David according to Peter Schiff we've been in a recession since last year and he said we might even be in a depression where the overall standard of living is lower for most people. I'm not sure how you technically define a depression but we have about 25% unemployment now from what I've heard from Shadowstats. That is about the same as during the Great Depression 1930's.
Just thought you would like to know that scammers are impersonating you out here. I reported the one that hit me up. You may just wanna tell your audience to watch out, because some people always fail for it. Great show and good luck to you with everything.
Negative enterprise value companies with most of the market share in their industry, small debt, and making cash flow. Essentially, buy a dollar for less than a dollar, except they also have a competitive edge.
I watch your videos from my bamboo hut in Thailand - welcome to RUclips with your new show as your own boss - as a fellow RUclipsr, working for our self is best! I don’t watch Kitco anymore 😁
Honestly, the home builders did the same thing in 08. Then they crashed out and there were half built homes just sitting and basically rotting in neighborhoods for over a decade.
This ties in with Mandelbrot's book The (MIS) Behaviour of Markets in which he discusses the fractal analysis of market behaviour. It is a book I strongly recommend every trader and investor should read!
Hey says "The bottom line is, look at the complexity of any investment or the price evolution, when that complexity disappears it's like a really big red flag." Hunh? This guy has a really interesting way of thinking about markets and dislocations. His explanation of the health of the market ecosystem made more sense to me than others I've heard. I always want to hear what thoughtful financial people think of income inequality. Lots of people talk about long tail problems like social security or demographics but I don't hear much on how it impacts markets (surely it adds to risk) and what happens going forward if it gets unwound, increases or just stays the same. Great podcast (is that the word) and I like that listeners can find the guests they care about and then dive deeper. Thank you and take it from the man.
I love that he debunks efficient market hypothesis. It’s the same vintage of thinking as the Laffer curve: A rule of thumb, which was obvious, rebranded to gaslight the plebs or justify 0 taxes on the rich. You win a Nobel by supporting the Oligarchy.
Housing transaction volume is in recession in my area, but only because of the lack of supply, not because of high prices, higher interest rates, tighter credit or weak demand. After a slow autumn and winter, demand still seems to vastly outstrip supply, with no apparent decline in investment demand.
He is bringing on respected researchers that are all arriving at the same conclusion. It might be hard to find someone willing to stake their name to the counter argument right now. Maybe a big city Realtor or something? They seem to be glass half full types.
I didn't hear a solid explanation why interest the rates would be going down - his answer was - well, that's what's been happening until now. But this has only been happening during the last 30 years with the central banks' loose monetary policy. And during that period the US/EU banks could afford it with the fall of the Communist block - they had no competition or threat. Now both US/EU regions have sticky inflation, Fed has promise dto keep tight conditions to the end of the year, the ECB even 1-2 more rate hikes and have yet to start any serious tightening. And I believe them, because for the first time in decades, western central banks have multiple serious threats - inflation, the Global South de-dollarising, the Middle East getting closer with China and Russia, all western pension funds, investors, central bank balance sheets full with overvalued assets and unrealised losses - the FED & ECB simply can not afford another such loose policy period!!
I understand that if central banks lower rates all these poisonous assets will get re-valued up, but this will stimulate another such period of poisonous assets accumulation and will grow the tumour to really unsustainable levels. I don't think they can afford it, they would opt to crash the economy and many overvalued assets, after the insiders have dumped them.
You are doing great David, But missing a "NSS" effect. Which I think is the single big reason behind markets for this odd behavior. Please find someone who can decode this effect in more detail. Thanks in advance.
Allianz chief economic adviser and noted economist Mohamed El-Erian reportedly said though there have been tremors that impacted the banking system, a banking crisis is definitely out of the picture.
Opposite is happening in Australia, major home builders are falling over & going into administration & the banks hve only had an initial minor sell off.
earth …. Data will catch up with reality. it’s happening in California already. Multi million dollars homes first. Now working it’s way down… these are supposed to be those with the largest pocketbooks and best balance sheets.
@@criticalcrossroads498 In a slow moving asset such as residential RE, a double digit fall greater than 10 percent. I would call that the beginning of a deep recession … heavily dependent on those artificial low interest rates since 2008. I would bet his data would show the same. It isn’t necessary to really wait till the bus hits me. I know it’s a bus. It’s like 2008 except this one is on the FED
@@bbustin1747 yet the guy in the video thinks we will have a mild recession you did watch the video right? what do you think about his rosey outlook. housing in california is down 15-22% across the board your saving $100,000-300,000 right now 1 year later after it started to decline that didnt happen out side 2008 since 1930 so this is big. i been waiting this out for several years hopefully by october ish 2024 ill buy a home sitting in a cheap mobile home for now
Except for America, which is propped up by the world's reserve currency, the USD, the rest of the planet has been in recession since last year. America is paying for its imports with debased money. The world should realize their standard of living is deteriorating while America's SOL remains high. Their exports are being paid by America using money coming out of a non-stop printer.
The reason home builders doing so well is because the 52 and older generation has a crapload of money that we've made in the last 20 years or so without even trying they using cash to buy houses no loan
David your mike should be lower so we can see your tie, shirt and suit. Your hair should be conservative like it was with Kitco. You are trying ti get traction without Kitco budget and you need to do everything to look profesional. You are a future leading interviewer in this field. 100%.
this was pathetic hes downplaying a downturn that we postponed 3 years after a pandemic not seen in 101 years.... the one 100 years ago resulted in the great depression but this wont even cause a historic "Recession"? im done
Houses are selling very quickly in my area. Not sure about his accuracy. Job market is huge. House prices have dropped 10%….the only things hurting right now are inflation and interest rates.
Well, the way most everybody sees it ATM it's all pointing one way - the only variables are in the details .. anyway, David had Harry Dent on last week - what more could anyone want?!!!!!
Dhaval strangely enough ignores the actual problem...and that's why his conclusions are wrong. What is it? Well, bloody debt of course. Won't go away...getting worse instead. What will happen? More inflation and rising bond yields...that's if we're lucky...otherwise a major war.
What are your top recession-proof investment ideas? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
the moment you guys stop calling for a recession will be the time we dive into one
diversification
David according to Peter Schiff we've been in a recession since last year and he said we might even be in a depression where the overall standard of living is lower for most people. I'm not sure how you technically define a depression but we have about 25% unemployment now from what I've heard from Shadowstats. That is about the same as during the Great Depression 1930's.
Just thought you would like to know that scammers are impersonating you out here. I reported the one that hit me up. You may just wanna tell your audience to watch out, because some people always fail for it. Great show and good luck to you with everything.
Negative enterprise value companies with most of the market share in their industry, small debt, and making cash flow. Essentially, buy a dollar for less than a dollar, except they also have a competitive edge.
Your interview skills and guests are fantastic! Love the way you keep the conversation on point.
I watch your videos from my bamboo hut in Thailand - welcome to RUclips with your new show as your own boss - as a fellow RUclipsr, working for our self is best! I don’t watch Kitco anymore 😁
Love David’s requests to explain things for us simple folk! ❤. Keeping it real.
Thank you for a great show!!
Honestly, the home builders did the same thing in 08. Then they crashed out and there were half built homes just sitting and basically rotting in neighborhoods for over a decade.
Imminent yes … but imminent when ? Joke .. I always enjoy this show. One of my fav .. the work put together by David here is impressive !
Nice look with the spectacles. Thanks Dave!
This ties in with Mandelbrot's book The (MIS) Behaviour of Markets in which he discusses the fractal analysis of market behaviour. It is a book I strongly recommend every trader and investor should read!
Hey says "The bottom line is, look at the complexity of any investment or the price evolution, when that complexity disappears it's like a really big red flag." Hunh? This guy has a really interesting way of thinking about markets and dislocations. His explanation of the health of the market ecosystem made more sense to me than others I've heard. I always want to hear what thoughtful financial people think of income inequality. Lots of people talk about long tail problems like social security or demographics but I don't hear much on how it impacts markets (surely it adds to risk) and what happens going forward if it gets unwound, increases or just stays the same. Great podcast (is that the word) and I like that listeners can find the guests they care about and then dive deeper. Thank you and take it from the man.
Thanks guy! Great discussion and useful info.
Wow, can't believe I agree with everything this man says.
A great guest, thanks for sharing. 👍
A 30 % drop in banks does not make them a buy. They dropped 30% for a reason. These reasons still exists. Expect them to drop further.
Great content again David! Thanks.
Thank you gentleman 🤓🙌
I love that he debunks efficient market hypothesis. It’s the same vintage of thinking as the Laffer curve: A rule of thumb, which was obvious, rebranded to gaslight the plebs or justify 0 taxes on the rich. You win a Nobel by supporting the Oligarchy.
That was a particularly insightful interview, thanks! Especially the unemployment discussion.
Not sure about banks with commercial real estate looking like it could trigger a massive wave of defaults!
Banks will fail
Elaborate? Please share
Don't sugar coat it
@@Floridawoodsbanshee some banks already failed
Housing transaction volume is in recession in my area, but only because of the lack of supply, not because of high prices, higher interest rates, tighter credit or weak demand. After a slow autumn and winter, demand still seems to vastly outstrip supply, with no apparent decline in investment demand.
How are you differentiating the cause? How do you know all of those aren't factors? And how do you know investment demand hasn't fallen?
But will the banks even value the homes at what they are for sale for? Def not the case in Ontario
Short the home builders, it’s a no brainer
how do you think home loans will look like post fednow?
David I would appreciate some guests providing the counter arguments. Almost everyone you have on is screaming the sky is falling.
He's simply bringing on bright people. Maybe take note. None of these guys are biased by their position in a large fund
He is bringing on respected researchers that are all arriving at the same conclusion. It might be hard to find someone willing to stake their name to the counter argument right now. Maybe a big city Realtor or something? They seem to be glass half full types.
@@Bigern2998 I think it'd be safe to simply say Realtors 🤣
Great interview David...thank you.
No no
I didn't hear a solid explanation why interest the rates would be going down - his answer was - well, that's what's been happening until now. But this has only been happening during the last 30 years with the central banks' loose monetary policy. And during that period the US/EU banks could afford it with the fall of the Communist block - they had no competition or threat. Now both US/EU regions have sticky inflation, Fed has promise dto keep tight conditions to the end of the year, the ECB even 1-2 more rate hikes and have yet to start any serious tightening. And I believe them, because for the first time in decades, western central banks have multiple serious threats - inflation, the Global South de-dollarising, the Middle East getting closer with China and Russia, all western pension funds, investors, central bank balance sheets full with overvalued assets and unrealised losses - the FED & ECB simply can not afford another such loose policy period!!
I understand that if central banks lower rates all these poisonous assets will get re-valued up, but this will stimulate another such period of poisonous assets accumulation and will grow the tumour to really unsustainable levels. I don't think they can afford it, they would opt to crash the economy and many overvalued assets, after the insiders have dumped them.
You are doing great David, But missing a "NSS" effect. Which I think is the single big reason behind markets for this odd behavior. Please find someone who can decode this effect in more detail. Thanks in advance.
Very interesting point about market efficiency.
Thanks David. Any chance you will push your content into Apple Podcast?
the glasses make you look smarter, Dave
Allianz chief economic adviser and noted economist Mohamed El-Erian reportedly said though there have been tremors that impacted the banking system, a banking crisis is definitely out of the picture.
Opposite is happening in Australia, major home builders are falling over & going into administration & the banks hve only had an initial minor sell off.
Very convincing.
Gloire à QE Infinity
Not even close to 2008.
It's exponentially worse in every way.
At 5 minutes he said housing is in deep recession. On what planet?
Planet youtube...where everything is always on the brink of catastrophe.
earth …. Data will catch up with reality. it’s happening in California already. Multi million dollars homes first. Now working it’s way down… these are supposed to be those with the largest pocketbooks and best balance sheets.
@@bbustin1747 So housing is not in a deep recession.
@@criticalcrossroads498
In a slow moving asset such as residential RE, a double digit fall greater than 10 percent. I would call that the beginning of a deep recession … heavily dependent on those artificial low interest rates since 2008. I would bet his data would show the same. It isn’t necessary to really wait till the bus hits me. I know it’s a bus. It’s like 2008 except this one is on the FED
@@bbustin1747 yet the guy in the video thinks we will have a mild recession you did watch the video right? what do you think about his rosey outlook. housing in california is down 15-22% across the board your saving $100,000-300,000 right now 1 year later after it started to decline that didnt happen out side 2008 since 1930 so this is big. i been waiting this out for several years hopefully by october ish 2024 ill buy a home sitting in a cheap mobile home for now
Except for America, which is propped up by the world's reserve currency, the USD, the rest of the planet has been in recession since last year. America is paying for its imports with debased money. The world should realize their standard of living is deteriorating while America's SOL remains high. Their exports are being paid by America using money coming out of a non-stop printer.
25 weeks over 200 SMA bears trapped below capitulating and will turn bullish. Please cover $AI 😊.
The reason home builders doing so well is because the 52 and older generation has a crapload of money that we've made in the last 20 years or so without even trying they using cash to buy houses no loan
52 captures some Gen X'ers, overall it's my understanding Gen X'ers are freaking broke or in high debt
David your mike should be lower so we can see your tie, shirt and suit. Your hair should be conservative like it was with Kitco. You are trying ti get traction without Kitco budget and you need to do everything to look profesional. You are a future leading interviewer in this field. 100%.
He can't afford a hairstylist yet. What you are seeing is his best attempts. LOL
How will a recession in USA affect the Canadian economy? Our banks are fine. Will Canada suffer the same?
Canada has so much land, trees, free water, and food. Don't think you Canadians need to worry much.
Ads are insulting and permeate the service. Goodbye.
this was pathetic hes downplaying a downturn that we postponed 3 years after a pandemic not seen in 101 years.... the one 100 years ago resulted in the great depression but this wont even cause a historic "Recession"? im done
Houses are selling very quickly in my area. Not sure about his accuracy. Job market is huge. House prices have dropped 10%….the only things hurting right now are inflation and interest rates.
Nice glasses David
What? Unemplyment is 20%.
Sub 3500? Lol . Not much of a recession. Biggest Bubble in history of the world and we get a 25% correction. I think thats a highly dovish prediction.
Cool glasses Lin.
Glasses
Does David Lin ever have an expert on that expresses a counter opinion? Seems like all his guests share the same opinion
That should tell you something!
Well, the way most everybody sees it ATM it's all pointing one way - the only variables are in the details .. anyway, David had Harry Dent on last week - what more could anyone want?!!!!!
You mean always being bear? I've noticed that 6 months ago, aren't always negative
Basically you asking him to invite Cathy Wood? "Everything is going to the moon" LOL 🤣
I think for a convincing argument having reputable guests with differing opinions is educational
everyone still predicting recession
Except Peter Schiff is predicting depression.
#3 on number
Dhaval strangely enough ignores the actual problem...and that's why his conclusions are wrong. What is it? Well, bloody debt of course. Won't go away...getting worse instead. What will happen? More inflation and rising bond yields...that's if we're lucky...otherwise a major war.
Is this guy seriously talking about buying bank stocks? No one should have ever bought banks stocks ever anyways. No value at all
Don’t say my shaw say David shaw
✌️
Learn how to cook "hard time meals" because that may be all you have when the crap hits the fan. Many folks are going to have to get creative.
👍🏻
Swish glasses David.
2nd!
What's with the glasses David
They raise ones IQ buy 5 points. Well known fact in academia.
They help with his eyesight.
Like
Nice to not have to put up with skitco👍💯
Weird voice guest has
wtf, since when did you become cyclops and need fake glasses to hide your identity?
Terrible speaker.