And yep, the distribution is *very* skewed to 3s and 4.
I didn't fully understand the rule about 29 until close to the end. I thought that it was only doubled for that particular round but if I'm understanding correctly it doubles from that point on. That's an awesome angle to it. Love it.
i picked up on the miscounting right away... all in all though a very interesting scam.
I thought I was going crazy when he kept miscounting.
I was like 'hey, is he adding the number above, or below? Wait, neither, what's going on here...'
I was the same, I noticed it and wondered what the rules are on that
@@MACIEJ454545 fair counting counts above, since the bottom row only has numbers on the top
Me too
I knew it was the scam all along. Brian did miscount as 27 when he was actually supposed to get 29 though haha
For being a mathematician he sure has troubles with single digit additions… HEY, WAIT A MINUTE!
I just wanted to make sure I wasn't the only one who noticed! 😂
Yeah me too, but after a couple of go's i was like "i see what ur doing"
I saw that aswell
Yeah I thought for someone in his area should know what 29 + 4 is...
But you're not going to complain when it is in your advantage that he's miscounting. Perfect scam.
If you were a player, and noticed him miscounting, but you WON, would you even mention it? I bet many people wouldn't. And he only needs to miscount to help you win and hook you in. Once you're hooked, the game will finish you off.
This also plays into the psychology of scamming. If the sucker manufactures the lie, they are less likely to call the huckster on the scam since they were benefiting from the mistakes earlier. Lots of people get hooked on these since, even though they know it's a carnival game/scam, they think they are the ones cheating the huckster. Many con artists play off similar illegitimate desires and actions to steal from folks and know they won't go to the police since it's their own greed/stupidity being implicated as well.
Just like the ball and cup game. You see the ball and the "other patron" picks the wrong cup, you are like this is way easy! You go and he does a switcharoo and you lose. Only high bets on this game.
@@rapmastac1362 That actually happened to me on vacation. Saw a game on the street, watched the "move", said "ah, I got this" and while I looked down to pull out my money, he pulled the move on ME. Lost my £5 and knew immediately (but too late) how it had happened.
you wouldnt win
So many cons start with letting you win small to begin with.
My D&D group is going to hate me after tomorrow night. I'm going to set up in the corner of a tavern and make so much gold.
but surely people who play a game based entirely on dice would see how this works? after all, rolling up a character has you working with a distribution, 18/3 are _super_ rare.
For calculating which digit its going to be just roll a d 11 and a d13 to figure out the coordinates if you dont want to buy new dice, there is an app
YOU JUST GAVE ME THE BEST IDEA. Side note: I'm the DM this time around...
I was thinking D&D players would be the hardest to scam, especially anyone who has cast fireball more than a couple times lol.
@@charlieb8735 See, you set it up in character, make it cost 1 Copper, and tell them they can have /anything/ if they make it to 100 points. Literally anything, including homebrew, and self-made, OP, game shattering, God killing weapons and/or armor that makes them invincible. Entice them with riches and powers every gamer dreams of. Let the Fighter cast spells like a Cleric, and a Sorcerer, in FULL PLATE.
Then sit back and watch them gamble away their money, and laugh on the inside as they rage at the scam, only to reveal it was a scam 2-3 years down the road....
I was adding up with James and I was thinking the math wasn't right
I too thought that a lot of times
he explains why later
@@armindoroudi9025 I figured the incorrect math; especially from a guy whose all about math and thus I would assume being accurate; was part of the scam. Been a long time since I watched numberphile and James
Yup. But the tricky part is those errors are in the player's favor, so even if they notice they may go along with it.
Same, but that's why it's called "Razzle Dazzle"
I caught the miscounts but figured he was looking at the wrong side of the marble... until Brian got into his losing streak. Cheeky, Mr Grimes!
Same. I wondered why he was inconsistent with his "side-picking" but didn't fully catch on
That's exactly how I interpreted it. Because there's no borders around the numbers/holes, it would be very easy for the scammer to choose the numbers either above or below the hole to manipulate the total. The order that the marbles are counted would also be manipulated; if you know that 27 is a dud number, you engineer the count towards 23 and save the 4 for last.
He bamboooozed him
@@Loogaroo1 Nope. You don't need to engineer a dud number. He only lies to give good numbers.
See, here I thought I may have just been going crazy, THEN I thought he was being creative with which side of the marble he was counting on.
Turns out? Nope....complete and utter scam.
Honestly, I noticed a dodgy count the moment Brian won. He won points though, so I guessed I just miscounted.
Damn. I feel scammed.
That's the best part. He only has to cheat to make you win. So even if you notice, you keep your mouth shut.
Dang someone put 70 likes instead of 69. Someone is truly a monster.
I legitimately thought he wasnt counting them i the order he was picking them up.
i also noticed it before the initial reveal.
@@renaminginprogress6903 road to 667
On video, this scam becomes really easy to spot, especially because we have a top-down view and no money into the game. In real life, with your own money involved and a less than ideal view, I reckon it's almost impossible to spot if you're not aware of the probability ahead of time
There's really nothing to spot. That's not the scam. The probability is the scam, even without doing any miscounting. The miscounting is always done to benefit the player to keep them hooked, so nobody that wasn't already aware of the scam would be calling them out on bad counts. The bad counts also wouldn't be anywhere near as frequent in a real world scenario. He was doing them right and left here just to expedite the process and not have you sit through three hundred rounds before any points were scored. But in a real world scenario the miscounts would happen very infrequently and only when the scam artist sensed the mark was about to walk away.
@@Rowgue51 Exactly. The only thing you need to notice is that the game is equal to rolling 8 dices and to get the price you have to throw basically 8 times 1 or 8 times 6. That's about 2/6^8 or 2:1679616. Doesn't seem that good a bet, right?
The part where the scammer promises to add *all the already spent money* to the price is the genious part. That makes it appear that you cannot lose as long as you keep playing until the win.
@@Rowgue51 that deff is the scam that’s where the scam starts . Him letting you think you win a couple times is the reason you’re ever playing still . Deff the start of the scam . I understand you’ll never win but you could figure that out early if he isn’t miscounting
Holy shit this is a legendary collab
I liked before watching :D
I was about to say, numberphile and scam school, holy crap that just sounds perfect
That it is... fit so well together.
My favourite channels together!
Legendary mismatch.
Damn now I can legitimize the joke,” a mathematician and a magician walk into a bar”
A Mathmagician if you will...
@@Actually_Zahren Mathgician, you mean
Does singing banana even age? This is from April 2019 and he looks the same as ever other video from years ago
@@JorgetePanete Personally I think Mathmagician rolls off the tongue a bit better
"It's not much... "
*"It's $400."*
I'll make MORE with this.
I mean, as far as "stacks of dollar bills the size of a brick", 400$ is pretty low
Greatings, fellow proletariat =)
In the UK, the smallest possible note value is £5, so the smallest an equivalent stack size in the UK could be is almost 3000 bucks.
Humblebrag much?
I can say as a viewer, I had the advantage to be able to see you were miscounting, but unless a person is looking for the indicators that they are being scammed, it is very easy to miss. One time when I was a cashier two people tried to scam me through asking for change and distracting me from a distance. Once I knew I had handed the person exact change and he asked to change another big bill to smaller ones while his partner was yelling for me from a distance to distract me, I knew what was going on and right then was my chance to stop it. I slammed my drawer shut and told the scammer the truth. That's your change, I know it's 100% right, and the drawer won't open again without my manager.
He starts throwing a fit. My manager walks over, opens my drawer hands him a $20 and writes me up for my drawer being under balance by $20. Not the worst manager I've had, but I definitely was not happy that I got punished for them being scammed and not believing that I counted exact change.
for the dice version you could always swap in weighted dice every once in a while to replace the miscounting.
Good point! The number distribution on the marble game favors 4s, so dice weighted to 4 would mimic that
@@scamschool Yeah, you'd probably want half weighted to 4s, and half weighted to 3s, since they're on opposite sides.
The board is not only skewed against the player with distribution though. Even a fairly distributed board is skewed against the player. The reason is that any 6 roll "occupies" one of the (already fewer) sixes that is available to the other seven marbles. Whereas any roll of the dice does not affect the other dice. The extremely illustrating example is if there were only seven spaces numbered 6. Then it would be obviously impossible to roll eight 6's.
@@scamschool Their point was weight a die to 6 or 1 so you replicate them winning. I suppose 4s and 3s would make the dice version more like the board version probability wise though.
And even if you notice that he's counting wrong, you're probably not going to say anything about it, because hey, it's an error in your favor!
i dont think you understand the game. higher score doesnt mean more points...
@@404killer No, but when he was miscounting he was often winning you points which you weren't getting by playing fairly
@@404killer And I don't think you understand the point of miscounting.
@Agent J ?
@Agent J your iq must be much higher cause im confused
I've subscribed to you both independently and I did not expect to see him here at all.
Using the range of numbers on the board to figure out it's equivalent to a dice roll, then imagining the distribution curve and figuring out the range of likely point values, it's such an elegant way to see through a game of chance. This is why I love Numberphile, it makes applied maths seem natural; something I quite got the hang of during school.
EXCELLENT collab! Now we just need one with Matt Parker :)
Would that be a Parker Scam?
@@YoungsterJoeyAUS That would depend on how successful it is...
It’ll have to look like it would work, but ultimately fail.
It would be a Parker square scam
@@YoungsterJoeyAUS That kinda clashes with the Modern Rogue style where things look like they're gonna fail but are surprisingly effective!
Marvel: Avengers Infinity War is the most ambitious crossover...
Scam Nation:
Not the first colab... Check out Scam School Pi Day
Hold my beer
I was going to write the very same comment!!!! HAHAHAHA
Hold my FREE beer
Also the SlowMo-Guys and MythicalMorning-Guys crossover 😉
I quite liked this. A lot of math based scams are really obvious, and though this one's not too hard to figure out if you have any idea on how probabilities work with multiple dice, it's not really obvious, and also since it's clearly technically possible to win it seems like a fair game. I did notice James counting weird, but because I was expecting the scam to be more about probabilities, it didn't actually occur to me that he was doing that to skew the game in Brian's favor, which is devious. :D
Exactly that. I really didn't expect him to just lie. Even though I caught the miscount, I thought it was me at fault somehow.
@@hearmerant It seems like a lot of people were thinking that as well, which points to another logical fallacy of trusting authority figures unquestioningly; we assume that since he's a professional mathematician and most of us are not, then any discrepancy is our fault and trust he knows what he's doing. It's this fallacy that's the root of many cults, political parties and most misinformation out there - if someone convinces enough people that they are an authority on a particular subject, then they never have to furnish proof of said expertise which then gives them the freedom to proclaim whatever they want as most of their followers will fall into the same trap of "They know more than me, so if I disagree I must be wrong."
@@Dargonhuman Politician? Heh. Try certified liar in (mostly right wing) "news" programs or a priest. I could understanding leaving politics to someone who is dedicated enough to make it his job, but a lot of idiots trusts people who have nothing to do with field of interest to make decisions for them...
Just walk in with 10^100 dollars and get a free tv!
Well, you actually double your prizes a bunch. So you get a few dozen TVs.
@@TuberTugger After getting a 29 the price doubles. After 10 times you rolled a 29 it costs 1024 dollars for every roll after that.. until you roll another 29...
.So it's more like 10x100x1000x10000 dollars for a few dozen TVs :)
Yeah, but you play till the end, you get your money back! Just like in blackjack when you keep doubling your bet - though you're betting $32k, tyen $64k on a hand but when you break the losing streak, you only net your original $8 bet. Except in this case you gotta spend at least $1M over the course of 17 hours... yeah, that's not happening.
10^100 is simultaneously 1) 85 orders of magnitude more money than there is in the world and 2) at least 50 orders of magnitude NOT ENOUGH money. Per the graphic at 15:39, the expected cost *per roll* after the 5,000th roll is over 3x10^150.
Ive seen them playing this game on the show floor of a comic book convention in Vegas. Cops and gaming commission came in and arrested them.
+
Lel. Hope they paid a shitton of fines
@@redtails they probably took them out back and shot them. The gaming commission doesn't mess around.
Surprising, honestly. Vegas is all about scamming people with unfair odds.
This is such a random collab, these are two people I never would have expected to see in the same room, but it's awesome to be able to! James is my favorite Numberphile presenter!
I won't stand for this matt parker slander 😒
Oh my god ! Haven’t watched Scam School- or Scam Nation I guess - in years! How he’s changed... Good on you my dude!
Is James is commiting Grimes again? He is such a bad guy.
I seriously need to run this to D&D. I would love to see how far my players dump gold into this scam.
lol
8:35 did James actual just snag a paper that was flying away out of mid air? DAYMN
Have a feeling that wasn't the first time
Thanks so much for having James Grime on the show. I am such a HUGE fan of his and seeing him on this is just simply amazing!
Every time I see a recent video with Brian Bushwood I always thank Jesus that he got rid of those spiked tips.
Who'd have thought playing D&D would have prepared me to see through a scam
I'm so glad this showed up in my recommended! I love Dr. Grime, and scams and gambling psychology are fascinating subjects!
I particularly like where you cheat to the benefit of the mark in order to build his "confidence", and keep him playing. It's sort of like being your own shill in the 3 card monte scam.
Even in the three card monte, if the scammer has taken some of your money, he might let you win once or twice to get your hopes up and take everything you've got.
4:15 Did you confuse the top and the bottom when adding up?
Wait, he does it on purpose
But Brian miscounted a few times too lol
I was actually getting infuriated that he kept miscounting. No idea it was part of the scam. Not a very good one if you ask me.
@@crushingit5128 It's a VERY good one considering the only way you can (plausibly) get any winning numbers is by miscounting. If someone calls you out on your bullshit, but continues to play convinced that you're miscounting to prevent them from winning, they're just digging themselves even deeper. Ideally, once you realize it's a scam, you should drop the game altogether. Although I have a feeling that if you already started playing, you're not the type of person that can do that lol
@@johnholmstrom4212 Wait wat lol
@@crushingit5128 It's obvious that he miscounted. But if the miscount means you win, then what reason do you have to challenge it? It makes the player think they are the ones scamming the game-host.
This was an incredible episode. I am fascinated by not only the scam but the math and mindset that you get into when you are playing this game. While Brian was playing I was trying to see what I could catch. I noticed in the beginning the miscalling of numbers and later on the blocking of the colored numbers but the math behind it was astonishing. I am geeking out about this so much right now.
I would love to see more episodes like this. Again this was amazing.
I love James Grime! I've been following both this channel and Numberphile for over a year! Suu-whoop!
I noticed when the good Dr. Grime (what a cool name) was counting it didn't seem to be reflected by what he was picking up from on the board. I was thinking "Where is he getting these numbers from?" Something was definitely off, but I doubted myself enough to assume that maybe I was reading the board wrong.
And then I noticed how the numbers above and below the marble spots are very close and could easily be confused. This was something I was questioning, was I looking at the number below instead of the number above or vice versa? It quickly becomes obvious how deviously designed this scam is and while I kind of caught onto it, I still second-guessed myself when he was adding up numbers that weren't legit. It's a pretty brilliant scam.
Then again, I would never pay money to play a game like this because it's obvious it's a scam from the start. Great video, though! Thanks to Dr. Grime for demonstrating it!
I literally searched up numberphile and went to check notifications and saw this!
Really enjoyed this one. Now I want to make my own razzle dazzle board. I see a laser cut project in my future.
Just drilling holes smaller than the width of the marbles would do. Marbles are what? 15mm wide? A 12mm drill bit should suffice for holes big enough to stop their motion without letting them fall through.
This was great.
This first rounds of miscounts, I was doubting myself thinking that maybe it's the other number that gets counted. Even though I kept looking at the edges and re-verifying it was supposed to be the top number. So I can see how a pro scammer could easily do that in a crowd of people with the real excitement of winning.
Wow, good job Brian, I wasn't expecting this. I've been subscribed to Numberphile for years.
I was counting along at first to make sure he got the numbers right and noticed some of his counts were off. While I was figuring out how that was going to effect the game he gave control over and then I started looking at other angles because you're not going to intentionally miscount yourself, and besides you'd already gotten actual points so... It is quite diabolical.
You're not going to intentionally miscount youself, and yet in this game Brian miscounts the first three times he does the counting....
I first heard of the "Razzle" game through a different channel's video and wanted to learn more. Your video came up from my search. And, since James is on here from the Numberphile channel, I know it's going to be a good video.
This Razzle Dazzle game is so crazy it makes me envision the following variation on a theme: only prime numbers (11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, 41, 43, 47) count for points.
I was so ready for the value distribution-not expecting the miscounting! That is real scam artistry. Thank you, Prof. Grime!
His shirt has a bear smoking weed on it.
Just practice miscounting and fool the scammer xD
The scammer would surely know the odds, though, and catch you at their own game, which they touched on in the video.
might as well play the game a few rounds and say "hey dude this is razzle dazzle, give me the prize or I'll call the cops"
@@redtails Good way to get shot or stabbed. Razzle is still pretty popular in dozens of variations in low income areas(mostly ghettos). We (State SWAT) are called in to do Multi-Block No-Knocks from Popularity and the bonused Illegality in my State. Most Local and County Agencies here; do not have the training, equipment, funding, or weaponry to pull off such high paced UCRs(Urban Clearance Raids). Those of us on the State Team are actually using our years of MOUT(Urban Warfare) and CQC Training to pull such raids off as rapid pace, as we do them - Clear, Search, Find, Next in 5 minutes or less.
The scammer can afford to let you win a round and then count with you the next round though, unless you claim 100 points.
Brian and James - been following you both for years, and auto liked this vid before watching. Cheers to you both, keep rocking hard, and I'll watch the vid now. Thanks for all your work!
~ Steven Jacks
This is so brilliant. It’s one giant misdirection.
Because everyone, even marginally skeptical people, are going to assume the scam is in the marbles or the board. They’ll be staring that thing down like a hawk trying to find why they aren’t winning.
The scam is in the number card, and you aren’t even thinking about the number card.
Actually, the scam is in the prospect of doubling the cost to play (especially if it happens more than once as a running gag): 2^40 is about 1.1 trillion, 2^255 is about 57.9 zillion (not a typo) and 2^335 is about 7 googol (Don't ask!).
The board odds are skewed even further than the dice because the 4 and 3 are far more common on the board than the 1 and 6, making the middle totals much more likely.
Blew my mind seeing this 'crossover'. I love Jame Grime's stuff!
OH MY GOD IT'S JAMES
WHAT THEY KNOW EACH OTHER
MY HAPPINESS IS REVIVED
I made my own scam called “Jacks and Locks”. Make four paper cards with two of them having one side say “Jack” and the other say “King”, and the other two have “Lock” and “Key”. Deal out two randomly whenever you play with random sides up, and if there’s a jack and a king or a lock and a key, you get to move on to the second round. In the second round you deal out all of them, again on random sides, and if they are 2 matches, they win.
Great explanation. I've read about this before but seeing it in action is really something. And thanks for helping me understand the math!
This is the collab we never knew we needed
I noticed James would be counting wrong.
Adding or subtracting 1.
I ran across a Razzle Dazzle scam once, before I had ever heard of it. It was at this really sketchy looking pop up market inside an old closed down grocery store. I stopped in because I was wondering what was going on in this storefront that hadn't had a business in it for 7 years. The place was half full with a booths of sketchy looking people selling questionable items. lots of cheaply made hats with glued on mirror squares spelling words, used TVs, (thinking back they were probably stolen) and counterfeit game consoles running unlicensed roms of Super Mario Brothers and other NES Games. I found the whole thing a bit amusing and was walking around looking at all the odd angles people were working while trying to make a quick buck. While browsing a woman asked me if I wanted a free turn at their game. I was a bit taken aback by how forward she was and decided to see what she was talking about. I was led through an artificial corridor made by curtains hanging on poles and around a corner to a counter with a man standing behind it. behind him were the prizes. Brand new TVs, stereos and gaming consoles. When I got there he asked me to pick a prize. I picked out a TV as I was in the market for one at the time anyway. Instead of a board with marbles he had a dart board laying face up on the counter. It had a piece of paper with a grid of numbers laying on top of said dart board. He hands me a hand full of darts and has me drop them all at once onto the grid of numbered squares below. The object here was to get to 100 pts. That is all he told be before my first drop. He let me know my first two drops were free. I dropped the darts once and he quickly announced I had won 10 points. I dropped them a second time, once again he picked them up quickly exclaiming I had won 25 pts this time. It was only now he showed me the grid and explained how the scoring worked. I'm glad to say that I realized something was off about the whole thing and I walked away without spending any money. I had a feeling this was a scam for several reasons. For one I noticed there was no way he could actually be counting all the values from my darts throw. He picked them up before I could even tell where two of them landed and secondly I was over a quarter of the way to the goal after just two drops and i guessed there is no way he could afford to hand out these prizes at this rate so I surmised there had to be a catch. The final and biggest reason I walked away was because I didn't have time to fully understand the full rules of the game. I should note that this all took place in the USA where this game is illegal. The whole pop up market was raided by the my states Bureau of Investigation (for those of you outside the USA that's like the FBI but on the state level instead of national level) the very next day and the whole operation was shut down. I just wish I had seen this video so I could have called the guy out on it right on the spot.
I’ve followed both of you for many years and it FILLS MY HEART THAT YR FRIENDS!
A really cool part about the miscounting is that you get points so even if you notice why would you point it out
Is nobody going to talk about that ad?
CRINGE
Honestly I was mildly amused by it. The content creators need to make a living and ads are the main way to do it. I'd much prefer a funny ad voiced over by the content creator than a jarring stop and some Nascar ad comes on.
It is a lot harder to sell ads than it looks.
sell ads... SALADS!
Only to say that it ends at 10:50.
The only thing I had to say about it is that the stock footage girl at the beginning is hot. Then I skipped it.
Two of my favorite channels and I’d never thought I’d see a collab
You found a very clever way to make advertising funny. Thank you for the laugh, not even mad to see the add mid video the way you did. Kudos to you my friend.
Makes sense, the mean of the numbers 1-6 is 3.5 * 8 marbles = 28 is the avg. expected score. The ones that score no prizes or points are +-6 from the avg. a, which I would expect is a couple of std. deviations. 29 is so likely because it's only one away from average.
It get's worse. The balls are not independent events. If one ball lands in a 6 that spot is blocked. So the odds for another 6 is reduced
The marbles are even more weighted towards the middle than the dice. Each of the dice is an independent roll, and 1-6 is equally likely. But with the marbles, if the first marble lands in a "1", then you have one fewer "1" hole to hope for. So the odds of getting eight "1"s on the marbles would be much worse than the 6^8 for the dice.
@@jasonbellmusic3091 It's much more worse than that. If you look at the board, the numbers are not evenly distributed and are heavily skewed towards 3 and 4. 83 of the possible 143 positions (58%) are either 3 or 4.
Hey Bushy, Have you ever done a video to show how "quick change artists" operate? I was managing a Taco Bell one night when a guy came in and started working on me. Thankfully I realized what was happening early on and grabbed the money I had out and made him start over, and wouldn't let him run his scam at lightning speed like he was trying to do. I'm a math guy but I was amazed at how quickly he was trying to change the game on me. A real eye opener. Starts out sounding simple but escalates FAST!
The first 4 RUclips channels I ever subbed to (many moons ago) were scamschool, Numberphile, singing banana, (and cgp grey). This is 👍🏽 awesomeness!
Two of my favorite youtubers together! Excellent video guys, enjoyed it thoroughly.
I noticed his counting wasn’t right! Great collab, this video was great!
We all know where James is going with all those $1 bills.
If you start to see them wanting to cash out, you can miscount them another win to hook them back in. Diabolical!
This is RUclips at its absolute best. Fun, educational, better than T.V. Even the ad isn't intrusive. Bravo.
Thanks, man!
Would you like some Grime with your Scam? Why yes. Yes I would.
+
You should definitely collab with Alec Steele (awesome British blacksmith living in Montana). I mean the kid's literally barely in his twenties and making hecking awesome swords for a living.
I didn't know I needed this until you pointed it out, though a Steele collab would be better for Modern Rogue.
Razzle dazzle was a frequently played scam game thrown at gullible tourists passing through Ludowici, Georgia on US 301 back in the 1950s and 1960s. Ludowici was also known for having a traffic light that was operated by a button in a barbershop to change from green to red without yellow. It was a money maker for the town.
I saw James Grime and Scam Nation and I thought I would just get another video on grime dice but I get this masterpiece.
I've been razzle dazzled before. He used ping pong balls with numbers though and a fish net to scoop them out. got us for over $100.
Let me guess, you were in the Caribbean...
@webnothing lol
I saw a reveal on that one that showed that there are numbers on opposite ends of the ball so the guy can show you winners when it looks like you wanna bail.
@@brucekidd1352 Close. I was an hour outside of Houston Tx at a Crawfish Festival
They got me for $180 yesterday
Two legendary youtubers collab :)
The brilliance of misscounting, is that no one will fight you because you misscount and made them win points, so only when you've made them win a ton, you could go and miscount one, but because you has counted on their favor, they wont doubt you later
Besides that, the miscounting is being exaggerated here for a point: it doesn't need to be this obvious to work.
This is the collab that I never knew I needed
Dice version: Scoring 100 points would take 342 rounds, and cost $2.62 billion on average
Marble version (updated): Scoring 100 points would take 4978 rounds, and cost $2.19 x 10^164 on average
Marble version (with non-blocking marbles): Scoring 100 points would take 3431 rounds, and cost $1.73 x 10^111 on average
(I wrote some code to calculate this, using the game board shown in the video, assuming each hole has equal probability.)
More stats:
Dice version: Expected score per round is 0.292, probability of scoring is 0.0274
Marble version: Expected score per round is 0.0201, probability of scoring is 0.00294
Marble version (with non-blocking marbles): Expected score per round is 0.0292, probability of scoring is 0.00401
One of the comments above pointed out that the board skews the results in more ways than one: e.g. after a marble stops at 5, the other marbles would have a one less 5 to stand on, thus making the probability of the second marble stopping on a five slightly less than 1/6, and so on. Maybe that's where the difference stems from? In case you accounted for that, feel free to disregard this, but I hope it helps!
@@nawarelsabaa No, I didn't take that into account. Thanks for pointing it out! I'll have to update my code.
@@NightGlyde Glad I could help! Also, please post a reply when your new results show up. I'm Interested in seeing how this changes the probability.
@@nawarelsabaa I've updated my original post with new stats
@@NightGlyde that's a very significant difference after such a seemingly small change!
Thanks for the update, and lots of fun in your future codings!
Ah so this is how EA figured out their strategies.
No, EA got its strategies from its full-time staff of psychologists which has more psychologists than all the casinos in Las Vegas combined.
Open this chest and win 1-100 parts of a character. Hmm... sounds familiar.
It might be possible that all in app purchase games are secretly razzle dazzling us.
Pretty much every single game containing some form of loot boxes or even simply tedious enemy farming with a 0,0001% chance of a "legendary" component. For the latter you might not necessarily spend money, but a lot of you lifetime instead, which in some way is even worse than just lose money.
Laughing Joking Numbnuts and Evil Anarchy team up to present... Razzle Dazzle The Video Game! The electronic Razzle-Dazzle board keeps changing so you'll never win!
Two of my favorite RUclips personalities together in one spot?! What is this magnificence??!!??
I had no idea I would ever witness this collaboration. Who knew the two of you knew each other?? How good
I thought his idea was to choose what number to add up: above the hole or below
Yeah I did too, particularly when Brian also miscounted on his first three goes!
Why are people so fucking stupid?
That’s another way they can bamboozle the player/target
Yeah. One time he uses the number below the hole, and the other time he adds the number above the hole.
Hence why it seems James Grime cant count.
I never thought I'd see both of these guys together, how awesome! I watch you both :D
Thought I saw him mis count in the first one. but then I was like nah he's a maths guy I probably saw it wrong
^^yes! This is what makes the scam so brilliant. It causes self-doubt.
I knew something was off, I just kept second guessing myself (maybe I was supposed to pick the number on the other side?)
A better way to disguise the miscounting, I think, would have been to very quickly glance at the board, say a bunch of numbers like "4, 3, 4, 1, 6, 6, 2, 5, 5" and then declare "36" regardless of whether those were the actual numbers the marbles landed on, and then quickly tilt the board so it would be difficult to verify.
This is honestly one of the weirdest and best crossovers i’ve Ever seen on RUclips
For those curious why the marble version is more insidious than the dice...
With the dice, each die is equally capable of rolling each number. Since the highest-possible and lowest-possible results are the 'preferred' to actually win, you can easily get lucky and get all 6s or all 1s.
Look at the board. Each row has only one 6 and one 1. And column-wise, there are no 6s or 1s on the edges at all, they're all in just two columns toward the middle (but separated by three more columns, with columns of just 3/4 flanking directly.) When a marble lands in a 6, that six is no longer available. The pool of possible 6s is smaller. But each row has *FOUR* 4s, and the outer columns are entirely middle-numbers (the left two are just 3 and 4, the second-from-right likewise.) And the 1 and 6 alternate, so even if you figure out a way to throw the marbles well to get a bunch of them landing in the two columns of 1/6, they'll be likely to *SPLIT* high and low values, again averaging to a middle.
The board is skewed _significantly_ toward getting "middle" numbers.
Now that's an insightful observation! I completely missed that.
"Is that real money?" "Yeah, but it's not much."
"This is $400."
Some of us have different definitions of 'not much'.
WPR.
I think he meant not as much as it looks like lol it's not much for the amount of bills there
@@archerelms Yeah, but then it's not as funny. :D
400 isn't even a months rent in a shitty appartment.
I'm impressed of how many know of both Brian and James. Awesome colab, guys!
Dude! I love numberphile! Now I just need you to guest on the weekly pull. And my dream podcaster mashups list will be complete
Give em' the ol' razzle-dazzle
I'm sitting here thinking "Ok he has 31, he picks up a 3, now it's 34, but guy said 36 what?" see kids, being able to count is important.
That is the entire point of the scam
Fascinating, I was already wondering what is he counting?! Did I miss something?! And when Brian won, I immediately was like: “okay I must’ve not been paying attention close enough”. 😂
The number of people who commented on this video STILL NOT UNDERSTANDING THE TRICK, is a testament to how good a scam this is.
I watched you count and was so confused why you were adding incorrectly
I got it on the second round.
I've seen a different version of this concept a few years back. Instead of a board it involved a big bowl with air blowing pingpong balls around and you had to scoop a ball with a fixed oversized spoon. (Fixed meaning it could only move as much as it was built to move) and I think I remember it being $20 a try and an additional $20 each try. The goal was 100 points but if you went over you busted.
The premise of carnival games are so simplistic it borders genius, but it's never what it seems Haha.
I will never get tired of these guys together.
The sad part is not only did a bunch of people get suckered out of their money by this game, but that somebody sat down and came up with this.
Couldn't you also bamboozle them by miscounting yourself?