You didn’t mention the single most important factor: Unemployment. Unemployment went from 5.7% in January to 6.8% in November 2024 (December numbers are out tomorrow) and is starting to accelerate. If unemployment continues to rise, the impact of most of the other factors you mentioned (i.e. housing starts, new mortgage rules, etc.) will be minimal. The labour market will take hold, both in terms of sentiment, as well as stress for mortgage-holders and homeowners. If you are watching anything, it should be unemployment and the labour market.
I think it’s important for Canadians to learn the meaning of negative amortization as this will be the cause of not only a loss in investment, but being tied to that investment by the neck
I think you also forgot to add that even though people were stress tested 5 years ago…. Inflation over those 5 years was not accounted for so life is more expensive in general so it’s not just what the new rate is vs the stress tested amount.
Renewal rates will be almost 1% lower than the stress test rate from 5 years ago. If rates were over 6% in 2025, I would be really worried. Low or mid 4's seems manageable. People will have to adjust where they are spending their money.
@@TomStoreyoh I agree people need to adjust their spending, I’m just getting at the fact it’s not as simple as they were stress tested at a rate lower than they expect to renew at.. it’s a bit more nuanced then that.
If you know what is required to send prices higher and higher then you know what will send prices lower and lower. Where do you think we are? Most of RUclipsrs and most highly leveraged in this market have never seen anything but FOMO. Be very careful who you get advice from!
With so many factors that can potentially crash the market, buying a house for a FTHB as an end user is extremely scary. Feels like catching a falling knife that might start falling at a faster pace and even with the economy and jobs there's no certainty. Just cant win on any front 🫤
I think it’s important for Canadians to learn the meaning of negative amortization as this will be the cause of not only a loss in investment, but being tied to that investment by the neck
You didn’t mention the single most important factor: Unemployment. Unemployment went from 5.7% in January to 6.8% in November 2024 (December numbers are out tomorrow) and is starting to accelerate.
If unemployment continues to rise, the impact of most of the other factors you mentioned (i.e. housing starts, new mortgage rules, etc.) will be minimal. The labour market will take hold, both in terms of sentiment, as well as stress for mortgage-holders and homeowners.
If you are watching anything, it should be unemployment and the labour market.
Of course. I had that in my notes and it was so obvious I somehow forgot to include it. Thanks for commenting.
does me having four jobs count as 4 employed Canadians? #tryingtofeedthreekids #pierreforpremier #nosundaysoff
And those number are bs, all the jobs highered were government infa t last 3 years mostly, its probably highest unemployment since ww11
Love the analysis as always, Tom. 🔥
I think it’s important for Canadians to learn the meaning of negative amortization as this will be the cause of not only a loss in investment, but being tied to that investment by the neck
So much uncertainty 😢
Haws only go up 📈
They are removing stress testing for mortgage renewals .
CONDO MARKET IN TROUBLE 40 THOUSAND NEW CONDOS WILL GO ON THE MARKET THIS YEAR MY THOUGHTS CONDOS WILL DROP . GOOD LUCK TO ALL.2025 🎉🎉😅😅😅😊😊😊
Congrats on 16.7k subs, eat your heart out, Karrasch, with 16.3k.
Surrey Steve is over 17K!
you're right, I misread the subs on his channel! You have some work to do
I think you also forgot to add that even though people were stress tested 5 years ago…. Inflation over those 5 years was not accounted for so life is more expensive in general so it’s not just what the new rate is vs the stress tested amount.
Renewal rates will be almost 1% lower than the stress test rate from 5 years ago. If rates were over 6% in 2025, I would be really worried. Low or mid 4's seems manageable. People will have to adjust where they are spending their money.
@@TomStoreyoh I agree people need to adjust their spending, I’m just getting at the fact it’s not as simple as they were stress tested at a rate lower than they expect to renew at.. it’s a bit more nuanced then that.
They were stress tested at a higher rate, not lower. Lots of variables. Not convinced it crashes the market. Heard the same thing last year.
Oh yah higher, wishful thinking there😅.
Oh I don’t think it will crash… just don’t expect to see 5%+ returns on average for awhile.
@@kazmaNjr it’s anyone’s best guess! Thanks for watching and commenting.
Buy property and collect rent payments. This model works
So people are going to spend 5000 moving to save 1500 per year?
Get your friends to help move! Does not need to be that expensive.
@tomSorey i get my friends nice meal which cost less than $200 😅
@@TomStorey I don't live in a basement. Some people like to live in a home and have a job that pays more than a mover would charge
I reached out to you through dm if you are looking for a professional editor
If you know what is required to send prices higher and higher then you know what will send prices lower and lower. Where do you think we are? Most of RUclipsrs and most highly leveraged in this market have never seen anything but FOMO. Be very careful who you get advice from!
With so many factors that can potentially crash the market, buying a house for a FTHB as an end user is extremely scary. Feels like catching a falling knife that might start falling at a faster pace and even with the economy and jobs there's no certainty. Just cant win on any front 🫤
Tesla BoxAble
that's a tin can trailer with a composting toilet and solar panels lol
@DummMoney-rr1fi same with most 1BR condo for $2000 a month 😆
@@Bittersweet721 can't disagree with you
Stress test that was done on 5% basis a few years ago was before all the inflation and deterioration of purchasing power
I think it’s important for Canadians to learn the meaning of negative amortization as this will be the cause of not only a loss in investment, but being tied to that investment by the neck