What if fedor is protecting his A high’s by choosing this line and sizing knowing some draws will be priced in and some will call to try and steal it on the river anyway ? What if he did this with the intention of calling if any card 2-8 hit the river?
I’ve got to disagree with the analysis here. BvB + being the bigger stack with ICM gives Fedor a very wide range, and A high is heavily discounted by the turn bet, J high doesn’t need to bluff as it has showdown so T9 becomes a credible bluff catcher here, and a print if opponent is over bluffing (very easily done with so much air and likely true for Fedor)
That's what I said! Only... in two sentences rather than in four or five paragraphs. :) But yeah I completely agree with you. Stack sizes and position determine so much about each player's perceived range here. Fedor could have so many bluffs (having started with a straightforward blind steal) and very little value indeed.
Sb v bb, opening a wide range… does holz have more unpaired air below J-hi or Ax in his range as played to the river… the answer is the former. Great call and surprised the analysts are having such trouble understanding it. It is a credible story for Ax… okay… that doesn’t mean we auto-fold lol you compare combos of Ax vs unpaired air below Jx that Holz opens sb vs bb 3 handed deep in a tourney with ICM considerations and plays this line with…
What kind of range and frequencies would make this break even? Or is it more about what bluffs Holtz chooses. I think he can try to showdown JT9 highs. And shouldn't be accidentally beaten
Sorry guys, another long one. TL:DR version at the bottom. I strongly disagree that Fedor plays an ace like this. And I kinda hate his turn sizing. It seems like a small mistake but it's actually a much larger one than it appears. Here's why: I don't think Fedor assumes that a queen plays the hand the way Kudinov has on the flop. When a usually aggressive player like Fedor checks the flop, I think a queen on that stack size is going to bet to either try and induce Fedor to make a mistake, or take down the pot there and then. Not certain, but likely. There's not much that's beating us after that pre-flop action. Fedor has an extremely wide range when he's only up against one player with twenty-two big blinds. He could absolutely be trying to pick up the big blind for a low price with that preflop bet. Now what does Kudinov think of Fedor's turn bet? He thinks that Fedor probably won't give him credit for the queen, since he hasn't bet the flop. It's all about the stack size. By betting so small, Fedor is limiting his options to induce Kudinov to go all-in on the river - Kudinov just has too many chips compared to the pot. If Fedor actually had something like a pair of eights (which makes sense given the play so far, assuming you're ok with his not betting the flop - which seems like a high-risk, low-reward move given that he's out of position, Kudinov might still have the king or queen, and Kudinov doesn't have a big chip stack to win), he's probably going to bet a bit bigger to either take down the pot (which again makes sense, there's a lot of scary river cards if you're a low or middle pair) or put Kudinov in a position where he has to risk a lot more on the river. So, given all of the above, Fedor's low bet-sizing on the turn looks exactly as weak as it is. I think he bets at least $260k with any value at all. And "value" in this case most definitely includes an ace - again, he doesn't think he's up against a queen, and the likelihood of a king has gone down substantially now there are two of them on-board. So what's he afraid of? A low pair? Isn't this exactly the kind of hand that Fedor wants to fold out, or at least make Kudinov have to consider folding on the river due to his short stack? If Kudinov is thinking like I'm thinking, the river decision is not a difficult one. Fedor has given him an opening with some mistaken bet-sizing. Kudinov is not scared of an ace, king or queen, and a ten would be a chop. So what's the risk here? If Fedor was trying to take down the flop with any two cards, his range is wide open. You might even assume (although this isn't a big consideration) that Fedor would consider a jack-high hand to be possible value on an AKKQ board. Yet Fedor's actions have indicated he's trying to take down the pot as cheaply as possible without going to showdown. His hand doesn't look like an ace, and a jack looks less likely than a total bluff. It looks like a random hand that's trying to represent the ace. TL:DR version: as scary as it is to call with ten-high, Fedor's range includes almost no value that beats us, and a whole host of bluffs that we beat. Yes, there's still the chance of a random jack popping up, in which case we shake our head and take the L. But it's the correct call. I think Kudinov played a short stack and his position really well in this hand.
If Fedor thinks he is likely ahead with A high on the turn, then why would he need to bet larger? He just needs to bet enough to fold out Kudinov's junk. He knows Kudinov with call with a pair of 2 and draws.
@@AT-bw4cm Because Kudinov knows Fedor isn't putting him on a queen or king. With this knowledge, Kudinov might perceive Fedor's bet as the minimum required to make Kudinov fold a bad hand. The logical reason for Fedor to be attempting this is if his own hand is trash. Of course you could read this intent into a larger bet also, but there's one crucial difference - a larger bet could be perceived as an attempt to make Kudinov bluff off more of his chips. It gives Fedor some potential value. It's the kind of play he might make with trip kings - bet enough to potentially give Kudinov a tough decision for all of his chips on the river. I don't see him making the play he actually DID make with that hand - he's just giving Kudinov a chance to fold his trash (which he'd still have if facing a larger bet), but without the upside of putting him in a tough spot if he actually has something like a low pair. Put simply, I think Fedor's bet sizing rules out any possible value that Kudinov might credit him for.
@@H0lyMoley On the flop, if Fedor had an A then it would be reasonable for him to check, as he is likely ahead but still a marginal hand that could call a bet. If he had any other hand besides a small pair, then you would expect him to bet as the flop favors his SB raise range and because of other meta factors (4 handed, B vs B, ICM, chip lead, Fedor being a pro and Kudinov a rec.) If he was overbluffing, then I would expect him to bet this flop with his trash which he doesn't which shows he is still somewhat balanced even against a rec. A 1/3 pot bet on the turn with an A seems perfectly reasonable with the flop texture and action.
@@AT-bw4cm We might have to agree to disagree about this one. The key is the stack sizing. If Fedor makes a 3/4 pot bet and Kudinov calls, he's left with just over a pot-sized stack. With the bet sizing the Fedor actually chose, just over 1/3 pot-sized, Kudinov can call and be left with almost twice as many chips as there are in the pot. There's a huge difference there in terms of what Kudinov's future options are. So I agree - superficially the turn bet accomplishes the same thing whether Fedor bets big or small - but looking ahead, there's a massive difference if Kudinov makes the call.
What if fedor is protecting his A high’s by choosing this line and sizing knowing some draws will be priced in and some will call to try and steal it on the river anyway ? What if he did this with the intention of calling if any card 2-8 hit the river?
I think we should investigate for cheating.. This is ten high, even worse than jack high! (obviously i'm joking ppl.. )
Kudinov is a highstakes online cash crusher. NL5k+
He had the Tc blocker
@@mavriksc Right! and it's like.. "you got nothing! I thought you had Jack high!"
I’ve got to disagree with the analysis here. BvB + being the bigger stack with ICM gives Fedor a very wide range, and A high is heavily discounted by the turn bet, J high doesn’t need to bluff as it has showdown so T9 becomes a credible bluff catcher here, and a print if opponent is over bluffing (very easily done with so much air and likely true for Fedor)
That's what I said! Only... in two sentences rather than in four or five paragraphs. :) But yeah I completely agree with you. Stack sizes and position determine so much about each player's perceived range here. Fedor could have so many bluffs (having started with a straightforward blind steal) and very little value indeed.
Fedor should be jamming this river.
Stu Ungar did that shit 30 years ago.
Sb v bb, opening a wide range… does holz have more unpaired air below J-hi or Ax in his range as played to the river… the answer is the former. Great call and surprised the analysts are having such trouble understanding it.
It is a credible story for Ax… okay… that doesn’t mean we auto-fold lol you compare combos of Ax vs unpaired air below Jx that Holz opens sb vs bb 3 handed deep in a tourney with ICM considerations and plays this line with…
The equity graphic is wrong isn't it? Wouldn't 80% win + 7% tie = 83.5% equity?
What kind of range and frequencies would make this break even? Or is it more about what bluffs Holtz chooses. I think he can try to showdown JT9 highs. And shouldn't be accidentally beaten
Sorry guys, another long one. TL:DR version at the bottom.
I strongly disagree that Fedor plays an ace like this. And I kinda hate his turn sizing. It seems like a small mistake but it's actually a much larger one than it appears.
Here's why: I don't think Fedor assumes that a queen plays the hand the way Kudinov has on the flop. When a usually aggressive player like Fedor checks the flop, I think a queen on that stack size is going to bet to either try and induce Fedor to make a mistake, or take down the pot there and then. Not certain, but likely. There's not much that's beating us after that pre-flop action. Fedor has an extremely wide range when he's only up against one player with twenty-two big blinds. He could absolutely be trying to pick up the big blind for a low price with that preflop bet.
Now what does Kudinov think of Fedor's turn bet? He thinks that Fedor probably won't give him credit for the queen, since he hasn't bet the flop. It's all about the stack size. By betting so small, Fedor is limiting his options to induce Kudinov to go all-in on the river - Kudinov just has too many chips compared to the pot. If Fedor actually had something like a pair of eights (which makes sense given the play so far, assuming you're ok with his not betting the flop - which seems like a high-risk, low-reward move given that he's out of position, Kudinov might still have the king or queen, and Kudinov doesn't have a big chip stack to win), he's probably going to bet a bit bigger to either take down the pot (which again makes sense, there's a lot of scary river cards if you're a low or middle pair) or put Kudinov in a position where he has to risk a lot more on the river.
So, given all of the above, Fedor's low bet-sizing on the turn looks exactly as weak as it is. I think he bets at least $260k with any value at all. And "value" in this case most definitely includes an ace - again, he doesn't think he's up against a queen, and the likelihood of a king has gone down substantially now there are two of them on-board. So what's he afraid of? A low pair? Isn't this exactly the kind of hand that Fedor wants to fold out, or at least make Kudinov have to consider folding on the river due to his short stack?
If Kudinov is thinking like I'm thinking, the river decision is not a difficult one. Fedor has given him an opening with some mistaken bet-sizing. Kudinov is not scared of an ace, king or queen, and a ten would be a chop. So what's the risk here? If Fedor was trying to take down the flop with any two cards, his range is wide open. You might even assume (although this isn't a big consideration) that Fedor would consider a jack-high hand to be possible value on an AKKQ board. Yet Fedor's actions have indicated he's trying to take down the pot as cheaply as possible without going to showdown. His hand doesn't look like an ace, and a jack looks less likely than a total bluff. It looks like a random hand that's trying to represent the ace.
TL:DR version: as scary as it is to call with ten-high, Fedor's range includes almost no value that beats us, and a whole host of bluffs that we beat. Yes, there's still the chance of a random jack popping up, in which case we shake our head and take the L. But it's the correct call. I think Kudinov played a short stack and his position really well in this hand.
If Fedor thinks he is likely ahead with A high on the turn, then why would he need to bet larger? He just needs to bet enough to fold out Kudinov's junk. He knows Kudinov with call with a pair of 2 and draws.
@@AT-bw4cm Because Kudinov knows Fedor isn't putting him on a queen or king. With this knowledge, Kudinov might perceive Fedor's bet as the minimum required to make Kudinov fold a bad hand. The logical reason for Fedor to be attempting this is if his own hand is trash. Of course you could read this intent into a larger bet also, but there's one crucial difference - a larger bet could be perceived as an attempt to make Kudinov bluff off more of his chips. It gives Fedor some potential value. It's the kind of play he might make with trip kings - bet enough to potentially give Kudinov a tough decision for all of his chips on the river.
I don't see him making the play he actually DID make with that hand - he's just giving Kudinov a chance to fold his trash (which he'd still have if facing a larger bet), but without the upside of putting him in a tough spot if he actually has something like a low pair. Put simply, I think Fedor's bet sizing rules out any possible value that Kudinov might credit him for.
@@H0lyMoley On the flop, if Fedor had an A then it would be reasonable for him to check, as he is likely ahead but still a marginal hand that could call a bet. If he had any other hand besides a small pair, then you would expect him to bet as the flop favors his SB raise range and because of other meta factors (4 handed, B vs B, ICM, chip lead, Fedor being a pro and Kudinov a rec.) If he was overbluffing, then I would expect him to bet this flop with his trash which he doesn't which shows he is still somewhat balanced even against a rec. A 1/3 pot bet on the turn with an A seems perfectly reasonable with the flop texture and action.
@@AT-bw4cm We might have to agree to disagree about this one. The key is the stack sizing. If Fedor makes a 3/4 pot bet and Kudinov calls, he's left with just over a pot-sized stack. With the bet sizing the Fedor actually chose, just over 1/3 pot-sized, Kudinov can call and be left with almost twice as many chips as there are in the pot. There's a huge difference there in terms of what Kudinov's future options are.
So I agree - superficially the turn bet accomplishes the same thing whether Fedor bets big or small - but looking ahead, there's a massive difference if Kudinov makes the call.
First
Conglaturations.
What? Wow! Amazing! Insane!
Fedor should get the money back
This is just a simple fold, even shoving doesnt make sense
Solver says?
IF THIS WAS A GIRL THEY WOULD CALL HER A CHEAT