Get my FREE cheat sheets for Public Health, Epidemiology, Research Methods and Statistics (including transcripts of these lessons) here: www.learnmore365.com/courses/public-health-epidemiology-research-methods-and-statistics-resource-library
I put this up on LinkedIn and sent it out to some colleagues in the K-12 / adult education sector. Nice to see you giving a plug to USC, Greg. The Children's Hospital, Los Angeles, long one of my clients is an important partner to USC's Keck School of Medicine. So thanks for this great explanation!
Excellent basic epidemiology video professor Greg. It is important that concepts like this can be demonstrated in a simple way, especially in the current context, so that the population can better understand what is being proposed at the policy level. And what should be being proposed.
The sort of two part caveat I wished you'd added is that with a R0 of just under 1 the infection can still take a very, very long time to burn out. If you have 100 sick people (in a population large enough so that we can ignore adjusting the R0 after each infection) but you manage to do something short of vaccination that lowers the effective R0 (masks) to 0.9 you are still going to have a lot of people get sick before it's over- second wave 90 more people, third wave 81 more, forth wave about 73, etc. I know it's 8 months later and a lot more people are sick, but people aren't understanding how important getting the vaccination rate super high is and how valuable masks are until we get the infection rate way, way down (to the point where we are at least able to do contact tracing reasonably). And following from that how much larger of a pool of infected people that leaves over time and how many more opportunities letting the pandemic run longer gives the virus to mutate to something that the vaccines might be less effective against. My nightmare is we get to the point where everyone who will accept a vaccine is vaccinated, but it stays endemic, or has a high enough R0 so that it has time to mutate to get around the vaccines enough so that the R0 goes back above 1.
Thank you, Dr., Martin, it was very informative, and it shows how important it will be for the general population to get the SARS-CoV2 vaccine. Unfortunately, there will be barriers. A video suggestion would be to analyze the barriers related to vaccination, the overall importance of vaccination during an outbreak. It would be interesting to see how vaccines have improved/worsen over the years. Additionally, show some hypothetical statistical analysis, if 100% effective, on the benefit a vaccine can be as a matter of public health safety.
maybe it's just as well we have some people that don't want it - if everyone would kill to get one - can you imagine the pandemonium amidst the pandemic?
I was wondering this myself and would like to know the number of people who are anti-vax. I found this report which some might find interesting: ourworldindata.org/vaccination#public-support-and-skepticism
Another great video with clear concise explanation of R0 and vaccine coverage. I would like to know once the vaccine coverage has been established, what calculation is used to account for the vaccine not being 100% effective?
According to a research from 2017 i found on cdc website (you can find it using phrase "R0 and vaccination campaigns") , if vaccines aren't 100% effective, they don't reduce the spread of covid, and can even increase it in certain cases (depends on other factors that make parts of population unsusceptible to the virus). There isn't much information to find, that explains R0 and vaccines that aren't 100% effective, i think it's because such vaccines have a negative effect, they increase the susceptible population part and that makes covid spread more (i compared it myself with a situations when there ar lockdows etc. for unvaccinated). My thoughs, such situations with vaccines that aren't 100% effective aren't described much, because such vaccines don't reduce spreading at all. It's said so in some researches, but calculation aren't given because they shouldn't even be considered.
Hi, nice video 🙂 5:04 what about if the vaccine coverage in only a specific age group is lower than 60% (while the rest of the population is well above 60%), would that keep the pandemic going indefinitely? Specifically, young people, who also go out the most etc and are more likely to interact with other people their age.
A question - if isolation makes people unsusceptible to virus, but vaccinated people are susceptible to it, isn't it that vaccination increases spread of covid, if forced isolation is attributed only to unvaccinated people? In such a case the susceptible population is increasing with every vaccinated person, thus making covid spread more... Any thoughts? Asking because in my country we had forced isolation for unvaccinated people, and R value was lower before vaccines, it started increasing only after vaccination started. This makes me think that vaccination is the main reason why covid spreading increased. Another question - i understand that this video shows only what happens in case vaccines give immunity (make people unsusceptible to virus), what turned out to be false in case of covid vaccines... Is there a video that shows what happens with R value when vaccines don't give immunity?
You speak so fast it's almost as if you're on fast forward, hard to keep up, is it possible to slow down? Is it caffeine or trying to go fast intentionally? Face Time or something?
I kept up just fine and I am thankful I didn't have to waste 30 minutes to an hour to get a clear picture and point of what is being said unlike so many other videos on youtube.
Get my FREE cheat sheets for Public Health, Epidemiology, Research Methods and Statistics (including transcripts of these lessons) here: www.learnmore365.com/courses/public-health-epidemiology-research-methods-and-statistics-resource-library
I’ve come back to this several times. You’ve made it much clearer. Thanks 🙏.
You are most welcome.
I put this up on LinkedIn and sent it out to some colleagues in the K-12 / adult education sector. Nice to see you giving a plug to USC, Greg. The Children's Hospital, Los Angeles, long one of my clients is an important partner to USC's Keck School of Medicine. So thanks for this great explanation!
Thanks for sharing ‼️👍🏻👍🏻
Thanks for sharing ‼️👍🏻👍🏻
Excellent basic epidemiology video professor Greg. It is important that concepts like this can be demonstrated in a simple way, especially in the current context, so that the population can better understand what is being proposed at the policy level. And what should be being proposed.
Thanks for the great comment.
The sort of two part caveat I wished you'd added is that with a R0 of just under 1 the infection can still take a very, very long time to burn out. If you have 100 sick people (in a population large enough so that we can ignore adjusting the R0 after each infection) but you manage to do something short of vaccination that lowers the effective R0 (masks) to 0.9 you are still going to have a lot of people get sick before it's over- second wave 90 more people, third wave 81 more, forth wave about 73, etc.
I know it's 8 months later and a lot more people are sick, but people aren't understanding how important getting the vaccination rate super high is and how valuable masks are until we get the infection rate way, way down (to the point where we are at least able to do contact tracing reasonably).
And following from that how much larger of a pool of infected people that leaves over time and how many more opportunities letting the pandemic run longer gives the virus to mutate to something that the vaccines might be less effective against. My nightmare is we get to the point where everyone who will accept a vaccine is vaccinated, but it stays endemic, or has a high enough R0 so that it has time to mutate to get around the vaccines enough so that the R0 goes back above 1.
Thanks, very informative. And I thought the R was a correlation coefficient.
Thank you, Dr., Martin, it was very informative, and it shows how important it will be for the general population to get the SARS-CoV2 vaccine. Unfortunately, there will be barriers. A video suggestion would be to analyze the barriers related to vaccination, the overall importance of vaccination during an outbreak. It would be interesting to see how vaccines have improved/worsen over the years. Additionally, show some hypothetical statistical analysis, if 100% effective, on the benefit a vaccine can be as a matter of public health safety.
Fascinating video.
Wondering whether we can get close to 60% with the current attitude towards vaccines (mmr, antivaxx etc)
Agree. Antivax campaign has started and we don’t even have a vaccine yet
maybe it's just as well we have some people that don't want it - if everyone would kill to get one - can you imagine the pandemonium amidst the pandemic?
I was wondering this myself and would like to know the number of people who are anti-vax. I found this report which some might find interesting: ourworldindata.org/vaccination#public-support-and-skepticism
Beautiful video with precise explanation, as always! Thank you.
Glad you liked it! - let me know what other videos you'd like me to make and I'll get on it.
Glad you liked it! - let me know what other videos you'd like me to make and I'll get on it.
Thanks for the information Sir Martin...
Another great video with clear concise explanation of R0 and vaccine coverage. I would like to know once the vaccine coverage has been established, what calculation is used to account for the vaccine not being 100% effective?
According to a research from 2017 i found on cdc website (you can find it using phrase "R0 and vaccination campaigns") , if vaccines aren't 100% effective, they don't reduce the spread of covid, and can even increase it in certain cases (depends on other factors that make parts of population unsusceptible to the virus).
There isn't much information to find, that explains R0 and vaccines that aren't 100% effective, i think it's because such vaccines have a negative effect, they increase the susceptible population part and that makes covid spread more (i compared it myself with a situations when there ar lockdows etc. for unvaccinated). My thoughs, such situations with vaccines that aren't 100% effective aren't described much, because such vaccines don't reduce spreading at all. It's said so in some researches, but calculation aren't given because they shouldn't even be considered.
amazing! thank you
Thank you for given us alot og information
You are most welcome!
Nice and informative 👍
Thanks.
Can anyone share with me the formula for normal people to calculate Ro..esp for covid 19 cases. Just curious
Hi, nice video 🙂 5:04 what about if the vaccine coverage in only a specific age group is lower than 60% (while the rest of the population is well above 60%), would that keep the pandemic going indefinitely? Specifically, young people, who also go out the most etc and are more likely to interact with other people their age.
This is really useful
Hi how are you? if we have any queries or need help in regards to some of the videos you talk about, do you possibly have an email to send it to?
What happens when the R0 goes over 10 like it is now with Omicron?
A question - if isolation makes people unsusceptible to virus, but vaccinated people are susceptible to it, isn't it that vaccination increases spread of covid, if forced isolation is attributed only to unvaccinated people? In such a case the susceptible population is increasing with every vaccinated person, thus making covid spread more... Any thoughts? Asking because in my country we had forced isolation for unvaccinated people, and R value was lower before vaccines, it started increasing only after vaccination started. This makes me think that vaccination is the main reason why covid spreading increased.
Another question - i understand that this video shows only what happens in case vaccines give immunity (make people unsusceptible to virus), what turned out to be false in case of covid vaccines... Is there a video that shows what happens with R value when vaccines don't give immunity?
❤️️💛✌️
You speak so fast it's almost as if you're on fast forward, hard to keep up, is it possible to slow down? Is it caffeine or trying to go fast intentionally? Face Time or something?
I kept up just fine and I am thankful I didn't have to waste 30 minutes to an hour to get a clear picture and point of what is being said unlike so many other videos on youtube.